Regionalism in South Korean National Assembly Elections: A Vote Components Analysis of Electoral Change* Eric C. Browne and Sunwoong Kim Department of Political Science Department of Economics University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee University of Wisconsin- Milwaukee
[email protected] [email protected] July 2003 * This paper was originally presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 29 August – 2 September, 2001. We acknowledge useful comments and suggestions by the session participants, Ronald Weber and anonymous referees. Abstract We analyze emerging regionalism in South Korean electoral politics by developing a “Vote Components Analysis” and applying this technique to data from the eleven South Korean National Assembly elections held between 1963 and 2000. This methodology allows us to decompose the change in voting support for a party into separate effects that include measurement of an idiosyncratic regional component. The analysis documents a pronounced and deepening regionalism in South Korean politics since 1988 when democratic reforms of the electoral system were fully implemented. However, our results also indicate that regional voters are quite responsive to changes in the coalitions formed by their political leaders but not to the apparent mistreatment of, or lack of resource allocations to, specific regions. Further, regionalism does not appear to stem from age-old rivalries between the regions but rather from the confidence of regional voters in the ability of their “favorite sons” to protect their interests and benefit their regions. JEL Classification: N9, R5 Keywords: Regionalism, South Korea, Elections, Vote Components Analysis 2 1. INTRODUCTION The history of a very large number of modern nation-states documents a cyclical pattern of territorial incorporation and disincorporation in their political development.