September 2014

Monthly Forecast

2 Status Update since our Overview August Forecast 4 Counter-Terrorism 5 Afghanistan The US will hold the presidency of the Council Special Representative and head of the UN in September. Using the opportunity of the high- Mission in Liberia (UNMIL); 7 Iran level segment of the general debate at the Gen- • developments in the Middle East, by Special 8 Syria eral Assembly, the US is planning a summit-level Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Pro- 10 UNDOF (Golan Heights) meeting on the threats to international peace and cess Robert Serry; 11 Libya security posed by foreign terrorist fighters. US • the humanitarian situation in Syria, by Under- President Barack Obama will preside with Secre- Secretary-General for Humanitarian A"airs 13 Sudan and South Sudan tary-General Ban Ki-moon expected to brief and and Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie a resolution is likely as an outcome. Amos; 14 Central African Republic An open debate on children and armed con- • the situation in Libya, by Bernardino León, flict is also planned with briefings by Special Rep- the new Special Representative and head of 15 Liberia resentative for Children and Armed Conflict Lei- the UN Support Mission in Libya; and 17 Haiti la Zerrougui, as well as possibly representatives of • the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, by its 18 Children and Armed UNICEF and the Department for Peacekeeping chair, Ambassador Eugène-Richard Gasana Operations (DPKO). (Rwanda). 20 Notable Dates Debates will be held on: Briefings in consultations are likely on: • Haiti, with a briefing by Special Representative • Syria’s chemical weapons by Sigrid Kaag, Spe- and head of the UN Stabilization Mission in cial Coordinator of the Organisation for the Haiti Sandra Honoré; and Prohibition of Chemical Weapons-UN Joint • Afghanistan, with a briefing by Special Repre- Mission; and sentative and head of the UN Assistance Mis- • developments in the Golan Heights and the sion in Afghanistan Ján Kubiš. latest Secretary-General’s report on the UN Council members are planning to hold an Disengagement Observer Force by Under- informal interactive dialogue with Thabo Mbeki, Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- chair of the AU High-Level Implementation Pan- tions Hervé Ladsous. el, on Sudan-South Sudan issues. A formal session will be needed to adopt a A briefing is expected on the work of the 1737 resolution renewing the mandate of UNMIL. Iran Sanctions Committee, by its chair, Ambas- Throughout the month members will be fol- sador Gary Quinlan (Australia). lowing closely events in Central African Republic, Briefings, followed by consultations, are Iraq and Ukraine, as well as in Gaza and Israel expected on: and additional meetings may be scheduled. • • the situation in Liberia, by Karin Landgren,

29 August 2014 This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org.

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Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our August Forecast

Iraq situation in Arsal and the threats Lebanon is consultations on South Sudan on 6 August On 4 August, under “any other business”, facing due to the war in neighbouring Syria (S/PV.7235). Assistant Secretary-Gener- Council members were briefed by Deputy and the need for Lebanon to fill the o#ce of al for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Special Representative György Busztin via the president, which has been vacant since Mulet briefed on the recent UNMISS video-teleconference on the deteriorating 25 May. On 26 August, the Council adopted report (S/2014/537) and events that have humanitarian and security situation in Iraq resolution 2172, extending the mandate of transpired in the country since the report’s due to the o"ensive by the Islamic State of UNIFIL for one year, until 31 August 2015. publication on 25 July. Ambassador Joseph Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). Council mem- Moum Malok, the Deputy Permanent Rep- bers issued a press statement the next day Ukraine resentative of South Sudan, addressed the deploring ISIS attacks, condemning the per- On 5 August the Security Council held a Council after Mulet. Also on 6 August, the secution of minorities, recalling that such public meeting on the situation in Ukraine Council issued a press statement condemn- widespread and systematic attacks could con- with a briefing by John Ging, Director of ing attacks that led to the deaths of at least stitute a crime against humanity and calling the Coordination and Response at the six humanitarian workers in Upper Nile for accountability and an inclusive political O#ce for the Coordination of Humanitar- state (SC/11512). The Council adopted a process (SC/11509). On 7 August, Coun- ian A"airs (S/PV.7234). On 8 August, Ivan presidential statement on 8 August in which cil members were briefed again by Assistant Šimonović, Assistant Secretary-General for it expressed concern at the political, secu- Secretary-General for Political A"airs Tayé- Human Rights, briefed the Council (via rity and humanitarian situation in South Brook Zerihoun in emergency consultations video-teleconference) on the human rights Sudan and expressed “its readiness to con- on the ongoing ISIS o"ensive that had begun situation and the latest UN Human Rights sider, in consultation with relevant partners, to threaten the peshmerga forces of the Kurd- Monitoring Mission Report (S/PV.7239). including IGAD and the African Union, all istan Regional Government in Nineveh prov- On 18 August, Ukraine was discussed under appropriate measures, including targeted ince, where a large number of minorities live. “any other business”; Russia requested an sanctions, against those who take action that Council members issued a press statement update regarding the implementation of res- undermines the peace, stability, and secu- later that day, strongly reiterating its messag- olution 2166 on the downing of Malaysia rity of South Sudan” (S/PRST/2014/16). On es from 5 August (SC/11515). On 13 August, Airline flight 17. On 22 August, following 27 August, Council members issued a press Council members issued another press state- the entrance of the Russian humanitarian statement condemning the downing of an ment welcoming the nomination of Prime convoy to Ukraine, Council members held UNMISS helicopter near Bentiu in Unity Minister-designate Haider al-Abadi and consultations at the request of Lithuania. State (SC/11538). urged the swift formation of the Iraqi gov- Assistant Secretary-General for Political ernment (SC/11519). Finally, on 15 August A"airs Oscar Fernández-Taranco briefed at Burundi the Council adopted resolution 2170 listing both the 18 and 22 August meetings. On 28 On 6 August, the Council was briefed by the six individuals a#liated with ISIS (operating August, Under-Secretary-General for Politi- Special Representative and head of BNUB, in Iraq and Syria) and al-Nusra (operating in cal A"airs Je"rey Feltman briefed the Secu- Parfait Onanga-Anyanga (S/PV.7236) on the Syria) under the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida sanc- rity Council at an emergency, public meet- latest BNUB report (S/2014/550). Onanga- tions regime in an attempt to cut o" funding ing requested by Lithuania, following reports Anyanga expressed his continuing concern to these groups (SC/11521). that Russian tanks and military vehicles have about deep political divisions in the coun- gone into southeastern Ukraine (S/PV.7253). try, the lack of political dialogue on major Lebanon national issues and restrictive laws on free- On 4 August the Security Council issued DPRK (North Korea) dom of expression. He added that prepara- a press statement which condemned the On 5 August, Council members were briefed tions were underway to withdraw BNUB by attacks by violent extremist groups against in consultations by the chair of the 1718 31 December. the Lebanese forces in the area of Arsal DPRK Committee, Ambassador Gary Quin- beginning on 2 August 2014; appealed to all lan (Australia) on the quarterly update on Israel/Palestine Lebanese parties to preserve national unity in the North Korean sanctions. On 20 August, On 6 August, Council members discussed a the face of attempts to undermine the coun- under “any other business”, Council mem- draft resolution on Gaza, put in blue by Jor- try’s stability, consistent with their commit- bers discussed the 18 August DPRK request dan, under “any other business”. The draft ment in the Baabda Declaration; and stressed for the Council to hold an urgent meeting was discussed several times over the course that e"ective implementation of resolution on the US-Republic of Korea joint military of the month but has not been put to a vote. 1701 remains crucial to ensuring stability in exercises (S/2014/604). (The DPRK’s letter Since the Jordanian draft went into blue, two Lebanon (SC/11507). On 14 August Council was a follow-up to the same request it made other proposed drafts have been discussed— members met with UNIFIL troop-contrib- on 21 July [S/2014/512].) Council members one drafted by France, the UK and Germa- uting countries (S/PV.7241). On 20 August, were not in favour of holding such a meeting. ny, and another drafted by the US. On 18 Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping August Special Coordinator for the Middle Operations Edmond Mulet briefed Coun- South Sudan East Peace Process Robert Serry briefed the cil members on the work of UNIFIL, the The Council held a briefing followed by Council, warning that “the slide towards a

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 Status Update since our August Forecast (con’t) state of permanent conflict and hopelessness Ambassador Rahamtalla Mohamed Osman the open debate (S/2014/572). must be halted at once,” and that the restive Elnor (Sudan) addressed the Council after situation in the West Bank and East Jerusa- Chambas. On 27 August, the Council adopt- Guinea-Bissau lem, together with the Gaza crisis serve as a ed resolution 2173 renewing the mandate Council members were briefed in consul- bleak warning of what the future may bring of UNAMID for 10 months. The same day, tations on 26 August by Under-Secretary- if the current negative trend towards a one- Council members received a briefing in con- General of Political A"airs Je"rey Feltman state reality is not reversed (S/PV.7243). The sultations on the work of the 1591 Sudan on the restoration of constitutional order in briefing was followed by consultations. On Sanctions Committee from its chair, Ambas- Guinea-Bissau (S/2014/603). In light of the 20 August Council members discussed the sador Maria Cristina Perceval (Argentina). successful electoral process and installation Gaza conflict again under “any other busi- of the new government this was the final ness” following the 19 August collapse of an Visiting Mission Secretary-General’s report pursuant to res- Egyptian-brokered ceasefire. Afterwards, ele- Between 8-13 August, Council members olution 2048 (S/2014/600 and S/2014/601). ments to the press were read in which mem- undertook a visiting mission to Europe and The Council agreed that further relevant bers of the Council expressed grave concern Africa (S/2014/579). On 19 August, Australia, updates would be included in the semi-annu- at the return to hostilities, called upon the Chile, the US and the UK briefed the Coun- al UNIOGBIS report. parties to prevent the situation from escalat- cil on the legs of the visiting mission that they ing and to reach an immediate humanitar- co-led to Belgium, The Hague, South Sudan Sahel ian ceasefire and o"ered full support to the and Somalia, respectively (S/PV.7245). On 27 August, the Council adopted a Egyptian initiative. presidential statement on the Sahel (S/ Mali PRST/2014/17). The adoption occurred DRC On 18 August, Council members con- more than two months after the Council’s 19 On 7 August, in a debate (S/PV.7237) demned a suicide attack in Ber which killed June briefing by Special Envoy to the Sahel chaired by Mark Simmonds, the UK Under- two Burkinabe MINUSMA peacekeepers Hiroute Guebre Sellassie (S/PV.7203). The Secretary of State for Foreign and Com- and injured seven (SC/11523). statement encouraged greater cooperation monwealth A"airs, the Council was briefed among stakeholders to implement the UN’s by Special Representative and the head of Protection of Civilians Sahel strategy and with the O#ce of the Spe- MONUSCO Martin Kobler on the lat- On 19 August, the Council held a briefing cial Envoy. It further changed the reporting est MONUSCO report (S/2014/450). The on the protection of humanitarian workers in cycle on the implementation of the UN’s outgoing Special Envoy to the Great Lakes recognition of World Humanitarian Day (S/ Sahel strategy, requesting the next report by Region, Mary Robinson, and Angola’s Min- PV.7244). Briefers included UN Deputy Sec- 30 November 2015. ister of Defence João Manuel Gonçalves retary-General Jan Eliasson, President of the Lourenço, in his capacity as representative International Committee of the Red Cross Kosovo of the Chair of the International Conference Peter Maurer, and Mashood Karokhail, the On 29 August, the Council held a quarterly of the Great Lakes Region, also addressed Director of The Liason O#ce. The UK circu- debate on Kosovo with a briefing by Farid the Council. On 20 August, Ambassador lated a concept note in advance of the brief- Zarif, the Special Representative and head Dina Kawar (Jordan), the chair of the 1533 ing (S/2014/571). At press time, the Council of UNMIK, on the latest UNMIK report DRC Sanctions Committee, briefed Coun- was negotiating a draft resolution as a follow- (S/2014/558). cil members in consultations on the activi- up to the briefing. ties of the Committee and the Group of Ye m e n Experts’ midterm report (S/2014/428). On Conflict Prevention On 29 August, Council members were 26 August, Council members issued a press On 21 August, the Council held an open briefed in consultations by Special Adviser statement rea#rming their support for the debate on conflict prevention with Secre- Jamal Benomar. Benomar’s briefing focused swift neutralisation of the Forces Démocra- tary-General Ban Ki-Moon and High Com- on the crisis gripping Yemen since 18 August tiques de Libération du Rwanda as a top prior- missioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay when mass protests started in Sana’a and ity in bringing stability to the DRC and the briefing (S/PV.7247). More than 50 mem- other cities following the call for demonstra- Great Lakes region (SC/11533). ber states participated in the open debate, tions by Abdulmalek al-Houthi, leather of the which lasted more than five hours. The Houthi (a Shi’a rebel group). He demanded Sudan (Darfur) Council unanimously adopted resolution the reinstatement of fuel subsidies and the On 7 August, the Council held a briefing, 2171, which requested the Secretary-Gen- dissolution of the government. The situa- followed by consultations, on Darfur (S/ eral to submit a report to the Council on tion threatened to derail the ongoing politi- PV.7238). Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the Joint actions taken to “promote and strengthen cal transition process. At press time, Council AU-UN Special Representative for Darfur conflict prevention tools within the United members were negotiating a draft presiden- and head of UNAMID, briefed the Council Nations system” by 31 August 2015. The tial statement on the situation. on the latest UNAMID report (S/2014/515). UK circulated a concept note in advance of

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Counter-Terrorism

Expected Council Action as well as the presence of training camps in radicalisation. It also expressed the Coun- In September, the Council expects to hold a Libya, to which many foreign fighters travel cil’s readiness to list individuals involved in summit meeting on the threat posed by for- before heading elsewhere to fight. In a 28 financing or facilitating the travel of foreign eign terrorist fighters. The US is President of May briefing, Quinlan highlighted how the terrorist fighters. The resolution also called the Council for the month, and US President ever-increasing trend towards recruitment of upon member states to supress this flow, Barack Obama will chair the meeting with foreign fighters has given Al-Qaida and its bring foreign terrorist fighters to justice and the Secretary-General expected to brief on a#liates a more global reach in a number of engage with those at risk of being recruited to the e"ect of this issue on current conflicts theatres of operation. The briefing recalled a discourage travel to Iraq and Syria. and the e"orts by the UN to address it. The January report by the Monitoring Team that The 19 August beheading of American adoption of a resolution is the likely outcome. stated how, in Syria large numbers of Al- journalist James Foley by ISIS was the latest Qaida a#liated foreign fighters and Jabhat- piece of evidence showing that the issue of Background al-Nusrah are creating associations based on foreign fighters, while not new, has become The issue of foreign terrorist fighters has a common language which “could see new acute, raising alarm among Council mem- been discussed in the Security Council in pan-Arab and pan-European networks of bers. (In a public video released by ISIS, the light of the recent unprecedented flow of extremists emerge” (S/2014/41). executioner has a distinct British accent.) fighters and the growth of facilitation net- A 14 April report of the Secretary-Gen- works fuelling conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, eral on the implementation of the Global Key Issues Libya, Mali, Syria, Yemen, the Horn of Africa Counter-Terrorism Strategy said that “the A key issue for the Council is devising an and elsewhere. According to the concept note flow of recruits from more than 50 Member e"ective global framework to address the circulated by the US ahead of the meeting, States to the Islamic State in Iraq and the growing challenges related to foreign terrorist foreign terrorist fighters “not only exacer- Levant and to other Al-Qaida a#liates over fighters. A related issue is to come up with an bate existing conflicts, but also often return the past two years has raised concerns about accurate definition of foreign terrorist fight- home possessing new skills and connections, their intentions should they return to their ers and to avoid the deliberate misuse of the increasing the threat of home-grown terror- home countries”. He also stressed that some label “terrorist” to identify non-state actors ist attacks”. terrorist groups might also see an opportu- challenging the authority of the government. There are already Council resolutions nity to deploy these foreign fighters against Another key issue is to identify and sanction that impose obligations on states to take more distant targets and how most states those sponsoring terrorism, facilitating and certain actions to suppress terrorism, such “lack the resources necessary to assess and financing the recruitment of foreign fighters. as criminalising the financing of terrorism monitor this threat” (A/68/841). In its review A further related issue is how to combine and the recruitment of members to terror- of the Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy, a coercive approach against terrorism with ist groups (resolution 1373 adopted under the General Assembly adopted on 13 June measures aimed at promoting non-violent Chapter VII on 28 September 2001) or call- a resolution expressing its concern “at the expression of political claims and reducing ing upon member states to criminalise the increasing flow of international recruits to sympathy and support for violent extremism. incitement to commit terrorist acts (reso- terrorist organisations, including foreign ter- Making sure that counter-terrorism activ- lution 1624 of 14 September 2005), but it rorist fighters, and at the threat it poses for ities worldwide are undertaken with due seems the US’s intention is to adapt and all Member States, including countries of ori- respect of international human rights norms, develop further this counter-terrorism gin, transit and destination” (A/RES/68/276). is an ongoing issue. framework to tackle the particular challeng- Four days later the Council unanimously es of foreign terrorist fighters. adopted resolution 2161 which expressed Options The issue of foreign terrorist fighters has concern at the flow of international recruits The Council could adopt a resolution: been part of the discussions of the 1267 to Al-Qaida and the scale of this phenom- • emphasising the need for states to have the and then the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanc- enon and reiterated further “the obligation tools and mobilise the resources to pre- tions Committee for over a decade and has of Member States to prevent the movement vent their citizens from becoming foreign been featured in reports from its Monitoring of terrorist groups”. terrorist fighters; and Analytical Support Team. Briefing the On 15 August, the Council unanimously • underscoring the critical needs both Council on 27 November 2013 as Commit- adopted resolution 2170, which specifically to counter violent extremism through tee chair, Ambassador Gary Quinlan (Aus- condemned the terrorist group Islamic State engagement with civil society and build- tralia), called attention to the operational of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the Al Nus- ing resilience among communities most contacts between terrorist entities in eastern rah Front (ANF) for the recruitment of for- at risk of recruitment and radicalisation; Libya and Al-Qaida a#liates in the Maghreb, eign terrorist fighters whose presence is exac- • threatening all state and non-state actors the Sahel, the Middle East and South Asia, erbating conflict and contributing to violent that are providing funding, weapons

UN DOCUMENTS ON FOREIGN TERRORIST FIGHTERS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2170 (15 August 2014) condemned the recruitment by ISIS and ANF of foreign terrorist S/RES/2161 (17 June 2014) renewed the measures targeting Al-Qaida associated individuals and entities. S/RES/2133 (27 January 2014) called on states not to pay ransom to terrorist kidnappers. S/RES/2129 (17 December 2013) renewed the mandate of CTED for four years. Security Council Letter S/2014/41 (22 January 2014) included the 15th report of the Monitoring Team. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7242 (15 August 2014) was the meeting when resolution 2170 was adopted. S/PV.7184 (28 May 2014) was a semi-annual General-Assembly Documents A/RES/68/276 (13 June 2014) was a resolution reviewing the UN Global Counter- Terrorism Strategy. A/68/841 (14 April 2014) was a report of the Secretary-General on the implementation of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 Counter-Terrorism (con’t)

or other kinds of support to terrorist this threat and provide recommendations issues generating unanimous support among groups—including through the payment to strengthen them. Council members. Although highly visible, of ransoms—with the imposition of sanc- recent Council outcomes on counter-ter- tions; and Council and Wider Dynamics rorism (such as resolution 2133 on kidnap- • requesting the Counter Terrorism Com- At the time when Council dynamics have for-ransom or resolution 2170) have not mittee Executive Directorate (CTED) and rendered the Council unable to overcome established new legal obligations on mem- the Monitoring Team of the 1267/1989 divisions on a number of pressing situations ber states as was the case, for example, with Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee to assess (e.g., Israel/Palestine, Syria and Ukraine), resolution 1373. national and multilateral e"orts to counter counter-terrorism appears to be one of the

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action Preliminary results from the runo" winner will serve as president, and the run- In September, the Council is scheduled to showed Ghani leading; however, on 18 June, ner-up, or a person he selects, will assume hold its quarterly debate on the UN Assis- Abdullah again complained of fraud, alleg- a new position, chief executive of the gov- tance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). ing that rampant ballot-stu#ng had occurred ernment. Within two years, a loya jirga, or Special Representative of the Secretary- in pro-Ghani districts. Abdullah announced meeting of tribal leaders, will be convened to General and head of UNAMA Ján Kubiš is that he would withdraw from the electoral determine whether the chief executive will be expected to brief. At press time, no Council process and demanded the vote-counting converted into a prime minister. outcome was anticipated. be stopped to allow the IEC to investigate In the ensuing weeks, tensions again flared UNAMA’s mandate expires on 17 March his claims of fraud. He also alleged that between the parties due to a lack of sub- 2015. one of the members of the IEC, Zia ul-Haq stantive progress in the audit and disagree- Amarkhel, was complicit in the malfeasance. ments on what constitutes an invalid vote. Key Recent Developments Amarkhel subsequently resigned on 23 June, Kerry returned to Kabul on 7 August and Afghanistan continues to face significant denying the accusations and stating that he convinced the parties to recommit to their political and security challenges. At press was resigning “in the national interest” while agreement of 12 July. The IEC announced time, the country remained engulfed in a calling on Abdullah to “end his boycott”. that as of 23 August approximately 67 per- political crisis, with the winner of the 14 June In an 18 June press statement, UNAMA cent of all the ballot boxes had been reviewed. presidential run-o" election yet to be decided. stated the electoral process “should con- (At press time, it remained unclear when the Meanwhile, over the past couple of months, a tinue as laid out in the laws passed by the audit would be concluded, and thus, who resurgent Taliban has stepped up its attacks National Assembly” (i.e., allegations of would be the next president.) in southern and eastern Afghanistan. fraud should be investigated only once the While the auditing continued, the political On 5 April, Afghanistan held presidential vote count is finalised). On 25 June, the climate in Afghanistan remained tense. On and provincial elections. Among the eight Council adopted a presidential statement 18 August, The New York Times ran a story presidential candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, in which it called on all stakeholders “to by Matthew Rosenberg headlined “Amid a former foreign minister, and Ashraf Ghani, engage with the electoral institutions and Election Impasse: Calls in Afghanistan for a former finance minister, received 45 per- processes with patience and respect, refrain an Interim Government,” which claimed cent and 31.5 percent of the vote, respec- from any acts that incite imminent vio- that high-ranking government o#cials were tively. The Independent Election Commis- lence…and to channel complaints through threatening a temporary seizure of power in sion (IEC) certified the first-round results the established institutional mechanisms in the hope that “the mere threat of forming on 15 May, despite Abdullah’s accusations line with Afghanistan’s electoral laws and an interim government would persuade the of fraud. On 15 May, the Council issued a constitution” (S/PRST/2014/11). country’s rival presidential candidates…to press statement welcoming the certification With the crisis unresolved, by 8 July some make compromises needed to end the crisis”. of the first round results by the IEC while Abdullah’s supporters started threatening to After demanding that Rosenberg reveal his underscoring the continued need to detect form their own government. US Secretary sources, the government first barred and later and prevent fraud (SC/11399). As neither of State John Kerry travelled to Afghanistan, demanded that Rosenberg leave Afghanistan, candidate got 50 percent of the vote, a runo" and on 12 July, brokered a deal between which he did on 21 August without compro- election between Abdullah and Ghani was Abdullah and Ghani. The deal called for an mising his sources. held on 14 June. audit of all votes cast in the election. The In recent months, extremists have ramped

UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2160 (17 June 2014) made minor adjustments to the Taliban sanctions regime. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2014/12 (25 June 2014) expressed concern with drug production in Afghanistan. S/PRST/2014/11 (25 June 2014) called on the parties to refrain from acts leading to violence in the electoral dispute. Security Council Press Statements SC/11476 (15 July 2014) condemned the terrorist attack in Paktika province. SC/11431 (6 June 2014) condemned SC/11399 and prevent fraud. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7208 (25 June 2014) was the most recent Council debate on Afghanistan.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Afghanistan (con’t) up e"orts to destabilise Afghanistan. On resolution 2160, which made minor adjust- political transition in Afghanistan, given the 6 June, at least 10 people died and several ments to the 1988 Taliban sanctions regime. recent turmoil in the electoral process. were injured in Kabul in a failed assassina- Among other things, the resolution decided As ISAF continues its drawdown and the tion attempt on Abdullah. Later that day, the that states should take appropriate measures insurgents step up their attacks, another key Council issued a press statement condemn- to prevent the Taliban from accessing impro- issue is the ability of Afghan security forces ing the attack (SC/11431). vised explosive devices and encouraged states to maintain security in the country. In late June, the Taliban launched several to make photographs and other relevant bio- Other key ongoing issues include the need attacks in northern Helmand province killing metric data on listed individuals available to to promote human rights and to fight drug or injuring more than 100 security personnel the 1988 Taliban Sanctions Committee and production and tra#cking in Afghanistan. and civilians. to INTERPOL. On 15 July, a car-bomb exploded in a Options market in Paktika province, reportedly kill- Human Rights-Related Developments The Council could consider adopting a ing at least 89 people. The Council issued a The UNAMA Human Rights Unit mid-year report resolution: press statement condemning the attack later • listing under the 1988 sanctions regime that day (SC/11476). additional Taliban leaders with responsi- Hashmat Khalil Karzai, a Ghani cam- bility for military operations; paign manager and relative of President • reiterating the need for the parties to Hamid Karzai, was assassinated on 29 July. casualties. UNAMA attributed 74 percent of all resolve the electoral crisis peacefully; and The violence continued in August. On 5 • encouraging e"orts by UNAMA and oth- August, in Camp Qargha, US Major Gen- er international actors to mediate the cur- eral Harold J. Greene was killed and 15 oth- rent electoral dispute. ers injured in a shooting. On 10 August, a international security forces and the remaining Another option, if the electoral dispute car-bomb hit an International Security Assis- casualties resulting primarily from the “explosive drags on, would be for the Council to hold - tance Force (ISAF) convoy in Kabul, killing an informal interactive dialogue with Abdul- ian casualties caused by improvised explosive four civilians and injuring an additional 35. lah and Ghani to get their perspectives on the It was reported on 19 August that up to deaths and injuries caused by ground engage- dispute and signal clearly to them the need to 700 Taliban extremists were engaged in com- engage constructively with electoral institu- bat with security forces in Logar province, tions and to honour their 12 July agreement. just south of Kabul province. particularly in areas with concentrated civilian populations. The trend of violence against aid work- Council Dynamics ers in Afghanistan has also continued. Two adopted the outcomes of the Universal Periodic The main concerns for Council members are aid workers from Finland were killed on 24 Review of Afghanistan with 224 recommenda- the electoral crisis and the insecurity caused July in Herat, and on 14 August, five ICRC by Taliban violence, including the toll that workers were kidnapped in the western Herat. addressed concerns by some delegations about this violence is taking on civilians. Some the implementation of the Convention against The ICRC workers were released unharmed members have noted that UNAMA’s role in on 20 August. providing mediation and good o#ces may be On 25 June, the Council held its most prohibited under national law and adding that the particularly useful at this particular juncture, recent debate on Afghanistan, with Kubiš special rapporteur on torture was scheduled to given the current political impasse. There is and Yuri Fedotov, Executive Director of the visit the country in November. also an understanding that the electoral dis- UN O#ce on Drugs and Crime, briefing (S/ HRC will consider the report of the Secretary- pute is linked to the security situation. Karzai PV.7208). Kubiš argued that Abdullah and has refused to sign a bilateral security agree- Ghani needed to demonstrate statesmanship which includes reference to Afghanistan for ment (BSA) with the US for post-2014 US to resolve the electoral impasse in a construc- allowing capital punishment for acts that accord- military engagement, and while both Abdul- tive way. Fedotov warned that “if…economic ing to international human rights jurisprudence do lah and Ghani have said they would sign the development declines and international aid is - agreement if elected, this cannot be done reduced along, with business confidence, the phemy (A/HRC/27/23). Afghanistan is also named until one of them is in o#ce. (The signing of reliance on the illicit economy will further as one of four states where armed groups imple- the BSA would also pave the way for NATO increase”. Along with the presidential state- to conclude its own security arrangement ment on the electoral impasse, the Council with Afghanistan.) also adopted a presidential statement at the Australia is the penholder on Afghanistan. debate expressing concern about drug pro- Key Issues duction in Afghanistan (S/PRST/2014/12). One key issue is what role the Council, and On 17 June, the Council adopted UNAMA, can play in facilitating a peaceful

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 Iran

Human Rights-Related Developments Expected Council Action President Hassan Rouhani, Foreign Minis- - In September, the chair of the 1737 Iran ter Mohammad Javad Zarif and Ali Akbar Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Gary Salehi, Vice President and chairman of the concern about the large number of executions Quinlan (Australia), is due to present his Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. It was quarterly briefing on the Committee’s work Amano’s first visit to Tehran since the sign- law. According to information gathered by the to the Council. ing of the Joint Statement on a Framework for Cooperation between Iran and the IAEA reportedly on death row for crimes they com- Key Recent Developments on 11 November 2013. They discussed how mitted while under the age of 18. Pillay also con- On 2 July, the sixth round of talks since Feb- to strengthen cooperation and dialogue demned the execution of political prisoners and ruary between Iran and the P5+1 (China, under the framework, including establish- urged Iran to immediately impose a moratorium France, Germany, Russia, the UK and the ing new practical measures. On 20 August, death penalty. US) commenced in Vienna in an attempt Amano sent the Council a letter attaching a to conclude a comprehensive agreement on recently published IAEA report that reveals - Iran’s nuclear programme before a 20 July that Iran has fulfilled its commitment in the cern over the recent escalation in the arrest and deadline. On 18 July, the parties announced JPA regarding its entire stockpile of 20 per- sentencing of individuals exercising their rights that they had agreed to extend the talks by cent enriched uranium by either diluting it - four months until 24 November. The Joint below 5 percent or converting it to a form Plan of Action (JPA), which was agreed to not suitable for further enrichment (GOV/ on 24 November 2013 and took e"ect on 20 INF/2014/19). The findings, first reported on sentenced. January, allowed for the possibility of up to a by the press on 20 July, further confirm that HRC will consider the report of the Secretary- six-month extension. Iran is also observing all its other commit- According to a statement released on 18 ments in the JPA. HRC/27/23). The report includes a reference July by US Secretary of State John Kerry, the The 1737 Iran Sanctions Committee has credible prospect of reaching an agreement not met since the chair’s 25 June briefing (S/ about its continued heavy reliance on the death warranted extending negotiations, although PV.7211). Its activities since the briefing have penalty to combat crimes that according to inter- national human rights jurisprudence do not meet “real gaps” remain. Under the terms of the included sending a letter to Iran on 10 July extension, Iran will convert all of its 20 per- about the Klos C incident. (The Klos C is a cent-enriched uranium into fuel. (The condi- Panama-flagged ship that departed Iran and and blasphemy. The report also notes that execu- tions of the original agreement called for only was interdicted by Israel in the Red Sea on tions relating to acts of terrorism or crimes of a half to be converted and for the other half 5 March 2014 with a shipment of rockets in political nature were carried out. to be diluted.) Once in fuel form, according violation of sanctions.) The letter included to the statement, it will be more di#cult for the Panel of Experts (PoE) incident report Key Issues Iran to use this material for a weapon in a on the case and requested Iran’s comments. Negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 are “breakout scenario”. Iran, in return, gained Work has also begun to update bio-identifiers the key issue for Council members, as the access to an additional $2.8 billion dollars of such as passport numbers and dates of birth Committee’s work has been almost complete- its frozen assets. of listed individuals, as recommended by the ly put on hold in light of the talks. Among outstanding di"erences, one of the PoE in its latest report (S/2014/394). During Another issue is Iran’s dialogue with the potentially most di#cult to reconcile is the the Committee’s discussions of the report in IAEA, which also includes discussion of nuclear enrichment capacity that Iran will June before the last briefing, Russia expressed outstanding questions about the past pos- retain. The US reportedly wants to restrict its opposition to the last four of the seven sible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear Iran to 10,000 centrifuges or fewer for its PoE recommendations, and China similarly programme. nuclear programme, while Iran says that it expressed its opposition to recommenda- At the Committee level, issues include requires much more than that total to meet tions four, five and six. (These were recom- continuing follow-up to the PoE’s recom- its long-term energy needs. In a 7 July speech, mendations about actions that states should mendations and to the Klos C incident report. supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said take related to dual-use goods, “typologies of that Iran’s “absolute need” is for 190,000 proliferation financing”, shipping/freight and Options “separative work units”, which would repre- front companies.) Given member states’ high interest in the JPA sent an increase of 10 to 20 times its existing The Council renewed the mandate of the process and some confusion over the status enrichment capacity. PoE on 9 June for one year (S/RES/2159). of Council sanctions during the talks, the The Director General of the International The next round of high-level discussions Committee could hold an open briefing to Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Yukiya Ama- will be held in September in New York on the explain the impact of a possible deal on Secu- no, visited Iran on 17 August, meeting with margins of the General Assembly. rity Council sanctions and the work that the

UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2159 (9 June 2014) extended the mandate of the PoE until 9 June 2015. S/RES/1737 (23 December 2006) imposed Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7211 Sanctions Committee Document S/2014/394IAEA DOCUMENT INFCIRC/855 (27 November 2013) was the communication received from the EU High Representative with the text of the 24 November JPA.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Iran (con’t)

Committee will need to carry out to review undermine the talks. The P3, usually the The timing of the chair’s briefing in Sep- or lift measures. toughest in the Council on Iran, have also tember could be sensitive as it may overlap A further option for the Committee is been cautious about Committee actions— with the high level P5+1 talks with Iran. issuing an Implementation Assistance Notice such as proposing new designations—that Elected Council members have expressed (IAN) on the Klos C case that highlights for could hurt the negotiations. However, small- frustration that they have had very little infor- member states the techniques employed by er steps that have been proposed that the P3 mation on the P5+1 process. Most Council Iran in shipping the banned rockets. would support—such as issuing an IAN on members highlighted at the last chair briefing the Klos C case—are considered likely to be that Council sanctions on Iran still remain Council and Wider Dynamics blocked by China or Russia, which perceive in force during negotiations. It seems they The Committee’s work has been very lim- them as also too provocative in light of the emphasised this point in response to the ited due to the continuing P5+1 negotiations negotiations. At the same time, the Commit- PoE’s latest report, which notes that some with Iran. Since the start of the JPA, China tee has not received any new incident reports, states have been confused by the status of and Russia, which have blocked Commit- which is in line with a trend identified in the UN sanctions. tee action in the past, have insisted that the PoE report that since mid-2013 there have The US is the penholder on Iran. Committee avoid any activities that could been fewer reported violations.

Syria

Expected Council Action a destruction plan for the 12 production access. She reported that since the adoption Early in the month, Sigrid Kaag, Special facilities in Syria—the facilities were to of resolution 2165, there had been five cross- Coordinator of the Organization for the Pro- have been destroyed by 15 March. On 18 border aid deliveries, some improvement in hibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)-UN August, the US announced that the destruc- access to Aleppo, Dar’a and rural Damas- Joint Mission, will brief Council members tion of declared priority chemicals on its cus and that medical supplies had reached a on the implementation of resolution 2118 ship, the Cape Ray, had been completed. number of opposition held areas. However, regarding the destruction of Syria’s chemical On 25 August, the Secretary-General said access continued to decline in government weapons. The OPCW-UN Joint Mission will that successor arrangements to the OPCW- and ISIS controlled areas and that key ele- come to a close on 30 September. UN Joint Mission were being established ments of resolution 2139 remained unimple- Under-Secretary-General for Humanitar- to carry out the remaining verification and mented, such as medical neutrality, ceasing ian A"airs Valerie Amos will brief the Council inspection activities under resolution 2118 aerial bombardments and easing administra- on humanitarian access pursuant to resolu- and that reporting to the Security Council tive hurdles. tions 2139 and 2165 in late September. would continue. Clashes between the Syrian government US President Barack Obama will pre- Meanwhile, the civil war in Syria contin- and ISIS have significantly increased after side over a summit-level Council meeting on ues unabated on its devastating course, with ISIS expanded into north-western Iraq in the threat posed by foreign terrorist fighters. a death toll now conservatively estimated at early June. The ISIS assault that began in While this issue is not specific to Syria, activi- over 191,000. There are 2.99 million refugees July around its self-proclaimed capital, Raqqa, ties by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham and 6.4 million internally displaced persons. culminated in their capture of the Tabqa air (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria are expected to be a Almost half of the population, 10.8 million, base on 24 August, depriving Syria of control prominent feature of the meeting. (For more require humanitarian assistance, and of those of its last military bastion in Raqqa province. details, please see the brief on Counter-Ter- 4.7 million are in hard-to-reach areas and US airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq rorism in this Monthly Forecast.) 241,000 in besieged areas. began on 8 August. While no such airstrikes Finally, 1 September is the first day of Amos visited Tehran on 17 August to dis- have occurred in Syria, on 25 August the US Sta"an de Mistura’s term as Special Envoy cuss the humanitarian crises in Syria with did authorise surveillance flights over Syria, for Syria. No meeting on the Syria political government o#cials saying that Iran had a focused on the border with Iraq. Some ana- track was planned at press time. very important role to help the UN and its lysts see this as a step towards US military partners gain access in Syria. action against ISIS targets in Syria. Syria has Key Recent Developments On 28 August, Assistant Secretary-Gen- said that any airstrike not coordinated with Kaag last briefed on 5 August, reporting eral for Humanitarian A"airs Kyung-wha Damascus would be considered aggression. that on 24 July, the OPCW had agreed to Kang briefed the Council on humanitarian On 15 August, the Council unanimously

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2170 S/RES/2165 (14 July 2014) and S/RES/2139 (22 February 2014) were on humanitarian access. S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) was on chemical weapons. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2014/14 (28 July 2014) was on illicit oil trade as a source of revenue Security Council Press Statement SC/11531 (22 August 2013) condemned the beheading of journalist James Foley by ISIS. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7252Secretary-General’s Reports S/2014/622 (25 August 2014) was on chemical weapons. S/2014/611 (21 August 2014) was on humanitarian access. Human Rights Council Document A/HRC/27/60

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 Syria (con’t) adopted resolution 2170, which condemned by the parties on the ground as a result of the generally despondent over how to have any ISIS and al-Nusrah Front for the recruitment gains accumulated by ISIS. meaningful role in ceasing the civil war in of foreign terrorist fighters. It also listed six An ongoing issue for the Council will be Syria. Recent activity by the Council has individuals a#liated with these groups under what further steps it might take if meaning- been limited to counter-terrorism e"orts, and the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida sanctions regime ful implementation of resolutions 2139 and the emergence of ISIS as a wider regional and expressed the Council’s readiness to list 2165 on humanitarian access, particularly by threat is likely to exacerbate that trend. others involved in financing or facilitating the the Syrian government, continues to lag. Council members have only recently travel of foreign terrorist fighters. approached the cross-pollination of ISIS in On 22 August, Council members issued a Options the crises in Iraq and Syria with the adop- press statement condemning the 19 August With the accountability track blocked after tion of a 28 July presidential statement pro- beheading of US journalist James Foley by the 22 May veto by China and Russia of the hibiting illicit oil trade as a source of revenue ISIS. ICC referral, the chemical weapons track for terrorists and the 15 August adoption of winding down and the humanitarian track resolution 2170 on ISIS and the al-Nusra Human Rights-Related Developments shifting to monitoring mode, September Front. While Russia has from the beginning seems to o"er, during the high-level week of the conflict taken the position that terror- of the General Assembly, an opportunity to ism was the greatest threat to international inmates at Aleppo Central Prison. Serious human galvanize Council energy toward progress on peace and security, the P3 in particular had - the political track. held firmly to the view that the real threat Council members could invite de Mistura was the Bashar al-Assad regime. In recent opposition groups during their year-long siege of to meet and discuss ways to revive the politi- months, with the proliferation of ISIS fight- cal process. Although largely superseded ers from Syria into Iraq and its expanding disappearance and starvation—constituting vio- by political realities on the ground, the 30 control of territory, strategic infrastructure, lations of international humanitarian law that may June 2012 Geneva Communiqué remains military hardware and natural resources, it amount to war crimes. the guiding document for a political solu- appears that the P3’s calculations have shift- tion. Council members could discuss with ed toward viewing ISIS as another primary of Discrimination against Women considered the de Mistura how his approach will di"er from threat on par with the Assad regime, bring- second periodic report of Syria (CEDAW/SYR/2). The Committee’s principal areas of concern those of his predecessors, Kofi Annan and ing them closer to the Russian position on included the exacerbation of violence against Lakhdar Brahimi. They could also discuss terrorism in Syria. As a result, it seems that whether his UN mandate (no longer a joint the counter-terrorism aspect of the conflict, consistent reports indicating that women activ- post with the Arab League) will provide any because it is easier to garner consensus in the latitude to move talks forward and how he Council, has overwhelmingly overshadowed physical abuse and sexual violence by govern- plans to implement the Secretary-General’s any serious thinking about how to revive the call to fully involve countries in the region, a stalled political track. veiled reference to Iran. The Secretary-General has reminded the and kidnappings against women and girls by all Council that the conflict cannot be reduced Council Dynamics to the problem of terrorism and foreign fight- Human Rights Council will consider the latest There has been no serious discussion among ers and that all concerned should not lose Council members about acting on the threat sight that the best way to stop terror is a polit- HRC/27/60) that accused government forces and in resolutions 2139 and 2165 to impose mea- ical solution. On the political track, Council ISIS of war crimes and crimes against humanity. sures for non-compliance. In fact, the mas- members will be interested in De Mistura’s sive e"ort that went into agreeing on resolu- preliminary plans for reviving the political Key Issues tion 2165 on cross-border access has shifted process, but few have expectations that any The key issue for the Council is to refocus down into monitoring mode. Similarly on bold plans that could positively impact the its attention in the fourth year of the con- the chemical weapons track, Council mem- situation in Syria will be forthcoming in the flict back to the original and overarching bers are likely to concentrate on monitoring near term. issue—finding ways to support a cessation of the remaining activities of the OPCW-UN France is the penholder on Syria overall, violence and resuscitate e"orts for a politi- joint mission, such as verification work, the while Australia, Jordan and Luxembourg are cal solution. destruction of production facilities and clari- the penholders on the humanitarian track. Another immediate issue is how to fying discrepancies of the chemical weapons In practice, however, most texts need to be address, and not exclusively through the lens stockpile declared by Syria. agreed between Russia and the US prior to of counter-terrorism, the mutually destabilis- Overall, crises in Gaza, Iraq and Libya agreement by the broader Council. ing impact of the crises in Iraq and Syria and have drawn attention away from Syria in the realignment of priorities and allegiances recent months. Council members seem

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 9 UNDOF (Golan Heights)

Expected Council Action The September report is likely to highlight one soldier and one civilian. Israel returned In September, Under-Secretary-General for the ongoing nature of the issues raised in the fire at two Syrian military positions. Forty- Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous June report as well as describe several major three peacekeepers were detained by armed will brief Council members in consultations incidents that have occurred since. opposition forces the next morning and on the UN Disengagement Observer Force On 2 June, a rocket landed over the Council members issued a press statement (UNDOF) report, due 12 September. No Alpha line near an Israeli military position, in response. There were similar incidents in outcome is anticipated. and Israeli forces retaliated with artillery fire March and May of 2013 and while peace- UNDOF was established in 1974 to mon- aimed toward the source of the rocket launch keepers were released safely, it did lead to a itor the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. Its in Syria. crisis of confidence and Austria withdrew its mandate expires on 31 December. On 23 June, Israel targeted nine Syrian troops. Recently, on 23 August, the Philip- army positions with tank fire and air strikes pine government announced it would with- Key Recent Developments after mortar fire from the Syrian side the draw its 331 peacekeepers from UNDOF Clashes between government forces and previous day killed an Israeli civilian. Israel’s when their tour ends in October due to the armed opposition groups are ongoing as assessment is that most of these incidents security situation. the civil war in Syria continues to adverse- are due to errant fire resulting from fighting When the Council last renewed UNDOF ly a"ect UNDOF’s area of operations and in Syria. Israel said that armed opposition on 25 June 2014, it drew attention to the increases the possibility of heightened ten- groups were probably responsible but that deteriorating situation on the ground as a sions between Israel and Syria. In response, its forces fired on Syrian military positions to result of spillover from the Syrian conflict the mission continues to focus on risk miti- stress that Syria was responsible for security and condemned the use of heavy weapons gation and enhanced self-defence capabilities. on its side of the ceasefire line. by government forces and armed opposi- UNDOF’s extremely challenging operational On 5 July a UN patrol was hit by a tank tion groups in the UNDOF area of separa- environment hampers its ability to operate as round, injuring two peacekeepers and on 7 tion. The Council called on all parties to the in the past. Many observation posts and UN July another UN patrol was fired upon. Like conflict to cease military activities through- positions have been vacated due to the secu- Israel, the UN considers most of these inci- out Syria, including in the UNDOF area of rity situation, and most observation tasks are dents to be the result of errant cross-fire operations. It also condemned the increased now carried out from static positions instead rather than direct targeting. However, some use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) of mobile patrols. Meanwhile, inspections of armed opposition groups tail UN convoys in that area. military equipment on the Alpha side (the to ease their own travel since government Additionally, the Council included new Israeli-occupied Golan) have mostly contin- forces know they are not to fire at the UN. language in the resolution calling on all par- ued on a normal basis with some increased This practice, while infrequent, increases the ties to cooperate with UNDOF operations, restrictions; such inspections on the Bravo chance that UN personnel will get caught in including the unimpeded delivery of equip- side (Syria) remain suspended. the cross-fire. ment. (Since March, an Irish counter-IED On 17 June, Council members met to There have also been clashes between the team has been in place, but Syria has not consider the 10 June UNDOF report, which government and armed opposition forces on given clearance for the team’s equipment to detailed continued violations of the cease- a strategic plateau near UNDOF observation enter the country.) Ladsous visited UNDOF fire line. The presence of government forces point 56 (OP56). On 15 July, the govern- on 22-23 June and reassured peacekeepers carrying out operations against armed oppo- ment deployed its forces and heavy weaponry of the Council’s unanimity in ensuring the sition groups in the UNDOF area of sepa- extremely close to OP56 and remained there mission had the resources to maximise the ration continued to interfere significantly at press time. In response, armed opposition safety of UNDOF personnel. Ladsous also with the safety of UNDOF personnel and groups have threatened to attack OP56 if met with government o#cials and stressed the mission’s freedom of movement (neither the government does not vacate the position. the importance of getting the counter-IED Israel nor Syria should have military forces These developments have exposed UNDOF equipment to UNDOF. Following Lad- in the area of separation under the terms of to the very real possibility of su"ering collat- sous’s visit, Syria cleared a majority of the the 1974 disengagement agreement). This eral damage during clashes. DPKO sent two equipment. However, the delivery of a few report indicated that UNDOF had begun to notes to the Security Council on 18 and 25 crucial components was still outstanding at observe that the more violent aspects of the July to keep members informed of events on press time. conflict were now evident in its area of opera- the ground. tions, including the use of airstrikes by the On 27 August, armed opposition forces Key Issues government, the use of heavy weapons and overran government forces at the Quneitra The spillover of the Syrian crisis into UND- captured military equipment by armed oppo- crossing on the Syrian side of the armistice OF’s area of operations and increased sition groups and the appearance of “black line. Stray mortars from the fighting land- ceasefire violations will continue to be of flags”—a symbol associated with the Islamic ed in or near UNDOF positions as well as primary concern to the Council. Military State of Iraq and al-Sham. on the Israeli side of the crossing, injuring forces are prohibited from entering the

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNDOF Security Council Resolution S/RES/2163 (25 June 2014) was the most recent renewal of UNDOF. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/401 (10 June OTHER RELEVANT FACTS UNDOF Force CommanderSize and Composition of MissionTroop Contributors

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 UNDOF (Golan Heights) (con’t) area of separation, yet Syria has done so in additional action. Another option would be to stability in the region in the absence of a response to the rebel presence. The fact that for the Council to adopt a statement reit- peace agreement between Israel and Syria. armed opposition groups now possess heavy erating the need for all parties to exercise However, its utility is particularly high now weapons in the area of operations will also be restraint, express concern for the safety and in order to avoid further negative security a key concern. security of UNDOF personnel, call for the implications for the region. In this regard, A continuing key issue will be the safe- elimination of obstacles to UNDOF’s free- most Council members are keen to main- ty and security of UN personnel, given the dom of movement and urge Syria to expe- tain good relationships with troop-contrib- proximity of UNDOF positions to the areas dite authorisation for any necessary self- uting countries to ensure UNDOF’s ability where there have been clashes between defensive equipment for the mission to enter to operate e"ectively. government forces and the armed opposi- the country. Though the US holds the pen on the tion groups. The fact that Syria has still not Golan Heights, resolutions renewing UND- allowed all counter-IED equipment into the Council Dynamics OF have been jointly authored with Russia country is a related issue. Council members are concerned about the since June 2012, suggesting consensus on increasing clashes, both in number and an issue that is increasingly a"ected by the Options intensity, as well as the tension between highly divisive conflict in Syria. The most likely option is for the Council to Israel and Syria. The Council has always receive the report and briefing and take no generally agreed that UNDOF contributes

Libya

Expected Council Action general Khalifa Haftar. At press time, Misra- proclaimed the establishment of an emir- In September, Council members are likely to ta-based militias had consolidated their hold ate in Benghazi. In a 21 August statement, be briefed on developments in Libya by Ber- on Tripoli and fighting had expanded to the UNSMIL condemned the fighting in Tripoli nardino León, the new Special Representa- outskirts of the capital. and Benghazi, “especially the indiscriminate tive of the Secretary-General and head of the UNSMIL personnel, currently based in shelling of residential neighbourhoods and UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Tunisia due to the security situation, have public facilities as well as the use of aircraft and then meet in consultations. The Council concentrated their e"orts on brokering a in military operations”. will also likely receive the periodic briefing by ceasefire in Tripoli. In a 17 August state- A newly formed House of Representa- the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Com- ment, UNSMIL deeply regretted the lack tives—which took over from the General mittee, Ambassador Eugène-Richard Gasana of response “to the repeated international National Congress (GNC)—met for the (Rwanda), and hold consultations on the Lib- appeals and its own e"orts for an immedi- first time on 2 August in Tobruk and elect- ya sanctions regime. ate ceasefire”. The UN High Commissioner ed Ageela Issa Gweider as its president. The The mandates of UNSMIL and the Panel for Refugees, quoting the Crisis Commit- constitutionality of House meetings—where of Experts (PoE) assisting the 1970 Libya tee of the Tripoli City Council, said some Islamists hold significantly fewer seats than Sanctions Committee expire on 13 March 7,240 families (around 43,500 people) have they did in the GNC—has been challenged and 13 April 2015, respectively. been displaced by the fighting in Tripoli. On by some. On 12 August, the House decid- 17-18 and 23 August airstrikes reportedly ed that the next President would be elected Key Recent Developments carried out by Egypt and the United Arab by a popular vote. On 25 August, the GNC, Three years after the fall of Tripoli, the secu- Emirates hit locations controlled by Misra- whose mandate has ended, appointed Omar rity situation has significantly deteriorated in ta-based militias. al-Hassi as new prime minister in a move the capital of Libya. On 23 August, after a The security situation in Benghazi, where likely to exacerbate political tensions. five-week siege, Misrata-based militias and Haftar’s o"ensive started, remains critical. Regional actors have been alarmed by the their Islamist allies took over the Tripoli After overrunning a special-forces camp loyal crisis in Libya. During a 13-14 July confer- International Airport, which had been held to Haftar, Ansar al-Sharia—a terrorist group ence hosted by Tunisia, neighbouring coun- until then by Zintan-based militias that sup- which is not listed under the 1267/1989 tries decided to form security and political ported the 16 May failed coup by rogue Al-Qaida sanctions regime—on 31 July committees to monitor developments in

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2146 (19 March 2014) imposed measures on vessels transporting crude oil that had been illicitly exported from Libya. S/RES/2144 (14 March 2014) extended the mandates of UNSMIL and the PoE. S/RES/1973 (17 March 2011) authorised all necessary measures—excluding an occupation force—to protect civilians in Libya. S/RES/1970 established a sanctions committee. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/131 (26 February 2014) was the latest report of the Secretary-General on Libya. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7218Security Council Press Statements SC/11489 (23 July 2014) welcomed the announcement SC/11479 (17 July 2014) condemned the recent violence in Libya. Sanctions Committee Document S/2014/106OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL Bernardino León (Spain) UNSMIL Size and CompositionUNSMIL Duration 16 September 2011 to present.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Libya (con’t)

Libya. On 17 July, Libyan Foreign Minister Human Rights-Related Developments violence and agree to work together for Mohamed Abdulaziz addressed the Securi- national reconciliation, justice, respect for ty Council and called for the establishment, of the High Commissioner for Human Rights human rights and the rule of law; and (OHCHR) expressed concern over the situation under Chapter VII, of a UN stabilisation • calling on all member states to respect the and institution-building mission for Libya. indiscriminate shelling of heavily populated areas arms embargo and threatening all those On 12 August, Prime Minister Abdullah al- violating it with secondary sanctions. Thinni called for the establishment of joint It could also list Ansar al-Sharia under the forces agreements with Algeria, Egypt and raised concern about armed groups on both sides 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions regime. Tunisia to protect the borders. (This came after increasing rumours that Algeria and against media professionals. Council Dynamics Egypt might intervene in the country.) On The sharp deterioration of the security and 14 August, the House of Representatives political situation in Libya continues to be called for the intervention of the internation- Key Issues a source of concern for Council members. al community in Libya to protect civilians The main issue in Libya is how to achieve Despite the increased level of attention, until and Abdulaziz reiterated his call for interven- a ceasefire between warring parties in Trip- late August Council members had limited tion at a follow-up meeting of neighbouring oli and Benghazi. Continuous violations of their reaction to issuing several press state- countries held on 25 August in Egypt. On 23 international humanitarian law by the war- ments. It seems the position of some Council August, the House of Representatives and the ring parties is a related issue. members regarding the actions of the gov- interim government adopted a plan aimed at An overarching set of key issues includes ernment and various groups and militias, in maintaining security and stability in Libya. how to avoid the challenges to legitimate particular those of Haftar, has prevented the Among other requests to the Security Coun- institutions, encourage a national political Council from tackling this situation active- cil, the plan included suggestions to review dialogue, the inclusiveness of the House of ly. The failure to act more decisively is also UNSMIL’s current mandate (S/2014/632). Representatives and the formation of a legiti- a"ecting the already di#cult situation in At press time, UNSMIL sta" remained in mate government following the 25 June par- which UNSMIL is expected to implement Tunisia and the UN Secretariat was under- liamentary elections. its good-o#ces mandate: the myriad spe- taking a strategic review of the mission. The The threat that terrorist groups with cial envoys of international actors (includ- conclusions of this review are expected to regional reach could consolidate in Libya is ing three permanent Council members) risks provide the Council with options in the near also a key issue. further increasing the confusion regarding future. On 14 August, the EU Special Repre- A neglected issue is the role of regional negotiations for a ceasefire in Libya. sentative for Libya, León, was appointed new and international actors that are contribut- Following Abdulaziz’s call for a UN sta- Special Representative of the Secretary-Gen- ing to the escalation of conflict in Libya. The bilisation and institution-building mission, it eral and head of UNSMIL. He is expected to provision of funds, weapons and other sup- remained unclear how and whether Coun- take over on 1 September. On 27 August the port to warring factions—in contravention of cil members are planning on responding Council received the last briefing by outgoing the 1970 sanctions regime—is a related issue. to this. In a 20 August interview with Le head of UNSMIL, Tarek Mitri. The potential partiality of the listings by the Monde, French President François Hollande Gasana is likely to brief the Council on sanctions committee is a further related issue. expressed his deep concern over the situation how the situation is a"ecting the work of the in Libya and said the 2011 military inter- committee, such as the insu#cient mecha- Options vention was not su#cient because it was cut nisms to avoid possible violations of the arms The Council could adopt a resolution: short and had insu#cient follow-up. In an embargo and the lack of centralised over- • urging all parties to agree on a ceasefire; 8 August interview with The New York Times, sight of military procurement. Resolution • refocusing UNSMIL’s mandate in the US President Barack Obama acknowledged 2174 adopted on 27 August imposed sanc- light of the current situation, prioritising that the US and its European partners under- tions on individuals and entities obstructing its work on national dialogue, disarma- estimated the need for a plan to rebuild soci- or undermining the successful completion ment, demobilisation and reintegration as eties with no civic traditions after the revolu- of the political transition and tightened the well as security sector reform; tion succeeded in Libya. arms embargo. • demanding that the militias and army fac- The UK is the penholder on Libya. tions in Libya disarm, refrain from using

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 Sudan and South Sudan

Expected Council Action asserts that the conditions for national dia- relatively calm, although the underlying con- In September, the Council expects to hold logue currently do not exist in Sudan, pri- ditions remained volatile and unpredictable”. an informal interactive dialogue on Sudan- marily a reference to the continued detention Menkerios reported that progress had not South Sudan issues with Thabo Mbeki, chair of political prisoners. been made in implementing the 27 Septem- of the AU High-Level Implementation Panel. Maryam El-Sadig, a key NUP figure and ber 2012 agreements. (The informal interactive dialogues are o"- the daughter of NUP party leader Saddiq the-record meetings presided by the Coun- al-Mahdi, was arrested in Khartoum on 11 Key Issues cil President a"ording members’ interaction August following her return from the meet- A key issue is whether Sudan and South with high-level o#cials involved in diplo- ing in Paris. Another major opposition figure, Sudan can demonstrate the political will macy regarding situation-specific issues on Sudanese Congress Party leader Ibrahim al- and energy to negotiate a resolution to the the Council’s agenda. Meetings are held in a Sheik, who was arrested on 8 June after criti- outstanding issues dividing them, while meeting room other than the Council Cham- cising the management of the Darfur conflict, both countries are mired in their own ber or Consultations Room, and participa- also remains in jail. domestic crises. tion is limited to Council members.) Mashood Baderin, the UN Independent Also a key issue is whether the Council Expert on the situation of human rights in can formulate an e"ective response to the Key Recent Developments Sudan, called for the release of El-Sadig, al- national dialogue process in Sudan, one that Progress continues to remain elusive on Sheik and other political prisoners in Sudan encourages progress but also signals concern implementation of several elements of the 27 on 15 August. He emphasised that “it is about the shortcomings of the process. September 2012 agreements between Sudan imperative to ensure the guarantee of fun- Another important issue is how to and South Sudan regarding oil-sharing, damental civil liberties and freedom of all encourage Sudan and the Sudan People’s cross-border trade, border security, nation- political leaders to encourage confidence in Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) ality issues and other matters. The Joint the proposed national dialogue.” to engage in serious negotiations. (At press Border Verification and Monitoring Mech- On 16 August, a committee consisting of time, Mbeki was trying to reconvene the par- anism (JBVMM) along the Sudan-South pro-government and opposition parties that ties for direct talks.) Sudan border is barely operational. The have agreed to participate in the national dia- centre-line of the Safe Demilitarised Border logue presented a roadmap for the process. Options Zone (SDBZ), intended to be a bu"er zone According to the roadmap, there will be a Hearing from Mbeki about his mediation between the two countries, has not been national dialogue conference in which par- role with respect to Sudan-South Sudan determined, leaving the boundaries of the ticipants will strive to arrive at decisions by negotiations, Sudan-SPLM-N talks and the SDBZ undefined and delaying overall bor- consensus. On issues where there is strong national dialogue process in Sudan will be der demarcation. Temporary administrative disagreement, a vote can be taken but a mea- much welcome and may prompt the Coun- units in the disputed Abyei region, straddling sure must achieve at least 90 percent sup- cil to consider adopting a presidential state- Sudan and South Sudan, have also still not port to be approved. The AU and the Arab ment that: been established, and security forces from League will be allowed to observe the con- • encourages the national dialogue in Sudan both sides remain in or enter the region in ference, which President Omar al-Bashir is but expresses concern about the curtail- breach of Security Council resolutions. expected to chair. ment of press freedom and the arrests of The national dialogue process in Sudan In mid-August, the AU established a com- opposition figures; continues to experience setbacks. Concerns mittee, chaired by Mbeki, to help support the • urges Sudan and the SPLM-N to reen- continue to be raised among opposition par- national dialogue. Mbeki reportedly called gage in serious negotiations; and ties, as well as international actors, that gov- on Sudan to release political prisoners in a 17 • urges Sudan and South Sudan to take ernment repression has created a climate that August meeting with Hassan al-Turabi, head measures to di"use the potential for con- is not conducive for constructive dialogue. of the Popular Congress Party, which is par- flict in Abyei, including by redeploying On 7-8 August, members of the opposi- ticipating in the national dialogue. their security forces away from the region tion National Umma Party (NUP) and the The Council held consultations on and reactivating the Abyei Joint Oversight rebel alliance Sudan Revolutionary Front Sudan-South Sudan issues and the situation Committee, which is meant to enable joint (SRF) met in Paris to discuss their concerns in Abyei on 20 August, with Edmond Mulet, political and administrative oversight in about the national dialogue. (Both the NUP Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Abyei but has not convened in well over and the SRF are not participating in the pro- Operations, and Haile Menkerios, the Special a year. cess because of their doubts about the gov- Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan ernment’s intention to initiate meaningful and South Sudan, briefing. Mulet gave an Council Dynamics reform.) On 8 August, they signed a state- overview of the Secretary-General’s 23 July There is recognition among several Council ment known as the “Paris Declaration”, call- report on Abyei (S/2014/518), which stated members that it will be challenging for Sudan ing for genuine political reform and an end that “the situation in Abyei during the peri- and South Sudan to resolve their outstanding to the various conflicts. The statement also od under review [14 May to 23 July] was issues, given that both countries are mired in

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/518 (23 July 2014) is on Abyei.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Sudan and South Sudan (con’t) their own civil wars. While Council members especially given the arrest of key opposition toward the regime continue to argue for debt view the national dialogue process in Sudan as figures. In general, some members tend to be relief and a removal of economic sanctions. a step in the right direction, several question highly critical of Sudan’s human rights record, The US is the penholder on Sudan-South the government’s commitment to the process, while others who are more favourably disposed Sudan issues.

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action continues to work closely with MISCA in media reports, whereas the anti-balaka were On 15 September, the UN Multidimensional preparing its contingents for the transfer of pleased with this choice, a communiqué Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Cen- authority, or “re-hatting”, by filling in capa- by Séléka’s second vice-president, General tral African Republic (MINUSCA) will take bility gaps and obtaining additional forc- Mohamed Mousa Dha"ane, stated that the over peacekeeping responsibilities from the es. In addition to MISCA contingents, the group will reconsider its participation in the African-led International Support Mission in report notes the recruitment of three non- government as it was not consulted on the the Central African Republic (MISCA), in MISCA battalions and 120 police o#cers appointment. accordance with resolution 2149. The Coun- and the addition of three helicopters. How- In the meantime, the agreed ceasefire has cil may have a high-level briefing under the ever, specific information on overall strength not brought an end to the sectarian violence US presidency to discuss the current situa- and preparations is not given in the report. or the activities of both armed groups. On 17 tion in the Central African Republic (CAR). (Resolution 2149 requested the Secretary- August, the Séléka reportedly killed 34 peo- The mandate of MINUSCA expires on General to report on the implementation of ple about 350 kilometers north of Bangui. 30 April 2015. MINUSCA’s mandate including troop and In addition, despite the ceasefire agreement, police levels, force and police generation and Noureddine Adam, the deputy leader of the Key Recent Developments deployment of all constituent elements.) Séléka, announced on 17 August the estab- The situation in the CAR remains dire. On the political front, 169 representatives lishment of an independent state in north- While MISCA forces and French and EU of the transitional government, armed groups eastern CAR. troops have tried to protect civilians, their and civil society held talks in Brazzaville from According to Médecins Sans Frontières, on success has been partial and mostly limit- 21-23 July. A ceasefire involving the predomi- 20 August at least 30 people were injured in ed to the capital, Bangui. According to the nantly Muslim Séléka rebel group and the fighting between local militia and EU troops Secretary-General’s latest report of 1 August anti-balaka was signed, and demands for the in Bangui after residents of the Muslim PK-5 (S/2014/562), civilians are the targets of CAR to be split in two along religious lines neighbourhood accused the force of killing a sectarian violence, and serious violations of were dropped. Council members issued a man the day before. human rights and international humanitar- press statement on 24 July welcoming the The Council was briefed by the Special ian law continue with impunity. These vio- ceasefire as a first step in a wider political Representative and head of MINUSCA, lations include forced displacement of the process that is meant to ensure durable peace, Babacar Gaye (Senegal), and the chair of civilian population, rape and other forms of respect for human rights, protection of civil- the Peacebuilding Commission’s CAR con- sexual violence, the recruitment of children ians and the rule of law (SC/11491). figuration, Omar Hilale (Morocco), on 19 by armed groups, assassinations, summary As part of the Brazzaville agreement, August. Hilale informed Council members executions and cruel, inhuman and degrad- interim President Catherine Samba-Panza that the configuration could only form its ing treatment. In addition, half of the popu- on 5 August dismissed her government to long-term framework once peace is achieved, lation is still in need of humanitarian assis- make way for a national unity government. but it could support the political process, rec- tance and more than one million people have On 10 August, Samba-Panza named Maha- onciliation and reforms. Gaye welcomed the been displaced, with 400,000 seeking refuge mat Kamoun as the country’s first Muslim ceasefire agreement and concentrated mostly in neighbouring countries. While most of prime minister, responsible for forming the on the political process and said that the new the Muslim population has fled to the north, new government. (Kamoun was chef de government must be an inclusive one. He roughly 20,000 Muslims are still trapped in cabinet to former interim President Michel told Council members that MINUSCA troop various enclaves, including in Bangui, where Djotodja.) Kamoun announced that his first capacity will be at 65 percent by 15 Septem- they are surrounded and regularly attacked priorities are the formation of an inclusive ber but apparently did not provide specific by the Christian anti-balaka militia. government, restoring security and state information on preparations for deployment. The report adds that MINUSCA authority and reconciliation. According to After the consultations, Gaye told the media

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE CAR Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2149 (10 April 2014) established MINUSCA. S/RES/2134 (28 January 2014) renewed the mandate of the UN Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7246 situation in the CAR. Security Council Press Statement SC/11491 Security Council Letter S/2014/373 (26 June 2014) was from the Secretary-General to the Council President containing the reissued version of the CoI interim report. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative and Head of MINUSCA Babacar Gaye (Senegal) MINUSCA Size and CompositionMINUSCA Duration 10 April 2014 to present Chair of the Sanctions Committee

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 Central African Republic (con’t) that by 15 September MINUSCA will have Key Issues • undertaking a Council visiting mission to an initial deployment capacity of 7,600 troops, An overarching issue is to sustain a hands-on the CAR (which the Council has never with 5,800 of those from MISCA (including approach towards the CAR, including close- visited despite its being on the Council a battalion from the Democratic Republic of ly monitoring MINUSCA’s deployment and agenda since 1997); the Congo, despite its military being listed on possible ramifications from the situation on • listing further individuals for violations of the Secretary-General’s list for child recruit- the ground and then following up with Coun- the criteria set out under resolution 2134, ment and sexual abuse of children). cil action accordingly. either through the 2127 CAR Sanctions The Council has yet to be briefed on the A related issue is monitoring the main- Committee or by the Council; or interim report of the Commission of Inquiry tenance of the ceasefire as a stepping stone • taking no action at this time. (CoI) mandated by the Council in resolution toward stability. 2127 to investigate reports of violations of Another related issue is the establishment Council and Wider Dynamics international humanitarian law, international of state institutions by the new government With MINUSCA’s commencement of oper- human rights law and abuses of human rights from the ground up, ensuring the success of ations imminent, Council members are now in the CAR. (The initial report was retracted the transitional political process, possible rec- looking to monitor its performance in stabi- and reissued. For more details, see our July onciliation and upholding accountability for lising the security environment and, on the 2014 Monthly Forecast.) It seems that there is human rights and international humanitarian civilian side, the re-establishment of state not much appetite among Council members law violations. authority. Council members are in agree- to discuss the interim report ment that much rides on the success of the Options ceasefire and an inclusive political process Human Rights-Related Developments Options for the Council include: to restore the peace and as a safeguard • issuing a statement welcoming the com- against partition. of Discrimination against Women considered mencement of MINUSCA peacekeeping Concerns remain for many Council mem- CAR’s implementation of the Convention on the operations, supporting the transitional bers about MINUSCA’s logistical capabili- Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against political process and reconciliation, call- ties come 15 September. While Gaye pro- Women. Committee experts acknowledged the ing for accountability for crimes and vided information on 19 August about the complex situation and structural problems in the encouraging member states to contrib- number of troops and the political process, ute resources and troops to MINUSCA Council members felt he did not shed light that would be up to UN human rights on the level of readiness of the troops or the measures to prevent gender-based violence and standards; logistical preparations. to end impunity for crimes against humanity and • discussing and taking up recommenda- France is the penholder on the CAR. serious human rights abuses. tions in the interim report of the CoI;

Liberia

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments unknown, but they are presumed to pose In September, the Council is expected to Liberia is facing a public health crisis due a significant risk of further spreading Ebo- receive a briefing by Karin Landgren, Spe- to an outbreak of Ebola virus disease. On la. On 20 August, the government forcibly cial Representative of the Secretary-Gener- 6 August, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf quarantined West Point, resulting in clashes al and head of the UN Mission in Liberia declared a 90-day state of emergency; on between residents and security forces. Ini- (UNMIL), regarding the Secretary-Gener- 8 August, the World Health Organization tially confirmed in Guinea on 22 March, as al’s latest report on UNMIL (S/2014/598) (WHO) declared the outbreak in West Africa of 20 August there have been an estimated and other recent developments. Ambassador an international health emergency; and on 11 1,082 cases and 624 deaths due to Ebola in Mårten Grunditz, chair of the Liberia con- August, the National Electoral Commission Liberia and a total of 2,615 cases and 1,427 figuration of the Peacebuiding Commission announced an indefinite postponement of deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and (PBC), is also likely to brief. A meeting of the campaign period for senatorial elections Nigeria, according to WHO. UNMIL troop-contributing countries has scheduled for 14 October. On 16 August, a Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon appoint- also been scheduled. The Council is likely to crowd attacked a facility used to isolate sus- ed Dr. David Nabarro as UN Senior Coordi- adopt a resolution renewing UNMIL’s man- pected Ebola cases in West Point, a densely nator on Ebola Virus Disease on 12 August. date, which expires on 30 September. populated slum in Monrovia. As of press On 15 August, Assistant Secretary-General time, the fates of 17 escaped patients were for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBERIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2128S/RES/2116 (18 September 2013) renewed the UNMIL mandate until 30 September 2014. Security Council Letter S/2014/504 October. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/598 (15 August 2014) was the most recent report of the Secretary-General on UNMIL.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Liberia (con’t) and Under-Secretary-General for Field Sup- Sanctions Committee, briefed members a period of one year, including a change in port Ameerah Haq briefed UNMIL troop- in consultations. On 16 July, the President the force structure and a revision of the man- and police-contributing countries (TPCCs). of the Security Council sent a letter to the date as recommended in the report of the Landgren also briefed from Monrovia via vid- Secretary-General requesting a report to the Secretary-General: a reduction of 988 mili- eo-teleconference. The meeting was focused Council by 1 October that would assess the tary personnel by mid-2015, adding logis- on preventive measures for UNMIL per- progress of Liberia toward the termination of tical support for electoral assistance and sonnel (e.g., limiting movement and expo- sanctions and provide recommendations for creating a good o#ces role for the Special sure) and contingency plans to ensure their UN assistance to Liberia to monitor the bor- Representative. health, none of whom have yet contracted der with Côte d’Ivoire and manage arms and Another option would be to roll over the Ebola. On 18 August, the PBC configura- ammunition (S/2014/504). The report was UNMIL mandate for a more limited time- tions for Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone to be based on the findings of an assessment frame, such as a three-month interim period, held a joint informal meeting, also attended mission to be undertaken by the Department and thus refrain from making any substan- by Assistant Secretary-General for Peace- of Political A"airs in coordination with the tive revisions to the mandate until there is building Support Judy Cheng-Hopkins, to Department of Peacekeeping Operations and more clarity regarding the scope of the Ebola discuss the implications of Ebola for regional UNMIL. Due to the outbreak of the Ebola outbreak and its full operational implications peacebuilding. The Resident Coordinators epidemic, at press time it was unclear when for UNMIL. for the three countries briefed the configura- the assessment mission would be deployed. tion members via video-teleconference. Due Council and Wider Dynamics to the rapid escalation of the Ebola outbreak, Underlying Problems In the period prior to the Ebola outbreak, the on 28 August the Secretary-General trans- The Ebola outbreak in Liberia raises di#- Council had been taking steps toward draw- mitted a letter to the Council president rec- cult questions regarding three interconnected ing down UNMIL and phasing out the 1521 ommending a three-month technical rollover issues: the government’s capacity to deliver Liberia sanctions regime. Resolution 2116, for UNMIL (modifying the recommendation services and maintain stability, the pace and adopted on 18 September 2013, authorised previously made in his report of 15 August). scope of the international response to Ebola the second of three stages in troop reductions, In what the Secretary-General’s report in West Africa, and the impact of a rapidly with a decrease of 1,129 troops by September referred to as Liberia’s “most serious security deteriorating public health situation on the 2014. Resolution 2128, adopted 10 Decem- incident in almost three years” (S/2014/598, operational capabilities of UNMIL. The ber, decided to review the sanctions regime paragraph 15), more than 500 people gath- government has mismanaged its response in six months “with a view to modifying or ered on 3 July in Nimba county to protest to the Ebola outbreak on numerous lev- lifting all or part of the measures”, dependent against the ArcelorMittal iron ore compa- els—e.g., inadequate public education and upon progress toward meeting the criteria for ny, alleging that the company had failed to insecure health centres—but Liberia also their termination. comply with its social commitments. The lacks the necessary resources to adequate- While the long-term trend toward scal- situation escalated into a clash between ly respond to a public health crisis of this ing back UNMIL has been clear for some the protestors, some of whom were report- magnitude. That suggests “the international time, what impact the recent Ebola outbreak edly armed, and the national police backed e"ort to stem the outbreak is dangerously could have on these plans within the short to by UNMIL. Significant damage was done inadequate”, as Médecins Sans Frontières medium term remains ambiguous. If the sit- to company property and 57 people were recently noted. Finally, it remains unclear uation deteriorates further, the government arrested. On 10 July, Johnson Sirleaf said how profoundly the measures being taken will undoubtedly continue to require the that the demonstration a week earlier had to protect the health of UNMIL personnel, assistance of UNMIL to maintain stability been an “attack” on the economy and that which apparently include restricting sta" in the country. On the other hand, there may those arrested would be prosecuted. Raising movement, will a"ect the ability of UNMIL also be strong pressure from the UNMIL broader questions regarding the stability of to fulfil its mandate. TPCCs (Bangladesh, China, Ghana, India, the natural resources sector in Liberia, the Jordan, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines incident in July had precedents, with three Key Issue and Ukraine among others) to considerably protests against agriculture (Golden Vero- The principal issue facing the Council is the accelerate the drawdown of the peacekeeping leum) and mining companies (ArcelorMittal UNMIL renewal within the broader context operation, if not evacuate it outright. and BHP Billiton) in March and April. of the Ebola outbreak. The US is the penholder on Liberia and The Council last addressed Liberia on 16 Jordan is chair of the 1521 Liberia Sanctions June when Ambassador Zeid Ra’ad Zeid Al- Options Committee. Hussein (Jordan), chair of the 1521 Liberia One option would be to renew UNMIL for

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 Haiti

Expected Council Action time, there were reports that the application installed and that MINUSTAH’s shutdown In September the Council will hold a debate of article 12 of the “El Rancho” accord was would be premature. on Haiti to consider the Secretary-General’s being considered as a way out of the crisis. At the same time, the Secretary-General most recent report on the UN Stabilization This article states that in the event that the argues that there is scope for a further con- Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). The Special two branches of parliament have not voted solidation of MINUSTAH in light of recent Representative of the Secretary-General and on the amended electoral law within 10 days security gains. He therefore recommends a head of mission, Sandra Honoré, is expected of signature of the agreement, the law is auto- two-step drawdown of the mission, involving to brief. matically on hold and the electoral council is first the renewal of its mandate for one year Ahead of the debate, the Council is plan- allowed to override the lack of approval and with a reduction of the authorised military ning a meeting with MINUSTAH’s troop move forward with elections. component from its current level of 5,021 and police contributors. The Secretary-General visited Haiti on troops to 2,370 by June 2015. (The police Also in September, Council members are 14-15 July, meeting with the president, the component would remain at its current level likely to start discussions on the renewal of prime minister, parliamentarians, judges, of 2,601 o#cers.) As a second step the force MINUSTAH’s mandate, which expires on police and representatives of civil society, as could then be further reduced following the 15 October. well as families a"ected by cholera. A small 2015 presidential elections and the installa- group of demonstrators told him to go home tion of a new government, depending on the Key Recent Developments while calling MINUSTAH an occupation situation at the time. When the Council last discussed Haiti, on force responsible for the cholera epidemic. In 24 March, there had been some encour- a press conference at the end of the visit, the Human Rights-Related Developments aging progress in the preparations for the Secretary-General expressed concern about The Independent Expert on the situation of long overdue local and legislative elections. the political gridlock and also conveyed his from 15-22 July. In a press conference on 22 July In particular, Council members as well as regrets to the victims of the cholera epidemic. Honoré in her briefing welcomed the 14 (Meanwhile, the UN is continuing to claim March “El Rancho” accord between the it has immunity against lawsuits filed in US main political players. The accord provided courts by the victims.) for the amendment of the 2013 electoral law In his report on MINUSTAH, which The UN Special Rapporteur on the human to allow for combined elections to be held was circulated to Council members on 22 by 26 October for two-thirds of the senate, August, the Secretary-General strongly the entire chamber of deputies, municipal emphasised the importance of elections in administrations and local councils. It also Haiti to be held this year and called on polit- displaced persons (IDPs) in the country. During called for the conversion of the former Tran- ical actors to rise above their di"erences to he emphasised that although the number of IDPs sitional College of the Permanent Electoral ensure the holding of transparent and inclu- has decreased from 1.5 million to approximately Council into a new Provisional Electoral sive elections “in the higher interest of their Council with each branch of power chang- country” (S/2014/617). approach for the achievement of durable solu- ing up to one of its three nominees, as well The Secretary-General’s report also con- as a partial cabinet reshu'e. tains recommendations for a further draw- welcomed the creation of sectorial platforms and inter-ministerial committees to coordinate devel- In the period since the accord was con- down of MINUSTAH based on a strategic - cluded, however, implementation of its key assessment mission which was deployed to provisions has been hampered by continu- Haiti in June as announced in his 7 March - ing political bickering and it is now unlike- report to the Council. (This report present- - ly that elections will be held by 26 Octo- ed five options for a post-2016 UN pres- ommended conducting a “needs based assess- ment” of all IDPs as well as verifying the location ber. While the chamber of deputies adopted ence in Haiti ranging from the termination of those who live outside of camps. the necessary amendments to the electoral of the peacekeeping mandate and appoint- law on 1 April, the vote in the senate has ment of a UN Special Envoy for Haiti or been blocked by a group of six senators who establishment instead of a UN special politi- Key Issues oppose the accord on constitutional grounds. cal mission, to replacing MINUSTAH by The di#cult political situation, including On 11 August, the electoral council informed a new, much smaller peacekeeping mission the continued impasse over matters relating President Michel Martelly that it would be or maintaining MINUSTAH with a revised to the elections, remains a key issue for the technically impossible to organise the first mandate.) The review concluded that it Council. The mandate of two thirds of the round of elections by 26 October due to the would be desirable to ensure the continu- senators and all members of the chamber absence of an amended electoral law provid- ity of UN support until elections have tak- of deputies will expire in January 2015 and ing the required legal framework. At press en place and a new government has been the inability to hold elections by then could

UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2119 (10 October 2013) renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate until 15 October 2014. Security Council Press Statement SC/10901 (28 January 2013) called for the holding of elections by the end of 2013. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2014/617 (22 August 2014) was the latest MINUSTAH report. S/2014/162Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7147 (24 March 2014) was the most recent debate on Haiti.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Haiti (con’t) therefore lead to the dissolution of parliament called for the holding of elections by the the way forward are likely to di"er. Whereas and Martelly ruling by decree. end of that year.) members generally agree that conditions on Other key issues include ongoing e"orts Another option in September is simply the ground must be taken into account when to strengthen the rule of law, enhance the for Council members to listen to the Special considering a further drawdown, some are capacity of the police, improve the humani- Representative’s briefing and express their more cautious than others about reducing tarian situation, combat cholera and promote national positions in the debate. the military strength of the mission under economic development. the present circumstances, in particular in A separate key issue is the renewal of Council and Wider Dynamics light of the continued uncertainty surround- MINUSTAH’s mandate and whether to Council members are united in their con- ing the elections, and may consider the Secre- authorise a reduction of its military strength cern about the political situation and the tary-General’s recommendation as going too along the lines recommended by the lack of progress in organising elections. far. Others, such as France and the UK, who Secretary-General. There is a sense among key Council mem- have in the past expressed their preference for bers, however, that the scope for Council an accelerated drawdown, may be more likely Options action is limited and that the situation can to support the recommendations. One option for the Council would be to best be dealt with bilaterally. There is also While the US is the penholder on Haiti, adopt a statement voicing concern about a belief that any outside pressure which is the Group of Friends of Haiti plays an influ- the continued delays in the preparations for seen as favouring one side over another may ential role. (Current members are Argentina, elections, urging political actors to resolve only make the situation worse. Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, their di"erences, expressing support for the As for the renewal of MINUSTAH’s man- Guatemala, Peru, the US and Uruguay, Special Representative and calling for elec- date, at press time Council members were which is the chair.) tions to be held this year. (In a 28 January still studying the Secretary-General’s rec- 2013 press statement, Council members ommendations in this regard, but views on

Children and Armed Conflict

Expected Council Action civilian populations. It also highlights the and establishment of child-protection units In September the Council will hold an open worsening situation in a number of coun- in national security forces. The resolution debate to discuss the latest report of the Sec- tries, including the Central African Republic also highlighted the role of child-protection retary-General on children and armed con- (CAR), South Sudan, Syria, and northern advisers in mainstreaming child protection. flict (S/2014/339). Special Representative Nigeria, and provides updates on the imple- In addition, it focused on the role of region- of the Secretary-General for Children and mentation of relevant Council resolutions. al organisations in child protection and the Armed Conflict Leila Zerrougui, Deputy Overall the report covers 23 situations and in need to incorporate child-protection provi- Executive Director of UNICEF Yoka Bradt its annexes lists 59 parties for grave violations sions in peace agreements. Many of these and a representative from the Department against children, including 51 armed groups themes are expected to be highlighted dur- of Peacekeeping Operations are expected and eight armed forces in 15 country situa- ing the debate. to speak. Minister of Foreign and Europe- tions. Chad was de-listed from the annexes The Working Group on Children and an A"airs Jean Asselborn of Luxembourg while Nigeria was introduced as a situation of Armed Conflict has had six formal meetings will be attending. In addition, actor Forest concern due to systematic attacks on schools in 2014. It has adopted conclusions on the Whitaker, who has supported the “Children, and the killing and maiming of children by situation in the Philippines (19 February) Not Soldiers” campaign, is expected to par- Boko Haram. and Mali (7 July); received briefings from ticipate. (The campaign aims to eliminate On 7 March the Council held an open the South Sudan Country Task Force (by child recruitment by government security debate on children and armed conflict and video teleconference), the Commissioner forces by 2016.) At press time no outcome adopted resolution 2143 (S/PV.7129). A for Peace and Security of the African Union, was expected. key focus of this resolution was the need to Smail Chergui, and ICC Prosecutor Fatou respect and protect schools from attacks and Bensouda. During these meetings, Zer- Key Recent Developments use by armed forces or groups. It also stressed rougui presented the reports on the situa- The 13th Secretary-General’s report on chil- the importance of mainstreaming child pro- tion of children and armed conflict in the dren and armed conflict covers global trends, tection issues when undertaking security sec- Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) including the impact on children of the use tor reform, including through age-assessment and Syria and also briefed on her visits to of explosives, air strikes and terror tactics on mechanisms to prevent underage recruitment South Sudan and Yemen as well as on the

UN DOCUMENTS ON CHILDREN AND ARMED CONFLICT Security Council Resolution S/RES/2143 (7 March 2014) was the most recent resolution. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/339Security Council Debate S/PV.7129 (7 March 2014) was the

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 Children and Armed Conflict (con’t) conditions for children in Iraq. The Working encouraged to sign action plans to stop using • not neglecting non-state actors and armed Group is currently negotiating conclusions schools and hospitals for military purposes. groups, as well as violations other than on the Secretary-General’s report on chil- While country-specific decisions have recruitment, now that there is a focus on dren and armed conflict in Syria and is about increasingly included child-protection lan- government forces and recruitment due to start negotiations on the conclusions to guage, particularly when setting up or renew- to the “Children, Not Soldiers” initiative; Secretary-General’s report on children and ing UN mission mandates, a greater focus • assessing the impact of the first several armed conflict in the DRC. on implementation continues to be an issue. months since the launch of the “Children, There was some progress in getting par- Ongoing issues include persistent per- Not Soldiers” initiative; ties to commit to action plans. Yemen signed petrators, how to deal with non-state actors, • ways of improving the working methods an action plan to end the recruitment and sanctions and accountability. of the Working Group so that conclusions use of children in the armed forces on 14 Continuing issues for the Working Group can be adopted more speedily, including May, leaving Sudan as the last of the eight include receiving relevant, current infor- shorter, more focused conclusions and countries with government forces on the mation that can be used as the basis for its more precise schedules for the reports to Secretary-General’s annexes that have yet to conclusions, lengthy negotiations due to be considered by the Working Group; and sign an action plan to stop recruitment of lack of consensus and little response to its • considering ways of enhancing coopera- children. Both Afghanistan and South Sudan recommendations. tion and building stronger partnerships reconfirmed their commitment to action with regional organisations. plans to end the recruitment of children, with Options Afghanistan on 1 August endorsing a road An outcome is not a likely option, as most Council Dynamics map towards compliance. members do not believe that there is much After several years of di#cult dynamics on to be added at this point to resolution 2143, this issue, the current mix in the Council Key Issues which was adopted less than five months ago. allowed for more cooperative negotiations The key issue for the Council is how best The most likely option is for member on resolution 2143 and the two conclusions to address the issue of children and armed states to use the opportunity to further con- adopted to date in 2014. However, Working conflict in new and rapidly changing con- sider the role of the Council in relation to Group negotiations on conclusions on the flicts that involve children, such as Gaza and the children and armed conflict agenda. The situation of children in Syria have been more Iraq. The current process of listing parties fol- ongoing crises in which children are severe- complicated, reflecting the larger Council lowed by the production of Secretary-Gener- ly victimised, such as the CAR, Gaza, Iraq dynamics on Syria. al’s reports and consideration by the Working or South Sudan, are likely to be brought up While a significant number of Council Group generally means it takes several years in the debate. Topics that could be covered members are supportive of or at least neutral before recommendations are made. include: to the issue of children and armed conflict, A related issue is being able to quickly • responding to situations where children’s most are not looking to expand its scope in obtain credible information on the situation rights are clearly being violated, including any significant way. In addition, many mem- of children in a new conflict where there is regular briefings from the Special Repre- bers, even those supportive of the issue, have no established monitoring and reporting sentative for Children and Armed Con- a number of red lines that do not easily allow mechanism. flict and press releases from the Working for strong recommendations from the Work- The phenomenon of attacks on schools Group; ing Group. As in the recent past, new ideas and hospitals gained greater visibility fol- • addressing accountability and cooperation are not readily accepted, making it di#cult to lowing the adoption of resolution 2143. An with justice mechanisms, such as the ICC; even issue press statements or share informa- issue for the Council is how this aspect of • exploring how child protection should tion with bodies such as the ICC. the children and armed conflict agenda can be taken into consideration during Luxembourg is the lead on children and be developed further and how parties can be mediation; armed conflict.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Notable Dates for September Bruno Stagno REPORT DUE REPORTS FOR CONSIDERATION IN SEPTEMBER REQUESTING Executive Director DOCUMENT Joanna Weschler Deputy Executive Director & 15 May 2014 S/RES/2068 Director of Research

15 August SG report on UNMIL (Liberia) (S/2014/598) S/RES/2116 Amanda Roberts Coordinating Editor & Senior Research Analyst 25 August OPCW report on the implementation of resolution 2118 S/RES/2118 (Syrian chemical weapons) (S/2014/622) Shamala Kandiah Thompson What’s in Blue Editor & Senior Research Analyst 29 August SG report on MINUSTAH (Haiti) S/RES/2119 Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & 8 September SG report on UNSMIL (Libya) S/RES/2144

10 September SG report on UNAMA (Afghanistan) S/RES/2145 Victor Casanova Abos Research Analyst

12 September SG report on UNDOF (Golan Heights) S/RES/2163 Charles Cater Research Analyst

23 September SG report on humanitarian access in Syria S/RES/2139 Dahlia Morched S/RES/2165 Research Analyst & Communications Coordinator

MANDATES EXPIRE RELEVANT DOCUMENT Paul Romita Research Analyst 30 September UNMIL (Liberia) S/RES/2116 Eran Sthoeger Research Analyst

Benjamin Villanti Research Analyst

Robbin VanNewkirk Publications Coordinator

Vladimir Sesar Research Associate

Lindiwe Knutson Research Assistant

Maritza Tenerelli Administrative Assistant

Marie-Eve Loiselle Endeavor Fellow

Stevenson Swanson Editorial Consultant

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20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2014