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Modeling Florida Panther Movements to Predict Conservation Strategies in North Florida

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Modeling Florida Panther Movements to Predict Conservation Strategies in North Florida MODELING FLORIDA PANTHER MOVEMENTS TO PREDICT CONSERVATION STRATEGIES IN NORTH FLORIDA By PATRICIA CATHERINE CRAMER A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 1999 Copyright 1999 By Patricia Catherine Cramer ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to express my sincere appreciation for all those who helped me through the Ph.D. process. I would first and foremost like to thank my spouse, Robert Hamlin, for all the intellectual, emotional, and financial support he has given me these years. This dissertation is a quality piece of science thanks in large part to him. I also would like to thank Dr. Ken Portier for the past several years of inspiration and computer support. I wish to thank Dr. Larry Harris for helping me arrive at the University of Florida, opening my horizons to landscape ecology, and supporting me. To the other members of my committee - Drs. Wiley Kitchens, Mel Sunquist, and Clay Montague - who have all been there for me over the years and have provided much scientific advice, I also extend my thanks. I would also like to thank Brad Stith (Sir Bradley), for his enormous contributions to the development of the model. Without Brad, I would not have graduated until the next millennium. I also want to extend a general thank you to the graduate students I have shared my thoughts and work with. Technical advice, ideas, laughter, and anguish were shared with many friends and peers. Thank you all for the past seven years. I wish to only begin to show my appreciation to Tom and Janet Cramer, my loving parents, who began my education process 38 years ago. Where I am today is due in large part to the support and inspiration they have given me since my first breath. Thank you. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. iii LIST OF TABLES . vi LIST OF FIGURES . vii ABSTRACT. x CHAPTERS 1 INTRODUCTION. 1 Overview. 1 Landscape Ecology and Multi-Disciplinary Study . 2 Spatially Explicit Models . 6 The North Florida Setting. 10 Regional and Land Use Planning in Florida . 20 Dissertation Structure . 32 2 MODEL METHODS.. 34 Introduction. 34 Movement Model - Mimicking Florida Panther Movements. 39 Quantification of the Landscape – Images . 65 Landscape Scenario Development. 89 Model Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis . 92 iv 3 MODEL SIMULATION RESULTS . 96 Introduction. 96 Model Development. 96 Establishing Model Settings: 1990’s Conditions, Scenario II . 139 Predicting Effects of Human Pressure on Panthers: Future Scenarios III and IV . 149 Summary. 162 4 DISCUSSION. 164 Panthers and Environmental and Human Variables . 165 Conclusions and Significance of PANTHER Results . 176 Significant Areas for Florida Panthers in North Florida . 181 Conservation Recommendations . 188 5 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE APPLICATIONS . 197 APPENDIX THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PANTHER EDUCATION PROGRAM EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 202 REFERENCES. 212 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH . 220 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1.1 Human population estimates of north Florida counties (taken from Bureau of Economic and Business Research 1996). 17 1.2 Approximate acreage of generalized land use within the unincorporated areas of north Florida counties (taken from Data and Analysis Plans of Baker (1996), Columbia (1996), Hamilton (1996), Suwannee (1996), and Union (1996) Counties. 19 1.3 Protected lands of significant size (>1,000ha) in north Florida and respective managing agencies. 21 1.4 Natural Resources of Regional Significance as identified by the North Central and Northeast Florida Regional Planning Councils in their Strategic Plans (1996). 24 2.1 Initial ranking of habitat variables of neighboring cells. 43 2.2 Devaluation amounts for cells recently visited. 52 2.3 Home range cell index value increases and decreases. 55 2.4 Land cover types used in Natural Community Landscape Image (taken from Cox et al. 1994). 66 2.5 Natural community rankings for cell habitat index values. 68 2.6 Classification of Roads Landscape Image. 74 2.7 Final road evaluation by panthers and mortality probabilities. 77 2.8 Initial ranking of deer densities. 80 2.9 Human use intensity values assigned to individual parcels based on Florida Department of Revenue land use codes. 84 2.10 Human density classes based on sum of parcels in each square mile. 84 vi 2.11 Panther evaluation of human density classes. 86 2.12 Response by county to the telephone survey question: How would you agree or disagree with the following statement? “I favor the reintroduction of panthers in my county or surrounding counties.” 89 3.1 Various settings of rankings of Landscape Images and home range rules for resident females used in model calibration. 98 3.2 Baseline settings for each panther type for each Landscape Image. 103 3.3 Home range estimates in kilometers2 for all panthers under various settings. 108 3.4 Percentage utilization of natural communities by simulated panthers. 127 3.5 Average rate of daily road crossings per panther for selected settings. 129 3.6 Mean home range size (km2) for panthers in Scenario II, setting 10. 140 3.7 Average percent utilization of natural communities by panthers. 142 3.8 Average number of road crossings per day per cat, based on gender. 144 3.9 Private and public land use by overall panther population, and among three geographic groups. 145 3.10 Panther use of counties grouped according to resident attitudes toward panthers. 146 3.11 Estimated average home range size (km2) per panther for all four scenarios. 154 3.12 Average percent utilization of natural communities by simulated panthers. 156 3.13 Average number of road crossings per day per panther, all scenarios. 158 3.14 Average private and public land use, all scenarios. 159 4.1 Panther use of counties in contrast to county support for panthers. 176 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1.1 The five county study area within the state of Florida. 11 1.2 North Florida major towns and conservation areas. 16 1.3 Flow diagram of research synthesis. 33 2.1 Flow diagram of PANTHER model. 38 2.2 Full flow diagram of PANTHER model (minor classes excluded). 41 2.3 Panther perception distance of neighboring cells. 48 2.4 Devaluation of cells based on previous moves. 50 2.5 Initial starting places for seven panthers simulated in PANTHER. 64 2.6 Natural Communities Landscape Image based on Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Closing the Gaps Database. 69 2.7 Roads and public conservation lands in north Florida. 75 2.8 Deer Densities Landscape Image. 81 2.9 Human Density Landscape Image for north Florida, 1996. 83 2.10 Public Conservation Lands Landscape Image in north Florida. 88 2.11 Human Density Landscape Image for the year 2020 91 2.12 Human Density Landscape Image for Scenario III, 2020 92 3.1 Locations and home ranges of panthers simulated in setting 1. 114 3.2 Locations and home ranges of panthers simulated in setting 5. 117 3.3 Locations and home ranges of panthers simulated in setting 16. 118 viii 3.4 Locations and home ranges of panthers in one simulation of setting 10. 121 3.5 Locations and home ranges of panthers simulated in setting 3. 123 3.6 Road associated mortality sites generated during model sensitivity analysis. 133 3.7 Locations and home ranges of panthers simulated in setting 11. 136 3.8 Locations of panthers in a simulation of Scenario II, 1990’s condition. 141 3.9 Areas of use by panthers during three different simulations of Scenario II, present condition with humans. 148 3.10 Locations and home ranges of panthers simulated in Scenario III, future with best conservation. 152 3.11 Locations and home ranges of panthers simulated in Scenario IV, future, no added conservation. 153 4.1 Major existing and potential conservation areas in north Florida. 184 ix Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy MODELING FLORIDA PANTHER MOVEMENTS TO PREDICT CONSERVATION STRATEGIES IN NORTH FLORIDA By Patricia Catherine Cramer August 1999 Chairman: Kenneth Portier Major Department: Wildlife Ecology and Conservation The Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) is one of the most endangered mammals in North America. Reintroducing the panther to portions of its former range has been deemed critical to the species’ future existence. The north Florida-south Georgia region is a prime candidate site for such reintroductions. Modeling the movements of Florida panthers is used as a tool to identify specific regional landscape features and conservation strategies that would be most critical to panthers, other species, and the ecosystems upon which they depend. The spatially explicit model PANTHER was created based on results from a state sponsored reintroduction feasibility study and ongoing studies of south Florida panthers. It mimics panther behavior and movement over Geographic Information Systems (GIS) maps representing natural communities, roads, deer densities, human densities, and human x attitudes. Potential future effects of human development were also modeled, based on data derived from county and regional comprehensive plans, population projections, and development patterns. The model was validated by comparing output estimates with those from previous Florida panther studies. The model identified high probability use locations within the 7,000 square kilometer study area. The majority of these locations are also places of high development pressure, especially along the Suwannee River. Model output indicates panthers used private property approximately 67 percent of all moves. Model outputs were compared with data from a public education program conducted earlier in the research process. Over 70 percent of panther moves were in Hamilton and north Columbia Counties, areas of lowest public support for panther reintroductions.
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