Modelling Elections in Post(Communist Regimes: Voter
Modelling Elections in Post-Communist Regimes: Voter Perceptions, Political Leaders and Activists. Norman Scho…eldy, Maria Gallegoz, JeeSeon Jeonx; Marina Muskhelishvili{, Ugur Ozdemirk, and Margit Tavits Center in Political Economy, Washington University, 1 Brookings Drive, Saint Louis, MO 63130. August 25, 2011 Abstract This paper applies a stochastic electoral model to modeling elections in Poland in 1997, 2001 and 2005, in Georgia in 2008, and in Azerbaijan in 2010. We …nd that in Poland the valence di¤erences are su¢ ciently large to force low valence parties or candidates to adopt divergent positions. We argue that this implies a fundamental di¤erence between an elec- toral system based on plurality rule in contrast to one based on propor- tional representation. In addition, in “anocracies”such as Georgia and Aizerbaijan, the lim- ited access to the media by the parties in opposition to the president means that their support groups …nd it di¢ cult to coalesce. As a conse- quence, they are unable to press successfully for greater democratization. In these countries, the presidential electoral system is highly majoritar- ian, and the President’s party dominates the political arena, controlling political resources and the media. We conclude by giving an overview of the empirical results that have been obtained so far for the three plurality democracies of the USA, The authors thank Merab Pachulia, Director of GORBI, Tbilisi, Georgia for making the survey data for the 2008 election in Georgia available, and thank Rauf Garagozov, Leading Research Fellow, International Center for Social Research, Institute of Strategic Studies of the Caucasus, Baku, Azerbaijan.
[Show full text]