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A Risk Assessment of the Impacts of Coastal Flooding and Sea Level Rise on the Existing and New Pump Stations 113, Norfolk, VA

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A Risk Assessment of the Impacts of Coastal Flooding and Sea Level Rise on the Existing and New Pump Stations 113, Norfolk, VA Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations Civil & Environmental Engineering Fall 2015 A Risk Assessment of the Impacts of Coastal Flooding and Sea Level Rise on the Existing and New Pump Stations 113, Norfolk, VA David A. Pezza Old Dominion University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/cee_etds Part of the Civil Engineering Commons, Climate Commons, and the Environmental Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Pezza, David A.. "A Risk Assessment of the Impacts of Coastal Flooding and Sea Level Rise on the Existing and New Pump Stations 113, Norfolk, VA" (2015). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/4q4b-ed57 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/cee_etds/2 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Civil & Environmental Engineering at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF COASTAL FLOODING AND SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THE EXISTING AND NEW PUMP STATIONS 113 NORFOLK, VIRGINIA by David A. Pezza B.A. August 1973, Saint Francis College B. S. May 1974, The Pennsylvania State University M.E. May 1993, Old Dominion University Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF ENGINEERING CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY December 2015 Approved by: _____________________ Gary Schafran (Director) _____________________ David Basco (Member) _____________________ C. Ariel Pinto (Member) _____________________ Kristen Lentz (Member) ABSTRACT A RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF COASTAL FLOODING AND SEA- LEVEL RISE ON THE EXISTING AND NEW PUMP STATIONS 113 NORFOLK, VIRGINIA David A. Pezza Old Dominion University, 2015 Director: Dr. Gary Schafran The author assessed the risk to a wastewater pump station and a planned replacement located nearby due to coastal flooding and rising sea levels. The locations for the pump stations are in the Larchmont neighborhood by the Lafayette River tidal estuaries in Norfolk, Virginia. The Lafayette River is a tributary to the Elizabeth River, which flows to the Chesapeake Bay. The low-lying areas along the river are subject to coastal surges caused by tropical and extra-tropical storms that flood the bay. The region is considered one of the urban areas most exposed to the accelerating rate of rising sea levels. Six of the highest storm surges on record have occurred since 2003 and even more moderate events have inundated the existing pump station. The flooding impacts the service and reduces the life cycle performance of the pump system. The study compares the vulnerability of the existing pump station to an alternative to replace the station in a new location. It uses systems engineering to define the challenge caused by coastal flooding and future sea levels, and risk-informed decision methodologies to define the exposure. The findings show that the investment in a new iii pump station reduces relative risk due to coastal flooding nearly fivefold; but over the 50- year life cycle of the pump station the risk increases again because of higher sea levels. iv Copyright, 2015, by David A. Pezza, All Rights Reserved. v This thesis is dedicated to my dog Abbie named after Young Frankenstein’s brain, Abbie Normal. vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS There are many people who have contributed to the successful completion of this project report. I extend a heartfelt thank-you to my committee members for their patience and guidance on my research and editing of this manuscript. The efforts of my advisor, Gary Schafran, Ph.D., my sponsor, Kristen Lentz, P.E., Director of Utilities, City of Norfolk, and C. Ariel Pinto, Ph.D., deserve recognition. However, I would like to give special recognition to David Basco, Ph.D., P.E., for his mentoring throughout my five- year academic effort. Also, several people provided technical support. They are Michael C. Morgan, P.E., CDM Smith; Robert J. Martz, P.E., Hampton Roads Sanitation District; H. Ali Mahan, P.E. and Chris Guvernator, P.E. of O’Brien & Gere; Michael Barbachem, P.E. of WRA, Inc.: and Eric G. Tucker, Christopher J. Krus, Ph.D., P.E., Leticia Quejada, and Melvin Hopkins, P.E., with the Department of Utilities, City of Norfolk. Lastly, there are friends and family who deserve my appreciation. They are my neighbor, fellow graduate student and civil engineer James P. L. Holzgrefe, MAJ, USA; my brother Paul E. Pezza, Ph.D., professor emeritus, Providence College and my ever loving and patient wife Julia S. Pezza who is ready for me to graduate. vii NOMENCLATURE AE FEMA Code for Land Covered by 100-year Base Flood ALARP As Low As Reasonably Practical ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers BFE Base Flood Elevation CO Clean Out Elev. Elevation EPA Environmental Protection Agency EPS Existing Pump Station ERP Elizabeth River Project ETA Event Tree Analysis FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency F-N Frequency of N or More Fatalities Per Year HMGP Hazard Mitigation Grant Program HP Horse Power HRPDC Hampton Roads Planning District Commission HRSD Hampton Roads Sanitation District HSE Health & Safety Executive Interm Intermediate MARI Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute MHHW Mean Higher-High Water MSL Mean Sea Level viii NAE National Academy of Engineering NAVD North American Vertical Datum NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPS New Pump Station NRC National Research Council ODU Old Dominion University O/U Over-Under PAR Population At Risk PS Pump Station RPM Revolutions Per Minute SCADA Systems Control and Data Analysis SDVF Single-Dimensional Value Function SPGF Submersible Pump Grinder F model SWL Stillwater Level TDH Total Discharge Head USACE U. S. Army Corps of Engineers VA Virginia VAC Virginia Administration Code VDOT Virginia Department of Transportation VIMS Virginia Institute of Marine Services WSU Wave Set-Up w/ with ix A Area A1, A2…Ai Events in Sample Space Ω b Constant for a rate of sea level rise measured at a tide gauge dx1, dx2, …dxi Derivative of the function of 푓푥̅ E[M] Expect Value of M, Margin of Safety F Force 퐹푥1, 퐹푥2 Distribution Functions for Variables X1, X2 fr R Function fs S Function 푓푥̅ Joint Probability Density Function 푓푟(푥) Resistance Probability Density Function 퐹푟(푥) Resistance Probability Distribution Function ft feet 푔 Failure Function gpd gallons per day gph gallons per hour gpm gallons per minute H Hydraulic Head (feet), Wave Height h Water Depth i Element I in a set of I in inches k Wave Number L Length, Wave Length x M Margin of Safety Function m meters m3 cubic meters mm millimeters mR, mS Medians of R and S NL Project Design Life n number P Load P(A) Probability of Event A 푃(퐴1 ∪ 퐴2 ∪ 퐴3 ∪ … )An infinite sequence of mutually exclusive events 푃(퐴1 ∪ 퐴2 ∪ … ∪ 퐴푛) A finite sequence of mutually exclusive events 푃(퐴 ∩ 퐵) Probability of both Events A and B occur 푃(퐵|퐴) Probability of B given the Event A PE Encounter Probability Pf Probability of Failure PF Probability of Failure PL Lifetime Probability P(Ω) Probability within the Sample Space P(X>x) Probability of sample value x is less than Random variable X 푝 Probability pdf Probability Density Function pr Probability of Failure, Area under Probability Density or Cumulative Probability Curve Q Volume of Flow (gpm) xi R Required Resistance or Capacity of a Structure R Risk RF Reverse of the Probability of Failure R(t) Change of Resistance Over Time S Load Applied or Demand to a Structure SF Safety Factor S(t) Change of Strength Over Time T, t Time Period TR Return Period V(A) Measure of Overall Impact of Risk Event V1, V2, …Vi Value of Consequences 푉+, 푣+ Mean-Up-Crossing Rate 푉푅 Coefficient of Variation for R w1, w2,…wi Relative Weights of Consequences 푋̅ Vector-Valued Random Variable X1, X,2, ...Xi One-Dimensional Random Variables Xr1, Xr2…Xri An R random variable Xs1, Xs2…Xsi An S random variable x1, x2 Values of Random Values X1, X2 푍̅ Normalized Variable ZR Normalized Value for R ZS Normalized Value for S ∀ For All, For Any, or For Each xii = Equal Sign ∞ Infinity 풦 Dimensionless Number in wave set-up calculations % Percent ∫ Definite Integral ∪ Union ∩ Intersection 훽 Reliability Index 훽퐻퐿 Hasofer and Lind’s Reliability Index Γ Safety Factor 훾푅 Safety Factor for R 훾푆 Safety Factor for S 휂̅ Mean Water Level 휂̅푏 Wave Set-Down 휂̅푚푎푥 Maximum Wave Set-Up 휂̅푠 Wave Set-Up ℎ푏 Water Depth at 휂̅푏 휇푔 Mean Value of the Failure Function, 푔 휇푀 Mean Value of the Variable M 휇푅 Mean Value of the Variable R 휇푆 Mean Value of the Variable S π Pi 푔 Standard Deviation of the Failure Function, 푔 xiii 푀 Standard Deviation of the Variable M 푅 Standard Deviation of the Variable R 푙푛푅 Standard Deviation of the natural log of the Variable R 푆 Standard Deviation of the Variable S 푅푆 Correlation Coefficient for Variables R and S Σ Summation Φ Cumulative Standard Normal Distribution Function Ω Sample Space xiv TABLE OF CONTENTS Pages LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................... xv LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................... xvii Chapter
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