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FINAL REPORT of NOPA ACTIVITIES Project Title: Numerical Methodologies Applied to S FINAL REPORT OF NOPA ACTIVITIES Project Title: Numerical methodologies applied to Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment Partner Institutions: Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE) and Carl Von Ossietzky Universität (University of Oldenburg) Brazilian Coordinator: Dr. Enio Bueno Pereira (from INPE) German Coordinator: Dr. Detlev Heinemann (from Un of Oldenburg) Process number: 002/2011. December, 2013. 1. INTRODUCTION Brazil and Germany have set ambitious targets in order to effectively address the challenges associated with climate change and promote sustainable development using natural resources. In this context, both countries have intensified efforts to reduce the environmental impacts of energy consumption and promote the commercial exploitation of renewable energy resources like solar and wind energy in order to meet the growing energy demand due to the Brazilian social and economic development with a sustainable and clean approach. The NoPa program is a joint collaboration among CAPES and DAAD in order to support scientific partnership between Brazilian and German research institutions. Taking into consideration the increasing share of solar and wind resources to the Brazilian energy matrix, it is required to get better knowledge of climate and weather impacts on the electricity generation and distribution system as well as the operation of solar and wind power plants. Information on spatial and temporal availability and variability of these energy resources is required, not only to operate the Brazilian energy system but to evaluate and develop new energy policies and incentives programs to boost the solar and wind energy market in Brazil. This project was developed by the research team of the Renewable Energy Resource Assessment Laboratory of the Brazilian Institute of Space Research (LabRen/INPE) together with Energy Meteorology research group from Carl Von Ossietzky Universität. The activities aimed at evaluating the impacts of the climate changes on the solar and wind energy resources in the predominant tropical conditions in Brazil, and at improving numerical methodologies to estimate and forecast the energy resources in short and long- term by using climate models and stochastic approaches. The term Energy Meteorology is relatively new and it is characterized by its interdisciplinarity. It comprises studies in the interface between the energy sector, the meteorological sciences, and the decision sector at government level as well as the stakeholders in the private sector of the society. As the solar and wind energy exploitation worldwide is showing an increasing tendency, the technology for resource assessment and forecasting is becoming more and more important to plan, operate the electricity system in a sustainable and secure way. The energy sector is requiring more consistent and reliable meteorological tools and services to keep up with the technical and security challenges to meet the energy demand. This technology and capacity building is becoming more important in Brazil because of its large territorial extension encompassing different typical climate conditions. The German experience shows that tools for estimate and short-term power forecast have a significant contribution to the energy market. A growing number of small businesses is providing the energy and climate forecasting service to the energy sector and become an integral part of the energy industry in Germany. The focus of this NoPa program was to support capacity building through PhD students, and joint researches between the two partners. Two Brazilian students visited Oldenburg in order to developed part of their doctorate research at the Carl Von Ossietzky Universität under supervision of Dr. Detlev Heinemann. Besides that, one Brazilian investigator had a short stay (20 days) in Germany to exchange knowledge in radiative transfer modeling applied to solar radiation assessment in 2012. Three workshops were developed during the two-year period to disseminate the research activities and to bring new partners interested in framing a new proposal for a research to be presented to energy companies from both countries seeking for a long-term support. Two of the workshops were held in Brazil and the third was held in Germany. This document presents a brief description of the activities developed by INPE during the NoPa project. The next topic will describe the INPE participation in the workshops. The section 3 presents the research activities of two Brazilian PhD students in Germany. The section 4 presents a short description of the 20-day mission accomplished by Dr. Fernando Ramos Martins at the University of Oldenburg. 2. INPE-UN. OLDENBURG WORSHOPS Three workshops were carried out during the NoPa project. The kick-off meeting was held in February 2012 at INPE in São José dos Campos and aimed at promoting the integration between the research groups from both institutions. Five investigators from the Energy Meteorology at University of Oldenburg team came to Brazil and were engaged in lectures and round discussions together with Brazilian students and professors from several interested Brazilian institutions: INPE, the Federal University of Alagoas, the Federal University of Brasilia, and the Federal University of Itajubá. Approximately twenty people participated in the three-day event that allowed an interesting opportunity to discuss the basic concepts and approaches of the meteorological science applied to the energy sector. The German experience was presented and compared to the activities under development by the participating Brazilian institutions. The goals and the agenda for the INPE-Un. Oldenburg activities in the framework of the NoPa project were proposed, discussed and established in the last day of the workshop. The Annex 1 presents the main achievements from the kick-off meeting. The second workshop occurred during the IV Brazilian Congress for Solar Energy (CBENS) held in September 2012 in the city of São Paulo. The Annex II presents the workshop rationale and its agenda. The event aimed at disseminating the research activities related to solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting developed by INPE and Un. Oldenburg in order to meet the information demands from the Brazilian energy sector. Invited lectures from the Federal University of Santa Catarina and of the Empresa Pesquisas Energéticas presented the energy market point of view about the required data and information from the energy meteorological researches and services. The third workshop was held in Bremen as part of DEWEK 2012 – the most important meeting for wind energy community in Europe. The event was very similar to the one held in São Paulo and it presented the same goals but focused on the German wind energy researchers and energy entrepreneurs interested in information on wind energy in Brazil. The Annex 3 presents a short description and agenda of the German workshop. A fourth workshop will occur in Recife during the first week of December. This meeting will be focused in planning a long term research proposal involving INPE, the Federal University of São Paulo, the Un. of Oldenburg and CHESF (Energy Company of São Francisco). This proposal will focus in regional evaluation of solar energy resource for a concentrated solar power plant located in Northeastern region of Brazil. The discussions during this meeting are expected to be important to define the goals, approaches and methodologies of the new project for the next two or three years. 3. PhD. STUDENT ACTIVITIES AT UN. OF OLDENBURG Two Brazilian PhD students went to the University of Oldenburg in Germany for a four- month period in order to develop part of their doctorate research under supervision of Dr. Detlev Heinemann: • Marcelo Pizzuti Pes - his doctorate research is focused in the frequency distribution of extreme wind and its relationship with climate variability in Brazil. • Francisco José Lopes de Lima – his PhD. research aims at developing a short-term forecast approach using numerical weather prediction models together with neural network refinement for Northeastern region of Brazil. 3.1 Doctoral Exchange Activities developed by MSc. Marcelo P. Pes (process no. BEX 4406/13-3) His activities were accomplished from May 28th until September 30th. His research aims at evaluating the influence of extreme wind frequency distribution on wind power generation in Brazil. Besides that, he intends to investigate if there is any change in extreme wind frequency distribution as a consequence of global climate change. The wind power generation was almost insignificant in Brazil by 2005. However, currently there are around 80 wind farms in commercial operation or planned to start running by 2014. The operation license for these wind farms are endorsed for next 20 years and it may be extended for another 20 years. Some recently published studies (Sailor and Hart, 2008; Breslow and Sailor, 2001; Lucena et al, 2008 and Pereira et al., 2011) demonstrated that the wind resources would change in some regions as a consequence of future climate scenarios established in IPCC reports. These changes can have a significant impact in the wind energy power plants once wind power is proportional to the cube of wind speed. Moreover, the capacity factor of wind power plants may also suffer negative impacts due to extreme wind events. The wind turbine requires a threshold wind velocity to start and stop operating in order to avoid damage to the wind turbine. Thus, the changes in trends of the extreme wind
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