Derbyshire Dales & High Peak Joint Housing Needs Survey
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DERBYSHIRE DALES & HIGH PEAK JOINT HOUSING NEEDS SURVEY COVERING THE PEAK SUB REGION FINAL REPORT MARCH 2007 E-Mail: [email protected] Page 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCTION: 3 A. Strategic context B. Scope of the report C. Structure of the report 2. SURVEY DESIGN, METHODOLOGY AND VALIDATION 11 3. A PROFILE OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE SUB-REGION 21 4. PROBLEM HOUSING AND THE REMEDIES FOR IT 36 5. THE COSTS OF HOUSING 47 6. THE CURRENT AFFORDABILITY OF HOUSING 67 7. NEWLY ARISING NEED AND SUPPLY FORECASTS 82 8. THE OVERALL SCALE OF NEED – THE ASSESSMENT MODEL 107 9. THE MIX OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING REQUIRED 117 10. FUTURE DEMAND FOR MARKET HOUSING 134 11. RURAL KEY WORKERS 141 12. STRATEGIC PLANNING IMPLICATIONS 171 APPENDICES 1. Survey Response and Weighting 191 2. Population projections 2006-2016 192 3. The affordability propensity of newly forming households 195 4. Supply-side information 198 5. Additional information about key workers 211 6. Employers Key Worker Postal Survey 218 7. Resident-based Household Survey 222 John Herington Associates Page 3 SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION __________________________________________________ A. STRATEGIC CONTEXT 1.1 The East Midlands Regional Strategy makes clear that access to housing is an acute problem in much of the Peak Sub-Region, especially within the boundaries of the National Park. This arises from high levels of demand from people working outside the area and people moving to the Peak on retirement that push up the price of housing, combined with low levels of local incomes. A limited supply and low turnover of social housing, and a high incidence of second homes exacerbate this. 1.2 A strategic housing unit covering the Peak Sub Region (Derbyshire Dales District Council and High Peak Borough Council areas) has been established and the unit has published ‘A Joint Housing Strategy for 2005 to 2009’. This Joint HNS has been commissioned to address and inform both housing strategy and planning policies at the sub-regional and local authority scale. 1.3 Our report provides the first assessment of housing needs covering the Peak Sub-Region as a whole. The survey provides information about housing needs at the sub-regional and local authority level and for urban and rural sub-areas. For planning and housing purposes, there is considerable value to be gained from disaggregating information on housing needs and indeed this is recommended good practice. Thus, while emphasis in the text is placed primarily on the sub-regional scale, key findings from the survey are available for ten sub-areas. Previous housing need surveys were carried out in 2001 separately by Derbyshire Dales District (John Herington Associates) and High Peak Borough (Fordham Research) using rather different geographical sub- areas. John Herington Associates Page 4 1.4 It is relevant to note that sub-regional housing markets were identified in the research carried out by DTZ Pieda Consulting (DTZ) titled ‘Identifying the Housing Markets of the East Midlands, February 2005.’ The Peak Sub-Region was one of the HMAs identified. This research confirms that local housing assessments across plan area(s) should focus on both affordable housing needs and market housing demands. The joint housing needs survey is intended to form part of that assessment which focuses essentially on housing needs with some information about demand for market housing. 1.5 The emphasis on needs-based research is welcome in this sub-region since the severe restrictions on land supply, especially in the Peak District, mean that, to all intents and purposes, only affordable housing will be realistically delivered. However, the Joint HNS does examine housing demand across all tenures and includes reference to: ‘the quantity and type of housing which households wish to buy or rent and are able to afford. In other words, it takes account of both preferences and ability to pay.’ (ODPM, Local Housing Needs Assessment, Section A2.2, page 116). 1.6 It is important for needs-based research to take a more sophisticated approach to the analysis of affordable housing requirements than has sometimes been the case: ‘It is of increasing importance that HNAs not only provide crude numbers of households in need of affordable housing, but information on tenure preferences and ability to afford intermediate housing products such as shared ownership and other forms of subsidised housing other than conventional social rented housing. This implies developing effective means of collecting information on household income and wealth (particularly existing housing equity) and greater sophistication in analysing the ability to afford different sub- market housing products’. (‘Identifying the Housing Markets of the East Midlands’, February 2005 (DTZ)). John Herington Associates Page 5 B. SCOPE OF THE REPORT 1.7 This Joint HNS report seeks to provide a good understanding of affordable housing needs in the Peak sub-region. It does this by systematically analysing an extensive range of information drawn from primary fieldwork and other secondary sources. It also seeks to advise on how affordable housing policy in the planning framework should respond to the scale of the housing need identified. 1.8 While emphasis is given to providing information of value to the constituent authorities at a sub-regional scale, there is a balance to be struck between strategic advice and the natural desire for detailed information about housing needs in every locality. We have sought to resolve this by providing in the text information about some of the key findings for a number of identified sub-areas. These are based on parish groupings (see para 2.3-2.6, Table 2.1 and the accompanying Map). 1.9 The report takes into account current government guidance on housing needs assessment, as set out in DCLG: Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice, which was published in July 2000. JHA gave evidence to the Bramley report at the time of its preparation and is familiar with the broad approach being taken in the guidance, although we do not choose to follow the guide in a slavish way. The guidance focuses on the methodological steps required to provide a numerical calculation of housing need which are set out clearly as the Basic Needs Assessment Table 2.1. It is our experience that at each point in the steps required to complete the table, technical judgements are required and there is not, in our judgement, a single ‘right’ judgement to fit all circumstances. John Herington Associates Page 6 1.10 The government’s latest ideas on how to assess current and future housing need are set out in the report ‘Housing Market Assessments: Draft Practice Guidance’ published for consultation in December 2005. At the time of this commission, this advice was still at draft stage and the Basic Assessment Model set out in the 2000 report has been followed. However, we do take into account some of the advice contained in the draft guidance and acknowledge this in the report. The two local authorities have commissioned a Housing Market Assessment (HMA) that is scheduled for completion by March 2007. 1.11 The issue of Key Workers housing is one which is often portrayed as a problem which is unique to the South East or London, simply because these are the regions where policy has been fully developed. But the Joseph Rowntree Foundation report, ‘Can work - can't buy: Local measures of the ability of working households to become homeowners’ by Steve Wilcox, indicates that Derbyshire Dales District and High Peak Borough are 2 out of 12 districts in the East Midlands where key worker average incomes are less than 90% of the income required to purchase lower quartile housing. 1.12 The National Housing Federation argues that housing must be made accessible to a wider group of workers in rural regions (Inside Housing, 2 December 2005). This is especially relevant to the Peak sub-region where difficulties in recruiting and or retaining rural key workers in the sub-region, caused by high house and rental prices, could erode the sub-regions’ economy over time. The report examines whether employers are experiencing problems of recruiting keyworkers and if so, whether accommodation is one of the reasons for this difficulty. If there are keyworkers who may be living outside the sub-region due to the lack of affordable housing can these needs be addressed? The report also examines which groups play key roles in the community and local economy should be included in a local definition of ‘rural’ keyworkers. John Herington Associates Page 7 C. STRUCTURE AND APPROACH TO THE REPORT 1.13 The principal findings are contained within an Executive Summary. There are seven main sections to this main report. Section 2. Survey Design, Methodology and Validation explains the geographical framework used for the sample household surveys, the response rates achieved in the interview and postal surveys and the different ways in which the accuracy of both surveys was validated against the 2001 Census findings. Section 3. A profile of households in the sub-region refers to the basic characteristics of the population as indicated by the surveys. It covers such topics as the tenure and types of existing housing, housing movements in the recent past, moving aspirations and the financial resources of existing households. The focus is on key findings – this section does not summarise every piece of information gathered for each sub-area since this is available as a database. Section 4. Problem housing and the remedies for it - Analyses the number and type of households having a problem with their present home. It examines the remedies for addressing housing needs: firstly, the number of households expecting to need improvements or adaptations in the home (‘in situ’) rather than moving; secondly, the number of households needing (as opposed to wanting) to move to another property.