Final Report to the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Program
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Final Report To the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Program Project Title: Improving the Hurricane WRF-Wave-Ocean Coupled System for Transition to Operations Award Period: 08/01/2007 - 07/31/2009 Principal Investigator: Isaac Ginis Graduate School of Oceanography The University of Rhode Island December, 2009 Executive Summary The primary goal of this project was to improve the operational hurricane predictive capabilities at the NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center/National Centers for Environmental Prediction by transitioning recent improvements in the air-sea momentum flux parameterizations and the ocean model initialization made by the URI research group into to the Hurricane WRF (HWRF) modeling system. This work was conducted in close collaboration with our EMC colleagues, building directly upon our successful joint EMC/GFDL/URI coupled model research program. We also collaborated with scientists at NOAA/ESRL on the implementation of the NOAA/ESRL sea-spray parameterization scheme into the HWRF model. The following major tasks were conducted: • Implementing and testing the URI wave boundary layer in the HWRF coupled system. • Improving air-sea momentum and heat flux parameterization in the HWRF model by including the effects of wave breaking, sea-spray, and wave-current interaction. • Improving ocean initialization in the HWRF coupled system by implementing new methods for assimilating satellite and in-situ measurements. This report summarizes the main work accomplishments and the results. Tasks completed: I. Implementing the URI wave boundary layer model into the HWRF a) Improving drag coefficient formulation We have implemented an improved drag coefficient parameterization into the operational version of HWRF by upgrading the wave boundary layer (WBL) model of Moon et al. (2007). The WBL model is based on the theoretical model of Moon et al. (2004a-c) and derived from coupled wave-wind (CWW) model simulations of ten tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean during 1998-2003. The upgraded WBL model incorporates the observational results from the CBLAST field experiment (Black et al., 2007) and the estimations of drag coefficient distribution based on GPS sonde wind profiles by Powell (2007). In the improved WBL model, a new formulation for the nondimensional surface roughness (Charnock coefficient) has been derived in order to better match the model results with the observations. Fig. 1 shows Cd vs. wind speed at various sections relative to the storm center. These sections represent composite distributions based on simulations of Hurricanes Noel (2007), Helene and Florence (2006), Katrina, Rita, Emily, Dennis (2005), Ivan and Frances (2004), and Isabel and Fabien (2003). The HRD wind analyses available at every 6 hours were used as the wind input into the model. The new parameterization is now more consistent with the Powell (2007) results but still cannot reproduce the extreme high and low values of Cd in his estimations. We speculate that one possible reason for the observed low values of Cd is related to the sea spray effect, which is not included in this WBL model. Recent studies (e.g., Andreas et al. 2004) suggest that sea sprays may significantly reduce the drag coefficient at very high wind speeds. The sea spray effect is now being implemented in the new coupled wind-wave- current framework as discussed below. Figure 1. Drag coefficient (Cd) vs. wind speed. Left panel shows Cd in 8 sectors relative to the storm center. Each sector is 45o where the zero degree direction is aligned with the storm movement vector. Right panel shows Cd in 3 sectors with the sizes corresponding to those in Powel (2007). Powell’s data are shown for comparison. The WBL model was recently upgraded further by implementing the coupled wind and wave formulation of Kukulka and Hara (2008a,b) that includes the enhanced form drag of breaking waves. Breaking and non-breaking waves induce air-side fluxes of momentum and energy in a thin layer above the air-sea interface within the constant flux layer (the wave boundary layer). By imposing momentum and energy conservation in the wave boundary layer and wave energy conservation, Kukulka and Hara (2008a,b) have derived coupled nonlinear advance-delay differential equations governing the wind speed, turbulent wind stress, wave height spectrum, and the length distribution of breaking wave crests. The system of equations is closed by introducing a relation between wave dissipation (due to breaking waves) and the wave height spectrum. Wave dissipation is proportional to nonlinear wave interactions, if the wave curvature spectrum is below the threshold saturation level. Above this threshold, however, wave dissipation rapidly increases, so that the wave height spectrum is limited. The improved model was first applied for fully-grown seas and then applied for a wide rage of wind-wave conditions from laboratories to the open ocean. Kukulka and Hara (2008a,b) investigated the effect of air flow separation due to breaking waves on the air- sea momentum flux and concluded that the contribution of breaking waves is increasingly important for younger seas under higher wind speeds. However, the precise effects of surface breaking waves on the drag coefficient are still under investigation and are not yet explicitly calculated in our model. Since the effects of surface breaking waves and sea sprays on the drag coefficient are still uncertain, we instead introduced two purely empirical parameterizations of the drag coefficient based on the recent observations, as shown in Fig. 2. These new formulas are now being tested in the HWRF model. Figure 2. Three sea state independent drag coefficient formulae (C1: parameterization implemented into the operational HWRF and GFDL model; C2: proposed drag formula to saturate at high winds, C3: proposed drag formula to decrease at high wind) are compared with previous observations (symbols with error bars). Different symbols of Powel (2003) indicate estimates from different wind profile ranges. b) Improving momentum flux parameterization in WW3 for hurricane conditions It has been known that the WAVEWATH III (WW3) wave model overestimates the significant wave height under very high wind conditions in strong hurricanes (Tolman et al., 2005; Chao et al., 2005). Moon et al. (2008) suggested that one of the reasons for the overestimation of the significant wave height is due to overestimation of the drag coefficient in high wind conditions. In preparation for coupling of WW3 with HWRF, we have implemented the Moon et al. (2007) drag coefficient formulation into WW3. The effect of wave-current interaction in WW3 was also introduced and investigated under a tropical cyclone wind forcing (Fan et al. 2009a). The model results were compared with field observations of the surface wave spectra from a scanning radar altimeter, NDBC data and satellite altimeter measurements in Hurricane Ivan (2004) (Fig. 3). The results suggest that WW3 with the original drag coefficient parameterization tends to overestimate the significant wave height and the dominant wave length, and it produces a wave spectrum that is higher in wave energy and narrower in directional spreading. When an improved drag parameterization is introduced and the wave-current interaction is included, the model yields an improved forecast of significant wave height and wave spectral energy, but it underestimates the dominant wave length (Figs. 4 and 5). (msï1) 75 30 42040 42039 70 28 42041 26 65 42001 42003 24 60 N) o 22 Sept. 14ï15 55 20 50 Latitude ( 18 Sept. 09 45 16 Sept. 12 40 14 12 35 10 30 ï90 ï85 ï80 ï75 ï70 ï65 Longitude (oW) Figure 3. Left: Hurricane Ivan track from Sept. 6 0:00 UTC to Sept. 10 12:00 UTC. The color and size of the circle represent the maximum wind speed. Black lines represent the flight tracks during the SRA measurements. Right: Swath of maximum significant wave heights produced by WW3 using the original WW3 parameterization (Exp. A), the new parameterization (Exp. B), and the new parameterization with the wave-current interaction (Exp. C). When a hurricane moves over mesoscale ocean features (warm- and cold-core rings, Loop Current), the current response can be significantly modulated by the non-linear interaction of the storm-induced and pre-existing strong currents in the mixed layer. We investigated the role of pre-existent currents due to mesoscale ocean features on wave predictions. Hurricane Ivan in 2004 crossed the Loop Current (LC) and a warm-core ring (WCR) in the Gulf of Mexico. Fortunately, during that time, detailed SRA wave spectra measurements were collected by NASA through a joint effort between the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and NOAA/HRD. These observations were used to investigate whether inclusion of the effect of pre-existent currents may improve the wave predictions using WW3. x10ï4msï1 200 4 300 100 2 ) o 200 HRA 0 0 Exp. A Exp. B Direction ( Exp. C ï100 ï2 100 Distance to eye (km) 2msï1 ï200 ï4 0 ï200 ï100 0 100 200 0 100 200 300 Distance to eye (km) spectrum number 15 400 300 10 200 5 100 dominant wave length (m) Significant wave height (m) 0 0 0 100 200 300 0 100 200 300 spectrum number spectrum number Figure 4. Upper left: WW3 wave field divergence in the run with the new flux parameterization and wave-current interaction at Sept. 9 18:00UTC. The color scale indicates significant wave height in meters; arrow length represents mean wave length, and arrow direction shows mean wave direction. Upper right, bottom right, and bottom left: wave direction, dominant wave length, and significant wave height, respectively. We used the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research (CCAR) altimetry map on September 12, 2004 (Fig. 6a) to identify the position and structure of the LC and the WCR in the Gulf of Mexico. The feature-based modeling procedure of Yablonsky and Ginis (2008) was used to assimilate the altimetry observations into the ocean model (Fig.