The Vertical Structure of a Loop Current Eddy 10.1029/2018JC013801
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Intensity Forecast Experiment of Hurricane Rita (2005) with a Cloud-Resolving, Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Modelling System
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 2149–2156, October 2011 B Intensity forecast experiment of hurricane Rita (2005) with a cloud-resolving, coupled hurricane–ocean modelling system Xin Qiu,a,b Qingnong Xiao,b,c Zhe-Min Tana* and John Michalakesb aKey Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, China bMesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA cCollege of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St Petersburg, Florida, USA *Correspondence to: Z.-M. Tan, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China. E-mail: [email protected] A cloud-resolving, coupled hurricane-ocean modelling system is developed under the Earth System Modeling Framework using state-of-the-art numerical forecasting models of the atmosphere and the ocean. With this system, the importance of coupling to an eddy-resolving ocean model and the high resolution of the atmospheric model for the prediction of intensity change of hurricane Rita (2005) is demonstrated through a set of numerical experiments. The erroneous intensification in the uncoupled experiments could be eliminated when taking account of the negative feedback of sea-surface temperature cooling. Moreover, the deepening rate of Rita becomes larger with higher resolution of the atmospheric model. Nevertheless, the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric model with grid spacing at least less than ∼4 km is required in order to predict the rapid intensity changes of hurricane Rita in the fully coupled experiment. This strong dependence is found to arise from the potential interaction between the ocean coupling and internal processes of Rita, thus indicating that both high resolution and the ocean coupling are indispensable for the future improvement of hurricane intensity prediction. -
Physical Oceanography and Circulation in the Gulf of Mexico
Physical Oceanography and Circulation in the Gulf of Mexico Ruoying He Dept. of Marine, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Scoping Workshop on Terrestrial and Coastal Carbon Fluxes in the Gulf of Mexico St. Petersburg, FL May 6-8, 2008 Adopted from Oey et al. (2005) Adopted from Morey et al. (2005) Averaged field of wind stress for the GOM. [adapted from Gutierrez de Velasco and Winant, 1996] Surface wind Monthly variability Spring transition vs Fall Transition Adopted from Morey et al. (2005) Outline 1. General circulation in the GOM 1.1. The loop current and Eddy Shedding 1.2. Upstream conditions 1.3. Anticyclonic flow in the central and northwestern Gulf 1.4. Cyclonic flow in the Bay of Campeche 1.5. Deep circulation in the Gulf 2. Coastal circulation 2.1. Coastal Circulation in the Eastern Gulf 2.2. Coastal Circulation in the Northern Gulf 2.3. Coastal Circulation in the Western Gulf 1. General Circulation in the GOM 1.1. The Loop Current (LC) and Eddy Shedding Eddy LC Summary statistics for the Loop Current metrics computed from the January1, 1993 through July 1, 2004 altimetric time series Leben (2005) A compilation of the 31-yr Record (July 1973 – June 2004) of LC separation event. The separation intervals vary From a few weeks up to ~ 18 Months. Separation intervals tend to Cluster near 4.5-7 and 11.5, And 17-18.5 months, perhaps Suggesting the possibility of ~ a 6 month duration between each cluster. Leben (2005); Schmitz et al. (2005) Sturges and Leben (1999) The question of why the LC and the shedding process behave in such a semi-erratic manner is a bit of a mystery • Hurlburt and Thompson (1980) found erratic eddy shedding intervals in the lowest eddy viscosity run in a sequence of numerical experiment. -
Predictability of the Loop Current Variation and Eddy Shedding Process in the Gulf of Mexico Using an Artificial Neural Network Approach
1098 JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC TECHNOLOGY VOLUME 32 Predictability of the Loop Current Variation and Eddy Shedding Process in the Gulf of Mexico Using an Artificial Neural Network Approach XIANGMING ZENG,YIZHEN LI, AND RUOYING HE Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina (Manuscript received 15 September 2014, in final form 8 January 2015) ABSTRACT A novel approach based on an artificial neural network was used to forecast sea surface height (SSH) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) in order to predict Loop Current variation and its eddy shedding process. The em- pirical orthogonal function analysis method was applied to decompose long-term satellite-observed SSH into spatial patterns (EOFs) and time-dependent principal components (PCs). The nonlinear autoregressive network was then developed to predict major PCs of the GoM SSH in the future. The prediction of SSH in the GoM was constructed by multiplying the EOFs and predicted PCs. Model sensitivity experiments were conducted to determine the optimal number of PCs. Validations against independent satellite observations indicate that the neural network–based model can reliably predict Loop Current variations and its eddy shedding process for a 4-week period. In some cases, an accurate forecast for 5–6 weeks is possible. 1. Introduction critical importance for both scientific research and so- cietal benefit. For example, in order to mitigate the ad- Originating at the Yucatan Channel and exiting verse impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, through the Florida Straits, the Loop Current (LC) is a intensive research on the LC and LC eddies was per- dominant circulation feature in the Gulf of Mexico formed during and after the incident (e.g., Liu et al. -
Eurico J. D'sa, Dept. of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Coastal
P2.9 COMPARISON OF SEA SURFACE HEIGHTS DERIVED FROM THE NAVY COASTAL OCEAN MODEL WITH SATELLITE ALTIMETRY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO Eurico D’Sa1*, Dong-Shan Ko2, and Mitsuko Korobkin1 1Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 2Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS 1. INTRODUCTION The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is a semi-enclosed sea that connects in the east to the Atlantic ocean through the straits of Florida, and in the south to the Caribbean Sea through the Yucatan channel. The GOM is rich in natural resources and supports a large fisheries and oil and gas industry. The region is also impacted by natural events such as hurricanes necessitating a better understanding of the physical and biogeochemical processes in the region. Numerous field, remote sensing and numerical modeling studies have provided greater insights into various processes in the GOM, especially the Loop Current (LC) and its eddy field that is a dominating feature in the GOM (Maul 1997; Vukovich and Maul 1985; Sturges and Leben 2000; Welsh and Inoue 2000; Oey et al. 2005). Numerical models such as the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) (Hurlburt and Thompson 1980), the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) (Barron et al. 2006), the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) (Chassignet et al. 2005), the University of Colorado version of the Princeton Ocean Model (CUPOM) (Kantha et al. 2005) and remote sensing from altimeters (Leben et al. 2002; Leben 2004) have provided better insights into the LC, its eddies and its interaction with the waters of the GOM. -
Patterns of the Loop Current System and Regions of Sea Surface Height Variability in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Revealed by the Self-Organizing Maps
University of South Florida Scholar Commons Marine Science Faculty Publications College of Marine Science 4-2016 Patterns of the Loop Current System and Regions of Sea Surface Height Variability in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Revealed by the Self-Organizing Maps Yonggang Liu University of South Florida, [email protected] Robert H. Weisberg University of South Florida, [email protected] Stefano Vignudelli Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Area Ricerca CNR Gary T. Mitchum University of South Florida, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/msc_facpub Scholar Commons Citation Liu, Yonggang; Weisberg, Robert H.; Vignudelli, Stefano; and Mitchum, Gary T., "Patterns of the Loop Current System and Regions of Sea Surface Height Variability in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Revealed by the Self-Organizing Maps" (2016). Marine Science Faculty Publications. 273. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/msc_facpub/273 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the College of Marine Science at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Marine Science Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. PUBLICATIONS Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans RESEARCH ARTICLE Patterns of the loop current system and regions of sea surface 10.1002/2015JC011493 height variability in the eastern Gulf of Mexico revealed by the Key Points: self-organizing maps A combined space- and time-domain Self-Organizing Map analysis is Yonggang Liu1, Robert H. Weisberg1, Stefano Vignudelli2, and Gary T. Mitchum1 performed The extracted spatial patterns 1College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. -
Sramsoe295ocr.Pdf
76° 75° 74° 73° ,., .. ~[_ ,I / / / / ()?.~.,.) ·....1 ~ ••..' .,. r"" ("'\ _. .., '-' \ i·.. J -·. \,.•. .. / \ DAVID B. EG LESTON ) I / _.i SEPTE BER 1988 , : -· .~.I' .= 1s• 75° 74° 73° SRAMSOE No. 295 of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Gloucester Point, VA 23062. Remote Sensing of Offshore Water Mass Features: Present and Potential Benefits to Virginia's Recreational Fishery for Marlin and Tuna David B. Eggleston Virginia Institute of Marine Science School of Marine Science College of William and Mary Gloucester Point, Virginia 23062 September 1988 SRAMSOE No. 295 of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, Gloucester Point, VA 23062. 2 INTRODUCTION The distribution, abundance, and catchability of pelagic recreational fishes such as billfishes (Istiophoridae and Xiphidae) and tunas (Scombridae) are markedly influenced by known optimum temperatures and hydrographic frontal zones (Squire, 1962, 1974; Uda, 1973; Mather, et al. 1975; Laurs and Lynn, 1977; Magnuson, et al. 1980, 1981; Rockford, 1981; Shingu, 1981; Sund, et al. 1981; Laurs, et al. 1984). Environmental temperature directly inf·luences fish metabolism which in turn affects life processes such as growth, development, and swimming speed (Laevastu and Hayes, 1983). Temperature effects on the movement, distribution, and nervous system response of fishes are summarized by Sullivan (1954). Sullivan (1954) stated tlhat fish select a certain optimium temperature because of the effect of the same on their movement (activity, sensu Laevastu and Hayes, 1983), and concluded temperature change may act on a fish: 1) as a nervous stimulus, 2) as a modifier of metabolic processes and 3) as a modifier of bodily activity. -
Ocean Surface Current Climatology in the Northern Gulf of Mexico
Ocean Surface Current Climatology in the Northern Gulf of Mexico by Donald R. Johnson Center for Fisheries Research and Development Gulf Coast Research Laboratory University of Southern Mississippi Project funded by the Marine Fisheries Initiative (MARFIN) program of NMFS/NOAA Published by Gulf Coast Research Laboratory Ocean Springs, Mississippi 39564 May 2008 Table of Contents List of Figures ………………………………………1 Abstract ………………………………………2 I. Introduction ………………………………………3 II. Data and Statistics ………………………………………4 A. Scalar ………………………………………6 B. Vector ……………………………………..10 III. Wind Stress Climatology ……………………………………14 IV. Surface Current Patterns ..….....……………………………20 A. Methodology ………...…………………………...20 B. Monthly Averaged Currents .......................................21 Acknowledgements ……………………………………..36 References ……………………………………..37 ii List of Figures: Figure Page 1. Sea Surface Temperature in the Gulf of Mexico 3 2. Location of daily current vectors in data set 4 3. Grid distribution 5 4. Average Speed (Savg) 6 5. Standard Deviation of Speed (Sstd) 7 6. Maximum Speed (Smax) 8 7a. Scatter plot U/V(Dog Key Pass) 9 7b. Scatter plot U/V (South of Petit Bois Island) 9 8. Vector Resultant Speed (Sr) 11 9. Vector Resultant Direction 12 10. Correlation U/V (r) 13 11. Monthly climatological wind stress for the northern Gulf of Mexico. Taken from Harrison(1989). 15-18 12. Climatological wind stress averages for non-summer (upper) And summer (lower) months. 19 13. Example of observed daily currents between year-days 172-192 and within 50 km of a single grid point (red square). The inner red circle is 20 km from the grid point and the outer red circle is 50 km away. 20 14. Weight of current observation vs distance from each grid point. -
The Gulf Stream Structure and Strategy W.Frank Bohlen Mystic, Connecticut [email protected]
The Gulf Stream Structure and Strategy W.Frank Bohlen Mystic, Connecticut [email protected] January, 2012 For the Newport-Bermuda racer the point at which the Gulf Stream is encountered is often considered a juncture as important as the start or finish of the Race. The location, structure and variability of this major ocean current and its effects presents a particular challenge for every navigator/tactician. What is the nature of this challenge and how best might it be addressed ? The Gulf Stream is a portion of the large clockwise current system affecting the entire North Atlantic Ocean. Driven by the wind field over the North Atlantic and the associated distributions of water temperature and salinity, the Gulf Stream is an energetic boundary current separating the warm waters of the Sargasso Sea from the cooler continental shelf waters adjoining New England. The resulting thermal boundary represents one of the most striking features of this current and one that is most easily measured. From Florida to Cape Hatteras the Gulf Stream follows a reasonably well defined northerly track along the outer limits of the U.S. continental shelf. Beyond, to the north of Hatteras, Stream associated flows proceed along a progressively more northeasterly tending track with the main body of the current separating gradually from the shelf. Horizontal flow trajectories in this area, which includes the rhumb line to Bermuda, become increasingly non-linear and wavelike with characteristics similar to those observed in clouds of smoke trailing downwind from a chimney. The resulting large amplitude meanders in the main body of the Stream tend to propagate downstream, towards Europe, and grow in amplitude. -
What Caused the Accelerated Sea Level Changes Along the United States East Coast During 2010-2015?
What caused the accelerated sea level changes along the United States East Coast during 2010-2015? Ricardo Domingues1,2, Gustavo Goni2, Molly Baringer2, Denis Volkov1,2 1Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Florida 2Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, Miami, Florida Corresponding author: Ricardo Domingues ([email protected]) Key points: Accelerated sea level rise recorded between Key West and Cape Hatteras during 2010-2015 was caused by warming of the Florida Current Warming of the Florida Current provided favorable baseline conditions for occurrence of nuisance flooding events recorded in 2015 Temporary sea level decline in 2010-2015 north of Cape Hatteras was mostly caused by changes in atmospheric conditions Abstract: Accelerated sea level rise was observed along the U.S. eastern seaboard south of Cape Hatteras during 2010-2015 with rates five times larger than the global average for the same time-period. Simultaneously, sea levels decreased rapidly north of Cape Hatteras. In this study, we show that accelerated sea level rise recorded between Key West and Cape Hatteras was predominantly caused by a ~1°C (0.2°C/year) warming of the Florida Current during 2010-2015 that was linked to large-scale changes in the Atlantic Warm Pool. We also show that sea level decline north of Cape Hatteras was caused by an increase in atmospheric pressure combined with shifting wind patterns, with a small contribution from cooling of the water column over the continental shelf. Results presented here emphasize that planning and adaptation efforts may benefit from a more thorough assessment of sea level changes induced This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. -
The Relevance of Ocean Surface Current in the ECMWF Analysis and Forecast System
The relevance of ocean surface current in the ECMWF analysis and forecast system Hans Hersbach and Jean-Raymond Bidlot ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, United Kingdom [email protected] ABSTRACT This document describes a preliminary adaptation of the integrated forecast system at ECMWF to incorporate ocean sur- face currents from an external source. An impact study is performed in a data-assimilation environment, which allows for both a proper adjustment of the atmospheric boundary condition and a suitable adaptation of the ingestion of observations that are sensitive to the ocean surface. It is found that the effect on surface stress is only about half of what would have been intuitively obtained by subtraction of the ocean current from the surface wind of a system in which no account for ocean current is given. As a result, compared to the intuitive approach, the effect on wind-generated ocean waves is found to be reduced. 1 Introduction The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has a coupled ocean-atmosphere sys- tem for seasonal and monthly forecasting (Vitart et al., 2008). The seasonal system is fully coupled. The monthly forecasts are at present only coupled from day 10 onwards (which runs at a lower resolution). More- over, in contrast to the seasonal system, that coupling does not include ocean currents. At first sight, the importance of ocean currents seems minor. The strength of typical ocean currents is in the order of a few tenths of ms−1, which is small compared to typical surface wind speed of around 8 ms−1. -
Observation of the Deepwater Manifestation of the Loop Current and Loop Current Rings in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico
OCS Study MMS 2009-050 Coastal Marine Institute Observation of the Deepwater Manifestation of the Loop Current and Loop Current Rings in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico U.S. Department of the Interior Cooperative Agreement Minerals Management Service Coastal Marine Institute Gulf of Mexico OCS Region Louisiana State University OCS Study MMS 2009-050 Coastal Marine Institute Observation of the Deepwater Manifestation of the Loop Current and Loop Current Rings in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Authors Susan E. Welsh Masamichi Inoue Lawrence J. Rouse, Jr. Eddie Weeks October 2009 Prepared under MMS Contract 1435-01-04-CA-32806-36189 (M05AZ10669) by Louisiana State University Coastal Marine Institute Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803 Published by U.S. Department of the Interior Cooperative Agreement Minerals Management Service Coastal Marine Institute Gulf of Mexico OCS Region Louisiana State University DISCLAIMER This report was prepared under contract between the Minerals Management Service (MMS) and Louisiana State University (LSU). This report has been technically reviewed by the MMS, and it has been approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the view and policies of the MMS, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. It is, however, exempt from review and compliance with the MMS editorial standards. REPORT AVAILABILITY This report is available only in compact disc format from the Minerals Management Service, Gulf of Mexico OCS Region, at a charge of $15.00, by referencing OCS Study MMS 2009-050. The report may be downloaded from the MMS website through the Environmental Studies Program Information System (ESPIS). -
The Interaction of Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) with a Warm Ocean Eddy
SEPTEMBER 2005 L I N E T A L . 2635 The Interaction of Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) with a Warm Ocean Eddy I-I LIN AND CHUN-CHIEH WU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan KERRY A. EMANUEL Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts I-HUAN LEE Institute of Marine Geology and Chemistry, National Taiwan Sun Yat-Sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan CHAU-RON WU AND IAM-FEI PUN Department of Earth Science, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan (Manuscript received 28 September 2004, in final form 2 March 2005) ABSTRACT Understanding the interaction of ocean eddies with tropical cyclones is critical for improving the under- standing and prediction of the tropical cyclone intensity change. Here an investigation is presented of the interaction between Supertyphoon Maemi, the most intense tropical cyclone in 2003, and a warm ocean eddy in the western North Pacific. In September 2003, Maemi passed directly over a prominent (700 km ϫ 500 km) warm ocean eddy when passing over the 22°N eddy-rich zone in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Analyses of satellite altimetry and the best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center show that during the 36 h of the Maemi–eddy encounter, Maemi’s intensity (in 1-min sustained wind) shot up from 41 msϪ1 to its peak of 77 m sϪ1. Maemi subsequently devastated the southern Korean peninsula. Based on results from the Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System and satellite microwave sea surface tem- perature observations, it is suggested that the warm eddies act as an effective insulator between typhoons and the deeper ocean cold water.