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2015-The-IFTA-Journal.Pdf IFTA Journal A Professional Journal Published by The International Federation of Technical Analysts 2015 Edition 15 Inside this Issue 6 Optimal f and diversification by Stanislaus Maier-Paape 10 Feeling the Market’s Pulse With Google Trends by Shawn Lim, CFTe, MSTA, and Douglas Stridsberg 89 Know Your System! – Turning Data Mining From Bias to Benefit Through System Parameter Permutation by Dave Walton, MBA Men are born to succeed, not fail. —Henry David Thoreau DO YOU WISH YOU HAD MORE TIME? Are you spending more time adjusting graphics or doing menial editing tasks than analysing charts? Are you frustrated by having no easy way to rapidly find what most needs your attention? How much is this wasted time costing you? We understand. We’re here to help. A recurring message we get from our clients is how thrilled they are that we have taken so much work off their shoulders and given them back so much time. Time is what we want most, but we use worst. William Penn If you are ready to explore how you can claw back your valuable time, go to the following address: mav7.com/time MA Flyer IFTA 2014.indd 1 22/08/2014 11:56:23 AM IFTA JOURNAL 2014 EDITION Letter From the Editor By Aurélia Gerber, MBA, CFA ...........................................................................................................3 EDITORIAL Articles Aurélia Gerber, MBA, CFA (SAMT) Optimal f and Diversification Editor, and Chair of the Editorial Committee [email protected] By Stanislaus Maier-Paape .............................................................................................................4 Editor Feeling the Market’s Pulse With Google Trends Jacinta Chan, Ph.D. By Shawn Lim, CFTe, MSTA, and Douglas Stridsberg ................................................................8 [email protected] Elaine Knuth MFTA Papers [email protected] Identification of High Probability Target Zones (HPTZ) Rolf Wetzer [email protected] By Andrew J.D. Long, MFTA ............................................................................................................ 15 Testing the Effectiveness of Multivariate Wavelet De-noising for Intraday Trading Systems By Adam Cox, MFTA..........................................................................................................................30 Send your queries about advertising information and rates to [email protected] Use of Social Media Mentions in Technical Analysis By Alex Neale, MFTA ..........................................................................................................................51 Enhancing Portfolio Returns and Reducing Risk by Utilizing the Relative Strength Index as a Market Trend Identifier By David Price BSc, MSc, CFTe, MSTA, MFTA ..............................................................................62 Anatomy of a Living Trend: Swing Charts, High Points and Low Points, Peaks and Troughs and How Their Underlying Structure May Define Their Forecasting Strength By Andreas Thalassinos, BSc, MSc, MSTA, CFTe, MFTA .........................................................67 Refining Wilder’s ADX: Adjustment to the Price Actions by Utilizing Closing Prices By Samuel Utomo, CFTe, MFTA ..................................................................................................... 74 The Alternative Head and Shoulders: A New Perspective on A Pre-Eminent Pattern By Fergal Walsh, MFTA ..................................................................................................................82 About cover photo: Wildflowers in meadow during sunset Wagner Award Paper —Photo by Pawel Gaul Know Your System! – Turning Data Mining From Bias to Benefit Through System Parameter Permutation By Dave Walton, MBA ......................................................................................................................87 Book Review Crowd Money: A Practical Guide to Macro Behavioural Technical Analysis—By Eoin Treacy Reviewed By David Hunt .................................................................................................................97 IFTA Board of Directors .............................................................................................................................98 IFTA Staff .....................................................................................................................................................98 Author Profiles ............................................................................................................................................99 IFTA Journal is published yearly by The International Association of Technical Analysts. 9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100, Rockville, MD 20850 USA. © 2014 The International Federation of Technical Analysts. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying for public or private use, or by any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission of the publisher. IFTA.ORG PAGE 1 Hosted by IFTA JOURNAL 2014 EDITION Letter From the Editor By Aurélia Gerber, MBA, CFA Dear IFTA Colleagues and Friends: The theme of this year’s 27th conference in London is “unravelling the DNA of the market”. Times sure have changed—it used to take several rooms full of sequencing machines and millions of dollars to decipher a genome, and now we need only one machine to draft far more complex DNA. Such developments have also been seen in the investment field. The principles of technical analysis remain the same, however; price discounts everything, price movements are not totally random (they move in trends), and history has a tendency to repeat itself. These form the DNA, or the genes, of technical analysis. The IFTA Journal is—through its global distribution to professionals in the field within member societies from 27 countries—one of the most important forums for publishing leading work in technical analysis. This year, the Journal has four sections. In the first section, we have published seven Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) research submissions. This body of work offers fresh ways of looking at the behavior of markets and is testament to the high standing of the MFTA designation. Two articles deal with innovative ways of refining well-known technical indicators. Other themes include the anatomy of living trend structure, denoising using multivariate …unravelling the wavelet algorithm, alternative head and shoulders pattern recognition, integration of multiple Hosted by techniques to define high-probability target zones, and the use of social media in investing. DNA of the market In the second section, one article was submitted by IFTA colleagues from the Society of Technical Analysts (STA) on the use of Google trends for feeling the market’s pulse, and the other from Vereinigung Technischer Analysten Deutschlands (VTAD) on optimal f for money management. Next, with the permission of the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), we are happy to publish a paper by Dave Walton, winner of the NAAIM Wagner Award 2014. We hope that you find this paper most interesting. We also had the support of one book proposal reviewer, David Hunt, on crowd behaviour. This year’s Journal was produced by a returning team for IFTA. I would like to thank, Elaine Knuth, Jacinta Chan and Regina Meani for their help in editing this Journal. Articles were peer reviewed by Elaine Knuth and Rolf Wetzer. We are also able to create this timely and unique journal because of the intellect and generosity of time and materials from the authors. It was their tremendous spirit and endeavour that enabled us to achieve the goals of this high-quality journal. We are indebted to all authors for their contributions and for enabling us to meet our journal submission deadline. Last but not least, we would also like to thank the production team at IFTA, in particular Linda Bernetich, Jon Benjamin, and Lynne Agoston, for their administrative, editorial and publishing work. IFTA.ORG PAGE 3 Optimal f and diversification Stanislaus Maier-Paape Institut f¨urMathematik, RWTH Aachen Templergraben 55, 52062 Aachen, Germany [email protected] and SMP Financial Engineering GmbH Weiherstraße 14, 52134 Herzogenrath, Germany November 28, 2013 IFTA JOURNAL 2015 EDITION Many traders and investors know that diversified depots have many benefits compared with single invest- ments. The distribution of risks on many shoulders reduces the risk of a portfolio remarkably while at the same time the return stays unchanged. On the other hand, the return of a portfolio can be maximized subject to a predefined risk level. In the Portfolio Theory of Markowitz (cf. [3]) these facts are formally Optimal f and Diversificationderived. As a byproduct, this ansatz yields concrete position sizes for single assets in order to build the optimal By Stanislaus Maier-Paape portfolio. This ansatz does, however, not regard the possible drawdown of the portfolio since the risk is measured solely via the standard deviation. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate, that diversified depots are also suitable to reduce possible (maximal) drawdowns, while not lowering ones sight on the return. Optimal f and Kelly betting Abstract Vince [4] and [5]). In particular when large distributions of possible For our demonstration we choose the “optimal f ” ansatz, that means position sizing that uses always a fixed In this paper we use the optimal f / Kelly betting ansatz for trading
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