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Dated 7Th February 2020 7TH FEBRUARY 2020 THE REALITY BEHIND EUROPE MONTHLY £3.50 The cost of EU membership e have included the intellectual justification for the figure.] following as a reminder to existence of EEC and later the EU and So let us put that into a naive cash Wall those who wondered the driver for even greater political and figure from the IMF data. why we are leaving the EU. economic union is wholly and entirely UK GDP in 2015 according to the “Many people have questioned the misconceived. That would mean the IMF data was the US dollar equivalent actual cost of EU membership to the whole of Europe has been paying a of US$2.7 trillion. [The IMF figures taxpayers’ of the UK. What follows is heavy price to Brussels and in lost are Gross domestic product based on an attempt to find out! GDP over decades for nothing. It also purchasing-power-parity (PPP)]. This interesting analysis in terms of takes away the rationale for increased UK GDP is projected by the IMF to EU membership, asks how much European social, political, economic rise in 2021 to approaching US$3.4 poorer has the UK become year-on- and military union. Trillion. year in cash terms? And how much There is a better rationale for such For the 2015 figure 13.8% is poorer is the UK today as a union but it is not the one seemingly US$370 Billion extra GDP. consequence of the cumulative effect driving the EU and its foundations are And on the basis of the projection on the nation’s wealth over 46 years of also structurally constitutionally and for 2021, that is an addition to GDP of lower annual growth? What would UK politically inappropriate for such a US$470 Billion. GDP be today? role. Is there were a way to estimate The following figures are solely for How much that might mean in reliably what UK annual growth might illustration and are not and cannot be either total tax generating revenue for have been if the UK had never joined considered a reliable estimate of what Government or for tax cuts is an the European Project? [I think that is the UK has been losing by being part interesting question. What is the unlikely beyond guesswork but I could of the European Project. T h e Government revenue for every £1 be wrong]. underlying assumption is the UK has generated in GDP? So how much extra To put this into terms we all can had lower annual GDP growth during would there have been for the NHS? understand - in hard cash terms what is its membership of the European Higher or lower than £350 Million the potential scale of how much poorer Project than it would have had out of pasted on the side of a big red bus? the UK has been getting year-on-year it. Was that figure far too low when the as a member of the European project? The calculations here are purely to loss of cumulative and annual losses to And how much in cash terms over 46 indicate a potential scale of loss each GDP are taken into account? years has the UK lost through year to the overall wealth of the UK But of course if the UK was membership of the European Project? over the 46 years membership of the generating an extra 0.3% GDP each Also bear in mind the hypothesis in European Project. year that [crudely analysed for the my earlier article [for which there Let us get out our crystal ball. simplicity of illustration] is crudely is evidence] that the EEC and EU have Assume the UK would have had 0.3% equivalent to something extra being always been irrelevant to maintaining higher annual average GDP growth added every year to the nation’s wealth peace in Europe: that the main driver over last 46 years if it had never joined - so there is a compound effect of the of peace in Europe has been near the European Project. And let us make extra each year contributing to the exponential economic growth post this very very simple. A most naive overall wealth of the nation - in other World War II. In other words, an calculation would place the UK with words there is a potential capital unparalled period of growth and 13.8% higher GDP today - [ignoring accumulation over time in addition to prosperity has meant people are too the compounding effect each year of the potential extra revenue generated busy making money to go to war and average annual growth on all the prior annually.” certainly may lack the motivation in increments of average annual growth. periods of great economic stability. Compounding growth on growth could Final part of “The EU no one voted If that is correct then the main conceivably make that a higher for” in November issue of eurofacts. INSIDE: How Brexit gives hope to the long-suffering Greeks p 2 – The EU’s current version of equality p 2 - Book review - The Strange Death Of Europe p 3 – UK employment level rises again p 3 - EU companies moving to UK p 3 – Post UK election economic boost p 3 - The siege of London: A capital at odds with its country over Brexit p 7 – Letters p 9 VOL 25 NO 6 How Brexit gives hope to the long-suffering Greeks his article was first published on 2017, and was still as high as 121,349 relief when these uncertainties are the Campaign for an in 2019. resolved. TIndependent Britain (CIB) web The UK departure creates an The Greek governments were not site on the 16th January. important precedent that gives hope to happy with the final departure outcome the many Greek people who want to of the UK, but have emphasised that “The Greek Ambassador Leonidas leave the EU: that one day, they too calm must prevail. They suggest that C h r y s a n t h o p o u l o s explains how will be able to achieve their the UK’s exit does not mean the end of Brexit offers hope to the Greek people independence. the EU but a new beginning. T h e that one day, they too may be able to There is another category of Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Greece achieve their independence. The citizens who are concerned about the has created a website to help Greek Greeks have suffered greatly at the UK’s departure from the EU. It is those citizens and also UK citizens residing hands of the EU, which imposed on it people who have close ties to the UK, in Greece receive answers to their an extreme form of austerity over the particularly relatives of people concerns over the departure of the UK. past decade – with tragic working, studying, or who have Greece at present is mostly consequences. business interests there. preoccupied at this time with an According to UK government aggressive Turkey that is trying to When the issue of the UK’s statistics, there are more than 12,000 restrict Greece’s access to departure from the EU was finally Greek nationals employed in the UK. hydrocarbons in the East settled by the December 2019 election This category of concerned Greeks is Mediterranean, and with the result, many in Greece saw it as a worried about the repercussions of uncontrollable influx of refugee- victory against the EU establishment Brexit for their relatives in the UK, and migrants to the country. Yet despite the that has done everything possible to in particular how it will affect their personal concerns mentioned above, a reverse the outcome of the 2016 work there, their residence permits, great number of its citizens are happy referendum. their social security benefits etc. with Brexit, since it gives them hope Us Greeks have painful experience The parents of students at UK that it may be possible in the near with the EU ignoring referendum universities are worried that tuition future to renegotiate the so-called debt results. 61.3% of Greek voters voted costs may double or triple after arrangements with its lenders, or even against further austerity measures in departure. Business people are to exit the EU if the people of Greece our referendum of July 2015, only to concerned about the changes that vote for an anti-EU political party. see the result reversed by the adoption departure will bring to their The more that the UK’s full exit of further austerity measures just one commercial transactions with the UK takes place smoothly, the more it month later. as well as the Greek shipping becomes possible for Greece and other The cumulative austerity forced on companies that are established in countries to exit the EU. Yet vigilance Greece by the EU resulted in the loss London. is still required, since the EU of 28% of our national income, There are also fears that the tourist establishment may strike again during unemployment at 27% (compared to sector might be hit, since about 2.5 the negotiations for the settlement 7% before austerity), with youth million UK citizens visit Greece every agreement.” unemployment at more than 65%. We year. These are all issues that will be suffered a wave of suicides as a result. dealt with in the settlement agreement Source: The annual number of deaths rocketed that will be negotiated between the UK Web Site www.campaignforanindep from 70,830 in 2013 to 124,832 in and the EU this year, and it will be a endentbritain.org.uk The EU’s current version of equality he European Parliaments Brexit Guy Verhofstadt said he has been same assurances for UK citizens living Tco-ordinator has confirmed that he given the assurance at a meeting with in the EU.
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