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The Determinants of Military Mutinies University of Kentucky UKnowledge Theses and Dissertations--Political Science Political Science 2018 THINGS FALL APART: THE DETERMINANTS OF MILITARY MUTINIES Jaclyn M. Johnson University of Kentucky, [email protected] Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.13023/ETD.2018.190 Right click to open a feedback form in a new tab to let us know how this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Johnson, Jaclyn M., "THINGS FALL APART: THE DETERMINANTS OF MILITARY MUTINIES" (2018). Theses and Dissertations--Political Science. 25. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/polysci_etds/25 This Doctoral Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Political Science at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations--Political Science by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STUDENT AGREEMENT: I represent that my thesis or dissertation and abstract are my original work. Proper attribution has been given to all outside sources. I understand that I am solely responsible for obtaining any needed copyright permissions. I have obtained needed written permission statement(s) from the owner(s) of each third-party copyrighted matter to be included in my work, allowing electronic distribution (if such use is not permitted by the fair use doctrine) which will be submitted to UKnowledge as Additional File. I hereby grant to The University of Kentucky and its agents the irrevocable, non-exclusive, and royalty-free license to archive and make accessible my work in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I agree that the document mentioned above may be made available immediately for worldwide access unless an embargo applies. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of my work. I understand that I am free to register the copyright to my work. REVIEW, APPROVAL AND ACCEPTANCE The document mentioned above has been reviewed and accepted by the student’s advisor, on behalf of the advisory committee, and by the Director of Graduate Studies (DGS), on behalf of the program; we verify that this is the final, approved version of the student’s thesis including all changes required by the advisory committee. The undersigned agree to abide by the statements above. Jaclyn M. Johnson, Student Dr. Clayton L. Thyne, Major Professor Dr. Justin Wedeking, Director of Graduate Studies THINGS FALL APART: THE DETERMINANTS OF MILITARY MUTINIES DISSERTATION A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Kentucky By Jaclyn M. Johnson Lexington KY Director: Dr. Clayton L. Thyne, Associate Professor of Political Science Lexington, Kentucky 2018 Copyright © Jaclyn M. Johnson ABSTRACT OF DISSERTATION THINGS FALL APART: THE DETERMINANTS OF MILITARY MUTINIES Military mutinies are occurring more frequently in the last two decades than ever before. Mutinies impact every region of the world. Given that they are occurring more frequently, impact every region, and often have disastrous implications, scholars must answer the foundational question: why do mutinies occur? What are the proximate domestic conditions that give rise to military mutinies? This project makes three contributions. First, I set out to formally define mutinies and collect a new dataset that will allow scholars to examine mutinies empirically. Second, I present a theoretical framework that explains when and why mutinies will occur. Finally, I present three novel empirical tests of the theory. The first portion of this dissertation defines mutinies and describes the data collection process. I present the Military Mutinies and Defections Databases (MMDD). Using news articles from various sources, I code 460 mutiny events from 1945 – present day. I code a number of other variables that give users details about the event, such as: whether or not violence was used, whether or not civilians were killed, and whether or not soldiers defected from the military apparatus. Next, I utilize a nested principal agent model to describe when mutinies are likely to occur. Agent models describe hierarchical relationships of delegation. A nested structure allows for multiple agents and multiple principals in a given model. I apply this nested structure to the military to generate three various nests. The first examines foot soldiers as an agent of the military leadership. In this nest, policy failures (e.g., bad strategy) secured by the military leadership will drive foot soldier mutinies. The second nest explores foot soldiers as agents of the executive, a civilian principal. In this nest, I expect that situations that place soldiers in conflict with the executive will generate shirking. The final nest considers foot soldiers and military leadership as collective agents of the executive. I theorize that risk aversion and divergent preferences will drive shirking, or mutinies, in this nested structure. The final nest presents an interesting trade-off for a coup-worried leader. I argue that while executives can utilize regime securing strategies, such strategies might actually agitate the military and drive low level military rebellions. Coup proofing, a common practice among executives that are worried they will be ousted by the military, effectively wards of coups but can generate unintended consequences. Specifically, I expect that counterbalancing measures and other coup proofing tactics should spur mutinies because the intended purpose of these measures is to create coordination challenges which likely spur military splintering. The first empirical chapter sets out to explore the relationship between civil conflict and the likelihood of mutinies. I expect that when civil wars are extremely bloody or long lasting, mutinies will be more likely as war-weary soldiers no longer want to invest in the war effort. I find evidence that indeed civil war intensity and duration contribute to the probability of a state experiencing a mutiny. The second empirical chapter explores scenarios that pit foot soldiers preferences against the executive’s. I expect that scenarios that impose steep costs on foot soldiers, yet provide some benefit to the executive are likely to spur mutinies. I find evidence that protest events and divisionary conflict spur mutinies. The final empirical chapter explores the military apparatus as a whole. I find that coup proofing measures increase the likelihood of mutinies. Additionally, I find that scenarios that are likely to spur widespread dissent among military actors will increase the likelihood of a mutiny in the context of steep coordination challenges that stifle coup activity. The final chapter concludes by providing policy recommendations. I offer recommendations for leader states (e.g., major powers and democratic leaders in the international system) and for states experiencing mutinies. I conclude by discussing the many possible extensions for this project. This section seeks to emphasis the fact that this is a young, novel research program with many promising avenues for future research. KEYWORDS: Mutiny, Military, Civil-Military Relations, Coups, Coup Proofing Jaclyn M. Johnson________ April 2018______________ THINGS FALL APART: THE DETERMINANTS OF MILITARY MUTINIES By Jaclyn M. Johnson Dr. Clayton L. Thyne_____________ Director of Dissertation Dr. Justin Wedeking______________ Director of Graduate Studies April 2018______________________ For my parents (Kurt and Jodie) and grandparents (Noah and Rosemary; Patricia and George). May this project be one small payment towards the huge debt of gratitude I owe all of you. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are many people who have tirelessly supported my journey to this point. My gratitude is summarized briefly here, but extends well beyond the bounds of these pages. To begin, my family has provided a constant stream of support through this process. Without the lessons my mother and father taught me early (and constantly), I would have never made it through this marathon. The principals of hard work, dedication, perseverance, and pride that I managed to harness came only from the lessons that they taught me and the examples they led. They will never know the impact their love has had during the most challenging moments. I would also like to thank my Grandfather (Noah) who had a tremendous impact on my desire to finish this project. After being raised a poor farm kid in East Tennessee, hitchhiking daily to college to complete a bachelor’s degree in chemistry, he went on to pursue a PhD in nuclear physics. He is the original scholar of the family. The original Dr. Johnson would beam with pride when we talked about my work in graduate school. He passed in mid-2017, as I was approaching the end of this project. Although he never saw it completed, I know that he is proud. I thank him for always being interested in my work and believing in my ability to also be Dr. Johnson. Finally, my siblings have supported this journey in many ways. Mac was always there for a laugh and Mollie, who has the biggest heart I’ve ever seen, was a tireless cheerleader. Without my committee, none of this work would have been possible. First, Clayton has had a tremendous impact as my advisor. Clayton was always there when I met a stumbling block. I know that he not only supports me professionally, but also personally. I would also like to thank his wife, Megan, and their three girls for becoming a support system and pseudo-family when I was missing my own. Emily Beaulieu, and her dedication to supporting women in our discipline, has made a lasting impact not only on my career but our discipline more broadly. I am thankful to her for opening my eyes to problems in professional life but also giving me a strong set of tools to handle such hardships. I am grateful to Daniel Morey for his careful reading of my work.
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