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Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Ivan
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Ivan 2-24 September 2004 Stacy R. Stewart National Hurricane Center 16 December 2004 Updated 27 May 2005 to revise damage estimate Updated 11 August 2011 to revise damage estimate Ivan was a classical, long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that reached Category 5 strength three times on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS). It was also the strongest hurricane on record that far south east of the Lesser Antilles. Ivan caused considerable damage and loss of life as it passed through the Caribbean Sea. a. Synoptic History Ivan developed from a large tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on 31 August. Although the wave was accompanied by a surface pressure system and an impressive upper-level outflow pattern, associated convection was limited and not well organized. However, by early on 1 September, convective banding began to develop around the low-level center and Dvorak satellite classifications were initiated later that day. Favorable upper-level outflow and low shear environment was conducive for the formation of vigorous deep convection to develop and persist near the center, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed around 1800 UTC 2 September. Figure 1 depicts the “best track” of the tropical cyclone’s path. The wind and pressure histories are shown in Figs. 2a and 3a, respectively. Table 1 is a listing of the best track positions and intensities. Despite a relatively low latitude (9.7o N), development continued and it is estimated that the cyclone became Tropical Storm Ivan just 12 h later at 0600 UTC 3 September. -
Samantha Santeiu 02-15-09 Sec. 9, Dave Defina Chasing a Storm
Samantha Santeiu 02-15-09 Sec. 9, Dave DeFina Chasing a Storm Specific Purpose Statement : To inform my audience how meteorologists chase storms and about the importance of storm chasing in meteorological research. Central Idea : Storm chasing requires special tools and software; chases follow a general procedure on the chase day; and chasing has great importance in meteorological research. Pattern of Organization : topical. INTRODUCTION It’s September, 1900, in Galveston, Texas. Isaac Cline, a well-known climatologist, rides his horse and buggy along the beach. He’s here to observe the unusually high, gusting winds and huge waves crashing onshore. He orders the people of Galveston to evacuate. [VISUAL AID] Little did he know, he had just chased the massive Galveston hurricane of 1900 that would proceed to kill at least 6,000 people in the area. According to “A Brief History of Storm Chasing” on the National Association of Storm Chasers and Spotters website, this is one of the first accounts of storm chasing that we have. How about this: how many of you have seen the movie Twister ? [VISUAL AID] The basic storyline is that two people are storm chasers, and in the end they chase an epically huge tornado in the name of research. That is a more modern, albeit a bit inaccurate, account of storm chasing. I would like to inform you today about chasing storms, the way meteorologists do it. I plan to research severe storms as a career, so I have investigated the topic thoroughly and interviewed peers and professors on the subject. While storm chasing may seem like fun, there’s actually a lot involved. -
Riding the Storm
physicsworld.com Careers Riding the storm out A career in severe-weather research offers flexibility and plenty of opportunities to experience the fascinating physics of the rotating fluid called the atmosphere. Josh Wurman describes the science of storm-chasing and why hurricanes are scarier than tornadoes Take me to the weather Josh Wurman enjoys the freedom that being a freelance meteorologist affords him. I am standing on a bridge near the North thematical, essentially applied fluid dynam- mapped out the winds inside tornadoes, so Carolina coast. There is a light breeze, and I ics, and the real-world effects of these equa- no-one really knew how strong they were. am enjoying some hazy sunshine. But this tions can be seen every day. The equations After reading the relevant literature, I de- calm is an illusion: in a few minutes winds of of motion for the atmosphere cause trees to cided that a more ambitious technological up to 45 m s–1 (100 mph) will sweep in again. be blown down, hail to fall and snowdrifts and logistical approach could push back the The approaches to my section of the bridge to pile up – all things that I could witness veil of ignorance about these fascinating phe- are already drowned under 2.5 m of water, while growing up in Pennsylvania. nomena. So in 1994 I decided to shift focus, and my companions on this island are an I started out as a physics major at the Mas- leaving NCAR for a faculty position at the eclectic mix of traumatized animals, inclu- sachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), University of Oklahoma, where I developed ding snakes, rats, wounded pelicans and but my real interest was meteorology, in a prototype mobile weather radar system frogs. -
Skywarn Storm Spotter Guide
Skywarn Storm Spotter Guide ...For Western Nevada and Eastern California... National Weather Service Reno, Nevada CONTENTS Introduction........................................................................................................... 3 A Note to Amateur Radio Operators..................................................................... 4 Who to Call........................................................................................................... 5 NWS Reno County Warning Area Map ................................................................ 6 What to Report -Tornadoes / Severe Thunderstorms ......................................................... 7 -Heavy Rain/Flooding ................................................................................ 8 -Winter Storms......................................................................................... 10 -Fog/Other ............................................................................................... 11 Estimating Precipitation Intensity........................................................................ 12 Beaufort Wind Scale........................................................................................... 13 Handy Dandy Hail Size Estimator....................................................................... 14 After the Storm ................................................................................................... 15 Watch/Warning/Advisory Criteria........................................................................ 16 Sources -
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & a Brief Look at the 18
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & A Brief Look At The 18 June 2010 Derecho Gino Izzi National Weather Service, Chicago IL Outline • Meteorology 301: Squall lines – Brief review of thunderstorm basics – Squall lines – Squall line tornadoes – Mesovorticies • Storm spotting for squall lines • Brief Case Study of 18 June 2010 Event Thunderstorm Ingredients • Moisture – Gulf of Mexico most common source locally Thunderstorm Ingredients • Lifting Mechanism(s) – Fronts – Jet Streams – “other” boundaries – topography Thunderstorm Ingredients • Instability – Measure of potential for air to accelerate upward – CAPE: common variable used to quantify magnitude of instability < 1000: weak 1000-2000: moderate 2000-4000: strong 4000+: extreme Thunderstorms Thunderstorms • Moisture + Instability + Lift = Thunderstorms • What kind of thunderstorms? – Single Cell – Multicell/Squall Line – Supercells Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? – Short/simplistic answer: CAPE vs Shear Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? (Longer/more complex answer) – Lot we don’t know, other factors (besides CAPE/shear) include • Strength of forcing • Strength of CAP • Shear WRT to boundary • Other stuff Thunderstorm Types • Multi-cell squall lines most common type of severe thunderstorm type locally • Most common type of severe weather is damaging winds • Hail and brief tornadoes can occur with most the intense squall lines Squall Lines & Spotting Squall Line Terminology • Squall Line : a relatively narrow line of thunderstorms, often -
The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center
AUGUST 1999 CORFIDI 507 The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center STEPHEN F. C ORFIDI NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 12 August 1998, in ®nal form 15 January 1999) ABSTRACT An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center's immediate history dates to the middle of the twentieth century, the nation's ®rst centralized severe weather forecast effort actually appeared much earlier with the pioneering work of Army Signal Corps of®cer J. P. Finley in the 1870s. Little progress was made in the understanding or forecasting of severe convective weather after Finley until the nascent aviation industry fostered an interest in meteorology in the 1920s. Despite the increased attention, forecasts for tornadoes remained a rarity until Air Force forecasters E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller gained notoriety by correctly forecasting the second tornado to strike Tinker Air Force Base in one week on 25 March 1948. The success of this and later Fawbush and Miller efforts led the Weather Bureau (predecessor to the National Weather Service) to establish its own severe weather unit on a temporary basis in the Weather Bureau± Army±Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center Washington, D.C., in March 1952. The WBAN severe weather unit became a permanent, ®ve-man operation under the direction of K. M. Barnett on 21 May 1952. The group was responsible for the issuance of ``bulletins'' (watches) for tornadoes, high winds, and/or damaging hail; outlooks for severe convective weather were inaugurated in January 1953. -
SKYWARN Detailed Documentation
SKYWARN Detailed Documentation NWS Terminology Convective Outlook Categories Risk Description 0 - Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of General thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period. 1 - An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low Marginal coverage and marginal intensity. An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with 2 - Slight varying levels of intensity. 3 - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying Enhanced levels of intensity. An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous 4 - severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is Moderate usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds. An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This 5 - High risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events). Hazardous Weather Risks Risk Description An advisory is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, imminent, or likely. Advisories are for "less serious" conditions than warnings that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution is not exercised could lead to Advisory situations that may threaten life or property. The National Weather Service may activate weather spotters in areas affected by advisories to help them better track and analyze the event. -
Storm Spotting – Solidifying the Basics PROFESSOR PAUL SIRVATKA COLLEGE of DUPAGE METEOROLOGY Focus on Anticipating and Spotting
Storm Spotting – Solidifying the Basics PROFESSOR PAUL SIRVATKA COLLEGE OF DUPAGE METEOROLOGY HTTP://WEATHER.COD.EDU Focus on Anticipating and Spotting • What do you look for? • What will you actually see? • Can you identify what is going on with the storm? Is Gilbert married? Hmmmmm….rumor has it….. Its all about the updraft! Not that easy! • Various types of storms and storm structures. • A tornado is a “big sucky • Obscuration of important thing” and underneath the features make spotting updraft is where it forms. difficult. • So find the updraft! • The closer you are to a storm the more difficult it becomes to make these identifications. Conceptual models Reality is much harder. Basic Conceptual Model Sometimes its easy! North Central Illinois, 2-28-17 (Courtesy of Matt Piechota) Other times, not so much. Reality usually is far more complicated than our perfect pictures Rain Free Base Dusty Outflow More like reality SCUD Scattered Cumulus Under Deck Sigh...wall clouds! • Wall clouds help spotters identify where the updraft of a storm is • Wall clouds may or may not be present with tornadic storms • Wall clouds may be seen with any storm with an updraft • Wall clouds may or may not be rotating • Wall clouds may or may not result in tornadoes • Wall clouds should not be reported unless there is strong and easily observable rotation noted • When a clear slot is observed, a well written or transmitted report should say as much Characteristics of a Tornadic Wall Cloud • Surface-based inflow • Rapid vertical motion (scud-sucking) • Persistent • Persistent rotation Clear Slot • The key, however, is the development of a clear slot Prof. -
Explaining the Trends and Variability in the United States Tornado Records
www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices Niloufar Nouri1*, Naresh Devineni1,2*, Valerie Were2 & Reza Khanbilvardi1,2 The annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950–2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacifc Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefcients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their uncertainty. The infuence of the anthropogenic factors and the large-scale climate variables are modeled in a nested framework to unravel secular trend from cyclical variability. Population density explains the long-term trend in Dixie Alley. The step-increase induced due to the installation of the Doppler Radar systems explains the long-term trend in Tornado Alley. NAO and the interplay between NAO and ENSO explained the interannual to multi-decadal variability in Tornado Alley. PDO and AMO are also contributing to this multi-time scale variability. SOI and AO explain the cyclical variability in Dixie Alley. This improved understanding of the variability and trends in tornadoes should be of immense value to public planners, businesses, and insurance-based risk management agencies. -
2005 SKYWARN Agenda
2019 ND Severe Summer Weather Awareness Week Fact Sheet Are you Weather-Ready? North Dakota Severe Summer Weather Awareness Week is set for April 29 through May 3, 2019. Awareness weeks in North Dakota are joint efforts of many agencies, including but not limited to, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), NDDES (North Dakota Department of Emergency Services), the North Dakota Broadcasters Association, your local emergency manager, and NWS (National Weather Service). Local emergency managers and media partners get the word out about severe weather in North Dakota, helping people to be prepared. Severe Summer Weather Awareness Week is designed to heighten awareness about the coming severe weather season. In this case, to get us thinking less about winter storms and more about thunderstorm hazards such as lightning, hail, high wind, flash floods, and tornadoes. FEMA recommends in their "America's PrepareAthon!" initiative - Be Smart (informed), Take Part (practice drills), and Prepare (have a plan). Be Ready! On Wednesday, May 1, we recommend practicing tornado drills in communities, at schools, at places of business, and at home. Each community, school district, county and Tribal Government will decide whether or not to practice drills and to what extent. Some schools and businesses / factories will conduct a drill for their students / staff / employees and some will not. Some communities will test outdoor warning sirens and some will not. The NWS has no authority over what action is or is not taken. That decision is left to local officials and business owners. We do, of course, recommend safety measures be reviewed and drills be practiced. -
STORM DOCTOR a Storm Chasing Physician’S First-Hand Account
JOURNAL OF Civi lDEFENSE VOLUME 45 2012 ISSUE STORM DOCTOR A Storm Chasing Physician’s First-Hand Account CIVIL DEFENSE REDUX - It’s Back Psychology of Survival ANOTHER WAY TO BE PREPARED Social Media Lessons from the Joplin, Missouri Tornado Ways YOU Can Help PROTECTING FUEL SUPPLIES Preserve and Restore Your Fuel Supply NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN CLEAN, SAFE, WATER AQUA RAIN Ceramic Water Filtration Systems for Emergencies The AquaRain® Natural Water Filter will pro - vide your family and loved ones with lab - oratory proven safe drinking water without electricity, without plumbing, and without pressure or chemical pre-treatments. Its patented space-age ceram - ic technology positive - ly removes danger - As low As ous living organ - $ .96 isms and harmful 184 bacteria from your drinking water 1-800-425-5397 naturally, using micro-filtration and gravity. Here is what may be the best VISIT OUR STORE AT part. The AquaRain® can produce quali - ty drinking water for less than 2¢ per gallon! www.tacda.org JOURNAL OF Civil DEFENSE BOARD OF DIRECTORS Dr. GarY M. Sandquist (President) Sharon Packer (Secretary, Treasurer) JaY R. WhimpeY William D. Perkins Dr. Gerald LooneY IN TH IS ISSUE Bronius Cikotas Dr. Charles CoX Dr. TammY TaYlor Storm Doctor 3 By Jason Persoff, M.D. ADVISORS . Paul SeYfried Is Your Vehicle Prepared? 10 By D6 Survivor Chuck FenWick Dr. Jane Orient Michael G. BaZinet 5 Reasons Why Beans Should be a Staple Dr. Landon Beales 11 in Your Food Storage Dr. Dane Dickson 6 By Jodie and Julie (www.foodstoragemadeeasy.net) Sid Ogden Jonathan Jones KYlene Jones Civil Defense Redux Dr. -
Storm-Chasers.Pdf
By Jim Aaron Vocabulary apprentice atmosphere chemical club essay manufacturing pressure scales Word count: 1,585 Note: The total word count includes words in the running text and headings only. Numerals and words in chapter titles, captions, labels, diagrams, charts, graphs, sidebars, and extra features are not included. Storm Chasers By Jim Aaron Glenview, Illinois • Boston, Massachusetts • Chandler, Arizona • Upper Saddle River, New Jersey Photographs Every effort has been made to secure permission and provide appropriate credit for photographic material. The publisher deeply regrets any omission and pledges to correct errors called to its attention in subsequent editions. Unless otherwise acknowledged, all photographs are the property of Pearson Education, Inc. Photo locators denoted as follows: Top (T), Center (C), Bottom (B), Left (L), Right (R), Background (Bkgd) Opener ©A.T. Willett/Alamy Images; 1 ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy; 4 World Perspectives/ Taxi/Getty Images; 5 (Inset) ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy, (Bkgd) Doug Allan/Getty Images; 6 NOAA; 7 (T) David J. Phillip/©AP Images, (B) Marko Georgiev/Getty Images; 8 United States Department of the Interior; 9 NOAA; 10 NOAA; 11 Richard Cooke / Alamy Images; 12 Roger Ressmeyer/Corbis; 13 (Inset) ©Reuters/Corbis, (T) National Hurricane Cente/AFP/Getty Images; 14 (T) NOAA, (B) Wilfredo Lee/©AP Images; 15 Jim Reed/ Corbis; 16 Everett Collection, Inc.; 18 Jim West/Alamy Images; 19 Jupiter Images. ISBN 13: 978-0-328-51648-3 ISBN 10: 0-328-51648-1 Copyright © by Pearson Education, Inc., or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. This publication is protected by copyright, and permission should be obtained from the publisher prior to any prohibited reproduction, storage in a retrieval system, or transmission in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or likewise.