NIGER Food Security Update May 2009 The winter growing season has been gradually getting Figure 1. Most likely food security scenario for April underway in most farming areas of the south since the through June 2009 first dekad of May. Agropastoralists, pastoralists, and poor urban households in Loga, Doutchi, Tahoua, Illéla, Keita, Bouza, Gouré, and Mainé Soroa departments in the Tillabery region are suffering from poor food and seed access with the depletion of their reserves and the high price of grain, which is outstripping their purchasing power. However, the magnitude of the impact of these shocks on household food access will depend on the progress of the growing season in July and August. Malnutrition rates are still a source of concern. Right now, 400 to 1,400 children under the age of five per 100,000 are acutely malnourished in the Maradi, Tahoua, and Zinder regions. For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale Source: FEWS NET Niger Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events Source: FEWS NET Overview of the current food situation In general, the food situation in the country’s most densely populated departments ranges from good to fair, despite the normal drawdown of household food reserves at this time of year, the beginning of the so‐called “pre‐hunger season.” A look at the food situation shows good food availability on local markets, which is tempering the short‐term negative effects of the high price of grain. Another factors helping to ease food insecurity problems for poor and middle‐income households is seasonal return migration by youths, providing households with a large infusion of funds. The beginning of the growing FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Niamey 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 00 227 20 31 71 33 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/niger NIGER Food Security Update May 2009 season also presents an opportunity for youths to hire themselves out as paid farmhands to bring in extra income to strengthen household food security conditions. However, for poor households in farming areas, the month of May marks the beginning of the typical hunger season, as reflected in the normal deterioration in food security indicators at this time of year. The depletion of household food and forage reserves and the need to purchase food and animal feed at seasonally high prices are examples of factors eroding physical and financial household resources. Costs associated with the start‐up of farming activities, such as the cost of seed and wages paid to farmhands by poor households suffering from a shortage of family workers are additional sources of financial pressure. Right now, labor is in short supply until the return of the migrant workforce. These expenditures force poor households to borrow from wealthier households, putting additional pressure on their meager financial resources. All these factors are putting more and more households in moderate to high food insecurity (Figure 1). The household food situation in most pastoral and agropastoral areas of Bouza, Dakoro, Tahoua, Keita, Tessaoua, and Illéla has visibly deteriorated following shortages of pasture and water and the high cost of animal feed supplements. The poor condition of roads and ongoing civil security problems are also important factors. Animal weights are suffering and grain prices are running high compared with the nominal five‐year average and nominal prices at the same time last year. Financial pressure from the deteriorating terms of trade for pastoralists and systematic purchases of animal feed has poor pastoralist households facing high levels of food insecurity in May of this year, until the expected onset of the rains in June and July which is accompanied by the growth of fresh pasture. Table 1: General status of at-risk areas by level of vulnerability to food insecurity Characteristics based on the SAP (National Early Region Department Area Villages Population Warning System) food insecurity scale Highly food‐insecure: indicators of moderate food Tahoua Birni N'Konni Galmi (South) 8 14 550 insecurity are widespread Maradi Tessaoua Maïjirgui 6 14 424 Moderately food‐insecure: cutback in the number of Agadez Tchirozérine Dabaga 10 4 979 daily meals, consumption of famine foods, unusual Tillabery Ouallam Banibangou 23 36 110 offerings of young female breeding animals on local Tahoua Bouza Karofane 13 15 172 markets, and sales of personal effects by large numbers of households due to food insecurity Agadez Arlit Iférouane 6 8 258 problems in certain pockets within these areas Tillabery Say Torodi 65 105 024 Slightly food‐insecure, with warning signs: cutback in Tahoua Tchintabaraden Tassara 22 18 582 the number of daily meals, consumption of famine Maradi Madarounfa Safo 6 5 253 foods, and atypical sales of young female animals due Tillabery Tillabery Dessa‐Sinder 18 28 442 to food insecurity problems in certain villages Maradi Mayahi Tchaké 15 12 314 Tillabery Tillabery Anzourou 20 37 023 Tillabery Ouallam Tondi Kiwindi 38 40 542 Guidan Maradi Mayahi Amoumoune 12 7 239 Source: SAP Regular monitoring data collected by the National Early Warning System (SAP) and its regional branches (Table 1) confirms the persistence of poor food security conditions, despite good food availability. Eight villages in the Galmi (Birni NKonni) area with a total population of 14,550 are being categorized as highly food‐insecure. The current deterioration in the Galmi area and parts of Say and Madarounfa departments is reflected by large expenditures on food in the face of high market prices, the depletion of family food stores, and the dependence of household income on increasingly scarce supplies of truck crops at this time of year (Table 1). A look at the food situation in certain villages in rural areas of Tessaoua, Tchirozérine, Ouallam, Bouza, Arlit, Tchintabaraden, Mayahi, and Tillabery departments shows an aggravation of chronic crop and pasture production deficits due to the structural poverty of the land and, as a result, increasingly limited access by poor households to sources of food and income. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Food Security Update May 2009 The state of food security over the next few months is largely dependent on the progress of the growing season. The psychological effects of a good start‐of‐season, reflected by regular rainfall, could mean better grain availability as early as June on local markets provisioned by traders and farmer cooperatives looking to unload their inventories before prices begin to fall. Thus, good rainfall conditions would boost grain supplies, giving poor households better access to coarse grain crops. If, on the other hand, meteorological conditions in June are marked by a pattern of sporadic rainfall, with periods of drought, concerns over the outcome of the growing season could prompt farmers and traders to hoard their grain stores and engage in price speculation, causing prices to rise. Such a scenario could have a negative effect on financial access to commercially marketed foodstuffs and the food security status of food‐short households, particularly if grain bank inventories are unable to meet demand. Trends in the meningitis and measles outbreaks The widespread meningitis outbreak is winding down as the rainy season begins. As of May 10th of this year, this epidemic outbreak, which began in January, was responsible for 12,373 cases of illness and 498 deaths across the country, compared to the 1,679 cases and 102 deaths reported as of the same time last year. The rate of new reported cases of meningitis has slowed since the end of April, with incidence rates in the regions hardest hit by this outbreak (Zinder, Dosso, and Maradi, with 97, 74, and 47 cases per 100,000 population, respectively) falling to 22, 21, and 10 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. However, incidence rates in the Diffa and Tillabery regions are up from 6 to 12 and from 11 to 14 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. Nutrition Nutritional conditions are steadily deteriorating. The number of admissions of moderately and severely malnourished children to therapeutic feeding centers was up sharply between April and May. However, the absolute number of admissions is down from the same time last year and below average figures for the last four years. The Maradi (790), Tahoua (364), and Zinder (289) regions reported the largest number of cases of malnourished children between six and 59 months of age per 100,000 population for the reference period. The departments reporting more than 100 admissions of malnourished children per 100,000 population are Aguié, Dakoro, Guidan‐Roumdji, Madarounfa, Mayahi, Tessaoua, Madaoua, Magaria, and Zinder. Admissions levels in Tessaoua, Madaoua, and Magaria were unchanged from the previous period. Conditions for many poor households are already difficult with the depletion of their grain stores and their weak purchasing power and the hunger season is fast approaching in these areas. This could partially explain the stubborn cases of malnutrition in these areas, particularly cases of severe malnutrition. Moreover, the limited options for diversifying the household diet with the end of the growing season for off‐season crops and the loss of income from sales of these crops and animal products could be one of the main causes of malnutrition problems, particularly with the high rates of epidemic disease reported at this time of year. This steady seasonal rise in admissions rates could extend into September with the especially difficult food and economic situation facing households during this year’s hunger season. Seasonal progress Thanks to the availability of river water and the absence of any large‐scale attacks by crop pests, harvests of irrigated dry‐ season rice crops in riverbank areas of Niamey and Tillabery are going well.