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NORTH Sulawesims RESEARCH CENTRE 'WALE SEA' SA V: RATULANG1 UNIVERSITY

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NORTH Sulawesims RESEARCH CENTRE 'WALE SEA' SA V: RATULANG1 UNIVERSITY OCCASION This publication has been made available to the public on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation. DISCLAIMER This document has been produced without formal United Nations editing. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries, or its economic system or degree of development. Designations such as “developed”, “industrialized” and “developing” are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. Mention of firm names or commercial products does not constitute an endorsement by UNIDO. FAIR USE POLICY Any part of this publication may be quoted and referenced for educational and research purposes without additional permission from UNIDO. However, those who make use of quoting and referencing this publication are requested to follow the Fair Use Policy of giving due credit to UNIDO. CONTACT Please contact [email protected] for further information concerning UNIDO publications. For more information about UNIDO, please visit us at www.unido.org UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATION Vienna International Centre, P.O. Box 300, 1400 Vienna, Austria Tel: (+43-1) 26026-0 · www.unido.org · [email protected] UNIDO Contract No U3/82/AT.Projact No.DP/INS/VQ/OÛJ Act it/it/ Code : DP/02/ol.2. I h d i I 3 I COMPREHENSIVE INVESTFIEN1 profiles NORTH SULAWESIms RESEARCH CENTRE 'WALE SEA' SA v: RATULANG1 UNIVERSITY UNIDO/GKPM July (1984. UNDERTAKEN ON THE BASIS ÜF A CONTRACT BETWEEN THE UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION And SAM RATULANGI UNIVERSITY M A N A D 0 UNIDO Contract No 63/B2/RT.Project No.DP/IN5/78/003 Activity Code : OP/Q2/31.2. COMPREHENSIVE INVESTMENT PROFILES NORTH SULAWESI RESEARCH CENTRE 'WALE SEA' SAM RATULANGI UNIVERSITY UNIDC/BKPM July 1984. UNDERTAKEN ON THE BASIS OF A CONTRACT BETWEEN THE UNITED NATIONS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION And SAM RATULANGI UNIVERSITY M A N A D 0 DEPARTEMEN PEND ID IK AN DAN KEBUDAYAAN UNIVERSITAS SAM RAT ULAN GI MANADO.- aaaasaaaaaaaauuEHNaaaaaaaaaaasaaaa Dr.D.E.Sarfaty, n^AQin TiOfl/i Al* UNIDO PROJECT No.DP/INS/78/003 UNIDO/BKPM H Jl« Thamria Jakarta. Dear Dr.Sarfaty, Thia la to send you the 20 (twenty) copiea of the report oni "Comprehensive Investment Profiles North Sulawesi". The report is the result of a study undertaken by the Team of Universitas Sam Ratulangi under the UNIDO Contract No.83/82/RT. Project No.DP/INS/78/003, jointly signed by UNIDO/BKPM and UNSRAT on 26 February, 1984 in Manado. The report is obviously still subject to some (but hope­ fully not significant) changes* I hope that you will now find the report satisfactorily,- OEPARTEMEN PENDIDIKAN DAN KEBUOAYAAN UNIVERSITAS SAM RATUIANGI Kampus UNSRAT Bihu Manado Talp. 3586. 3786. Taie* 74131 COMPOSITION OF THE UNSRAT-STUDY TEAM 0:4 FORMULATION OF COMPREHENSIVE INVESTMENT PROFILES, NORTH SULAWESI (UNIDO Contract No B3/B2/RT.Project No.DP/INS/7E/O03 Activiting Code : DP/02/31.2) SUPERVISOR RECTOR OF SAM RATULANG1 UNIVERSITY CONSULTANT Professor W.J.Waworoentoe, MSc. Professor Dr. H. Kandou. TEAM LEADEK/EDITOR Ir.L.W . Sondukh,Dip.Ag.Ec;M .Econ. TEAM MEMBERS BY SECTORS [•'.aero Components (Regional Planning, Growth and Population) : Professor Drs. Max Rogi Drs. J. Tan, M .A . Professor Dr. H. Kandou Resources and Sectoral Components: Dr.Ir. J.Warosw Dr.Ir. D.Sembel, B.Sc. Dr.Ir. David Kaligis Dr(vet.) A.F. Wilar Ir. J.L. Palenewen, M.Sc. Ir. M. Rondo, M.Sc. Basic Needs: Professor W.J. Waworoentoe, M.Sc. Professor dr. P.E.A. Pangalila dr.Ny. Waworoentoe-W dr.Ny.Paat-R, M.Ph. Public and Private Investment: D r s . M. Mewencjkany Drs . Hassan Yan RESOURCE PERSON : D r s . P.P. Kepel ENGLISH EDITORS : D r a . J . Rompus D r a . J. Pakusi ADMINISTKATIVE OFFICER Alex Tampi, BA Manauo, IB November, lUBi Universltas Sum Ratulaiuji i PREFACE The aim of this study is to describe Investment Pro­ files of North Sulawesi. Such profiles have to be revealed from a comprehensive analysis on various factors required in planning and undertaking of investment projects. So, by definistion the scope of this study is extreemly wide because, various sectors and determinat of the economy , including social, environmental and also politics have to be taken into account. By definition therefore, the aim of the study should be achieved by employing various stu- dy/research methodologies at various stages of analytical steps, that fall into the so called ' systems-approach' that reveals the cost and benefits of a project. The stu­ dy team therefore, had previously considered to employ a certain kind of ' social-cost benefit' which accomodates- and links both, macro and micro analysis. However, such kind of intention had to be droped due to limitations of funds and time made available by UNIDO/BKPM. A method employed in this study is therefore a method which is believed to have best maximized the aims/objec - tive of the study subject to the mentioned constraints. The method adopted is that one that is able to analyse past trends of economic and investment development pro­ cess, and identify the present 'state of the art' of the economy. In turn, a method is further employed to try to foresee future projected development trends so that pro­ files of investments possibilities can be "roughly" iden­ tified. No attemps were made to 'empirically' identify the feasibil:ties of possible investments indicated. The team however believed th.it the methods employed and works undertaken, though still subject to various short- Il comings, had generally achieved the aims of the study, i.e. to describe investment profiles in North Sulawesi. Theteam also believed that some works have to be further undertaken in the near future so that the profiles indicated may close ly matche the 'real world' investment possibilities. Based on the above view this study/report has been organized as follows. Chapter 1 deals with, in a very brief manner, general- feature of the province, land, climate, historical develop­ ment, population and the overall economy. Chapter 1 is in fact designed mainly as an introductory chapter so­ me insights/understanding on the pattern and behaviour of the provincial economic development and its resources, are described in Chapter 2. In Chapter 2, special at­ tention is paid on highlighting the pattern of economic de­ velopment in order to see whether an economic transformati­ on has taken places, it is also in Chapter 2 where resour - cas potential and uses are described so that prospective in vestors would be able to see which and how much resources , available to attract new investments, short and/or longterm investments. One factor determining investment decisions in popula­ tion growth and distribution. Studies on population are im - portant for two reasons. First, population as a production- factor and population as consumers determining market izes of products yielded from an investment. So, population and man power is especially described in Chapter 3. It is in this chapter orojection of population by 1990 is shown, so that growth of demand for some 'strategic goods' and servi­ ces including basic needs can be estimated. Based on the description in Chapter 1, 2 and 3, an e - Ill commie outlook can therefore be made possible. The outlook is described in Chapter 4. For simplicity reason, due to the nature and scope of the study and the constraints faced, methods employed describing the outlook are limitted to the simple trend analysis, attempts have been made to apply two kinds of forecasting methods, i.e. linear and quadratic re^ ression trend analysis. Projections of some strategic coimno dities undertaken for both supply and demand sides. The de­ mand projection was undertaken by taking into account the objectives of meeting basic needs. Not all of the (basic needs) commodities have been empirically projected, due to lack of reliable data. The projections of these commodities were only descriti-'ely undertaken. The outlook give some insights on which commodities are still insufficient and still to be further produced to meet basic needs, and whicn commodities are available for export and inter island trade. This then leads to identifier tion of possible investments which is the subject of Chapter 5. The study is undertaken by the team of Universitas Sam Ratulangi Manado for UNIDO/BKPM on the basis of a contract- No.: 83/82/RT.Project No. DP/INS/78/003. Activity Code: DP/ 02/31.2, November 1983 to February 198/. The team wishes to express its profound gratitude tc the Rector of 5am Ratulangi University, Professor w. J. iu- woroentoe, M.Sc., for his generousity, wisdom, most stimu - lating guidances, suggestions and supervision during the period of the study. The team 1eader/editor appointed for this study would- also like to express his thanks to the Rector, Professor i V W.J. Waworoentoe, M.5cf to Professor Dr. H. Kandou, Director of the University's Research Centre, and to all members of the team for their expertises, encouragements, and supports contributed during the period of the study. However, none ot them should oe responsible for all shortcomings arid limitta- tions of this report. Thanks are also expressed to Drs. P.P. Kepel, Director of Badan Koordinasi Penansman Modal Daerah - (BKPMD) Sulawesi Utara, and to Ir. R. Dendeng, Head of Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah (BAPPEDA) Sulawesi Utara for their excellent helps and cooperation in achieving the objec­ tive of this study.
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