F Center for Strategic and International Studies Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy 1800 K Street, N.W. • Suite 400 • Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1 (202) 775-3270 • Fax: 1 (202) 457-8746 Email:
[email protected] Iraq’s Sectarian and Ethnic Violence and the Evolving Insurgency Developments through mid-December 2006 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
[email protected] With the Assistance of Emma Davies Updated: December 14, 2006 Cordesman: Iraq’s Sectarian and Ethnic Violence 12/14/06 Page 2 Executive Summary The insurgency in Iraq has become a “war after the war” that threatens to divide the country and create a full-scale civil conflict. It has triggered sectarian and ethnic violence that dominates the struggle to reshape Iraq as a modern state, has emerged as a growing threat to the Gulf region, and has become linked to the broader struggle between Sunni and Shi’ite Islamist extremism, and moderation and reform, throughout the Islamic world. Since its inception in the spring of 2003, the nature of the fighting in Iraq has evolved from a struggle largely limited to a confrontation between Coalition forces and former regime loyalists to a much more diffuse conflict, involving a number of Sunni groups, Shi’ite militias, and foreign jihadists, which now involves widespread civil conflict. While Coalition forces engaged in initiatives to stem violence, train Iraqi forces, and build public faith in political institutions, ethnic and sectarian tensions simultaneously pushed the country deeper into civil war. The February 22 bombing of the Golden Mosque was the initial catalyst of Sunni-Shi’ite clashes.