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W E E K L Y N E W S L E T T 3rd November 2012 The market edged higher last week on the back of optimism over the reshuffle of Performance of Indices & Sectoral Indices Cabinet on Sunday, 28 October 2012. The strength, however, could not be sustained Week Month Year due to the Reserve Bank of India's unwillingness to lower key interest rates in the INDEX CLOSING Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012-13 on 30 October 2012. Gains were Change In % also capped as investors were concerned about the impact of Hurricane Sandy in the SENSEX 18755.45 0.70 (0.04) 21.36 US. In the week ended on Friday. The Sensex closed at 18755.45 with gain of 0.70%, and Nifty closed at 5697.70 with gain of 0.59%. AUTO 10690.67 3.90 2.45 31.28 The pace of foreign liquidity in the Indian equity market slowed in October –12 BANKEX 13163.28 (0.41) 0.19 43.81 compared with September— 12. FIIs bought shares worth net `11364.20 crore in BSE IPO 1673.36 0.48 2.96 28.67 October—12. They had purchased shares worth net ` 19261.50 crore in September - CD 7378.03 5.08 6.31 39.62 12. FIIs bought shares worth net ` 93965 crore in calendar 2012 so far. FIIs offloaded CG 11114.67 (1.89) 1.43 37.77 shares worth a net ` 2714.20 crore in 2011. FMCG 5683.80 (0.70) 3.20 40.85 Worried over high budget deficit derailing growth, Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday, Oct.29,2012, unveiled a plan of fiscal consolidation during the period of HC 7714.98 3.16 2.48 31.42 the 12th Plan, i.e. from 2012-13 to 2016-17. FM laid out a roadmap to put the IT 5798.83 2.43 (2.09) 0.82 government's fiscal house in order, stressing the need to control expenses and METAL 10315.12 1.07 (2.98) 11.00 generate more revenue as it targets budget deficits of 5.3% of GDP this fiscal year and 4.8% next year. The fiscal deficit stood at 5.8% in the year ended March 31,2012. MIDCAP 6645.45 0.64 0.58 29.41 The plan that Mr. Chidambaram unveiled also envisages bringing down the govt.'s OIL& GAS 8367.88 (0.32) (3.39) 11.14 budget deficit to 4.2% of GDP in the fiscal year ending March 31,2015; 3.6% in fiscal POWER 1987.73 0.09 (2.98) 10.68 2016 and 3% in fiscal 2017. The announcement of the fiscal consolidation plan PSU 7231.74 (0.42) (2.48) 13.62 comes at a time when there are concerns that the government may increase its expenditure on social-sector programs in its budget for the next fiscal year through REALTY 1812.78 0.69 (1.85) 31.78 March 2014 as it prepares for next general elections, due before May 2014. SMLCAP 7064.38 (0.31) 0.26 27.28 The RBI in its second quarter monetary review, has decided to reduce the CRR of by TECk 3366.09 2.56 (1.52) (0.42) 25 basis points from 4.5% to 4.25% effective the fortnight beginning 3 November 2012. As a result of this reduction in the CRR, around `175K crore of primary liquidity will be injected into the banking system. The central bank kept its key policy rates the NIFTY 5697.70 0.59 (0.10) 23.21 repo rate unchanged at 8% citing high inflation. The RBI reduced the baseline BANK NIFTY 11460.45 (0.42) 0.03 43.82 projection of GDP growth for 2012-13 to 5.8%. Earlier, RBI had revised GDP growth CNX ENERGY 7828.30 0.09 (3.01) 12.34 downwards to 6.5% from 7.3% after First Quarter Review of July 2012. RBI said that CNX FMCG 14502.25 (0.96) 2.59 41.94 the persistence of inflationary pressures even as growth has moderated, remains a key challenge. Of particular concern is the stickiness of core inflation i.e. non-food CNX INFRA 2540.65 (0.17) 0.58 19.57 manufactured products inflation, mainly on account of supply constraints and the cost CNX IT 6163.45 2.29 (2.38) 0.40 -push of rupee depreciation. RBI said that inflation is expected to rise somewhat in Q3 CNX MIDCAP 7876.10 1.10 0.45 28.87 2012 before beginning to ease in Q4 2012. The RBI has raised the baseline projection CNX MNC 5723.40 (0.11) 0.33 26.70 for headline WPI inflation for March 2013 to 7.5% from 7% indicated in July 2012. India's seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing CNX NIFTY JNR 11080.40 1.34 0.34 32.97 sector came in at 52.9 in October, slightly above 52.8 recorded in September, CNX PHARMA 5736.80 3.51 2.12 25.36 signaling a further improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector. A PMI CNX PSE 2882.50 (1.23) (4.94) 8.62 reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while one below suggests decline. India's eight core industries growth having a combined weight of 37.90% in the Index CNX PSU BANK 3236.65 (0.09) (3.94) 23.91 of Industrial Production (IIP) rose to 5.1% in September from the 2.5% in last CNX REALITY 239.50 0.48 (2.40) 30.02 September, mainly due to double digit growth witnessed in the production of coal, CNX SERVICES 6736.45 0.89 (2.46) 20.27 WEEKLY NEWS LETTER petroleum refinery products and cement. CNX 500 4510.25 0.67 0.13 25.36 FDI in India during August declined by around 20% t to $2.26 billion from the $2.83 billion for the same month in the preceding year, after registering increase in the INDIA VIX 13.66 (3.87) (15.47) (49.61) inflows in the previous month. In July, the foreign inflows were up by around 60%. MIDCAP 50 2226.45 1.25 (1.15) 26.98 On Global front, China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in October 2012 from 49.8 in September. A number above 50 indicates expansion. Week Gainer & Losser The U.S. Unemployment Rate inched up to 7.9% in October 2012 from 7.8% in Gainer % Loser % September. The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell by 9K for the week ended October 27, 2012 to 363K from its previous week. WIPRO 8.50 BHEL (5.36) MARUTI 7.34 BPCL (3.43) The Indian market may continues to trade in range, however the coming week may be volatile as US Presidential election scheduled on November 12. And the 18th IDFC 6.62 ONGC (3.22) Communist party Congress which officially kicks off China’s once in a decade leader- ship change begins on November 8, 12. The Chinese president Hu Jintao is expected DRREDDY 6.25 BANKBARODA (2.66) to hand over the role of party chief to their apparent Zi Jinping. CIPLA 6.21 JPASSOCIAT (2.04) On macro front Markit Economics will unveil HSBC India Services purchasing Weekly Currency movement managers' index (PMI) for October 2012 on Monday, November 5, 2012. DOLLAR INDEX And next batch of corporate earnings Cipla announces Q2 results on Monday, 5 November, Tata Power and Reliance Infrastructure unveil Q2 results on Tuesday, USDINR 53.66 0.14 6 November 2012. Hindalco Industries and its US unit Novelis Inc. unveil Q2 results on the same day. Bharti Airtel and Tata Motors unveil Q2 results on Wednesday, 7 EURINR 69.24 0.25 November 2012. Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries and ONGC announce Q2 September 2012 results on Thursday, 8 November 2012. Rescheduled on November 6,2012 GBPINR 86.37 0.15 Ranbaxy Laboratories unveils Q3 September 2012 results on the same day. Tata Steel, Jindal Steel & Power, Coal India, State Bank of India and BPCL unveil Q2 results JPYINR 66.85 0.40 on Friday, 9 November 2012. *Source: BSE, NSE, BI, Capital Market & rbi.org.in URJA INVESTMENT PTE LTD For Private Circulation Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report 1 3rd November 2012 TECHNICAL SUMMARY During the last week Nifty traded with high volatility, indices breached its previous three week consolation range and faced heavy selling pressure after RBI kept unchanged key policy rates in its half yearly monetary policy review on last Tuesday. And registered low of 5583.05 level and rebounded from there and registered high of 5711.30 levels. Nifty closed at 5697.70 level with gain of 0.59%. On sectoral front CD, Auto, HC, and IT indices performed well and was up by 5.08%, 3.90%, 3.16% and 2.43%. On the other side CG and FMCG indices performed badly and closed down by 1.89% and 0.70% respectively NIFTY (5697.70) Categorically we have mentioned in our daily and weekly edition that close Daily Chart below 5630 would trigger resumption of short term process so as to test the NSE Nifty [N59901] 5696.35, 5711.30, 5682.55, 5697.70, 625572736 0.93% Price Swing(3.00) Boll(S,20,2.00) Lnr IRIS supports placed between 5585 & 5447. during the week on daily chart Nifty 5880 5815.35 has given bearish breakout from the Head & Shoulder pattern and registered 5820 low of 5583.05. However, the Nifty took support at the 38.2% Fibonacci 5760 23.60 5700 5673.83 retracement level of its up move from 5215 to 5815 (5586) and has moved 5640 38.20 5580 past above 5638 with an upside gap on the daily chart 5682 & 5649.
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