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The Indian Steel Industry: Key Reforms for a Brighter Future

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National Council of Applied Economic Research The Indian Steel Industry: Key Reforms for a Brighter Future September 2015 The Indian Steel Industry: Key Reforms for a Brighter Future September 2015 National Council of Applied Economic Research 11 Indraprastha Estate, New Delhi 110 002 NCAER | QUALITY . RELEVANCE . IMPACT (c) 2015 National Council of Applied Economic Research Support for this research from Tata Steel is gratefully acknowledged. The contents and opinions in this paper are those of NCAER alone and do not reflect the views of Tata Steel or any its affiliates. Published by Anil K Sharma Secretary and Head of Operations and Senior Fellow The National Council of Applied Economic Research Parisila Bhawan, 11 Indraprastha Estate New Delhi 110 002 Tel: +91-11-2337-9861 to 3 Fax: +91-11-2337-0164 [email protected] www.ncaer.org The Indian Steel Industry: Key Reforms for a Brighter Future THE INDIAN STEEL INDUSTRY: KEY REFORMS FOR A BRIGHTER FUTURE IV NATIONAL COUNCIL OF APPLIED ECONOMIC RESEARCH Parisila Bhawan, 11 Indraprastha Estate, New Delhi 110 002 Tel.: + 91 11 2337 0466, 2337 9861 Fax + 91 11 2337 0164 [email protected], www.ncaer.org Shekhar Shah Director-General Foreword There is much excitement in India about the ‘Make in India’ program launched by the new Modi government. It is expected that with improved ease of doing business in India, including the reform of labor laws, rationalization of land acquisition, and faster provision of transport and connectivity infrastructure, both foreign and domestic investment will pick up in manufacturing. The hope is that the rate of growth of manufacturing will accelerate and the share of manufacturing in GDP, which has been stagnant at about 15 per cent for the last three decades, will increase to 25 per cent. Unfortunately, the performance of the manufacturing sector during 2014-15 has been below expectation. The rate of growth of industrial production during the year has been only 2.3 per cent, much below the growth rate of GDP. There is considerable excess capacity in the manufacturing sector, and private corporate investment is not yet showing signs of a strong resurgence. There is clearly a need for deeper understanding of what ails our manufacturing sector and what needs to be done to change the situation. It is against this background that NCAER launched its study of the steel sector in India. Steel forms about 2 per cent of GDP and about 16 per cent of the industrial sector. A healthy steel sector is vital for the economy, particularly for manufacturing. The findings of the study suggest that the steel sector in India has a very high potential. While the steel industry in other major economies is aging, with little prospect of high growth, India’s steel industry is young. While many old steel producers are struggling with the difficult task of retrofitting, India as a late- comer has the advantage of leapfrogging to the latest technology that is efficient and eco-friendly. If India’s economic growth accelerates, the production of steel should increase by several hundred million tons over the next few decades. But the study also finds that the current conditions of the steel industry in India are dismal, with very low profits, low capacity utilization and dim prospects of new private investment, either foreign or domestic. The August devaluation of the Chinese Yuan is further fueling fears about dumping of steel into the Indian market. The enthusiasm about ‘Make in India’ appears, at least to industry insiders, to be bypassing the steel industry. The NCAER study finds that the steel industry is constrained not just by the usual supply- side factors, such as availability of land or minerals or environmental clearances, but also by inadequate demand and several other macroeconomic factors. The study identifies 11 road blocks hindering the resurgence of the Indian steel industry. These are: demand deficiency, decline of trade competiveness and surge in imports, financial fragility, excessive taxation, stalemate in land acquisition, delays in project implementation, V THE INDIAN STEEL INDUSTRY: KEY REFORMS FOR A BRIGHTER FUTURE suboptimal system of mineral allocation, inadequate exploration of mineral wealth, inadequate availability of skill manpower, high cost and low quality logistic facilities and inadequate progress in meeting the environmental standards expected of a modern steel industry. If the high potential of the steel industry in India is to be realized, the government must introduce a transformational program for the industry. Mere tinkering with the present policies and exhorting greater effort will not achieve much. The study suggests elements of a new policy framework that could be the basis for making a rejuvenated Indian steel industry really shine. I am grateful to Tata Steel for sponsoring the study and Dr Ramgopal Agarwala (Honorary Senior Fellow, NCAER) for leading it. I am also thankful to Dr Rajesh Chadha (Senior Research Counselor, NCAER), S. Vijay Kumar (Distinguished Fellow, TERI and Senior Consultant for this study) and other team members for their substantive contributions to this study. We hope that the study will provide an occasion for intense discussion of the future of the Indian steel industry among policymakers, the industry, consumers, and researchers. It would be timely for the government to consider formulating a new Steel Policy White Paper that would allow the industry to realize the full high potential of the sector. We also hope that the authorities will realize that there are deep-seated structural problems in most manufacturing sub-sectors in India that go beyond the need to improve the ‘ease of doing business’. NCAER stands ready to work with the government and the private sector to study in depth the various sub-sectors of India’s manufacturing sector and to help design and evaluate policies for making India a vibrant manufacturing hub in the world economy. There is much to be done, and as India’s demographic transition progresses and finding productive jobs will become India’s top political and economic priority, there is no time to be lost. New Delhi Shekhar Shah September 24, 2015 Director-General NCAER VI Acknowledgements The study team wishes to acknowledge the support of a number of organizations and individuals in the preparation of this report. First, we would like to place our sincere thanks to Tata Steel for sponsoring this study and for providing their valuable inputs during the conduct of this project. Second, the encouragement and support of the officials in the Joint Plant Committee ( JPC), Ministry of Steel, has been vital to this work. We are grateful to Dr. A.S Firoz and Dr. Sushmita Dasgupta for their valuable inputs and discussions at the JPC, New Delhi office. Third, we are deeply grateful for the contributions made by Mr. N.M. Rao, Consultant (I&S) on different issues pertaining to the Indian steel industry. We would like to place on record our special thanks to Mr. Sanjay Sinha (Steel Authority of India Ltd), Mr. Jayanta K. Saha (Institute for Steel Development and Growth), Mr. Kamal Aggarwal (All India Induction Furnace Association), Mr. A K Jain (Steel Furnace Association of India) and Mr. Rajesh Shah (Mukand Ltd.) for providing valuable insights. Fourth, we would also like to thank all participants who attended the in-house seminar on major findings of the study at NCAER on May 11, 2015 for providing their valuable comments and suggestions. Further, we wish to thank the NCAER Director-General, Dr. Shekhar Shah, for his continuous encouragement, support and suggestions during the course of the study. Finally, the study team would like to thank Dr. Renu Gupta for editing the report and Mr. J. S. Punia at NCAER for his support in the production of the report. The team however, remains responsible for any errors. Study Team The report was prepared by a study team led by Dr. Ramgopal Agarwala at NCAER comprising Charu Jain, Jahnavi Prabhakar and Rohitash Chaudhary, with contributions from Senior Consultant S. Vijay Kumar Distinguished Fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). Dr. Rajesh Chadha (Senior Research Counselor at NCAER) has made immense contributions in all stages of the work as the key advisor to the project. The other members of the team who have contributed in different stages of the study are Akansha Dubey, Abhishek Goswami, Asrar Alam and Praveen Sachdeva. VII THE INDIAN STEEL INDUSTRY: KEY REFORMS FOR A BRIGHTER FUTURE VIII Contents Foreword ........................................................................................................................................ v Acknowledgements and Study Team ....................................................................................................... vii List of Tables .........................................................................................................................................x Figures ........................................................................................................................................xi List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................ xiii Executive Summary ..............................................................................................................................xvii Chapter I High Long-term Potential of the Indian Steel Industry ................................................ 1 Chapter II Current Distress of the Steel Industry ..........................................................................
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