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Volume IX, Issue 1 February 2015 PERSPECTIVES on TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 1 ISSN 2334-3745 Volume IX, Issue 1 February 2015 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 1 Table of Contents Welcome from the Editors 1 I. Articles Measuring the Effectiveness of Israel’s ‘Targeted Killing’ Campaign 2 by Ophir Falk Straight From the Horse’s Mouth: Exploring De-radicalization Claims of Former Egyptian Militant Leaders 27 by Dina Al Raffie Terrorism, Communication and New Media: Explaining Radicalization in the Digital Age 49 by Cristina Archetti Constructing Cyberterrorism as a Security Threat: a Study of International News Media Coverage 60 by Lee Jarvis, Stuart Macdonald and Andrew Whiting II. Research Notes Although the (Dis-)Believers Dislike it: a Backgrounder on IS Hostage Videos – August - December 2014 76 by Judith Tinnes When Terrorists and Target Governments Cooperate: the Case of Syria 95 by Michael Becker “I’m down for a Jihad”: How 100 Years of Gang Research Can Inform the Study of Terrorism, Radicalization and Extremism 104 by Scott H. Decker and David C. Pyrooz III. Book Reviews Patrick Cockburn, The Jihadis Return: the Rise of ISIS and the new Sunni Uprising. New York and London: OR Books 2014. 113 Loretta Napoleoni, The Islamist Phoenix: the Islamic State and the Redrawing of the Middle East. New York and Oakland: Seven Stories Press 2014. 113 Reviewed by Teun van Dongen ISSN 2334-3745 i February 2015 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 1 Counterterrorism Bookshelf: 16 Books on Terrorism & Counter-Terrorism-related Subjects 115 Reviewed by Joshua Sinai IV. Resources Bibliography: Terrorism in, or Originating from the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Russia (Part 1) 122 Compiled and Selected by Judith Tinnes Bibliography: Foreign Fighters of Terrorism 157 Compiled by Eric Price V. Notes from the Editor News From TRI’s National PhD Writers Networks 164 Compiled by Alex P. Schmid TRI Award for Best PhD Thesis 2014: Last Call for Submissions 167 by Alex P. Schmid Word of Thanks for our External Peer Reviewers 168 from the Editorial Team ISSN 2334-3745 ii February 2015 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 1 Welcome from the Editors Dear Reader, We are pleased to announce the release of Volume IX, Issue 1 (February 2015) of Perspectives on Terrorism at www.terrorismanalysts.com. Our free online journal is a joint publication of the Terrorism Research Initiative (TRI), headquartered in Vienna, and the Center for Terrorism and Security Studies (CTSS), headquartered at the University of Massachusetts’ Lowell campus. Now in its 9th year, Perspectives on Terrorism has almost 4,900 regular subscribers and many more occasional readers worldwide. The Articles of its six annual issues are fully peer-reviewed by external referees. Its Research Notes, Book Reviews and other sections are subject to internal editorial quality control. The first of four Articles in this issue is an evaluation of the effectiveness of targeted killings as a counter- terrorism tactic, written by Ophir Falk and based on rigorous empirical testing in the case of Israel. Second comes an article, written by Dina Al Raffie, focusing on militant Egyptian extremists who were said to have de-radicalised, but have in fact changed less than assumed. Next we have an article by Cristina Archetti on the role of the Internet in radicalization and the problem of developing counter-narratives. Our fourth article by Lee Jarvis, Stuart Macdonald and Andrew Whiting, deals with cyber-terrorism, or rather the construction of this security threat, as seen by various news media. Our Research Notes section begins with a perceptive analysis from Judith Tinnes on the strategy behind ISIS’ video-taped beheadings. Her analysis is followed by a Research Note on the tacit, tactical alliance of Syria’s president Assad with jihadist extremists, authored by Michael Becker. Our third item, written by Scott H. Decker and David C. Pyrooz, offers suggestions how the study of organized crime gangs can contribute to a better understanding of terrorist groups. In the Bibliographic section, the reader will find a literature list on terrorism in Russia with a focus on the Caucasus, again from the hand of Judith Tinnes. There is a short bibliography by Eric Price, dealing with the phenomenon of foreign fighters. In the Reviews section, there is a combined book review of two studies focusing on ISIS. This is followed, as usual, by a series of brief reviews from our book review editor, Joshua Sinai. Finally, we draw the readers’ attention to some of the activities going on in TRI’s National Networks of PhD thesis writers. We also remind those PhD thesis writers who have completed and defended their theses successfully last year to submit them before 31 March 2015 for the competition for the TRI Award ‘Best PhD Thesis in the Field of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Studies’. There is also a Note of Thanks to our external peer-reviewers who help us make the journal what it is. The current issue of Perspectives on Terrorism has been prepared by Alex Schmid from TRI’s European office in Vienna. Co-editor of this issue is Dr. Paul Gill, University College London, who is also a member of our Editorial Board. The April issue will be prepared by Prof. James J. F. Forest, our journal’s American co-editor at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell. Sincerely, Professor em. Alex P. Schmid, Editor-in-Chief Dr. Paul Gill, Guest, Co-editor of this issue ISSN 2334-3745 1 February 2015 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 1 I. Articles Measuring the Effectiveness of Israel’s ‘Targeted Killing’ Campaign by Ophir Falk Abstract With targeted killing long becoming a key and perhaps primary counterterrorism measure used by a number of States in their confrontation with lethal terror, this article looks at the pros and cons of this method of warfare while focusing on the underlying justification for its use–namely its objective driven effectiveness. Israel’s use of targeted killing, intended to mitigate Palestinian suicide terrorism during the first decade of the 21st century, serves as the key case study in this article. A quantitative approach was adopted, using growth model analysis, and isolation of designated area, to demonstrate the effectiveness of targeted killing in reducing fatalities caused by suicide bombings. The period examined was from 2000 to 2010, with a key finding being that targeted killings of ideological leaders, primarily in Gaza, were more effective than operative level targeted killings in the context of confronting suicide bombing fatalities. Keywords: Targeted Killing; Effectiveness; Quantitative analysis; Suicide bombings; Counter-terrorism Introduction Terrorist organizations and states choose methods of terrorism or counterterrorism based on the expected effectivness of those methods. For that ostensible rationale, suicide bombings were adopted by over 30 different terrorist organizations, with attacks carried out in more than 30 countries on four different continents[1]. Based on the same logic of expected effectiveness, targeted killing, a “premeditated act of lethal force employed by a state to eliminate specific individuals outside their custody”[2] became a prime method applied by Israel during the first decade of the 21st century in its efforts to confront suicide bombings. It is fully acknowledged that counter terrorism policy is often complex and that multiple measures are often used. At the same time, when assessing the effectiveness of counter terrorism, although difficult, it is imperative that the effectiveness of a specific countermeasure be examined and not only an entire policy. This has been done before in regards to the effectiveness of house demolition mitigating.[3] In light of the fact that targeted killing has become a prime measure used by a number of states, it is important that its effectiveness, as it relates to the goal for which it is used, be addressed. This is possible and important. Its importance is more vehemently recognized today in such theaters as North West Pakistan, where the US primarily relies on targeted killing to curb the threats on its interests. Aside from targeted killing, other tactical counterterrorism measures, such as arrests, check points and house demolition were also used by Israel to confront suicide terrorism. However, it is argued that targeted killing was the prime, perhaps strategic measure used by Israel against the suicide bombing phenomenon, certainly in Gaza during the time in question.[4] Targeted killing is not a new phenomenon. However, in recent years it has become a key part of many operational security doctrines. What was once a highly controversial and seldom-used tactic has become a widely accepted and applied policy. In the course of four years (2001 to 2005) Israel carried out over 160 targeted killings [5]. During the course of the subsequent six years (2006-2012) targeted killing became ISSN 2334-3745 2 February 2015 PERSPECTIVES ON TERRORISM Volume 9, Issue 1 the most widely used counter-terrorism or counter-insurgency tool in America’s military campaigns in Afghanistan and Pakistan [6]. Further, Russian forces targeted Chechen “rebel warlords”[7], Sri Lankan forces targeted Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) leaders and the LTTE targeted Sri Lankan leaders [8], and the US has targeted al-Qaeda’s alleged terrorists.[9] From an Israeli perspective, targeted killing, as Moshe Yaalon, Israel’s Minister of Defense has explained, disrupts the daily routine of terrorists: “The potential target tries to avoid being seen in public, doesn’t use means of communication since he understands we’re listening. He is forced to rely on messengers and face to face meetings”.[10] In other words, the threat of targeted killing forces the terrorist to become preoccupied with survival instead of attacks. Wisely selected targeting lowers the terrorists’ morale, reduces their cumulative operational capabilities and, of course, increases morale on the attacker’s side.
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