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Sochi: Games with Frontiers by Gerald Stang 4 2014 Dmitry Lovetsky/AP/SIPA Dmitry Lovetsky/AP/SIPA Sochi: games with frontiers by Gerald Stang Russia is often seen as a land of extremes – and remains occupied by Russian troops more than the narratives for this month’s Winter Olympics five years after the 2008 war. In response to con- in Sochi reflect that view. From the record-length tinued worries about the threat of terrorist attacks, 65,000 km Olympic torch run (which included Russian security services extended the security trips to outer space, the north pole and the bot- zone for the games deep into Georgia, and Putin tom of the world’s deepest lake) to the incredible may even invite the leaders of both Abkhazia and $51 billion price tag and the Ian Flemingesque South Ossetia to an opening dinner for foreign threat of attacks from black widow terrorists, the heads of state. That Moscow can casually use re- Sochi games have a distinctly Russian flavour. The cently ‘conquered’ territory to ensure protection Kremlin appears to have envisioned the games as for an event attended by the whole world is indica- a national triumph, not unlike the 2008 Beijing tive of Russia’s clout. Yet the necessity for such an Olympics, with organisational, architectural and extensive security perimeter highlights the fragility sporting successes that could unite the country. of Russia’s position. However, with global headlines dominated by sto- ries of corruption, human rights abuses, anti-gay laws and the very real threat of terrorist attacks, Unrest, terror and sport one might be forgiven for wondering whether the Russian government regrets its decision to bid for The Sochi Olympics will be Russia’s first winter the games. games (after the 1980 summer games in Moscow), although Sochi also bid to host them in 1995. The Hosting the Olympics can be a risky prospect, par- ongoing war in the Russian republic of Chechnya, ticularly if the chosen venue is a beachfront sum- a few hundred kilometres away, inevitably cast a mer resort tasked with organising winter events. shadow over that first bid. The First Chechen War While a bit of good luck and pre-planning can ended with the humiliating withdrawal of Russian overcome potential weather problems, Sochi’s secu- troops in 1996 but a surge of Islamist Chechen rity challenges remain a major worry. The Olympic fighters into the neighbouring Russian republic Park constructed to host the opening ceremonies of Dagestan in 1999 instigated a Second Chechen is located a mere 5 km from Russia’s border with War. Under the direction of new Prime Minister, Abkhazia, the breakaway Georgian province that then President, Vladimir Putin, this war ended European Union Institute for Security Studies February 2014 1 with a convincing Russian victory – at great cost, matched with high numbers for employment, in- but with the installation of a Moscow-friendly come and, unsurprisingly, Putin’s popularity. The strongman to run the republic. Sochi games may be the costliest of all time but they seem popular with most Russians, and the gov- By 2007, when Sochi won its second Olympic ernment has no shortage of cash. In 2012, Russia bid, Russian troops were slowly disengaging from ranked only behind Saudi Arabia in oil exports, Chechnya, with security increasingly in the hands shipping as much as the next three largest exporters of police and internal security services. Today, combined (UAE, Kuwait and Nigeria). It is also, by Chechnya is merely the most restive of a group of far, the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. troubled republics in the region. The International Crisis Group reported more than 700 people killed The Sochi Olympics will be like no other games by conflict across the northern Caucasus in 2012, because Russia is a country like no other. It has while terrorist attacks across Russia have been traced immense linguistic, cultural and religious di- back to operatives from the region. The military vic- versity, but is centrally run from Moscow. While tory in Chechnya, and the years of unrest and ter- none of the centrifugal forces at the fringes of this rorism that have followed, set the tone for Putin’s empire are capable of open rebellion, Russia suf- dominance to this day: the use of raw force to shape fers from more terrorist attacks than almost any a powerful, authoritarian Russia, but beset by wor- other country. The National Consortium for the ries of terrorist violence and political uncertainty. Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland found that Putin has been focused on restoring the economic Russia was the target of almost 1,900 attacks from and political power that was lost with the dissolu- 1991 to 2012. Including the restive Chechnya and tion of the USSR and the chaos of the Yeltsin years. Dagestan republics, there have been more than 150 Under Yeltsin, Russia’s economy shrunk every year attacks per year from 2008 to 2012. The most re- but one; when the government defaulted on its cent attacks in Volgograd (formerly Stalingrad) in debts during the 1998 rouble crisis, it was mere- December 2013 claimed 34 lives. ly the culmination of a decade of collapse. From 1999 to 2013 – the years covering Putin’s tenure as Western officials have described a terrorist attack prime minister and president – the economy grew in Sochi during the Olympics as ‘very likely to oc- every year but one. This impressive record has been cur’. The leader of the Caucasus Emirate, a militant European Union Institute for Security Studies February 2014 2 BACKGROUND REPORT Terrorism and the Olympics: Sochi, Russia 2014 In anticipation of the upcoming Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia, START has compiled this background report on the patterns of terrorist activity in Russia and the history of terrorism and the Olympics since 1970. Two suicide bombings in December targeted a train station and trolleybus in Volgograd, Russia, killing at least 34 people and wounding many more. The attacks, which took place approximately 400 miles from Sochi, highlight the potential threat of terrorist violence at the 2014 Winter Games. The militant group Vilayat Dagestan, part of the Caucasus Emirate, claimed responsibility for the Volgograd attacks. A statement made by the group threatens that if the Winter Olympics are held, the group will carry out additional attacks, particularly targeting tourists in retaliation for “the Muslim blood that is shed every day around the world, be it in Afghanistan,group Somalia, seeking Syria , toall aroundestablish the worldan independent.”1 Islamic summer games are more often held in larger ur- state in Russia’s northern Caucasus, has called for ban agglomerations. The five short-listed cities for Here we review patterns of terrorist activity in Russia between 1992 and 2012, in particular trends over time, geography, perpetrators, tactics,strikes and againsttargets. We the also Sochi analyze games. terrorist Police attacks have that have issued taken place duringthe 2012 the Olympic summer Games games in the werehost London, Paris, New country, attacks leafletsindirectly related identifying to the Olympic three Games possible, and attacks suicide targeting bomb other- majorYork, sporting Moscow events. Bearing and inMadrid. mind that For the 2014 win- the heightened profileers that of international may be sportingin the eventsarea, mightincluding increase the the likelihood‘black of a terroristter games, attack whileonly the Pyeongchang heightened and Salzburg were security and surveillancewidow’ might of an decrease Islamist the likelihoodmilitant. of Whilean attack, discussions we evaluate general patternsshortlisted of terrorism with inSochi Olympic while host the other applicant countries at the timeof gay of the rights Games, issues compared have to been the same prominent time period in the public previous year. citiesThe analysis were indicates Jaca, Almaty, that there Sofia is no and Borjomi. Despite consistent increase or decrease in the frequency of terrorist attacks during the Olympics, suggesting that efforts to reinforce security are generallyanalysis effective of atwhy mitigating many any Western potential threatsleaders that are may avoid exist. - massive growth over the years – in terms of events, ing the games, the potential threat to their security spectators and money involved – the winter games TERRORISM INmay RUS beSIA the AN Dmost THE importantNORTH CAU reason.CASUS R EGION remain much smaller than the summer games, with approximately a quarter of the athletes, events and Since the breakupSince of the theSoviet attack Union inon December Israeli 1991 athletes through at 2012, the there 1972 have been venues.nearly 1,900 This terrorist makes attacks it allin the more shocking that Russia that resultedMunich in more games, than 3,800 security deaths concernsand involved have more thanbeen 7,200 para hostages.- SochiRussia rankswill seventhcost even among more than the much larger countries with themount most terrorist for Olympic attacks and organisers. the most deaths Except from forterrorist a bomb attacks. 2008 Beijing summer games, which previously that killed two, and very nearly many more, at the held the record for the most expensive Olympics. TIMELINE, 19919962-201 Atlanta2 games, the Olympics have remained peaceful. Security spending has skyrocketed at re- The benefits claimed for hosting the games include The frequency of terrorist attacks in Russia has been steadily increasing over the past two decades, ranging from approximately 20 attacks in 1992cent to aevents peak
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