SECAP Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan for the City of Belgrade March 2021 iii Issue and Revision Record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description A 14 Sept. 2020 Andrea Illes Phil Le Gouais Dusan Savkovic Draft SECAP issued to EBRD and Hetty Menadue City for review Clemence Moinier Seth Landau Anna Sikharulidze Miodrag Grujic B 11 December 2020 Andrea Illes Phil Le Gouais Dusan Savkovic Final Draft SECAP issued to EBRD Hetty Menadue and City for review Clemence Moinier Seth Landau Anna Sikharulidze Miodrag Grujic C 29 January 2021 Seth Landau Phil Le Gouais Dusan Savkovic Final Draft SECAP issued to EBRD Miodrag Grujic and City for public consultation D 29 March 2021 Seth Landau Phil Le Gouais Dusan Savkovic Final SECAP Miodrag Grujic Document reference: Information class: Standard This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned project only. 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Under no circumstances m ay this report or any extr act or summary ther eof be used in connection wi th any public or private securities offering i ncluding any rel ated mem orandum or prospectus for any securities offering or st ock exchange listing or announcement. iv Contents Glossary 1 Foreword 2 Executive Summary 3 1 Introduction 6 Background 6 Context 7 Methodology used to develop the SECAP 9 2 Vision and strategic objectives 11 Long-term vision 11 Targets and commitments 11 Administrative structure/staff capacity allocated 13 Stakeholder engagement 14 Budget 14 Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) 15 3 Baseline Emission Inventory 17 Methodological notes 17 BEI of Belgrade’s SECAP 18 4 GHG projection 22 Baseline scenario 22 Climate change mitigation scenario 23 5 Risk and vulnerability assessment 27 Overview 27 Climate hazards 27 Vulnerable sectors 29 Adaptive capacity 32 Vulnerable population groups 32 6 Actions 34 Overview 34 Energy and efficiency 35 Urban planning and mobility 40 Resilience 45 v Appendices 51 A. Feedback received from stakeholders on BEI and VRA 52 Emissions Sources 52 Risks and Vulnerabilities 53 B. Development of Vision 54 Approach to Developing Vision 54 Options Considered 54 Results of Consultation Exercise 54 Selected Vision 55 C. Approach to Options Assessment 56 Identification of Options 56 Evaluation of “Long List” 56 D. Detailed Assessment of Measures 61 E. Vulnerabilities and risks as presented in earlier stages of the development of the SECAP 88 F. Detailed vulnerability and risk assessment 101 G. Indicators database – activity data and key assumptions projections in the baseline and mitigation scenarios 108 Buildings sector 108 Local Heat Production / District heating 115 Public lighting sector 118 Transport sector 120 Tables Table 0.1: Summary of BEI, 2030 emissions trajectory in the baseline, and emissions totals with measures in 2030 5 Table 2-1 Climate change mitigation targets 11 Table 2-2 Climate adaptation targets 12 Table 2-3 Overall budget foreseen for the implementation of the SECAP 15 Table 2-4 Financing sources for the SECAP 15 Table 3-1 Emission factors and NCVs of different fuels 17 Table 3-2 The NCVs of different fuels 17 Table 3-3 CO2 emission factors for electricity and heat 18 Table 3-4 Final energy consumption in 2015 in sectors considered under Belgrade’s SECAP 20 Table 3-5 CO2 emissions in 2015 in sectors considered under Belgrade’s SECAP 21 Table 4-1 Impacts of energy efficiency actions in 2030, as compared to the baseline scenario 25 vi Table 4-2 Impacts of urban planning and mobility actions in 2030, as compared to the baseline scenario 25 Table 5-1 Overview of historic and projected extreme weather events affecting Belgrade 28 Table 5-2 Climate hazards affecting Belgrade 29 Table 5-3 Overview of sectors’ vulnerability to climate hazards 30 Table 5-4 Vulnerable population groups 32 Table 6-1 Overview of actions 34 Table 6-2 All energy efficiency actions 36 Table 6-3 Further details of key actions on energy efficiency 39 Table 6-4 All urban planning and mobility actions 40 Table 6-5 Further details of key action on urban planning and mobility 45 Table 6-6 All resilience actions 46 Table 6-7 Further details of key action on resilience 49 Figures Figure 3-1 Energy consumption by sector and energy carrier in Belgrade in 2015 19 Figure 3-2 CO2 emissions by sector and energy carrier in Belgrade in 2015 19 Figure 4-1 Baseline projections of final energy consumption (MWh) of BEI sectors 22 Figure 4-2 Baseline projections of CO2 emissions (t) from BEI sectors 23 Figure 4-3 Projections of final energy consumption (MWh) of BEI sectors in mitigation scenario24 Figure 4-4 Projections of CO2 emissions (t) from BEI sectors in mitigation scenario 24 This Action Plan was prepared by Mott MacDonald Limited for the benefit of the City of Belgrade. 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This Action Plan has been funded mutually by Republic of Japan and EBRD. 1 Glossary BEI Baseline Emission Inventory BUR Biennial Update Report CAPEX Capital Expenditures CO2 carbon dioxide CoM Covenant of Mayors DH District Heating EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EPA Environmental Protection Agency GCAP Green City Action Plan GHG Greenhouse Gas ICLEI International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives ICT Information & communication technologies IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISEB Information system for Belgrade energy JRC Joint Research Centre MEI Monitoring Emission Inventory MMR Monitoring Mechanism Regulation MRV Monitoring, reporting and verification NCCS National Climate Change Strategy NCV Net Calorific Values OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PE Public Entеrprise PIU Project Implementation Unit PPPs Public Private Partnerships PUC Public Utility Company SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SECAP Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan SO Strategic Objective UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VRA Vulnerability and Risk Assessment 2 Foreword Dear fellow citizens, In front of you is the strategic document Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan 2030, which was created in a transparent and participatory way in cooperation with experts from Serbia and Europe.