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Fiscal Impact Analysis

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Fiscal Impact Analysis FINAL DRAFT City of Pasadena Economic Development Strategy Prepared for: City of Pasadena 100 No. Garfield Avenue Pasadena, CA 91109 Eric Duyshart, Economic Development City Manager’s Office (626) 744-4660 April 6, 2011 SRHA Job #1212 11661 San Vicente Blvd. Suite 306 Los Angeles, California 90049-5111 310.820.2680, 310.820.8341 fax www.stanleyrhoffman.com CONTENTS Exhibits. .......................................................................................................................................... ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..............................................................................................................................iv CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................1 1.1 Overview and Purpose .................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Regional Context ............................................................................................................ 1 1.3 Geographies of Economic Analysis................................................................................ 3 1.4 Outline of Report ............................................................................................................ 3 1.5 Data Sources Used in this Report ................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 2 THE ECONOMY OF PASADENA...........................................................................................5 2.1 Key Demographics.......................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Overall Economic Trends ............................................................................................... 8 2.3 Comparison with Regional Economy ........................................................................... 14 2.4 Economic Analysis at the Sub-Area Level ................................................................... 19 2.5 Distribution of Jobs across Focus Areas....................................................................... 24 CHAPTER 3 EVALUATION OF THE CITY ECONOMY .............................................................................25 3.1 SWOT Methodology..................................................................................................... 25 3.2 Overall Assessment of the City..................................................................................... 26 3.3 SWOT Analysis of Target Industry Groups ................................................................. 29 CHAPTER 4 ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS ....................................................................................35 4.1 Developing Employment Growth Alternatives ............................................................ 35 4.2 Drivers of Economic Growth in Pasadena.................................................................... 36 4.3 Projected Economic Growth Alternatives .................................................................... 37 CHAPTER 5 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY RECOMMENDATIONS.....................................40 5.1 What is a Strategic Plan? .............................................................................................. 40 5.2 Economic Development Framework for the Future ..................................................... 41 APPENDIX A EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS.................................................................................................44 APPENDIX B SUPPORT TABLES ............................................................................................................46 APPENDIX C ECONOMIC ORGANIZATIONS – PASADENA COLLABORATIONS.................................52 APPENDIX D KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS...........................................................................................55 APPENDIX E PROJECT CONTACTS AND REFERENCES ......................................................................56 Stanley R. Hoffman Associates, Inc. i City of Pasadena April 6, 2011 Economic Development Strategy EXHIBITS 1-1 Regional Context Map ..................................................................................................................... 2 1-2 Census 2010 Data Release Schedule ............................................................................................... 4 2-1 Population and Households, 1990 to 2010....................................................................................... 6 2-2 Labor Force and Employment, 2008 ............................................................................................... 6 2-3 Estimation of Daytime Population, 2008......................................................................................... 6 2-4 Household Income, 2008 and 2008 ................................................................................................. 7 2-5 Educational Attainment, 2008 and 2008.......................................................................................... 7 2-6 Housing Tenure, 2000 and 2008...................................................................................................... 7 2-7 Employment Trends by NAICS Sectors, 2002 and 2008 ................................................................ 9 2-8 Distribution of Employment in Pasadena, 2008 .............................................................................. 9 2-9 Average Wage Growth by Sector, 2001 to 2008 ........................................................................... 10 2-10 Ranking of Sectors by Average Wage and Estimated City Average and Median, 2008 ............... 10 2-11 Top 8 NAICS Sector Average Wages, 2008.................................................................................. 11 2-12 Bottom 8 NAICS Sector Average Wages, 2008............................................................................ 11 2-13 Employment to Labor Ratios, 2008............................................................................................... 12 2-14 Ranking of Employment to Labor Ratios, 2008 ............................................................................ 12 2-15 Unemployment Rates, 2010........................................................................................................... 12 2-16 Total Taxable Sales in Pasadena, 1990 to 2009............................................................................. 13 2-17 Retail Taxable Sales in Pasadena, 2009......................................................................................... 13 2-18 Retail Taxable Sales per Capita in Pasadena, Tri-Cities and Los Angeles County, 2009 ............. 13 2-19 Average Annual Growth Rates of Growing Private Industry Sectors, 2002 to 2008 .................... 15 2-20 Annual Average Growth Rate of Declining Private Industry Sectors, 2002 to 2008 .................... 15 2-21 Location Quotient by Sectors (Higher than the Economic Region), 2002 and 2008..................... 16 2-22 Location Quotient by Sectors (Lower than the Economic Region), 2002 and 2008 ..................... 16 2-23 California Employment Growth, 1990 to 2010 ............................................................................. 17 2-24 Los Angeles County Share of CA Employment, 1990 to 2010 ..................................................... 17 2-25 Los Angeles County Location Quotients Relative to CA, 2009 .................................................... 17 2-26 Firm Size, 2008: All Sectors.......................................................................................................... 18 2-27 Firm Size, 2008: Professional, Scientific and Technical ............................................................... 18 2-28 Firm Size, 2008: Health Care and Social Assistance..................................................................... 18 2-29 Focus Areas Map ........................................................................................................................... 19 2-30 Central District Focus Area ........................................................................................................... 21 2-31 East Colorado Focus Area ............................................................................................................. 21 2-32 East Pasadena Focus Area ............................................................................................................. 21 2-33 Fair Oaks/Orange Grove Focus Area............................................................................................. 22 2-34 Lincoln Areas Focus Area ............................................................................................................. 22 2-35 North Lake Focus Area.................................................................................................................. 22 2-36 South Fair Oaks Focus Area .......................................................................................................... 23 2-37 West Gateway Focus Area............................................................................................................. 23 2-38 Distribution of Jobs by Focus Area, 2008...................................................................................... 24 3-1 Major Issues Identified by City Staff............................................................................................. 28 3-2 Overall Assessment of the City.....................................................................................................
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