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Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia

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Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia P1: KAE CUNY020B-FM CUNY020B/Collins 0521 83950 5 December 8, 2005 15:37 This page intentionally left blank i P1: KAE CUNY020B-FM CUNY020B/Collins 0521 83950 5 December 8, 2005 15:37 Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia This book is a study of the role of clan networks in Central Asia from the early twentieth century through 2004.Exploring the social, eco- nomic, and historical roots of clans, and their political role and politi- cal transformation during the Soviet and post-Soviet periods, this study argues that clans are informal political actors that are critical to under- standing politics in this region. The book demonstrates that the Soviet system was far less successful in transforming and controlling Central Asian society, and in its policy of eradicating clan identities, than has often been assumed. Clans increasingly influenced and constrained the regime’s political trajectory during the later Soviet and post-Soviet pe- riods, making liberalizing political and economic reforms very difficult. In order to understand Central Asian politics and the region’s economies today, scholars and policy makers must take into account the powerful role of these informal groups, how they adapt and change over time, and how they may constrain or undermine democratization in this strategic region. Kathleen Collins is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Univer- sity of Notre Dame. She has been a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Kellogg Institute for International Studies and the Harvard Davis Center for Russian Research. She holds the Notre Dame Junior Chair in Compar- ative Politics. She has published articles in World Politics, Comparative Politics,theJournal of Democracy, and several edited volumes. She has received grants from the MacArthur Foundation, the United States In- stitute of Peace, the International Research and Exchange (IREX), and the National Council for Eurasian and East European Research, among others. Dr. Collins was named a Carnegie Scholar in 2003 for her re- search. She has been conducting research throughout Central Asia since 1994. Her dissertation won the S. M. Lipset Prize awarded by the Soci- ety for Comparative Research, for the best dissertation in comparative politics or sociology in 2000. i P1: KAE CUNY020B-FM CUNY020B/Collins 0521 83950 5 December 8, 2005 15:37 ii P1: KAE CUNY020B-FM CUNY020B/Collins 0521 83950 5 December 8, 2005 15:37 Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia KATHLEEN COLLINS University of Notre Dame iii CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521839501 © Kathleen Collins 2006 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published in print format 2007 ISBN-13 978-0-511-27358-2 eBook (EBL) ISBN-10 0-511-27358-4 eBook (EBL) ISBN-13 978-0-521-83950-1 hardback ISBN-10 0-521-83950-5 hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. P1: KAE CUNY020B-FM CUNY020B/Collins 0521 83950 5 December 8, 2005 15:37 To my mother, an advocate of justice, truth, and human dignity. v P1: KAE CUNY020B-FM CUNY020B/Collins 0521 83950 5 December 8, 2005 15:37 vi P1: KAE CUNY020B-FM CUNY020B/Collins 0521 83950 5 December 8, 2005 15:37 Contents List of Tables and Figures page viii Preface xi Acknowledgments xv Note on Transliteration xix 1 An Introduction to Political Development and Transition in Central Asia 1 2 Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia: A Framework for Understanding Politics in Clan-Based Societies 23 3 Colonialism to Stalinism: The Dynamic between Clans and the State 62 4 The Informal Politics of Central Asia: From Brezhnev through Gorbachev 102 5 Transition from Above or Below? (1990–1991) 135 6 Central Asia’s Transition (1991–1995) 169 7 Central Asia’s Regime Transformation (1995–2004): Part I 209 8 Central Asia’s Regime Transformation (1995–2004): Part II 251 9 Positive and Negative Political Trajectories in Clan-Based Societies 298 10 Conclusions 331 Epilogue 345 Appendix 351 Index 365 vii P1: KAE CUNY020B-FM CUNY020B/Collins 0521 83950 5 December 8, 2005 15:37 Tables and Figures Tables 1.1. Political trajectories in the Post-Soviet Central Asian cases page 6 4.1. First secretaries/presidents of the Central Asian republics 109 4.2. Explaining clan pacts and transitional regime durability/collapse in Central Asia 133 5.1. Budget transfers and inter-republic trade levels of the Central Asian republics 157 5.2. Results of the referendum on the Union Treaty (March 17, 1991) 158 6.1. Indicators of Kyrgyzstan’s democratization 191 7.1. Results of the 1995 elections to the Jogorku Kenesh of Kyrgyzstan (February 5 and 19, 1995) 234 7.2. Results of the 1995 presidential election in Kyrgyzstan (December 25, 1995) 235 8.1. Results of the 1994 elections to the Oliy Majlis of Uzbekistan (December 25, 1994) 258 8.2. Results of the 1999 elections to the Oliy Majlis of Uzbekistan (December 5 and 19, 1999) 260 8.3. Results of the 1994 elections to the Majlisi Oli of Tajikistan 282 8.4. Results of 2000 elections to the Majlisi Oli of Tajikistan (single republican constituency, twenty-two seats, based on party list) 283 8.5. Results of 2000 elections to the Majlisi Oli of Tajikistan (single-mandate constituency, forty-one seats) 284 8.6. Changing patterns of power in Tajikistan 285 A.1. Ethno-national composition of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, 1989 (percent of total population) 356 A.2. Ethno-national composition of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, 1997 (percent of total population) 356 viii P1: KAE CUNY020B-FM CUNY020B/Collins 0521 83950 5 December 8, 2005 15:37 Tables and Figures ix A.3. Indicators of development level in the former Soviet republics at independence/beginning of transition 35 7 A.4. GDP (1992–2002): Central Asia and regional comparisons 358 A.5. Freedom House ratings: Central Asia and the post-Soviet region 35 9 A.6. Key economic and social indicators 360 A.7. Key governance and political stability indicators 361 Figures Map of Central Asia x 2.1. The vicious cycle of clan politics 54 3.1. Variation in types of clan networks 76 P CUNY 1 : x KAE Ob ym 5 ' l u 020 0 60 70 80 h 90 T C V u Krasnoyarsk ya Perm' r t a CENTRAL ASIA k y a I rtys e h s Tomsk i B-FM CUNY n e Vo Izhevsk Y ka lga Tom O ' Kazan' Tyumen' Yekaterinburg S u Novosibirsk r a RUSSIAN FEDERATION Novokuznetsk n Kurgan l o o D b Omsk Ufa o T Petropavl Penza Chelyabinsk Barnaul Voronezh Togliatti a b' r f l O e a i op lg Samara U s h o E K V Köshetau Magnitogorsk K B Qostanay a iya Saratov t u 020 - n 50 Rudnyy Pavlodar 0 Rubtsovsk 5 Orenburg U Oral r E B/Collins al sil is Orsk Astana Ert MONGOLIA 40 Semey UKRAINE 90 Volgograd Öskemen N - u Temirtau Aqtöbe r Rostov na Donu a a Qaraghandy Erti y x y a h ay Z rg u T Zaysan u rys Ir Sa giz Atyrau- 05 Astrakhan' Zhezqazghan Lake Balqash 21 KAZAKHSTAN Ürümqi 8 Taldyqorghan 3950 5 T ere I k Aral li Sh - Aqtau- Sea Qyzylorda u GEORGIA S Almaty y Almaty r Tbilisi D a r CHINA y a Caspian Zhambyl Ysyk Köl Nukus Bishkek December ARMENIA Sea im ar 40 Kara Shymkent T 40 AZERBAIJAN Bogaz Yerevan Urganch KYRGYZSTAN n Gol Dashhowuz Chirchiq ka Tashkent Tox UZBEKISTAN Angren Namangan Baku A H Türkmenbashi m o u Qukon Osh t D Farghona a n a han r avs t y er n Tabriz a Z a TURKMENISTAN Samarqand k 8 Kashi r a Bukhoro Y , Chärjew TAJIKISTAN CENTRAL ASIA 2005 15 Qarshi Dushanbe Rasht Ashgabat At Karakumsk rak Mary Canal M u - r Tehran g - a Qonduz Mashhad b 0200400 600 800 km ISLAMIC REPUBLIC Baghlan- PAKISTAN The boundries and names shown and the designations used OF on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance : IRAN AFGHANISTAN 0 100 200 300 400 500 mi 37 by the United Nations. 50 60 Kabul 70 80 Herat- INDIA Map No. 3763 Rev.6 UNITED NATIONS Department of Peacekeeping Operations June 2005 Cartographic Section P1: KAE CUNY020B-FM CUNY020B/Collins 0521 83950 5 December 8, 2005 15:37 Preface Trains in these parts went from East to West and from West to East. ...On either side of the railway lines lay the great wide spaces of the desert – Sary- Ozeki, the Middle lands of the yellow steppes. In these parts any distance was measured in relation to the railway, as if from the Greenwich meridian. ...And the trains went from East to West and from West to East. Chingiz Aitmatov, The Day Lasts More than a Hundred Years (1980) This is Central Asia, remote, exotic, and harsh. These are the words of Chingiz Aitmatov, a native Kyrgyz and father of the “Turkestani” movement in Soviet literature. Aitmatov seeks to capture the barrenness and isolation of Soviet Central Asia, its physical and metaphorical distance from Moscow, even at the close of the 1970s, after six decades of Soviet rule.
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  • Introduction O 3
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