Summer 2007, Vol 27, No 4

Feature Articles 7. Convention Round-up 34. The Haunted Sanitorium Barry Willims

10. David Hume: A skeptic’s sceptic 38. Witches and Africans James Allan Leo Igwe

14. The ‘Robustness’ of Climate Change 40. Can a Scientist Rely on Induction? Garth Paltridge Dan Carmody

17. Anomalistic Psychology 42. A Tale of Medical Horror Krissy Wilson Peter Willims

20. Religion Remains a Problem 50. Enquiring Minds Want to Know ... Neville Buch Ed Curnow

27. Report: A Ship of Skeptics 52. Space Travel Musings Richard Saunders Rex Newsome

30. What’s Wrong with Evolution? 52. Circumcision Facts Trump Anti-circ Myths Brian Baxter Brian Morris

Regular Items Forum 4. Editorial — Times of Change 60. To Snip or Not to Snip Barry Williams 63. The Power of Prayer 6. Around the Traps 64. Climate Change Bunyip 66. Letters News 68. Notices 46. WA Skeptics Awards Cover art by Richard Saunders Editorial

ISSN 0726-9897 Editor Barry Williams Associate Editor Changing Karen Stollznow Contributing Editors Tim Mendham Steve Roberts Technology Consultants Times Richard Saunders Eran Segev Chief Investigator Ian Bryce All correspondence to: Inc PO Box 268 Roseville NSW 2069 (ABN 90 613 095 379 ) Contact Details Tel: (02) 9417 2071 Fax: (02) 9417 7930 e-mails: [email protected]

Web Pages Australian Skeptics www.skeptics.com.au No Answers in Genesis™ www.noanswersingenesis.org.au the Skeptic is a journal of fact and opinion, published four times per year by Australian Skeptics Inc. Views and opinions expressed in articles and letters in the Skeptic are those of the authors, and are not necessar- ily those of Australian Skeptics Inc. Articles may be re- printed with permission and with due acknowledgement to the Skeptic. The Winners: Skeptic of the Year, Loretta Marron and Skeptiics Prize Editorial consultants: recipient, Dr Stephen Basser (medicine) Dr Trevor Case (psychology) Dr Richard Gordon (medicine) Dr Pete Griffith (biochemistry/microbiology) Dr William Grey (philosophy) t has been a very good year for Another factor in the increase was Prof Colin Groves (anthropology) Mr Martin Hadley (law) Ithe Skeptics, with our numbers — the appearance of our name and Dr Colin Keay (astronomy) somewhat static over the past few address in an annexe to Richard Dr Andrew Parle (physics) Prof Ian Plimer (geology) years — taking a decidedly upward Dawkins’ best selling book The God Dr Stephen Moston (psychology) trend. One factor that contributed to Delusion. A substantial number of Dr Alex Ritchie (palaeontology) Dr Steve Roberts (chemistry) this was a significant increase in the our new readers came to us from Mr Roland Seidel (mathematics) number of subscribers taking that source; we welcome them all Branch correspondents: advantage of out half-price gift and extend our sincere thanks to subscription offer, when renewing Prof Dawkins for including us in his ACT: Dr Pete Griffith Gold Coast: Mr John Stear their own subscription. This offer excellent book — if you haven’t yet Hunter: Dr Colin Keay has been so successful that we are read it, you should. Qld: Mr Bob Bruce SA: Mr Allan Lang happy to continue it, and urge all We are further heartened by the Tas: Mr Fred Thornett our subscribers to consider making a fact that at the recent convention Vic: Mr Ken Greatorex WA: Dr Geoffrey Dean Skeptical gift for the coming year. our major awards, the Skeptics Prize

Page 4 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 for Critical Thinking, Australian reporting and comment in the media Skeptics Around Australia Skeptic of the Year and the Bent today. Matt Price could be cutting, Spoon Award, all went to women. Of but always good natured and never course, women have always been vicious, in his dissection of the New South Wales vitally involved in the Skeptics at all absurdities of the national political Australian Skeptics Inc levels, but this public recognition of scene. The many tributes from all PO Box 268, Roseville NSW 2069 their contribution will go some way sides of politics attest to his popular- Tel: (02) 9417 2071 Fax: (02) 9417 7930 to dispelling our image as being a ity. His death, at the far too young [email protected] group consisting largely of ‘Fat Old age of 46, has removed a source of Hunter Skeptics Blokes with Beards’. (Not that pleasure for many people. PO Box 166 , Waratah NSW 2298 there’s anything wrong with The second death was that of the Tel: (02) 4957 8666. Fax: (02) 4952 6442 FOBwBs, as I’m sure you’ll agree.) English journalist, Alan Coren, The annual convention, the first latterly a columnist with The Times Victoria to be held in Tasmania, was an and The Daily Mail, but perviously Australian Skeptics (Vic) Inc outstanding success and stands as a the long-time editor of the now sadly GPO Box 5166AA, Melbourne VIC 3001 tribute to the dedication of the defunct Punch magazine. He had the Tel: 1 800 666 996 committee of our smallest branch — extraordinary ability to take a [email protected] the venue, the speakers and the snippet of major news, or a minor whole organisation were excellent. domestic crisis, and spin it into a Borderline Skeptics Some of the convention papers thousand words of pure delight. His PO Box 17 , Mitta Mitta VIC 3701 appear in this issue and we expect to work is, perhaps, not be as widely Tel:(02)60723632 have several more in following known in Australia as it should be, [email protected] issues and we expect to have a DVD but every couple of years his col- Queensland of the whole thing early in the new umns were published in book form Queensland Skeptics Assn Inc year. — I have them all and I treasure PO Box 6454 , Fairfield Gardens QLD 4103 Recently a couple of subscribers them all. Tel (07) 3255 0499 have taken the time to tell me how A measure of how Coren’s mind [email protected] much they like the way the Skeptic worked was demonstrated some portrays an atmosphere of good years ago, when one of his collec- Gold Coast Skeptics humour in its pages, commenting tions was due for publication. He PO Box 8348, GCMC Bundall QLD 9726 that this is not at all usual in asked his publisher what were the Tel: (07) 5593 1882 Fax: (07) 5593 2776 journals of a similar nature. I am best selling topics that year. The [email protected] grateful for the feedback, as it has answer was ‘cats, golf and Nazis’, always been my opinion that two of and so was born Golfing for Cats, ACT Canberra Skeptics the most valuable attributes a the cover illustrated by a plus-foured PO Box 555, Civic Square ACT 2608 Skeptic can aspire to are a robust puss teeing off towards a hole (02) 6231 5406 or 6296 4555 sense of humour and a finely-honed bearing a flag emblazoned with a [email protected] sense of the absurd. It has always swastika. He was 69 been my aim to maintain these Both men were skeptical, in the South Australia characteristics in our journal, which broadest sense of the word; both Skeptics SA aim has found favour with contribu- exhibited talents that made the real PO Box 377 , Rundle Mall SA 5000 tors and readers alike. world a little easier for us to endure. Tel: (08) 8272 5881 They are not just valuable charac- They are part of my pantheon of [email protected] teristics for Skeptics, of course, but great humorous writers, along with equally so for anyone who has our own Lennie Lower and the Western Australia intimate dealings with the ridicu- American S.J. Perelmen. I mourn WA Skeptics lous nature of the world we inhabit. them, I’ll miss them, and I wish I PO Box 431, Scarborough WA 6922 Tel: (08) 9448 8458 In this context, I am mourning the could write like them. [email protected] passing of two men I never knew; Finally, we wish all our readers both were journalists and both had the very best wishes for the holiday Tasmania the ability to make one smile, season. Thank you for your valued Australian Skeptics in Tasmania whatever situation one found one’s support, which we hope will con- PO Box 582, North Hobart TAS 7002. self in. tinue next year and far into the Tel: (03) 6234 4731 One was Matt Price, the national future. [email protected] political columnist of The Austral- ian, whose amiable but incisive take Darwin Skeptics Contact on the political scene stood in stark Tel: 08 89274533 contrast to much of what passes for Barry Williams [email protected]

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 5 News and Views Around the Traps

Good news An inquest found that she had been published in the Journal of the treated by her parents with homeo- British Interplanetary Society. Thus pathic remedies, rather than pre- the two scientists from NZ can claim ecently we heard some good scribed pharmaceuticals. The to have been the very first authors of Rnews on the alternative medi- coroner found that her parents’ satellite-tracking papers in the cine front, as academics and practi- negligence had caused the child’s Space Age. tioners of evidence based medicine death and recommended prosecu- Interesting, you say, but why is made public their concerns about the tion. this of interest to the Skeptic? Well proliferation of quackery. Sad, but that was one case of the doctoral candidate mentioned Following an announcement by many. Isn’t it time that state and was Dr Colin Keay, later to become the British Society of Homeopaths of federal regulatory authorities bit the the founder and stalwart of the a symposium on homeopathy and bullet and started investigating a Newcastle Skeptics, and an occa- AIDS, medical academics from whole range of alternatives to sional contributor to this journal. University College London went medicine and held them to the same G’donya Cosmo Col. public with their concerns about standards that apply to evidence claiming to treat a virulent ailments based medicine? with a process that does nothing at Fortune favours the Skeptic all. Michael Baum, emeritus professor Sputnik anniversary There could hardly have been a less of surgery said, “People say home- superstitious gathering than the opathy cannot do any harm, but On October 4 we celebrated the 50th end-of-year dinner the NSW Skep- when it is being promoted for HIV anniversary of the launching of the tics held this year at Peacock Gar- then there is a serious problem”, first artificial satellite, Sputnik I, dens restaurant. But the message in while David Colquhoun, professor of thus heralding the Space Age. Two the fortune cookie selected by our pharmacology said, “Making false scientists at the University of Editor seems amazingly apt. In case claims about treating colds is one Canterbury in New Zealand, physics you can’t read it, it says: thing, but it is quite another to make lecturer Dr Dick Anderson and a See for yourself and form your own con- false claims about malaria”. doctoral candidate, took note of Then a study into back pain, clusions instead of relying on the re- media reports of sightings (not of ports of others. conducted at Sydney University, Sputnik, but of the rocket casing) indicated that chiropractic manipu- and undertook a crash study of Quite! lation had no clinically useful effects. orbital dynamics. This was sufficient for them to make accurate predic- And bad news tions, leading to sightings on later evenings which resulted in many more witnesses of the historical Five years ago a 9-month-old baby event. girl died at Sydney Children’s Their visual observations were Hospital from bacterial infections. published the international journal The child was severely malnour- Astronautica Acta and their method ished, and had very serious eczema. of plotting the ground track was Bunyip

Page 6 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Report Convention Round-up

t took quite some time for the greatly appreciated by everyone who have several more in following Iannual Skeptics National Con- had the chance to speak with him. issues. vention to cross Bass Strait — 23 During the proceedings we heard A highlight was the well-catered years in fact — with the Tasmanian learned speakers addressing, from convention dinner, where our Branch, our smallest, concerned that varying perspectives, such topics as awards were announced. This was they might not have the numbers global warming; forestry and tree made even more interesting by the and resources to put on a worth- fact that, for the first time, all the while event. They worried in vain — major awards were won by women. the 23rd annual Skeptics National Convention, held in Hobart on the Prize for Critical Thinking weekend 17-18 November, was an The Australian Skeptics Prize for outstanding success. In the event, Critical Thinking is awarded for the number who turned up totalled “work that investigates popular more than twice the number of conventional wisdom and beliefs Tasmanian members, and they came which lack reliable evidence or from as far afield as Cairns and scientific method, and that promotes Perth. rational thinking about such mat- Organising the convention was ters by the public, educators and the not helped by the fact that Hobart media”. was also hosting a Test Match at The Prize is worth $10 000 to the Bellerive Oval on that weekend, but winner and we also can award up to it did allow your correspondent to two runner-up prizes. In Hobart we rub shoulders with members of the awarded the $10,000 to Kylie Sri Lankan team at breakfast. Sturgess, an English teacher from We were honoured that the MLC Perth, for her initiative in Tasmanian committee had convinced devising a course to encourage her a very distinguished person to open students to investigate popular the Convention and to deliver the beliefs using sceptical principles, her Keynote Address. Sir Guy Green AC, involvement in the Philosophy in KBE, CVO, was Governor of Tasma- Sir Guy Green opens the convention Schools project and for her innova- nia from 1995-2003 and had previ- tive use of the Internet to promote ously been Chief Justice of the state preservation; disposable nappies and sceptical and critical thinking. Kylie from 1973-1995. Sir Guy’s speech plastic shopping bags and how they had already won the 2006 runners- (which we hope to publish in the affected the environment; radioac- up prize; her comments on winning next issue) was both erudite and tive waste disposal; medical and the Prize appear at the end of this relevant to our concerns and was psychological quackery; philosophy report. very well received by the audience. and shonky diets. Fascinating and Additional prizes were awarded to However, the fact that he then topical stuff, well presented by student, Jayson Cooke for organis- stayed for the whole two days of the people who knew what they were ing the Griffith University Society convention, chatting with many talking about. Three of the papers for Skeptics and Freethinkers, and participants during intervals, was appear in this issue and we expect to magician, Nicholas Johnson of

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 7 Convention Round-up

Melbourne for his ‘Bad solving crimes. While Science’ program which other channels have uses humour and magic shown similar rubbish, to demonstrate dubious the Skeptics resent the scientific claims to high dumbing-down of “our school students. A ABC” and hold it to report on the activities much higher standards. of the GUSSF by Our congratulations Jayson Cooke appears (or commiserations) go to at the end of this all the worthy winners. report. Acknowledgements Skeptic of the Year This excellence of the Our other major award, Convention stands as a the accolade of Skeptic tribute to the hard work of the Year, went to of a number of people; Loretta Marron from Prize winners Kylie Sturgess and Loretta Marron, surrounded by Barry Williams, Tasmanian President, who, follow- Fred Thornett and Richard Saunders. Bryan Walpole, Treas- ing a diagnosis of urer, Chris Sharples, and breast cancer, suffered much addi- committee members Keith tional stress by being offered dozens Anderson, Doug Beath, Alan of worthless treatments and gadgets. Bottomley, Eva Leppard, Leyon Incensed, Loretta (in her guise as Parker and Paul Turvey, the many ‘The Jelly Bean Lady’) has used her interstate Skeptics who chaired considerable communications skills sessions and, of course to Sir Guy to use the media to counter the Green and all the excellent speak- amount of freely available false ers, who willingly gave of their time information about health matters, and expertise — thanks to you all. and to persistently lobby regulators Special thanks must go to Richard to do their duty of regulating dubi- Saunders, whose skills with the ous claims and treatments. video camera and tape editing desk Loretta has contributed a number mean that the entire Convention of fine articles to the Skeptic , which will soon be available on a two-disk activity we hope she will continue DVD set for all those who unfortu- into the future. nately couldn’t attend. And thanks also to Eran Segev who supplied the Bent Spoon Award. still photos used in this issue. Eran Our final, and far less sought-after was born and raised in Israel before award was the annual Bent Spoon migrating to Australia, where he Award, “presented to the perpetrator Sarah Wilkes discussed science and activism became a knowledgeable cricket of the most preposterous fanatic. If that doesn’t piece of paranormal count as an immigration piffle”. This year’s success story, it’s hard to winner drew a large imagine what would. number of nominations However, a very big on our web site, and in part of the credit must an almost unanimous go to the indefatigable vote, it went to Marena Secretary of Tasmanian Manzoufas, Head of Skeptics, Fred Thornett, Programming at whose organisational ABCTV. She won for skills and terrier-like authorising the appall- determination kept the ing Psychic Investigators whole thing together. If television show, which Fred wasn’t already a purported to be a Life Member, he would documentary series deserve a nomination. showing psychics Great work, everyone. Fred Thornett is ‘delighted’ to receive a can of Japanese whale meat from Steve Roberts assisting police in

Page 8 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Kylie Sturgess on winning the Prize topic on the Griffith University forum for months. We have been fortunate to his Award means that I am promote, or attend, talks by Dr Karl Tnow able to further not only Kruszelnicki, Profs Ian Frazer, K. my own education, but investigate Barry Sharpless, Bill Phillips, and and promote critical thinking Alister McGrath. We are in the programs for the future. process of inviting representatives I first began my journey by of various paranormal organisa- enrolling in professional develop- tions as well as practitioners of ment run by the Federation of various alternative medicines to Australasian Philosophy in Schools give demonstrations of their work in 2003; now I am a member of and explain what it is that they APIS (www.philosophywa.com) and claim to do exactly, as well as write and present for the new answer the many questions I’m Philosophy and Ethics course that sure will arise. will start in 2008. Next semester we have invited Speaking at the Amaz!ng Meet- the inaugural winner of the Aus- ing in 2007, I reflected upon the Jayson Cook, with daughter Charlie at Mt Tamborine tralian Skeptics’ Prize for Critical work my students did over the past (where the Editor was born). Thinking, Martin Bridgstock, to two years when entering the WA come to the Gold Coast Campus to Skeptics Awards, and urged others tralia, but hopefully with our success give a talk. Mystery Investigator, to consider contributing to and (most others will be motivated to follow Richard Saunders, has agreed to importantly) trialing critical think- suit. come from Sydney to give an eagerly ing projects, camps and on-line Our inaugural sign-on day was a anticipated presentation. We also ventures, to better ascertain what huge success with so many people have magician/comedian Peter Booth actually works when teaching from degree courses ranging from on board and ready to dazzle us with critical thinking in the secondary business and hospitality to philoso- his skeptically themed performances. years. phy, science and psychology. We now I would really like to thank Lilian This year I also completed my have daily drop-in sessions for anyone Derrick from the Gold Coast branch first MEd in Special Learning with a spare hour, discussing a range and Bob Bruce from the Brisbane Needs, began my Graduate Diploma of topics such as “the great climate branch of Australian Skeptics, as well in Psychology and started my MEd change debate” and alternative as Richard Saunders for their great thesis on and what medicine. support and advice. Also, Debbie influences “Generation Y”. The If anyone has ever wanted a group Goddard from The Centre for Inquiry Australian Skeptics have had a like this on their campus but has had on Campus has provided a great deal major part in all of this, by encour- doubts about starting one up, I of material and support and is very aging, inspiring and showing me recommend giving it a go. You may be enthusiastic about helping groups that questioning is vital to finding surprised at how many like minded like ours start out, as well as giving what truly does benefit us all, people you will find, and just how continuing advice and support whether it be the claims of media rewarding such an endeavour can be. www.campusfreethought.org/. mavens, health practitioners, Traditionally cultural clubs and If anyone would like to start a paranormal pundits — and certainly groups that begin mid-year as we group at their campus, then feel free improving the education of young have do not do well and usually to contact me at any time at people. founder within weeks, but our group [email protected] and check has gone from strength to strength. our website at www.gussf.org. We now have a website at Of course, and critical Runner-up, Jayson Cooke www.gussf.org, and have had the No1 thought has a long and wonderful tradition, with so many great figures am the founder/president of the we could all easily deify. However, we IGriffith University Society for must always learn from what has Skeptics and Freethinkers (GUSSF). come before, in order to prepare for As a cultural club, we have been in and influence the future. We all have existence officially since August 7, huge shoes to fill and a lot of work to 2007 and already we are making an do, but I cannot think of anything impact both on campus and in the more rewarding and satisfying of all local community, and are gaining a lot fields of human endeavour than what of recognition. As far as I am aware, we do. we are the only such group in Aus-

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 9 Convention Paper David Hume: A Skeptic’s Sceptic

he philosopher David Hume is Which brings me to Hume’s Twidely considered to be one of character. Remarkably for a philoso- the handful of great philosophers in pher (think of the personal lives of the history of thought. He wrote on Rousseau or Marx or Russell) he was politics, morality, the existence of almost universally liked. Even the God, , the mind, miracles Churchmen liked him, and Hume and many other topics. But in his was a more or less out-of-the-closet own lifetime he was best known as atheist back when it was still almost an historian. dangerous to be one. He is worth a talk at this confer- After David Hume died, here is ence for this reason: he is the intel- what Adam Smith, the author of The lectual forefather of all modern day Wealth of Nations, said of his friend: sceptics. One might quibble and Upon the whole, I have always consid- want to go back to the Sophists in ered him, both in his lifetime and since classical times, but really Hume is his death, as approaching as nearly to the first great sceptic who brings a the idea of a perfectly wise and virtu- questioning mind to the issues of ous man, as perhaps the nature of hu- modern life. man frailty will permit. Today I will just have time to give In short, Hume was a nice person you an overview of some of his — he was certainly a very smart thinking and pick out a few issues person. Now I’m not going to go that will be of particular interest to through any of his works in particu- this group. Firstly, however, let me lar, instead I’m going to run through give the outline of his life. He lived Hume’s views in the areas most from 1711 to 1776 and was the relevant to a group such as the younger brother in a minor aristo- Skeptics. cratic family in Scotland. For the first half of his life, and more, he Human reason lived a very frugal existence. He died rich. In his teenage years he suf- The place to start is with human fered a minor breakdown at the reason. Hume argued that reason prospect of being a merchant. He was either deductive (demonstra- was very good friends with Adam tive) or it was inductive (causal). Smith (who was younger than he) Deductive reason calculates the and started writing in his early 20s. relation between ideas, as in math- James Allan is Garrick Professor of Law, He didn’t stop until he died. Hume ematics and logic. . Born in Canada, for also personally helped the French mathematics 2+2=4 ten years he was a member of the New Zealand political philosopher Rousseau to logic: All bachelors are single Skeptics. escape to England and for his efforts www.law.uq.edu.au/professor-james-allan was pilloried by Rousseau. Both these involve a comparison of ideas.

Page 10 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 On the other hand there is causal said, “None but a fool or madman action — that there’s a struggle reason, which calculates based on will ever pretend to dispute the between reason and passion. experience. Hume is famous for authority of experience, or reject This picture is false, says Hume. pointing out that causal reason will that great guide of human life”. Reason can tell us how to get a beer never lead us to deductive certainty. What Hume does, then, is first to (get up and go to the fridge or whine For example, if event B follows event discredit traditional views of the until my wife brings one over) but A 10 million times in a row there is influence and role of demonstrative reason cannot make us want a beer. still no deductive or demonstrative reason (ie, logic) — it cannot even Hume’s view was that reason was or logical ground for thinking it will lead to knowledge of the everyday impotent. Passions, sentiments and follow the next time. In other words, world of facts. Then he simply says desires move action. there is no logical or demonstrative such doubting is superfluous. No The implications for moral theory ground for believing in causation. person could sincerely and con- are enormous. We don’t treat person So the question that needs to be stantly hold such sceptical views. X in a civilised way because reason asked is how do you move from In other words, belief in such tells us to. Reason is inert. We do so observed past events to a belief in basic things as causation, physical because we have sentiments and unobserved future events? It cannot existence or personal identity is not preferences (moral ones — Hume be by using or relying on a priori (or rational in the strict, narrow deduc- calls them ‘virtues’) that make us demonstrative) reasoning. Deductive tive sense. Rather it is natural and want to do so. Where do these moral reason provides no grounds for universal, a contingent but real sentiments come from? Some are inferring one’s past experiences characteristic of human nature. instinctive (eg, limited benevolence entail a similar outcome in future. (Hume used the same strategy such as the love of one’s children). That led Hume to conclude that against the philosopher Berkeley Today we’d give these sentiments an deductive reason can never provide and Berkeley’s claim that we can’t evolutionary explanation. Others, grounds for moving from particular know there’s a physical world though, form slowly by convention, instances (even a thousand or a because all our information comes social interaction, education and million or ten million) to a conclu- from the senses.) indoctrination. Think of justice. sion about nature’s uniformity. And that’s that. It is simply a fact Clearly more is needed than just a To go from (1) All known Xs are Y about human beings that the future claim that justice is instinctive. to (3) All Xs are Y requires the will be judged in terms of the past. Notice that if moral actions are further premise ‘The future will Of course we will have to ask ques- ultimately moved or motivated by conform to the past’. But this just tions about justification — how sentiments, preferences, emotions, states the conclusion to be proved. many observations are safe and feelings and desires (however much The point is that there is no way under what circumstances? What do instinctive or socially constructed) to prove (à la logic or demonstration) meta-analyses and statistics tell us? and reason plays only a ‘means to an the uniformity of nature and hence But Hume is now where he wants to end’ role, then morality ultimately is causation. With respect to matters of be. From here on the basis of all contingent on the sentiments people fact (or appeals to experience), knowledge for him is causal reason, happen to have (however much regularity to date can never entail ie, empirical knowledge, induction. they’ve been formed by evolution or necessity. So what does the great We still have deductive knowledge, social forces). The closest one gets to sceptic Hume do at this point? but its importance is much smaller universal morality is the extent to than causal knowledge, though that which certain sentiments happen Causation is not to deny there is a significant (based on experience) to be shared He says ‘Look, all humans do believe role for higher mathematics, say. across the species. But even the in causation, in the supposition that What next? Well, Hume next claim that torturing children causes the future resembles the past’. It’s a asserts these two realms are the revulsion is not true as regards all natural belief; it’s the way humans only realms of reason. There is people always. have been constructed. (Hume talks deductive reason and there is causal For Hume, such conduct or in terms of the association of ideas.) reason but nothing else. attitudes are not irrational or unreasonable, though use of such Those people who pretend to doubt Morality the uniformity of nature are speak- words can help win political battles. ing in bad faith. (In more modern This is important when he turns to Rather they are the product of a terms Hume invites this sort of morality because there is a long- person who has sentiments and radical sceptic to jump out of his 8th standing notion (going back to Plato desires the vast preponderance of us Floor Office window. He won’t. He and before) that when human beings dislike or despise. too believes in causation.) are making moral choices that reason If you think about it you’ll see So Hume is not a nihilist or can somehow control the emotions why Hume is the great moral Pyrrhonist or arch-sceptic. As he and sentiments. Reason can move sceptic. He is sceptical about any

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 11 David Hume universal moral law of conduct or of Hierarchy makes some better off than revelation. Indeed Hume shows how transcendent rightness and wrong- others and so is bad. these two represent inconsistent ness. As it happens, he was himself Better yet, to see the logical flaw strains in religious thought. a terrific person — kind, generous, consider the is/ought move in this benevolent. What does he say then form: On miracles to the psychopath, the person who The third and final topic of Hume’s has no social feelings and is pre- There are many bank robberies so bank robberies ought to be encouraged. I’ll discuss here is his writing on pared to do the most awful things if miracles. This seems an apt place to We see immediately that this is he can get away with them? Hume finish at a Skeptics’ Conference. Of ridiculous. The way the world is or doubts there is anything to say. course the recognition of miracles is happens to be will sometimes be the Reason won’t do anything. You can a traditional support for the exist- way it ought to be, and sometimes try to instil different desires through ence of God (eg, virgin births, not. habit and conditioning. But this is walking on water, water into wine, By the way, Hume’s insight about unlikely to work often. Basically you resurrections, two miracles before this naturalistic fallacy undermined can only feel sorry for such a person. becoming a saint). The general the whole of the natural law tradi- “He’s just a different sort of person argument that relies on them goes tion (which went back to Aristotle than I am” says Hume. (For exam- something like this: ple, the parent who has no feelings and through Aquinas into Catholic Such and such remarkable events have of love for his child.) Church orthodoxy). After Hume, the occurred. Therefore God exists and in- Notice that at a deep level all of natural law tradition — the idea tervenes, from time to time, in the ordi- morality becomes contingent. If that man has or is born to do certain nary world. everyone thinks slavery is a good functions and goals (‘is’ claims) and practice then it is. We might point to so fulfilling them is morally good However, Hume’s essay on Mira- its effects — its inefficiencies, its (‘ought’ claims) — went into crisis. cles (section 10 of his Enquiry ruthlessness. But if people have no Concerning Human Understanding) feeling against it then nothing about Philosophy of religion is an argument against all kinds of reason will change them nor can one The second last area of Hume’s and delusion. His point say such a practice is irrational or writings I’ll mention is his work in is an epistemological one. It’s about unreasonable. the philosophy of religion. Let me whether we can know a miracle has As I said, Hume is the great focus on one work in particular. It’s a happened, as opposed to whether moral sceptic and his views proceed short book called Dialogues Concern- one really did take place (which from his views about reason. ing Natural Religion. It was pub- would be an ontological or meta- lished posthumously (1779). Hume physical argument). Put differently, Naturalistic fallacy was leery of publishing it while Hume’s argument does not try to Let’s turn to three more quick topics. alive. It is a masterpiece in the show that miracles never do happen The first is related to Hume’s view of philosophy of religion, written in or never could happen, but only that morality. Hume famously declared dialogue form between the sceptic we never have very good reasons for that it was a logical mistake to move (Philo), the deist (Cleanthes) and the believing that they have happened. from questions and comments on rigid orthodox, inflexible literalist That means that Hume does not this ‘is’ level to answers and com- (Demea). The main point is to imply the very concept of a miracle ments on the ‘ought’ level. “You undermine the argument for design, is incoherent. cannot validly derive the ‘ought’ namely that we know there’s a God So here’s Hume’s argument about from the ‘is’. They are different because we see signs of design all miracles. It comes in two parts. The copula relations.” around us. This is the argument of central argument is in Part I of This is the so-called ‘naturalistic those who try to make an analogy Section 10 of Enquiries Concerning fallacy’. It is still very common. between the products of human the Principles of Morals and a few We’ve all heard such claims as that design (like watches) and the works secondary reasons for doubting ‘homosexuality is unnatural and so of nature (like an eye). miracles are in Part II. Let’s run wrong’. But to say that is to make a Hume undermines this argument through the Part II reasons first, category or logical error. The way completely. In the course of doing so then come back to the main argu- things are does not tell us the way he hints at an evolutionary explana- ment. things ought to be. Ought claims tion (which is pretty good given there Hume’s main secondary argu- may be true or may be false. Con- were no such explanations then); he ments against miracles are: sider a couple of other examples: shows the flaws in the positions of A. There are really no well-attested both the open-minded Jeffersonian miracles; (ie, when it comes to miracu- Women are less aggressive than men deist, who accepts an unmoved mover lous claims you need high standards of and hence morally better and more de- sort of non-Christian God and the reporting and checking to guard against serving of power. literalist Christian who appeals to falsehood and self-doubt.)

Page 12 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 B. People have a positive tendency to timony would be more miraculous than (c) Hume missed the importance of in- believe what is strange and marvellous; the fact it seeks to establish. dependent witnesses to an event. Eg, C. Reports of miracles usually come from That implies that Hume seems to two independent witnesses to an event the ignorant and barbarous; allow for the acceptance of a miracle are more than twice as good as each report, on the balance of probabili- would be on his own. Why? The likeli- D. The purpose for advancing the mi- ties, but never with more than a hood of falsehood and mistake goes way raculous claim is often self-serving (eg, very low degree of conviction. There down with every additional witness (pro- to introduce a new religion or to make are three possibilities: vided each is independent and there is money) and this in itself is a ground for no collusion). scepticism. (i) if the miracle claim is more unlikely than false reports (mistaken or dishon- So it boils down to this. Those Clearly these are not conclusive est) => reject miracle. who deny the occurrence of a miracle arguments, indeed they are of have two alternative lines of de- unequal force. But they give us (ii) if the unlikelihoods of the miracle fence: Call them Hume’s Fork. claim and of false reports are equal => grounds for a high degree of initial 1. Say “Yes”, the event occurred but wait for fresh information and consid- caution and scepticism. in fact it was in accord with the laws erations. Put these aside and turn now to of nature after all (eg, unknown cir- Hume’s central argument against (iii) if the miracle claim is less unlikely cumstances made it possible or there miracles. The argument has to do than false reports => accept the miracle were as yet unknown kinds of natu- with a principle that governs the (but only with the degree of conviction ral causation). acceptance of testimony (ie, when to that corresponds to the difference be- or believe what one is told on any tween the two unlikelihoods — ie, a very matter). A false report can only be low one). 2. Say that this event would have vio- false in two ways, says Hume. Now bring back the four Part II lated a natural law but for that rea- (a) the person might be mistaken; considerations. They are secondary son there’s a very, very strong (b) the person might be deceiving you. grounds to show that although (ii) presumption against its having hap- pened. Indeed, it’s most unlikely that Hume notes that experience and (iii) are conceivable, they are likely never actually to be realised, any testimony will be able to out- shows people generally tell the truth weigh the presumption. and generally are not mistaken. So or at least the chances are ex- we have this built in presumption to tremely slim going in. So, again, One of the two branches of believe, all things being equal. But miracles may happen. But we never Hume’s Fork will usually be leave that aside for a second because have good reasons for believing that stronger than the other (depending there’s a third factor: they do. on the circumstances). Eg, miracu- Let me finish with a few com- lous cure reports may be (1) (eg, (c) What is the intrinsic likelihood or ments. To start, the general princi- shark’s cartilage) while claims about unlikelihood of whatever is being re- ple Hume puts forward for the bringing back to life the dead are (2). ported? evaluation of testimony seems The intrinsic improbability of a Accordingly, the question, says correct. You weigh the unlikelihood genuine miracle is very great. One Hume, is this: of the event reported against the or other of the explanations in Which of these two is the more unlikely: unlikelihood that the reports are Hume’s Fork will always be more likely. This is true, by the way, even A. That he should be telling you this mistaken or dishonest. Today we’d where the miracle is personally and it not be so (therefore he’s mistaken add: experienced (not reported). That is, or dishonest) (a) Such weighing takes place against a either the operative laws were not or body of information that, though over- all stable, does change. Thus decisions what one had supposed them to be B. That he should be telling you this at the margins are provisional. (Eg, (branch (1)) or the evidence of our and it is so (that is, the event he reports, quantum theory, medical powers of na- senses is more likely to be wrong whatever intrinsic unlikeliness attaches tive plants.) than that everything we know and to it, actually did happen)? accept about the world has been And note that this question has to (b) It is not enough for the defender of a violated. One may have misobserved be answered against the background miracle to cast doubt (as well he might) or been fooled by a conjurer or be of the way the world works (namely, on the certainty of our knowledge of the misremembering or be suffering the laws of nature as far as we know laws of nature that seem to have been wish fulfilment. There may even them at the time). Hume concludes violated. He also needs to assert the have been a distorting lapse of time. that: event was contrary to a genuine (not just Isn’t it remarkable that David supposed) law of nature or it wasn’t a Hume saw all that and more some No testimony is sufficient to establish miracle. quarter of a millennium ago? a miracle, unless the falsity of such tes-

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 13 Convention Paper The ‘Robustness’ of Climate Change

On the difficulty of accurately his talk is designed to raise a long thereafter. Basically this is interpreting climate data Tfew of the problems of ‘general because of the growth of sub-grid- circulation climate models’ (GCMs) scale eddies which seem to come out which are the main tool for forecast- of nowhere. ing future climate. It is easy enough One can have a stab at forecast- to find the problems, but not so easy ing the average rate of rise — largely to suggest ways of getting around because the flue constricts the sizes them, so let me say right at the start of eddies to less than the size of the you are going to be disappointed if flue and one can therefore get some are looking for solutions. Let me also sort of reasonable average of what is say that, because some of the issues going on. That average is about all are fairly esoteric, one can predict. there will be a fair The climate amount of hand- system is much like waving argument — the smoke only vastly for which my excuse is more complicated. that things have to be There are at least simplified for a gen- two separate turbu- eral audience. Anyone lent media with who knows anything turbulent processes about the subject will going on inside them, recognise that excuse and there are all as nonsense. The sorts of physical actual reason is that I scales of boundary don’t fully understand conditions which may the topic myself. or may not allow So let us start with prediction of certain a plume of cigarette average conditions smoke rising into over scales less than some sort of flue (Fig the size of the Earth 1). The plume breaks — ie, less than global into turbulent flow average. To repeat — with lots of random Fig.1 it seems reasonable eddies whose behav- to assume that one iours almost by definition are ought to be able in principle to Emeritus Professor Garth W. Paltridge has held unpredictable. One can throw a grid forecast the global averages of positions as Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO of measurement (as dense as you climate — but forecasting averages Div of Atmospheric Research, Director of the like) all over the plume at some on smaller scales gets more and Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean particular time, but won’t be able to more problematic. As a first guess Studies at UTAS and CEO of the Antarctic CRC. forecast the eddy behaviour for very one might be able to forecast things

Page 14 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 over the scale of ocean basins, but flapping of a few butterfly wings over tions of the Earth-atmosphere system — one cannot really expect much more Hobart next Thursday? In any event, if this on the assumption that the very tur- detailed skill than that. (as some would have it) butterfly wings bulence of the atmosphere and ocean on This hasn’t stopped people trying. can introduce massive fluctuations in the smaller scales provides sufficient de- It’s a fairly popular technique these real future climate, they will produce a grees of freedom for an overall constraint days in order to get over this busi- particular climate distribution which to be operative. All sorts of constraints ness of growth of sub-grid-scale may not have anything to do with the have been suggested. Some of them have eddies to run ensembles of global ensemble average of a lot of grid point been reasonably successful (at least at climate models — ie, to use GCMs models. simulating present conditions), and are (which are things which throw a (2) In the search for robust results — even backed by some real and provable dense computational and measure- which effectively boils down to looking physics. The problem is that it seems al- ment grid over the atmosphere and for areas of the Earth of certain geo- most impossible to imagine ways in ocean), start them running into the graphical size for which averages of cer- which broad overall constraints can be future with initial conditions taken tain parameters don’t fluctuate too much applied to GCMs, since GCM’s are de- from measured averages at each of about the ensemble average — one has signed specifically to do their calcula- the grid points, and look at the to bear in mind the fundamental differ- tions on the small so-called ‘local’ scale. ence between (say) a parameter The bottom line here is a cultural one. like temperature and a parameter The climatology profession is reluctant like rainfall. According to the Le to give up on the hope that detailed fore- Chatelier Principle (a sort of lim- casts are possible in principle. The pros- ited version of the second law of pect of having to put up with only the thermodynamics which some of us broadest averages is too difficult to coun- heard about at school in chemis- tenance. try classes) temperature is highly The rather obvious point to all Fig. 2 conservative. That is, a system al- this (known at least subconsciously ways seems to work hard to iron by almost everyone) is that the out fluctuations in temperature. fundamental problem is still to forecast output (Fig. 2). The process As a consequence there seems to be a define over what sort of minimum is repeated for lots of similar trials natural tendency to yield reasonable space and time scales is it even with small changes in the initial averages if such things exist. On the theoretically possible to predict conditions, and then one looks for other hand I don’t think anyone has ever changes in average climate when what are called “robust results” — heard of a sort of Le Chatelier Principle one clouts the Earth over the head that is, averages of some parameter concerning rainfall. It is not surprising with some sort of bat. or another over some particular that forecasts of rainfall — by far the scale or another for which changes most significant climate variable as far Global average climate in the initial conditions don’t seem as people are concerned — are spectacu- Enough of detail, and let us look at to make too much difference. These larly unsuccessful in practice, and spec- the global-average climate because particular robust results at least (it tacularly variable and non-robust from one can at least be reasonably is imagined) should represent what one model to another. hopeful that such an average ought will happen in the real world. (3) To the extent that there are at least to be predictable in principle. We Issues some large scales over which averages of some climate parameters are robust There are quite a few issues about (predictable in principle?), it seems rea- this. sonable to guess that there ought to be (1) There is a tendency to imagine that, some cunning physics which can be ap- quite apart from the specific case of ‘ro- plied to the climate system on that sort bust forecasts’, the simple average of the of scale to make those forecasts — this, runs (the so-called ensemble average) is rather than pursue ever-more resolution the most likely to represent the future and ever more detail with ever-bigger of the real atmosphere and ocean. There computer models when we know per- may be some truth to this, but it relies fectly well that this small-scale on a basic assumption that changes in stuff has no forecasting signifi- the discretely sampled initial conditions cance. And indeed lots of people have the same sort of consequence as have tried to apply overall con- real small-scale fluctuations in the real straints (ie, laws dealing with fluid. Do they really have the same ef- the broad overall behaviour of Fig. 3 fect on future real climate as (say) the climate) to simpler representa-

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 15 Climate Change will talk about feedbacks on global- and lapse rate (LR). There is also feedback of water vapour is much average temperature. the spread (All) of the overall gains less important than any of the The two equations on the left of of the models, corresponding to the respectable models suggest. Indeed Fig. 3 are the simplest possible extremes of the cross hatching in the there is experimental evidence from representations of the response of previous figure. balloon radiosonde data to support surface temperature to (say) doubled In principle there is no reason the possibility, although satellite ∆∆∆ data generally does not. The point is CO2. T0 is the rise in temperature why any particular model’s indi- when there are no feedbacks, and F vidual-process gains are more that both types of measurement is sum of the individual feedback realistic than any other (or indeed ‘gains’ associated with all those those of any model which is not so different processes dependent on respectable!!). So if all the individual surface temperature. Note that all processes were truly independent sorts of trouble would ensue if F gets there would be no reason why the up to 1.0. The overall temperature spread of total gains could not be as response would be infinite. The large as that indicated by the graph on the right of Fig. 3 is simply vertical dashed line. Suffice it to say a plot of the equation. Note the 1.2K that the relatively narrow range of rise for no feedbacks, the infinite total gains displayed by the actual rise for F=1, and the cross hatched models (roughly 0.4 to 0.8) is fairly edges which indicate the range of surprising, and must come about for total feedback gains (and corre- one of two reasons: Either the sponding temperature rises) for the individual process gains are corre- dozen or so respectable models for lated in some convenient way, or which data on feedback is available. there has been some subconscious choice of process parameterisation to Feedback keep the gains within physical The vertical black lines of Fig. 4 are bounds. Personally I suspect that Fig. 5 plots of the spreads of the individual there is a bit of both involved in the business. On the one hand the literature talks at some length about have their problems, and at this a correlation between water vapour time it is largely a matter of per- and lapse rate. On the other, a lot of sonal preference as to which type of subconscious tuning effort goes into measurement is the more likely to ensuring that climate models don’t be correct. run off the rails of reasonableness. The bottom line is as shown in The most uncertain of the indi- Fig. 5 by the range indicated in the vidual feedback gains must be that bar along the axis of feedback gain. to do with cloud feedback. The range The modelling situation cannot shown above is virtually all in really be described as ‘robust’ when positive feedback territory (higher it wouldn’t take much fiddling with temperatures involve less cloud) the individual feedback Fig. 4 which is intuitively a bit suspicious. parameterisations to give tempera- After all, higher temperatures go ture rises covering the whole range feedback process gains over the with more water vapour in the of less than 1K to infinity. various models — this taken from a atmosphere. Unfortunately the paper by Bony et al late last year matter is completely unarguable Mystery (2006) and redrawn in terms of since there is no direct experimental It is a great mystery as to what feedback gain rather than of the evidence one way or the other. might be done about the matter, corresponding change of net radia- Certainly a large negative cloud since there is precious little direct tion flux at the top of the atmos- feedback (as likely a situation as any experimental verification of any of phere. Note that there is no real other) would drag the total feedback these process parameterisations. bunching of the individual model right down and lead to much smaller The big danger is that, with increas- gains within the overall spread increases in temperature from ing model complexity and cost, the represented by the vertical lines. We number of truly independent climate doubled CO2 (say) than are currently are looking at the spreads of the fashionable. models around the world is decreas- feedback gains for water vapour And it is still quite possible that (WV), cloud (Cl), surface albedo (Al), the apparently dominant positive Continued p 19 ...

Page 16 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Convention Paper Anomalistic Psychology The Science of Self-Deception

am aware that I am last speaker, nothing remotely paranormal about Ion what has been a fairly intense this, it is merely the demonstration two days, and that it is 4.15 and no of population stereotypes which can doubt, you are beginning to wilt a be used effectively by unscrupulous little, so I will keep this relatively ‘psychics’ in an attempt to convince undemanding. It will be light on people of their extraordinary pow- data, heavy on attitude but I do have ers! some fun pictures and I will round As Terry mentioned in his intro- things off with a bit of rock and roll. duction, I have recently emigrated So hopefully, I can keep you all from the UK and I have taken up a awake for the next 40 minutes or so. position here at UTAS, as a lecturer I usually begin my presentations in Psychology. My main field of by telling the audience that I am in interest is the psychology of belief; fact psychic, that my grandmother why people believe in the most told me that I had ‘the gift’ when I extraordinary phenomena despite was six years old etc, and then very little convincing evidence to demonstrate my remarkable psychic support their claims. Needless to powers. But, given that today I am say, there are a variety of reasons addressing an audience of skeptics, why people believe in the paranor- somehow, I don’t think you would mal. I do not have time in this believe me, and furthermore Jim presentation to go into all of these rather stole my thunder yesterday reasons, but I do think it is impor- with his mind reading antics. So, tant to mention one issue that has instead, I am going to demonstrate been alluded to already at this your psychic abilities! I want you all convention. to think of a number between 1 and Clearly, the media has much to ten. Don’t choose 3, because that’s answer for in this regard. I feel that too obvious. the largely uncritical coverage of Well, that’s pretty amazing. I am paranormal issues and related definitely picking up some ‘residual phenomena on television has a lot to psychic energy’ in this room. Let’s do with promoting the validity of try for something more difficult. I’d some of these beliefs. I do not know, like you to think of a number under as yet, the extent of this on Austral- 50, two digits, both odd and not the ian television, but certainly in the same. OK. How many of you were UK, on any given evening, there will Krissy Wilson recently completed a doctorate thinking 37? The really telepathic be at least one programme devoted in psychology at the University of London and amongst you may have been con- to a paranormal issue. Rarely are is now a Lecturer at the School of Psychology, fused because at one point I thought these programmes critical of the . of 35 but changed my mind. So how evidence to support the claims. [email protected] many had 35? Of course, there is Sometimes an informed Skeptic is

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 17 Anomalistic Psychology wheeled on to give an opinion, but in for ostensibly paranormal events really do exist or we can learn a lot my own experience, one is very and I will give you some examples. about the human condition by much portrayed as Dr Evil, the Finally, I am interested in investi- studying paranormal experiences. professional party pooper. Typically, gating the notion of a belief ‘person- the retort I get from believers on ality’. Is it possible, for example, Cognitive biases such occasions is, “OK, Miss Smarty- that certain types of people are more In a recent paper with my colleague, Pants, what do you believe?” To this, likely to believe? Are certain person- Professor , we describe I always give the same answer. I alities more susceptible to belief in in detail some of the psychological believe wholeheartedly in the the paranormal and to report processes (or cognitive biases) that seemingly limitless capacity of paranormal experiences? might be relevant in explaining why human self-deception. We can be When you mention that you are we misinterpret some situations as convinced of anything, it seems. an Anomalistic Psychologist, it is involving paranormal forces when in Indeed, a good friend of mine con- often assumed that you are some fact they do not (French & Wilson, tends that belief may in fact be an sort of wacky funster who spends 2007). For example, most of us have innate quality. Certainly from an their weekends cavorting in haunted a very poor understanding of prob- evolutionary perspective, it would houses, armed with various odd bits abilities. Consider the following: how make sense. If we believe, we belong. of equipment, looking for ectoplasm! many people would you need to have However, that is a debate for an- Well, in fact, in all honesty, I have at a party to have a 50:50 chance other time. Today, I am introducing done that, but this is more the realm that two of them share the same Anomalistic Psychology to you, of parapsychology which tends to birthday? The answer is in fact 23. which I like to call the science of have a sympathetic view of claims of Research has shown that generally self-deception. the paranormal. Anomalistic Psy- people are inappropriately surprised chology, however, adopts a far more by coincidences such as those The science of self-deception skeptical approach. Anomalistic illustrated by this ‘Birthday Prob- There are three main areas of Psychology attempts to explain lem’. research within this field that I belief in the paranormal and reports Most of us are also susceptible to intend to pursue here at UTAS. of ostensibly paranormal experi- the so called ‘Barnum Effect’. This Firstly, I will be continuing to ences, in terms of psychological and refers to the tendency for people to explore the suggestion that believers in some cases, physiological factors. accept vague and general state- and non-believers process informa- First of all, it may be of use to see ments, which could be true of tion differently. A considerable just how common belief in the anyone, as being unique descriptions amount of research indicates that paranormal is. Let me give you some of their own personalities. Similarly, there may be differences in terms of statistics from America and the UK. we are generally unfamiliar with the cognitive abilities such as reasoning. For example, one in every four powerful effects of a technique The research to date shows a mixed Americans believe in ghosts, one of known as ‘Cold Reading’. Cold but intriguing picture and I will every four believe they have had a reading is a highly successful introduce some examples of what telepathic experience, one in ten manipulative technique that can be are known as cognitive biases to you believe they have seen a ghost, one used to convince complete strangers today. in seven believe they have seen a that you know all about them. In Secondly, my work is concerned UFO and more than half believe in particular it is used by TV psychics with another aspect of cognition; the Devil. A similar picture emerges to demonstrate the alleged ability to memory. Generally speaking, we in the UK. An opinion poll in the talk to the dead. At this point I have a poor understanding of how Daily Mail (2/2/98) showed that 64% should say that I very much take a memory works. It does not work, as of respondents believed that certain hard line on psychics for which I many believe, like a video-camera individuals have powers that cannot make no apology. I believe they fall that records our memories and be explained by science, 52% be- into two categories. On the one hand enables us to replay those memories lieved in life after death, 41% you have the deliberate con-artists over and again with perfect clarity, believed in communication with the who know perfectly well they are detail and accuracy. Memory does dead, 25% believed in reincarnation using ‘tricks’ to exploit and defraud, not work this way. Memory is in fact and 49% believed in ghosts. I do not and on the other hand you have an active and fluid process. We are know, as yet, the levels of belief here those who genuinely believe they constantly reconstructing our in Australia, but I suspect the have ‘the gift’. Criminals, or the memories. Memory is additionally, figures would be similar. So we have deluded — either way, they should susceptible to all kinds of social and considerable numbers of the general all be locked up. environmental factors. One of those public believing in phenomena for A second strand of research is the factors is belief. which there is little or scant convinc- role of memory biases. Eyewitness My doctoral thesis was concerned ing evidence. We have two possible accounts of ostensibly paranormal with certain types of memory biases scenarios. Either paranormal forces events such as those that occur at

Page 18 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 séances, are often very inaccurate believers showed a strong tendency abductions may well be false memo- (Wiseman, Greening, & Smith, 2003) to misremember this part of the ries. There may also be a physiologi- with believers tending to rate such reading. cal explanation for such experiences. events as being more paranormal The disorder known as sleep paraly- than non-believers and additionally, False memories sis includes symptoms such as: an are often less accurate in remember- There has been a considerable inability to move, a sense of pres- ing important details. This idea was amount of research looking at the ence, often accompanied by auditory explored further in a recent study of phenomena of false memories. These and visual hallucinations, difficulty memory for psychic readings in are not merely distorted memories, breathing and a feeling of intense which we demonstrated that believ- as in the case above, but are in fact fear. All of which bear a striking ers in the paranormal are more memories of events that never resemblance to the typical report of likely to misremember a psychic occurred. It is surprisingly easy to an alien abduction experience! reading in such a way that they implant false memories using Finally, evidence from cognitive recall the information provided by various techniques. One such psychology has shown that our the psychic as being more specific paradigm, known as ‘Crashing interactions with the world around than it actually is (Wilson & French, Memories,’ has been shown to us are largely based upon our in press). successfully create false memories of knowledge, expectations and beliefs. Participants watched a short having seen non-existent film This is commonly known as top- video of an alleged psychic giving a footage of a dramatic news event (eg, down processing. A striking example reading to a client, followed by film Wilson & French, 2006). Interest- can be seen in how we often perceive of a post-reading interview with the ingly, Wilson and French (2006) also something meaningful in a purely client, in which she comments upon showed that those who reported random and obscure stimulus such the accuracy of the reading. In fact, seeing the non-existent footage were as seeing the face of Jesus in a half both the reading and the post- also more likely to believe in the eaten tortilla, and in the alleged reading interview were entirely paranormal and to report paranor- Satanic messages recorded back- scripted. Two different versions of mal experiences. wards in some rock music. the video were prepared. Both It is possible therefore that the versions showed identical readings phenomena of false memories may Acknowledgement and almost identical post-reading go some way to explain why some I would like to thank my PhD interviews with the sitter, apart individuals claim to have been supervisor, Professor Chris French from one crucial statement. In one abducted by aliens. Either, for (Anomalistic Psychology Research version of the interview the sitter example, a highly evolved group of Unit, Goldsmiths, University of correctly asserts that the psychic intergalactic perverts are traversing London), for permission to use “mentioned the name Sheila, and the galaxy, abducting (mostly) demonstrations from his lectures in that is my mother’s name”. In the hapless Americans, performing my presentation. Further details of other version, she incorrectly asserts ghastly invasive medical procedures the work of the APRU can be found that the psychic “said my mother’s on them, intent on a hybrid breeding at: name was Sheila”. We found that programme — or, memories of alien www.goldsmiths.ac.uk/apru.

... Climate change from p 16 ing. This is because slabs of model the representation of the physics. tremes would not be potential wells, code are often exchanged between Perhaps one might be able to do but simply the points at which the groups so as to avoid writing the something about that particular total feedback gain became less than stuff from scratch, together with a problem, but the politics of the 1.0 — as for instance when cloud general bureaucratic tendency to situation suggests that it is not cover reached 0 or 1 and could no abhor what seems to be duplication likely to happen any time soon. longer contribute to the feedback of effort. The net result will surely As a final random thought, it is at gain. After all, the climate has be a natural decrease in the spread least conceivable that the total always been flipping in and out of of total feedback over the various feedback gain of the Earth-atmos- ice-ages! More to the present point, remaining models, and a consequent phere system is actually very close and were such a situation to exist, it joy at the apparent tightening of the to 1.0. In such a circumstance one wouldn’t matter very much whether range of forecast temperature rise — could imagine the climate skating or not humans added more carbon a tightening that may have nothing from one extreme of temperature to dioxide to his atmosphere. at all to do with an improvement in another and back again. The ex-

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 19 Feature Religion Remains a Problem

A philosophical approach to an Secularism is suddenly hip, at least in and termination of universe and life. intellectual problem the publishing world. We have been here before. There Jamie Doward. The Observer, October have been past episodes when 29, 2006.1 skeptics and apologists have both made a name for themselves (eg, …It [William James’ psychology of re- H.L.Mencken, Bertrand Russell, ligion] is in fact a very common way of Carl Sagan, as the skeptics; thinking about religion, and leads G.K.Chesterton, C.S.Lewis, Fred many to think that all discussion of re- Hoyle, as the apologists) but the ligious ideas is misguided and that an actual debates are often forgotten as exaggerated interest in concepts is a time goes by. This time the debate Western bias… has been re-ignited by the latest Religious concepts, as I said, invariably books by , Sam recruit the resources of mental systems Harris and Christopher Hitchens,4 that would be there, religion or not. and the critical reviews5 that have Pascal Boyer. Religion Explained. 2001.2 inevitably followed. Unfortunately the debate is high on polemics from We should be thanking these anti- both sides, and there is an uncom- theists for picking a fight that we fortable feeling when different should have started long ago. The only perspectives are conflated in the question now is, as Christians, will we argument. We cannot assume that have the courage to oppose our common any two skeptics deliver the same foe — what Barth rightly termed “reli- message or what they deliver is all gion as unbelief” — or will we retreat that is to be said on behalf of skepti- to the safe-ground of religious obsoles- cism. The same could be said about cence? apologists in relation to the defense Scott Stephen. Eureka Street, May 18, of belief. 3 2007. I have certain sympathy with Dawkins, Harris, and Hitchens, and eligion is under attack. The other writers joining in the fray,6 Rcitadels of faith are also being who are marking out an anti- defended rigorously. It is not surpris- religious stance for themselves. ing that a major worldwide debate Religion is a problem, but the on religion has emerged. We live in difficulty is that the problem is often Neville Buch has a PhD from the University of an era that has seen the media seen as the opposition to . Queensland in the field of Australian religious focused on the rise of Islam within “Atheism is true, so religion is a history. He works as the Research Officer for Western democracies, the Islamic- problem”, so goes the logic employed. the Vice-Chancellor at the University of inspired terrorism, and diverse Whether or not the critics are Melbourne while re-tooling himself with further Christian political opinions passion- justified in their arguments for formal studies in philosophy at Melbourne. ately held around beliefs on creation atheism is beside the point. The

Page 20 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 frustrating outcome is that review- ourselves on the basis that we have revelationary event establishes its own ers have only to find fault in the what has been ascribed to in the meaning. This revelationary event is one atheistic argument, and a view past. If we are unconvinced of the that breaks into the modern world, from emerges that religion is not a need to retain a traditional commit- outside as it were, through various problem.7 It is frustrating because it ment to religion we are left ponder- means depending on the tradition — an is based on a significant misalign- ing if religion has any new meaning icon, a ritual, a scriptural reading, an ment. Atheism is lined up against to offer. overwhelming emotion, an unusual particular belief systems that are A critical response has been to say mental experience, etc. I will call this a generally religious, but is not lined that finding what religion means in ‘conservative solution’ (desire to con- up sufficiently against religion as a the modern world is itself the problem serve the revelational input) and it coherent concept. Argument on because it sets up an unnecessary crosses over different theological group- whether belief in a God or some difficulty, one only supported by ings within Christianity. It also has some other supernatural entity leads to questionable modern presuppositions.8 expression in Judaism and Islam. problematic behaviour or state of The meaning of the modern world is 3. Religion has meaning in the modern affairs does not get to the issue of what ought to be challenged, and not world since the only meaning that is re- what is fundamentally problematic the concept of religion. This is a quired is the act of faith.11 This is a long for religion. There is a deeper postmodern argument that I will tradition in Christianity through conceptual problem, one which is discuss later, but we need to begin Tertullian, Pascal, and Kierkegaard, understood in a broader secular and with the perspective of the modern which concludes that the meaning of skeptical stance. It is a stance not thinker. How can a modern thinker faith for the believer is the faith act, and obligated to establish any particular make sense of religion as a relevant this is not something where we can or- metaphysical position, although its concept? dinarily reason. Apologists have assumptions works within a natural- strengthened this argument through istic schema, that is, it retains a A relevant concept? Wittgenstein’s view of religion as its own skeptical disposition toward the Religious apologists have devised a language game, and his belief that supernatural. In other words, one number of solutions to this quandary. meaning is arrived at through the prac- may speculate as much as one wants None, though, work as an argument tice of the game. It has similarities to on the existence or non-existence of that I find convincing. There are four the conservative solution, but in the con- supernatural entities but such broad arguments, and I shall de- servative solution one can still explain speculation has no explanatory scribe them from the weakest to the meaning through testimony of the rev- power in finding meaning in the strongest contender: elation. In what I call here the ‘radical modern world. 1. Religion has meaning in the modern solution’ one cannot explain what reli- world since it can be translated in mod- gion means; it is merely shown. The problem of religion 9 ern terms. What has been referred to 4. Religion has meaning in the modern What I call ‘the problem of religion’ as ‘liberal religion’ has had a declining world since as modern thinkers we are is finding what religion means in the influence in demographic terms. It is the cognitively programmed to find mean- modern world. It is a problem view that religion remains meaningful ing in religion.12 There is an explanation because when we call something if we retain traditional rituals, while for religious behaviour in cognitive sci- religious we appear to merely evoke holding that such practices and the ence. There are also a few apologists who a commitment to a diverse set of words that are used refer to our contem- are prepared to defend a religious ideas anchored into ancient con- porary understanding of ontological or naturalism, a view that religion can still cepts. When those ancient concepts ethical matters. For example, we ‘pray have meaning in the modern world if we have been replaced by more complex to God’ but we really are meditating on accept religious ideas or references as a and refined domains of knowledge the evolution and beauty of creation, or (eg, deities, kingdoms, souls, sin, part of natural phenomena. It has simi- we speak and perform ‘baptism’ but we sacrifice, etc, replaced by more larities to the ‘liberal solution’ but the are referring to inspiration and care that diverse formulations in the natural liberal apologist never wants to utterly our community provides to one of its sciences, democracies, psychology, reduce religious allusions to non-reli- members. The argument has only ever sociology, etc) we are required to gious descriptions; something vague and been really strong in Christian institu- explain religion more than just as mysterious must remain above secular tions and Post-Christian pluralistic in- tradition. Certainly religion has references. The ‘naturalist solution’, as stitutes, and Judaism. For the sake of meaning as a wide collection of I will call this argument, is a stronger brevity, I will use the term ‘liberal solu- traditions. However, a modern stance because it meets the skeptic most tion’ to indicate this position. thinker is forced intellectually to of the way, but insists that in being ex- weigh a traditional commitment up 2. Religion has meaning in the modern plained in non-religious descriptions of against other commitments, and it world since its truth has been revealed brain function or physics there is still seems unsatisfactory to accept the in the open hearts of the believer.10 The an affirmative nontraditional meaning claim that we ought to commit point is the devotion that arises from a for the modern thinker.

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 21 Religion Remains a Problem

General observations religious and those that are not, tence itself. The liberal apologist, based on those ideas. In speaking of however, believes that there is Two general observations need to be acts of faith, or cognitive processes something in the traditional lan- remarked upon before exploring why that give rise to kinds of sentiments guage and rituals that evoke a none of these solutions satisfies the and human responses, we are still pleasant feeling of wonder or mys- skeptic. First, it is painfully obvious speaking about ideas: what we have tery, and this is something that that the apologetic solutions are in how we mentally conceive the ought to be valued. The real mys- largely represented in Christian world around us at the higher level tery, though, is why the apologist institutions and Post-Christian of abstraction. While it is true that assumes that such elation or profun- pluralistic institutes. This is a bias any conception is only a product of dity is unique to the language and in western literature where the habit and cognition, the concept we rituals that we identify as religious. conception of ‘religion’ as a set of call ‘religion’ can only be recognised There are many examples of deep ideas goes back to the Latin, religio, as ‘religion’ in the communication of sentiment and great insight that as ‘to bind or to connect’. Judaism the idea. We cannot point to social happen as part of secular settings: and Islam shares with Christianity habits or inference systems in the family celebrations, civic ceremo- in this formulation, but other brain and say here is ‘religion’ nies, music concerts, lectures, and ‘religions’ may not adopt that type of without having the sense of the idea just everyday events completely categorisation. Indeed it is debatable at the very start. outside any religious references. whether any non-westernised Nothing is added in tying that cultural belief systems should be An intellectual problem emotion or state of being to the understood from this perspective.13 identification of religion. That is, however, a debate that The problem of religion for the The naturalist solution is pre- adherents ought to first sort out, and skeptic, therefore, remains an pared to go much further. It will whether skeptics might or might not intellectual one. The ideas that each substitute religion almost com- find the concept of a cultural belief apologetic solution introduces to pletely for a scientific worldview, system meaningful for the modern replace the ancient concepts is not and is not concerned if traditional world is a quite different question. sufficient to carry the notion ‘reli- language and rituals fall by the way. For the moment we are left to gion’ meaningfully in a world where However, it then turns around and consider four solutions as we have these concepts have lost their ex- suggests we identify some natural found them. planatory power. To take the liberal processes as ‘religion’, not merely as Secondly, defining religion as a and naturalist solutions first. Both the fact that we categorise in this set of ideas is controversial. Other share a strategy of substitution. In way as a matter of common sense, ways of defining or representing the case of the liberal solution we but that the processes are religious religion have been suggested. To talk retain the traditional language and — they evoke wonder or mystery in of ‘religion’ could be: rituals but substitute the original intention in the language and rituals a special way. It is a very tempting Kinds of social rituals;14 • for a more contemporary set of proposition. It is not hard to feel • Odd assortment of practices that beliefs. The difficulty for the skeptic elated or see the puzzlement when resemble each other;15 is that in such a case it involves a delving into the science of cosmos complex bit of theatrics and role and creation, and of the mind-brain. • Behaviours that arise from infer- playing where there appears to be But do we really need the concept of ence systems in the evolution of the hu- little motivation to do so. We can religion as a live option in such a man brain.16 acknowledge that we do participate case? I think not. There is also the suggestion that in rituals that we enjoy and they are It is true that we can explain we abandon all attempts at defini- important for various reasons, but religion as a coming together of tions, and assume that ‘religion’ has the point is that we each have a different cognitive inference sys- been intuitively understood. None of choice about which rituals to partake tems, proceeding in an evolutionary these counter-definitions or anti- in, and indeed, whether to abandon pathway, to induce the survival of conceptual suggestions need dismiss some rituals altogether. I can refuse particular social habit we call perceiving the common sense view to worship anymore. ‘religion’, but this is very different to that religion is a specific set of ideas. The same thing can be said about saying that we are cognitively When we think about religion we do a language. I can refuse to speak of programmed to find meaning in look for rituals, practices, and ‘sin’ and ‘holiness’ in the same way religion. If that were the case, why is behaviours, and in asking questions as I once had. Apart from tradition, it possible for many modern thinkers about them we find beliefs — struc- there doesn’t appear to be sufficient to be passionately irreligious? There tured ideas — that make sense of motivation to continue in what is a are also those of us as former believ- what is happening. And importantly, very challenging practice — acting ers who have lost the meaning we we can categorise between rituals, out a part where the intention is once had in our previous religious practices, and behaviours that are completely different from the pre- outlook. The cognitive processes that

Page 22 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 explain religious behaviour are not a option because of the transformation back door of de-conversion. That matter of programming us to find that has occurred from these events, quite natural event, and its signifi- the concept of religion meaningful in and the knowledge of this transfor- cance, is unfortunately not discussed the modern world. There are evolu- mation is understood as a ‘revela- very often in the public domain. tionary mechanisms that become tion’. There is no doubt that Even among some academics there redundant and the rise of ‘non-belief’ life-changing experiences are mean- is an awful assumption that a as an increasingly live option in the ingful. The difficulty is that the person’s life-changing commitment modern world is perhaps a case of skeptic denies that they are religious will remain stable over a lifetime. If social evolution where the intellec- as a transcendental event; that is, the truth of the revelation is tied to tual meaning of religion struggles to we cannot assume that something the devotion of the believer, it is very survive. has occurred that is inexplicable and much a disputable ‘truth’ when Pascal Boyer, as one who has unrelated to natural time-space former believers no longer hold such recently presented a cognitivist view order. The apologist defends this knowledge. The former believer has in explaining religion, concluded: position by declaring that the event to conclude that it was never the I have explained religion in terms of must be understood in this way knowledge it was assumed to be. systems that are in all human minds because its truth was revealed in the and do all sorts of precious and inter- mind of the believer during that The radical solution esting work, but were not really de- event. It is as if a life-changing The radical solution closes the gap signed to produce religious concepts of even more. The meaning for religion behaviours. There is no religious in- resides, in this case, in the act of stinct, no specific inclination in the faith. The idea here is that there is mind, no particular disposition for The problem of no basis for rational scrutiny. The these concepts, no special religion cen- radical apologist accepts there is no tre in the brain, and religious people explanatory power for religion, but are not different from non-religious religion is argues instead that meaning does ones in essential cognitive functions. not require explanation; it only Even faith and belief seem to be simple requires a common practice. by-products of the way concepts and finding what Whereas in the conservative solution inferences are doing their work for re- revelation was inexplicable and ligion in much the same way as for therefore didn’t stop the power of other domains.17 religion means secular rational accounts being applied, in this case the power of A minimisation strategy rational explanations are muted in a When there is no cognitive differ- in the celebration of the value of the ence between the apologist and the absurd, the non-rational, or “The skeptic we are down to a dispute heart has its reasons which reason about perspective, and those compet- modern world knows not”. It certainly has been a ing perspectives are framed in longstanding effective weapon different sets of ideas. against the skeptic. It is true that The conservative and radical experience was accompanied with an not all meaning requires explana- solutions do not act as a substitution undeniable knowledge of its source tion, and there are many absurd or strategy. Instead they share a and ‘nature’, and this knowledge is non-rational goals, and other mat- minimisation strategy. The con- inexpressible to the ‘outside world’. ters of almost pure value, that we servative solution minimises the If that is not deemed as unten- cherish and make life worth living. requirement for explanatory power able, then there are two further However, it is impossible to see how as an attempt to allow a narrower problems. First, such ‘knowledge’ an act of faith alone can demon- but more decisive meaning for stands impotently against secular strate the type of meaning that is religion. It does this by distinguish- explanations of life-changing experi- sufficient to live in the modern ing two usages of the term ‘religion’. ences. Since revelation stands above world. Adherents in religion don’t The first is a reference to human ordinary state of affairs we can get act on faith in that manner. Believ- artifacts and its meaning is tradi- on with the business of providing a ers have a self-understanding about tional. The second usage is a refer- physiological and psychological their faith to allow it to operate. ence to transcendental events that account of these described events. This self-understanding is necessar- breaks through into the ordinary Secondly, the knowledge or ‘insight’ ily linked to the object of their faith historical environment, and also is not always undeniable. Adherents and also to their place in the world. through the ‘open hearts’ of believ- in salvation-orientated religions In which case, the act of faith does ers. The argument here is that the tend to focus on the conversation not have any meaning without this meaning of religion remains a live process, but too easily miss the wide wider context.

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 23 Religion Remains a Problem

Apologists often attempt to get James his criteria for a genuine adequately explore an extremely around this by going back to William choice for religion, there is a horrible wide-ranging debate; however, there James’ notion of the ‘Will to Believe’: assumption lurking in the argument are a few observations that demon- that is, a person does not choose that a person could not re-visit the strate that this is not going to prove their beliefs but we are compelled to ‘will to believe’ and arrive at the to be a convincing solution.22 have them in genuine choices.18 unwillingness to continue in such First, it is difficult to see that These are choices that are live, beliefs they originally inherited.19 finding meaning for religion in a forced, and momentous. It has long The assumption is plainly false, and postmodern world will not end up in stood as a fairly convincing argu- it is a good indication that meaning the same kinds of solutions that we ment. After all, beliefs about whose cannot be contained merely in the have just reviewed. If religion is not objects that we say we love or action alone. Does the act of disbelief to be defined by secular terms in the passionately desire, do have this itself contain sufficient meaning, postmodern world, how is it to be non-rational basis — in the end, we such that it indicates a secular belief defined? All suggestions from believe it because we just want it to that was non-rationally compelled? postmodern theologians keep lead- be so. The apologist is unlikely to agree. ing us back to the same answers — Of course, there is a sense where rituals, act of faith, revelation, Three difficulties there is meaning for religion in the natural processes, etc.23 There is no There are, however, three difficulties modern world. Many apologists are reason to assume that postmodern here. First, the apologist ends up modern thinkers and do find mean- thinking can legitimatise these having to defend a concept of reli- ing from their religious commitment. solutions. Neither liberal conversa- gion which is a form of subjectivism. However, as I have endeavoured to tion, the relativity of our situation, In this case the individual believer demonstrate in this essay the nor the meaninglessness of space has no way of knowing whether his meaning is illusory when the mod- and time, does anything to convince or her beliefs are something called ern world demands a secular de- that religion is a necessary category. ‘religion’. To categorise beliefs in this scription in its references. We do Secondly the modern idea of way we would need some way of continue to talk of ‘spirituality’ in a secularity will not unravel without being able to compare beliefs, and meaningful way but religious serious dysfunction in the comfort- subjectivism has no means for doing references are quite unnecessary to able lifestyle that we value. In such a task. give us understanding in the use of particular we value freedom from Secondly, it is simply not true that this concept. Apologists are modern religion in most aspects of life. Most the concept of religion acts as a thinkers only by “being in the world, apologists in modern society have to matter of genuine choice according but not of it”. For the skeptic, it is admit that they also enjoy this to James’ criteria. While religion not so much the inconsistency that is freedom enormously. I remember as evokes emotional appeal it is not the the problem, but that there is no a deeply devout believer the relief same as finding oneself out at the substantive motivation to lead such after coming out of ‘worship’ and nightclub because you are passion- a double life when the only meaning being able to converse with my ate about the entertainment. Reli- for it is made out of the illusion of fellow adherents on ordinary and gion does make serious claims on the faith. everyday matters. This is not an believer that require their intellec- unusual experience and it leads to tual consent. Certainly religion An intellectual illusion? the third observation. makes the decision for these claims There remains one further solution As much as adherents do relax, in a forced and momentous fashion. for the apologist: demonstrate that religion is deadly serious. The They are often about matters of life modernity is an intellectual illusion, tension between the modern idea of and death and they do require and pin one’s hopes on finding secularity and religion would disap- obedience and responsiveness. another world, a postmodern one. It pear if what we define as religion However, there seems no reason why is not easy to unpack the cognisance was something less than the serious in this state of affairs that a choice behind this postmodern stance.20 It claims that religion makes on could not be made to be indifferent stands counter-intuitive to the everybody. From within the formal from the challenge presented. I modern mind but there are reason- religious viewpoint, it is impossible simply don’t care about these claims. able propositions in the disciplines of to say that religious beliefs are I have better things to turn my intellectual history, epistemology, substantively voluntary24 and attention to, and so that ends the and the philosophy of science that religious commitment has no more matter for the agnostic. The apolo- show the contingent nature of the value than the preference to take up gist in radical solution has no case to modern intellectual framework.21 one hobby over another or none. offer against indifference since the The link between self-imposed limits There are postmodern religionists question of evidence has been ruled in modern thought and the concep- who do push their view of religion in out of their own court. tual capacity for religion to reinstate this direction, but if this is the case Thirdly, even if we were to grant itself requires another essay to religion has been transformed from

Page 24 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 a categorical imperative to light- heaven’. New Scientist . October 7, 2006. Schleiermacher (1768–1834). Among its weight entertainment. In a pp 50-51. noted popularisers have been Harry postmodern world where there are Charles Moore. ‘A voice crying in the Emerson Fosdick (1878–1969) in the only amusing conversations or self- wilderness’. Spectator. October 7, 2006. 1920s, William Sloane Coffin (1924 – 2006) and John A.T. Robinson (1919– expressions we might as well find Terry Eagleton. ‘Lunging, flailing, 1983) in the 1960s, and since the 1980s, something more relaxing to do than mispunching’. London Review of Books. John Shelby Spong (1931-). Among the October 19, 2006. pp. 32-34. to ‘worship’, ‘pray’, or argue more serious thinkers are Rudolf ‘apologetics’. Thomas Nagel. ‘The fear of religion’. The Bultmann (1884–1976), and Paul Tillich The terrain that this essay has New Republic. October 23, 2006. pp. 25-30. (1886–1965). Post-Christian advocators traversed goes much deeper than the Jim Holt. ‘Beyond Belief’. The New York include William Ellery Channing (1780– types of criticisms that Richard Times Book Review. October 22, 2006. p. 1. 1842), Albert Schweitzer (1875 – 1965), Dawkins, Sam Harris and Marilynne Robinson. ‘Hysterical and James Luther Adams (1901–1994). Christopher Hitchens are able to scientism: the ecstasy of Richard 10. The concept of revelation plays an make. It is unfortunate that ‘paper- Dawkins’. Harper’s Magazine. Nov 2006. important role in all Christian tradi- back’ atheism attracts so much p. 83. tions, but neo-orthodox theologians such publicity when basic propositions H. Allan Orr. ‘A Mission to Convert’. as Karl Barth (1886-1968) and Emil about the positive nature of secular- New York Review of Books. Volume 54, Brunner (1899-1966) did the most to ity need to be advanced. There are Number 1, January 11, 2007. define ‘true’ religion in terms of the doctrine of revelation. fortunately philosophical works from Among the most scathing reviews of the the atheistic stance that can contrib- Harris book are: 11. Quintus Septimius Florens ute to such an enterprise, in the way Tertullianus, anglicised as Tertullian, Jason Byassee. ‘Letter to a Christian (ca. 155–230) was of the view that that Dawkins’, Harris’ and Hitchens’ Nation’. The Christian Century. Decem- 25 religion and philosophy were incompat- polemics can not. However, as I ber 12, 2006. pp. 43-47. hope that I have demonstrated, a ible, and faith that was authoritative Hal Johnson. ‘The bland inquisitor’. New and true was an absurdity to rational much better approach is a broader Criterion. December 2006. pp 81-84. skepticism about the conceptual understanding. Blaise Pascal (1623– Stephanie Merritt. ‘Better God-fearing 1662) is known for Pascal’s Wager: it is a capacity of religion in the modern than sneering’. The Observer. Sunday better “bet” to believe that God exists world, the only world that will get us May 6, 2007 than not to believe, because the expected where we are going (as the means by value of believing is always greater than which we generally live in ‘devel- Eureka Street has provided a scathing review of the Hitchens book in Scott the expected value of not believing, and oped’ societies), and this avoids Stephens (Ref 3). he also declared “The heart has its getting caught up in a narrower reasons which reason knows not”. Søren 6. Michel Onfray. The Atheist Manifesto: Atheism-Theism debate. Aabye Kierkegaard (1813 –1855) The Case against Christianity, Judasim developed a “religionless” view of faith. and Isalm. Translated by Jeremy Footnotes Religious commitment is a leap of faith, Leggatt. Melbourne University Press, in his view, one that had no intellectual 2007; Daniel C. Dennett. Breaking the content. Ludwig Josef Johann 1. Jamie Doward. ‘Atheists top book Spell: Religion as a Natural Phenom- Wittgenstein’s (1889–1951) view of logic charts by deconstructing God.’ The enon. New York, Viking, 2006. Observer, October 29, 2006. and language has given many religious 7. I was spurred on to write this essay apologists a way of avoiding rational 2. Pascal Boyer. Religion Explained: The by such a review — Simon Caterson. scrutiny by seeing methods of critical Human Instincts that Fashion Gods, ‘Hell to pay when man bites God’. The investigations as the wrong rules for Spirits and Ancestors. London, Vintage Australian Literary Review. May 2 2007. understanding religion. Religion, Books, 2001, p. 354, 369. pp. 4-5. according to Wittgenstein, could only be 3. Scott Stephens. ‘Why militant anti- 8. Radical Orthodoxy attempts to revive understood from the application of its theism is a God-send’. Eureka Street. 18 patristic, medieval and renaissance own rules, which were kept together by May 2007. Christian doctrinal reasoning for religion as a form of life. 4. Richard Dawkins. The God Delusion contemporary philosophical theology. 12. More broadly a tradition of religious London, Bantam Press, 2006; Sam John Milbank argues that an Augustin- naturalism goes back to Baruch de Harris. Letters to a Christian Nation: A ian City of God can be created against Spinoza (1632 –1677). More recent Challenge to Faith. New York, Knopf, secular reason and the ‘ontology of developments have come from Pierre 2006. Christopher Hitchens. God is Not violence’ that he sees as modernity. John Teilhard de Chardin (1881 –1955), Great: How Religion Poisons Everything. Milbank, Catherine Pickstock, and Alfred North Whitehead (1861-1947), Allen & Unwin, 2007. Graham Ward. (Editors). Radical and Henry Nelson Wieman (1884-1975). 5. Among the most scathing reviews of Orthodoxy: A New Theology. London, From Whitehead developed process the Dawkins book are: Routledge, 1999; John Milbank. Theol- theology/philosophy with advocators ogy and Social Theory: Beyond Secular Martin E Marty. ‘Sneers’. The Christian such as Charles Hartshorne (1897 – Reason . Oxford, Blackwell, 1993. Century. November 14, 2006. p. 55. 2000), John B. Cobb, Jr. (1925-), and 9. Theological liberalism has a long David Ray Griffin (1939-). These Mary Midgley. ‘Imagine there’s no history back to Friedrich Daniel Ernst thinkers in religious naturalism are not

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 25 Religion Remains a Problem

particularly concerned with cognitive in Popular Philosophy. New York, 22. A critical essay on Radical Orthodoxy science, but their view of religion would Longmans, Green, and Co., 1911, c1897. from a secular skeptical stance is be likely to follow the correlation 19. Too many commentators on religion needed, but ‘RO’, as it sometimes between the concept of religion and discuss the subject as if everybody is nicknamed, has already faced substan- cognitive processes. A believer who does born or ‘re-born’ a believer or nonbe- tive criticism within the theological write more specifically on the cognitive liever and will always remain in that community. Paul Janz has produced a 37 origins of the concept is Justin Barrett, condition. However, faith commitments page attack in Paul D. Janz. ‘Radical author of Why Would Anyone Believe in Orthodoxy and the New Culture of God? Altmira Press, 2004. Strangely, do change over a lifetime. Many in modern societies do lose their religious Obsurantism’. Modern Theology. Vol. 20, atheist David Sloan Wilson also provides No. 3. July 2004, pp. 363-405. an affirmative concept of religion along faith. A few do return to their former faith, but the demographic trend is those Christopher Insole sees real dangers in these lines in Darwin’s cathedral : RO’s attack on political liberalism in evolution, religion, and the nature of who subscribe to ‘no religion’ have increased. See Steve Bruce. God is Christopher J. Insole. ‘Against Radical society. Chicago, University of Chicago Orthodoxy: The Dangers of Overcoming Press, 2002. Dead: Secularization in the West. Blackwell, 2002. Political Liberalism’. Modern Theology. 13. An argument that non-western Vol. 20, No. 2. April 2004, pp. 213-241. cultural belief systems ought not to be 20. The Radical Orthodoxy movement, Even Douglas Hedley, who expresses seen in the category of religion is mentioned in endnote 8, is the primary admiration for Milbank’s project, presented by Timothy Fitzgerald in The example of this postmodern response. believes that its hostility towards Ideology of Religious Studies. New York, There are other anti-modern or post- ‘secular reason’ leads to Gnosticism and Oxford University Press, 2000. modern responses. Process theologians, not orthodoxy. Douglas Hedley. ‘Should 14. The academic tradition of Émile John B. Cobb and David Ray Griffin Divinity Overcome Metaphysics? Durkheim, outlined in his classic, (mentioned in endnote 12 as an exam- Reflections on John Milbank’s Theology Elementary Forms of the Religious Life. ple of naturalist apologetics) have beyond Secular Reason and Confessions A study in religious sociology. Translated promoted what they call ‘Constructive of a Cambridge Platonist’. The Journal from the French by Joseph Ward Swain. Postmodern-ism’ (see www.religion- of Religion. Vol. 80, No. 2. April 2000, pp. London, G. Allen & Unwin. 1915. online.org/showarticle.asp?title=2220 ). 271-298. It is interesting that Radical This is a more presumptive stance in 15. The application of Wittgenstein’s Orthodoxy has been largely ignored family resemblance theory. There are that it takes at face-value Whitehead’s outside of theological circles, which may many examples of Wittgensteinian belief that the modern period was over, say something about the sustaining interpreters of religion, including: whereas Radical Orthodoxy takes a power of secularity. much stronger anti-modern position. D.Z. Phillips. ‘On reading Wittgenstein 23. This is quite evident in the role that on religion’ in Religion and 21. The works of Thomas Samuel Kuhn the Eucharist plays for Radical Ortho- Wittgenstein’s legacy, edited by D.Z. (1922 –1996) and Richard McKay Rorty doxy, and that natural processes plays Phillips and Mario Von der Ruhr. (1931–2007) are important in demon- for Cobb and Griffin’s Constructive Aldershot, Ashgate, 2005. strating the contingent factors in the Postmodernism. Graham Ward. Cities of modern viewpoint. This does not Norman Malcolm. Wittgenstein: a God. London, Routledge, 2000. p. 70; religious point of view? Edited with a necessarily mean that Rorty’s linguistic John Milbank and Catherine Pickstock. response by Peter Winch. Ithaca, Cornell conclusions and the radical incommen- Truth in Aquinas. London, Routledge, University Press, 1994. surability thesis of some Kuhn’s 2000. p. 94; David Ray Griffin. Religion interpreters ought to be accepted at Charles L. Creegan. Wittgenstein and and Scientific Naturalism: Overcoming face-value. Recently Rorty discussed Kierkegaard: religion, individuality, and the Conflicts. State University of New the future of religion within a philosophical method. New York : York Press, 2000. postmodern paradigm with Gianni Routledge, 1989. Vattimo, a postmodern apologist. 24. What I mean by ‘substantively 16. This is advocated by ‘byproduct Apparently, “Vattimo’s hermeneutics voluntary’ is not that religionists do not theorists’ such as Pascal Boyer in and Rorty’s pragmatism reframe our recognise the free-will of believers in Religion Explained: The Human vision of the Christian message that choosing to believe, but that they reject Instincts that Fashion Gods, Spirits and love is the only law”, according to a that the application and force of reli- Ancestors. London, Vintage Books, 2001. review. It is almost impossible to gious claims are only there for those who An excellent background to naturalist imagine that a redefinition of religion volunteer belief, and nowhere else. In explanations of religion — whether from in this way could be a serious interpre- other words everybody is morally and secular or religious adherents — see tation of actual practical living. Thomas ontologically able to dismiss these Robin Marantz Henig. Darwin’s God. S. Kuhn. The Structure of Scientific claims. The concept of religion would be The New York Times. March 4, 2007. Revolutions. University of Chicago impotent if that was the case. 17. Pascal Boyer. Religion Explained: Press, 1962; Philosophy and the Mirror 25. An example of a sustaining philo- The Human Instincts that Fashion Gods, of Nature. Princeton University Press, sophical atheism is Michael Martin. Spirits and Ancestors. London, Vintage 1979; Richard Rorty and Gianni Atheism, Morality, and Meaning. Books, 2001, p. 378. Vattimo. The Future of Religion. edited Amherst, Prometheus Books, 2002. 18. William James. ‘The Will to Believe’ by Santiago Zabala. New York, Colum- in The Will to Believe: and Other Essays bia University Press, 2005.

Page 26 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Report A Ship of Skeptics

Cruising with The Amazing t was just something I could not Reed Esau, took me on a tour of the Adventure 2 Iget out of my head. The chance to local area that included a drive up spend a week with and Mt Evans. (When I say ‘up’ I’m (The Bad Astronomer) talking about 14300 feet.) At this aboard a luxury cruise liner, travel- altitude even walking takes on a ling up the coast of Alaska. So, I bit new and strange dimension as the the bullet and committed myself to lack of oxygen goes, or doesn’t go, to the cruise months before the depar- your head. But the views are worth ture date of 2 September 2007. every gasp. The adventure got under way in My next pleasant Denver moment mid-August when my wife and I flew came when I met Hal Bidlack from to San Francisco to visit my in-laws, the James Randi Educational after which I jetted off to visit Phil Foundation (JREF). Hal and I hit it Plait and family in Boulder, Colo- off right from the word ‘go’ as we rado. Now, being met at the airport made our way to dine at an ‘English by The Bad Astronomer is quite Pub’ (complete with American something. Sometimes you really do football on the giant flat-screen TV). need to pinch yourself and pinching Hal, Phil and I seem to have just I was as we drove from the airport at about the same sense of humour, Denver to Boulder, passing through although it seems jokes are much some beautiful countryside. funnier when told with an Austral- The few days I spent in Boulder ian accent. were magical, with Phil taking me Before I knew it, Hal and Elaine on a hike, then into town to have my were picking me up at my Denver first Buffalo Burger, rare! I could hotel for the flight to Vancouver to listen to Phil talk about astronomy meet our vessel. We met with Jeff for hours, his knowledge and enthu- Wagg from JREF at Vancouver siasm of the subject are truly inspir- airport, but all was not well. He was ing. (And he loves Minties!) The glued to his mobile phone as he evenings were spend enjoying the paced about the baggage pick up. home cooking of Phil’s mother-in-law “Can he make the flight?” we heard and teaching everyone origami. him ask as he strode past. He? Oh… From Boulder I travelled back to James Randi! Yes, the first drama of Denver to give my presentation the cruise had begun. James Randi ‘Fakes, Frauds & Fools’ to the local was also flying in that day to meet skeptics group, The Denver Skep- the ship but his flights were long tics. By all accounts my talk was and depended on making all the Richard Saunders, a past president of NSW well received. I guess they must connections. What if he misses a Skeptics and origami expert, having performed have liked me, as their founder, flight? A James Randi cruise without mayhem on some public sculpture. Elaine Gilman, together with skeptic James Randi? Unthinkable.

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 27 A Ship of Skeptics

At the dock, waiting friends on the voyage. (I for our ship to sail, I still get a laugh from her met Fraser Cain of when I try to imperson- www.universetoday.com ate Rolf Harris.) and podcast. We did Of the many attrac- not have long to talk, tions the cruise had to but it was nevertheless offer, the one we did not a good chance to meet a take advantage of, were another like-minded fan the acupuncture treat- of science and broad- ments in the health spa. casting. In fact, the talks given By the time I made on the subject clashed my way through cus- with the official skepti- toms (it takes longer for cal events. What a pity. Aussies) and just as I Day two of the cruise was about to set foot on brought for me some- the gangplank, James thing I’ll never forget. Randi made a dramatic The programme said appearance, in his The author with James Randi and Phil Plait that Randi was to give a flowing black cape and presentation followed by Alpine hat complete a panel discussion with with feather. Phew.. all the official celebrity was well and we could speakers. (They being board for our adven- James Randi, Phil Plait, ture. Celebrity Cruise Rebecca Watson, Jeff Lines Infinity Vessel Wagg and Hal Bidlack) with its 12 decks and Since Randi is still up to 2046 passengers, recovering from major is more like a mini heart surgery, it was felt floating city than a that he should give an ship. Rather than bore abbreviated talk after the reader with all it which I was asked to ‘fill has to offer, you can in’ with my presentation find out more by visit- from Denver. ing tinyurl.com/28fzm8. Randi gave an excel- lent talk recounting The cruise many adventures and The first night afloat anecdotes from a life of gave everyone the magic and investigation, opportunity to greet Mr which we all enjoyed Randi personally and Phil Plait being interviewed by Rebecca Watson immensely. Then it was also to meet the other with great pleasure that 92 skeptics along for I gave my talk, this time the adventure. This is with Mr Randi in the when I met Rebecca front row! I was hon- Watson, also known as oured when Randi ‘Skepchick’ congratulated me on my (skepchick.org). Rebecca talk and asked me to is one of a new breed of take part in the celebrity skeptic, young, hip and panel (and another later appealing to a younger in the voyage). Next I generation. She also is was asked to be a table one of the panel in the host for the evening highly successful meals which meant that podcast, The Skeptics’ each night I dined with a Guide To The Universe. new group of skeptics. I Rebecca and I also hit it made sure that each of off and became firm Our cruise ship my table guests left with

Page 28 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 a small origami telling us how Orcas (wew model, folded on the must not call them ‘Killer spot. The real ‘pinch Whales’) are so intelligent, me again I am they actually ‘commit dreaming’ moment premeditated murder’ — came when Mr Randi and I mean of humans! made me a guest of They can also ‘communicate the JREF for the telepathically’. Oh dear. I voyage. I may have think he might have been been on the high watching too many new age seas, but I was also videos. Nevertheless, we on Cloud 9. headed to the top decks and did spot the odd small Sight-seeing in whale here and there. Alaska Sadly the final day of the Over the next few cruise arrived as we our- days, the ship sailed selves arrived back in up the coast of Vancouver. One of the last Alaska, (making Pulling a rabbit from a hat — and all for one dollar things I did was to fold a some very sea-sick) ‘Rabbit in the Hat’ out of an stopping here and I took the opportunity to interview American dollar note for Mr there so we could stretch our sea- him for the TANK podcast. Randi. I promised him I would try to legs and visit ports of call. I was Our stop in the capital Juneau invent an origami flying pig or surprised to see how in Alaska, was another highlight as we went up ‘Pigasus’, the mascot of the JREF for small sea planes are as common as in a cable car to Mt Roberts. Even him and that’s just what I did once buses in any other place. We sat though it was a cold and wet day, the back in Australia. ‘Origami Pigasus’ transfixed as we viewed a line of views overlooking Juneau and our was such a hit that it is now on t- them zooming past our vessel to own vessel were magnificent. Later, shirts, has its own adventures on land and take off again. It’s said that Phil, his wife Marcella, Rebecca and ‘you tube’ and one signed by myself six out of 10 Alaskans fly planes but I jumped into an old bus for a $10 and Mr Randi sold at auction for only four out of 10 have a pilot’s trip to Mendenhall Glacier. Alaska is $300! Will wonders never cease? licence! not short of spectacular scenery! Acknowledgements The sight-seeing highlight was The last leg of the cruise gave us undoubtedly our visit to Hubbard the chance to do some whale spot- I made many new friends on the Glacier as the ship steered to within ting. Rebecca and I attended a talk cruise and I am in regular contact 200 metres of this mighty, incredibly given by the ship’s naturalist about with them thanks to the Internet. I blue, river of ice. It seemed everyone the local whales and what we could hope to see some of them at the next on the ship was on the upper decks expect to see. Somehow he got a James Randi Amazing Meeting in to view this wonder of nature as little carried away and ended up June 2008. I wish to thank Phil Plait large chunks of the ice and family for taking care wall fell into the water. of me in Boulder, Elaine This also marked our Gilman, Reed Esau and turn-around point. Hal Bidlack for a wonder- As we sailed back down ful time in Denver, Jeff the coast, we enjoyed not Wagg and his Dad Joe for only the spectacular organising the cruise, scenery but also more Rebecca Watson for intro- talks by Phil Plait and ducing me to martinis and Rebecca Watson. Every- finally James Randi who one, throughout the entertained and delighted voyage, had the chance to all throughout the Amaz- have private conversa- ing Adventure 2. tions with all the speak- You can hear interviews ers and especially with from this Amazing Adven- James Randi. I usually ture and view photos by found him at the break- visiting: fast table and it was here Pigasus in paper tinyurl.com/yplz53

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 29 Religion What’s Wrong with Evolution?

Cutting through the dross to ell, according to our old time. While Christian orthodoxy seems find the underlying dross Wfriends at Creation Ministries to have remained stable over two mil- International (CMI) (formerly lennia …, the record of science is far Answers in Genesis, formerly … er, different. The constant testing of fun- let’s skip all the ‘formerlys’), there’s damental scientific beliefs has yielded a whole lot wrong with evolution. a long series of significant Being of a taxonomic persuasion, I reorientations … (Bauman, 19) thought I might try to classify CMI’s So how does evolution relate to objections to evolution, the better to ‘true’ or ‘real’ science? Earlier assess what evils Darwin’s demon- creationists such as the American child has wrought upon the world. Duane T. Gish took the line that ‘creationism was just as scientific as Evolution contradicts Creationism evolution’, but CMI abandoned that Evolution’s essential flaw is that it idea as too defensive. To some contradicts the Genesis story/stories extent, the answer depends on which of the creation of the world and CMI publication you’re reading, but thereby casts doubt on the accuracy taken as a whole there is a clear of God’s Word, the Bible. majority view. We immediately strike a problem Creationist Steven J. Robinson in that CMI can’t quite decide where appears to accept that both evolu- evolutionary theory stands in tion and creationism are scientific relation to something it calls ‘true theories: science’. I’ve been unable to find a Because the theories of evolution and concise definition of what ‘true special creation are mutually exclusive science’ might be, but it seems to be and attempt to account for evidence highly practical in nature, assigning which either does or does not accord relatively low significance to the role with them, particular versions of the of inferential thinking, and following theories can be falsified; they cannot a set of ‘guiding principles’ which both be true, and … we should at least ‘must by their very nature, come to be able to draw conclusions about science from outside science’ which is the more probable theory. (Bauman, 24). I’m sure we’re all (Robinson, 56) wondering what the source of these ‘guiding principles’ might be. In saying this, Robinson differen- ‘True science’ should also give us a tiates his contention from that made comforting sense of stability: in a piece by creationist David Malcolm: Brian Baxter, a Melbourne based writer and … [S]cience [as currently practised] educator, is our resident commentator on fringe seems a far more fickle pursuit than [V]ery many articles have been written religious movements. theology, especially when viewed over by creationists, making the point that

Page 30 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 evolution is not able to be falsified, and ‘beliefs’. Except, of course, for those Antisocial aspects of evolution therefore it is not science. (Robinson, 56) ideas based on the self-authenticat- Even if evolution were true, it could Indeed, the vast majority of CMI’s ing Word of God. on no account be taught as such contributors agree that evolutionary owing to its devastating effects on theory cannot be regarded as sci- More difficulties society. There are lots of these. In a ence. It is ‘not real science’, a Evolution also has a series of fatal further concession to my pseudoscience, it is ‘easily refutable flaws, the chief one being that it is taxonomical tendencies, I’ve divided by science’, a ‘so-called theory’, ‘a impossible (I think you’ll agree that them into moral, social, religious theory, not a fact’ (an old favourite), this is a pretty big drawback for any and political effects, some of which there is ‘no evidence’ for it, it is theory): overlap. merely ‘a belief’ about the past, a … [R]eal-world (biological) evolution is ‘modern idol’, ‘a religion’, and, of impossible, even if there were the eons of Moral effects course, ‘a lie’. time claimed by evolutionists. (Batten, 14) These are uniformly dire: ‘Real science’ Macroevolution cannot operate Evolution, then, is [a] religious philoso- under any circumstances: phy which attempts to explain life with- Ken Ham, co-founder of CMI in its out God. Its adherents therefore believe earliest incarnation, but currently … [M]utations cannot provide the raw no one has authority over them. Conse- estranged from the present leader- material for natural selection, and thus quently, they have no basis for deter- ship (see Brian Baxter ‘Creationism: evolutionary naturalism has no viable mining what is right or wrong. They A House Divided’, the Skeptic, mechanism. (Bergman [1995], 146) do what they want to do. Winter 2007, 8-11) explains to us the A major problem — reminiscent of difference between ‘real science’ and Bauman’s musings above — is that This is the morality inherited from a evolution: the findings of evolutionary scien- belief in evolution. The horrifying in- Now, I taught real science as a teacher. tists are ‘subject to change’ owing to crease in homosexuality, pornography, I taught students about computers, their fallibility, whereas the Bible is de facto partnerships, abortion, lawless- chemical reactions, the technology changeless: ness and so on is a natural result of that put man on the moon, and so on. … [O]ur primary evidence should al- abandoning these primary truths found But I also taught them that when a ways be the infallible written testimony in the first chapters of Genesis. (Crea- person talks about origins - about the of One Who was there [at the creation] tion Science Foundation [1987], 4) past — they have just stepped outside and never errs, not the evidence of fal- It’s often difficult for people who of the science they use in everyday life. lible scientists who weren’t there and don’t read much creationist litera- Evolution is a belief about the past. often err. (Sarfati, 148) ture to appreciate one of CMI’s (Ham, 74) Furthermore, ‘evolution cannot foundational concepts, namely, that So for Ham, ‘real science’ seems to increase the complexity of the owing to the baleful influence of stop where it departs from what he genome’ is clearly false since both evolutionary theory, the Western regards as the incontrovertible primitive and later types can co- world as a whole no longer possesses demands of divine revelation. The exist; and in any event, the entire any sort of moral compass at all: role of inference does not entirely theory is ‘confused and in disarray’. The [modern, Western] education sys- disappear but is subordinated to And if that isn’t enough, misguided tem does not equip its students with the Ham’s fundamentalist reading of the supporters of evolutionary theory intellectual tools to differentiate be- Bible: fall into a neat little debating trap tween truth and error, because in the … [T]here’s no doubt that the absolute courtesy of the Bible’s infallibility: evolutionary system truth and error authority of God’s Word was eroded by More than one hundred years ago, don’t exist. (Sparrow, 4) evolutionary teaching (that man deter- Robert Lewis Dabney pointed out that Of course, the ‘intellectual tools to mines truth independent of revelation), it is not good enough for the [evolution- differentiate between truth and as more and more people compromised ist] scoffer to propose a hypothesis that error’ are identical with ‘the moral with God’s Word. (Ham, 143) may be true, and claim thereby that the strictures identified by fundamental- ists in the Bible’. In particular, we can’t apply our Bible is disproved. Rather, they must show that their hypothesis must be true; An interesting corollary of CMI’s current knowledge to the past that there is no other possible explana- viewpoint is that people who accept because ‘we weren’t there’ and, if you tion. On the other hand, we don’t have evolutionary theory should refrain go back far enough, only God was to prove that their hypothesis is wrong. from criticising the behaviour of there and only his word can be We just need to show that other possi- others: trusted. In the absence of tangible bilities exist. (Pierce, 11-12) proof, ie, something that would … [W]hen [those holding to evolution] satisfy the demands of ‘real science’, So there you go. I bet Richard see unethical behaviour by others, they all our ideas about the past are mere Dawkins never thought of that one. have no grounds on which to judge that

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 31 What’s Wrong with Evolution

behaviour as wrong. It may be their based laws and rules. And in the proc- closely related … The paradigm of evo- choice … to do good to others. But it ess, young people become indoctrinated lution … is one of the root causes of rac- may be another’s choice … to take ad- with the hopelessness of existence. (CSF ism. (Wieland and Sarfati, 37) vantage of everyone around them in Prayer News, June-July 1989, 3) Speaking more generally, sup- order to get ahead. If evolution is true, CMI proceeds to assure us that porter Ian Taylor simply argues that then neither position is right or wrong. the top discipline problems facing evolutionary theory: (Cardno, 46) Californian schools in 1940 included … has been the cause of more blood- So students go into their science ‘talking, chewing gum and making shed, misery and plain wrong- classes, are taught that ‘they’re just noise’, while today’s main problems headedness than any other theory. animals that evolved from some include robbery, rape and suicide. (Taylor, 45) primeval soup’ (Ham, 16), therefore This tale has been debunked a lose any sense of morality and number of times — see Religious effects proceed to boost the abortion, www.snopes.com/language/docu- divorce and homosexuality statistics. ment/school.asp. Of course, the CMI chief Carl Wieland is convinced that evolution is the major barrier to I think that’s how it works. No linking of the legend to the teaching Christian revival in the West. Like wonder Ken Ham again raises his of evolution is all CMI’s own work. many fundamentalists, he seems to voice in loud lament: In attempting to explain massa- wish that modernity and most of its … [W]e observe increasing lawlessness, cres such as that which took place accoutrements, especially evolution- at Columbine High School in suicide, abortion, homosexual behav- ary theory, would just pack up and iour, pornography, euthanasia and Colorado in 1999, CMI writers like go away: many other social ills. (Ham, 67) David Catchpoole will invariably find the means to blame it all on … [I]n Third World countries, people CMI supporter A. W. Mehlert with no Christian background are re- evolution: studied the stats for ex-nuptial sponding to the Gospel … Those in births, divorce and crime in Aus- … [T]his [teenage] fixation with death Third World countries are not as indoc- tralia during the period 1903-1993, is hardly surprising given that most trinated in the view that science has clearly demonstrating that they all public schools in Western nations now shown that all things are evolving, rose steeply after the early 1960s. teach that violence and death are ‘natu- there can be no absolute truth, no final His conclusion? ral’ evolutionary mechanisms that have answers; that the Bible has fairy tales The only common thread is the heavy operated with chance processes to pro- in the first chapter; that death is not indoctrination of school-children and duce man over millions of years. an enemy to be conquered through the the general public with the theory of Let’s follow Catchpoole’s line of cross, but is an integral part of the crea- mechanistic evolution … The evolu- thought as he warms to his theme: tion process, and so on. (Wieland [1989], 1) tionary ‘dog-eat-dog’, ‘survival-of-the- Having been told since childhood that fittest’ and ‘law-of-the-jungle’ man is just an animal, that death and But we’re not living in a Third mentality of atheistic evolution now violence are a natural part of evolution World country, so CMI has to oper- rules supreme at all levels … [I]t be- and that ‘only the fittest survive’, it is ate in the prevailing conditions, hooves creationists to continue to fight which according to creationists are no wonder that this generation of young this ungodly and pernicious teaching absolutely devastating: people are wallowing in utter hopeless- with all the means at our disposal ness … Many of these people are ‘walk- Four out of five high school students until it is driven out of society alto- ing time-bombs’, without fear of any who attend evangelical churches will gether. (Mehlert, 161-2) judgment after death, and primed to drop out of church by the time they (I know I should soundly berate explode in anger and hatred at any reach their senior school year. Fact: al- Mehlert for his misuse of statistics, time. (Catchpoole, 17) most all the information they are taught but frankly, what’s the point?) is presented in an evolutionary/long- CMI also holds evolutionary age framework. This is directly con- Social effects theory responsible for racism. (I trary to the entire historical framework CMI recycles the ancient urban doubt whether they emphasise this of Biblical Christianity. Can anyone legend about school discipline idea too loudly when talking to seriously deny that this is a major, prob- problems having exponentially Southern Baptist audiences, but ably the major factor in this horrifying increased since the 1940s: they’re quite firm about it in more statistic? (Anonymous [2002], 23) racially tolerant milieux). CMI’s Although Darwin’s theory has been One of evolution’s many indirect South African friend Prof. Walter around for some time, the real ‘push’ crimes is that it necessitates devi- Veith ‘agree[s] totally’ that: through schools and the media has only ousness on the part of Christian come in the past few decades. As society … if people had taken the Genesis his- children: begins to abandon belief in the Creator, tory of mankind seriously, they would What about answering test questions? people abandon respect for creation- have realised that [races] were all For example, the question may read,

Page 32 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 ‘What is the age of the earth?’ Let’s say What is the disease which has affected munist holocausts), but also in the rise the student has been taught ‘4.6 billion [the] once-mighty mainline churches? of the many ruthless robber baron capi- years’ and yet is convinced (from Scrip- They were the first to embrace and ac- talists that flourished in the late 1800s ture, backed up by evidence) that it is commodate the theory of evolution — and early 1900s. (Bergman [2002], 105) less than 10,000 years. If he/she writes this led inevitably to liberal theology, So, in terms of political effects, ‘4.6 billion years’ that would seem to be both in the US and in Australia. pretty well anything bad can be dishonest. If the young-age opinion is CMI boss Carl Wieland warns sheeted home to the theory of simply given, that will surely lose that even conservative evangelical evolution. marks. churches face the same threat: What a conundrum! Surely Begin to compromise with even a small Conclusion ‘honesty’ will win the day. Or will it? part of evolutionism, a belief which con- In my opinion, it all gets back to the Our suggestion is to give the required tradicts the entire sweep, flow and pernicious effects of total reliance on answer, as taught, in a way that makes thrust of the Creation/Fall/Redemp- ‘divine revelation’. In a recent article it clear that it is not (necessarily) one’s tion framework of biblical history and in Free Inquiry, journal of the (US) own opinion. For example, ‘Many sci- cosmology, and there is no stopping Council for Secular , entists believe the earth is 4.6 billion point. The evolutionary Trojan horse Richard Dawkins reminds us of the years old.’ (Anonymous [1990], 3) will gobble up all vestiges of anything words of fundamentalist and CMI CMI may call it honesty. I call it distinctively Christian. (Wieland favourite Kurt Wise: chicanery. But one must feel some [1990], 1-2) … [I]f all the evidence in the universe turns against creationism, I would be sympathy for the unfortunate child, Political effects a victim of unreason if ever there the first to admit it, but I would still be was one. Apart from the political effects I’ve a creationist because that is what the However, as far as CMI is con- already mentioned or implied: Word of God seems to indicate. Here I cerned, the essential relationship Darwinism was critically important, must stand. (Dawkins, 11) between evolutionary theory and the not only in supporting the development What’s wrong with evolution? The Christian religion is that the former and rise of Nazism and communism scientific method. That’s what’s tends to destroy the latter: (and in producing the Nazi and com- ‘wrong’ with evolution.

Bibliography

Anonymous, 1990. ‘Kids and School Catchpoole, David, 1999. ‘How to Pierce, Larry, 2000. ‘Niagara Falls Tests on Evolution’, Prayer News, Build a Bomb in the Public School and the Bible’, Creation Ex Nihilo, Oct, 3. System’, Creation, vol.22, no.1, Dec- Sept-Nov, 8-12. Feb, 17. Anonymous, 2002. ‘The Ostrich Robinson, Steven J., 1998. ‘Dinosaurs Syndrome in the West’, Creation, Creation Science Foundation Ltd. in the Oardic Flood’, CEN Tech. J, vol.12, no.1, 55-68. vol.24, no.4, Sept-Nov, 23. (CSF — an earlier title of CMI’s), 1987. Decade of Creation (supple- Sarfati, Jonathan D., 1998. ‘Loving Batten, Don, 2000. ‘Genetic algo- ment to New Life, 17 Sept). God With All Your Mind: Logic and rithms and robotic folly’, Creation Ex CSF, 1989. Prayer News, June-July Creation’, CEN Tech. J, vol.12, no.2, Nihilo Technical Journal (CEN 142-151. Tech.J), vol.14, no.3, 13-14. 1989, 3. Sparrow, Peter, 1995. ‘Kiwis flock to Dawkins, Richard, 2007. ‘“The God Bauman, Michael, 1997. ‘Between Creation “Bus”’, CSF Prayer News, Delusion” Phenomenon (Part 2)’, Free Jerusalem and the Laboratory: A Nov, 4. Theologian Looks at Science’, CEN Inquiry, Oct-Nov, 11-13 . Taylor, Ian T., 2001. ‘Darwin’s “joint Tech.J, vol.11, no.1, 18-24. Ham, Ken, 1999. Creation Evange- paper”’ (letter), Technical Journal, Bergman, Jerry, 1995. ‘Mutations lism for the New Millennium (An- vol.15, no.3, 45. swers in Genesis). and Evolution’, CEN Tech. J, vol.9, Wieland, Carl, 1989. ‘The Seeds of no.2, 146-154. Malcolm, David, 1997. ‘A philosophi- Revival’, Prayer News, Aug, 1. cal attempt to define science’, CEN Bergman, Jerry, 2002. ‘Darwin’s Wieland, Carl, 1990. ‘Why Are the Tech. J, vol.11, no.2, 167-180. critical influence on the ruthless Mainline Churches Dying?’, CSF extremes of capitalism’, Technical Mehlert, A.W., 1998. ‘A close link Prayer News, Jan-Feb, 1-2. Journal, vol.16, no.2, 105-109. between evolutionary theory and the Wieland, Carl and Jonathan Sarfati Cardno, Steve, 2002. ‘The Creation degeneration of contemporary (interviewing Walter Veith), 1999. Basis for Morality’, Creation, vol.24, society?’ (letter), CEN Tech. J, vol.12, ‘Professing Creation’, Creation, no.3, Jun-Aug, 44-47. no.2, 161-162. vol.22, no.1, 36-38.

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 33 Investigation The Haunted Sanatorium

The Business of Haunting he history of the Waverly Hills fellow dripping with gold jewellery TSanatorium in Louisville, and wearing a baseball cap with Kentucky, combines disease, death SHERIFF convincingly embroidered and dilapidation, essential elements across the forehead. He greeted me for a haunting. According to legend, with, “I’d hate to have to arrest you, this 20th Century tuberculosis ma’am”. I apologised profusely and sanatorium was the scene of 63 000 introduced myself. Confident that I deaths, horrendous treatments, was harmless, the Sheriff extended patient abuse, cruel experiments, his hand and exclaimed, “People and of suicide and intrigue. This is ‘round these parts call me Gooch”. yet another ‘most haunted building I boldly asked Gooch if I could in America’ (ie, well-marketed). take a legal look around the Popularised by movies, documenta- premises and he kindly tried to ries and reality television shows, the arrange this with the owners. Sanatorium is a hub of tourist, if not Unfortunately, a dignitary was paranormal, activity. about to inspect the premises, much However, the precise location of to Gooch’s chagrin, “I don’t care for the Sanatorium is a closely guarded them politician types. They can kiss secret. How to find a hidden haunted my ass.” In consolation, I was property? Knowing that the building invited to attend a tour to be held had been abandoned until recently, I later that afternoon. I spent the day consulted a teenager at a local café. wandering around the city’s down- Probably having spent many blissful town area, learning how to pro- hours away from parental oppres- nounce Louisville (locals say sion at the Sanatorium, the fellow loo-wuh-vay-ul), sipping a mint was able to provide some simple julep, and checking out the muse- directions, “Follow the Dixie High- ums to the city’s claims to fame, the way, turn left at the railway crossing Kentucky Derby and Colonel Sand- and left again at Bobby Nichol’s golf ers. course”. Seemingly out of nowhere, an Taking the tour imposing building atop a hill came The tour began with a screening of into view. The gates to the building an episode of Sci-Fi channel’s TAPS, were closed, but I followed a well- showing an investigation of the worn path through an opening in the Sanatorium. This un-skeptical fence. I happily trespassed around investigation found ‘evidence’ of the premises until I noticed a paranormal activity, by way of Karen Stollznow, a lecturer in linguistics in the security camera. Evidently, this Electronic Voice Phenomena (EVPs) USA, is Associate Editor of the Skeptic. camera had also noticed me. A large that captured “moans”, Electro www.bad-language.com red truck appeared. Out stepped a Magnetic Field (EMF) readings that

Page 34 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 detected “paranormal energy”, video highest annual death rate was 152 convert the premises into a maxi- footage of “apparitions” and photos people (This figure was taken from mum-security prison, a plan that of orbs. The group searches for proof, the early to mid 1940s and repre- was thwarted by outraged neigh- rather than truth, and ended the sented an influx of untreated return- bours. Plans to remodel the building show with the claim, “If anyone says ing World War II soldiers). 3 As a into a set of apartments also failed. this place isn’t haunted they’re maximum estimate, this would put In 1996 the Christ the Redeemer lying.” In looking at photos of the the total death rate at approxi- Foundation Inc. purchased the Sanatorium in operation, what is mately 7448 during the 49 years of estate. Inspired by the Rio de truly haunting is the look of sadness operation. This is less than 12% of Janeiro statue, the Foundation had on the gaunt, pallid faces of the the propagated figure, but we can a vision to construct the world’s patients who knew they were dying. assume that the actual figure is less largest statue of Jesus Christ. Following an outbreak of Failing to raise the necessary tuberculosis in the County, a funds, the eccentric group sanatorium was opened in 1912 abandoned the plans, and the in an attempt to contain the building. The Sanatorium disease. This original hospital quickly fell prey to trespassers housed 50 patients. This was and vandals, and from the decay prior to the 1943 introduction its haunted reputation arose. of the antibiotic streptomycin, and the contagious ‘White Getting down to business Plague’ rapidly reached pan- The current owners, Tina and demic proportions on a global Charles Mattingly, purchased scale (even today, it is esti- the property in 2001, with plans mated that 2 billion people, one to construct a ‘haunted hotel and third of the world’s population, museum’. With the phenomenal are infected with the tuberculo- publicity generated by the sis bacterium).1 Surrounded by Sanatorium’s sudden fame, and swampland, Louisville was the funding (“donations”) from ghost perfect environment for breed- tours and overnight ghost hunts, ing tuberculosis. However, it this goal is well on the way to was believed that the country realisation. A unique way to air was beneficial for the circumvent the mortgage crisis, disease. To cope with the spate it is a growing trend in the US of cases, the city built another to capitalise on (and often hospital to treat up to 400 create) the paranormal for patients. profit. Never before has America The Sanatorium operated been so haunted. from 1926 until 1961. Rob, Waverley Hills entrance The gutted, defaced insides of “tour guide and historian” the building no longer reflect its claims that 63 000 people died at still. Where might this sensational- majestic face. Vandalised and Waverly Hills during the five dec- ised number come from? Perhaps 63 devastated, what remains of the ades of operation. He further claims 000 is a mistaken extrapolation of walls are covered in grime, graffiti that during the height of the out- approximately 152 deaths per month and peeling paint. Rubbish and break, the death rate was one person rather than per year. Conversely, 63 debris litter the floors. Most of the every hour (another source claims 000 might reflect the deaths doors and windows are missing, not three per hour). 2 These shocking, throughout the state of Kentucky to mention parts of the ceiling. The incomprehensible statistics are during the pandemic. 4 building is sprouting weeds and perpetuated in books, on television The Sanatorium closed its doors infested with bats and rats. The and online, but are these figures in 1961 and has had a fragmented grounds are overgrown. ‘This place factual? history ever since. From 1962 until must be haunted’, remarked most of 1981 the building operated as my tour companions. This is haunt- Looking for facts Woodhaven Geriatrics Hospital. It is ing by stereotype. Unfortunately, the hospital records claimed that the hospital was closed Waverly Hills is reputedly were lost in a fire and it is difficult following a series of patient abuses haunted by a large number of to calculate a precise number of both (However, the building is expensive ghosts. Some visitors report the patients and deaths. However, an to run and this rumour might ride sight of phantom children running autobiography by former Director Dr on the grisly reputation of Waverly through the long halls of the build- J. Frank Stewart claims that the Hills). The next owner planned to ing. The Sanatorium housed many

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 35 The Haunted Sanitorium child patients, and pa- thoracoplasty, a disfiguring tients’ family members operation where ribs were who had been exposed to broken and pushed into the tuberculosis. Mundanely, thoracic cavity to collapse the these ‘phantom children’ lung. These seem barbaric are probably real children, today, but they were drastic, given the volume of final attempts to alleviate visitors. Likewise, critical conditions. Treatment sightings of so-called for less severe cases included ‘shadow people’ are a high protein diet, and bed probably shadows cast by rest, outside, throughout the people. A popular story sweltering summers and icy features the ghost of winters. ‘Timmy’, a young boy who playfully bounces a ball. The ‘Tunnel of Death’ Red balls are strewn Like a fun park ride gone across the premises to wrong, the ‘Tunnel of Death’, lend effect to this story, The Death Tunnel ‘Death Tunnel’ (the name of a but some visitors inter- recent movie about the Sanatorium) pret the mere sight of a ball as a rampant in Louisville during the or ‘Body Chute’ lies on the grounds sign that Timmy is about. When early to mid 1940s, until the intro- of the property. This 500ft long captured on film, this “bouncing” duction of streptomycin. The ‘autop- tunnel was reputedly used to dis- becomes a gentle roll, suggesting sied woman’ and ‘draining room’ creetly transfer the deceased from that the real culprit is the wind myths might stem from the experi- the hospital to awaiting hearses. flowing through the windowless mental surgery that took place in Apparently, the tunnel is haunted by windows. the Sanatorium, including the the spirits of those who made the A melodramatic female apparition unsuccessful artificial pneumotho- journey down its length. It is likely is shackled, covered with bleeding rax or ‘resting the lung’ procedure that this tunnel was used to convey incisions and screams “help me!” that involved collapsing a diseased the dead, but a constant cavalcade of This ghost piggy-backs another lung to allow lesions to heal; and bodies fits in better with the ‘three myth, the existence of an deaths per hour, 63 000 deaths abattoir-like ‘draining room’. in total’ myth. The steep tunnel The following comes from an was probably originally devised investigation of the premises: to transport supplies, and The last stop for the dead inside possibly laundry. Of course, the of the hospital would be the laundry is also haunted, by “draining room”. The corpses faces that materialise on the would be hung from the poles in floor. There is also a haunted the room and then slit from ster- Morgue and autopsy room, and num to groin so that all of their an Electro Convulsive Therapy bodily fluids would drain out. room, from the days of the Once this was completed, the home for the elderly, where bodies were taken down, placed screams of terror can be heard on the gurney and then trans- at night (hang on, was this a ported down the body chute. home, or a mental health care Later on, as tuberculosis became facility?). less threatening in the 1930s, the ‘Mary’ is an eyeless ghost. room was used as a smokehouse Like a cartoon character, her to cure the meat that was raised glowing, disembodied eyes are and slaughtered on the grounds.5 supposedly seen floating about Conversely, floor plans in darkened rooms. ‘Ralph’ show that this was a switch- haunts the halls of the third board room. The quote also floor. Ashen, consumptive faces offers a bonus fallacy that stare out of the windows “tuberculosis became less wistfully. But the most infa- threatening in the 1930s”. We mous ghost, and most infamous know from Dr Stewart’s book room, is the Nurse of Room that the disease was most Room 502 502. The most common version

Page 36 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 of the story tells of an culosis, the high mortal- unmarried nurse who ity rates, the sufferings had an affair with a of the patients, the married doctor in 1935 hopelessness and ever- (or 1926 or 1930). She present fear of death. Is became pregnant. Her it the ghost hunter who grisly solution was to is brave, or is it the abort herself and ‘flush doctors and nurses who the foetus down a com- persisted, despite ineffec- mode’. In her shame, she tive treatments and the hanged herself from the risk of contagion? Myths rafters of Room 502. undermine and distort Wearing a long white the fascinating, true nurse’s gown covered in story of the Sanatorium. blood, she now haunts Inventing history might Sun Room — Women’s Ward this room, along with a be profitable, but it is ghostly companion. Another nurse statistics, false history and falla- also cheap, and even Waverly Hills contracted tuberculosis and in her cious medical information. There- is bound to be supplanted by the misery, jumped to her death from fore, can these be reliable sources for next ‘Most Haunted’. this fifth floor room. No record of investigating supposed paranormal these events exists, but real or not, activity? Furthermore, these investi- the stories reflect the suffering and gators are too readily convinced, Notes: despair that probably pervaded the despite the lack of credible evidence. Sanatorium. For example, the Paranormal 1 Retrieved 26/10/07 from: National These anecdotes are reminiscent of Investigations of Texas group Institute of Allergy and Infectious a B-grade horror film. In fact, we can provide a series of Electronic Voice Diseases. Phenomena that are presented as attribute most of these stories to bad www.niaid.nih.gov/news/ proof that Waverly Hills is haunted. movies, un-skeptical documentaries newsreleases/1996/tbtip.htm and ‘reality’ TV. Numerous amateur Two examples feature recordings of investigations have been conducted inaudible “actual ghost voices” that 2 Retrieved 26/10/07 from: on the premises. Most notably, the reputedly convey such convincing www.hauntedamericatours.com/ Celebrity Paranormal Project for messages as “Oh my Lord” and buildings/WaverlyHillsSanatorium/ ailing acting careers featured emi- “Gotta get outta here, Bo”7. Falling 3 Stewart, J. Frank. 1991. Sunrise, nent scientist Gary Busey (who spent debris is interpreted as the presence Sunset: an Autobiography. New York: most of the show screaming and of spirits.8 The documentary Vantage Press. crying). As I type, the Ghost Hunters Spooked: The Ghosts of Waverly 4 Retrieved 25/10/07 2007 from: are conducting a live 6-hour Hallow- Hills Sanatorium, supplies blurry en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ een investigation, featuring an footage of ‘orbs’ (dust or moisture) Waverly_Hills_Sanatorium overly-emotional group of adults and ‘ghosts’ (shadows) to ‘prove’ that talking inanely to invisible ‘spirits’, the premises are haunted, all 5 Retrieved 27/10/07 from: commanding them to respond, and supported by anecdotal evidence, www.prairieghosts.com/ filming a still red ball. Feeding the especially from the owners.9 How- waverly_tb.html frenzy, viewers email their observa- ever, as I’ve been advised, no one 6 Sci-Fi channel, 31/10/07. tions of ghostly sights and sounds should research these claims too 7 Retrieved 31/10/07 from: from the comfort of their couches deeply, as we don’t want to “ruin the 6 www.paratexas.com/waverly.htm (“Jeff of Kansas saw a floating face”). livelihood” of these folk. Such TV shows, documentaries, As usual, it seems that fact is 8 www.prairieghosts.com/ books and websites are rife with stranger, and more profound than waverly_tb.html inaccurate dates, grossly inflated fiction; the pandemic scale of tuber- 9 www.imdb.com/title/tt0437484/

Renew if You’re Due (Please)

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 37 Letter from Witches and Africans

Reporting on more serious itchcraft is one of the most insects and animals, especially birds, problems in Africa Wpotent and ‘dreaded’ supersti- are suspected of being witches or tions in Africa. Most Africans believe wizards. In the Gambia or Senegal, witches are real active beings that witches are associated with the owl. can act to influence, intervene and Witches are believed to operate alter the course of human life for good mainly at night, allegedly organising or ill. Africans accept as an nocturnal meetings in the seas and explanation, or perception and forests, where they feast on human interpretation of their problems, blood, flesh or fetuses. events, nature and reality. They The general belief is that witches believe witches can cause poverty, and wizards always convene to plan diseases, accidents, business failures, evil. They gather to plot how to inflict natural disasters, infertility and harm on people, especially their childbirth difficulties. Many people in family members. As a result of this, Africa attribute any extraordinary, throughout Africa witchcraft accusa- mysterious or inexplicable event or tion in families is common. People phenomenon to witchery and wiz- blame their parents, husbands, ardry. wives, children, uncles and aunts or In some African communities there grandparents for any evil or misfor- is even a talk about positive and tune that befalls them, even those negative witchcraft. The belief is that they caused for themselves. positive witchcraft is used to do good, In most cases these accusations cure diseases or solve problems, and have led to ostracism, persecution, negative witchcraft is used to do evil. torture, and inhuman and degrading But generally, in Africa, witchcraft is treatment or outright killing of associated with evil, harm and alleged witches. destruction. Witch hunting The human angle So while witch hunting is a thing of Africans believe witches and wizards the past in Europe and the entire are spirits, but that they carry out western world, in Africa it is still an their nefarious activities as human ongoing activity. Witch attacks, beings, animals or insects. The belief persecution and killings still take is that witches and wizards trans- place on the continent. Incidentally, form into other bodies to perpetrate most of the victims are women and their evil machinations. In countries children. like Nigeria, Cameroon, , Recently there have several Malawi and Uganda, witches are reported cases of witch attacks and Leo Igwe heads the Nigerian Skeptics and is a identified mostly with women or killings in different parts of the regular Skeptic correspondent. infants. In Nigeria, all nocturnal continent. In Eastern Cape of South

Page 38 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Africa, a woman, her daughter, and mob, or pronouncements made by are fantasies crafted by human grandson were hacked to death for individuals of questionable mental beings out of fear and ignorance. allegedly practicing witchcraft. In health. Witchcraft is an offshoot of the Ghana a woman, Samata Karim, was Besides, in some cultures in spiritualist and supernatural world- almost lynched by a mob on the Nigeria, witch confession is believed view which prevailed at the infancy of suspicion that she was a witch. The to be therapeutic. Among the the human race. Most Africans mob went after Samata after a Okpameri people in Southern Ni- believe that witches cause poverty, neighbour said she dreamt and saw geria, witch confession is believed to disease, accidents, business failures, Samata strangling her to death. be curative. So those suffering famine, earthquake, infertility and During my recent visit to Ghana, I prolonged and complicated ailments other calamities that befall human- was told that a witch camp — a place are urged ‘to confess and be healed’. kind, but there is no evidence for where women suspected to be witches Also in Pentecostal churches, witch this. Witchcraft has no basis in are kept — exists in a Northern part confession is perceived as a process of reason, science or in reality. The time of the country. In Uganda, three spiritual rebirth and recreation. has come for Africans to abandon this women suspected as witches were primitive belief and the atrocious lynched in Kitgum. The women were The Christian confusion crimes of witch attack, torture, accused of using witchcraft to kill a As in other aspects of African life and persecution and killing. man in the district. society, Christianity has been confus- The time has come for Africans to In 2004, in Edo State, Nigeria, 27 ing and complicating efforts to abandon superstition and embrace men and women suspected to be understand and eradicate witchcraft science. witches and wizards died after they and to realise social and cultural were forced to drink a local concoction progress. Though the belief in witch- Skepticism in action believed to be for witch identification. craft predates the advent of Christi- In August 2007, I travelled with some And in June this year a 70-year-old anity to Africa, over the centuries the Nigerian Skeptics to Umuchieze — a man killed his grandson in Kaduna in Christian faith has spread and rural community in Imo State — Northern Nigeria. He alleged that the succeeded in reinforcing and appro- where we met with a couple who were son used witchcraft to kill his three priating this primitive belief. Many almost lynched by a Christian mob children in quick succession. In churches in Africa organise fellow- for witchcraft. Tanzania and Mozambique there ships and revival meetings to cast out In February, Gabriel and Celine have been reported incidents of the demons of witchcraft and counter- Ogu were alleged to have indulged in killing, torture and maiming of act their occult activities. witchcraft activities. Gabriel was persons in the name of witchcraft. The Bible enjoins believers not to accused of sucking the blood of to suffer witches to live. So today, infants in a local school where he Witch confession Pentecostal churches, with their works as a driver, while Celine was One of the most intriguing aspects of literalist approach to the Bible, are said to be responsible for the death of the belief in witchcraft is witch championing a neo-witch hunt in many family members, including her confession — the claim that witches Africa. In 2003 at least 25 people own children. The villagers mobilised and wizards sometimes openly admit suspected of being witches and and wanted to lynch the couple, but to indulging in occult activities. wizards were clubbed or hacked to they were saved by the prompt Believers in witchcraft often cite — death in Akwa Ibom State in South- intervention of Dr Enyeribe Onuoha, and use — this as a justification for ern Nigeria. The killings started traditional ruler of the community attack and persecution. after some members of the Christian and the Chair of the Nigerian Hu- For instance in 1998 in Lagos, a churches accused their congregation’s manist Movement, who called in the middle aged woman was stoned and parents and relatives of allegedly police. later burnt to death after she alleg- practicing witchcraft and being At the end of the day, the mob edly confessed to have indulged in responsible for poverty, diseases, destroyed the couple’s bicycle, chairs, witchcraft activities. The woman business failure, infertility and other and cut down some food crops in the reportedly confessed to have killed calamities that befell them. As a compound. With the support of the ten people including her own kids as result, some children attacked their , Nigerian Skeptics well as being responsible for the parents, grandparents and relatives bought a new bicycle, four chairs and repatriation of her brother from to elicit confession for their alleged a bench, which were donated to the Europe. Unfortunately, as in all cases participation in witchcraft activities. couple at a short ceremony at the of witch confession, no one tried to So Christians in Africa torture, Palace of Dr Onuoha. We urged the critically examine or confirm these persecute and kill those alleged to be couple to forgive and not to seek claims. No one tried to find out if this witches because their Bible tells vengeance on anyone who might have woman was mentally sound. them so. aided or abetted the attack on them At best, witch confessions are Actually, witches are imaginary and the destruction of their property. utterances elicited under duress by a beings with no real existence. Witches Skeptics care.

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 39 Philosophy Can a Scientist Rely on Induction?

So, what can we deduce from applaud Jon Jermey for his not know what the speed of light will induction? Ilargely sound critique of Chris- be tomorrow until we measure it tian scientists (the Skeptic, 27:3). tomorrow – and as they say, tomor- Nevertheless, as a student of sci- row never comes. We can ence, I must take exception with this not have knowledge of the future. ‘Axiom of Consistency’ nonsense. For The belief that the universe is it has no more place in science than consistent is just that: a belief. It’s the Christian deity. one that every person relies upon in To put it in a nutshell, the notion his day-to-day existence. But it is no that the universe is consistent is not more rationally justifiable than a notion that can be rationally belief in the Flying Spaghetti justified. If you ask the average man Monster. in the street “Will the future, by and large, resemble the past?” he’ll give The Problem of Induction you a funny look and reply “Of In philosophy, there is another fancy course it will, you bloody halfwit!” name for the Axiom of Consistency. But as it turns out, this answer We call it induction. The great cannot be rationally justified. It Scottish philosopher David Hume, must be dogmatically accepted — it amongst his other achievements, must be believed. I’m sure that most such as being able to out-consume of us would agree that dogmatism Schopenhauer and Hegel, was to be and belief have little place in science. the first person to point out that Where is the evidence that the induction cannot be rationally universe is consistent? Where is the justified. This was back in the 18th evidence that a thrush’s egg will century, and more than 200 years always produce a thrush rather than worth of philosophical musings the occasional dragon, or that the haven’t yet managed to come up speed of light will be the same with a really good answer to Hume’s tomorrow as it was today? In the Problem. But you’re welcome to try. case of the former, we would have to What do we mean by a rational observe all thrush egg hatchings, justification? Answers to this ques- everywhere and at all times. I tion vary, but for the purpose at suspect that even Bill Oddie would hand I’m working from the defini- tire of such folly eventually. More to tion of a rational justification as the point, we cannot have any being one that justifies our use of knowledge about thrush egg Dan Carmody is a final year chemistry student the Axiom of Consistency within the hatchings in the future until they at the University of Newcastle, so we cannot field of science. In other words, any become the present. show his picture here (or is that dentists?). He sound argument which will show This point is even more explicit in has an interest in philosophy and critical that induction works, at least most the case of the latter. We simply do thinking. of the time (to demand that it will

Page 40 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 work all of the time is unreasonable Let’s try a different tack. Clearly, ferred from any number of observa- in the field of science — demanding any attempt to justify induction tions — as Hume put it: perfection is unrealistic when inductively is worthless because it Even after the observation of the fre- dealing with practicalities). begs the question. So let’s employ quent or constant conjunction of objects, How, then, might we attempt to the other main branch of philosophi- we have no reason to draw any infer- justify induction? Well, let’s try the cal reasoning — deduction. In any ence concerning any object beyond those obvious answer: because it seems to sound deductive argument, true of which we have had experience. work. In the past, inductive reason- conclusions necessarily follow from We cannot logically infer that all ing has led me to believe that the true premises — it is not possible for swans are white by observing lots of sun will rise tomorrow, that my the premises to be true and the white swans, because that inference kettle will boil water for my morning conclusion false. If a sound deduc- is inductive. Good thing too, because cuppa if it’s switched on and work- tive argument can be constructed to justify induction, we can definitely if we do draw that inference we end ing, and that the speed of light is the up looking a bit of a goose. same today as it was yesterday. And piss off early down the pub. In a sound deductive argument, We can, however, infer that not all you know what? My inductive swans are white by observing a reasoning has been spot on. So the only premises vwe can reason- ably use are those that state things black swan. The argument then there’s your justification, you might looks like this: be inclined to argue. Induction we know. If we are only guessing at works at least most of the time, so the truth of the premises, then the Premise 1: All swans ever observed have been white. let’s all knock off early and go down argument cannot be considered sound. At the most, our premises can the pub. Premise 2: Oh F**k me, will you look only contain knowledge of the past Unfortunately, when we talk at that —a black swan! about induction working most of the and present. And the conclusion to time, we don’t just mean most of the any deductively valid argument Conclusion: Not all swans are white. time in the past and present — we must be contained implicitly within Which is a deductively valid mean past, present and future. the premises. Thus the conclusion to any attempt to deductively justify argument. This is what the great Simple experience tells us that 20th century philosopher of science, induction has worked in the past, induction can refer only to the past and present. And such a conclusion Sir Karl Popper, referred to as ‘the but this doesn’t really mean very asymmetry between verification and much. We don’t actually know if it is insufficient to rationally justify induction, because we want to falsification’; namely that we can will work in the future, we’re just never hope to verify an inductive assuming that this is the case demonstrate that induction will work past, present and future. generalisation, but we can prove it because it has worked so well in the false. In Popper’s own words: past. Science Without Induction The argument we’ve just formu- Only the falsity of the theory can be in- lated takes this form: Without the Axiom of Consistency, ferred from empirical evidence, and this where does that leave science? Mr inference is a purely deductive one. Premise: Inductive reasoning has, at Jermey makes a pretty convincing least most of the time, worked extremely Which means that although we argument that science relies on a well up to this point. can never ultimately prove a scien- belief in induction. But this is not tific theory, we can test it by empiri- Conclusion: Inductive reasoning will, the case at all. Let’s consider one of cal methods, and we do not have to at least most of the time, work well in my favourite examples of the pitfalls (and indeed cannot) rely on induc- the future. of inductive reasoning, an argument tion to do so. Can you see the problem here? It which one might have heard from a This led Popper to formulate his should be fairly apparent that this European zoologist prior to the falsificationist description of the argument involves circular reason- colonisation of Australia: scientific method. In this view, ing, which in philosophy we refer to Premise: All swans ever observed have science does not start with observa- as ‘begging the question’. An argu- been white. tion and experimentation, but rather ment begs the question if it assumes by forming falsifiable conjectures. Conclusion: All swans are white. the validity of the very thing being Instead of just going out and drop- argued for, and it’s considered a big If you can’t see the problem with ping things to see how fast they fall, no-no, for reasons that should be that argument, I recommend a Dr Tarr and Prof Fether start with rather obvious. We are using an holiday to WA. All it takes is the the conjecture ‘Bodies in a vacuum inductive argument in an attempt to observation of one black swan to do (not) fall at the same rate regard- demonstrate the validity of inductive shoot it down in flames. More generally, the truth of inductive argument, which begs the question Continued p45 ... and renders the argument unsound. generalisations can never be in-

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 41 Satire A Tale of Medical Horror

Patient in alternative therapies thought that your readers might left out of it, as it were, because I denial shock! Ibe interested in my recent experi- had been admitted on the basis of ences at Belmont District Hospital need rather than procedure, thereby Emergency Outpatients Depart- denying me the right to have my ment, in the Hunter Valley. name in the papers and be inter- I was stricken with a sudden and viewed by some feather-brained unprecedented attack of renal colic bimbo on commercial television. — blockage of urine flow by kidney Why was I denied the opportunity to stones, to the uninitiated — that become a media tart? completely laid me out and necessi- After vomiting on the triage tated two visits to the hospital. It nurse, I was immediately placed on has been said (except by the ladies) a roller chair and transported at a that this is the most painful afflic- run to a bed, with spotlessly clean tion known, and I have no reason to sheets, pillow case etc fitted while I doubt this view. Forget crucifixion, a waited. This is my second complaint. ballsy martyr, out to save the world, Why was I denied the right to would have opted for renal colic. complain about the attention and I am writing now to express my the hygiene? For that matter, why dissatisfaction with the treatment were my constant screams and dished out by the staff (and policy demands to be euthanised ignored? makers) of the Belmont District Why was I subjected to immediate Public Hospital, and to petition the placement, rather than being left on readers to present a united front in a trolley somewhere? Or left on a outright condemnation of the meth- couple of chairs? Again my rights to ods adopted and imposed on hapless media attention were trampled in recipients such as myself. Allow me the name of efficiency and proce- to tell my story, although readers dure. should be warned that the story is Upon being lifted onto the bed, by not a pretty one. a nurse about half my size, I at- tempted, between spasms of agony, A tale of woe to remove my shoes. I was told: Staggering into the emergency ‘bugger the sheets — they will wash reception centre, bent double and — it is you we are concerned about’. screaming in agony, I was immedi- Now I put it to you, is this fair? Why ately admitted to the emergency should my shoes, filthy dirty after Peter Williams, a Member of the Order of ward, thereby jumping the queue. staggering from the hospital car Pontificators, Prevaricators, Procrastinators, and This is my first complaint. I should park through the rose garden at the Polymaths, is a casual writer of letters to editors have been told to wait my turn. One front of the building, be allowed to on health and religious matters. He is also a sees so many complaints directed at add to the woes of the laundry member of the Newcastle Skeptics. waiting time in emergency that I felt contractor staff? Again, wilful

Page 42 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 concern for the patient had been The heart of the issue the central force field had brought allowed to over-ride logistic consid- about this vexatious state of affairs. Now comes the real heart of the erations, and this on-going problem Imagine my horror when I was issue — the very winter of my must be addressed — urgently. informed that there was no such discontent with the treatment I By this time I had a registered person! That’s right — a major received. By this time the morphine nurse, a trainee nurse, and a doctor public hospital with no in-house had kicked in, and I was in the at my bedside, thereby denying me subluxation expert! position to offer some much needed the right to complain about being ‘What then of aroma therapy’ I advice to the medical staff. It sad- left for hours without attention. In asked — ‘a whiff of essence of violet dens me to record that not only were no time at all I had a drip going, subservient to the spirit of Mongo- no homeopaths consulted, but also several injections, and an infusion of lian white rose could be just what I that there seemed to be none on the morphine — all carried out with need!’ Again, nothing but amused staff of the emergency unit. There new, sterile non re-useable equip- indifference! were not even any homeopathic ment — a scandalous waste of I then pleaded for an exorcism. medications available! That’s right money in itself. There seemed little doubt that an — no vial of 1000X fully sucussed evil spirit had invaded my kidneys, tincture of cat piss was on hand!! Questions that must be asked and an exorcism could well sort the Such an oversight beggars belief and whole thing out. Again, crushing None of this was explained to me at destroyed what little faith that I had disappointment — no bell, book, and the time, and this is another point left in the medical profession! Not candle exponent was available and that should be addressed. The fact only were the well documented none anywhere within the confines that I was incoherent and virtually homeopathic cures not available, but of a hospital that operated under the unconscious provides little excuse the doctor actually expressed the Medicare system! This in a modern, for such a clear disavowal of the view that homeopathic medication taxpayer funded general hospital! doctor/patient relationship as set was useless, with no curative power The registered nurse even had the out regularly in the Wom en ’s Weekly whatsoever! effrontery to tell me to ‘stop taking and other similarly medically I of course knew that one speck of the piss’ and that ‘the best we can do literate publications. What hap- monkey dung, dissolved in a globule is find a celebrant if you die’ while pened to doctor/patient communica- of water the size of the known she gave me another morphine tion? Why was I denied the right to universe, would provide an instant injection, having taken time out at fully discuss the broad and on- cure for haemorrhoids, cancer, and the end of a fourteen hour shift from going ramifications of my treat- every known sexually transmitted ment and to consider other attending two heart attack victims, disease. I felt humble in the face of a traffic accident trauma, and modality options? such ignorance, and horrified that someone who had foolishly fallen off Why were my well known and such words would find utterance a ladder. publicly acknowledged rights to full from one who had accepted the On it went — a litany of incompe- consultation and direct involvement Hippocratic Oath and, unlike ho- tence and indifference to my pain in my treatment denied me? Why meopaths, could be sued for profes- and suffering. No blessed relief via wasn’t I encouraged to visualise sional malpractice. acupuncture needles inserted into myself as being well and whole and What then I asked, of polarity the left ventricle kidney meridian; thereby hasten my recovery? Why therapy? Would a polarity therapy no Mannatech, Noni Juice, extract of didn’t the two nurses join hands specialist be made available to brush ginseng, or Juice Plus capsules with the doctor and thereby amplify away the magnetic field residues, despite my being obviously short of the healing force? Why didn’t the and reconnect the magnetic flows every vitamin and mineral known to staff don white coats and stetho- across the nodes? To my horror the medical science; no aloe vera, scopes as proof of their competence? doctor claimed no knowledge of such spirulina, horny goat weed, dande- Why wasn’t the laying on of hands a medical procedure! That’s right — lion tea, liquorice root extract, modality invoked? Why was no unbelievable as it seems, a medical chamomile, echinacea extract, St healing crystal pyramid placed on practitioner had been let loose with John’s wort, nor indeed any of the my chest? real patients for eighteen hours a many and well tried herbal remedies These oversights provide further day with overtime and emergency whose palliative propensity and egregious examples of the arrogance callouts with no knowledge of the curative capacity are well known commonly displayed by the medical greatest medical advance of the and championed by highly qualified profession, and the total failure of century — the medicine of the future! alternative medicine professionals the public hospital system to provide Would then the house chiro- who have purchased a PhD from the the necessary services, and to stay practor be made available? Clearly best non-accredited universities in touch with the needs of the my subluxations were out of align- available and who, like me, share a general public. ment and spinal disorientation with contempt for the accomplishments of

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 43 A Tale of Medical Horror modern medical science and can see indifference of the ward staff, the the after life and the forgiving of my doctors and nurses for what they are worst happened! What more can sins — the very sins that without — tools of the ‘big pharma’ con- they do to this unfortunate wretch I doubt had caused the problem in the spiracy. hear you ask? Can you believe that I first place! Not even chelation therapy to was denied spiritual succour! How, I When the pain started up again remove the mercury leached from hear you ask? and I requested that my auric ancient tooth fillings and the residue No Gideon Bible Beside the Bed! lifeline be reconnected to the of the childhood vaccinations that That’s right! In the midst of my nethermost region of eternal bliss, I had protected me from polio, diph- agony I was denied the WORD! I was only given another shot of theria, whooping cough, etc was on was denied the constant affirmation morphine! When my blood pressure offer — only fully tested, proven, that Jesus loves me, and wouldn’t rose to dangerous levels I was given and uncontaminated medication was see me come to any harm! I was medication and denied chakra re- available in this hell-hole of medical even denied the spiritual absolution alignment accompanied by the orthodoxy! readily obtained by uttering His holy intoning of ‘om’ — a therapy that ‘What happens next?’ I asked, name! would have immediately corrected shaking off my disappointment and the problem! And so it went on — a despair. To my dumbfounded horror continuous indictment of an ethi- all they could offer was an escorted cally and morally defunct public ambulance ride to the John Hunter hospital system — until at last I hospital for a CT scan! That was it! ... no knowledge was pain free and safely home. I was to be trolleyed into a fully equipped ambulance, with a per- A call to arms sonal attendant and a qualified of the greatest I urge the broader community to ambulance driver, to be whisked off join me in a crusade — a crusade to a machine that, operated by a against the disgraceful standard of university qualified technician at medical advance medical treatment presently avail- eleven o’clock at night, would able to the long-suffering public. I immediately and painlessly photo- offer my own experience as the graph my internal kidney structure of the century — raison d’etre for this action: and provide a picture of the prob- When I needed on-going vitamin lem! therapy, together with broad spectrum I was shattered! This was the the medicine of naturally occurring mineral supple- final blow, and the final demonstra- mentation, I received competent pallia- tion of a totally defunct public tive care; hospital system! Not even a men- the future! When I needed spiritual alignment with tion of re-aligning my bio-rhythms, the eternal planes of existence, I re- no attempt to utilise qigong and the ceived pain relief; natural healing power of energy balance, no investigation of my When I needed to commune with eter- blood-type reaction to my eating In short, I was ruthlessly sacri- nal oneness, I was subjected to dedicated habits, no offer of Reiki therapy or ficed on the altar of Mammon by this professional attention; yogic manipulation, no aura therapy establishment conspiracy! I was When I needed colonic irrigation, iris (despite the obvious fact that my denied the heart-warming stories of analysis , and colour therapy, I received auras were completely rat-shit), not rape, torture, treachery, massacre, advice, sympathy, and guidance; even a suggestion of a twenty-seven murder, genocide, incest, paedo- When I needed to get in touch with my day water fast, or a contemplative philia, misogynistic brutality and inner self and my previous incarnations, meditative trance whilst seated in blood lust so beautifully and con- I was subjected to high tech diagnosis. the lotus position. They didn’t even vincingly recorded in that (undeni- The list goes on. stick lighted candles into my ears, or ably holy) written affirmation of I urge you all to embrace ‘new age’ so much as consider a coffee enema! God’s love for us all! When I de- and alt med therapies and to relive manded absolution for being a rotten the inanities of the past. To suffer The worst is yet to come bastard all my life I was told to shut untold agonies and risk the lives of up! Can this horror story get worse? Yes! yourselves and your loved ones I was denied the use of the The worst is yet to come! rather than submit to the proven Christian Science healing modality, Upon being delivered safely back outcomes of evidence based medi- as propounded by that modern day to the emergency ward and again cine. I urge you to ignore hard-won messiah, Mary Baker Eddy (de- delivered into the hands of the well mainstream university qualifica- demonstrated incompetence and ceased)! I was denied the promise of

Page 44 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 tions, and to consult the local health of Natural Therapies? What price magazines catering to an ever food shop lady who has attended the the hypothetico-deductive method increasingly moronic clientele can’t one day seminar ($250, lunch when compared to the wisdom of the be wrong! Go to it — by clinging to provided — no written exam) offered ages — health protocols formulated the past the future is ours! by Vitamin Industries Inc. I ask you when the Earth was flat, the aver- Link hands, form a Druidic circle, to call upon the services (at $80 per age age at death was twenty-nine, slaughter a chicken, get in touch hour or part thereof) of clairvoyants; the inquisition held sway and few with yourself, and Demand Your reflexologists; applied kinesiologists; people other than priests could read, Rights! herbalists; iridologists; massage whilst heresy examinations, therapists of all persuasions; hypno- burnings at the stake, and witch- Prognosis good therapists; priests; astrologers; craft ‘trials by ordeal’ provided the I am happy to report that the ‘stones’ palmists; pastors; and the lady main public entertainment? were eventually ‘passed’, and I am naturopath who wears a caftan (she Refuse to support a medical fully recovered. I would also cat- really takes an interest in her profession that relies on evidence; egorically state that I would will- clients) down the road in a little peer reviewed publications; ethical ingly engage in discourse with two shop that also offers Balinese wind constraints; repeatable outcomes; spotlessly clean, white shirted, chimes, home made fudge, CDs of and controlled experimental analy- basketball playing Mormons whilst bongo drum duets, thousands of sis. Deny the well documented proof enduring a twenty kilo cannon ball beads, an impressive display of glass of positive results and substantiated hanging from my testicles rather objects of every shape and hue yet anecdotal evidence of the profession- than go through it again. discovered, and scented candles — alism consistently displayed by all at reasonable prices. overworked and dedicated hospital Note What university qualification, staff! backed up by years of mandatory This is your right! Fifty thousand An edited version of this article was ‘hands on’ training in a general ‘new age’ publications, any number first published on 12/10/07 at: teaching hospital, could begin to of dick-headed greasy pole climbing www.onlineopinion.com.au compare in effectiveness and scope tabloid/TV journos, and a plethora of with a one week course at a College ever increasingly moronic ‘celeb’

... Induction from p 41 • secondly, that its account of how from any number of particular scientific thought proceeds is generally instances to a prediction or rule. The less of their size and weight’. Then regarded as being closer to actual scien- very nature of inductive reasoning they do the experiments, not to tific practice. turns their bets about the future gather observations that support into sheer guesswork. Thus any their hypothesis, but instead to Conclusion scientist who claims that science gather observations which falsify Dr Tarr has no more rational reason relies on the Axiom of Consistency is their hypothesis. than Prof Fether to believe in the either lying or misled. Popper’s falsificationist methodol- Axiom of Consistency — not because ogy is considered a great achieve- of some woolly-headed notion of an References/Further Reading: ment over the earlier inductive- intangible deity, but rather because Hume, D. An Inquiry Concerning empiricist methodology for two main of simple logic. An acceptance of the Human Understanding, Section IV. reasons: Axiom of Consistency is one based Popper, K. R. Conjectures and • firstly, that it does not rely on in- wholly on faith, even if it isn’t Refutations. duction, which cannot be justified ration- religious faith. ally or empirically and must be accepted No true scientist — Christian or Skyrms, B. Choice and Chance. dogmatically; and otherwise — can honestly generalise

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 45 News WA Skeptics Student Awards

From our WA correspondent and then include their own test or ary schools in WA with 50+ students, survey. Entries achieving merit a total of 230 schools and nearly ast year, after months of plan would receive a signed certificate 130,000 students. We gave the Lning, a trial of the WA Skeptics and a mention in the Skeptic. deadline, then four months away, Awards for Young Critical Writers The response was 9 entries from a and the website of Australian was launched via a snail-mailout to total of 27 students and three Skeptics for downloading details. the principals of 96 of WA’s largest schools, which resulted in two This emailout did save much secondary schools with a total of Certificates of Merit and two Hon- money and effort but was evidently 92,000 students. The aim was to ourable Mentions. (See the Skeptic, a mistake. Although 19 entries were encourage critical thinking by 18-25, Spring 2006.) received from a total of 47 students, students in years 8-12 (ages 12-17). This year, to save the cost and double the 2006 response, all of Entrants had to review the evidence effort of another snail-mailout, we them came from just one school, for and against any curious belief emailed the principals of all second- namely Methodist Ladies’ College, a

WA Skeptics President Dr John Happs, Professor Richard Wiseman, and some of this year’s successful entrants — as successful at busting male domination as at busting myths.

Page 46 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 WA Skeptics Awards www.undeceivingourselves.com Helping young people to think critically. prestigious non-government school tions. They were presented on 22 the value of being critical, so what in Perth. Its enthusiasm is easily August 2007 by Professor Richard they had learnt would stay with explained because the driving force Wiseman, eminent skeptic, magi- them. Or as the proverb says, “to do there is Kylie Sturgess, runner-up cian, broadcaster, and holder of is to remember, to listen is to forget”. for the 2006 Australian Skeptics Britain’s only chair in the Public We asked what they liked most Prize for Critical Thinking, and Understanding of Psychology at the and least about being entrants. “It winner of the 2007 Prize. Why the University of Hertfordshire, who was fun finding out”. “People not co- other 229 schools should show no was in Perth as part of Science operating by not answering our enthusiasm is less easily explained. Week. survey”. In 2008 we will email science teach- The presentation was well at- ers, not principals. tended by students, mums, dads, Website However, this limited response and skeptics. It was the first time An offshoot of our Awards, our new was not without advantages because Professor Wiseman had experienced site helps, offering 33 articles from it has allowed us (with Kylie’s a group of secondary students who around the world, showing critical feedback) to fine-tune the details of had entered for awards in critical thinking in action in a fun and the Awards, and thus be better thinking (as opposed to merely entertaining way. It includes a CT prepared for 2008. reading about it), which led to a crash course, details of our Awards, lively exchange with the students the best websites, and more: Topics were diverse: that was appreciated by all. www.undeceivigourselves.com. Year 9students (ages 13-14) chose The presentations had a hidden astrology, cold reading. dumb blonde twist. Before each certificate was Common faults stereotypes, moon landing hoax, presented, a summary of the entry It would of course be wrong to judge UFOs, urban legends, and voodoo. was read out but without the re- young critical writers by the stand- Year 11 students (ages 15-16) chose sults, which the skeptics present ards of adult critical writers. What astrology, crystal therapy, graphol- were invited to predict. The results matters is that they should dig out ogy (twice), ghosts, Murphy’s law, were then compared with their the evidence for and against their ouija boards, palmistry, psychic prediction (which was not always chosen curious belief and then check powers, reincarnation, seances, and right), much to everyone’s delight it with a test or survey of their own tarot cards. since it was a salutary warning devising. That their design or Year 11 entries tended to be more against jumping to conclusions. sample size or arguments fall short laboured than year 9 entries, prob- of world standards is less important ably because of curriculum demands, Points of interest than actually doing something, as but all showed good levels of critical One notable point that arose during opposed to merely talking about it. thinking and good awareness of the exchange, and which was con- Nevertheless there were three where claims could be deceptive. firmed by the mums and dads, was common faults. First was too much Altogether a very good effort to that going in for a WA Skeptics reliance on the internet as a source, warm the hearts of all card-carrying Award engaged the student’s interest and even then not searching thor- Australian cynics. rather more than the usual school oughly, so that some entrants were Ironically the two authors of the project. Our rules require the student unaware that scientific tests of their Murphy’s Law entry (“toast always to include their own test or survey, topic existed. lands butter side down”) experienced and it was this element of personal Second was not including an Murphy’s Law for themselves when mythbusting that attracted their abstract as required by the rules. they went to finish their entry in the interest. Similar findings have been Entries without an abstract (and school library only to find it closed reported by others, for example see this year there were six of them) due to staff illness. Weep & Montgomery “Developing were eligible only for an HM. critical thinking through the study of The final fault was length. Year Results for 2007 paranormal phenomena”, Teaching in 11 entries averaged 6000 words and By unanimous decision of the judges Psychology 25, 275-278, 1998. year 9 entries averaged 3500 words there were three Certificates of The students said their tests and despite our rule “preferably not over Merit and three Honourable Men- surveys had made them appreciate 2000 words”. Length can be due to

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 47 WA Student Awards enthusiasm or class requirements, firmed. To their credit, none of the au- A near miss but it tends to make judging entries thors were blonde. 16 references. One of the entries from year 11 was very time consuming. To be offset in a considerable body of work (nearly 2008 by requiring a comprehensive Honourable Mentions 8000 words) with both a test and a abstract. HM = entry not achieving full merit survey. But the demands of holidays Certificates of Merit status but having a novel feature and music lessons left the authors deserving recognition. with no time to remove obscurities, Like the Duke of Edinburgh Award Crystal therapy: magic or myth? by otherwise it would have received at scheme, ours is not a competition. Emily Aitken and Stephanie Higham in least an HM. It was: All entries achieving merit receive a year 9. The authors gave a quiz about Astrology by Sarah McNutt and Kelli signed certificate. crystals to five MLC science teachers Robertson in year 11. Sun signs were Graphology: can it really reveal your per- and five paranormalists recruited from tested by giving 24 MLC students in sonality? by Nicola Lane and Renee Mao local markets and new age shops. Rea- year 10 (two per sun sign) three sets of in year 9. This project compared extro- sons for believing in crystal therapy 12 unidentified and jumbled-up daily version scores based on a 10-item test were listed, mostly involving various horoscopes for the previous day, each set with a graphological score based on ten “energies” as endorsed by believers, in- from a different website, from which handwriting features said to be related cluding an invented “resculent energy” they had to choose the one that fitted to extroversion such as large writing, (which one paranormalist happily ac- them best. As far as the judges could tell, right slant, and heavy pressure. Results cepted). It was predicted that science the result was 8 hits vs 6 expected by for a total of 18 students in years 8, 11 teachers and paranormalists would have chance, or 4 hits when the signs were and 12 showed that graphology pre- conflicting views, the former being dis- shifted two places back (so Cancer was dicted far fewer extroverts than the per- believers and the latter being believers, now labelled Taurus) as an important sonality test. When judges calculated the which was confirmed by the results. The but seldom-made test of precession. correlation between the extroversion authors started out disbelieving and Choosing was difficult: “There are four and graphology scores (something the ended up just as disbelieving. Their con- here that apply to me” said one student. authors could have done with a $3.99 sci- clusion is that the science teachers’ views “They are all vague and could apply to entific calculator from Woolies), it was - are the more correct. 7 references. anyone, so how am I supposed to 0.07, confirming there was no useful choose?” said another. The authors also Cold reading and psychic ability by correlation. 11 references. gave 30 students in each of years 9-11 a Laura Clarke, Chloe Stevenson, and quiz to check their belief in astrology. An investigation of palmistry by Emily April Goh in year 11. This review in- Year 9 tended to be the more believing. Singleton, Natalya Wren, and Jacinta cluded a critique of John Edward and Innovations included offering chocolate Kotula in year 9. Photocopied the palms his TV programme Crossing Over. The frogs as a reward for completing the test, of five science teachers and compared students made a short video of a (fake) and including boys via one author’s boy- their self-reported personality, health psychic reading and showed it to a total friend as a check on gender effects (ex- and hobbies via an 11-item quiz with of 17 MLC students from years 8, 9 and cept they broke up before it could that derived from their hand features 10, who then completed a quiz about the happen). 6 references. (lines, shape, etc) as given on two palm- video. Did it persuade the students that istry websites. The websites often disa- psychic abilities exist? They tended to greed and neither was accurate, one say no even though half felt the reading A survey of surveys averaging only 55% agreement with the was accurate. 10 references. Most of the entries involved surveys teachers’ responses and the other only of MLC students often with N=100, Skepticism and urban legends by 29%, which suggests that the success which of course represents much Ashleigh Caffey, Holly Godfrey, Shiloh claimed by palmists is largely due to cold effort. But even N=100 is a small Blondel, Teighan Lemmy, and Claire reading and Barnum effects. 10 refer- proportion of MLC’s 750 secondary Pierce in year 11. Eight urban legends ences. students, so we must be cautious. (for example the youngest mother on Nevertheless as they stand the Testing the stereotype that says blonde record is a five-year-old Peruvian girl, various surveys suggest that curious women are dumb by Eleanor St Bernard dogs are bred for food in beliefs are hardly negligible at MLC. Lieberfruend, Emma Penglis, and Ying China) were given to 25 girls from year Thus roughly 10% of the 12-17 age Teo in year 11. The stereotype was tested 10 at Methodist Ladies’ College and 25 group believe in ghosts and ouija by giving an IQ test (disguised as a per- boys from year 10 at Christchurch boards, 20% believe in seances, sonality test) to 40 MLC students in Grammar School recruited via brothers reincarnation, and a moon landing years 9 and 10. There was no real dif- of the authors. Were girls more believ- hoax, 30% believe in astrology, and ference in scores between blondes and ing in these legends than boys? The re- 50% believe in graphology, psychic brown or black-haired students. In year sults showed no difference: in both cases powers and tarot cards. Or at least 9 the blondes scored slightly lower 45% were believers and 30% were unbe- they did before our junior whereas in year 10 they scored slightly lievers. 17 references. higher. So the stereotype was not con- got stuck into them.

Page 48 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Individual results of interest are Psychic ability Graphology given below N=30 males and 30 females in N=50 in years 8-12: years 8-12: Results Handwriting reveals your personality What is a psychic experience? Horoscopes (three surveys) 58% yes, 42% no. Seeing future, accurate readings, etc. N=30 in years 9-11: Graphology gives an accurate reading I have had a psychic experience I plan my day according to star signs 48% yes, 46% no, 6% unsure. F 60% yes, M 20% yes. 8% yes, 69% no, 23% unsure. Ghosts I believe in psychic powers Astrology accurately predicts the future N=10 from each of primary, F 62% yes, M 42% yes. secondary, and post-sec school 9% yes, 57% no, 34% unsure. groups: Why? In decreasing importance: N=50 in years 8-12: I believe in ghosts TV, family, friends, other, media. Can predict personality and events Respectively 30%, 10%, 20% yes. 26% yes, 58% no, 16% unsure. Ouija boards Reincarnation N=30 in years 7-9: I know what my zodiac sign is N=50 in years 8-12: Do you know what an ouija board is? 90% yes, 10% no. Do you know what reincarnation is? 63% yes, 37% no. N=100 in years 8-12: 82% yes. Can ouija boards contact the dead? I believe in horoscopes Do you believe in reincarnation? 10% yes, 27% no, 63% unsure. 44% yes, 56% no. 20% yes. Have you used an ouija board? Horoscopes influence my life Have you been reincarnated? 7% yes, 30% no, 63% unsure. 32% yes, 68% no. 18% yes. Interested in testing an ouija board? I know someone influenced by them Tarot cards 27% yes, 10% no, 63% unsure. 59% yes, 41% no. N=15 each from year 8, year 12, Seances and teachers: Moon landing N=30 in years 8-12: Do you believe in tarot cards? N=52 in year 10: Do you know what a seance is? 60% yes for year 8, 13% for teachers. Humans have landed on the moon 67% yes, 33% no. Have you ever been to a tarot reader? 100% yes. Do you believe in seances? 15% yes (no difference between groups) Video evidence supports a hoax 23% yes, 77% no. Do you believe in fortune telling? 46% yes, 54% no. Have you ever attended one? 86% yes for year 8, 20% for teachers. There is a government coverup of this 10% yes, 90% no. 15% yes, 85% no. Note to Subscribers If your magazine contains an insert headed Renewal Notice, it means your subscription is due for renewal and we ask you to renew it as soon as possible. If there is no insert, there is no need to renew.

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 49 Whimsy Enquiring Minds Want to Know...

Asking the unanswerable ellow Skeptics, as you philoso- Can a stupid person be a smart-arse? questions Fphise, seek the truth, the facts, and debate, please remember that When two planes almost hit each other, some questions in life simply have it is called a ‘near miss.’ Shouldn’t it be no answers! Here is a list I collected called a ‘near hit’? over several years from various sources. And let’s remember, some- If swimming is good for your shape, times the questions we ask are more then why do the whales look the way important than the answers… they do? Williams, Seidel, Saunders, Stollznow… eat your heart out If someone with multiple personalities trying to answer these gems… threatens to kill himself, is it consid- ered a hostage situation?

Why isn’t phonetic spelt the way it What do you do when you see an en- sounds? dangered animal eating an endangered plant? Why are there interstate highways in Hawaii? Why are there Women’s or Children’s specialist hospitals, but no Men’s hos- Why isn’t ‘palindrome’ spelt the same pital? way backwards? I’m always amazed to hear of air crash Shouldn’t there be a shorter word for victims so badly mutilated that they ‘monosyllabic’? have to be identified by their dental records. What I can’t understand is, if Why did Kamikaze pilots wear helmets? they don’t know who you are, how do they know who your dentist is? What is another word for ‘thesaurus’? Why does caregiver and caretaker mean Why doesn’t ‘onomatopoeia’ sound like the same thing? what it is? If you tied buttered toast to the back of Why is it called ‘after dark’, when it is a cat and dropped it from a height, really after light? what would happen?

What was the best thing before sliced Why does an alarm clock ‘go off’ when bread? it begins ringing? Ed Curnow is a long-time subscriber who lives in Balaclava and has too much time on Why are things typed up but written Why is it called a TV set when there’s his hands down? only one?

Page 50 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 If one man says, “it was an uphill bat- If you had x-ray vision but closed your What kind of soup do chickens eat when tle,” and another says, “it went down- eyes, could you still see? they are sick? hill from there,” how could they both be having troubles? Is death the final sleep or the last awak- What would happen if a country de- ening? cided, en masse, to simply not vote in Can blind people be dyslexic when they an election? read Braille? Do radioactive cats have 18 half-lives? What do butterflies get in their stom- How do you handcuff a one-armed If winning isn’t everything, why do they achs when they’re nervous? man? keep score? How wet is water or what is the tem- How come no matter what colour the If you are cross-eyed and dyslexic at the perature of pink? liquid is, the froth is always white? same time, would you see okay? Who do you call if you get a paper cut If it’s zero degrees outside today and it’s Does a 5 o’clock shadow become a 6 from a ‘Get Well’ card? supposed to be twice as cold tomorrow, o’clock shadow during daylight saving? how cold is it going to be? What is the true nature of the relation- Is it partly cloudy or partly clear? ship between Sesame Street’s Bert and We have seagulls; what happened to the Ernie? landgulls? If you had a million Shakespeares, could they write like a monkey? Do you see red as I do? Maybe your red How do you mend a broken heart? is my green, or something completely Is it the Botanic Gardens or the Botani- different from any colour that I can im- If a person owns a piece of land do they cal Gardens? agine. own it all the way down to the core of the earth? Does night follow day, or does day fol- What is the smell of hope? low night? Why is there a light in the fridge and What is the religion in heaven? not in the freezer? Do you get more attention if you’re the youngest child in a family of 5 million Why can’t we say some names in reverse Why does mineral water that has ‘trick- ants? order? Why can’t it be Juliet and led through mountains for centuries’ go Romeo, Eve and Adam, Robin and Bat- out of date next year? On account of their diet, would vegetar- man, Breakfast and Bed or Chips and ians taste better than meat eaters? Fish? Can vampires catch AIDS? Can a one-ended stick exist? Does a male camel think a girl camel’s Can a homeless man be sentenced to humps are sexy? house arrest? We know the speed of light, but what’s the speed of dark? If you have x-ray vision, and you can Can blind people see their dreams? see through anything, wouldn’t you see Would you rather be a girl with a mous- through everything and actually see Why do they sterilise needles for lethal tache or a man with breasts? nothing? injections? Why is there no singular form of braces, The fact that a question can be Is a man full of wonder a wonderful cattle, clothes, pants, pliers, scissors, phrased in a grammatically correct man? shorts, trousers? English sentence doesn’t make it meaningful, or even entitle it to our If you’re in hell and are mad at some- Seagulls eating chicken — cannibal- serious attention! one, where do you tell them to go? ism?

If 75% of all accidents happen within What kind of tie should one wear with Editor’s Note 5km of home, why not move 10km a wet suit? away? I would like to ask the Author: What would happen if you were caught Does someone who lives in (a) Do Siamese twins pay for one ticket or speeding and drunk, but you were driv- Balaclava get arrested every time he two tickets when they go to movies and ing yourself to the hospital with a gun- enters a bank to cash a cheque? concerts? shot wound?

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 51 Musing Space Travel Musings

From science fiction to pace travel is the stuff of science can travel faster than light, but to science fact? Sfiction. We have been fantasis- make this happen would be a physi- ing about travel to other planets, cal and engineering nightmare. worlds and galaxies for at least 100 Therefore, let’s leave “warp speed” years. Seeing space travel as mere out of contention. fantasy, as something possible, probable or impossible, will depend It’s a long way to ... on how one understands and evalu- Interstellar and interplanetary ates the many physical, technologi- distances are huge, really huge. cal, and engineering problems that Astronomers talk in terms must yet be overcome for humans to of parsecs2, but most folk under- travel beyond our own solar system. stand such distances in terms of Some of the problems engendered light-years, the distance travelled in by space travel will be discussed one year by a beam of light moving below, but the main intent of this close to 300,000 kilometers per article is to canvass human issues. I second. If we put it in terms of the use “space travel” here to mean latter units, anywhere that is travel by live humans to some vaguely interesting to visit is a long destination that is beyond our own way off indeed. The nearest object solar system. The discussion is outside our solar system is Alpha constructed in light of what we Centauri at 4.3 light years away. presently understand about the There are a few possibilities for not- physical and technological possibili- too-close inspection within about a ties. Currently, space travel is not dozen light years, but the nearest possible, but it must be acknowl- vaguely Earth-like object we know of edged that in decades or even centu- is in the constellation Upsilon ries to come, an entirely different set Andromedae, at least 44 light years of possibilities might exist. away. After that, the next possibili- For now, let us put aside the ties range between 150 to 450 light questions of building a space ship. years away. But these distances are The first issue is speed. The dis- minuscule in comparison to those we tances to be covered, if the space would have to face for inter-galactic craft is to get anywhere at all, are travel. Once out of our own galaxy, a mind boggling. Star Trek has raised journey of a mere 50 light years or the notion of “warp drives,” but it so, the next small “satellite” galaxy has been shown mathematically that is be 25,000 light years further — warp speeds are sheer fantasy.1 the nearest galaxies similar to our However, in theory, there is a way of own are millions of light years away. Rex Newsome is a retired psychologist from circumventing Einstein’s theory of Assuming it is possible to attain a Brisbane relativity which says that nothing respectable percentage of light-speed

Page 52 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 (well beyond any current or cur- nearby. A fleet of ships multiplies explorer to eschew life on Earth to rently proposed technlogies), clearly the costs. set off into the unknown will have to it is going to be a long and boring be sufficient to motivate them to journey for any space traveller since “What’s in it for us?” self-fund the project. Any space-ship most, if not all of their adult life will This should be asked by those who will have to be crewed largely by be spent merely getting somewhere. must collectively foot the bill for the billionaires satisfied that whatever Having arrived, the likelihood of design, building, and testing of expectations they have will be better surviving long enough to make it space-vehicles. A common theme of than what they would be able to home again would be slim indeed. many articles on the possibility of achieve by staying on Earth. A Even then, if he or she should space travel is exploration to gather possible motive might be to escape survive the trip back, the traveller further knowledge of our universe. certain death if one remained on would be very old — but not as old But do we need to send humans out Earth… wealthy convicted murder- as those left behind — relativity, you to do this? We already have instru- ers perhaps? know. Anything further than a few ments in deep-space sending back light years is certainly not achiev- bucket-loads of information. Surely Technical problems able within the human life-span as it is cheaper to send off a small Out there in space, approaching we know it. Suspended animation package of electronics to wander light-speed, possible problems could be a possibility, but this raises amongst the stars than a space-ship include machinery failure and a whole slew of further problems. full of people? We spend billions on encounters with space debris. Any “What’s in it for the space travel- abstract research of nuclear malfunction will have to be dealt ler?” It could be the chance to colliders, but the cost of research with by onboard technicians, and explore beyond the solar system that using a space-ship of the capabilities there must be full facilities for is our home, or to be the first to set required will be something else. making such repairs. Columbus had foot on another planet. It could also Such a ship and associated costs will shipwrights onboard, but the range be the opportunity to create and be mind bogglingly more expensive of technical skills needed to run a populate a new home for human than a nuclear collider. space-vehicle for 50 years will be beings. The first two are problemati- There is one big drawback, the many orders greater than a few cal, given that the travellers are delay between initiation of the probe chippies and sail-makers. adult at blast-off, and expect to and the results. By and large, All technicians present will have spend the rest of their lives in the scientists and the funding body want to be mindful that their skills will confines of the space vehicle with no results in a much shorter time-frame have to be passed on, which raises option of ever leaving until reaching than human space exploration could the question of the number of the destination. For those who look provide. Funding bodies, usually personnel that must be on board to for scientific fame or to be another government agencies, need tangible guarantee this. A great number of Armstrong, the wait for recognition payoffs, or the possibility of seeing male and female personnel would will be a long one for it will only such within the span of their work- have to be onboard to guarantee a come many years after lift-off and ing-life. Reports from distant planets stable complement of technical the ‘New Worlders’ will need walking which take 100 years to obtain will skills. There would also have to be sticks even before the first flag is hardly excite any government who facilities to raise and train children. struck. will certainly be in oblivion long This suggests that the team would For any such honour, intrepid before any result emerged. have to be sizable indeed, and travellers will have a lot to endure The same will go for any scientist, likewise, the ship. during the trip. Space-ships will no or indeed, for any civilisation that With a large number of people on doubt always be very cramped and supports those scientists. A further board there will be little room for noisy. Also, if they should be moving negative will be the uncertain incompatible personalities (certainly away from Earth at near light- probability of ever getting a report no room for convicted murderers), or speed, there will be little contact back, or that if it does arrive, that it for psychological instabilities. This with Earth. Any messages sent from will provide worthwhile information. will be the ultimate ‘Big Brother’ a ship at a distance of light years What’s in it for us’, in a nutshell, situation. We have solved this for must cover that distance to get would seem to be ‘nothing much at submariners, in their case the back. Responses from Earth would all.’ ‘To satisfy general curiosity maximum extent of confinement is a have to chase the ship moving away about a small part of our galaxy’ matter of months, but the space ship at near light speed until almost the hardly qualifies as justification for confinement will be a virtual life- end of the journey when the ship funding such an expensive space- time for most on board. finally slows down. Should anything vehicle launch. It is possible that the control of untoward happen on the journey Considering all the difficulties the ship, once on its way, could be there will be no possibility of obtain- and drawbacks, one must conclude left completely to an auto-pilot. One ing help except from another ship that whatever would excite a space hazard for the craft, whether con-

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 53 trolled by human or computer, would cial gravity can be provided while at least 90 years before the space probe be space debris. A near light-speed cruising speed, any humans on could get there, do its job, and for encounter with even a pea-sized board will suffer significant loss of the information to come back. We meteorite would be disastrous. A bone density (At 1g it will take have indications of the possible shield travelling some way in front nearly a year to reach light speed, existence of Earth-type planets, but could offer some protection, but any and another year to slow down). Mir specific information would be re- human piloting would seem out of astronauts have already discovered quired to enable these possibilities the question. A car driver needs at that even a few months of weight- to be clearly elucidated. For exam- least three seconds to respond to an lessness can be debilitating. It may ple, what would be the likelihood of unexpected obstruction ahead on the be that after 44 years there would be finding a planet hospitable for road. For a space pilot, three seconds little bone strength left to withstand humans? If it turns out to be unsuit- represents a distance ahead of about any physical exertion at all. More able for colonisation, is there a likely a million kilometres. Spotting a pea serious perhaps would be the effects alternative nearby? Is water avail- a million kilometres away and that zero or low gravity might have able? Could it be mined for miner- computing a possible collision is for any pregnancies that occur als? Only then, given a favourable quite a demand of either human or during the trip, and then again, for report, could the required space computer! any growing children after that. ship, its crew, and provisions be There are also other hazards to That the Earth’s pull is a determin- properly dimensioned. It would be extended space travel besides ing factor in human genesis and unthinkable to spend 44 years, or mechanical trouble and space debris, ontological processes is still to be even many generations going no- such as radiation. Data collected by determined, but it does seem likely where in particular! NASA show that astronauts on the to be the case. Spinning the space So our intrepid travellers arrive international space station are ship on is axis Star Wars style might after 40 or so years. Some will be subjected to about 1 millisievert of be a way out, but this multiplies the very young, some will be very old radiation per day, about a year’s task of constructing the ship sub- and infirm, some will have Alzheim- worth on Earth. Outside the Earth’s stantially, and it would most cer- er’s, and some will have the burden protective magnetic shield, the tainly not be something that could of having to set up life on this new exposure will rise dramatically. We be constructed and flown from a world. We can only speculate as to are not certain as to how this inter- base on Earth itself. what sort of people they might be stellar radiation would affect a Yet another problem to be solved after so long in the confines of a human body, but it will be well is food. The supply would have to be space-ship, what their comprehen- above the upper limits experts agree sufficient for at least 50 years. Re- sion might be of life on a new world, to as being safe, even for short cycling (even of corpses!) plus the and what sort of new world it might periods. Unless extensive shielding use of nuclear energy to energise be. Would they survive? Would we is provided for space travellers, food production provides some even care? Should we care? many deaths could be expected over possibilities, but the final solution a prolonged trip. There is also a could be some way off. References question of genetic damage. If travellers expect to colonise another What is to be the destination? 1 Eugenie Samuel, 2002,The Truth planet, will the progeny be healthy, This will have to be precisely deter- About Warp Drive, New Scientist, or even forthcoming? mined before planning could even Issue 2334. start. The information required 2. One parsec is defined as the A matter of gravity would have to be determined by an distance from the Earth to a star that Some g-forces may be experienced unmanned space-probe. Assuming has a parallax of 1 arcsecond; it is during acceleration and decelera- the closest target to be 44 light years approximately 3.262 light-years. tion, but unless some form of artifi- away, we would have to wait for at See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parsec The 2008 Skeptics Convention will be in Adelaide. Dates and Venue to be Announced

Page 54 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Article Circumcision Facts Trump Anti-circ Fiction

A medical perspective on a arely in my life have I read such a surgical ‘vaccine’ against a wide contentious issue Runscholarly poppycock (a good variety of adverse medical conditions word, given the subject matter) as in males. These include physical the article by David Vernon in the problems such as phimosis that Spring issue of the Skeptic (pp 28- affects 10% of uncircumcised men, 31). Vernon, a freelance writer and dermatological problems that are former public servant with degrees also common, urinary tract infec- in , economics and tions (seen in 2–5% of uncircumcised law, is hardly well-placed to write on infants), sexually transmitted circumcision. He seems to have infections (human immunodeficiency scoured the internet and been duped virus [HIV], human papillomavirus by the propaganda of various anti- [HPV], syphilis and chancroid that circumcision organisations found are all many-fold higher in uncir- therein, rather than attempting to cumcised men), sexual problems, get a grasp of the abundant medical especially with age, problems in evidence arising from good research geriatric patients, and killer dis- studies published in reputable eases such as cancer of the prostate international journals. He presents and penis (these affecting, respec- anecdotes rather than science and tively, 1 in 4 and 1 in 600 uncircum- tries to draw a connection between cised men). quotes from ancient religious texts Circumcision also protects a and erroneous statements about man’s sexual partners from HPV circumcision. Vernon is either quite infection that causes cervical can- gullible or a representative of the cer2, another disease that kills. anti-circumcision movement. His Genital herpes is twice as high for words do not belong in a magazine women with uncircumcised that purports to present rational partner(s)3, and Chlamydia infection argument, logic and factual informa- is 5.6 times higher. The latter can tion. Not surprisingly he confesses to lead to pelvic inflammatory disease, being uncircumcised! infertility and pelvic pain.4 So what are the facts? It is now This is all a high price to pay for well established by hundreds of retention of the foreskin and not research studies, many of which are considered often enough when a referenced in my large peer-re- baby boy is born. Brian J. Morris is Professor of Molecular viewed review article published in Medical Sciences at the School of Medical the major international journal Condoms Sciences and Bosch Institute, The University BioEssays1 and in my internet Vernon reckons condoms provide of Sydney. review (www.circinfo.net) that, over 99% protection against HIV. He is [email protected] the lifetime, circumcision represents wrong. The protection is 80–90% if

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 55 Circumcision Facts always used.5 Condoms are not that women vastly prefer the cir- use of highly emotive nonsensical infallible, nor used universally, cumcised penis for oral sex.10 In fact comparisons in his opening state- especially amongst the most sexu- improved penile hygiene is a major ments. However, the reality is that ally active and promiscuous groups, reason for circumcision, the uncir- circumcision can be almost com- the young, in whom risk-taking is cumcised penis being regarded by pletely pain-free by, for example, the part of their psyche. Condoms do 88% as unclean and infected with use of the technique developed by Dr not, moreover, protect during fore- micro-organisms.11 Not only is it Terry Russell, AOM, in Brisbane, who play when the inner prepuce (the difficult to achieve penile hygiene in has performed 20,000 circumcisions site of entry of HIV into the male uncircumcised men, attempting to using his ‘no scalpel’ (Plastibell) during heterosexual sex) may come do so can result in dermatological procedure after application of an into contact with infected fluids. In problems. Parents, moreover, will anaesthetic cream (EMLA) contrast, circumcision is once only, obviously find it easier to keep their (www.circumcision.com.au). Adverse so needs no application for each son’s penis clean if it is circumcised. events occur in only 1 in 500 infant sexual encounter, is permanent, and In men in London, where circum- circumcisions; these are virtually all when coupled with condom use cision rate is much higher than the minor and easily and immediately should virtually guarantee complete figures Vernon quotes for the entire treatable. In Russells’ experience, the protection against HIV infection. UK, 26% of uncircumcised, but only only potentially serious complication Alarmingly, however, 10 studies in 4% of circumcised men, exhibited was a reaction to the anaesthetic in Africa found no association between inferior genital hygiene behaviour.12 one boy, but this resolved overnight condom use and reduced HIV It is likely that contributing factors without medical intervention. infection. In fact, in one, condom use were medical conditions that im- A circumcised penis is not only was associated with higher HIV peded retraction of the prepuce for cleaner and easier to take care of, infection!6 Moreover, condoms offer washing. Thirty seven percent of the women find it cosmetically prefer- little protection against transmis- circumcised men, but only 19% of able according to a reputable re- sion of HPV to a woman. In one the uncircumcised men, washed search study by Williamson & study, published in the world’s top more than once per day. Williamson.10 This included women medical journal, monogamous My calculations (published in Aus who had only ever had uncircum- women were at 5.6-fold increased NZ J Publ Hlth13 and BioEssays1) cised partners. Vernon tries to risk of HPV infection if they had an show that the lifetime risk of a male discredit this study, but then praises uncircumcised, as opposed to a having an adverse condition requir- another by the lay anti-circ activists circumcised male partner, who in ing medical attention is 1 in 3. This O’Hare & O’Hare, who stated in each case had had six or more represents an enormous number of their paper that it was a “prelimi- previous partners.2 Since the typical males. Many die because of having a nary” survey of women “recruited Australian man is reported to have foreskin. Such a high risk really through … an announcement in an approximately 20 sexual partners does mandate circumcision for all anti-circumcision newsletter”.16 before ‘settling down’ the risk to newborns, and is something that O’Hare & O’Hare acknowledged this women posed by lack of circumcision should be seriously considered by “shortcoming”. They also state “this is enormous. men of all ages. study has some obvious methodologi- In contrast to the figures Vernon cal flaws” and that “it is important Hygiene quotes, the true rate of circumcision that these findings be confirmed by Vernon seems to think that hygiene in the USA was shown in a recent a prospective study of a randomly under the foreskin can be main- representative study by the US selected population of women.” Thus tained by soap and water. This is not Centers for Disease Control (CDC) bias arising from the seriously supported by the evidence. Bacterial to be 88% in whites, 73% in blacks, flawed study design causes O’Hare counts show that in uncircumcised 42% in Mexican-Americans and 50% & O’Hare’s work to lack credibility, schoolboys hygiene is difficult to in others (79% overall).14 A recent meaning it should be ignored. achieve.7,8 Of course, in uncircum- large survey of Australian-born men Moreover, others as well have cised men failure to wash under the found a circumcision rate of 69%, obtained findings that are the foreskin after intercourse, rather although only 32% in those aged 16– complete opposite, eg, in one study than dozing off, means an increase 20.15 The rate is rising worldwide in that found a preference by women in risk of infection by various STIs. line with the messages from re- for the circumcised man the re- Under the foreskin one finds foul- search findings. spondents remarked that circum- smelling smegma, a whitish film cised men enter the woman more that consists of sweat, shed skin Low-risk procedure easily and cause less trauma.17 cells, dirt and bacteria that together It should be realised that circumci- To illustrate this lack of credibil- form aggregates. Smegma increases sion is a simple, low-risk procedure in ity, when Waskett and I reanalysed through adolescence to a peak at age experienced hands. Vernon tries to the data from penile sensitivity 20–40.9 It is hardly surprising then whip up an emotional reaction by his ‘research’ by anti-circ activists of

Page 56 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 penile sensitivity we found that National Health and Social Life caused by ‘sand and dust’, Vernon their claim of higher sensitivity of Survey, involving over 1400 men,26 cites an article by Robert Darby, an the tip of the foreskin of the flaccid and in an Australian survey of 16– anti-circ activist. Darby’s claims penis could not be supported.18 60 year-olds.15 The problems in the stemming from ‘medical records’ ‘he There have been quite a number of uncircumcised included pain at any analyzed’ are false. Infections, mainstream research studies of age and erectile dysfunction in 27% initiated by the aggravation of dirt penile sensitivity and the like over aged > 50.15 In contrast, the research and sand, are not uncommon under the years and if one reads these they found that circumcised men had desert conditions, and have even will come to the conclusion that more liberal attitudes15 and enjoyed crippled whole armies of uncircum- there is really no difference in a more elaborate sexual lifestyle.26 cised soldiers. It is difficult to sensitivity between each type of One reason no doubt relates to achieve sanitation during prolonged penis (for refs see: www.circinfo.net). women’s preference for the circum- battle. To contradict Darby, and In fact the much more important cised penis for sexual activity, thus Vernon, a US Army report by issue of sensation during sexual appearance and hygiene.10,20,26 General Patton stated that in World arousal was thoroughly examined Males in higher socio-economic- War II 150,000 soldiers were hospi- for the first time and reported on educational categories have higher talised for foreskin problems due to this year.19 The authors found rates of circumcision.10,26 This class inadequate hygiene.28 To quote: sensation was the same for each divide will further escalate after “Time and money could have been category of penis. This study also recent decisions by governments in saved had prophylactic circumcision found, not surprisingly, that sensi- the southern states of Australia to been performed before the men tivity decreases during arousal. This no longer permit elective circumci- were shipped overseas” and “Be- is a necessary requisite for inter- sion in the public hospital system. cause keeping the foreskin clean course to occur. Interestingly, in was very difficult in the field, many contrast to speculative ramblings of Religious issues soldiers with only a minimal ten- anti-circ proponents, the unaroused I have no problem with Vernon’s dency toward phimosis were likely penis of uncircumcised men had a attacks on religion, and, like most to develop balanoposthitis”.28 The lower temperature measured by the readers of the Skeptic am with story was similar in Iraq during thermal imaging utilised in this Richard Dawkins when it comes to ‘Desert Storm’ in the early study, ie, appeared less sensitive. this topic.27 It is easy to use reli- 1990s.29,30 In the Vietnam War men gious quotes as Vernon does to requested circumcision to avoid Sexual dysfunction dismiss religion. But perhaps some “jungle rot”. Erectile function scores were un- deeper thought should have gone Another myth used by Vernon is changed after circumcision of adult into the matter of circumcision. One one promoted by anti-circ groups, men.20 And, in a study of 500 couples should ask why circumcision of boys namely that circumcision was in the USA, UK, Netherlands, Spain is practiced by virtually all cultures popular in the Victorian era as a and Turkey, time from insertion to from hot and equatorial regions — cure for masturbation. In reality ejaculation were no different (6.7 vs not just the Middle east, but abo- this was not a common belief in 6.0 min in circumcised vs uncircum- riginal Australia, the Pacific Is- those days. Yes, masturbation was cised men, respectively).21 In fact lands, various Asian countries (both regarded as ‘bad’ back then and there is no association between Muslim and Christian), most occupies much of the early 20th circumcision status and failure to African tribes, central America, etc. Century book Youth and Sex.31 enjoy sex.22,23 It would appear that the health However, despite circumcision being Vernon has dredged up the most benefit derived from removal of the quite common in Victorian times, awful research to support his claims. foreskin became known through this book does not mention the use His reference to the Korean study by practical experience of foreskin- of circumcision as a ‘cure’ for mas- Kim & Pang24 is a case in point. This related problems in diverse peoples turbation at all!31 A well-known book is perhaps the worst article to ever and then became ritualised as part on circumcision written by Felix find its way into print in a medical of their culture, and thence various Bryke completely discounts any journal. Even the title is wrong, religions. So the edict to circumcise notion of circumcision as a cure for confusing ‘sexuality’ with sexual conferred an advantage to these masturbation.32 Whitla’s Dictionary activity or pleasure. It has been people. Today, we know well the of Treatment does not list ‘circumci- castigated by Dr Robin Willcourt, an enormous public health benefits sion’, and, under ‘masturbation’, one obstetrican from Adelaide whose and can leave religion out of it! finds a suggestion about performing critique was published in the same Especially in the Skeptic one needs circumcision only if the cause is journal.25 to stick to scientific arguments. irritation from a tight prepuce.33 That uncircumcised men are more In attempting to ridicule the But, consistent with current medical likely to experience sexual dysfunc- notion that circumcision arose in knowledge, the Victorians recog- tions was shown in both the US the Middle East to solve problems nised that circumcision was able to

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 57 Circumcision Facts prevent phimosis, penile cancer, the early health benefits. Given that community for this source of sexual syphilis and other STIs. there is no long-term downside, yet pleasure for them. Thus we find massive benefits to be had from there is a use for the foreskin! Emotion v science circumcision in infancy, failure to Parents take note! The sort of emotive arguments circumcise at this time might easily Unlike the anti-circ movement, prevalent on anti-circumcision be deemed child neglect. Just as scientists generally adopt a utilitar- internet sites, are not supported by failure to immunise. ian meta-ethical viewpoint, in which current scientific evidence. What Unlike science, which is based on the construct system is modifiable remains is nebulous, convoluted a utilitarian, meta-ethical analysis, by change in the net evidence, ie, legalistic discourses such as consent the anti-circ arguments start from a they remain objective. or ‘human rights’ issues, which can deontological (moral absolutionist) For an exposé of the anti-circum- be similarly levelled against vaccina- position, meaning that, just as cision movement and psychiatric tion (also the target of extremist religion, they prohibit any compro- aspects associated with many in it nonsense) and other interventions mise. Thus the abundant, high see www.circinfo.net/ that are in the best interests of quality research that disagrees with anti_circumcision_lobby_groups.html infants and children. their position is deemed by them to Therefore, to conclude, David The anti-circumcision movement be flawed. One finds that the refer- Vernon’s article is utter twaddle. is itself more like a religious cult in ences the anti-circs use to support Circumcision is now mandated by a its devotion to the preservation of their claims are deceptive. One of massive body of epidemiological and the foreskin at any cost and its the most published of the anti-circs, biological evidence. In fact, the rejection of scientific evidence Robert Van Howe, from , poorly researched, highly biased and concerning the benefits of circumci- uses statistical games to discredit nonsensical article by Vernon, meta- sion. Essential tenets of the cult are good peer-reviewed scientific stud- phorically speaking, takes us back- that the foreskin is infallible and ies. Every one of his publications has wards in time to the 11th Century must be vigorously defended. They been discredited in follow-up cri- (the Dark Ages) and should be emphasise that it is best to leave the tiques published in the same jour- disregarded for the tripe that it is. foreskin alone ‘as nature intended’, nals — as a few recent examples believing that Nature makes no show.18, 34-36 mistakes. (Of course, cancer and Another false claim is that doctors References infectious diseases are also natural!) who do circumcisions are part of an 1. Morris BJ. Why circumcision is a They say that since all parts of the “industry” with profit as the only biomedical imperative for the 21st body are perfect in design, newborn motive. (If true, this charge could be Century. BioEssays. 2007;29:1147- circumcision must be inherently levelled at all health professionals!) 1158. Another ridiculous claim is that wrong. Another false assertion is 2. Castellsague X, Bosch FX, Munoz circumcised men are sexually and that it is equivalent to female N, Meijer CJLM, Shah KV, de psychologically damaged, but don’t genital mutilation. (In reality the Sanjose S, Eluf-Neto J, Ngelangel realise it, or are in denial. Men latter is the equivalent of cutting off CA, Chichareon S, Smith JS, Herrero the penis!) successfully duped into believing R, Franceschi S. Male circumcision, The anti-circs also say, as Vernon that their sexual problems stem penile human papillomavirus infec- parrots, that circumcision is a from their circumcision are advised tion, and cervical cancer in female violation of human rights. This is to contact the group, so serving to partners. N Engl J Med. rubbish. In western countries, a promote the cult and increase its 2002;346:1105-1112. parent has the legal right to decide membership. in favour of the circumcision of their One well-known anti-circ activist, 3. Cherpes TL, Meyne LA, Krohn baby boy, just as parents have the Paul Fleiss, MD, from Los Angeles, MA, Hiller SL. Risk factors for right to choose to have their children is a felon convicted of money laun- infection with herpes simplex virus vaccinated, educated, disciplined, dering for a prostitution racket. type 2: Role of smoking, douching, etc. Vernon suggests, as do some Although foreskin fetishism and uncircumcised males, and vaginal anti-circs, that circumcision be paedophilia are the motivating flora. Sex Transm Dis. 2003;30:405- delayed until ‘he is an adult’, ne- factors for some of the anti-circs, 410. glecting to mention that the higher certain others are naïve ‘do-gooders’ 4. Castellsague X, Peeling RW, cost (beyond the budget of most of the ‘politically-correct’ latté set, Franceschi S, de Sanjose S, Smith young men), a cosmetic outcome that whilst certain subgroups in the gay JS, Albero G, Diaz M, Herrero R, includes a visible scar from stitches community desire the foreskin for a Munoz N, Bosch FX. Chlamydia needed at that time, the inconven- sexual practice known as ‘docking’. trachomatis infection in female ience, higher risk (minor complica- Their vigorous opposition to circum- partners of circumcised and uncir- tions in 1–3% compared with the cision helps ensure a continuous cumcised adult men. Am J 0.2% in infants) and loss of many of supply of foreskinned males in the Epidemiol. 2005;162:907-916.

Page 58 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 5. Halperin DT, Steiner MJ, Cassell sion in Australia: prevalence and prophyactic effects, and sexual MM, Green EC, Hearst N, Kirby D, effects on sexual health. Int J STD practice. J Am Med Assoc. Gayle HD, Cates W. The time has AIDS. 2006;17:547-554. 1997;277:1052-1057. come for common ground on prevent- 16. O’Hara K, O’Hara J. The effect 27. Dawkins R. The God Delusion: ing sexual transmission of HIV. of male circumcision on the sexual Bantam Books; 2006. Lancet. 2004;364:1913-1915. enjoyment of the female. BJU Int. 28. Patton JF. Urology. In United 6. Slaymaker E. A critique of interna- 1999;83(suppl 1):93-102. States Army Surgery in World War II. tional indicators of sexual risk 17. Bailey RC, Muga R, Poulussen R, Office of the Surgeon General and behaviour. Sex Transm Infect. Abicht H. The acceptability of male Center of Military History. (See pages 2004;80(Suppl 2):ii13-ii21. circumcision to reduce HIV infections 52, 64, 100, 120, 121, 145, 146, 183, 7. Kalcev B. Circumcision and in Nyanza Province, Kenya. AIDS 488); 1987. personal hygiene in school boys. Med Care. 2002;14:27-40. 29. Schoen EJ. Male circumcision. Officer. 1964;112:171-173. 18. Waskett JH, Morris BJ. Fine- In: Kandeel FR, Lue TF, Pryor JL, et 8. Oster J. Further fate of the fore- touch pressure thresholds in the al., eds. Male Sexual Dysfunction. skin: incidence of preputial adhe- adult penis. BJU Int. 2007;99:1551- Pathophysiology and Treatment. New sions, phimosis and smegma among 1552. York: Informa; 2007:95-107. Danish schoolboys. Arch Dis Child. 19. Payne K, Thaler L, Kukkonen T, 30. Gardner AMN. Circumcision and 1968;43:200-203. Carrier S, Binik Y. Sensation and sand. J Roy Soc Med. 1991;84:387. 9. Wright J. How smegma serves the sexual arousal in circumcised and 31. Scharlieb M, Silby FA. Youth and penis? Sexology. 1970;37:50-53. uncircumcised men. J Sex Med. Sex. Dangers and Safeguards for 10. Williamson ML, Williamson PS. 2007;4:667-674. Girls and Boys. London: Dodge Women’s preferences for penile 20. Masood S, Patel HRH, Himpson Publishing Co.; 1913. circumcision in sexual partners. J Sex RC, Palmer JH, Mufti GR, Sheriff 32. Bryk F. Circumcision in Man and Educ Hlth. 1988;14:8-12. MKM. Penile sensitivity and sexual Woman — Its History, Psychology and 11. Oh S-J, Kim KD, Kim KM, Kim satisfaction after circumcision: are we Ethnology. (Die Beschneidung bei KS, Kim KK, Kim JS, Kim HG, Woo informing men correctly? Urol Int. Mann und Weib), pp. 174-177. New YN, Yoon YL, Lee SD, Han SW, Lee 2005;75:62-66. York: American Ethnological Press; SI, Choi H. Knowledge and attitudes 21. Waldinger MD, Quinn P, Dilleen 1882. of Korean parents towards their son’s M, Mundayat R, Schweitzer DH, 33. Whitla W. A Dictionary of circumcision: a nationwide question- Boolell M. A multinational population Treatment — Including Medical and naire study. BJU Int. 2002;89:426- survey of intravaginal ejaculation Surgical Therapeutics. 50th ed. 432. latency time. J Sex Med. 2005;2:492- London: Bailli’ere, Tindall and Cox; 12. O’Farrell N, Quigley M, Fox P. 497. 1912. Association between the intact 22. Collins S, Upshaw J, Rutchik S, 34. Waskett J, Morris BJ. Re: ‘RS foreskin and inferior standards of Ohannessian C, Ortenberg J, Van Howe, FM Hodges. The male genital hygiene behaviour: a Albertsen P. Effects of circumcision carcinogenicity of smegma: debunk- cross-sectional study. Int J STD on male sexual function: Debunking a ing a myth. J Eur Acad Dermatol AIDS. 2005;16:556-559. myth? J Urol. 2002;167:2111-2112. Venereol 2006;20:1046-1054’ — an 13. Morris BJ, Bailis SA, 23. Fink KS, Carson CC, deVellis RF. example of myth— and mythchief- Castellsague X, Wiswell TE, Halperin Adult circumcision outcomes study: making? (Letter to the Editor). J Eur DT. RACP’s policy statement on Effect on erectile function, penile Acad Dermatol Venereol. 2007(ac- infant male circumcision is ill- sensitivity, sexual activity and cepted 13/03/07: Aug/Sep issue). conceived. Aust NZ J Publ Hlth. satisfaction. J Urol. 2002;167:2113- 35. Castellsague X, Albero G, Cleries 2006;30:16-22. 2116. R, Bosch FX. HPV and circumcision: 14. Xu F, Markowitz LE, Sternberg 24. Kim D, Pang MG. The effect of A biased, inaccurate and misleading MR, Aral SO. Prevalence of circumci- male circumcision on sexuality. BJU meta-analysis. J Infect. 2007, 55:91- sion and herpes simplex virus type 2 Int. 2007;99:1169-1170. 93. infection in men in the : 25. Willcourt R. Comment on: The 36. Schoen EJ. Critique of Van Howe the National Health and Nutrition effect of male circumcision on sexual- RS. Incidence of meatal stenosis Examination Survey (NHANES), ity. BJU Int. 2007;99:619-22. BJU following neonatal circumcision in a 1999-2004.. Sex Trans Dis. Int. 2007;99:1169-1170. primary care setting. Clin Pediatr 2007;34:479-484. 26. Laumann EO, Maal CM, (Phila) 2006;45:49-54. Clin Paeiatr 15. Richters J, Smith AM, de Visser Zuckerman EW. Circumcision in the (Phila). 2007;46:86. RO, Grulich AE, Rissel CE. Circumci- United States. Prevalence,

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 59 Forum Forum To Snip or Not to Snip

Rights and informed consent relation to male circumcision invoke International Law also recognises basic issues of human rights. Funda- the right of people to cultural mental to this recognition is an development. The International understanding that this is a minor Covenant on Economic, Social and David Maddison procedure of little or no medical Cultural Rights3 states: Toorak VIC consequence to the subject. Despite All peoples have the right of self-deter- claims by those who are opposed to mination. By virtue of that right they circumcision that the male foreskin avid Vernon (the Skeptic 27:3) freely determine their political status is a vital part of the anatomy, there writes passionately in his and freely pursue their economic, social D is no proven scientific evidence that opposition to male circumcision but and cultural development. its removal has any profound nega- fails to recognise several important The UN Convention on the Rights tive effect and no scientific evidence points. of the Child articles also support a of harm to groups which have been Firstly, there are valid medical right to culturally or religiously practising this tradition for thou- reasons for male circumcision. The based practises. Article 8 states: sands of years. Indeed, nearly all Royal Australasian College of “Parties undertake to respect the peer-reviewed evidence demon- Physicians say in their brochure right of the child to preserve his or strates a positive, or at least neutral that it should not be routine but her identity” and Article 14 states: outcome in support of its removal. In advise that parents should be “Parties shall respect the right of the contrast, clearly one would not provided with all relevant facts and child to freedom of thought, con- support any culture or religion that, allowed to make their own deci- science and religion…” for example, demanded the removal sions1. Secondly, aesthetic reasons It can therefore be seen that of an arm or child sacrifice and such are just that. It is natural to have an International Law recognises both a belief would be unsupportable for expectation that a son would be like the protection of children against any reason. his father. abuse (such as the denial of male Presumably anti-circumcisionists Thirdly, religious and cultural circumcision) and provides them with are not opposed to consensual adult reasons cannot be ignored. The a right to a cultural and religious male circumcision but that of chil- American Academy Of Pediatrics2 identity. As male circumcision is at dren. One must therefore consider cite that the practice of medicine has: least a cultural practice for Jews, whether international human rights Moslems and other groups it must be long respected an adult’s right to self- law supports the circumcision of supported by International Law. determination in health care decision- male children. Whilst there is no expectation making. This principle has been Article 19 of the UN Convention that a parent with no tradition of operationalised through the doctrine of on the Rights of the Child4 states: informed consent. The process… obli- male circumcision should practice it gates the physician to… enumerate the Parties shall take all appropriate leg- on their child it is certainly reason- risks, benefits, and alternatives for the islative, administrative, social and edu- able for, say, Jewish parents, to have patient to make an informed choice. For cational measures to protect the child their son circumcised in accordance infants and young children who lack from all forms of physical or mental with the tenants of that faith. To not the capacity to decide for themselves… violence, injury or abuse… do so would be traumatic for both a parent, must make such choices… it Since there is no scientific evi- the parents and the child when it is legitimate for the parents to take into dence that male circumcision is was old enough to understand its account cultural, religious, and ethnic significantly harmful — and it is predicament. It would also be a traditions, in addition to medical fac- arguably beneficial — there can be violation of the medical doctrine of tors, when making this choice. no question that prohibiting circum- informed consent and the rights of Any recognition of the doctrine of cision is a form of abuse against parents to make decisions for their informed consent and cultural, those cultural or religious groups child. One might also assume that a religious and ethnic traditions in that practise it. child born into a religion or culture

Page 60 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 requiring male circumcision would rationalisations which are used by hygiene matters . We had to work have a “future expectation” that they proponents of this practice. things out for and amongst ourselves. should be circumcised as an infant. In about 1954 I was taken to a We didn’t always get it right, though. The failure of a parent to do so paediatrician because I had put on a When one of our mates, whose would cause much harm to the child lot of weight (and was also biting my parents were more “open” about who will grow up being different nails). The doctor prescribed a diet, these things, told us his mother said from their peer group and in a vast but failed to detect that the main he’d come out between her legs, we majority of cases would still elect to reason for my weight gain was that I dismissed this as ridiculous and be circumcised later, at an age when was very unhappy. He did, however, totally impossible! But circumcision it would be considerably more advise my mother that I ought to be was never an issue and I never heard traumatic than as an infant. circumcised as, if this were not done, anyone complain about the practice. Male circumcision has no signifi- I might not be able to father chil- Well, not until now! cant deleterious medical effects and dren. On being informed of this I told I can recall, during my reasonably is protected by international law. To my mother in no uncertain terms long life, only two situations which prohibit it is a violation of human that I refused to be circumcised. ever came to my notice on this topic. rights, a violation of a person’s right I am still membro intacto, and am The first was that of an American to self-determination and a violation the father of two daughters (aged 22 who was suing his parents for the of their rights and responsibilities as and 19). pain he suffered as a result of the parents. If grown adults want to have operation. The other was that of a themselves circumcised, tattooed or good friend who, in his 70s, was References pierced, well, that is their choice. (I circumcised due to an infection. 1) Brochure on circumcision available at have had a vasectomy, for example.) Quite frankly, I think your writer www.racp.edu.au/ But inflicting circumcision on a (and others) are making too much of index.cfm?objectid=A4254F55-2A57- baby, as David Vernon rightly points the so-called rights of a child. 5487-DFE129631BCB4C59 See also out, is assault by mutilation and a Parents have the right to decide and position statement on circumcision on denial of the healthy child’s right to make decisions regarding many same web page. (Accessed 26 Nov 2007.) bodily integrity. things, on behalf of their offspring. 2) See the American Academy of Circumcision of boys and genital These range from the drastic deci- Pediatrics Circumcision Policy Statement mutilation of girls should go into the sions to abort, or cut-off life sup- at aappolicy.aappublications.org/cgi/ content/full/pediatrics%3b103/3/686 also dustbin of history with foot binding, ports, to matters of discipline and Pediatrics Vol. 103 No. 3 March 1999, pp. castrato singers, using rings to myriads of others. 686-693. This position was reaffirmed in create “giraffe” necks, and knocking I don’t have a problem with the September 2005. out healthy front teeth. current non-circumcision regime. 3) United Nations International Cov- However, I consider that parents enant on Economic, Social and Cultural should be able to decide one way or Rights, Adopted and opened for signa- the other on this subject without ture, ratification and accession by What’s the problem? being ostracised. If they decide to General Assembly resolution 2200A (XXI) have their boy circumcised, whether of 16 December 1966 entry into force 3 for cultural, hygiene or any other January 1976, in accordance with article Alex Blair reason, it is their prerogative and 27. www.unhchr.ch/html/menu3/b/ not up to others to make a judge- a_cescr.htm Cairns QLD ment. Labelling the practice as 4) UN Convention on the Rights of the “mutilation”, by those who have had Child www.ohchr.org/english/law/pdf/ no personal experience of it, smacks crc.pdf was born in the 1930s when boys Iwere routinely circumcised soon of the “we know what’s good for you” after birth. After reading David syndrome too prevalent today. Vernon’s article on the subject I had Another aspect of this subject is Mutilation to ask myself “What’s the problem?” I covered by Jill Margot in her excel- have never considered myself as lent book, Man Maintenance, under being “mutilated,” nor that my the heading “Foreskins — They can Nigel Sinnott, parents exceeded their rights in this go a long way”. I wish I could quote matter. I can’t recall seeing anyone the whole section, however, the Sunshine West VIC else during my sporting days who following quotes might tempt some wasn’t circumcised and it was never a to look into this further: would like to congratulate David topic of conversation amongst us as One foreskin can go a long way. Re- IVernon on his article, “Circumci- boys or young men. This was in the searchers in Sydney have found a sion Myths”, which comprehensively days when we received no informa- method of making one young foreskin covers the special pleading and tion from anyone regarding sexual or expand into enough skin to cover fifty

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 61 Forum

adult bodies. Australian site is Circumcision parent of a male child, thinking of Later in the article a doctor is Information Australia at having their son circumcised for quoted as saying that now, in one www.circinfo.org, and Circumcision health reasons, is put off doing so by foreskin, there’s potential to produce Information and Resource Pages David Vernon’s anti-circumcision enough skin to cover half a football www.cirp.org and Foreskin views, then their child could be at field! www.foreskin.org are also good. greater risk of infection with HIV, Vernon cited a paper on the National which is unfortunately still amongst Even those deeply committed to the Organization to Halt the Abuse and us in Australia, and on the increase anti-circumcision movement would Routine Mutilation of Males site over the last year. have to acknowledge that using fore- www.noharmm.org, where there is a He admits that virological re- skins in this way has considerable po- lot more worthwhile reading. search tells us that there is a 60% tential benefits. But I must take issue with one reduction in transmission risk if the The cultured skins have been used suc- sentence : ‘Circumcision is perma- male is circumcised. I’m not comfort- cessfully on children with “cotton wool nent mutilation while piercing can able with him saying that this may syndrome”, burns victims and to get rid be reversed.’ True, the lost nerve be good enough for Africans, but not of unwanted tattoos. endings, and therefore full sensa- for us affluent Westerners. Sorry, And one final matter. I can assure tion, cannot be regenerated, but David, but the HIV virus can’t tell David that I do not now and never circumcision can be reversed. New the location, colour or nationality of have had any problems with the foreskins can be, and are being, its potential host. If it has the sexual side of my life. Perhaps it’s a grown. attraction of a foreskin to assist case of what you don’t know you It seems the first restorers were gaining access to the bloodstream, it don’t miss but, quite frankly, I Hellenised Jews who wanted to look will do so 60% more efficiently than consider the quoted 2007 study decent in the gymnasium. To the if there is no foreskin, even if the conclusion to be a particular ancient Greeks, nudity was not rude; foreskin belongs to a rich Australian. to have one’s glans penis visible was. situation. Certainly not applicable to He argues, rightly, that a condom Their method was to wrap a thong the majority of males, ie, those who is a much safer option. However, around and tie it up to the waist. were circumcised soon after birth. recent research tells us that young Obvious really — just apply gentle Just as he appears to be very Australians, whilst aware of the but continuous tension and new skin pleased and satisfied with being protection of condom use, are in- will grow. Modern methods follow “whole,” I can say that I’m also quite creasingly having unprotected sex. the same principles but use modern pleased that my parents made the Also condoms can break or slip off if materials, and there is a wide decision to remove what, until not used properly. If the male is variety of schemes, some using tape, recently, was a pretty useless bit of circumcised, then he still has some some not, some based on weights, skin! And by the way neither I, nor degree of protection if, for whatever others not, and so on. to the best of my knowledge, did my reason, a condom is not used. Of The best source of information is friends recall any trauma or other course circumcision should not be at the National Organization of adverse circumstances, from the promoted instead of proper condom Restoring Men site www.norm.org. experience. use, but far better that 60% protec- On other sites, many men describe tive factor than no protection at all. and illustrate their progress in David Vernon likens circumcising overcoming the mutilation. My own a baby to “criminal assault”. No Regrowth contribution is at www.users.on.net/ more so than I am assaulting my ~pcarter/fsr/. baby by having it vaccinated without But it’s better not to be cut in the its consent, against polio, rubella, Peter Carter first place. diphtheria, smallpox, hepatitis B, etc. Circumcision for health reasons Lockleys SA will add some protection against Health risk HIV infection to that list. A circum- avid Vernon’s ‘Circumcision cised penis looks fine, works just as DMyths’ in the Spring issue was well, and may potentially save the a good overview of the topic, and David Samson boy’s life. I hope readers of the effectively demolished the main Skeptic are not dissuaded from cons- ‘reasons’ why the practice continues. Richmond TAS idering this option for their male As one might expect, there is a children, on health grounds. wealth of information on the Web. A avid Vernon’s article in the good site to start is The Intactivism D current issue (27:3) is poten- Pages www.circumstitions.com. An tially dangerous to men’s health. If a

Page 62 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Forum The Power of Prayer

Yeen Ong the other hand God has nothing to do battles. Is God being asked to sanc- with the weather then why waste tion their killings, or at least to look Elanora QLD time praying to Him for help? Prayer the other way? Everyone claims that is therefore irrelevant and useless. God is on their side! How ridiculous n its most common form prayer is In May this year, while we were can one get? Ithe practice of asking God or some visiting our daughter and her family Again, I understand that the supernatural being to grant us some- in Portugal, we happened to stay Australian Parliamentary meetings thing. In this brief article I shall quite close to the holiday resort where are preceded by the saying of some attempt to convince you of the fic- a 4-year old English girl was believed Christian prayers. I am not too sure tional nature of prayer. I do hope that to have been kidnapped the day after why this is done at all. But it is time this article will be read by non- our arrival. Our hearts and those of this to be discontinued for two main sceptics as well. To the sceptics it may all local residents cried out for this reasons. sound like preaching to the converted. poor girl and her parents. However (1) Prayers have no place in a demo- My early education was in a Catho- while the police were doing their best cratically elected and secular govern- lic school in Malaysia. Over a period to find the whereabouts of this little ment; and of several years I must have said girl, her parents, both medical doctors (2) If prayer is needed at all, why should thousands of Hail Mary’s and The from England, spent hours daily it be of the Christian variety? Lord’s Prayers. Like most of my going to the local church to pray for What about non-Christian and classmates I prayed especially hard the safe return of their missing atheists? Here, prayers tend to play a just before examinations. But unlike daughter. They even travelled to divisive role. some of my friends I also studied Fatima to pray to the Virgin Mary for On the health front scientific hard. Year in, year out examination help. Nor did the praying stop there, researchon patients have shown that results proved that those who studied for later they flew to Rome to meet there is no evidence at all that prayer hard passed irrespective of whether the Pope and asked His Holiness also has any effect on patients for whom they prayed or not. Those who put to pray for the cause. Because of the for whom prayers have been said. In their effort in prayers alone and not very wide media coverage given to fact evidence to the contrary has been in their studies invariably failed. A this case around the world, millions of easy to find. So why do so many still clear case of prayer being worse than people have volunteered to join in the continue to pray for the sick and useless. praying. Now almost six months have dying? In Malaysia when there is severe elapsed but none of the prayers have On the global front hurricanes, drought it is customary for farmers to been answered. What is going on earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, and seek the help of a holy man or sha- here? Again the only conclusion bushfires etc are natural disasters man called Bomoh. It is his job to possible is that prayer is useless. God which are rightly labelled by insur- pray to the gods for rain to fall on the either does not exist, or if He exists ance companies as ‘acts of god’. When arid land. Although over the years does not hear our prayers. such terrible ‘acts’ become imminent statistics has shown tha int 99 out of These are just three examples of people pray to God to avert them. 100 cases his prayer has never been the futility of prayer, out of countless Which invariably fails. Then when answered, the practice is still com- others. Still, millions of prayers are the horrors strike they ask God to mon amongst the older farmers. The being offered up to God every hour of protect them from harm and suffer- better educated younger farmers the day. Imagine the colossal waste of ing. Thousands perish during tsuna- seem to be able to use their reasoning human hours in productivity and mis despite millions offering their faculty to figure out that if God the opportunities lost. prayers to God for help. If such Almighty in His infinite wisdom has On a national level, for centuries disasters are not initiated by God, He decided to withhold rain from certain Army Chaplains prayed to God (I definitely does not lift one of His regions of the land for a certain believe they still do) before soldiers almighty fingers to alleviate the period of time, who are we mortals to marched out to kill their enemies. I human tragedy. The logical conclu- tell Him that He should change His shall be most intrigued to read the sion is again that either God does not mind? What a blasphemous act! If on text of a Chaplain’s prayer before exist or He is indifferent to our petty

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 63 Forum human affairs. Once again prayers also pious to do so. This is powerful (1) Who am I praying to? are out of date and useless. because as human beings most of us (2) Is there any scientific evidence that Let us take a look at some of the feel the need to be righteous. Over prayers work? reasons why so many resort to time such habits developed into prayers instead of using their brains addictions, thus Muslims pray five The answer to (1) is straightfor- to solve their problems in life. To times a day, while other ‘holy‘ people ward. The ‘who’ you are praying to is figure out a solution to problems in get up at four every morning for just a figment of your imagination, not life is usually not easy. To pray is no prayers. As with all addictions, the a fact. You may address Him as God sweat. No intelligence or faculty of victims once addicted do not stop to but He does not really exist. Therefore reason is needed. No hardware or question the validity of their actions. there is no one out there to hear your software is required. No ISP charges. Do we need prayer? The answer is a prayers let alone respond to them. The You simply mumble something to definite No. The sooner we can rid of answer to (2) is, there is not one iota God, who is always present anywhere the bad habit of praying and teach of scientific evidence that supports the and any time. Sometimes God seems younger generations that prayer is notion that prayers work. In fact, in to be rather hard-of-hearing, in that just bad superstition, the better the the 21st Century, where science and case the use of a megaphone installed world would become. In fact if you technology have reached such an on the roof-top might help. think about it the act of beseeching advanced level of achievement; stem From time immemorial praying God to grant you your wishes is an cell research, satellite communication, used to be considered a virtue. abuse of God and therefore is blas- interplanetary travel, etc, there is Praying, in fact, is nothing virtuous phemous. really no place for such nonsense as at all but a sign of incompetence and If you wish to break the useless praying to a supernatural being. Like laziness. Prayers have been around habit, but find the force of years of witches’ curses and sorcerers’ magic for a long time, in fact for centuries — habit a bit strong, I suggest that you they should all be thrown out like most people pray simply out of habit. meditate on the following two simple dirty bath water long ago. One other reason for praying is that it questions each time you are tempted May God shine the light of reason is generally considered virtuous if not to engage in the old practice: on you all.

Climate Debate

John Gibbs ad hominem attacks on the critics Page 10 is the one in which the Summary without any attempt to refute their expresses the authors’ feeling that hu- Brisbane QLD arguments. man responsibility for warming is “very Taking each of his points in turn: likely”. Not exactly scientific language, is it? obert O’Connor’s letter in the 1. Page 10 of the IPCC Summary RSpring issue of the Skeptic fails “does claim a causal connection be- 2. The Fraser Institute summary is somewhat to get into the spirit of my tween greenhouse gas emissions and “richly laden with misrepresentations greenhouse article in the previous warming”. and methodological flaws”. issue. My whole thesis is that Of course it does — that’s Unfortunately no examples greenhouse theory is not science but whatsoever of these flaws and mis- religion, a dogma unsupported by the greenhouse faith, isn’t it? What I said was that “...the 4th IPCC sum- representations are provided. Just evidence. Mr O’Connor’s ‘rebuttal’ the bald statement! consists mainly of a series of dog- mary does not claim any evidence of matic assertions entirely unsup- a direct causal connection”. It is the 3. One doubts the reliability of the ported by any evidence! In addition making of these outrageous state- Fraser Institute “given the amount of (shades of the ABC’s response to The ments, not just without any evi- tobacco, coal and oil money that it is Great Global Warming Swindle) dence, but without any acknowled- given.” much of the defence as, sadly, is so gement that a trivial matter like The editor warned me that I often the case when an ideology is evidence is even necessary, that is so would be accused of being in the pay being questioned, takes the form of worrying. of Big Oil, but apparently it is the

Page 64 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Forum

Fraser Institute that is the dupe of der Cockburn, in an article in The 8. The “canard” that we can’t even fore- the capitalists. Again no details are Nation in the US highlighted this cast tomorrow’s weather is “very tired” provided but I think we get Mr fallacy. Citing a number of examples and irrelevant anyway because climate O’Connor’s point that the shortcom- of leading authorities among the is an average of weather patterns over ings of the IPCC report must be critics he states: a period. ignored if an institution which The marquee slogan in the new cold He’s being disingenuous here — doesn’t meet his standards of politi- war on global warming is that the sci- and refusing to discuss the issues, cal correctness points them out. entific consensus is virtually unani- once again. My throwaway com- Not that it matters but the Fraser mous. This is utterly false. The ments on the inability of meteorolo- Institute is, in fact, a libertarian overwhelming majority of climate com- gists to forecast weather accurately think-tank which advocates, inter puter modellers, the beneficiaries of the was a tailpiece to the section where I alia, the legalisation of marijuana. $2 billion-a-year global warming grant pointed out that the profession has Some bastion of the Right! industry, certainly believe in it but not never been able to explain any — 4. One doubts the reliability of the necessarily most real climate scientists repeat any — of the major changes in Fraser Institute summary given “...the — people qualified in atmospheric the Earth’s climate over the eons. ideological positions of the report’s au- physics, climatology and meteorology. Not the coming and going, over thors”. Geologists are particularly sceptical. many millions of years, of ice ages; not the interglacial periods like the This stumped me. I have no idea 6. Greenhouse gases are a “far more present interglacial warming which what the ideological positions of the obvious” explanation for global warm- has been going on for some 12,000 authors are nor, as usual, does Mr ing than Svensmark’s cosmic rays. O’Connor provide any examples or years and which, the historical One really has to be devout to any clue as to his sources of this non- patterns apparently suggest, may consider a human explanation of the information. My feeling was that I well have some tens of thousands of interglacial warming that has been thought the highly-qualified Fraser years to run; not the sudden revers- (“a rather weak document”) authors going on for 12,000 years — a als within these, like the ‘mini ice- were unduly respectful of the IPCC crushing contradiction that green- age’ from about 1600 to the early house theorists, unsurprisingly, do report, presumably because they 1800s or the downturn from 1940 to not know how to counter - as “obvi- come from similar academic back- the early 1970s. ous”. The Svensmark/Calder book grounds to the IPCC people. The significance of meteorologists’ was not, however, presented by me inability to explain natural climate 5. MIT’s Prof Lindzen is “a brilliant but as ‘the answer’ - although it was change is not just the fact that it extremely non-representative contrarian another fine example of eminent highlights at what an early stage of in meteorology”. scientists demurring from green- its development the ‘fledgling sci- That’s it? If you’re not represent- house. It was mentioned as an ence’ currently is. As my article ing the prevailing orthodoxy you example of how greenhouse fanati- emphasised, until we have an must be wrong? We are used to the cism is trying to take the issue understanding of what is happening established Church taking this sort beyond rational debate. Green Bus- with regard to these natural fluctua- of position but I never thought I iness News said that there is no point tions — ie, until we know what the would hear it from a reader of the even considering the Svensmark/ underlying climate would be doing Skeptic. Calder thesis because now that the anyway — then it is literally impos- While the rational among us do IPCC has said that human cause is sible to calculate what effect, if any, not assess scientific truth by count- 90% certain “the climate change human activity is having. Indeed, ing heads, we must, however, be debate doesn’t matter any more”! scientifically speaking, “... until the wary of the greenhouse fairytale that 7. String theory “probably is wrong” but macro background is understood the there is anything like consensus that doesn’t mean that greenhouse possibility remains that carbon among the experts — an impression theory is. emissions are having a net cooling very easy to form due to one-sided effect on the world’s climate”. media coverage. I pointed out in my Talk about missing the point. String theory is not wrong. A suppos- And finally, the last refuge — a article that: edly scientific theory that makes no tug at the heartstrings... Criticism, from no matter how eminent new predictions and is not capable of 9. I’m not prepared to gamble my chil- an authority, tends to get snippet-like being empirically tested is not cap- dren’s future away on the strength of coverage at best whereas unfounded able of being wrong, which is why Dr John or Mark’s arguments. predictions of imminent catastrophe Woit entitled his book Not Even I’m not prepared to gamble my from ill-informed, often blatantly po- Wrong. Paraphrasing this, I entitled children’s future away on anything. I litically-coloured sources routinely get my article on greenhouse theory — want their future planned on the headlines. which also makes no new predic- basis of facts and evidence. Isn’t that The Australian newspaper re- tions and does not admit to any what being a skeptic is all about? ported on 12th June last that Alexan- critical tests — ‘Not Even Science’.

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 65 Letters

Can a Christian be a Scientist? learned about in school were Chris- On another point Jon started his tians. When the Royal Society was article with, “Although the rate of founded the members made a Christian belief among Western Kevin Rogers deliberate decision to avoid reli- scientists is lower than the general Modbury SA gious explanations and seek natural population…” Is it? This is a grand explanations. However, this deci- assumption proclaimed without sion was made in the context of justification or proof. Where did you n the Spring edition of the Skeptic Christian belief. They believed that get this from, Jon? IJon Jermey argued that a Chris- for the most part the universe Richard Dawkins presented such tian cannot practice science and be operated in a consistent manner but an argument in The God Delusion consistent with their beliefs; all still believed that God could do (pages 97 to 103). He asserted that scientists should be atheists. His something unexpected, even if in the USA 90% of the general argument is basically that since the rarely. They believed they were population, 40% of the scientific Christian God is omnipotent, omnis- discovering the mind of God. How- population and a small minority of cient, omnipresent and operates the ever, atheistic scientists have elite scientists believe in God. The universe in accordance with his will, reversed the argument and insist inverse correlation looks convincing, therefore the universe would be that since the universe is usually doesn’t it? However, he was compar- unpredictable and not amenable to observed to act consistently, there- ing apples with oranges. The 90% scientific investigation. fore God is not allowed to partici- figure resulted from the question, However, his argument is a non- pate or intervene as it would ruin “Do you believe in God?” The 40% sequitur. He falsely assumes that the game. They have turned the figure resulted from a far more God is arbitrary or capricious. By scientific tool into an idol. restrictive question, “Do you believe contrast, the Bible depicts God as There is a saying, “Two men in a personal God who answers faithful and one in whom we can looked out of prison bars; one saw prayer?” trust to be consistent with his mud and the other saw stars.” The The elite result was from an character. atheist and the Christian practice unpublished study, but its results Anyway, the proof is in the pud- science in exactly the same way. are unbelievable. I recently spoke to ding. Jon cites Galileo’s experiment They just see the laws of nature a physics professor from Oxford with falling bodies to argue his case through different eyes. (which is Dawkins’ own university). and compares atheistic and Chris- Many scientists believe that one He didn’t believe the results either. tian interpretations of the experi- of the tests of a good theory is If Dawkins performed a simple mental results. But was Galileo an mathematical beauty. Why? It experiment by attending the local atheist? Not at all. Despite his makes perfect sense to a Christian, Anglican Church at Oxford on any altercations with the Roman Catho- but I do not understand how an Sunday, he could “meet the elite”. lic hierarchy and the scientists of his atheist could logically have the same Atheistic biologist Stephen Jay day, he was still a firm believer in expectation if it is all a product of Gould once observed, “Either half God. mindless chance. One day, scientists my colleagues are enormously The origins of modern science may crack open the atom beyond stupid, or else the science of Darwin- were deeply influenced by Chris- quarks and find out what is inside. I ism is fully compatible with conven- tians. The founding members of the expect they will find some principle tional religious beliefs… and equally Royal Society of London for the that is far more beautiful and compatible with atheism.” Did Gould Improvement of Natural Knowledge elegant than string theory or M- surround himself with also-rans? My were mainly Christian. Most of the theory and will conclude, “Oh yes it own ad hoc experience is that the big names in science that you must be that way”. Do you? highly educated and scientifically

Page 66 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Letters trained (such as scientists, engineers ing theories. Christian scientists can she would put on one side the and doctors) are just as strongly make the same observation, and possibility of a miracle, and proceed represented as any other sector in conclude that the Axiom of Consist- in exactly the same way as the the population. There may well be ency expresses a characteristic of atheist. demographic influences on Christian God’s activity. For the Christian, Jon’s final conclusion, that “A belief or unbelief, but I think that what God can do (which is central to traditionalist Christian ‘scientist’ is Dawkins’ analysis is simplistic and Jon’s argument) is not always either lying or misled”, depended flawed. relevant. It is what he does do that crucially on his assumption that is important. The Christian scientist Christians view God as capricious, has no less reason to believe and and is just not true. apply the Axiom of Consistency than the atheist scientist. Scientists who are Christian In relation to the alleged unpre- dictability of the Christian God’s actions, Jon alluded to miracles, in Or a chess player? Bill Moriarty the sense of exceptions to the natu- St. Leonards VIC ral order rather than very rare Lindsay Brash natural events. On pp 50-51 he stated “...there are many occasions Armidale NSW hen I first read Jon Jermey’s on which God or God’s representa- Warticle “Can a Scientist be a tives have been reported to alter on Jermey makes such a compel- Christian?” in the Spring 2007 issue, what would otherwise have been the ling argument that a scientist I wondered whether he had his outcome of physical or chemical J cannot be a Christian (or a Christian tongue in his cheek. I am still not events”. I wonder precisely what Jon can’t be a scientist?) that I was given sure about that, though in his photo meant by “many” in this context. pause for thought. What else, I he does not seem to have it in that Christians (mostly) believe there wondered, is inconsistent with being position. In any case, I feel that the have, over the centuries, been a Christian? flaws in his argument should not go relatively few such occasions. They So I went through the article and unchallenged. believe that such occasions are very substituted “science” with “playing Jon based his considerations on rare. chess” and revelation! — It all the Christian belief that God is Jon also noted, on p 51, in rela- worked perfectly. I could hardly omniscient, omnipotent, and omni- tion to the atheist scientist’s reliance wait to tell the Vicar at chess club on present. He assumed this God is also on the Axiom of Consistency, “Some- Thursday night. His response was capricious, and developed a case that times, of course, other things aren’t checkmate in 11 moves, but I con- events controlled by such a God equal, and catastrophes occur or soled myself that his victory was should be unpredictable. He paid no interesting discoveries emerge....”. hollow — after all, I had pure logic attention to other Christian beliefs, Presumably he was referring to on my side, and he was only fooling some of which are relevant. occasions when an observation or himself. He asserted (p.50) “There is no experiment produces a strange clear evidence (or doctrine) indicat- seeming result. When confronted ing whether or not God takes a day- with such an occasion, an atheist to-day interest in the workings of scientist would repeat the experi- physics or chemistry ...” There is in ment or (if possible) the observation Avoiding the unavoidable fact a doctrine that God does. (Jon a number of times, perhaps taking implied this when, on p 5l, he stated extra care. If the results were that for the Christian “...all physics consistent with previous knowledge, Brian O’Sullivan depends on God’s will.”). From the the strange result would be dis- Taringa QLD Christian point of view, there is also counted. If the strange result was evidence that God takes such a day- repeated, this would suggest a new to-day interest, and further, that he discovery, and further investigation loved Jef Clark’s article on does so consistently. would be needed. A Christian scien- ITechniques for avoiding the Jon has noted that what he calls tist, confronted with such an occa- unavoidable (27:3), but I think our the Axiom of Consistency, basic to sion, might consider the possibility Grandma had a superior technique. scientific procedures, is an assump- that this was a miracle, but would When her health started to fail we tion. To justify this assumption, think it very unlikely. built a Grannie Pad on the front of atheist scientists note that (most) In any case, since science is our home at Sherwood, a western past events have been consistent concerned with the natural order suburb of Brisbane. She had a very with one another, and with prevail- rather than any exceptions to it, he/ superior ‘Pad’ and had little to do

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 67 Letters except care for her pot plants and Again, the word was passed It distresses me, therefore, when azaleas. Her Alzheimer’s Disease around (like when the colt from old our trustworthy journal publishes worsened so she had to cease driving Regret got away) and they ceased material by argumentative writers her car (she got lost on a couple of coming to call on us. This persisted with no scientific background in the occasions and had to telephone for for many years. Even after she died topic on which they are opining and help). As a medico I was seldom home we had no callers of any type, with scant knowledge of the evi- and the rest of our family were very especially collectors from worthy dence. While outsiders might occa- active, my wife working on tuck organisations or any from a religious sionally throw new light on the shops, etc and the children away fraternity. evidence (Darwin being the greatest at school or university. She was We were very amused the week exemplar), they must, surely, find alone from dawn to dark so she following her funeral, when we the evidence and not merely suck became fairly lonely and developed received a deputation from most of idle thoughts out of itchy thumbs. the habit of setting ambushes for any the residents down our street, to say Of course, quod hominem, tot unwary passers by. Our front garden they were sorry she had died but sententionem in philosophical was ideal for this as along the front they just wanted to tell us that now argumentation. But that is not the fence was a row of huge camphor they could resume taking the short- philosophy of science, nor of skepti- laurel trees, which she could hide est route to the railway station and cism. It is primarily the evidence behind and then emerge to have a the shopping centre, instead of which matters, then the logic of the chat, give a plant cutting, bunches of walking the long way around the consequent argument, and only flowers or fruit or vegetables (espe- block. They said they enjoyed lastly, the opinion and reputation of cially passionfruit as we had a vine meeting her, having a chat, accept- the opiner. that yielded a bucketful a day for ing her gifts, but it was very hard to I won’t point fingers (“No names, some years). The locals became wise escape from her and as one woman no pack drill!”), but there have been to this and used to detour via another said she never remembered the recent forays in our journal by street to go to the local railway meetings even if a meeting had only provocative non-experts, possibly station and shopping centre. occurred a short time before. persuasive for a reader ignorant in Another interesting aspect of life One woman used to take her the field. Some peer review by is the large number of well meaning small children to Kindergarten of a experts in the relevant science people that collect for worthy causes morning and pick them up in the would not go amiss before we favour and those from religious groups who afternoon. In other words she passed these musings with a citation in our hope to convert you to their beliefs our house at least four times a day illustrious journal. eg, Adventists, JWs, Mormons and and she just didn’t have the time to Else we become guilty of the many types of Hot Gospellers. It spare for all those chats. electronic sin: “Garbage in, garbage always seemed to me that never a I still shudder at the thought of out”. day went by without one or two warm soda water even in a crystal turning up, and at weekends collec- goblet, or a tepid brew from a tors seemed to be in plague propor- mouldy old silver teapot served in an A response tions. elegant Royal Doulton cup and Grandma was just thrilled when saucer; but the peace of no one they called. She would invite them knocking at our front door for all Barry Williams in, make them comfortable in her those years was wonderful. lounge and then the fun would start. She would always insist they have a hile I doubt there are many ‘cool drink’, usually soda water at Wsimilar-sized groups that room temperature, and then she contain quite so much expertise in would insist they had a cup of tea. Expert opinion quite such a broad range of topics as Grandma never drank tea but she the Skeptics, it’s a fact that not would get out her silver teapot, with Peter “I think, therefore I am.... a every one of us knows everything lots of mould and old tea-leaves about everything. And while being skeptic” Arnold attached inside. The kettle seldom opinionated and argumentative are boiled and her stock of tea was many Edgecliff NSW not necessary characteristics of a years old, so they were given a Skeptic, nor are these attributes tepid cup of ‘dish water’ and offered entirely unfamiliar to many of us. lthough as philosophically many refills of this frightful brew. The Skeptic promotes itself as a argumentative as the next She never wanted them to go and A “Journal of Fact and Opinion” — skeptic, I am professionally (medi- would try to keep them trapped for opinions do matter to most Skeptics, cal) and personally (atheology) what, no doubt, seemed to them an as long as they are well-informed committed to the Skeptics’ motto: eternity. and well-argued; and as long as “Seek the evidence!”

Page 68 - the Skeptic, Summer 2007 Letters Notice contrary opinions have the chance to be aired, we feel that much can be learned from reading such cross- flows. Useful Sites for Skeptics There are issues that are either not particularly contentious, or are There are many sites containing information of interest to Skeptics on the so abstruse as to render discussion Web, asome of which we have listed here. We invite readers to inform us of about them incomprehensible to all any others of which they are aware. but a couple of our readers, so they are hardly the stuff of general interest to our subscribers. But there are other issues which are either contentious or of wide popular Australian Skeptics Skeptic Magazine (US) interest, and in such cases it is our www.skeptics.com.au www.skeptic.com intention to encourage debate with the aim of better informing our- No Answers in Genesis selves. The feedback we get deter- www.noanswersingenesis.org.au www.skepticality.com mines whether our judgement about such issues is justified. WA Skeptics Skeptico Of course, there is also a self- www.undeceivingourselves.com skeptico.blogs.com interest factor at play — the more interest an issue generates, the Mystery Investigators Arts and Letters Daily easier an Editor’s job becomes. I’m all in favour of that, and I doubt that www.mysteryinvestigators.com www.aldaily.com Karen would disagree. (Have you Healthinformation Urban Legends Reference Pages noticed how many letters are com- mon to ‘editor’ and ‘deity’?) www.healthinformation.com.au www.snopes.com Ratbags The Skeptic’s Dictionary www.ratbags.com skepdic.com BadPsychics SkepticReport Depressed pets badpsychics.com www.skepticreport.com Bad Astronomy (Phil Plait) Quack Watch Gary Goldberg www.badastronomy.com www.quackwatch.org/ Silver Spring, MD USA Moon Base Clavius (Moon Hoax) The Skeptics Guide to the Universe www.clavius.org www.theskepticsguide.org avid Brookman (27:3) must not Dhave had any exposure to pets James Randi The Correx Files to have written that we cannot www.randi.org www.abc.net.au/science/correx observe depression in animals. In my volunteer work with cats I Richard Dawkins God Checker have heard of cats that stopped richarddawkins.net www.godchecker.com eating when permanently separated from a cat or a human with whom it Denis Dutton Skeptical online videos had formed a strong bond. Such cats www.denisdutton.com video.google.com (search“skeptics”) will die unless force-fed until they are reunited or can form an attach- Richard Wiseman Barry Williams Blog ment with a new companion. richardwiseman.com/ .theaustralian.news.com.au/ Elderly cats may also manifest barrywilliams/ symptoms of senility similar to Committee for Skeptical Inquiry senile humans (getting lost in familiar places, unprecedented www.csicop.org aggression, etc). The above is prob- ably true of dogs and perhaps other social animals. www.pointofinquiry.org

the Skeptic, Summer 2007 - Page 69 Blatant Plugs

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