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— or ‘connected cape’ — is a conflict observatory launched by ACLED, Zitamar Zitamar ACLED, by launched observatory conflict Mozambique a is — cape’ ‘connected or — Cabo Ligado Mediafax. News, and All ACLED data • • • Cabo Delgado, October 2017-May 2021 Cabo Delgado, October 2017-May Cabo Ligado Weekly: 24-30 May 24-30 Weekly: Ligado Cabo On 29 May, insurgents returned to Quiwiya in the middle of the day and burned more homes. The total number number total The homes. more burned and day the of middle the in Quiwiya to returned insurgents May, 29 On The offensive ended by 30 May, when commanders on the ground asked for resupply but none was provided. provided. was but none resupply for asked the ground on commanders when 30 May, ended by The offensive plan- to struggle its and limitations logistical government’s Mozambican the both of indicative is situation This No casual- Mueda. to withdrew involved troops government The gains. territorial sustain and ning operations ties were but reported, the offensive isto saida weapons. have of insurgent The number government netted something presumably Force, Nhongo Mariano the as themselves styled have operation the in involved troops Junta. Military Renamo the of leader the to threat a and tribute a between The same day, in , government troops and local militias began another offensive into Ntchin- into offensive another began militias local and troops government district, Muidumbe in day, same The ga, building on the work pro-government forces have been doing in the area In In , the situation was no less harrowing. One 28 May, insurgents attacked town Quiwiya, about 15 of northeast kilometers a town. Palma A video coastal that on circulated social media shows buildings been yet have casualties No reported. reliably been yet not has damage the of extent The burning. town the in reported. Civilians displaced by the 24 March insurgent attack on Palma continue to face insecurity whether they remain remain they whether insecurity face to continue Palma on attack insurgent March 24 the by displaced Civilians an of report a received Ligado Cabo May, 25 On areas. stable more to way their make tryto or district Palma in were boat by Palma fleeing civilians displaced in which earlier, a week than less place had taken that incident The insurgents on coast. the northern of part Mitacata, the district Macomia near by eight waylaid insurgents all killed and boat insurgents’ the onto charged people the response, in and, people displaced the threatened attackers. their of eight 1 June 2021 1 June of homes destroyed is still unclear, but witnesses said the insurgents seemed intent on burning every building in the village.

By the end of the week, reports on the ground made clear that government forces had not remained in Nama- cande, the capital of Muidumbe district. The government reoccupied the town on 22 May to much fanfare, using the operation to debut the Mozambican military’s new Gazelle helicopters. Yet, as noted in the previous Cabo Ligado weekly, there have always been questions about whether the government had the resources to hold Namacande in the long term. The town is now largely abandoned.

New information about earlier incidents also came to light last week. On 22 May, there was fighting between government forces and insurgents in lower Palma, the area of the town closer to the main site for displaced people at Quitunda. Casualty estimates differ, but the most conservative report suggests that four civilians and five insurgents were killed. Insurgents also burned down 14 homes and a mosque in lower Palma. When confronted by government security forces, the insurgents withdrew north along the road that leads to Quiwiya and, eventually, Tanzania.

On the night of 23 May, in Chiure, someone stole the machine used in the district to issue replacement identity documents for displaced civilians. Efforts to recover the machine or identify the thief have been unsuccessful. The theft delays efforts to provide replacement documents for displaced people in Chiure -- a vital task, as government identification is necessary to access many forms of government aid. It has also raised concerns about infiltration. If the machine ends up in insurgent hands, it could be used to create more convincing covers for insurgent infiltrators. INCIDENT FOCUS: LIFE IN MACOMIA VS. NANGADE Reports that came in last week show the varied situations for civilians who are trying to build lives in districts that remain targets of insurgent attack. In the district capitals of Nangade and Macomia, civilians are attempt- ing to live day-to-day with the insecurity and hardship brought on by the conflict. With a third of displaced Palma residents surveyed by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) saying that they are unsure if they want to return home, the experiences of civilians in Nangade and Macomia are instructive, as they offer some insight into the challenges displaced civilians will face if and when they try to return to their home com- munities.

In Nangade, the situation remains bleak. People displaced during the 24 March Palma attack are still arriving on foot in the town, including over 60 new arrivals on 30 May. The continued movement of people into Nan- gade is creating both increased demand for resources and increased concern that insurgents are infiltrating among the late-arriving escapees. As a result, there is a significant outflow of people leaving Nangade for points south, in some cases encouraged by government security forces, even as new displaced people enter the town. According to IOM data, over 6,000 people from Palma have passed through Nangade on their way to other locations, while over 17,000 have stayed in the district. Security remains tight, and government forces in the district keep a close watch on the displaced communities they are charged with protecting.

Among those who have moved away from Nangade is the district administrator, a fact that has caused con- sternation among those who have remained. Yet education and health workers remain, at least in the district capital, and are supported by a small number of international organizations. After a period of government restriction, movement between Nangade and Mueda is once again unregulated, allowing goods to enter the district capital more freely. The road is still heavily militarized, however, with at least ten checkpoints between Mueda and Nangade.

In Macomia, the infrastructure problems may be even worse than in Nangade, but the trend is more positive.

CABOLIGADO.COM | 2 Macomia town was largely destroyed during the insurgent occupation of the district capital in May of 2020. Since being reoccupied by government forces, civilians have slowly begun returning to the town. A year after the insurgent occupation, however, civilians in the area still say that basic state services are largely non-exis- tent. The medical facilities in Macomia town have trouble stocking medicine, including basics like antimalar- ials. Pregnant women also lack access to prenatal care. In addition, security remains a major concern, with kidnappings reported on the outskirts of town and bus drivers expressing worries that they will be waylaid by government forces on the road.

Yet those same drivers, working the route between Macomia and Pemba, report that many Macomia natives living in the provincial capital still wish to return home. The resources available in the fields and forests sur- rounding Macomia town are still far greater than what is being offered to those surviving on aid in Pemba, a fact that is pushing more and more civilians toward braving a return to the inland areas of Macomia district. GOVERNMENT RESPONSE

For displaced Palma residents still stuck in the district, the attacks in lower Palma town have made clear that Quitunda is not their safest option for a place to stay. Most of the thousands of civilians remaining in the area have moved further out onto the Afungi peninsula, making camp on the coast at Maganja. There they can gath- er fish for food and attempt to arrange ocean transport south to Pemba.

One of the challenges they must overcome to leave Quitunda, however, is the rent-seeking behavior of the military forces protecting them. Two women who were able to be evacuated on what was meant to be a free military flight to Pemba told the BBC that they each had to pay $82 bribes to secure seats on the plane. In one case, the prohibitive cost of the bribe forced a family to separate, with a husband remaining in Palma so that his wife and children could make their way to safety in Pemba. As of the end of May, according to IOM, only 809 people have been evacuated from Palma by air. IOM has registered 64,099 people displaced from Palma overall, and the number continues to rise.

Meanwhile, the Mozambican government continues to argue that any grievances driving the insurgency are the result of foreign instigation, rather than legitimate domestic concerns. That argument was made recently during a private meeting of the Frelimo Central Committee, and then repeated publicly last week by Cabo Del- gado governor Valige Tauabo. Speaking in Ancuabe on 26 May, Tauabo claimed that the trend in Cabo Delgado leading up to the insurgency was one of “more employment [and] more hope” and that therefore concerns about youth unemployment could not have played a role in the rise of the insurgency. Much has been written about the reality of unmet economic expectations in Cabo Delgado.

On the international front, the long-awaited summit of the Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) Extraordinary Double Troika took place in on 27 May, but resolved little. There had been hopes that the Double Troika would act on the SADC technical team’s recommendations regarding a regional military intervention in Cabo Delgado. Instead, the only concrete step to be found in the summit communique was a promise to reconvene for further talks about Cabo Delgado by 20 June. The extension gives SADC members more time to negotiate how they will respond to the technical team’s recommendations.

Some reports suggested that the Tanzanian foreign minister, Liberate Mulamula, expressed opposition to a regional intervention in Cabo Delgado in the run up to the summit, but there is no evidence that she ever made such a statement. Instead, it seems that Tanzania shares concerns about the costs and benefits of intervention with the rest of the SADC member states.

Nyusi hailed the summit as a success and urged SADC to play a coordinating role in funneling counterinsurgen- cy assistance from outside the region into Mozambique. Having made it through the Frelimo Central Commit-

CABOLIGADO.COM | 3 tee meeting of 22-23 May without any major challenges to his control of the party, Nyusi now has more political latitude to negotiate the terms of foreign assistance. Yet his turn toward promoting SADC as a coordinating body may be a response to pressure from regional governments, as they reportedly rebuffed his attempt to include Rwandan representatives in decision making meetings about SADC intervention.

Outside of SADC, further counterinsurgency assistance will likely come from Europe, through either European Union (EU) or bilateral programs. Portuguese defense minister João Gomes Cravinho said last week that he expects the EU to reach an agreement on a military training mission with Mozambique by June, and that the mission itself could take place within three months of the agreement being signed. In addition to Portugal, up to seven other EU countries could be involved in the mission, which Gomes Cravinho said had received broad support in the EU.

French president Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, said during a trip last week to South Africa that his gov- ernment would be willing to provide military support in Cabo Delgado on the conditions that Mozambique requests the assistance and that the SADC coordinates the deployment. Macron mentioned that France could respond quickly to calls for assistance, as French troops and assets are based on the nearby French depart- ments of Mayotte and Reunion.

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