'Stabilitocracy' And/Or Radicalism ZAGREB BEOGRAD SARAJEVO Skopje Tirana
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Issue No 7 November 2019 SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE 'stabilitocracy' and/or radicalism ZAGREB BEOGRAD SARAJEVO SKOPJE TIRANA Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Fostering democracy and upholding human rights, taking action to prevent the destruction of the global ecosystem, advancing equality between women and men, securing peace through conflict prevention in crisis zones, and defending the freedom of individuals against excessive state and economic power – these are the objectives that drive the ideas and actions of the Heinrich Böll Foundation. We maintain close ties to the German Green Party (Alliance 90/The Greens) and as a think tank for green visions and projects, we are part of an international net work encompassing well over 100 partner projects in approxi mately 60 countries. The Heinrich Böll Foundation works independently and nurtures a spirit of intellectual openness. We maintain a world wide network with currently 30 international offices. Our work in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia concentrates on the democratization process, political education, and environmental protection and sustainable development. We support and open public fora about topical and marginalized social-political issues and we enable networking of local and international actors close to the Green values. contents introduction 2 never-ending transition Srđan Dvornik 6 radicalisations. creating wars, for now without weapons Marion Kraske suffocated by stability 11 populism as business as (un)usual Zlatiborka Popov Momčinović 17 features of competitive authoritarian rule in the western Balkans Florian Bieber 23 illiberal tendencies in Croatia after Trump and Brexit Dario Čepo 28 the hidden radicalism of the ruling ideologies Nerzuk Ćurak radicalisation against external ‘others’ 34 between the humanitarian and the securitized approach to the refugee crisis in Croatia: is there an alternative to policies grounded in populism? Viktor Koska 40 a Croatian story: “an extraordinary EU Member” at the price of human rights Boris Pavelić perpetuating past wars 46 unrealised in the wars of the ‘90s, the idea of an all-Serb state is maintained by other means in peace Latinka Perović 53 revisionism in Croatia 1989-2019 Ivo Goldstein 59 the different faces of fascism Erich Rathfelder radicalisation and maintenance of power 63 the ‘stability’ of Albanian democracy without rule of law: political polarization, captured institutions and periodical crisis Arolda Elbasani 69 ‘fool’s gold’: the Macedonian journey from stabilitocracy to radicalization and back Biljana Vankovska 75 Europe’s longest-standing leader survives with Western support, while oppressively ruling the country Milka Tadić 79 stabilitocracy and political stability – a view from Serbia Vladimir Veljković 85 non-implementation of ECtHR and BH Constitutional Court decisions in the rule of law and policy context Dženana Karup Druško civil society vs establishment 90 another view – in the eye of the political storm. stabilo-radical rhapsody in Montenegro Damir Nikočević, Daliborka Uljarević 93 on the margins of political discourse Gresa Hasa 2 introduction never-ending transition introduction never-ending transition Srđan Dvornik In the wake of several recent ethnic inci- Thus, regardless of almost thirty dents that happened in Croatia, a well known representative of the minority whose years since the fall on undemo- members were attacked expressed a harsh cratic regimes, it seems that the critique of the political climate in which expected transition to democ- numerous expressions of intolerance by racy and free market economy prominent public figures sooner or later had in ‘western Balkans’ has become to result in insults, physical attacks and vio- lence. He expressed his concern that today’s a never-ending story. Societies Croatia could end up becoming similar to its are weak, pluralism develops alleged predecessor. His statement was met slowly and with great difficulties, with a new wave of intolerant responses. political elites still dominate, and Most of those who reacted recognised the economies are still dependent ‘predecessor’: the ‘Independent State of Croatia’ (NDH), the puppet state created by either on political authorities or the Nazis in the Second World War in the ter- on international companies. At ritories which nowadays belong to Bosnia- the same time, we witness to au- Herzegovina and Croatia. In the country thoritarianism, intolerance, more where extremists more or less overtly com- or less constant popular support memorate the quisling regime, and official institutions downplay its crimes while com- to the same political leaders memorating its soldiers and officials who or parties who get re-elected fell as victims of the victorious partisans, in spite of the poor economic and where it seems more important that and social performance of their the ‘NDH’ was a Croatian entity than that respective governments, and the it was a fascist-style regime, all of a sudden widespread corruption. everybody seemed hurt by the comparison between the contemporary Croatia and the regime which was defeated three quarters of a century ago. As though everybody sud- denly woke up from a nightmare and real- ised that the ‘Croat state’ from WW2 was really something to be ashamed of. Srđan Dvornik Sociologist, consultant, translater Zagreb never-ending transition introduction 3 This might be a symptom of the divided nity, and ethnic minorities are viewed with national ‘self’ of a nation guided by a dou- suspicion; the would-be guardians of stabil- ble ideology: on one hand, believing in its ity easily turn into investigators looking for unique ethno-national identity which must enemies (internal and external) and destroy- not be mixed with anyone else’s, in language, ing what little trust people might have devel- culture, economy, territory, and, of course, oped in each other and in the institutions sovereignty; on the other, proud of being that are supposed to be concerned with the fundamentally different from the primitive public good and equal rights for all. While ‘Balkans’, of having belonged to ‘Europe’ praising stability and boasting as its reputed from times immemorial. For household guarantors, they demonstrate how close purposes, we may have not entirely negative their societies are to its opposite, and how memories of the ‘NDH’, but if a representa- close their own methods are to something tive of a minority, a non-Croat, especially a generating instability and radicalism. representative whose words are noticed by Why is that? foreign media and politicians, makes such a Three decades after the symbolic begin- comparison, which immediately gets inter- ning of the democratisation of socialist preted as equalisation, we are offended. countries in central and eastern Europe, But what was more surprising was that marked by the fall of the Berlin wall, a even more ferocious reactions were pro- recent study found that significant portions voked by another statement by the same of these societies feel democracy is under person: that, by pursuing such ethnically threat. Two decades ago, various research- biased politics, Croatia turns from a fac- ers were publishing papers which argued tor of stability into a cause of instability in that democracy in European post-socialist the neighbouring region. Before that, one countries was consolidated. That meant was hardly aware that stability played such that, in the opinion of considerable parts a prominent role on the list of Croatian of these societies, democracy was “the only national priorities. But on a closer look, one game in town”. In other words, two or three quickly realises that all neighbouring coun- election cycles passed without crises or tries which share with Croatia the recent major conflicts; all the major political par- history of transition are highly sensitive to ties were ready to accept electoral defeat stability as a component of their interna- without putting into question the whole sys- tional reputation. tem of democratic representation. Mean- At the same time, however, these are while, most of these countries successfully the countries where, more often than not, completed the procedure of accession to changes of government after elections are the European Union and became members; followed by the vehement resistance of the conditions they had to meet additionally defeated side, be it by staged protests or by cemented democracy and the rule of law. physical violence. In this region there is no What happened in the meantime to loyalty or patriotism based on respect for the make democracy seem not so consolidated constitution and rule of law; instead, the pol- as twenty years ago is beyond the scope of ity is still equated with the ethnic commu- an introduction into this collection of arti- 4 introduction never-ending transition We also see waves of political mobilisation of ethnic nationalism, on the fertile soil of inter- or intra-state tensions (like those between Serbia and Kosovo, or entities and ethnic ‘communities’ in Bosnia and Hercegovina or Macedonia). Even the migrations of millions caused by wars, terror, cli- mate changes or famine provide a new occasion to spread fear of ‘others’, foreigners, people of different cultures… cles focused on developments in south- In the part of Europe stretching from eastern Europe. Suffice it to say that there Croatia to Albania (the so-called Western is less trust in the guarantees of the rule of Balkans) the post-socialist development was law, in information from public sources,