Trash & Treasures of Duplication

Trash & Treasures of Duplication Cross-Media Synergy Prospects from Arbitron’s Portable People Meters (PPM)

By R. McConochie, Ph.D. Arbitron Inc.

Beth Uyenco Optimum Media

June 2002

Insights into Target’s Cross-Media Usage

• Understanding target’s uses of multiple media

» Including correction of random duplication estimation

• Enabling more intelligent media campaigns, over time, across media • Fine-tuning principles of more effective, efficient planning

1 The First PPM Cross-Media Investigation, 2001

• PPM’s “real” cross-media data • Show variations in target duplication by time period

PPM 2001 Results Show Cross-Media Duplication Highest in Evening

Persons 18+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001

TV Only M-F 6:00-8:00 Both TV & Radio

Radio Only

M-F 8:00-10:00

M-F 19:00-24:00

2 Narrower Targets Show Different Patterns of Duplication

• Younger target shows more radio-TV duplication • Older target shows higher exclusive- TV cume

2001 Results Point to Cross- Media Target-Demo Variations

Persons 18+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001

M-F 6:00-8:00

35+ TV Only

18-34 Both TV & Radio

Radio Only M-F 8:00-10:00 35+

18-34

M-F 19:00-24:00 35+

18-34

0 20406080100

3 PPM’s “Measured” Reach May Differ from What Random Duplication Estimates

• Random duplication is current convention for estimating cross-media plans’ net reach

( A + B) – ƒ (A X B)

• Actual data show duplication is systematic, not random » Varies by time period

» Varies by demographic target

Total Net Unduplicated Reach: PPM vs. Random Duplication Among P18+

Persons 18+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001

M-F 19:00-24:00

Random close M-F 8:00-10:00 enough for evening hours but off in other time periods.

M-F 6:00-8:00 PPM Random

0 20406080100

4 Total Net Unduplicated Reach: PPM vs. Random Duplication Among P35+

Persons 35+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001

M-F 19:00-24:00

Random M-F 8:00-10:00 underestimates reach in 2 of 3 time periods.

M-F 6:00-8:00 PPM Random

PPM’s “Real” Reach May Correct Random-Duplication Estimation

• In contrast to random duplication…

» PPM’s total reach differs most from random duplication between 8:00 and 10:00

» PPM’s reach exceeds random for Persons 18+ for Persons 35+

» PPM’s reach less than random for Persons 18-34

5 Total Net Unduplicated Reach: PPM vs. Random Duplication Among P18-34

Persons 18-34 Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001

M-F 19:00-24:00

Random M-F 8:00-10:00 overestimates reach in all time periods.

M-F 6:00-8:00 PPM Random

PPM Can Enable More Intelligent Media Campaign

• Understanding how to complement a million-dollar “Super Bowl” communications centerpiece • How to drive people to the Super Bowl, via which media • How to reinforce the Super Bowl centerpiece after the event

6 Super Bowl: Most Expensive Show of the Year and One of the Top-Rated in Any Given Year

Super Bowl Trends 50% $2.5

40% $2.0

30% $1.5

20% $1.0 Household Rating

10% $0.5 Cost of a :30 Ad ($ millions) of a :30 Cost Ad

0% $0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Super Bowl

7 Communication-Campaign Centerpiece: Enormous Super Bowl Reach

Men 18-49, Sun., Feb. 3, 2002, Philadelphia DMA® PPM Panel

Broadcast TV 18:00-19:00 65

19:00-20:00 74

20:00-21:00 68

21:00-22:00 68

0 20 40 60 80 100 Average Quarter-Hour Reach

Super Bowl Reach Excludes Most Other Same-Time Media: Minimal Duplication*

Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Sun., Feb 3, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

Other Broadcast TV 18:00-19:00 Cable TV

Radio Only 19:00-20:00

20:00-21:00

21:00-22:00

8 Investigation Design: Tracking Flow over PPM Panel

• Promote the centerpiece ad prior to the event • Reinforce the centerpiece after the event

AdvanceAdvance PromoPromo Thurs.,Thurs., Jan.Jan. 3131

SuperSuper BowlBowl Sun.,Sun., Feb.Feb. 33

Follow-UpFollow-Up Wed.,Wed., Feb.Feb. 66

Super Bowl Audience Duplication Highest in Peak-Media Time Periods

• Men 18-49 viewers of Super Bowl are most reachable in...

» Radio during morning-drive time

» Television in prime access and prime time

9 Reach of Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience by Other PPM-Measured Media, Jan 31, 2002

Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

Broadcast TV

8:00-9:00 Cable TV Radio

18:00-19:00

21:00-22:00

Reach of Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience by Other PPM- Measured Media, Feb 6, 2002

Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

Broadcast TV

8:00-9:00 Cable TV Radio

18:00-19:00

21:00-22:00

10 Fewer Media Contribute to Super Bowl’s Peak-Time Duplication

• About four radio stations account for about half of Morning Drive duplication • About two TV channels account for about half of evening Prime-Time duplication

8:00-9:00 Radio Reach of Men 18-49 Super Bowl Viewers by Five Key Radio Stations

Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, 8:00-9:00, Jan. 31 & Feb. 6, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

Top 4th

2nd 5th January 31 3rd 6th to 20th

February 6

11 21:00-22:00 TV Reach of Men 18- 49 Super Bowl Viewers by Three Key TV Stations

Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, 21:00-22:00, Jan. 31 & Feb. 6, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

Top

2nd January 31 3rd

4th to 8th

February 6

Few Media Also Contribute to the Smaller “Off-Peak” Duplication

• Two to three TV channels account for about half of the 18:00-19:00 duplication • Four to five radio stations account for about half of the 18:00-19:00 duplication • But the level of duplication is smaller

12 Thursday, 18:00-19:00 Net Reach of Target by Key TV & Radio Stations

Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Jan. 31, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

Top 4th

Jan. 31 All TV 2nd 5th

3rd Others

Jan. 31 Radio

Wednesday, 18:00-19:00 Net Reach of Target by Key TV & Radio Stations

Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Feb. 6, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel

Top 4th

Feb. 6 All TV* 2nd 5th 3rd Others

Feb. 6 Radio

13 Which Is the Best Communication Plan?

• Total reach among target? • Fewer channels, less complex plan? • More channels and more complexity? • Which time period is best?

The Most Efficient Plan...

• Targeted media with relatively small overall reach • During off-peak times • To build reach within target and minimize excess frequency and nontarget waste • As follows

14 Optimizing PPM-Measured Cross-Media Target Reach & Minimizing Nontarget Waste

100%

80%

60% Optimal Cost Range

40%

20% % Target% Reach (Freq. = 3)

0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Most Efficient Media to Complement Super Bowl Centerpiece

• Off-peak media • FM radio, and AM • Cable TV, especially targeted cable • Broadcast TV increases target coverage— but at a high cost

15 Another Way of Using Duplication Patterns

• For advertisers who find the Super Bowl unaffordable but need to reach the same audience: » Advertise on the other vehicles the Super Bowl viewers would use: radio drive time and TV early evening and prime time periods

• What can $150,000 deliver a local advertiser? One Spot on Super Bowl Radio Drive + TV Evening

GRPS 36 216 1+ Reach 36 >36

What It Means for Media Planning:

• True reach for radio and TV campaigns which we can then optimize on the basis of:

»Reach maximization: by vehicle and not just by media form

»Maximize communication effectiveness: delivering message when target is most open to hearing or seeing it

16 PPM Reports True Reach Across Radio and TV Vehicles

R1 R R R TV TV 6:00 2 3 4 1 2

TV3 TV4 R6 TV5

TV R TV R 12:00 6 5 7 7 R8 R9 TV5 TV8

TV R TV R R 18:00 9 13 10 10 16

TV11 R12 R11 TV14

TV R TV R TV 24:00 12 14 13 15 15

PPM Reports True Reach Across Radio and TV Vehicles

R1 R R R TV TV 6:00 2 3 4 1 2

TV3 TV4 R6 TV5

TV R TV R 12:00 6 5 7 7 R8 R9 TV5 TV8

TV R TV R R 18:00 9 13 10 10 16

TV11 R12 R11 TV14

TV R TV R TV 24:00 12 14 13 15 15

17 What It Means for Media Buying • Aids negotiations in cross- platform media buys »Multi-station ownership within markets

»Cross-media ownership Radio and TV

Almost Half of All Radio Stations in the Philadelphia Market Are Owned by Companies with Multiple Stations:

Owner Medium Station

Viacom Radio KYW-AM Television KYWD (CBS affiliate) WPSG (UPN affiliate)

Clear Channel Radio WDAS-AM WDAS-FM WIOQ-FM WJJZ-FM

Greater Media Radio WMGK-FM WMMR-FM WMWX-FM WPEN-AM

Beasley Radio WPTP-FM WTMR-AM WWDB-FM WXTU-FM

Infinity Radio WIP-AM WOGL-FM WPHT-AM WYSP-FM

Salem Radio WFIL-AM WZZD-AM

18 PPM Contributions

• Understanding target’s uses of multiple media

» Including correction of random duplication estimation

• Enabling more intelligent media campaigns, over time, across media • Fine-tuning principles of more effective, efficient planning