Trash & Treasures of Duplication Cross-Media Synergy Prospects from Arbitron’s Portable People Meters (PPM) By R. McConochie, Ph.D. Arbitron Inc. Beth Uyenco Optimum Media June 2002 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. Insights into Target’s Cross-Media Usage • Understanding target’s uses of multiple media » Including correction of random duplication estimation • Enabling more intelligent media campaigns, over time, across media • Fine-tuning principles of more effective, efficient planning 2 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 1 The First PPM Cross-Media Investigation, 2001 • PPM’s “real” cross-media data • Show variations in target duplication by time period 3 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. PPM 2001 Results Show Cross-Media Duplication Highest in Evening Persons 18+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001 TV Only M-F 6:00-8:00 Both TV & Radio Radio Only M-F 8:00-10:00 M-F 19:00-24:00 0 20406080100 Cume Percent 4 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 2 Narrower Targets Show Different Patterns of Duplication • Younger target shows more radio-TV duplication • Older target shows higher exclusive- TV cume 5 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 2001 Results Point to Cross- Media Target-Demo Variations Persons 18+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001 M-F 6:00-8:00 35+ TV Only 18-34 Both TV & Radio Radio Only M-F 8:00-10:00 35+ 18-34 M-F 19:00-24:00 35+ 18-34 0 20406080100 6 Cume Percent © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 3 PPM’s “Measured” Reach May Differ from What Random Duplication Estimates • Random duplication is current convention for estimating cross-media plans’ net reach ( A + B) – ƒ (A X B) • Actual data show duplication is systematic, not random » Varies by time period » Varies by demographic target 7 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. Total Net Unduplicated Reach: PPM vs. Random Duplication Among P18+ Persons 18+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001 M-F 19:00-24:00 Random close M-F 8:00-10:00 enough for evening hours but off in other time periods. M-F 6:00-8:00 PPM Random 0 20406080100 8 Cume Percent © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 4 Total Net Unduplicated Reach: PPM vs. Random Duplication Among P35+ Persons 35+ Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001 M-F 19:00-24:00 Random M-F 8:00-10:00 underestimates reach in 2 of 3 time periods. M-F 6:00-8:00 PPM Random 0 20406080100 Cume Percent 9 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. PPM’s “Real” Reach May Correct Random-Duplication Estimation • In contrast to random duplication… » PPM’s total reach differs most from random duplication between 8:00 and 10:00 » PPM’s reach exceeds random for Persons 18+ for Persons 35+ » PPM’s reach less than random for Persons 18-34 10 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 5 Total Net Unduplicated Reach: PPM vs. Random Duplication Among P18-34 Persons 18-34 Aggregated Radio & TV Cumes Among Encoded Media, PPM Wilmington Panel, 2001 M-F 19:00-24:00 Random M-F 8:00-10:00 overestimates reach in all time periods. M-F 6:00-8:00 PPM Random 0 20406080100 Cume Percent 11 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. PPM Can Enable More Intelligent Media Campaign • Understanding how to complement a million-dollar “Super Bowl” communications centerpiece • How to drive people to the Super Bowl, via which media • How to reinforce the Super Bowl centerpiece after the event 12 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 6 Super Bowl: Most Expensive Show of the Year and One of the Top-Rated in Any Given Year Super Bowl Trends 50% $2.5 40% $2.0 30% $1.5 20% $1.0 Household Rating 10% $0.5 Cost of a :30 Ad ($ millions) of a :30 Cost Ad 0% $0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 13 Source: Nielsen Media Research © 2002 Arbitron Inc. Super Bowl 14 Used with permission from the NFL. ArtVuelo Video © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 7 Communication-Campaign Centerpiece: Enormous Super Bowl Reach Men 18-49, Sun., Feb. 3, 2002, Philadelphia DMA® PPM Panel Broadcast TV 18:00-19:00 65 19:00-20:00 74 20:00-21:00 68 21:00-22:00 68 0 20 40 60 80 100 Average Quarter-Hour Reach 15 Cume Percent © 2002 Arbitron Inc. Super Bowl Reach Excludes Most Other Same-Time Media: Minimal Duplication* Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Sun., Feb 3, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel Other Broadcast TV 18:00-19:00 Cable TV Radio Only 19:00-20:00 20:00-21:00 21:00-22:00 0 20406080100 Total Cume Percent 16 * AQH cume duplication summed across individual measured media. © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 8 Investigation Design: Tracking Flow over PPM Panel • Promote the centerpiece ad prior to the event • Reinforce the centerpiece after the event AdvanceAdvance PromoPromo Thurs.,Thurs., Jan.Jan. 3131 SuperSuper BowlBowl Sun.,Sun., Feb.Feb. 33 Follow-UpFollow-Up Wed.,Wed., Feb.Feb. 66 17 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. Super Bowl Audience Duplication Highest in Peak-Media Time Periods • Men 18-49 viewers of Super Bowl are most reachable in... » Radio during morning-drive time » Television in prime access and prime time 18 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 9 Reach of Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience by Other PPM-Measured Media, Jan 31, 2002 Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel Broadcast TV 8:00-9:00 Cable TV Radio 18:00-19:00 21:00-22:00 0 20406080100 Total Cume Percent 19 * AQH cume duplication summed across individual measured media. © 2002 Arbitron Inc. Reach of Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience by Other PPM- Measured Media, Feb 6, 2002 Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel Broadcast TV 8:00-9:00 Cable TV Radio 18:00-19:00 21:00-22:00 0 20406080100 Total Cume Percent 20 * AQH cume duplication summed across individual measured media. © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 10 Fewer Media Contribute to Super Bowl’s Peak-Time Duplication • About four radio stations account for about half of Morning Drive duplication • About two TV channels account for about half of evening Prime-Time duplication 21 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 8:00-9:00 Radio Reach of Men 18-49 Super Bowl Viewers by Five Key Radio Stations Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, 8:00-9:00, Jan. 31 & Feb. 6, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel Top 4th 2nd 5th January 31 3rd 6th to 20th February 6 0 20406080100 Total Cume Percent 22 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 11 21:00-22:00 TV Reach of Men 18- 49 Super Bowl Viewers by Three Key TV Stations Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, 21:00-22:00, Jan. 31 & Feb. 6, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel Top 2nd January 31 3rd 4th to 8th February 6 0 20406080100 Total Cume Percent 23 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. Few Media Also Contribute to the Smaller “Off-Peak” Duplication • Two to three TV channels account for about half of the 18:00-19:00 duplication • Four to five radio stations account for about half of the 18:00-19:00 duplication • But the level of duplication is smaller 24 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 12 Thursday, 18:00-19:00 Net Reach of Target by Key TV & Radio Stations Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Jan. 31, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel Top 4th Jan. 31 All TV 2nd 5th 3rd Others Jan. 31 Radio 020406080100 Total Cume Percent * All TV includes both broadcast and cable. 25 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. Wednesday, 18:00-19:00 Net Reach of Target by Key TV & Radio Stations Men 18-49 Super Bowl Audience, Feb. 6, 2002, Philadelphia DMA PPM Panel Top 4th Feb. 6 All TV* 2nd 5th 3rd Others Feb. 6 Radio 0 20406080100 Total Cume Percent * All TV includes both broadcast and cable. 26 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 13 Which Is the Best Communication Plan? • Total reach among target? • Fewer channels, less complex plan? • More channels and more complexity? • Which time period is best? 27 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. The Most Efficient Plan... • Targeted media with relatively small overall reach • During off-peak times • To build reach within target and minimize excess frequency and nontarget waste • As follows 28 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 14 Optimizing PPM-Measured Cross-Media Target Reach & Minimizing Nontarget Waste 100% 80% 60% Optimal Cost Range 40% 20% % Target% Reach (Freq. = 3) 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 29 % Total Possible Spots/Cost © 2002 Arbitron Inc. Most Efficient Media to Complement Super Bowl Centerpiece • Off-peak media • FM radio, and AM • Cable TV, especially targeted cable • Broadcast TV increases target coverage— but at a high cost 30 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 15 Another Way of Using Duplication Patterns • For advertisers who find the Super Bowl unaffordable but need to reach the same audience: » Advertise on the other vehicles the Super Bowl viewers would use: radio drive time and TV early evening and prime time periods • What can $150,000 deliver a local advertiser? One Spot on Super Bowl Radio Drive + TV Evening GRPS 36 216 1+ Reach 36 >36 Source: Nielsen TV ratings and Arbitron Radio ratings for Philadelphia, Jan/Feb 2002 31 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. What It Means for Media Planning: • True reach for radio and TV campaigns which we can then optimize on the basis of: »Reach maximization: by vehicle and not just by media form »Maximize communication effectiveness: delivering message when target is most open to hearing or seeing it 32 © 2002 Arbitron Inc. 16 PPM Reports True Reach Across Radio and TV Vehicles R1 R R R TV TV 6:00 2 3 4 1 2 TV3 TV4 R6 TV5 TV R TV R 12:00 6 5 7 7 R8 R9 TV5 TV8 TV R TV R R 18:00 9 13 10 10 16 TV11 R12 R11 TV14 TV R TV R TV 24:00 12 14 13 15 15 33 © 2002 Arbitron Inc.