Ngā Ūranga Ki Pito-One Shared Path Project: Shared Path Demand and Design Assessment
TR2
SHARED PATH DEMAND
ASSESSMENT SHARED PATH DEMAND ASSESSMENT
AND DESIGN AND DESIGN REVIEW REVIEW
Quality Assurance
Prepared by Simon Kennett, Principal Multi-modal Advisor, Safe and Sustainable Technical Services, Transport Services, Waka Kotahi
Revision History: Revision Author Reviewer Approved for Issue Name Signature Name Signature Date June Simon Tim Gerry 25/09/2020 2020 Kennett Hughes Dance
Quality Information Document Title: Ngā Ūranga ki Pito-One Shared Path Project: Shared path demand and design assessment
Version: Final Date: 25 September 2020
Prepared by: Simon Kennett
Reviewed by: Tim Hughes Approved by: Gerry Dance
File Name: Disclaimer This report has been prepared with reference to the best guidelines and information available in mid-2020.
NGĀ ŪRANGA KI PITO-ONE SHARED PATH PROJECT: SHARED PATH DEMAND ASSESSMENT AND DESIGN REVIEW
1 Executive summary
The purpose of this assessment is to assess the likely demand for the Ngā Ūranga ki Pito-One Shared Path Project (Project), once constructed, and in light of that demand, review the proposed Project design. The Project has been developed by Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency (Waka Kotahi) and involves the construction of a shared path from the Ngā Ūranga Interchange to just south of the Pito-One Railway Station in the north.1 The Project is described in detail in section 4 of this report but, at a high level, involves the following: a) A rail overbridge (the shared path bridge) across the Hutt Valley Railway Line, connecting the shared path from Ngā Ūranga to the coastal edge; b) A path with a 5m surface width on existing and newly created land and coastal structures, on the seaward side of the Hutt Valley Railway Line; c) A varied coastal edge which incorporates ūranga (landings), a rocky revetment and the intermittent use of strategically placed seawalls along the path edge. The coastal edge treatment provides resilence, reflects the natural landscape, avoids sensitive habitat areas, provides for cultural expression and enhances amenity; d) Construction of new offshore habitat for coastal avifauna; e) Connections to the Pito-One to Melling (P2M) path and The Esplanade; f) Construction of a new Integrated Clubs Building at the eastern end of the Reserve and an associated car parking area; and g) A two-stage development of new cultural facilities at the Reserve, including: i. Construction of three temporary Tāwharau Pods, consisting of three small building pods designed to accommodate a range of cultural or community uses, at the eastern end of the Reserve; and ii. Post-construction, the construction of a whare to the west of Korokoro Stream, and permanent relocation of the Tāwharau Pods to a site adjacent to the Project at the western end of the Reserve.
The Project will deliver a critical link in the existing walking and cycling network by providing a high quality and safe shared path between Ngā Ūranga and Pito-One. The existing facilities in this area are substandard and unsafe. Once constructed, the Project will connect with other paths and future projects at the northern and southern ends, and provide a key link in the network. Together with other projects, the Project forms part of Te Ara Tupua programme of works. The Project also aligns directly with Government Policy Statement objectives.
Demand for the Project, once constructed, has been estimated with reference to a previous estimate but updated to reflect more accurate and recent information about shared path use. The estimate has also had reference to existing background growth in active modes in the region, population growth and urban development, comparison with similar projects and demand estimates and other anticipated developments in the network. This assessment has found that:
• Within 12 months of completion of the Project, path use will grow to an average of 1,812 visits (total of both directions) per weekday, with 75% of users being people on bikes. AM peak hour use is expected to be 320 people. • A similar number of visits are expected on an average weekend day, although with a significantly higher proportion of users being on foot. • Between 2025 and 2035, path use is expected to double.
1 This report uses the preferred Te Reo spelling of Ngā Ūranga and Pito-One even where the official name may instead use Ngauranga or Petone.
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The proposed design for the Project has been assessed with reference to the above assessment. In general terms, the proposed design is adequate. A key consideration is path width. The proposed path width for this Project is appropriate as it will cater well for immediate and future demand. In particular, the 5m width proposed for the majority of the Project route is necessary to future-proof the Project should demand grow to such a level that separation of cyclists and pedestrians is required in the future. Matters that will require careful consideration in the detailed design phase include:
• The path's design through Honiana Te Puni Reserve; • Markings along the Project route to manage potential conflicts between users; • The gradient and frequency of landings on the shared path bridge; • Path surfaces; and • Lighting design. In conclusion, the Project will deliver a high-quality facility between Ngā Ūranga and Pito-One and provide a critical link in the overall cycling and walking network. The proposed Project design is appropriate for the anticipated level of demand, and in particular, the proposed path width of 5m along the majority of the Project route is appropriate and necessary.
This report has been prepared in support of the notices of requirement and applications for resource consent for the Project made by Waka Kotahi under the COVID-19 Recovery (Fast-track Consenting) Act 2020 (COVID-19 Recovery Act). In particular, this report supports the assessment of the Project's effects on the environment as required by the COVID-19 Recovery Act. The requirements of the COVID-19 Recovery Act and an overall assessment of the effects of the Project on the environment are set out in the Assessment of Effects on the Environment.
2 Purpose of assessment
The purpose of this assessment is to:
• Consider the existing environment for cyclists and pedestrians travelling between Ngā Ūranga and Pito-One; • Assess the likely demand for the proposed shared path once completed; • Assess and review the proposed design of the shared path against its anticipated demand; and • Make recommendations for any changes required to the design and/or operation of the shared path to ensure it is fit for purpose and its positive benefits are maximised as much as possible within site constraints.
3 Qualifications and experience
Simon Kennett of Waka Kotahi’s Safe and Sustainable Transport Team, Transport Services, has been engaged to undertake this assessment. I have the following qualifications and experience:
• I hold a Bachelor of Science degree (geography), Victoria University, 2001. • I hold a Diploma in Environmental Management, Auckland University, 1999. • I am currently a Principal Multi-modal Advisor in the Safe and Sustainable Transport Team, Transport Services at Waka Kotahi, having been with Waka Kotahi since 2015. Key roles include managing Waka Kotahi's cycling network and design guidance, managing development of research into best practice shared path design and regulation, co-delivering courses on cycle safety and cycleway design, and reviewing major cycleway designs from around the country. • I was a member of the New Zealand Cycling Safety Panel in 2013-14.
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• I was previously an Active Transport and Road Safety Coordinator at Greater Wellington Regional Council (2009-2015). Key roles included chairing the Regional Active Transport Forum, managing development of the regional walking and cycling journey planner, development of the 2015 regional strategic walking and cycling network maps, and review of walking and cycling policies in the Wellington region. • I was previously a Partner at Kennett Brothers Ltd (cycling writers, publishers, event organisers, consultants, trail designers and builders) (1994-2009). My role included co- writing ‘RIDE – the story of cycling in New Zealand’, work on several council cycling strategies, and coordinating the development of the national cycling advocates network (for Waka Kotahi). I confirm that I have read the Code of Conduct for expert witnesses contained in the Environment Court Practice Note 2014. This assessment has been prepared in compliance with that Code. In particular, unless I state otherwise, this assessment is within my area of expertise and I have not omitted to consider material facts known to me that might alter or detract from the opinions I express. I have made my employer (Waka Kotahi) aware of my obligation to give independent expert advice when giving evidence under this Code of Conduct.
4 Project description
The Project is part of Te Ara Tupua programme of works, which involves the development of pedestrian and cyclist facilities between Wellington CBD, Pito-One and Melling. The Project involves the construction of a shared path from the Ngā Ūranga Interchange to just south of the Pito-One Railway Station in the north and associated works as shown in Figure 1. The Project will cater for active transport modes including cycling and walking, and will provide an alternative to the existing State Highway 2 (SH2) cycle path located between the Hutt Valley Railway Line and the southbound SH2 carriageway. Works at Honiana Te Puni Reserve (the Reserve) provide for the removal and replacement of the existing Wellington Rowing Association and Wellington Water Ski Club facilities at, and adjacent to, the Reserve and the introduction of new cultural facilities into the Reserve.
The primary objective of the Project and wider Te Ara Tupua programme is to provide safe walking and cycling infrastructure between Wellington and the Hutt Valley which will act as a catalyst for increased use of active transport modes. The Project will also provide increased transport resilience, improve connections and integration with planned and existing walking and cycling infrastructure in Wellington City and Hutt City and reconnect people with this long-inaccessible part of the harbour’s edge.
The Project will provide a 4.5km-long shared path between Ngā Ūranga and Pito-One featuring the following key elements: h) A rail overbridge (the shared path bridge) across the Hutt Valley Railway Line, connecting the shared path from Ngā Ūranga to the coastal edge; i) A path with a 5m surface width on existing and newly created land and coastal structures, on the seaward side of the Hutt Valley Railway Line; j) A varied coastal edge which incorporates ūranga (landings), a rocky revetment and the intermittent use of strategically placed seawalls along the path edge. The coastal edge treatment provides resilence, reflects the natural landscape, avoids sensitive habitat areas, provides for cultural expression and enhances amenity; k) Construction of new offshore habitat for coastal avifauna; l) Connections to the Pito-One to Melling (P2M) path and The Esplanade; m) Construction of a new Integrated Clubs Building at the eastern end of the Reserve and an associated car parking area; and n) A two-stage development of new cultural facilities at the Reserve, including: iii. Construction of three temporary Tāwharau Pods, consisting of three small building pods designed to accommodate a range of cultural or community uses, at the eastern end of the Reserve; and
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iv. Post-construction, the construction of a Whare to the west of Korokoro Stream, and permanent relocation of the Tāwharau Pods to a site adjacent to the Project at the western end of the Reserve2.
For description and assessment purposes in this report, the Project has been divided into three sectors (as shown in Figure 1 below). These are: Sector 1 Ngā Ūranga Interchange and Bridge Crossing:
The Southern Construction Yard and the connection from the Ngā Ūranga Interchange via the shared path bridge across the Hutt Valley Railway Line, to the coastal edge.
Sector 2 Ngā Ūranga to the Reserve - Path and Ūranga: The typical shared path, rock revetment, ūranga, seawall structures and offshore habitats between Ngā Ūranga and the Reserve; and
Sector 3 The Reserve and Pito-One to Melling (P2M) Connection: Shared path connection to P2M adjacent to the Reserve, connections to the Reserve and The Esplanade, the Northern Construction Yard, Integrated Clubs Building, associated car parking, the temporary and permanent Tāwharau Pods and the Whare.
Figure 1: Project sectors
2 The construction of the Whare and Tāwharau Pods is at Taranaki Whānui’s discretion
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A full description of the Project including design and operation is provided in Chapter 3 Description of the Project in the Assessment of Effects on the Environment (AEE).
A description of the potential construction methodology that could be used to construct the Project is provided in Chapter 4 Construction of the Project of the AEE.
5 Existing environment and strategic context
5.1 Existing environment
The existing walking and cycling environment between Ngā-Ūranga and Pito-One is set out in detail in Technical Report 3: Integrated Transport Assessment. The existing and future recreational values/uses are set out in detail in the Recreation Review: Effects Assessment and Future Recreation Values. I concur with those reports’ description of the existing environment and summarise the key points below:
• At the southern end of the Project there are cycle shoulders, and the existing SH2 cycle path (existing cycle path). Cyclists commuting between the Hutt Valley and Wellington have the option of using the shoulders of SH2 and/or the existing cycle path (between the Hutt Valley Railway Line and SH2). • Cyclists travelling south are required to use the SH2 shoulder for 800 metres south of the Pito-One Interchange and then choose between the SH2 shoulder or the existing cycle path. • Cyclists travelling north are discouraged from using the existing cycle path due to the missing section near Pito-One, where it is illegal to cycle northbound. • On SH2 there is no physical barrier or separation between road users and the cycle lane. Most of the cycle routes available are, at best, only suitable for confident cyclists, and indeed many experienced cyclists avoid it (especially since the fatality in early 2020). • The state of the existing cycle path is also not desirable for cyclists given it is narrow, poorly maintained and the quality of the surface is poor. This makes it difficult to use, particularly for road bikes that require a smooth surface. Further, the existing cycle path, is poorly lit at night and prone to flooding in poor weather. • Pedestrians are able to use the existing cycle path, however, at the 800 metre section south of the Pito-One Interchange, pedestrians must walk on the SH2 shoulder which has no physical protection from the traffic lanes. • The existing environment does not provide a good facility for micro mobility, such as e- scooters, given the standard of the existing cycle path and exposure to high speed traffic along the shoulders on SH2. There are a number of existing local and regional connections relevant to the Project, including:
• at the southern end of the Project, there is the separate off-road path and paths on the Ngā-Ūranga Gorge connecting to Newlands and Johnsonville; • at the northern end of the Project, there is the Pito-One Foreshore, local road and footpath network and SH2 shoulders; • at the northern end, the Project will also connect with existing regional and national cycle networks, including the Hutt Valley cycle network (which includes the Hutt River Trail), Wainuiomata Hill Shared Path, the Eastbourne shared path; and the Remutaka Cycle Trail.
5.2 Strategic context
The strategic context for the Project is set out in detail in the Technical Report 1: Strategic Transport Assessment. Again, I concur with that report’s assessment of the strategic context and summarise key points relevant to my assessment below:
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• The Project supports the Government Policy Statement’s ("GPS") objectives for active modes. The GPS states that it "supports investment towards improving the safety of cyclists and pedestrians. Improving the safety of cycling and walking is a key part of improving accessibility and encouraging uptake of cycling and walking as preferred transport modes. It also enables transport choice.”3. The GPS further states that the GPS supports investment in: "delivering critical missing links in the urban cycling network in areas of high demand (for example, between…Wellington City Centre and Lower Hutt)”.4 • The Project is part of the wider Te Ara Tupua programme of works, which aims to provide a safe and efficient walking and cycling route between Wellington and Lower Hutt. • In particular, the Project will connect, at its northern end, to the P2M section of Te Ara Tupua. The P2M project began construction in 2019 and will provide a safe, separated path for cyclists between a location south of the Pito-One railway station and the Hutt River Trail at Bridge Street (Normandale). • At the southern end, the Project will connect the Wellington CBD to Ngā Ūranga section of Te Ara Tupua: o Large sections of that part of the route are already complete. The existing shared path adjacent to Hutt Road has been upgraded between Tinakori Road and the Caltex service station south of Onslow Road. The section from the Caltex service station to Ngā Ūranga is expected to be widened before the Project opens. o The section south of Tinakori Road (along Thorndon Quay) is being investigated as part of the Let’s Get Wellington Moving (LGWM) project • The Project will deliver the most critical link between Wellington and the Hutt Valley due to the lack of existing facilities and the high-speed traffic environment.
Figure 2: Te Ara Tupua (Wellington to Hutt Valley Walking and Cycling Project)5
3 Page 12 of the Government Policy Statement 2018: https://www.transport.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Our-Work/Documents/c6b0fea45a/Government- Policy-Statement-on-land-transport-2018.pdf 4 Page 17 of the Government Policy Statement 2018. 5 https://nzta.govt.nz/assets/projects/wellington-to-hutt-valley-walking-and-cycling-link/w2hvc- overview2.pdf
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5.3 Conclusion on existing environment and strategic context The existing environment currently does not provide for a safe and efficient cycling and walking route between Wellington and Lower Hutt. The use of the Project area by pedestrians and cyclists is limited and the ability for the community to utilise this area for recreational and commuter purposes is not being fully realised.
The Project will not only address the lack of facilities in this location but will also link with the wider transport network programme and provide a critical link in this programme of works.
6 Cycling and walking demand analysis
This section provides an estimate of use/demand for the shared path once it is completed.
An estimate was previously included in Aecom’s ‘Wellington to Hutt Valley Cycle and Pedestrian Link Detailed Business Case’ (2015) where it was estimated that there would be an average of 730 cyclists and 50 walkers/runners using the new path between Ngā Ūranga and Pito-One each day, in the year after opening.
However, significant developments have occurred since 2015, which mean the 2015 estimate should be reviewed and revised. In this section, I describe the methodology I have used to develop a more realistic estimate of use/demand for the shared path. Rather than updating the estimate using the methodology in Research Report 340 (Estimating demand for new cycling facilities in New Zealand, 2007), this more recent estimate is based on growth in cycling and walking observed over the last decade along similar paths in Australasia. Experience over the last five years suggests that we should expect far greater uptake of high-quality paths than previously observed, in part due to a surge in the uptake of e-bikes/e-scooters and also due to significant improvements in the quality of ‘best practice’ shared path design since the launch of the Urban Cycleways Programme in 2015. This section is structured as follows:
6.1 – Summary and review of previous estimate
6.2 – Estimate of use 6.3 – Existing background growth in active modes in Greater Wellington
6.4 – Population growth and urban development
6.5 – Comparison with growth experienced where similar paths have been constructed 6.6 – Comparison with other demand estimates
6.7 – Other Cycling Network Developments expected to Grow Demand by 2025
6.8 – Conclusion.
6.1 Summary and review of previous estimate
As noted above, an estimate was previously included in Aecom’s ‘Wellington to Hutt Valley Cycle and Pedestrian Link Detailed Business Case’ (2015) where it was estimated that there would be an average of 730 cyclists and 50 walkers/runners using the new path between Ngā Ūranga and Pito- One each day, in the year after opening. However, recent developments have seen a much stronger demand for long shared use paths than previously expected or experienced. There are several reasons for this as follows:
• There has been a sustained surge in e-mobility (due to significant improvements in battery and controller technology, and e-bike affordability). Attached as Appendix A to this report
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is information on e-bike imports which shows the developing popularity of this mode of transportation. • The wider cycling network has been developed, including o sealing of the western end of The Esplanade shared path; o completion of the Wainuiomata shared path; o upgrade of the Hutt Road cycleway between Caltex and Thorndon Quay; o installation of a cycle lane on Featherston Street (south of Bunny Street); o minor safety improvements on SH2 between Belmont and Ngā Ūranga; o completion of 500m of cycle path north of Ngā Ūranga; and o sealing of several kilometres of the Hutt River Trail (north of Avalon). • Cycling has been promoted with the ‘Ride More – Feel More’ campaign and Aotearoa Bike Challenge. • There has been a decline in on-road recreational cycling in favour of cycling away from traffic (e.g. cycle trail and gravel road riding). For example, there was a decline of the Taupo Cycle Challenge and at the same time a surge in popularity of New Zealand Cycle Trail trails and ‘Bike-packing’. • Trails such as the Remutaka Cycle Trail have been designated and promoted as ‘Great Rides’. • There has been a rise in population (e.g. 1.3% per annum in Lower Hutt from 2013 to 2019). • Recent experience with the development of high-quality cycleways demonstrates that there is a much higher demand for separated facilities than previously suggested in Research Report 340 (Estimating demand for new cycling facilities in New Zealand, 2007). Although Aecom’s methodology was sound in 2015, it was conservative and should now be revised in light of the recent developments referred to above as well as the following:
• The proportion of riders likely to stay on a highway after a high-quality shared path is constructed is low. This is demonstrated by the fact that only 2.7% of southbound Hutt Road cyclists are staying on the road since the shared path has been upgraded. • The large step-change in use experienced on other projects when a popular cycling route is upgraded from level of service (LOS) D/E (i.e. on-road shoulders next to a high volume of traffic) to LOS A/B (fully separated shared use path with ample width). • The high background growth in cycling in Wellington as documented in reports such as Greater Wellington’s State of Cycling Report 22001-2012.6 • Improvements in e-bike performance and affordability, which have significantly increased the appeal of cycle commutes over 5 km in length. Research in seven European cities (by A Castro et al, 2019) found that the average e-bike trip was 9.4km compared with an average trip length of 4.8km on conventional bikes. An additional factor to be taken into account is the ‘network effect’ – an increase in the use of this Project’s shared path can be expected as a result of the upgrade or construction of other parts of the cycling network that feed into it. The network has seen some significant development since 2016, and design and construction are well underway on further parts of the network (to be completed prior to the completion of the Project or soon after, as referred to above in section 5).
Any assumption that the completion of the shared path would lead to 100% of existing riders voluntarily switching from the road to the path would be unrealistic. Even given the recent fatality on SH2 by the BP service station, it is likely a small percentage will continue to ride on the highway shoulder because they can travel slightly faster there. Based on the level of road riding on the Kapiti Expressway and former SH1, it is reasonable to assume that approximately 5-10% of the current riders will stick to the highway after the shared path is completed (with 5% based on a path width of 5m, vs 10% based on a path width of 3m).
Based on recent experience with similar projects, Aecom’s step change estimate of 62% is conservative. A step change of 100% or more in cycling numbers in the first year now appears
6 https://www.gw.govt.nz/assets/Transport/Walking-and-Cycling/StateofCyclingReport2001- 2012.pdf.
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realistic, assuming significant promotion, completion of the P2M shared path, and an upgrade in cycling LOS along Thorndon Quay.
On top of the growth in cycling between Pito-One and Ngā Ūranga, the step change increase in recreational walking/running and transport device (e.g. e-scooters, e-skateboards, etc) use is likely to be very high. The highest growth experienced on the Wainuiomata Hill shared path was in walking. While walkers greatly outnumber cyclists on the Wainuiomata shared path, this is partly due to this route being very hilly (cyclists are much more grade-sensitive than walkers).
This contrasts with use of the much longer and more utilitarian Northwestern shared path, where pedestrians make up only around 17% of users (and cyclists 83%). Pedestrian mode share of 17% is also predicted by FLOW’s mode share assessment for the section of Northern Pathway between Sulphur Beach and Stafford Road. While the Project will be less accessible for short neighbourhood walks, it will appeal to walkers and runners keen on exercise routes uninterrupted by roads, fishers keen to access a sheltered part of the harbour, and pedestrian activity associated with the Integrated Clubs Building and new whare at the Reserve.
Transport devices users (i.e. e-scooter riders) grew from virtually zero to 5% mode share at the Kingsland end of the Northwestern shared path between 2015 and 2019. Based on improving technology and the enabling rules proposed in the Accessible Streets package, growth in transport device mode share is likely to remain strong. However, existing shared e-scooters are not inexpensive to hire and are of the stand-up variety, so are better suited to short trips. We have estimated that transport device users will make up 10% of total path users on weekdays in 2025. A large portion of transport device trips are likely to be recreational in nature. In 2020, with the benefit of several more years of cycle count data, it is looking likely that the post- construction annual growth in cycle commuting between Hutt Valley and Wellington will exceed Aecom’s 2015 estimate of 6% per annum. for the first ten years, followed by 3% per annum. Even in the current scenario, the background growth of cycling at the SH2 off-ramp on Hutt Road has been approximately 8% per annum since 2015.
The next section explains how the demand/use estimate has been re-calculated, taking the above factors into account.
6.2 Revised estimates of use on the Ngā Ūranga to Pito-One Shared Path
The revised demand estimate carried out for this report has resulted in the following estimates:
• It is estimated that within 12 months of completion of the Project, path use will grow to an average of 1,812 visits (total of both directions) per weekday, with 75% of users being people on bikes. AM peak hour use is expected to be 320 people. • A similar number of visits are expected on an average weekend day, although with a significantly higher proportion of users being on foot. • Path use is expected to double between 2025 and 2035. This estimate is based on the following assumptions, for weekday use:
• Assumption 1: In order to predict the base use at the shared path’s opening (2024), the same assumptions in the Aecom 2015 estimate have been applied. This is based on: o 450 cyclists per day in 2015. o A conservative prediction of growth of 2% per annum from 2020 to 2024. While a higher level of growth (8% per annum) has been experienced at the Hutt Road/SH2 off-ramp since 2015, and is likely to have been experienced between Pito-One and Ngā Ūranga, a lower level of growth is now expected following the death of a person cycling on this section of highway in early 2020. Also, with the COVID-19 pandemic likely to lead to a recession, commuting numbers may stagnate for a number of years (as seen during the Global Financial Crisis). o Therefore, base use in 2024, prior to the shared path opening, is expected to be approximately 715 cyclists per day.
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o In addition, approximately 2-5 pedestrians per day are assumed in the base case (based on observations by the author and the Strava heatmap, which is provided in Appendix B). o One e-scooter rider has also been seen using the road shoulder regularly in 2020 and so 1 e-scooter user per day has also been assumed in the base use scenario.
• Assumption 2: 95% of current cyclists will shift to the shared path once it is open (based on a path width of 5m). There will also be a step-change increase of 60-150% within the first 12 months. For the purpose of this estimate, an initial step change of 100% within 12 months of completion has been assumed. This assumes extensive development of the wider cycling network (as outlined above in Section 5) and vigorous promotion of the Project around the time of the shared path completion.
• Assumption 3: Walkers/runners will make up approximately 15% of total weekday users, as they do on the Northwestern shared path near Kingsland. The majority of these users will walk or run only a portion of the path, mostly starting and finishing at the Pito-One end.
• Assumption 4: Transport device users will make up approximately 10% of total weekday users (based on a doubling of their current proportion of users of the Northwestern shared path). Higher mode share is possible but would largely be at the expense of walking and cycling mode share, so will not affect overall numbers greatly.
• Assumption 5: Based on the strong growth in cycling along this corridor, and on the Northwestern shared path where growth in cycling has averaged 17% per annum since 2015, 10% per annum growth in cycling and transport device use has conservatively been assumed for the first five years after the initial step-change, followed by 5% per annum for the second five years, and 2% per annum from 2035-2050. Without the boost given by the e-bike and transport device boom, or the cycling ‘network effect’, pedestrian use is expected to grow at 6% per annum in the first five years (i.e. similar to the ratio of pedestrian vs cycling growth seen on the Northwestern shared path over the last four years).
• Assumption 6: Based on the Northwestern shared path use, the 95th percentile of user numbers will be close to 50% higher than the mean. If the shared path begins to feel too crowded, some recreational users will choose to go elsewhere.
The estimated numbers derived from the assumptions above are set out in Table 1 below. Table 1 - Estimated average weekday use (both ways)
Mode Base use Users 12 Users by Users by Users by (prior to months after 2030 (based 2035 (based 2050 (based opening, completion on cyclist on growth of on growth of 2024) (2025) and transport 5% per 2% per assuming device annum for all annum for all step change growth of modes) modes) of 100% in 10% per cycling (and annum and 5% use the 6% for highway) pedestrians) Cyclists 715 1,359 2,189 2,794 3,760 Walkers/runners 2 272* 364 465 626 Transport 1 181 292 372 501 device riders Total mean use 721 1812 2,845 3,631 4,887 95th percentile 1,081 2,718 4,268 5,447 7,331 * Only around 50 of these walkers/runners are expected to travel the full length of the shared path.
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In order to estimate the weekday AM peak hour use, the following additional assumption has been applied:
• Assumption 6: The weekday AM Peak Hour use will be 20% of the daily total for cyclists, 8% of the daily total for walkers/runners, and 15% of the daily total for transport device riders. The estimated numbers given by applying these assumptions are shown in Table 2 below.
Table 2 - Estimated average AM Peak Hour use
Weekday AM Peak 2025 2030 2035 2050 Hour Users Cyclists 271 438 559 752 Walkers/runners 22 29 37 50 Transport device 27 44 56 75 riders Total 320 511 652 877 95th percentile 480 767 978 1,316
In order to estimate the likely weekend use, the following additional assumption has been applied:
• Assumption 7: The following weekday/weekend ratios have been applied based on experience on similar projects: o A ratio of 1:1.8 for pedestrians based on experience on the Wainuiomata Hill shared path; o A ratio of 1:0.8 for cyclists based on experience on the Northern shared path near Te Atatu (the actual ratio on the Northern shared path is 1:1.05, however, cycling is prohibited on the adjacent highway and off-road cycling options are less common, therefore 1:0.8 has been assumed for this Project); o A ratio of 1:1.5 for transport device users, based on the assumption that transport device use will be largely recreational. The estimated numbers resulting from applying these assumptions are shown in Table 3 below.
Table 3 - Estimated average weekend day use
Weekend-day Users by 2025 Users by 2030 Users by 2035 Users by 2050 Both ways after path (based on 10% (based on 5% (based on 2% opening step p.a. growth after p.a. growth p.a. growth after change 2025) after 2030) 2035) Cyclists 1,087 1,751 2,235 3,008 Walkers/runners 490 655 837 1,127 Transport device 272 438 558 751 riders Total 1,849 2,844 3,630 4,886 95th percentile 2,774 4,266 5,445 7,329
While these weekend daily use estimates are higher than the weekday estimates, the peaks will be less pronounced. For an idea of how shared path use might be distributed between the weekday versus weekend days in 2025, see Figure 3 below. This model of hourly use is based on observed pedestrian use of the Wainuiomata shared path and cycling use of the Hutt Road shared path.
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Estimated use at North end of Path by Mode and Hour of Day in 2025 Transport Devices weekday Transport Devices weekend day Pedestrians weekday Pedestrians weekend day Cycle weekday Cycle weekend day
300
250
200
150
100 Estimated useper hour
50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour of day
Figure 3: Estimated use at North end of shared path.
The following sections explain in more detail the basis for the assumptions used to derive an estimate of use/demand for the shared path.
6.3 Existing background growth in active modes in Greater Wellington
Against the national trend, Wellington saw growth in active travel mode share between 1986 and 2006, albeit starting from a low base. The trend continues and is supported by a well-developed public transport system, limited and costly car parking, and the lowest rate of motor vehicle ownership in New Zealand. This is demonstrated in Figure 4 below.
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Figure 4: Proportion of trips taken by cycling and walking across six cities
Despite little development in Wellington’s cycling network up to recent years, there has been strong growth in the Wellington City Council’s Cycle Commuter Survey Count since 2004 (see Figure 5 below). This indicates growing enthusiasm for cycling as a transport choice, motivated by a range of benefits and concerns.
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Figure 5: Commuter cycle volumes 2001-2019 (Figure 8-1, Transport Monitoring Surveys, May 2019, Stantec)
The closest historical cycling count to the Project is at SH2 off-ramp at Jarden Mile, Ngā Ūranga. Cycling to or from this location involves mixing with traffic that is often travelling at high speed – a risky endeavour that is not appealing to a large percentage of the population (particularly women, as shown in Appendix C).
As shown in Figure 6 below, a count at this location shows 70 cyclists/peak hour in 2009 climbed 133% to 163/peak hour in 2019 (from WCC data).
This equates to an average of 7% growth per annum since 2009. The growth between 2014 and 2019 is slightly higher, at an average of 8% per annum (compound growth). This change in growth may be explained in part by the increased availability, quality and affordability of e-bikes. Appendix A provides information about e-bike and e-scooter imports and shows that New Zealand e-bike imports have grew from approximately 15,000 to 38,000 between 2016 and 2019, while e-scooter imports grew from a few hundred to more than 25,000 over the same period.
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Figure 6: Results of the WCC cycle count at the SH2 off-ramp onto Hutt Road/Jarden Mile, Ngā Ūranga.
A significant factor influencing cycling uptake over the long term has been the cost and time of cycle commuting between Pito-One and Wellington relative to the main alternatives of driving or catching the train. Table 4 below illustrates indicative costs for the 13-kilometre return trip between the corner of Richmond and Jackson Streets and the corner of Willis Street and Lambton Quay during the AM and PM peaks. This Table shows that cycling is much cheaper than travelling by train or car, and is comparative in terms of time. Table 4 – Cost and time of trip by mode for a return trip between Pito-One and Wellington CBD
Mode Cost Time Cycle $2.60 (at 10c/km, author’s 35 min (at an average speed of estimate of typical running cost) 25 kph; incl 4 mins to change clothes) Train $8.40 (using 10-trip ticket) 35 min (based on Metlink timetable; incl a 10 min walk at each end of the train trip + 3 min wait at station) Car $23.80 (at 30c/km, the standard 28 min** (incl 3 min walk from IRD rate for a mid-size car, plus car park) $16* parking fee)
* Parking rates vary greatly in Wellington. The standard ‘Earlybird’ rate for commuter parking at a Wilson Parking facility is between $16 and $22. Many drivers have free work car parks, while others pay more than the ‘Earlybird’ rate. ** Driving times vary significantly depending on traffic conditions. A typical commute time is used here (Source, BlipTrack by Beca).
In summary, existing background growth in cycling trips in Wellington City shows that there is growing interest in cycling as a mode of transport, despite the overall cycling network having a level of service that is unattractive to a large portion of the population.
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6.3 Population growth and urban development
Population growth in Hutt City is forecast to continue at around 1% per annum. Approximately 80% of new dwellings are expected to be provided through residential intensification in Lower Hutt central city, Pito-One (within easy cycling distance of the Project) and other locations along the public transport corridor (which will be serviced by the Beltway Cycleway). This is demonstrated in Figure 7 below, which comes from the ‘Lower Hutt Growth Story’, which is a living document put together by HCC, GWRC and Waka Kotahi for planning purposes
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Figure 7: Location of growth/new developments across Lower Hutt (Source, Lower Hutt Growth Story, HCC, March 2018)
Population growth in Hutt City and residential densification in Lower Hutt and Pito-One will be a significant contributor to growth in use of the path, particularly after the initial period of mode shift and recreational discovery of the path begins to wane.
6.4 Comparison with growth experienced where similar paths have been constructed
This section summarises recent experience with similar projects throughout New Zealand and overseas. These comparable projects have been used to inform the assumptions applied to estimate the anticipated use/demand for this Project, as explained above in Section 6.2 of this report.
6.4.1 Wainuiomata shared path
The new 4m wide Wainuiomata shared path was completed in 2019. Table 5 below illustrates the significant increase in active users (pedestrians and cyclists) of the Wainuiomata Hill route since the completion of the shared path, recorded through a counter on the shared path. The Table records the number of active users heading down the path per month. The path user data comes from an in-situ counter. An estimate of road cycling use has been made using the Strava heatmap (Appendix C) and segment data, which suggests that most road cyclists have moved to the path.
Table 5 – Increases in walking and cycling before and after construction of the Wainuiomata Hill shared path
Wainuiomata Hill Shared Path Bicycle and Pedestrian Counter Counter Location: Lower Hutt side Direction: Downhill towards Lower Hutt November 2018 November 2019 Difference Pedestrians 1,105 2,783 152% pedestrians Cyclists 137 (+273 road cyclists) = 594 (+60 road 60% cyclists 410 cyclists) = 654 Combined 1,515 3,437 127% active users
Table 5 shows the number of people travelling downhill. The number of cyclists riding up the Wainuiomata shared path is much higher, but that is most likely attributable to mountain bikers opting for the shared path when travelling uphill (the gradient is less and the surface is more efficient) on their way to mountain bike trails, so is not comparable with the Project situation. Therefore, Table 5 only shows the number of downhill users of the path heading towards the Hutt Valley. The relatively low number of cyclists compared with pedestrians is understandable given that cyclists are more grade-sensitive and the Wainuiomata Hill is a steep, 200m high climb.
Pedestrian use is dominated by weekend recreational use (see Figure 8 below).
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Daily Average Cycle and Pedestrian Count Wainuiomata SUP (Lower Hutt Side) Northbound Users in Q1 of 2019
Average Bicycle Count Average Pedestrian Count
86 77
54 48 44 41 42
16 11 7 6 7 6 6
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Figure 8: Average daily count of cyclists and pedestrians on Wainuiomata Hill shared path.
Figure 8 shows that the ratio of typical weekday use to typical weekend day use is 1:1.8 for pedestrians.
6.4.2 Northwestern Cycleway shared path
The 3m wide Northwestern Cycleway shared path is over 11 km long and runs generally parallel with SH16 from Massey into the Auckland CBD. A cycling counter at Te Atatu (11km from the CBD) has been collecting data since late 2010. Since then, cycling use has been growing by an average of 9% per annum. (See Figure 9 below.) This growth has been supported by cycling network developments in the Auckland CBD and cycling promotion.
The higher, 17% per annum growth rate over the last five years is consistent with the high growth of e-bike and e-scooter imports to New Zealand (see Appendix A). In Electric City: E-bikes and the future of cycling in New Zealand (Wild and Woodward 2018) it was noted that e-bikes had made longer commutes and trip-chaining significantly easier, making cycling more realistic for women. While women made up only 27% of cyclists on the Northwestern shared path, they made up 41% of e-cyclists. This shared path is not a particularly scenic route, however, it is one of the longest ‘safe’, sealed cycling routes in Auckland, and recreational use is high. The ratio of average weekday use to average weekend use in January 2020 is 1:1.05.
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Northwestern SUP Cycle Counts at Te Atatu 300000
250000
200000
150000
100000 Annual Cycle Totals CountCycle Annual 50000
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Figure 9: Cycle count on the Northwestern Cycleway shared path
Figure 10 shows daily pedestrian counts on the Northwestern shared path at Kingsland (the only location with a pedestrian counter). The trendline suggests average daily pedestrian numbers have increased from approximately 150 to 230. This equates to growth of around 10% per annum. Note that seasonal variation has increased over time.
Daily Pedestrian Count on Northwestern SUP, at Kingsland, 2016-2019 600
500
400
300
200 Daily Daily Pedestrian Count 100
0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Number of days since 1st Jan 2016
Figure 10: Daily pedestrian count on the Northwestern shared path
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6.4.3 Freemantle Railway Principal Shared Path (PSP) Completion of a 3km section of the Freemantle Railway PSP (shown as the southern end of the blue line near the coast in Figure 11 below)) in August 2019, combined with a vigorous promotion, saw a 94% increase in cycling numbers on the 20 km Freemantle Railway PSP (despite several kilometres yet to be completed).
Figure 11: Freemantle Railway Principal Shared Path
The Perth-Freemantle Railway shared path experienced an almost doubling of demand compared to the same quarter in 2018. This can be explained by the extension of the path to the south which opened in August 2019 and resulted in an immediate increase in cycling numbers (shown in Figure 12, below).
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Figure 12: Daily demand at Perth-Fremantle Railway Line Principal Shared Path (Grant Street)
Figure 12 above shows that this growth occurred as a result of completing 3km of path from Grant St to Victoria St Station, just over 10 km from the Perth CBD. This section of path runs between houses and the railway line, and is not particularly scenic. The path from Victoria St Station to Freemantle remains incomplete.
6.4.4 Brisbane principal cycleways
Brisbane has a similar population density and transport culture to Wellington. Their cycleway network includes long-distance, high quality cycle paths and shared paths. Between 2000 and 2018, use of their key Velo 1 and Centenary Bikeways has grown by 400%. (See Figure 13.) E-bike use in Australia is limited to bikes with motor output of 250W and a top speed of 25 kph (compared with fast e-bikes capable of up to 45 kph available (and popular) in New Zealand). This is limiting the appeal of e-bikes for long distance cycle commuting.
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Figure 13: Average daily cycling use on Brisbane’s two principal cycleways
6.4.5 Hastings to Havelock North shared path Due to cycle lane and recreational path construction in Hastings (as part of the Model Community project) cycling was growing steadily on Havelock Road from 2010 and 2011, prior to the completion of the Havelock North Road shared path. Hastings to Havelock North is a distance of 4 km, and the road linking the two was busy with fast-moving traffic. In 2011, the road had cycle lanes, but no paths. In 2012 a shared path was constructed. This (along with iWay promotion and wider network development) contributed to a step-change in cycling of over 300% along this shared path between 2011 and 2013.
The green and orange lines in the Figure 14 below show the directional cycle volumes recorded by a newly installed permanent counter in late 2013. (Note that more people use the shared path when riding towards Havelock North, as it is on the left side of the road when travelling in that direction). The pink lines represent average daily cycle volumes obtained from ATC (Automatic Trail Counter) data.
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Figure 14: Directional cycle volumes a permanent counter installed in late 2013 at Hastings to Havelock North Shared Path7
7 Source: Owen Mata, former Hastings Model Community project manager
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6.4.6 Great Taste Trail, Richmond Nelson’s Great Taste Trail is a NZ Cycle Trail ‘Great Ride’, as the Ngā Ūranga to Pito-One Shared Path will be. It varies widely in quality. The following data comes from an EcoCounter on the northern outskirts of Richmond, where the trail runs between SH6 and the foreshore. At 1.5-2.0m in width, this is a substandard shared path attracting relatively few walkers (i.e. a one-way count of around 60 per day). Nevertheless, the growth in walking/running use and the distribution in use throughout the day offers some interesting insights.
Figure 15 below shows weekly pedestrian traffic trending upwards between summer 2018 and summer 2020, at a rate around 50% per annum. (prior to the spikes in activity experienced during the COVID-19 Level 4 lockdown which commenced on 25 March 2020).
Figure 16 illustrates the hourly distribution of pedestrian use during weekdays and weekend days.
Figure 15: Weekly pedestrian traffic at Great Taste Trail, Richmond
Figure 16: Hourly pedestrian traffic at Great Taste Trail, Richmond
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6.4.7 Hutt River Trail, Lower Hutt Similar to the Great Taste Trail, this data comes from an EcoCounter pedestrian counter on a NZ Cycle Trail ‘Great Ride’. This counter is situated north of Lower Hutt on the Remutaka Cycle Trail. The path is 2.2m wide with room to step aside if a group of cyclists approach. Weekday and weekend day average counts since 1 January 2018 have been 53 and 83 respectively (one-way).
Figure 17 below shows weekly pedestrian traffic trending upwards between summer 2018 and summer 2020, at a rate of around 20% per annum. (prior to the spike in activity experienced during the COVID-19 Level 4 lockdown which commenced on 25 March 2020).
Figure 18 illustrates the hourly distribution of pedestrian use during weekdays and weekend days.
Figure 17: Weekly pedestrian traffic at Hutt River Trail, Lower Hutt
Figure 18: Hourly pedestrian traffic at Hutt River Trail, Lower Hutt.
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6.4.8 The Esplanade shared path, Pito-One Similar to the Great Taste Trail, this data comes from an EcoCounter pedestrian counter on a NZ Cycle Trail ‘Great Ride’. This counter is situated on The Esplanade shared path, near William Street, on the Remutaka Cycle Trail. The shared path is only 2m wide, with no room to step to the side – many cyclists prefer to ride on the road and many walkers prefer to walk on the beach. Weekday and weekend day average counts since 1 January 2018 have been 160 and 253 respectively (one-way).
Figure 19 below shows weekly pedestrian traffic increasing dramatically in summer 2019. However, in summer 2020 a counter failure has occurred. There is no spike in activity experienced during the COVID-19 Level 4 lockdown, probably because the path is too busy and narrow to allow for the recommended 2m social distancing.
Figure 20 illustrates the hourly distribution of pedestrian use during weekdays and weekend days.
Figure 19: Weekly pedestrian traffic at the Esplanade Shared Path, Pito-One
Figure 20: Hourly pedestrian traffic at the Esplanade Shared Path, Pito-One
This is the closest counter to the Project’s proposed shared path, but it has a far more urban setting. The Esplanade shared path has two-way pedestrian use averages of 320/weekday and 503/weekend day, which are lower than projected use of the Project’s shared path. However, this counter undercounts total pedestrian activity as it does not include those walking or running on the beach (or on the other side of The Esplanade). Its use is also limited by its minimal 2m width.
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Overall, data relating to The Esplanade shared path gives some indication of the scale of pedestrian use that can reasonably be expected at the northern end of the proposed Ngā Ūranga to Pito-One shared path. The ratio of weekday to weekend day use is 1:1.6, compared with 1:1.8 on the Wainuiomata Hill shared path. The latter, more rural example is closer to what is expected for pedestrian use on the Ngā Ūranga to Pito-One shared path: both are considered to be 'rural' as they both adjoin a high-speed traffic environment and the adjacent land is neither residential nor commercial.
6.4.9 Marine Parade shared path, Napier
Similar to the Great Taste Trail, this data comes from an EcoCounter pedestrian counter on a NZ Cycle Trail ‘Great Ride’. This counter is situated on the Marine Parade shared path, adjacent to the National Marine Centre, 1 km south of the centre of the Napier CBD. The path is about 3m wide, with plenty of room to step to the side. There is also an on-road cycle lane available on Marine Parade, and footpaths. Weekday and weekend day average pedestrian counts on this path since 1 January 2018 have been 428 and 573 respectively.
Figure 21 below shows weekly pedestrian traffic varying hugely on a seasonal basis. However no overall trend is evident. This path is almost a decade old. Tourism plays a large role in its popularity, hence the dip in March 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Figure 22 illustrates the hourly distribution of pedestrian use during weekdays and weekend days.
Figure 21: Weekly pedestrian traffic at the Marine Parade Shared Path, Napier
Figure 22: Hourly pedestrian traffic at the Marine Parade Shared Path, Napier
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6.4.10 Summary of growth experienced in similar projects/environments
Table 6 below summarises data from the above examples to derive typical growth patterns of use following the construction of shared path facilities.
Table 6 – Typical Growth in Use of Shared Use Paths and NZCT Cycle Trails
Project Step change Ongoing growth Wainuiomata SUP +127% in active modes in 12 months Northwestern SUP Cycling - 9% p.a. since 2011 and 17% since 2015 Pedestrians – 10% p.a since 1st Jan 2016 Perth-Freemantle PSP +94% in cyclists in three months Havelock SUP +300% in 24 months Promotion of cycling in Approx 8% p.a. growth at Hutt Road SH2 Wellington region off-ramp since 2014 Great Taste Trail, Pedestrians – Approx. 50% p.a. Richmond Hutt River Trail, Lower Pedestrians – Approx. 20% p.a. Hutt Marine Parade SUP, Pedestrians – Approx. 0% p.a. Napier Typical growth Approx 110% (i.e. mean of 94 Cycling approx. 8-17% p.a. since 2015 and 127%) in first year* Pedestrian approx. 20% p.a. since 2012 (i.e. the median of the case study values) Note: * Assumes path promotion and wider network development
6.5 Comparison with other demand estimates
This section summarises three studies that have estimated demand/use of cycling and walking facilities in New Zealand.
6.5.1 Cycling Demand Analysis (Dodge, et al, WCC 2014)
This report details the modelling and analysis of a large Wellington cycling survey to estimate the potential demand for a variety of cycle facility types proposed for the Island Bay to city cycleway.
The authors’ analysis concluded: “If an ideal route is chosen between Island Bay and the Wellington CBD, cycling numbers nearly triple. Even more growth is possible if just a few of the people who don’t own bikes were to buy or be provided with one.”
By ‘ideal’, the authors mean a direct, separated cycleway. This work suggests a much higher preference for separated cycleways over on-road cycle lanes than indicated in Waka Kotahi Research Report 340 or the Transport Agency Economic Evaluation Manual (EEM). This view is supported by the widely used work of Roger Geller and Jennifer Gill of Portland into the potential and typology of people who do (or might) cycle for transportation.8 In the local context, their work is supported by GWRC’s Transport Perception Surveys and State of Cycling Report 2001-2013,
8 https://www.portlandoregon.gov/transportation/article/264746
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which have consistently found cycle safety concerns to be the highest or second highest barrier to cycling uptake in the Wellington region.9
Peter Nunns (at WCC) is currently rebuilding the 2014 Wellington Cycle Model and expanding it to cover the entire Wellington city. His findings on willingness to pay for separated cycleways in an urban setting are in stark contrast to the EEM which attributes little extra value to separated facilities. His findings mirror the experience of very high uptake of cycling on cycleways in recent years (particularly where these facilities separate riders from a high volume of high-speed traffic). The numbers in Table 7 below represent the relative willingness to pay based on how much extra time users are willing to expend when choosing a facility.
Table 7 – Wellington Cycle Model Willingness to Pay estimates10
Facility type WCC Estimate range Current EEM value
Painted lanes next to parking 0.8-0.9 0.8
Painted lanes without parking 1.3-2.0 0.9
Barrier protected cycle lanes 1.6-2.5 1.0
Separated cycleways 2.4-3.5 1.0
6.5.2 Northern Pathway walking and cycling forecasts The proposed Northern Pathway between Takapuna and Auckland CBD has a number of similarities with the Project’s proposed shared path. Section 1 of the Northern Pathway and associated paths to Queen Street are just over 7km long, although the rolling terrain and climb over the Auckland Harbour Bridge will require more effort than the flat terrain adjacent to Wellington harbour. The route follows a busy state highway, with little urban development alongside a significant portion of it. The route connects a sizeable residential area with a major CBD. The Northern Pathway, section 1, will be a high quality facility between 4 and 5m wide. One notable difference is that the route between the Hutt Valley and Wellington CBD already has a surprisingly high number of commuter cyclists, given the low LOS provided for most of its length, while current cycling numbers between Takapuna and Auckland CBD are negligible
A second notable difference is that the Auckland Harbour Bridge is a major icon and likely to attract a high number of tourists.
Forecasts of average annual daily trips across the Northern Pathway shared path are shown in the excerpts from the Flow Transportation Specialists Ltd demand forecast (updated in 2020) which is set out in Figure 23 below. This demand estimate compares with a base of zero pedestrians and close to zero cyclists travelling between central Auckland and Northcote at present.
9 https://www.gw.govt.nz/assets/Transport/Regional-transport/Regional-Transport- Analysis/Transport-Perceptions-survey-report-August-2019-FINAL.pdf 10 Draft, by P Nunns, WCC.
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Figure 23: Excerpt from Flow demand forecast for Northern Pathway shared path
6.5.3 Tauranga Cycle Model
Flow Transportation Specialists Ltd have developed a cycle model for Tauranga. Tim Hughes (Principal Engineer, Transport Services, Waka Kotahi) has tested the Tauranga cycle model against existing cycling mode share in a number of Christchurch, Auckland and Wellington suburbs with a range of cycling infrastructure. The model significantly underestimates cycling mode share from the lower Hutt Valley, probably because congestion and parking costs are much higher in Wellington than Tauranga (factors which also contribute to very high public transport mode share). Based on an increase in the route’s relative attractiveness index value from 10 to 15, the Tauranga Model suggests that cycling numbers on the Ngā Ūranga to Pito-One shared path could triple once a high-quality shared path is completed all the way from Pito-One to Wellington CBD.
6.6 Other cycling network developments expected to grow demand In addition to the pieces of cycling network recently completed or upgraded (outlined in Section 5) the following pieces are under consideration and generally planned to be completed in the next five to ten years:
• Safer speeds programme in Wellington CBD (i.e. the speed limit on most central city streets was reduced to 30 kph in July 2020). • Evans Bay portion of Great Harbour Way (a high quality, segregated shared path between Miramar and Oriental Bay is under construction and should be completed in 2023). • Let’s get Wellington Moving Thorndon Quay-Hutt Road project, including cycleway development (at preliminary business case stage and yet to be consented, due for construction by June 2024). • P2M Cycleway (under construction and due for completion in the second half of 2021). • Beltway Cycleway (under construction and due for completion in 2021/22). • Manor Park-Silverstream Bridge shared path (design underway and yet to be consented, construction due to begin in 2021), • Low Cost Low Risk upgrades to the Hutt River Trail (west side) between Manor Park and Melling (scoping underway in 2020 and yet to be consented, construction likely in 2021/22). • Upgrade of shared path from Ngā Ūranga to Caltex, Hutt Road (WCC plan to progress this work once the Project is consented). • Eastern Bays shared path (Crown funding approved, resource consent pending, construction due to begin in 2021). • Wainuiomata Heartland Ride (approved by Waka Kotahi, pending minor road safety works). • River Link (northern portion, around Melling Bridge, is fully funded and at detailed design stage, with consents yet to be lodged.)
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Along with the Ngā Ūranga to Pito-One section of Te Ara Tupua, these projects will contribute to an overall increase in cycling that is enhanced by the ‘network effect’. That is, based on a number of positive feedback loops, each additional link in the network will support growth in the others, as illustrated by Macmillan et al (2014) in Figure 24 below.
Figure 24: Positive feedback loops created by the ‘network effect’11
7 Path design description and assessment This section assesses the current shared path design as described in Chapter 3: Description of the Project in the Assessment of Effects on the Environment, and makes recommendations for the shared path design and operation to ensure it is fit for purpose and its positive benefits are maximised as much as possible within site constraints.
Some of these recommendations are already provided for in the current design; whereas others will be considered and addressed as part of detailed design.
This section contains design descriptions and assessments of:
7.1 - Path Width
7.2 - Path Geometrics
7.3 – Shared Path Bridge
7.4 - Path Surface
7.5 - Lighting
11 https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/ehp.13072500
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7.6 – Path Intersections and linkages
7.7 – General Operation Considerations
7.1 Path width
Path width is one of the most important determinants of the successful operation of shared paths. Paths that are too narrow for the level of use they attract are uncomfortable for vulnerable users (particularly children and elderly) and cyclists wishing to travel at normal cycle commuting speeds of 25-35 kph.
7.1.1 Design width
The Project design specifies a 5m wide path surface, with a 4.5m clear width for the majority of the path. The exceptions to this include the existing Korokoro Stream Bridge which is 16.5m long and has a width of 2.45m, and connections within the Reserve which will cater for a variety of walking and cycling movements.
For the reasons set out in section 7.1.2 below, this path width is appropriate for the shared path’s anticipated level of use.
7.1.2 Width assessment
This assessment outlines the Austroads guidance and latest New Zealand research relating to the path width requirements for the Project. It concludes the shared path will need a clear width of 4.5m in order to handle the estimated level of use during peak hours in 2035. Path markings will encourage weekday pedestrians and cyclists to use the space available in a consistent way (with pedestrians on the seaward side of the path and cyclists to the northwest side). This consistency of use will allow commuter cyclist to use the path safely at speeds around 30-35 kph (as they do currently on the adjacent highway shoulder). Off-peak use patterns will be highly variable, particularly in weekends and public holidays. KiwiRail will occasionally drive service vehicles along the path (which the public will need to be able to walk or cycle past).
This section includes the following sub-sections: 7.1.2.1 – Path width required for week-day peaks 7.1.2.2 – Path width required for weekend peaks 7.1.2.3 – General path width required for separated shared paths 7.1.2.4 – Path Width vs Clear Path Width 7.1.2.5 – Operating envelopes for cyclists and pedestrians 7.1.2.6 – Local Context 7.1.2.7 – Proposed shared path cross-section
7.1.2.1 Path width required for weekday AM peaks
Table 8 below provides an estimate of the 2035 and 2050 average weekday AM peak use of the shared path. In this table a 75/25 directional split has been assumed to reflect expected commuter
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patterns of use. This means that Figure 5.5 of Austroads Guide to Road Design Part 6A – Paths for Walking and Cycling (Austroads Part 6A) is relevant, which is set out below in Figure 25.
For the purpose of categorising all users as ‘pedestrians’ or ‘cyclists’, as required for Austroads Part 6A, transport device users (such e-scooter or skateboard riders) have been split with one third going into the pedestrian category and two thirds going into the cycling category.
Table 8: Estimated Weekday AM Peak Hour Use.
Shared Path Use 2035 Average 2035 95th percentile 2050 Average Estimates Weekday AM Peak Weekday AM Peak Weekday AM Peak Pedestrians, etc (i.e. 56 84 75 slower users) Cyclists, etc 596 894 802 (i.e. faster users)
Set out in Figure 25 below, is Figure 5.5 of Austroads Part 6A, amended as follows:
• The solid black line shows the 2035 average weekday AM peak; • The dashed black line shows the 2035 95th percentile weekday AM peak; • The solid grey line shows the 2050 average weekday AM peak. In the last two of those scenarios (ie, 2035 95th percentile and 2050 average), a 3.0m bike path and >1.5m footpath is recommended. An additional 0.5m shy space to the KiwiRail fence is also required.
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Figure 25: Figure 5.5 of Austroads Part 6A
7.1.2.2 Path width required for weekend peaks Table 9 below provides an estimate of the 2035 and 2050 average weekend peak use of the shared path. In this table a 50/50 directional split has been assumed, meaning that Figure 5.4 of Austroads Part 6A is relevant. This Figure is set out below as Figure 26.
Table 9. Estimated Weekend Peak Use.
Shared Path Use 2035 Average 2035 95th percentile 2050 Average Estimates Weekend Peak Weekend Peak Weekend Peak Pedestrians, etc (i.e. 112 168 150 slower users) Cyclists, etc 306 459 412 (i.e. faster users)
Set out in Figure 26 below, is Figure 5.4 of Austroads Part 6A amended as follows:
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• The solid black line shows 2035 average weekend peak; • The dashed black line shows the 2035 95th percentile weekend peak; • The solid grey line shows the 2050 average weekend peak. In all three scenarios a 2.5m bike path plus >1.5m footpath is recommended. An additional 0.5m shy space to the KiwiRail fence is also required.
Figure 26: Figure 5.4 of Austroads Part 6A
7.1.2.3 General path width required for separated shared paths
Table 5.4 of Austroads Part 6A also suggests the following widths for separated two-way paths (see below Figure 27).
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This guidance is relevant as it ensures the Project will be future-proofed in the event that demand is higher than expected and pedestrians and cyclists need to be segregated (which the demand estimate suggests may be recommended for the average weekday peak by 2050).
Figure 27: Table 5.4 of Austroads Part 6A
7.1.2.4 Path width vs clear path width
It is important to note that the recommendations above from Austroads Part 6A are for ‘clear path width’. Adequate clearance must be provided between cyclists traveling in opposing directions, between cyclists and path-side hazards (such as fences) and between cyclists and pedestrians. This is explained in Section 5.1 of Austroads Part 6A, which is set out below for ease of reference in Figure 28.
With a 500mm clearance to the KiwiRail fence taken into account, the clear path width of the Project’s proposed shared path will be 4.5m.
Figure 28: Section 5.1 of Austroads Part 6A
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7.1.2.5 Operating envelopes for cyclists and pedestrians Set out below in Figure 29 is an extract from Austroads Part 6A which discusses clearances required between cyclists and other path users.
Figure 29: Extract from Section 5.5.2 of Austroads Part 6A As this extract shows, for a shared path with high number of commuter cyclists to operate safely, it is important to have adequate clearance between bicycle operating spaces for people travelling in opposite directions, between potential hazards such as chain-link fences, and between cyclists and slow path users such as pedestrians. The same considerations are likely to apply for e-scooter riders.
Austroads suggests the minimum lateral clearance between cyclists traveling in opposing directions at speeds of 30 kph should be 1.0m. However, experience on the Hutt Cycleway to the south suggests that a clear width of 3m cycling space is workable at most times. This is supported by Figure 30 below, which is also from Austroads. This Figure illustrates clearances on a two-way cycle path.
It is expected that sports cyclists wishing to ride at very high speeds (e.g. >40 kph) will continue to use the highway shoulder.
Figure 30: Figure 5.7 from Austroads Part 6A
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Another figure from Austroads is set out below in Figure 31. This shows the pedestrian path width requirements for people with mobility impairments.
Figure 31: Figure 3.4 from Austroads Part 6A
7.1.2.6 Local context
Speed differentials The Austroads Part 6A guidance is based on the assumption that a fast cycling speed on the flat is 30 kph. This is based on the speed of an unassisted sports cyclist or fit commuter cyclist. Despite the advent of the e-bike, this assumption holds true in Australia, where regulations limit the maximum assisted speed of e-bikes (and e-scooters) to 25 kph. In New Zealand, however, there are no rules governing the maximum assisted speed of e-bikes (or e-scooters). E-bikes capable of 32kph, 40 kph or even up to 45 kph are sold in most bike shops, and are popular on long commutes such as Lower Hutt to Wellington. A survey of bicycle speeds carried out in 2017 for Waka Kotahi Research Report 621 – ‘Regulations and safety for electric bicycles and other low powered vehicles’ found that in New Zealand, e-bikes travel around 6 kph faster than conventional bicycles. Where possible, fit commuter cyclists will often draft e-bikes. This practice lifts the average speed of fit conventional cyclists. Those riders without the fitness or skills to draft other riders will be travelling significantly slower, around 15-25 kph, compared with 30-40 kph. As a result, overtaking of slow cyclists and e- scooters by fast cyclists is far more common in New Zealand than in Australia. In practice, on shared paths, this can mean that fast cyclists are overtaking slow cyclists and e-scooters, while all cyclists are overtaking runners and slow transport devices, who in turn are overtaking walkers. Higher speed differentials (and more frequent overtaking manoeuvres) between path users in New Zealand means that conflict between path users is more likely to occur here, for a given level of use and path width. As a result, it is recommended that the Project provide for a path width that is slightly wider than that recommended by Austroads Part 6A.
Path design to the north and south To the south, the path from Thorndon to Ngā Ūranga will be completed as a segregated shared path, with markings indicating separate space for cycling and walking. The cycling space is 3-4m wide and the walking space is 1.5-2m wide. This allows for a high speed differential between the modes, in a reasonably safe and comfortable way.
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To the north, the P2M Cycleway will be a cycle-only path north of Pito-One Station. Pedestrians will use the footpath on Hutt Road. Along The Esplanade, faster cyclists typically ride on the road, while pedestrians and slower cyclists use the foreshore shared path. This means the facilities to the south and north will provide for separation of pedestrians and cyclists. As mentioned above, in terms of the Project, use may grow to the level where separating walkers and cyclists is recommended. When or if that happens, it will be important to have a path width of at least 4.5m (clear width), so that separation can be provided for.
The road shoulder alternative At present, most cyclists riding between Ngā Ūranga and Pito-One use the road shoulder, which allows for fast travel. In order to reduce the risk of cyclist deaths and serious injuries, the new path must allow for fast riding (i.e. it must be attractive to existing riders who wish to ride at speeds of 30-40 kph, so as to draw them off the highway). The 4.5m path width and markings encouraging walkers to use the seaward side of the path will leave enough width for two riders travelling in opposing directions to pass each other and a pair of pedestrians, with a safety margin of 0.5m between each rider, the KiwiRail fence and the nearest pedestrian. This means the Project is likely to be attractive to many fast riders, as the path width will be adequate.
Strong winds The Wellington region is renowned for strong winds. The predominant north-westerly wind funnels down the gullies along the coastal escarpment and this area is exposed to southerlies throughout. Regular commuters are not easily deterred by inclement weather conditions, however, they can still be taken by surprise by freak gusts and occasionally be pushed off their riding line. When this happens, adequate shy space between opposing riders and/or slower path users may be the difference between a near miss and a collision. Gusts may also push riders of bicycles or scooters into the barriers alongside the path. The prospect of catching a handlebar on the chain link mesh of the KiwiRail fence or an elbow on edges along the seawall screens will lead experienced riders to give these hazards a wider berth during windy conditions. The usable width of the path would be slightly greater if these barriers had smooth surfaces (e.g. rub rails at forearm and handlebar height along the KiwiRail fence). This matter can be considered during detailed design.
Figure 32: Illustration of the path at Karanga Point, from Chapter 3 of the AEE
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7.1.2.7 Proposed path cross-section
In light of the above considerations, the following section sets out a proposed path cross-section for the Project. Fast users (cyclists and e-scooters) will be encouraged by way of signage and markings to use the landward side of the path and slow users (runners, walkers, mobility scooters and kick-scooters, etc) will be encouraged to use the coastal side of the path. This aligns with the current allocation of space on the Hutt Road Cycleway and adheres to the principle that slower users wishing to appreciate the coastal views and gathering spaces will be drawn to the coastal side of the path. During weekday morning peaks around 90% of path users will be cycle commuters travelling at 20- 40 kph, while the remainder will be relatively slow walkers and runners. The design will allow for the following nominal allocation of space:
• 1500mm pedestrian space + • 500mm shy space to fast users + • 1000mm for the southbound cyclist envelope + • 500mm shy space to oncoming riders + • 1000mm for the northbound cyclist envelope + • 500mm clearance to the KiwiRail fence = • Total of 5000mm. Figure 33 below illustrates this pattern of use. During weekend peaks the patterns of use will be much more variable. In the early morning there will be groups of riders using the path, and when there are few other people around, these people may ride side-by-side. Later in the day, there may be groups of walkers, runners, or scooter riders, and families on bikes, all using the path at the same time and negotiating their way past each other at slower speeds. At peak times during weekends or public holidays, the path width may struggle to cope with the number of visitors, particularly at the Pito-One end. It is expected that when pedestrian numbers are particularly high, the space they occupy will increase and cycling speeds will reduce (and the clearances between them and the fence and other users will also reduce). The path width may also feel inadequate when sporting events or whale sightings draw groups of spectators to the path, however, these times will be the exception rather than the rule.
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Figure 33 – Nominal use of space during morning weekday peak
Exceptions to the above width will exist at Korokoro Bridge (and the northern end of the path) and in the Reserve (at the north-eastern end of the path). However, as the path has split into two in this area, the level of use at these locations will only be 40-60% of the total path usage.
The Korokoro Bridge (pictured below in Figure 34) is 2.45m wide (clear width of less than 2.0m). Austroads Part 6A guidelines suggests 3.0m clear width would be appropriate. However, given the bridge is 16.5 m long and lacks a scenic view likely to cause people to pause on it, this width should suffice. The smooth rails along the sides of the bridge encourage path users to make the most of the deck width available. If the barriers could be splayed out to provide an extra 150- 200mm of room at handlebar height on both sides, that would further help to reduce friction between users. This can be considered as part of detailed design. Further, when the bridge reaches the end of its life, it should be replaced with one that has 3m of clear width.
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Figure 34: Korokoro Bridge
The multiple paths through the Reserve will split use in different directions. Use is likely to be most concentrated adjacent to the new Integrated Clubs Building. At this point a clear path width of 4m is recommended, with additional space where people are likely to gather or queue (e.g. outside the toilets). Alternatively, a clear width of 3m would suffice if a separate cycle facility on, or adjacent to The Esplanade were provided (leading to the Reserve's main vehicle entrance). These matters can be addressed as part of detailed design and in discussions with the Reserve owners, Taranaki Whānui, together with HCC (in respect of The Esplanade).
In summary:
• Along the main section of the shared path, the proposed 5m width (i.e. 4.5m clear width) is appropriate and will cater for the expected level of use, except during some weekend or public holiday peaks, or special events. However, this will be the exception rather than the rule. • Along Korokoro Stream Bridge the width will not accord with Austroads guidance, however, given that the Bridge is not very long and not likely to be a stopping point, the proposed width will be adequate. • Within the Reserve, the path will split into two, therefore the width can be narrower than 5m. Use is likely to be concentrated adjacent to the Integrated Clubs Building, and this section needs to be considered carefully during detailed design and in discussions with the Reserve owners
7.2 Geometrics
The terrain through the Project area mirrors that of the adjacent highway, where there are no geometric challenges for users travelling at less than 50 kph. It is expected that for the majority of the path there will be no problem providing curves appropriate to a design speed of 40 kph (as shown in Austroads Part 6A, table 5.6, below).
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Figure 35: Extract from Austroads Part 6A Two areas of concern relate to structures in the Reserve area and the shared path bridge.
At the eastern exit from the Reserve the sight-line will be somewhat limited by the new Integrated Clubs Building; there will be people going to and from the toilets from various directions; and there is a tight curve to be negotiated adjacent to the toilet block. However, the risk of conflict here can be mitigated by applying a ‘Slow’ behaviour marking to the path where it passes the Clubs Building. Alternatively, creating a separate facility for faster cyclists (adjacent to The Esplanade) would mitigate the risk of conflict both here and on the shared path further east. These matters will be considered as part of detailed design.
The points at which shared path users cross the Reserve access road are also points of potential conflict. It will be important to maintain clear sight-lines between modes and manage speeds in this location. It may also be advisable to place the crossing point by the Clubs Building car park on a platform. Again, these matters can be considered as part of detailed design and working with the Reserve owners.
Figure 36: Eastern end of the Reserve. Note: 1 = Integrated Clubs Building. 4 = Main path
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The 1:12 gradient on the shared path bridge will contribute to high cycling speeds (e.g. 40 kph by the bottom of the ramp compared with an average speed of 30 kph on the flat). It will be particularly important to maintain straight, clear sight-lines from the ramp, along the path for the next 100-150m during which riders decelerate to average speed. Bold markings should be used where people exit the Piki Wahine Point ūranga, to remind them that they are stepping onto a space shared with faster users, and to alert riders to the presence of others. This can be considered as part of detailed design.
The approach to the tight curves at the top of the bridge ramps is relatively slow. It is expected that normal bikes will be travelling at 10-15 kph at the top of the bridge, while e-bikes will be doing 15- 20 kph. Visibility on the inside of the transition from the ramp to the top of the bridge may be limited by the barrier. However, transverse markings can be used to encourage riders to slow down on the bridge. Other markings should also be used to encourage pedestrians to use the coastal side of the bridge, while riders use the landward side.
7.3 Shared path bridge
A bridge over the Hutt Valley railway lines is required near the southern end of the shared path. This will offer a commanding view of the harbour, so is a likely to be a destination in its own right.
7.3.1 Shared path bridge design
The shared path bridge will be an architecturally designed bridge across the railway north of Ngā Ūranga that has a 5m surface width. At the top, there may be a gathering space where people can stop to rest, admire the view and read interpretive panels.
The gradient of the bridge’s north and south bound ramps (of approximately 110m and 100m respectively) will be designed to support cycling, wheelchair and emergency vehicle access. The ramp gradient will not exceed 1:12 and the gradient of each ramp will be offset by flat landings at appropriate intervals.
The bridge height will not exceed 10m.
Figure 37: Shared path bridge preliminary concept visualisation from Chapter 3 of the AEE
7.3.2 Shared path bridge assessment
In terms of utility, the design is adequate.
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Having an area at the top where people can stop off the main path will help to reduce the risk of conflict between users enjoying the place versus those travelling over the facility. This will be important as the approaches to the top of the bridge have sight-lines that are likely to be limited by the barriers on the inside of the curves.
The gradient of the ramps and frequency of the landings requires careful consideration. Inappropriately spaced and graded landings can have a destabilising effect on cyclists. This was experienced on the Glen Innes to Tamaki Shared Path where the landings proved to have a destabilising effect on cyclists. The “bucking” motion was acknowledged to be both uncomfortable and potentially hazardous at or above the design speed of 20 kph. This discomforting effect could deter riders from migrating from the road to the path.
Ideally the ramp gradient would be 1:20 and the ramps would not require any landings. However, if this cannot be achieved, it is recommended that a departure from NZS 4121:2001 be sought, in order to incorporate larger, less frequent landings, as per the AT Cycling Infrastructure Engineering Design Code.12
7.4 Path surfaces
In order to draw existing cyclists off the highway, the path surface needs to be of a similar or higher standard, particularly with regards to smoothness. Riders of devices with small wheels such as wheelchairs, skateboards and roller blades, also require a very smooth surface. Runners typically prefer a surface with a little bit of elasticity, such as asphalt rather than concrete.
7.4.1 Surfacing design
The main path surface will be designed to withstand maintenance vehicles. The finished surface will be asphalt or a similar smooth surface. The short sections of path through the ūranga may have a different, more natural surface.
Along the coastal section of the path (Sector 2, approximately 3.3km long), chip seal will initially be placed for the first 12 months of operation to allow for any settlement of underlying fill material. After this settlement period, Sector 2 of the path will be resurfaced in accordance with the Austroads Guide to Pavement Design and the New Zealand Supplement. The shared path surface in Sector 1 and 3 will be finished in accordance with the Austroads Guide to Pavement Design and the New Zealand Supplement from the opening of the shared path.
7.4.2 Path surface assessment
The design is adequate, however it might be improved with reference to the most recent guidance - the Austroads Guide to Pavement Technology Part 2: Pavement Structural Design, 2017 and New Zealand guide to pavement structural design: NZTA, 2018. When considering the final surface, reference should also be made to Waka Kotahi’s 2019 guidance, Pavement specification guidelines for cycling routes.13 I recommend that these guidance documents are considered at detailed design phase.
There is a risk that the chip seal surface used in Sector 2 for the first 12 months after the path opening will deter many users riding on narrow tyres or small diameter wheels. This is likely to impact on path uptake to some extent. To mitigate this risk, the chip seal should be grade 5 or 6, with loose chip swept off all corners.
12 https://at.govt.nz/media/1982222/engineering-design-code-cycling- infrastructure_compressed.pdf 13 https://www.nzta.govt.nz/resources/pavement-specification-guidelines-for-cycling-routes/
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7.5 Lighting
During winter, a significant portion of the path’s use will be during the hours of darkness. Adequate lighting is essential to ensure the safe and comfortable operation of the path. It must be of a suitable intensity to ensure users can see any hazards on or along the edge of the path (including other path users). While cyclists are required to use lights between sunset and sunrise, there is no such requirement for pedestrians, e-scooter riders or skateboarders, etc, so the lighting needs to be bright enough to illuminate the path for these users.
7.5.1 Lighting design
The existing design states that the path “will be lit to achieve P3 light levels under NZS1158: Lighting for roads and public spaces… The lighting enables the shared path to be used at night, so users can see and be seen at all times.”
A lower level of light will be provided at the ūranga in order to minimise impacts on adjacent habitat.
7.5.2 Lighting design assessment
The design is adequate, but would be improved with recognition of the new, 2020 standard – PP3 under AS/NZS 1158.3.1:2020 Lighting for roads and public spaces, Part 3.1: Pedestrian Area (Category P) lighting. I recommend that this is considered at detailed design phase.
At entry points, conflict points and approaches to structures, and for areas covered by CCTV camera surveillance, level PP2 would be needed to ensure a vertical illumination of a minimum of 0.3 lux on faces. If the lighting is mounted low (to avoid light spill) meeting the lighting standard will require some reflection from the path surface. The colour of the path surface should take this into account.
7.6 Intersections and linkages
The project area contains several intersections which have the potential to be hotspots for user conflict as fast and slow users cross each other’s paths. The risks at these locations need to be identified and managed appropriately.
Ūranga intersections
The most common intersection type will be where access is provided to the six different ūranga. Cyclists stopping at the ūranga will cross the path of walkers and runners. Pedestrians (particularly young children or those with low vision) exiting an ūranga may wander onto the ‘fast users’ side of the path. The risks associated with these movements can be managed with clear markings (i.e. pedestrian and cycle symbols) at the junctions. Tactile direction markings can be used to accentuate the nominal edge of the ‘slow user’ side of the path. Rider approach speeds can be nudged down with transverse markings.
If the ūranga paths have a gravel surface, the transition between the main path and ūranga paths will need to be bevelled to prevent the risk of gravel chips migrating onto the main path (without using a hard lip that could create a trip hazard).
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Figure 38: Concept design of Paroro-Rangi Point ūranga
Intersections at the north end
At the north end the path will split into two, with northbound users heading on to the P2M Path and eastbound users turning right, into the Reserve. In those directions, the sight-lines are good. In the opposite direction, the limited sight-line between users coming from the north versus users coming from the east is a concern that needs to be considered during detailed design and operation. As well as regular vegetation control, it may be advisable to present riders approaching from the Reserve with give-way markings, and place transverse markings on the main path to encourage riders to slow down (along with pedestrian and cycle symbols to indicate where faster and slower users are expected).
Figure 39: West end of the Reserve. Note: 8 = Main path connections to Reserve
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Intersections at the south end
The intersections at the south end of the path are outside the Project boundary. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that this Project will generate a large increase in walking and cycling movements there. Cycling and pedestrian movements passing under the SH1 motorway will increase dramatically as people move between the Project and the Hutt Road Cycleway (already Wellington’s busiest). These movements will also increase as a result of an upgrade of the northern end of the Hutt Cycleway (planned to coincide with the construction of this Project) and improvements to the cycling LOS along Thorndon Quay being considered as part of Let’s Get Wellington Moving’s ‘Quick Wins’. Pedestrian crossing movements at the bottom of Centennial Highway will also increase as well as pedestrian movements from Ngā Ūranga Station onto the shared path.
Facility upgrades to mitigate the risks associated with this increase in active modes traffic are highly recommended but will need to be considered as separate projects
Linkages
To the South
As noted above, the intersections at the south end of the path are outside the Project boundary, however, this Project will generate a large increase in walking and cycling movements there and it is recommended that facility upgrades at these intersections are considered as part of separate projects.
Upgrades of the Ngā Ūranga Gorge shared path and Wakely Track have already been investigated. Should these proceed, they will facilitate an increase in recreational use of the Project by residents from Johnsonville and Newlands.
To the North
By the time this Project is completed, the P2M shared path will be complete and there will be greater clarity about potential linkages with the Riverlink project precinct.
A new section of Hutt River Trail between Silverstream Bridge and Manor Park is under investigation and may be completed in the next two years. The Hutt River Trail between Manor Park and Melling is in need of a surface upgrade and this is being investigated as part of Waka Kotahi’s ‘Low Cost-Low Risk’ programme.
To the Northeast
The Esplanade offers walkers a good level of service, with options including a footpath, a shared path, and a beach. For road cyclists, the road offers a poor level of service – they must be watchful for hazards such as turning vehicles and opening doors. Alternatively, cyclists can try the shared path which is narrow, often congested, and has poor sight-lines in many spots. Provision of better cycling facilities on The Esplanade has been discussed at the strategic level for some time and may become a priority when the Project is complete. It should be noted that The Esplanade shared path forms part of the Remutaka Trail ‘Great Ride’.
From the eastern end of The Esplanade there are linkages via Waione Street to the Hutt River Trail, the Wainuiomata Hill shared path and the Eastern Bays (which may have its own shared path within the next three years). In addition, construction of stage 1 of the Beltway Cycleway has begun, and when finished, will offer a safe cycling option alongside the Hutt Valley railway line from Pomare to Waterloo. Stage 2 of the Beltway Cycleway, should connect Waterloo to Moera (adjacent to the Hutt River Trail near Waione Street).
Via Public Transport
For walkers, runners and novice cyclists, accessing the Project via public transport will be an attractive option. The Hutt Valley Line train can be caught to Ngā Ūranga Station at the southern
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end of the path or to Pito-One Station, 700m from the northern end. Alternatively, buses can be caught to similar locations. This will allow those without a car to access the shared path, and those with limited endurance to walk, skate or ride the full length of the path in just one direction.
7.7 General operational considerations
Closure of the path will be required from time to time (e.g. for surface maintenance, during extreme weather, when seals move onto the path). On these occasions clear signage will be required at the points where people will need to detour onto the highway or public transport. Barriers at either end of the path may also be required. Public notifications informing pedestrians and novice riders that the path is closed will be needed to mitigate the risk of vulnerable path users setting out on a trip that could result in them venturing onto State Highway 2.
Regular path sweeping and vegetation control will be required to keep the path to a high standard. This should be managed without closing the path.
Behaviour markings will be used to create informal separation between fast and slow path users (with slower users enjoying the more scenic, coastal side of the path). Markings can also be used to help slow riders down on approaches to intersections, and guide riders away from hazards such as the KiwiRail fence when riding at night or into driving rain. When the path is first opened, a more personal behaviour campaign could help to encourage thoughtful sharing of the path by the wide range of users expected (i.e. existing highway cyclists through to families walking with toddlers). As issues with behaviour on the path arise, it may be necessary to review the markings and develop them further.
8 Conclusions and recommendations
In conclusion, the Project will deliver a high-quality facility between Ngā Ūranga and Pito-One and provide a critical link in the overall cycling and walking network. The proposed Project design is appropriate for the anticipated level of demand, and in particular the proposed path width of 5m along the majority of the Project route is appropriate and necessary.
I have reviewed the proposed conditions accompanying the notice of requirements and resource consent applications. I consider the conditions will appropriately manage effects as assessed in this report.
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Appendix A – New Zealand E-mobility Imports
E-scooter shared schemes started in New Zealand in 2018. Prior to that, e-scooter imports were minimal. Based on import figures for January 2020, approximately 40% of imports represented in this graph are now e-scooters.
Source: ViaStrada and Stats NZ.
E-bike sales grew dramatically in the Netherlands and Belgium from 2012 to 2016, and have continued to grow strongly since then, now making up 50% of adult bicycle sales (compared with 33% in Switzerland and 40% in France).
Dramatic grow in e-bike sales in New Zealand started a few years later, in 2015-2017. By 2019, e- bike sales still only made up approximately 20% of total bicycle sales (of around 200,000 p.a.) in New Zealand. It appears that New Zealand is several years away from reaching peak e-bike sales, and then market saturation. However, market saturation will occur, and it is expected that growth in cycle commuting will fall back closer to levels experienced prior to the e-bike boom, in the next decade.
What is much less clear is how electronic transport devices such as e-scooters (shared or privately owned) will grow in popularity and attract new path users (especially those with no interest in cycling or walking). Recent experience with Lime and several other operators suggests the private sector will commit considerable resources into growing the shared e-mobility market.
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Appendix B - Strava Heatmap for Wainuiomata Hill
Strava is a voluntary exercise tracking app, typically used by around 10% of cyclists. While it has a bias towards sports cyclists, it does appear to be particularly popular amongst Wellington cycle commuters. A comparison of Strava attempts and the WCC Hutt Road Cycleway counter on Tuesday the 3rd March 2020 found that Strava captured approximately 19% of the actual total number of riders travelling along Hutt Road. In the Strava heatmap below, the faint blue line shows very low use of the roadway for cycling. The thicker red lines show high-use on the new SUP and adjacent mountain bike tracks.
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Appendix C - Gender Split of Ngā Ūranga Cycle Commuters
A highly disproportionate gender split is typical of stressful cycling environments which appeal only to ‘Strong and Fearless’ (2% of public) and ‘Enthused and Confident’ (8% of public) people. When high quality, safe cycling networks are provided, these appeal to the ‘Interested but concerned’ market (approximately 60% of the public) and a much more even gender split and wide range of ages of users is seen.14
On the Northwestern Cycleway, women make up 27% of cyclists, compared with only 17% at Ngā Ūranga (where mixing with high speed traffic is a part of cycling trips).
Ngā Ūranga Cycle Commuter Gender Percentage Share (Table 8-14, Transport Monitoring Surveys, Stantec, May 2019)
14 https://www.nzta.govt.nz/walking-cycling-and-public-transport/cycling/cycling-standards-and- guidance/cycling-network-guidance/cycle-network-and-route-planning-guide/principles/people-who- cycle/
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