Oshkosh Corporation

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Oshkosh Corporation BUSFIN 7225 – Student Investment Oshkosh Corporation July 5Fund Manager: Royce West th, 2019 Research Analyst: Sean McMickle July 5th, 2019 Oshkosh Corporation Performance History Summary 52‐Week High $84.86 Oshkosh Corporation designs, manufactures, and 52‐Week Low $51.42 markets specialty vehicles, truck bodies, and access 1‐year return 17.62% equipment including fire and emergency vehicles, military vehicles, concrete mixers, and refuse collection vehicles. Primary markets targeted include defense, concrete placement, refuse hauling, access equipment, Company Information and fire & emergency.1 Oshkosh Corporation was Ticker OSK founded in 1917, has manufacturing operations in 8 Sector Industrials countries, and has a market capitalization of $5.68 Industry Truck Manufacturing billion. Price as of 7‐5‐19 $83.27 Market Cap (mn) $5,793 Investment Thesis Shares Outstanding (mn) 69.12 We are recommending that investors HOLD Oshkosh Corporation at industrial sector weight due to the Key Statistics following reasons: 1. We believe that cash flow projections are Revenue (TTM‐mn) 8,300 rooted in late economic cycle uncertainty and Earnings (TTM‐mn) 542.2 are therefore too conservative. We believe the EPS (TTM) 7.44 current expansion has time to drive revenue P/E 11.19 growth within a late‐cycle market Beta 2.16 outperforming segment. 2. Oshkosh has recently successfully captured OSK Stock Price multiple government defense contracts. Due to the high likelihood of renewal of these 95 contracts once captured, Oshkosh is positioned 85 to increase defense segment revenue higher 75 than expected. 65 3. Oshkosh Corporation is focused on improving 55 company fundamentals to improve efficiencies and increase margins. 45 J‐19 J‐19 J‐18 J‐19 S‐18 F‐19 A‐19 A‐18 D‐18 N‐18 O‐18 M‐19 M‐19 Risks Risks to investing in Oshkosh Corporation include: Contact Information Failure to reach a trade deal with China may Email [email protected] stifle economic expansion in target markets Phone Number (513) 373‐7577 domestically and abroad. 2020 Presidential election results may Recommendation change government spending patterns and Stock Rating HOLD affect revenue growth. Price Target $88.46 An increase in backlogs may make timely Implied Upside 6.02% product delivery difficult. Dividend Yield 1.30% Page | 1 Oshkosh Corporation July 5th, 2019 Contents Company Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Business Segments .................................................................................................................................... 3 Access Equipment ................................................................................................................................. 4 Defense ................................................................................................................................................. 4 Fire and Emergency .............................................................................................................................. 4 Commercial ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Geographical Segments ............................................................................................................................ 5 Market Landscape ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Sector Landscape .................................................................................................................................. 6 Competitive Landscape ......................................................................................................................... 6 Growth Drivers .......................................................................................................................................... 8 Recent Stock News .................................................................................................................................... 9 Recently Approved Government Contracts .......................................................................................... 9 Investment Thesis ......................................................................................................................................... 9 Fundamental Drivers ................................................................................................................................. 9 Continued Economic Expansion .......................................................................................................... 10 Continued capture of government contracts ..................................................................................... 10 Continued improvement in company fundamentals .......................................................................... 11 Financial Forecasts .................................................................................................................................. 12 Valuation and Price Target .......................................................................................................................... 13 Risks ............................................................................................................................................................ 14 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 14 Appendices .................................................................................................................................................. 15 Appendix I: Oshkosh, Inc. Income Statement ......................................................................................... 15 Appendex II. Segment Assessment ......................................................................................................... 16 Appendix III: Oshkosh, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow ................................................................................. 17 References .................................................................................................................................................. 18 Page | 2 Oshkosh Corporation July 5th, 2019 Company Overview Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures specialty vehicles and truck bodies worldwide for the target markets of defense, concrete placement, refuse hauling, access equipment, and fire & emergency. Formerly known as Oshkosh Truck Corporation, Oshkosh Corporation was founded in 1917, incorporated in 2014, and headquartered in Oshkosh, Wisconsin. Oshkosh currently manufactures within 7 U.S. states as well as Australia, Canada, China, France, Mexico, Romania, and the United Kingdom. Sales and distribution operations are maintained within 150 countries. Equipment is marketed to specific geographic regions where customer required high performance standards match current product configurations, or an opportunity for value‐ added products at a price premium exists. All products are backed by a worldwide 24/7 service network.2 Since 1996, Oshkosh has completed 15 significant acquisitions and 2 divestitures to maintain a top market presence in growing markets and to deliver synergies within purchasing, manufacturing, distribution, and product development.3 Business Segments Oshkosh contains four major business segments of access equipment, defense, fire & emergency, and commercial. Overall operating income and sales are largely driven by access equipment and defense, representing a collective 72.7% of revenue. Intersegment NET SALES OPERATING INCOME (LOSS) eliminations and Access other, $(24.60) equipment, Corporate, Access $3,776.80 $(161.90) equipment, $387.80 Commercial, $1,054.70 Commercial, $67.50 Fire & Emergency Fire & , Defense, Emergency, Defense, $1,069.70 $1,828.90 $137.20 $222.90 Page | 3 Oshkosh Corporation July 5th, 2019 Access Equipment The operations of JLG Industries, Inc. and Jerr‐Dan Corporation represent the access equipment segment. JLG Industries was acquired in 2006 and produces aerial work platforms and telehandlers that provide workers and equipment access to difficult to reach locations. JLG also provides low‐level access equipment in Europe and the Middle East. Primary customers include contractors, home improvement stores, and equipment rental companies. JLG sells direct and offers financing to customers through third party contracts. Jerr‐Dan manufactures and markets towing and recovery equipment within the United States. Product lines include light‐ medium‐ and heavy‐duty wreckers as well as aluminum, steel and industrial carriers. In addition, revenue is generated from installation and service.4,5 Defense Oshkosh Corporation provides various products to the United States Department of Defense through Oshkosh Defense, LLC as well as tactile vehicles to approved foreign customers. Primary product lines include the production and maintenance of Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles and Aircraft Rescue Fire Fighting (ARFF) specialty tactile vehicles. Oshkosh defense also produces and services light‐ medium‐ and heavy‐duty vehicles related to missions requiring hauling tanks, missile systems, ammunition, fuel, and troop and cargo transport.4,5 Fire and Emergency Fire and Emergency subsidiaries of Oshkosh include Pierce Manufacturing, Inc., Oshkosh Airport Products,
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