MEMO
From: CGCN Group Date: 3/21/2017
TRUMP’S NEW “ART OF THE DEAL”
Pick up a paper or turn on a Sunday show, and you will see stories about chaos created by the new Trump administration – late- night tweets by the president, conspiracies with Russia, turmoil inside the Republican Party. But the narrative often overlooks signs of actual progress.
Just consider the push to repeal Obamacare. A House bill that looked dead two weeks ago now has a very real chance of passing when party leaders bring it to the floor this Thursday. Votes are consistently being picked up. And the president is the reason for that turnaround. President Trump walked into HC-5 this morning to meet with members with momentum. He pushed aggressively for passage of a bill this Thursday, even calling members out by name.
If the bill passes, two moments are bound to stand out. The first took place last Friday when President Trump welcomed a dozen members of the Republican Study Committee to the Oval Office. What looked like a standard photo op, quickly became a lesson in persuasion when the entire press pool was ushered into the meeting for Trump to declare, “These folks were mostly ‘nos’ yesterday, and now every single one is a ‘yes.’” The second stand out moment was this morning’s conference.
House leaders outlined a series of “fixes” on Monday to mollify members’ concerns, and RSC Chairman Mark Walker subsequently endorsed the bill, becoming a critical pickup for the president and Republican leaders in their drive to repeal and replace Obamacare. Expect a full-court press from the entire Trump administration in the moments leading up to that vote.
If the president wins Thursday, there will still be plenty of drama over in the Senate, where his detractors seem far more committed to blocking his signature bills (though Leader McConnell seems to get the Republican Conference unified time and time again). But a win in the House would still send a powerful message that Trump can override the concerns of many in his party, dramatically improving the prospects for tax reform, an infrastructure bill and just about any other big-ticket item that seemingly face Republican resistance.
A victory on the House floor would also serve as another powerful reminder – on the heels of last year’s election – that the noise created by our unconventional president often obscures the real action playing out right in front of us.
WHAT THE MEDIA MAY BE MISSING
The cable news networks and Sunday shows continue to fixate on the Russia wiretapping story, arguing that the Trump Presidency is already in disarray and weakened. However, the data doesn’t back that up. The Real Clear Politics average pegs the president’s approval rating at 43.7 percent. That is a slight improvement from where it was on Election Day, when the RCP average put him at 42.2 percent in his head-to-head matchup with Hillary Clinton (he trailed the Democratic nominee by 3.3 percentage points).
There was a time when the White House panicked any time a president’s approval rating dipped below 50 percent. As the last election proved, that is no longer such a major concern, given voters’ increased fragmentation. These days, 40-plus percent is enough to move an agenda, as long as you are holding onto your core supporters, which appears to be the case as National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar pointed out this weekend:
“[P]ay close attention to Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg’s findings from a group of Macomb County, Michigan Trump supporters, all independents and Democrats.
Not a single one of the 35 Trump voters surveyed said they had any regrets about their vote for Trump, despite the swirl of controversies consuming the White House. They agreed that Trump “gives them hope” when he speaks.”
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The point to all of this? While the nonstop controversies of the Trump administration might be driving ratings for the Sunday shows and cable news, their coverage misses a fundamental paradox of Trump’s presidency: Despite all the negative coverage, he is just as popular with his core supporters as he was on Election Day. There may be a time when those historically weak numbers catch up with him (or his party), but in the next two years, they look strong enough for him to advance his agenda with his Republican majorities.
THE TRUMP PLAYBOOK
Congressional relations were never considered a strong suit for the Obama administration. The previous president made little time for courting members of Congress, particularly those members of the opposition party.
Trump, on the other hand, seems to have a more open-door policy. Democrats, including Maryland Rep. Elijah Cummings, have already visited the White House, along with members of the House Republican Study Committee and Freedom Caucus. This week the entire Congressional Black Caucus was invited to the White House to discuss the legislative agenda. Trump seems to relish personal contact, even with onetime detractors, and he is willing to roll up his sleeves to push legislation across the finish line.
Take a step back, and it’s pretty staggering what Trump has accomplished during his first 60 days in office. The president has essentially rolled back Obama’s entire agenda for energy, manufacturing and foreign affairs, while ripping up many of the regulations his predecessor put in place during his eight years in the Oval Office. TPP was stopped in its tracks with trade deals being redefined. It also looks like he will add a strong conservative to the Supreme Court with very little fight. And repealing Obamacare would obviously be a landmark achievement in the eyes of Republican voters.
Tax reform and an overhaul of Dodd-Frank continue to move forward. A major infrastructure spending bill – the crown jewel of Trump’s “America First” policy – is likely to be front-and-center in the run-up to the 2018 midterm elections.
Signing ceremonies for even half of these measures would be a remarkable accomplishment, especially in a world where expectations are close to zero. But Trump has made a habit of outperforming expectations during his relatively short two-year tenure in the political realm.
The political class inside-the-beltway continues to view this presidency through an antiquated lens. Grading President Trump requires throwing out the old playbook and accepting the fact that the ways of doing business in Washington have dramatically changed.
The legislative process will be shaped from the outside-in. Breitbart, the Drudge Report, the Freedom Caucus and conservatives like Rand Paul and Mike Lee in the Senate will air their differences with the GOP establishment before Trump engages. However, once he does, expect him to effective.
Can the art of the deal turn into effective whipping? If the ObamaCare repeal and replace legislation makes it across the finish line, expect this to serve as the playbook for the Trump administration going forward. At this point, it looks like the endless controversies create something of a smokescreen for the president to enact his agenda. And that is a story Americans definitely won’t miss.
UPCOMING LEGISLATIVE AGENDA
Having said all of that, the House Floor will continue to operate, moving several supplemental health care bills that were not able to be included in a reconciliation package.
Next week we expect the House to consider Medical Malpractice and Stop-Loss legislation.
Senator Flake's FCC Broadband Privacy CRA (that he is originating in the Senate) is also expected on the House’s agenda in the coming weeks.
There is pending legislation coming out of the Science Committee, the HONEST Act and the EPA Science Advisory Board Reform Act is expected most likely that first week of April.
And looming large over all this other pending legislation, is the possibility of an amended health care bill coming back to the House from the Senate. 1101 K Street, NW, Suite 650 | Washington, D.C. 20005 | www.cgcn.com
A BRIEF ENERGY AND REGULATORY ISSUES UPDATE
President Trump is expected to continue making good on his campaign promise to unwind components of President Obama’s Climate Action Plan. Trump’s actions are focused on a regulatory reform and pro-American energy agenda, and are expected to address federal lands and air issues related to both onshore and offshore activity. The onshore focus likely will cover a host of regulatory reforms including Obama-era rules on federal coal leasing, the Clean Power Plan (CPP), methane, social cost of carbon, NEPA, and national monument designations, among others. In the offshore space we could see actions on Alaska, the Atlantic, and the OCS 5-year plan in general.
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