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2017 Congressional Landscape

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2017 Congressional Landscape 2017 Congressional Update Presented by: Donald R. Cravins, Jr SVP for Policy/ED Washington Bureau [email protected] @dcravins Congressional Leadership of the 115th Congress 2 Senate MajoritySenate LeadershipMajority Leadership 6. Cory Gardner (R-CO) 2. John Cornyn (R-TX) Position: National Republican Position: Senate Majority 1. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Senatorial Committee Whip Position: Senate Majority Leader Chairman 3. John Thune (R-S.D.) 5. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) Position: Senate Republican Position: Senate Republican Conference Chairman 4. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) Conference vice chairman Position: Senate Republican Policy Committee Chairman 3 Senate MinoritySenate LeadershipMajority Leadership 3. Patty Murray (D-WA) 4. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) Position: Assistant Position: Chair of the 2. Dick Durbin (D-IL) Democratic Leader Democratic Policy and Communications Committee Position: Senate 1. Charles “Chuck” Schumer (D-NY) Democratic Whip Position: Senate Minority Leader 9 Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) Position: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman 5. Elizabeth Warren 6. Mark Warner (D-VA) 7. Amy Klobuchar (D- 8. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (D-MA) Position: Vice Chair of the MN) Position: Chair of Position: Vice Chair of the Democratic Conference Position: Chair of Outreach Democratic Conference Steering Committee 4 House MajorityHouse Leadership Majority Leadership 2. Kevin McCarthy (CA-23) 5. Luke Messer (IN-6) Position: House Majority Position: Republican Policy Leader 1. Paul Ryan(WI-1) Committee Chairman Position: Speaker of the House 3. Steve Scalise (LA-1 ) 6. Steve Stivers (OH-15) Position: House Republican 4. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA- Position: National Whip 5) Republican Congressional Position: Republican Conference Committee Chairman Vice Chair 5 REPUBLICAN FACTIONS Opposing factions in the Republican Party threaten to impede its ability to form a majority in the House If Dems maintain unity, GOP can only lose 22 votes Freedom Caucus Moderate Republicans Tuesday Group More conservative caucuses Vacancies Freedom Caucus (~30 members) Majority line • Farthest-right group of Republicans • Chair, Mark Meadows (R-NC11) House Liberty Caucus (~35 members) • Libertarian wing of the Republican party • Chair, Justin Amash (R-MI03) Republican Study Committee (~170 members) • Strong conservatives, limited spending and traditional values • Chair, Mark Walker (R-NC06) Moderate caucuses Tuesday Group (~50 members) • Moderate fiscal conservatism and more socially liberal • Co-chairs, Charlie Dent (R-PA15), Elise Stefanik (R-NY21) • Tom MacArthur (R-NJ03) recently resigned as co- chair after the contentious AHCA vote Republicans 239 Republican Main Street Partnership (65 representatives, 4 senators) Tuesday Group ~52 • More centrist, attempts to form bipartisan initiatives • Chair, Amory “Amo” Houghton (R-NY29, retired) Freedom Caucus ~30 Democrats 193 Whip stats (four vacancies) • Republicans hold a 46-seat lead Vacancies 3 • A majority requires 217 votes (if all members cast a ballot) Sources: National Journal Research, 2017. May 30, 2017 | Daniel Stublen House MinorityHouse Leadership Majority Leadership 1. Nancy Pelosi (CA-12) Position: House Democratic Leader 2. Steny Hoyer (MD-5) Position: House 3. James Clyburn (SC-6) Democratic Whip Position: Assistant Democratic Leader 4. Joseph Crowley (NY-14) Position: House Democratic Caucus Chairman 7 Congressional Black Caucus Leadership Congressional Black Caucus Leadership 2. Andre Carson (IN-7) 1. Cedric Richmond (LA-2) Position: Chairman 3. Karen Bass (CA- 37) Position: Vice Chairman Position: Vice Chairman 4. Brenda Lawrence (MI -14) 5. Gwen Moore (WI-4) Position: Secretary Position: Whip 8 HOUSE CAUCUSES Moderates in the House form a strong majority over each party’s farthest wings House makeup by caucus membership House Republican Conference 239 Freedom Caucus Moderate Republicans Tuesday Group Freedom Caucus 30* Progressive Caucus Moderate Democrats Blue Dog Coalition Tuesday Group 50* Vacancies Republican Study Committee 170* Republican Main Street Partnership 65* House Democratic Caucus 193 Blue Dog Coalition 17 New Democrat Coalition 61 Progressive Caucus 70 Vacancies 3 50 17 159 106 Whip stats • Republicans hold a 46-seat lead • A majority requires 217 votes (if all 30 70 members cast a ballot) • If Republicans lose all Freedom Caucus votes, they require 7 centrist Democratic votes to form a majority *Estimated caucus size; rosters have not been finalized and published for the 115th Congress. The House Freedom Caucus does not publish its member list. Sources: National Journal Research, 2017. June 5, 2017 | Daniel Stublen 2018 Congressional Elections Landscape 10 Presidential Approval Ratings President Trump’s Approval Ratings, Jan. 20th - present 60% 50% 45% 43% 42% 43% 42% 43% 41% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 37% 30% Gallup: June 5 Presidential Approval Ratings Gain or loss for president’s party in first midterm of presidency: 150Since1946 the Civil1954 War, 1982President’s1994 party2002 has2010 lost 125 100 seats in 36 of 39 midterms - 75 losing an average of 33 seats 50 63% Approve 25 61% Approve 0 2 0 SENATE HOUSE SENATE HOUSE SENATE HOUSE SENATE HOUSE SENATE HOUSE SENATE HOUSE -25 -2 -8 -8 -6 -11 -18 -50 -26 -54 -54 -75Since 1914, President’s party has lost Senate-63 -100 -125 seats in 20 out of 25 midterm elections -150 -175 33% Approve 42% Approve 48% Approve 45% Approve Gallup 2016 Presidential Election Clinton: 232 EVs (States) Trump: 306 EVs (States) 12 4 NH 4 3 3 1 7 10 VT 3 Clinton beat4 Trump3 by nearly10 7M 29votes in 3 16 MA 12 CA, MA & NY (65-35% margin).6 In20 the otherRI 4 6 5 18 55 6 20 11 47 states (plus9 DC), Trump received5 13 4M CT 7 6 10 8 15 NJ 15 more11 votes (winning7 52%11 - 48%). 5 6 9 DE 3 6 9 16 3 38 8 MD 10 DC 3 29 4 County Breakdown All Counties 100 Largest Counties 3500 100 88 86 88 3000 78 2420 2439 2536 75 71 73 70 2500 th 8 consecutive2600 Presidential57 69 2000 2238 1582 Election within50 10 points 1500 1587 1519 1526 43 31 1000 875 25 468 29 30 27 22 500 674 583 693 12 14 12 0 0 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Uncompetitive Counties Counties where presidential candidates won the two-party popular vote by more than 20 percentage points: Along the Acela Corridor and Pacific Coast, Democrats hold a 98-33 House Seat advantageIn 1992, 1,096 over countiesRepublicans. were In decided the other by 40single states-digit, Republicans margins. Inhold 2016, 208 only seats 303 to countiesDemocrats’ had close 96 margins.. In these same 40 states, Donald Trump won 306 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 80. Cook Political Report Landslides Everywhere Share of U.S. voters living in counties where either major-party candidate won by a margin of: The number of “extreme landslide” counties – those in which one presidential candidate won by more than 50 percentage points – rose from 93 in 1992 to 1,196 in 2016 Cook Political Report Competitive Seats Only 33 competitive House seats in 2016 – a greater than 80 percent drop Single Party Representation The last time Congress had 15 states represented by only one political party in both chambers was 1957 Data provided by Smart Politics Partisan Divide Districts split between Congressional representation and presidential preference: 111th Congress: 2009 115th Congress: 2017 Republicans in 23 First time in 100+ years thatClinton districtspercentage35 12 of 34 49 split districts83 Democrats has in been in single digitsDemocrats in in Republicans in McCain districts Trump districts Obama districts consecutive elections Only 1 Dem352 (Collin 405 Peterson) remains from a McCain dist. Partisan Politics View the opposing party “very unfavorably” & as a “threat to the nation’s well being”: 70% 41% of Dems view Republican70% policies as a threat. More than 1/2 of Dems (55%) say58% 60% 55% 60% 50% the Republican Party makes50% them “afraid.” 40% 40% 45% 41% 43% 38% 30% 30% 29% 20% 20% 45% of Republicans view Dem policies21% as a 17% 10%threat.16% 58% of Republicans10% have a very 0% 0% unfavorable1994 2004 2014impression2016 of 1994the Dem2004 Party2014 .2016 Pew Research Center | 2016 Party Makeup of the 115th Congress 21 Composition of 115th Congress Senate Democrats Gained 2 Seats 46 52 Independents 2 Presidential/Senate Vote Every state with a 2016 Senate race voted for the same party in both the Senate and presidential contest – a first ever Daily Kos Elections 2018 Senate Map ME* WA VT* MT ND MA 19.9 0.3 5.6 0.8 MN WI NY RI 3.9 20.5 WY MI PA NE CT NV 1.0 35.8 OH5.2 8.1 NJ UT IN CAMost Democratic seats in 50WV years 5.5 18.9 VA MO 8.9 0.7DE TN MD AZ NM MS 24 41.7 15.5 19.1 AL TX FL HI 12.8 1.2 25 Democrats* 9 Republicans Trump States: Margin over 10% MT ND IN WV MO Trump States: Margin under 10% WI MI PA OH FL Clinton State NV House Democrats gained net +6 1/3 House Dems194 come from 3 states: California, Massachusetts241 & New York 2018 Landscape: House 5 Open Seats 8 Open Seats 10 Highly Vulnerable MOCs 10 Highly Vulnerable MOCs 2 Vulnerable MOCs 11 Vulnerable MOCs 15 Potentially Vulnerable MOCs 12 Potentially Vulnerable MOCs 32 Seats 42 Seats Six 2018 House races are already considered ‘toss ups’ Democrats need to pick up 24*Not seats seeking to win reelection the House Circled districts have special elections in 2017; Special elections not listed: • KS-4 • CA-34 Democrats need to pick up 24 seats • toSC-5 win 25 Excludes all seats marked as ‘Solid Democrat’ or ‘Solid Republican’ 11 10 7 the3 House. 3 Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss up Lean Republican Likely Republican
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