Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in Asia Pacific October 2016

Working Paper

The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) serves as the United Nations’ regional hub promoting cooperation among countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable development. The largest regional intergovernmental platform with 53 Member States and 9 associate members, ESCAP has emerged as a strong regional think-tank offering countries sound analytical products that shed insight into the evolving economic, social and environmental dynamics of the region. The Commission’s strategic focus is to deliver on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which it does by reinforcing and deepening regional cooperation and integration to advance connectivity, financial cooperation and market integration. ESCAP’s research and analysis coupled with its policy advisory services, capacity building and technical assistance to governments aims to support countries’ sustainable and inclusive development ambitions.

The shaded a reas of the map indicate ESCAP m embers and associate members.

The cover:

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Disclaimer: The working papers of the Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division should not be reported as representing the views of the United Nations. The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations. Working papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper has been issued without formal editing and the designations employed and material presented do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Correspondence concerning this paper should be addressed to the e-mail: [email protected].

Acknowledgements

The working paper was prepared by Mr. Michael Ruddy, the Director of International Research at Terabit Consulting for the Information and Communications Technology and Development Section (IDS) of the Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division (IDD) of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

October, 2016

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Table of Contents Acknowledgements ...... 4 Acronyms ...... 10 I. Executive summary ...... 13 II. Country analysis: Afghanistan ...... 14 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 14 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 14 International Network Connectivity ...... 14 Figure 1: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Afghanistan (Gbps), 2005-2026 16 III. Country analysis: Azerbaijan ...... 17 Telecommunications Market Overview ...... 17 Mobile Telephony Market ...... 17 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 17 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 17 International Network Connectivity ...... 17 Figure 2: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Azerbaijan (Gbps), 2005-2026 .. 18 IV. Country analysis: Bangladesh ...... 19 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 19 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 19 International Network Connectivity ...... 19 Figure 3: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Bangladesh (Gbps), 2005-2026 20 V. Country analysis: Bhutan ...... 21 Fixed Line Telephony Market ...... 21 Mobile Telephony Market ...... 21 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 21 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 21 International Network Connectivity ...... 21 Figure 4: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Bhutan (Gbps), 2005-2026 ...... 22 VI. Country analysis: Cambodia ...... 23 Fixed Line Telephony Market ...... 23 Mobile Telephony Market ...... 23 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 23 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 23 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 23 5

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

International Network Connectivity ...... 23 Figure 5: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Cambodia (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 25 VII. Country analysis: India ...... 26 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 26 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 26 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 26 International Network Connectivity ...... 26 Figure 6: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in India (Gbps), 2005-2026 ...... 28 VIII. Country analysis: Indonesia ...... 29 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 29 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 29 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 30 International Network Connectivity ...... 30 Figure 7: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Indonesia (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 31 IX. Country analysis: the Islamic Republic of Iran ...... 32 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 32 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 32 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 32 International Network Connectivity ...... 32 Figure 8: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Gbps), 2005-2026 ...... 34 X. Country analysis: Kazakhstan ...... 35 Telecommunications Market Overview ...... 35 Fixed Line Telephony Market ...... 35 Mobile Telephony Market ...... 35 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 35 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 35 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 36 International Network Connectivity ...... 36 Figure 9: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Kazakhstan (Gbps), 2005-2026 37 XI. Country analysis: the Kyrgyz Republic ...... 38 Telecommunications Market Overview ...... 38 Mobile Telephony Market ...... 38 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 38 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 38 6

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

International Internet Bandwidth ...... 39 International Network Connectivity ...... 39 Figure 10: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Kyrgyz Republic (Gbps), 2005- 2026 ...... 40 XII. Country analysis: Lao PDR ...... 41 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 41 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 41 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 41 International Network Connectivity ...... 41 Figure 11: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Lao PDR (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 43 XIII. Country analysis: Malaysia ...... 44 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 44 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 44 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 44 International Network Connectivity ...... 44 Figure 12: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Malaysia (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 46 XIV. Country analysis: Maldives ...... 47 XV. Country analysis: Mongolia ...... 48 Fixed Line Telephony Market ...... 48 Mobile Telephony Market ...... 48 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 48 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 48 Figure 14: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Mongolia (Gbps), 2005-2026 .. 49 XVI. Country analysis: Myanmar ...... 50 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 50 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 50 International Network Connectivity ...... 50 Figure 15: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Myanmar (Gbps), 2005-2026 . 51 XVII. Country analysis: Nepal ...... 52 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 52 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 52 International Network Connectivity ...... 52 Figure 16: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Nepal (Gbps), 2005-2026 ...... 53 XVIII. Country analysis: Pakistan ...... 54 Fixed-Line Telephony Market ...... 54 7

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Mobile Telephony Market ...... 54 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 54 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 54 International Network Connectivity ...... 54 Figure 17: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Pakistan (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 55 XIX. Country analysis: the Philippines ...... 56 Telecommunications Market Overview ...... 56 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 56 International Network Connectivity ...... 56 Figure 18: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in the Philippines (Gbps), 2005- 2026 ...... 58 XX. Country analysis: the Russian Federation ...... 59 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 59 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 59 International Network Connectivity ...... 59 Figure 19: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in the Russian Federation (Gbps), 2005-2026 ...... 60 XXI. Country analysis: Singapore ...... 61 Fixed Line Telephony Market ...... 61 Mobile Telephony Market ...... 61 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 61 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 61 International Network Connectivity ...... 61 Figure 20: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Singapore (Gbps), 2005-2026 . 63 XXII. Country analysis: Sri Lanka ...... 64 Fixed Line Telephony Market ...... 64 Mobile Telephony Market ...... 64 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 64 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 64 International Network Connectivity ...... 64 Figure 21: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Sri Lanka (Gbps), 2005-2026 .. 65 XXIII. Country analysis: Tajikistan ...... 66 Regulation and Government Intervention ...... 66 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 66 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 66

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

International Network Connectivity ...... 66 Figure 22: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Tajikistan (Gbps), 2005-2026 . 67 XXIV. Country analysis: Thailand ...... 68 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 68 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 68 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 68 International Network Connectivity ...... 68 Figure 23: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Thailand (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 70 XXV. Country analysis: Turkey ...... 71 Fixed Line Telephony Market ...... 71 Mobile Telephony Market ...... 71 Internet and Broadband Market ...... 71 Domestic Network Connectivity ...... 71 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 71 Figure 24: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Turkey (Gbps), 2005-2026 ..... 72 XXVI. Country analysis: Turkmenistan ...... 73 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 73 International Network Connectivity ...... 73 Figure 25: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Turkmenistan (Gbps), 2005-2026 ...... 74 XXVII. Country analysis: Uzbekistan ...... 75 Regulation and Government Intervention ...... 75 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 75 Figure 26: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Uzbekistan (Gbps), 2005-2026 76 XXVIII. Country analysis: Vietnam ...... 77 International Internet Bandwidth ...... 77 International Network Connectivity ...... 77 Figure 27: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Vietnam (Gbps), 2005-2026 ... 78

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Acronyms

Third generation of wireless mobile telecommunications technology 3G Fourth generation of wireless mobile telecommunications technology 4G Africa -Asia -Europe cable AAE cable Asia Africa Europe -1 cable AAE -1 cable Asia Africa Europe -1 system AAE -1 system Asia -America Gateway system AAG system Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line ADSL Asia -Pacific Cable Network 2 APCN -2 Asia -Pacific Gateway APG Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao ARMM Asia Submarine -cable Express cable ASE cable Asia Submarine -cable Express system ASE system Bay of Bengal Gateway cable BBG cable Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal BBIN Bharat Broadband Network Ltd. BBNL Batam -Dumai -Melaka BDM Bangladeshi taka BDT BIMP -EAGA Submarine Terrestrial cable BEST cable Business process outsourcing BPO Batam -Rengit Cable System BRCS Batam -Singapore Cable System BSCS Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited BSNL Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Ltd BSSCL Bangladesh Telecommunications Company Ltd BTCL China United Network Communications Group Company Limited China Unicom China Mobile International Limited CMI Cross -Peninsular Cable System CPCS China Telecom Global Limited CTG Digital broadband network in Central and South Asia Digital CASA Dumai -Melaka Cable System DMCS Diverse Route for European and Asian Markets DREAM Digital Subscriber Line DSL Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company du East Asia Crossing City -to -City cable EAC -C2C cable Electricite du Laos EDL Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand EGAT Enterprise of Telecommunications Lao ETL Evolution -Data Optimized EvDO Fiber -to -the -home FTTH Fiber -to -the -premises FTTP Gigabyte GB Gigabyte per second Gbps Global Cloud Xchange GCX Gross Domestic Product GDP Teleguam Holdings GTA Hybrid fiber coax HFC High Speed Broadband HSBB

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Indonesia Broadband Plan IBP Information and communications technology ICT Internet protocol IP Internet service provider ISP Kilobyte per second Kbps Kyrgyzstan Som KGS Kazakhstan Temir Zholy KZT Local area networks LAN Luwuk Tutuyan Cable System LTCS Long -Term Evolution LTE Megabyte per second Mbps Malaysia -Cambodia -Thailand cable MCT Cable Malaysia -Cambodia -Thailand cable MCT cable Megahertz MHz Mobile TeleSystems MTS Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications MPT Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited MTNL Malaysian Internet Exchange MyIX National Optical Fibre Network NOFN Optical Fiber Cable Ring OFC Optical ground wire OPGW Philippines Long Distance Telephone Company PLDT Pishgaman Oman -Iran cable POI cable Russian Optical Trans -Arctic Cable System ROTACS RAM Telecom International RTI South Asian Subregional Economic Cooperation SASEC South Atlantic 3/South Africa Far East SAT -3/SAFE South -East Asia - Middle East - Western Europe 3 Sea -Me -We -3 South -East Asia - Middle East - Western Europe 4 Sea -Me -We -4 South -East Asia - Middle East - Western Europe 5 Sea -Me -We -5 South -East Asia – United States cable SEA -US cable South -East Asia – United States consortium SEA -US consortium Singapore Telecommunications Limited Singtel Sistem Kabel Rakyat 1Malaysia cable SKR1M cable Sri Lanka Telecom PLC SLT Sulawesi Maluku Papua Cable System SMPCS Short Message Service SMS Silk Route Gateway cable SRG -1 cable Saudi Telecom Company STC Star Telecom Lao STL Synchronous Transport Module 45 STM -45 Synchronous Transport Module 64 STM -64 Iran Power Generation Transmission & Distribution Management Company TAVANIR Terabyte per second Tbps Telecommunication Company of Iran TCI Egypt Telecom TE Trans -Eurasia Information Network TEIN PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia International Telin Telecom Italia Sparkle TI Sparkle 11

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Telecommunications Infrastructure Company TIC Telekom Malaysia Berhad TM Turk Telekom International TTI Trans World Associates Limited TWA United states dollar USD Voice over IP VoIP Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access WiMax World Trade Organization WTO

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

I. Executive summary

This working paper aims to provide data and update analysis 1 on broadband connectivity, specifically in the area of broadband and telephony markets, domestic and international Internet connectivity as well as international bandwidth among 27 ESCAP member countries, namely Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Viet Nam. In addition, historical trends and projected requirements for international bandwidth for voice, corporate data as well as the international Internet are presented for each country.

This study was conducted in support of the Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway (AP-IS), a regional broadband connectivity initiative 2. The AP-IS is designed around four pillars of 1) developing physical ICT infrastructure, 2) improving Internet traffic and network management, 3) enhancing e-resilience and 4) promoting digital inclusion. The AP-IS initiative aims to be a catalyst to develop seamless regional broadband networks which improve affordability, reliance, resilience and coverage and thereby narrow the digital divide, develop the Internet ecosystem, support the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and stimulate digital economy in Asia and the Pacific.

In recognition of the need for concerted regional efforts to address the disparities and develop broadband connectivity for the achievement of SDGs, the inaugural session of the Committee on Information and Communications Technology, Science, Technology and Innovation 3, held from 5-7 October 2016 in Bangkok, endorsed the AP-IS Master Plan 4 and Regional Cooperation Framework Document 5.

This report was developed in support of the AP-IS Pillars on developing physical ICT infrastructure as well as improving Internet traffic and network management. The findings point to disparities within the Asia- Pacific region in terms of available international bandwidth, affordability and physical ICT infrastructure.

The report aims to stimulate discussions among policy and decision makers, private sector, academia and think tanks on how regional broadband connectivity could be shaped for inclusive broadband and digital economy for the achievement of SDGs and to promote concrete policy and regulatory updates, financing and investment requirements and implementation modalities to pave the way to realize the vision of the AP-IS.

1 The findings of this study builds on previous ESCAP studies, including ESCAP (2015), “An In-Depth Study on the Broadband Infrastructure in Afghanistan and Mongolia”, available from http://www.unescap.org/resources/depth-study-broadband- infrastructure-afghanistan-and-mongolia-0; ESCAP (2015), “An in-depth study on the broadband infrastructure in South and West Asia”, available from http://www.unescap.org/resources/depth-study-broadband-infrastructure-south-and-west-asia-0; and ESCAP (2015), “An In-Depth Study on the Broadband Infrastructure in Afghanistan and Mongolia”, available from http://www.unescap.org/resources/depth-study-broadband-infrastructure-afghanistan-and-mongolia 2 ESCAP, "Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway". Available from http://www.unescap.org/our-work/ict-disaster-risk- reduction/asia-pacific-information-superhighway/about. 3 http://www.unescap.org/events/committee-information-and-communications-technology-science-technology-and-innovation- first 4 http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/pre-ods/CICTSTI1_2E_rev1.pdf 5 http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/pre-ods/CICTSTI1_3E_rev1.pdf 13

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

II. Country analysis: Afghanistan

Domestic Network Connectivity

As of 2015, Afghanistan’s OFC Backbone Ring project had connected 21 provincial capitals: Kabul; Jalalabad; Laghman, Logar, Paktia, Khost, Paktika, Ghazni, Maidan Wardak, Qalat, Kandahar, Lashkargah, Heraat, Maimana, Sheberghan, Mazaar-e-sharief, Aibak, Pulekhumri, Kundoz, Parwan, and Takhar

In 2016, four additional provinces were expected to be connected: Bamiyan, Badakshan, Kapisa, and Kunar.

Many domestic connectivity projects have been delayed due to security issues. Due to such concerns, construction of the OFC Backbone Ring between Heraat and Maimana has yet to be completed; domestic connectivity is provided via an international connection through Turkmenistan which currently operates at a capacity of two STM-4s (1.244 Gbps), with an expected upgrade to STM-64 (10 Gbps).

Nine provinces remain unconnected: Farah, Panjsheer, Sarepul, Qalaienow, Zaranj, Daikundi, Chagcharan, Tarinkot, and Nuristan. The cost of connecting these provinces is USD$40 million.

There is reportedly some effort underway to ensure that the Afghan Ministry of Public Works provide for infrastructure sharing that would include the installation of new fiber optic duct during road construction and upgrading projects.

International Internet Bandwidth

Afghanistan’s international IP bandwidth (including private traffic) was approximately 15 Gbps as of year- end 2014, and between 24 and 27 Gbps as of year-end 2015.

The price of Afghan IP transit capacity as of 2016 was as low as $20-$25 per Mbps per month via Pakistan, while capacity purchased through other countries (e.g. Uzbekistan) cost as much as $170.

International Network Connectivity

International connectivity as of 2015 included two connections to Pakistan (at Turkham and Spin Boldak); one connection to Tajikistan (at Sherkhan Bandar); one connection to Uzbekistan (at Hayratan); two connections to Turkmenistan (at Aqina and Turghundi), and one connection to Iran (at Islam Qala).

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

As of 2015, capacity on the international links was as follows:

Table 1. Overview of capacity on the international links by city Design Utilized City Border Capacity Capacity

Torkham Peshawar, Pakistan 50 Gbps 18 Gbps

Sher Khan Bandar Tajikistan 2.5 Gbps 6 Mbps

Hayratan (Mazar i Sharif) Uzbekistan 5 Gbps 3 Gbps

Aqinah Turkmenistan 2.5 Gbps 1.9 Gbps

Torghundi Turkmenistan 2.5 Gbps 1.2 Gbps

Islam Qala Iran 2.5 Gbps 624 Mbps

Spin Boldak Quetta, Pakistan 20 Gbps 8.7 Gbps Source: Author’s estimation based on field survey information.

Proposed international connectivity includes a planned 480-kilometer link to China from Faizabad, Badakshan via the Wakhan Corridor. The first 44 kilometers of the project, from Faizabad to Baharak, were under construction as of mid-2015. From Baharak to Broghel via Ishkashim and Khondood, installation along a mostly gravel road was being considered. For the final 117 kilometers of the link, installation would be along a mountainous track between Broghel and the Chinese border.

In late-2015 the World Bank Group commissioned a study to determine the feasibility of the Digital CASA project, which would connect Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan, with the potential for interconnection and/or future expansion to Iran, Kazakhstan, China, and other neighboring countries.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 1: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Afghanistan (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.3 0.5 0.8 1 1.5 2 2.8 3.8 6.7 13.4 22.0 International Corporate Data 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 International Switched Voice 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total International Bandwidth 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.8 3.8 5.1 8.4 15.4 24.4 CAGR (2005-2015) 48%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 35 61 104 189 321 530 778 1,106 1,555 2,162 2,945 International Corporate Data 3 5 8 13 21 34 54 86 137 220 352 International Switched Voice 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Total International Bandwidth 39 67 113 203 343 565 833 1,193 1,694 2,384 3,299 CAGR (2016-2026) 56%

30 3,500

25 3,000

2,500 20 2,000 Voice Voice 15 (Gbps) Corporate (Gbps) 1,500 Corporate Data 10 Data Internet 1,000 Internet

5 500

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

III. Country analysis: Azerbaijan

Telecommunications Market Overview

In the near-term, the Azerbaijani telecommunications market is expected to be negatively impacted by weak prices for petroleum, which accounts for more than 40 percent of gross domestic product and almost three-fourths of government revenue. Over the course of 2015, the Azerbaijani manat lost half its value, most acutely in December of 2015 when the Azerbaijani government adopted a floating currency regime. However, the ICT sector has been positioned as a cornerstone of the government’s economic diversification plan and will likely benefit from regulatory reform, promotion of competition, and government intervention in the form of the National Broadband Development Plan, which is focused largely on fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) technology and increased rural penetration.

Mobile Telephony Market

The mobile telephony market has leveled off at approximately 10 million subscribers, well over 100 percent of the population. The fixed-line market also remains relatively constant, although it continues to add a modest 15,000 lines per year.

Internet and Broadband Market

ADSL subscribership increased 20 percent to 477,000 while the total number of fixed Internet connections grew to 710,000; mobile broadband subscribership totaled 883,000.

International Internet Bandwidth

The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan reported in its core indicators on ICT infrastructure that the country’s international Internet bandwidth was 35.1 Kbps per capita as of 2014, implying a total of 340 Gbps. IP transit capacity was priced at approximately $20 per Mbps per month as of 2015.

The price of wholesale Internet bandwidth, as well as consumer Internet service, has fallen significantly over the last six to seven years, with the country’s leading wholesale provider, Delta Telecom, procuring relatively inexpensive bandwidth via Russian providers TTK and Rostelecom, as well as the Turkish incumbent operator Turk Telekom.

International Network Connectivity

In March of 2015 the Government of Turkmenistan indicated that it would move forward with plans to construct a submarine cable between Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan and Baku, Azerbaijan, as part of the Trans-Eurasian Information Superhighway (TASIM) project.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 2: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Azerbaijan (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.3 0.8 2.5 5.0 10.0 40.0 100.0 200.0 260.0 340.0 390.0 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 6.0 15.0 30.0 39.0 51.0 58.5 International Switched Voice 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Total International Bandwidth 0.4 1.0 3.0 5.9 11.6 46.1 115.2 230.2 299.2 391.2 448.8 CAGR (2005-2015) 101%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 550 800 1,160 1,680 2,440 3,540 5,130 7,440 10,790 15,650 22,690 International Corporate Data 70 100 150 230 350 530 800 1,200 1,800 2,700 4,050 International Switched Voice 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Total International Bandwidth 620 900 1,311 1,911 2,791 4,071 5,931 8,641 12,591 18,351 26,742 CAGR (2016-2026) 46%

500 30,000

450 25,000 400

350 20,000 300 Voice Voice 250 15,000 (Gbps) (Gbps) 200 Corporate Corporate Data 10,000 Data Internet 150 Internet 100 5,000 50

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

IV. Country analysis: Bangladesh

Internet and Broadband Market

In February of 2016, BTCL reduced the prices of its BCube ADSL service; at the same time, it announced that it would eliminate volume-based packages with data limits.

The price of its 256-Kbps service was reduced from 450 BDT (USD $5.75) to 300 BDT (USD$3.75); its 512-Kbps service was reduced from 700 BDT ($9.00) to 500 BDT ($6.50); and its 1.5 Mbps package was reduced from 1,600 BDT (USD$20.50) to 1,000 BDT ($12.75).

International Internet Bandwidth

Bangladesh’s international Internet bandwidth was 91 Gbps as of year-end 2014.

In September of 2015, the Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Ltd. (BSCCL) announced a 42 percent reduction in the price of IP transit at international gateways, from 1,068 BDT (USD$14) per Mbps per month to 625 BDT (USD$8). The price applied to wholesale volume purchases at 10 Gbps or greater.

BSCCL has announced several deals to sell what it considers to be surplus capacity on the Sea- Me-We-4 cable to foreign clientele, including an agreement in June of 2015 with BSNL to lease 10 Gbps of bandwidth at a reported price of approximately $100,000 per month, as well as a long-term transaction in August of 2015 with Telecom Italia Sparkle for 90 Gbps of bandwidth. The latter transaction attracted criticism for what was reported to be an extremely low price, but BSCCL officials defended the sale, claiming that much of the company’s Sea-Me-We-4 capacity was unused, and that the BSCCL investment had been profitable. The company said that Bangladesh faced no shortage of bandwidth, given BSCCL’s 1.3 Tbps of capacity in the planned Sea-Me-We-5 cable, due to enter service in 2016.

International Network Connectivity

In April of 2015 the Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Ltd. confirmed its participation in the Sea-Me-We-5 project, with a total investment of $73 million, funded in part through a $44 million loan from the Islamic Development Bank. As of early-2016 the 24-Tbps, three-fiber-pair cable had been landed in France, Djibouti, Malaysia, and Singapore, and was expected to be fully-completed later in the year.

In late-2015 fiber connectivity was installed between Panchagarh and Banglabandha, a distance of 58 kilometers, in anticipation of a BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) fiber network within the aegis of the South Asian Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC) Information Superhighway. It was expected that the network would be used to export BSCCL’s excess submarine cable capacity to neighboring countries.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 3: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Bangladesh (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0 0 1 3 6 10 18 35 50 91 150 International Corporate Data 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 15 26 International Switched Voice 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 Total International Bandwidth 1 1 3 5 9 14 24 44 61 111 182 CAGR (2005-2015) 68%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 250 380 570 850 1,270 1,900 2,800 4,200 6,300 9,300 13,500 International Corporate Data 38 55 80 117 169 245 356 516 748 1,084 1,572 International Switched Voice 7 9 10 12 14 17 20 23 27 32 37 Total International Bandwidth 295 444 660 979 1,453 2,162 3,176 4,739 7,075 10,416 15,109 CAGR (2016-2026) 48%

200 16,000

180 14,000 160 12,000 140 10,000 120 Voice Voice 100 8,000 (Gbps) (Gbps) 80 Corporate Corporate 6,000 Data Data Internet 60 Internet 4,000 40 2,000 20

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

V. Country analysis: Bhutan

Fixed Line Telephony Market

Bhutan’s fixed-line market continued to shrink, with only 21,811 subscribers, consisting mostly of government, institutional, and corporate customers.

Mobile Telephony Market

Bhutan’s mobile telephony penetration rate was 87 percent as of year-end 2015. Bhutan Telecom had 486,228 mobile subscribers and a 72 percent market share, while Tashi Cell had 190,200 subscribers and a 28 percent share.

Bhutan Telecom’s share of the 3G market was 78 percent, while Tashi InfoComm had a 22 percent share. Bhutan Telecom launched 4G in Thimphu in 2013, while Tashi InfoComm was expected to launch in 2016.

Internet and Broadband Market

The Bhutan Infocomm and Media Authority reported Internet subscribership to be 482,068, or 64 percent of the population, as of year-end 2015. Most subscribers (94 percent) used 3G wireless service, while fixed-line accounted for only 6 percent of subscribers. There were 500 4G subscribers.

International Internet Bandwidth

Bhutan’s international Internet bandwidth was 5.7 Gbps as of year-end 2014. Bandwidth is expected to increase significantly in 2017 when the government plans to implement a third Internet link. A feasibility study was reportedly being procured for the project as of late-2015.

International Network Connectivity

Because Bhutan’s two international links both converge in Siliguri, India, as of 2015 Bhutan’s government was reportedly exploring the purchase of an alternative route that would access Bangladesh’s capacity on the Sea-Me-We-4 submarine cable.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 4: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Bhutan (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 3.1 5.7 7.5 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 International Switched Voice 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total International Bandwidth 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.8 6.4 8.4 CAGR (2005-2015) 61%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 15 35 55 86 136 213 334 525 800 1,200 1,650 International Corporate Data 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 30 50 80 120 International Switched Voice 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 Total International Bandwidth 16 37 58 91 145 227 356 555 851 1,281 1,771 CAGR (2016-2026) 60%

9 2,000

8 1,800

7 1,600 1,400 6 1,200 5 Voice Voice 1,000

(Gbps) 4 (Gbps) Corporate 800 Corporate Data 3 Data Internet 600 Internet 2 400

1 200

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

VI. Country analysis: Cambodia

Fixed Line Telephony Market

There were 284,000 fixed line subscribers as of year-end 2015.

Mobile Telephony Market

There were 21.7 million mobile subscribers as of year-end 2015.

Internet and Broadband Market

As of mid-2015 there were 6.2 million mobile Internet subscribers and 77,000 fixed Internet subscribers in Cambodia.

For the period 2013 to 2018, Cambodia has adopted a five-year Broadband Strategic Action Plan, which includes development of competition, reform of the country’s regulatory environment, promotion of investment, community broadband access, availability and affordability, increased consumer broadband penetration and increased broadband availability in schools and universities, and e-Government initiatives.

Cambodia’s ICT Master Plan 2020 calls for increased investment in expanding ICT penetration, training, and employment, as well as ICT usage in education and across e-government applications. The plan also calls for increased investment in national backbone infrastructure and network connectivity.

Typical consumer broadband pricing was as follows: 1. USD$8 per month + USD$8 deposit for 1 Mbps ADSL (Telecom Cambodia) 2. USD$40 per month for 1 Mbps ADSL or WiMax (Ezecom)

The cheapest 1 Mbps package cost: $104 per year (Telecom Cambodia ADSL) / $1,200 nominal per-capita GDP = 8.7 percent of nominal per-capita GDP

Domestic Network Connectivity

Domestically, three terrestrial fiber networks are in service: as of 2015, Viettel’s optical fiber backbone had been expanded to 17,200 kilometers in length, the Cambodia Fiber Optic Cable Network covered 7,611 kilometers, and Telecom Cambodia’s fiber network spanned approximately 1,600 kilometers.

International Internet Bandwidth

Cambodia’s international Internet bandwidth was estimated to be 30 Gbps as of year-end 2014.

International Network Connectivity 23

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Three planned Cambodian submarine cable projects are currently under development or consideration.

The supply contract for the planned Malaysia-Cambodia-Thailand (MCT) cable was awarded to Huawei in May of 2015 and was reported to have come into force in September of 2015. The $75 million, 1,300-kilometer system would connect Cherating, Malaysia to Rayong, Thailand, with a branching unit to Sihanoukville, Cambodia. Its Cambodian investor is Ezecom, and the other two parties are Symphony Communication of Thailand and Telekom Malaysia, will have a design capacity of 30 Tbps and is expected to enter service in late-2016.

Cambodian ISP Chuan Wei was initially identified as an investor in the planned Asia Africa Europe-1 (AAE-1) system, but as of 2015 the consortium indicated that Chuan Wei had been replaced by Viettel subsidiary Metfone as the project’s Cambodian investor. The proposed AAE- 1 branch to Cambodia is not expected to be part of the system’s initial configuration, but may be constructed in subsequent expansion phases.

Chuan Wei announced in mid-2014 that it would serve as landing party for a Cambodian extension of the existing Asia Submarine-cable Express (ASE) cable, which connects Japan, Philippines, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore. The branch would be constructed via a submerged branching unit northeast of the Singaporean landing point. However, as of 2015 there had been no publicly-reported progress on its construction.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 5: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Cambodia (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 6.0 11.0 17.9 29.3 50.0 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.2 6.8 International Switched Voice 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 Total International Bandwidth 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.8 7.1 12.8 20.8 33.9 57.4 CAGR (2005-2015) 97%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 78 116 173 257 384 572 852 1,269 1,891 2,818 4,198 International Corporate Data 11 18 26 37 52 73 104 147 206 289 405 International Switched Voice 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 10 Total International Bandwidth 90 135 200 295 437 647 959 1,420 2,103 3,114 4,613 CAGR (2016-2026) 48%

70 5,000

4,500 60 4,000

50 3,500

3,000 40 Voice Voice 2,500

(Gbps) 30 (Gbps) Corporate 2,000 Corporate Data Data Internet 20 1,500 Internet 1,000 10 500

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

VII. Country analysis: India

Internet and Broadband Market

There were 15.75 million fixed-broadband subscribers and 69.99 million mobile broadband subscribers, for a total of 85.74 million broadband subscribers. DSL was the country’s leading fixed-broadband technology, with 13.0 million subscribers, while Ethernet/LAN connections served 1.6 million subscribers, cable modem 920,000 subscribers, fiber-to-the-premises 110,000, and leased lines 60,000.

In the fixed-broadband market, BSNL had a market share of 69.8 percent, Bharti 8.0 percent, MTNL 6.0 percent, Atria Convergence Technology 3.2 percent, and You Broadband 2.3 percent. In the mobile Internet market, Bharti had a 27.2 percent share, Vodafone 23.8 percent, Idea 13.8 percent, Reliance Communications 12.7 percent, and BSNL 8.2 percent.

Domestic Network Connectivity

In September of 2015, the Indian Department of Telecommunications said that it would submit plans for its $11 billion BharatNet program to India’s cabinet before the end of the year. The network would be developed by the special purpose vehicle Bharat Broadband Network Ltd. (BBNL) and would greatly expand the mandate of India’s $3 billion National Optical Fibre Network (NOFN) initiative, which aimed primarily to connect rural villages; BharatNet would provide broadband connectivity in urban areas as well.

The construction of a cable project linking Chennai, India to the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, with a landing point in Port Blair and additional connectivity to the Lakshadweep Islands, was expected to be approved by the Indian government in late-2015. The project, which would ultimately connect 22 islands in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands (including 18 islands with populations of over 100 and four islands with facilities for police, forest camps, and/or tourists) and 10 villages in the Lakshadweep Islands, would cost approximately $360 million. The Andaman & Nicobar Islands are served by four operators (Airtel, BSNL, Reliance, and Vodafone), while the Lakshadweep Islands are served by only two (Airtel and BSNL).

International Internet Bandwidth

India’s international Internet bandwidth was 1.864 Tbps as of year-end 2015. It was 1.295 Tbps as of year-end 2014.

International Network Connectivity

In January of 2015, Global Cloud Xchange said that it had shortlisted three vendors for the supply of its India Cloud Xchange cable, which it had previously announced in July of 2014 (at that time, the ready-for-service date of the system was mid-2016). The 5,060-kilometer system would link Mumbai and Singapore, with branches to Trivandrum and/or Chennai, and it would comprise four fiber pairs, each supporting 80 wavelengths of 100 Gbps, for a total capacity of 32

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Tbps. The cost of the system was estimated to be $200 million, although GCX said that it would invest only $40 million to $45 million, with the remainder provided by partner investors.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 6: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in India (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 3 6 10 14 42 148 275 608 678 1,295 1,864 International Corporate Data 1 1 2 3 8 27 50 109 122 288 423 International Switched Voice 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 14 23 27 Total International Bandwidth 8 11 17 23 57 184 335 729 814 1,606 2,314 CAGR (2005-2015) 76%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 2,700 3,900 5,700 8,400 12,300 18,100 26,600 39,100 57,500 84,500 124,200 International Corporate Data 590 900 1,300 1,900 2,800 4,000 5,400 7,800 10,500 14,135 19,027 International Switched Voice 32 38 45 53 62 73 86 102 120 141 166 Total International Bandwidth 3,322 4,838 7,045 10,353 15,162 22,173 32,086 47,002 68,120 98,776 143,393 CAGR (2016-2026) 46%

2,500 160,000

140,000 2,000 120,000

100,000 1,500 Voice Voice 80,000 (Gbps) (Gbps) 1,000 Corporate Corporate 60,000 Data Data Internet Internet 40,000 500 20,000

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

VIII. Country analysis: Indonesia

Internet and Broadband Market

Indonesia’s challenging topology, which comprises more than 17,500 islands across a length of 6,400 kilometers, has presented a significant obstacle in the development of broadband services outside of population centers in the country’s west. Maluku and Papua, in the east of the country, have Indonesia’s lowest household penetration rates, at only 58 percent of households for mobile (compared to 86 percent nationally), 16 percent for Internet (compared to 32 percent nationally), and 13 percent for computer ownership (versus 16 percent of households nationally).

Indonesia’s medium-term national development plan for ICT, covering the period from 2015 to 2019, aims to strengthen fixed broadband development through the sharing of passive infrastructure, the promotion of open access, and the development of multi-mode solutions that include fiber, wireless spectrum, and satellite. The country has also adopted a five-year broadband plan covering 2014 to 2019, known as the Indonesia Broadband Plan (IBP), which focuses on “innovation” to allow for the penetration, adoption, and effective use of broadband services to all districts, schools, and other public facilities, as well as government. By 2019, for urban areas, the IBP calls for fixed broadband penetration rates of 71 percent of households and mobile broadband penetration of 100 percent, while urban areas would have fixed broadband penetration rates of 49 percent and 52 percent, respectively. Fixed broadband speeds in urban areas would be 20 Mbps and 10 Mbps in rural areas, while mobile broadband speeds would be at least 1 Mbps.

Domestic Network Connectivity

In 2015 PT Telkom said that it was progressing in the development of the Sulawesi Maluku Papua Cable System (SMPCS), intended primarily to improve Internet and voice services in Maluku and Papua, which had been underserved and dependent primarily on satellite links. SMPCS comprises a Phase I (5,617 kilometers) and a Phase II (3,155 kilometers), at a total cost of $273.6 million. The system will serve 34 regencies and eight provinces in eastern Indonesia: East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, North Maluku, North Sulawesi, Papua, Southeast Sulawesi, South Sulawesi and West Papua.

Telkom Indonesia announced in May of 2015 that it would construct the 345-kilometer Luwuk Tutuyan Cable System (LTCS) between East Sulawesi and North Sulawesi. The project comprised part of a larger network connecting Sumatra and Merauke within the aegis of the Indonesia Digital Network initiative.

Also in mid-2015, the Indonesian government began a tender process for the Palapa Ring II project, with interest expressed by 27 companies including PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, PT Indosat, PT XL Axiata, PT NTT Indonesia, PT Cyber Network Indonesia. The project will be deployed in two phases, comprising a first phase of 1,823 kilometers connecting 11 regencies and cities in the western Indonesia at a cost of $56.7 million, and a second phase of 6,572 kilometers connecting 40 regencies and cities in eastern Indonesia at a cost of $181.1 million.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

International Internet Bandwidth

Indonesia’s international Internet bandwidth was estimated to be 525 Gbps as of year-end 2014.

International Network Connectivity

As of 2016, Indonesia’s interregional fiber optic connectivity remained extremely limited; only Sea-Me-We-3 provides intercontinental connectivity. The country is served by ten other international submarine cables; six of those connect only to Singapore, three connect only to Malaysia, and one provides connectivity to Thailand and Singapore.

Consequently, the country remains highly reliant upon transit capacity from its neighbors. In particular, well over 50 percent of Indonesia’s international Internet bandwidth transits via Singapore. This trend was reinforced by the construction of the Asia-America Gateway (AAG) system, a transpacific cable with landing points in Singapore and throughout Southeast Asia in which PT Telkom is a major investor but which includes no direct landing point in Indonesia. PT Telkom accesses AAG via its Batam-Singapore Cable System (BSCS), a 70-kilometer link constructed in 2009.

Proposed systems include PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia International (Telin)’s Sea-Me-We-5 cable. The Sea-Me-We-5 consortium consists of 17 other operators: Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Limited (BSCCL), China Mobile International Limited (CMI), China Telecom Global Limited (CTG), China United Network Communications Group Company Limited (China Unicom), Djibouti Telecom SA (Djibouti Telecom), Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company (du), Egypt Telecom (TE), Orange, Myanmar Post and Telecom (MPT), Ooredoo Qatar, Saudi Telecom Company (STC), Singapore Telecommunications Limited (Singtel), Sri Lanka Telecom PLC (SLT), Telekom Malaysia Berhad (TM), Telecom Italia Sparkle (TI Sparkle), Turk Telekom International (TTI) and Trans World Associates Limited (TWA). Sea-Me-We-5 design capacity will be 24 Tbps.

The SEA-US consortium reported in March of 2015 that construction of the $250 million system was underway, with an expected ready-for-service date of late-2016. SEA-US will have an initial capacity of 20 Tbps. In July of 2015 Hawaiian Telcom said that it had already tallied $30 million in pre-sales on the system. The SEA-US consortium consists of six entities: PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia International (Telin) in addition to its subsidiary Telkom USA, Globe Telecom, RAM Telecom International (RTI), Hawaiian Telcom, Teleguam Holdings (GTA), and Globe Telecom subsidiary GTI Corporation. In June of 2015 it was reported that PT Telekomunikasi would acquire GTA from the Japanese private equity firm Advantage Partners at a reported price of approximately $300 million.

There are also three proposed Indonesian submarine cables serving the west coast of Australia (APX-West, the Australia-Singapore Cable, and Trident Subsea Cable).

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 7: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Indonesia (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 2 3 8 25 60 115 155 250 362 525 761 International Corporate Data 0 0 1 3 8 15 20 32 46 66 96 International Switched Voice 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 Total International Bandwidth 4 6 12 31 71 134 179 287 414 598 865 CAGR (2005-2015) 73%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 1,102 1,585 2,279 3,277 4,712 6,777 9,745 14,013 20,150 28,976 41,668 International Corporate Data 139 200 288 414 596 857 1,232 1,772 2,548 3,664 5,269 International Switched Voice 9 11 12 14 16 19 21 25 28 32 37 Total International Bandwidth 1,251 1,796 2,579 3,706 5,324 7,652 10,998 15,809 22,727 32,673 46,974 CAGR (2016-2026) 44%

1,000 50,000

900 45,000

800 40,000

700 35,000

600 30,000 Voice Voice 500 25,000 (Gbps) (Gbps) 400 Corporate 20,000 Corporate Data Data Internet 300 15,000 Internet 200 10,000

100 5,000

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

IX. Country analysis: the Islamic Republic of Iran

Internet and Broadband Market

The number of Iranian Internet users as of late-2015 was reported to be 61.7 million, or 82 percent of the population. There were 6.6 million ADSL subscribers (16.6 million ADSL users), 2.7 million fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) subscribers (6.1 million FTTP users), and 29.1 million mobile subscribers who accessed the Internet.

Iranian Net Company began the implementation of a 500,000-port FTTH network in 2015, with completion expected in 2016. The network will provide speeds of up to 20 Mbps to subscribers in the cities of Karaj, Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz, Mashhad, and Qom.

ParsOnline and Pishgaman remain the country’s two largest Internet service providers. Other major ISPs include MobinNet, Datak, TCI, and Sepanta.

4G service was launched in late-2014.

Consumer broadband pricing remains unchanged in nominal terms since the 2015 study, although exchange rate fluctuations have resulted in a 10 percent reduction in US dollar terms.

Domestic Network Connectivity

The Ministry of Communications and Information Technology said in August of 2015 that the country’s domestic Internet capacity had increased to 2.4 Tbps, compared to 1.2 Gbps in mid- 2014 and 620 Gbps in mid-2013.

International Internet Bandwidth

As of year-end 2015, Iran’s international Internet bandwidth was 276 Gbps, representing a 93 percent increase from the mid-2014 bandwidth level of 143 Gbps. By March of 2016 the bandwidth had increased to approximately 300 Gbps.

As of 2015 the price of IP transit paid by state-owned operators was $22 per Mbps per month when purchased in increments of STM-1s. Due to sanctions, most IP transit bandwidth is purchased by Pishgaman Kavir Yazd Group, the operator of the Pishgaman Oman-Iran (POI) Cable, which entered service in 2012; the bandwidth is then resold by Pishgaman to the Telecommunications Infrastructure Company (TIC). As of 2015 TIC sold bandwidth to private operators at the price of $58 per Mbps per month.

International Network Connectivity

In June of 2015, a fiber optic link was inaugurated southeast of Zahedan, Iran, connecting Mirjaveh, Sistan and Baluchestan Province, Iran and Kuh-i-Taftan, Balochistan, Pakistan, with

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

STM-64 (10 Gbps) channels. The cost of the project, which was installed along Iran’s Route 84 and Pakistan’s N-40 Highway, was approximately $1 million. The Iranian government said that the cable would be integrated into the IT Silk Road project, connecting China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and Europe.

In 2016, Afghan Telecom confirmed that the fiber link connecting Islam Qala, Afghanistan, and TIC’s network in Dogharoun, Iran, was being upgraded from 2.5 Gbps to 10 Gbps.

The Europe-Persia Express Gateway (EPEG) network was scheduled to be upgraded in early- 2016.

Newly-planned international connectivity includes a 1-Tbps optical ground wire (OPGW)-based network under development by the Iran Power Generation Transmission & Distribution Management Company (TAVANIR), connecting Agarak, Armenia to Nordooz, Iran; Gurbulak, Turkey to Bazargan, Iran; Esendere, Turkey to Serow, Iran; and Penjwen, Iraq to Bashmaq, Iran.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 8: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 3 5 7 11 27 27 56 75 113 170 276 International Corporate Data 0 0 1 1 2 2 4 6 8 13 18 International Switched Voice 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 Total International Bandwidth 4 6 9 13 30 30 62 83 123 186 297 CAGR (2005-2015) 54%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 405 592 864 1,261 1,841 2,688 3,924 5,729 8,365 12,213 17,831 International Corporate Data 27 39 56 82 118 172 249 361 524 761 1,104 International Switched Voice 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 19 Total International Bandwidth 436 635 925 1,349 1,966 2,869 4,183 6,102 8,903 12,990 18,954 CAGR (2016-2026) 46%

350 20,000

18,000 300 16,000

250 14,000

12,000 200 Voice Voice 10,000

(Gbps) 150 (Gbps) Corporate 8,000 Corporate Data Data Internet 100 6,000 Internet 4,000 50 2,000

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

X. Country analysis: Kazakhstan

Telecommunications Market Overview

The Kazakh economy has suffered greatly as a result of the fall in petroleum prices; the tenge was the world’s worst-performing currency in 2015, having lost more than half of its value since 2013. However, growth of the Kazakh telecommunications sector is expected to continue as a result of its newly-acquired membership in the WTO, which will likely stimulate private investment.

Fixed Line Telephony Market

The fixed-line market, in which the incumbent state-owned operator, Kazakhtelecom, maintains a share of more than 90 percent, reached an inflection point in 2014, with modest contraction for the first time.

Mobile Telephony Market

Kazakhteleccom subsidiary, Altel, reported significant growth in 2014 and 2015, with estimated 3 million subscribers as of year-end 2015. In November of 2015 Tele2 announced that it would combine its mobile operations with Altel’s, for a combined subscribership of 5.6 million and a market share of approximately 22 percent. The new company will be 51 percent owned by Tele2 and 49 percent owned by Kazakhtelecom. It was viewed in part as a response to new government legislation allowing for mobile number portability.

Kcell remains the country’s leading mobile operator, with a 41 percent share of the market, followed by VimpelCom’s Beeline subsidiary, with 37 percent. Altel remains the country’s only provider of 4G services, having launched LTE in Almaty and Astana in 2013. Nationwide LTE coverage is expected by 2018.

In September of 2015, TeliaSonera announced its intention to exit the seven Central Asian markets that it serves; this will result in the sale of its Kazakh KCell subsidiary. Collectively, Central Asia accounted for approximately 20 percent of TeliaSonera’s revenue, however the company was beset by allegations of corruption surrounding its acquisition of an operating license in Uzbekistan, and it also reported difficulties in repatriating cash from some markets, as well as an inability to determine the ultimate identity of its local partners.

Internet and Broadband Market

In December of 2015, Kazakhtelecom announced that it and other Kazakh operators would begin intercepting telecommunications traffic as part of a new telecommunications law scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2016.

Domestic Network Connectivity

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

In May of 2015, the fixed-line, fiber backbone operator Transtelecom was partially-privatized when state-owned rail company KZT sold 49 percent of the company’s shares. Although the buyer was not identified, a press release indicated that the new investor would be required to “keep the profile of the company.”

International Internet Bandwidth

Kazakhstan’s international Internet bandwidth was estimated to be approximately 500 Gbps as of year-end 2014.

International Network Connectivity

Kazakhtelecom identified the following international connections as of 2015: - to the Elcat, Saima Telecom, and Kyrgyztelecom networks in Kyrgyz Republic, via Korday - to the Kyrgyztelecom network in Kyrgyz Republic, via Merke - to the Uztelecom network in Uzbekistan, via Abay - to the Uztelecom network in Uzbekistan, via Beineu - to the Turkmentelecom network in Turkmenistan, via Aktau - to the Rostelecom network in Russia, via Ganyushkino - to the Beeline, MegaFon, Kvant, Retn, and MTS networks in Russia, via Uralsk - to the Rostelecom, TransTelecom, and MegaFon networks in Russia, via Petropavlovsk - to the China Telecom and China Mobile networks in China, via Khorgos - to the China Mobile network in China, via Dostyk - to the China Telecom network in China, via Dostyk (planned)

Kazakhtelecom is the Kazakh partner in the Diverse Route for European and Asian Markets, also known as DREAM, which is led by Russian operator MegaFon; Interoute is also a partner in the project. DREAM connects Frankfurt to Hong Kong via Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, and China. MegaFon has indicated that the network offers a capacity of up to 8 Tbps and a round-trip latency of 175 milliseconds between Frankfurt and Hong Kong.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 9: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Kazakhstan (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 1 1 2 11 18 50 150 275 340 500 900 International Corporate Data 0 0 0 2 4 10 30 55 68 100 180 International Switched Voice 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Total International Bandwidth 2 2 3 14 23 61 181 331 410 602 1,082 CAGR (2005-2015) 92%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 1,400 2,050 3,200 4,800 7,000 10,500 15,400 22,500 32,900 48,200 70,500 International Corporate Data 280 410 640 960 1,400 2,100 3,080 4,500 6,580 9,640 14,100 International Switched Voice 3 3 4 5 6 8 10 11 13 15 18 Total International Bandwidth 1,683 2,463 3,844 5,765 8,406 12,608 18,490 27,011 39,493 57,855 84,618 CAGR (2016-2026) 48%

1,200 90,000

80,000 1,000 70,000

800 60,000

Voice 50,000 Voice 600

(Gbps) (Gbps) 40,000 Corporate Corporate Data 400 30,000 Data Internet Internet 20,000 200 10,000

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XI. Country analysis: the Kyrgyz Republic

Telecommunications Market Overview

The government remains a major investor in the Kyrgyz telecom sector, with a 78 percent stake in Kyrgyztelecom and 100 percent ownership of Alpha Telecom.

Both Kyrgyztelecom and Alpha Telecom operate their own fiber networks. Fiber networks owned by private operators include Sky Networks, Asia Info, and Aknet.

Mobile Telephony Market

Krygyz mobile penetration exceeded 100 percent as of year-end 2015. In September of 2015, the Kyrgyz State Property Management Fund completed an auction in which each of the country’s mobile operators (Nur Telecom/O!, Sky Mobile/Beeline, and Alfa Telecom/Megacom) received 10 MHz blocks of LTE-capable 800 MHz spectrum, at a cost of approximately 300 million KGS per band. Another LTE auction is expected in 2016. LTE was expected to play a key role in the improvement of rural broadband access and the implementation of ubiquitous e-government services.

Internet and Broadband Market

The Government of the Kyrgyz Republic hopes to attract investment in data center infrastructure by leveraging the country’s cool climate, as well as its low energy costs, which it says are among the lowest in the region. Ninety percent of Kyrgyz Republic’s power is hydroelectric, and the commissioning of the Datka-Kemin power transmission line in mid-2015 ended the country’s dependence on Uzbekistan’s transmission network to transit electricity from the southern part of Kyrgyz Republic to its north. Government sources have identified the country’s mountainous eastern region, bordering China, as an advantageous site for investment that could serve as a data center hub for China and Central Asia.

Domestic Network Connectivity

Kyrgyz Republic’s mountainous terrain poses a significant obstacle to universal coverage; Kyrgyztelecom is unable to cover the costs of providing fixed-line connectivity to all of the country’s villages. Kyrgyz mobile operators typically share infrastructure in the country’s most remote mountainous regions.

In January of 2016 the Kyrgyz government expected to launch a 60-kilometer fiber network connecting 36 government agencies in Bishkek, as well as three government data centers (two primary centers and one backup facility). The network was expected to improve data-sharing between government agencies and allow for new inter-agency applications including red-light cameras. As of late-2015, the Kyrgyz government was reportedly considering an e-Government strategy for the period ending in 2025.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Kyrgyz Republic’s state-owned electricity company has installed fiber along much of its power transmission network; as of 2015 the fiber was used only for internal use, although some sources indicated that the commercialization of the fiber network would eventually be considered.

Kyrgyz Telecom’s domestic long-haul fiber network spanned 1,996 kilometers as of year-end 2015. It also reported 601 kilometers of metropolitan fiber.

International Internet Bandwidth

Kyrgyz Republic’s total international bandwidth was increased from 15 Gbps to 30 Gbps in 2015, although some sources indicated that the country’s bandwidth would be further increased to 90 Gbps as the result of new connectivity installed in December of 2015. The price of IP transit had fallen from $60 per Mbps per month to $18 per Mbps per month.

International Network Connectivity

As of year-end 2015, Kyrgyz Telecom operated two international fiber links to Kazakhstan (30 Gbps), Tajikistan (4.4 Gbps), and (Uzbekistan (2.5 Gbps). Construction of a 2.5 Gbps link to China was complete but the system was not in service.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 10: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Kyrgyz Republic (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.8 4.0 4.1 13.8 28.5 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 International Switched Voice 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total International Bandwidth 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.5 2.3 4.9 5.1 15.1 30.1 CAGR (2005-2015) 60%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 88 137 212 318 447 623 855 1,224 1,724 2,305 3,099 International Corporate Data 2 4 6 13 24 33 47 66 92 128 179 International Switched Voice 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total International Bandwidth 90 141 219 332 471 656 902 1,290 1,816 2,433 3,279 CAGR (2016-2026) 43%

35 3,500

30 3,000

25 2,500

20 2,000 Voice Voice

(Gbps) 15 Corporate (Gbps) 1,500 Corporate Data Data Internet 10 1,000 Internet

5 500

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XII. Country analysis: Lao PDR

Internet and Broadband Market

Development of the Laotian Internet has been somewhat delayed. As of late-2015, there were only about 1,000 Lao-language websites, and only one-fifth of Laotian government offices had websites. Consumer access to Internet was further constrained by low levels of English literacy (30 percent), and low levels of overall literacy in the Lao language (73 percent). The government has committed to the promotion of “National Digital Literacy,” through the implementation of improved IT infrastructure at post offices and schools, as well as increased training of citizens.

Typical consumer broadband pricing as of year-end 2015 was as follows:

USD$15 per month for 1 Mbps ADSL (ETL) USD$30 per month for 1 Mbps ADSL (Unitel)

Cheapest 1 Mbps package: $180 per year (ETL ADSL) / $1,800 nominal per-capita GDP = 10 percent

Domestic Network Connectivity

As of October 2015, Lao PDR had 61,373 kilometers of optical fiber cable installed, according to the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications.

International Internet Bandwidth

In October of 2014 the Laotian Ministry of Post and Telecommunications reported that there were a total of 20 trans-border telecom links providing a total of 13 Gbps of international bandwidth, representing a five-fold increase from the total of 2.5 Gbps in mid-2013.

International Network Connectivity

There were five points of interconnection across Lao PDR’s border with Thailand (for a total of 5.7 Gbps), nine with Vietnam (3.3 Gbps), three across the Chinese border (for a total of 770 Mbps), two with Cambodia, five with Thailand (4.2 Gbps), and three with Myanmar. Lao Telecommunications Company (LTC) had 5.7 Gbps of international capacity, Star Telecom Lao (STL) had 2.6 Gbps, Enterprise of Telecommunications Lao (ETL) had 2.4 Gbps, Vimpelcom had 1.1 Gbps, Sky had 910 Mbps, and Planet had 310 Mbps.

Lao PDR’s primary intercontinental gateway is via the Asia-America Gateway (AAG) submarine cable station located in Vung Tau, Vietnam. It also accesses the Sea-Me-We-3 cable in Da Nang, Vietnam. Lao PDR has promoted the development of the planned Asia-Pacific Gateway (APG) submarine cable, which would land at the Da Nang cable station.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Electricite du Laos (EDL), Sky Telecom, and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT International Co.) announced in 2014 that they would evaluate the feasibility of constructing a fiber optic link along EDL and EGAT’s electricity transmission infrastructure.

Lao PDR is a participant in the Trans-Eurasia Information Network (TEIN), a 20-country research network initiative funded in part through an €8 million grant from the European Union.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 11: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Lao PDR (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 4.1 11.6 20.0 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.0 International Switched Voice 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 Total International Bandwidth 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.5 5.0 13.0 22.3 CAGR (2005-2015) 86%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 30 47 78 129 184 263 377 539 771 1,103 1,579 International Corporate Data 5 9 15 24 34 49 70 100 144 206 294 International Switched Voice 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 Total International Bandwidth 36 57 93 153 219 314 449 642 918 1,313 1,879 CAGR (2016-2026) 49%

25 2,000

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200

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XIII. Country analysis: Malaysia

Internet and Broadband Market

Malaysia’s High Speed Broadband (HSBB) initiative is a public-private partnership funded by the Ministry of Communications and Multimedia Malaysia, which has committed to funding of approximately USD$800 million and will oversee the planning and development of the project, while Telekom Malaysia has been assigned responsibility for the project’s actual implementation. Telekom Malaysia will also be required to provide open access to other service providers. The Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission, meanwhile, will act as an independent overseer, monitoring the progress of the project and verifying all claims and milestones in order for Telekom Malaysia to receive its quarterly government stipend.

As of 2013, more than one million computers had been distributed through the Netbook 1Malaysia program.

Domestic Network Connectivity

In September of 2015, Telecom Malaysia and Time dotCom signed a construction and maintenance agreement for the 3,500-kilometer Sistem Kabel Rakyat 1Malaysia (SKR1M) cable connecting Peninsular Malaysia to the states of Sabah and Sarawak (on the island of Borneo). The system would be partly funded by the country’s Universal Services Provision Fund and enter service in mid-2017. It would comprise two fiber pairs with 100 Gbps wavelengths, offering an initial capacity of 4 Tbps and a design capacity of 12.8 Tbps. The system would effectively serve as a replacement for the Malaysian Domestic Submarine Cable System, which entered service in 1995 and which has a lit capacity of 400 Gbps.

International Internet Bandwidth

International Internet bandwidth was estimated to have eclipsed 1 Tbps in 2015. The Malaysian Internet Exchange (MyIX) reported that Malaysian bandwidth consumption grew 200 percent between 2013 and 2014, from 349 Gbps to 760 Gbps.

International Network Connectivity

As of year-end 2015, Telekom Malaysia had investments in nine cable systems serving Malaysia: the Asia-America Gateway (AAG) system, Sea-Me-We-3, Sea-Me-We-4, SAT- 3/SAFE, APCN-2, the Batam-Rengit Cable System (BRCS), the Batam-Dumai-Melaka (BDM), the Dumai-Melaka Cable System (DMCS), and Cahaya Malaysia, which comprises two fiber pairs in the Asia Submarine-cable Express system. Outside of the region, Telekom Malaysia has ownership stakes in the transpacific Japan-US Cable Network and China-US Cable Network. Additionally, it is a party to the planned Bay of Bengal Gateway (BBG), Sea-Me-We-5, and Malaysia-Cambodia-Thailand (MCT) cables.

In addition to Telekom Malaysia’s BBG, Sea-Me-We-5, and MCT cables, as well as Global Transit’s AAE-1 and APG cables, two other planned systems would provide international 44

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

connectivity to Malaysia: Mythic, a cable connecting Malaysia, to Myanmar and Thailand, which has been proposed by Singapore-based Campana Group; and the BIMP-EAGA Submarine Terrestrial (BEST) Cable, which would connect the island of Borneo (landing points in Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia) to southern Philippines and onward to Guam.

Sea-Me-We-5 and BBG are both expected to enter service in 2016.

The supply contract for the Malaysia-Cambodia-Thailand (MCT) cable was awarded to Huawei in May of 2015 and was reported to have come into force in September of 2015. The 1,300- kilometer system will connect Cherating, Malaysia to Rayong, Thailand, with a branching unit to Sihanoukville, Cambodia. The $75 million project, led by Telekom Malaysia, Ezecom of Cambodia, and Symphony Communication of Thailand, will have a design capacity of 30 Tbps and is expected to enter service in late-2016.

The 1,516-kilometer Mythic cable, proposed by Campana Group, would connect Thanlyin, Myanmar; Penang, Malaysia; and Satun, Thailand. Representatives of Campana claimed in September of 2015 that it would be the first company after Myanmar Post and Telecommunications (MPT) to be awarded a submarine facility license by Myanmar authorities. Time dotCom and Loxley would serve as landing parties in Malaysia and Thailand, respectively. The system would have a capacity of 10 Tbps per fiber pair.

Construction of the 5,092-kilometer BIMP-EAGA Submarine Terrestrial (BEST) Cable System, connecting Parang, Magundanao in the Autonomous Regional of Muslim Mindanao, Philippines to Tawau, Malaysia and Guam was expected to begin in early-2016, with a target completion date of 2017.

At the wholesale level, Telekom Malaysia’s primary competition is Time dotCom subsidiary Global Transit, which began operating as a Malaysian Internet protocol network provider and was subsequently acquired by Time Group for $34 million in 2011. Global Transit owns a 10 percent stake in the Unity transpacific submarine cable linking Japan and the United States, and is an investor in the Faster transpacific cable which is expected to enter service in 2016, as well as the planned Asia Africa Europe-1 (AAE-1) cable. Global Transit is also a signatory to the 2012 construction and maintenance agreement for the planned Asia Pacific Gateway (APG) system; as of 2015, Time said that it expected APG to enter service in mid-2016. Time Group continues to compete aggressively against Telekom Malaysia with its terrestrial Cross-Peninsular Cable System (CPCS), which runs along Malaysia’s North-South Expressway from Thailand to Singapore, where it offers access to relatively low-cost IP transit capacity. Time reported that as of 2015, the CPCS had been upgraded to support 100 Gbps technology. Time operates data centers in Kuala Lumpur, Cyberjaya, Penang, Johor Bahru, Kota Kinabalu, and Singapore.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 12: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Malaysia (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 3 16 41 64 140 190 210 230 350 760 1,200 International Corporate Data 0 2 6 9 21 28 47 67 105 228 360 International Switched Voice 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 Total International Bandwidth 8 23 52 79 167 226 266 308 467 1,001 1,575 CAGR (2005-2015) 70%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 1,750 2,600 3,800 5,500 7,900 11,300 16,300 22,970 32,370 45,617 64,284 International Corporate Data 525 780 1,140 1,650 2,370 3,390 4,890 6,891 9,711 13,685 19,285 International Switched Voice 18 20 23 27 30 35 40 46 53 60 69 Total International Bandwidth 2,293 3,400 4,963 7,177 10,300 14,725 21,230 29,907 42,134 59,362 83,638 CAGR (2016-2026) 43%

1,800 90,000

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(Gbps) 800 (Gbps) 40,000 Corporate Corporate Data 600 30,000 Data Internet Internet 400 20,000

200 10,000

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XIV. Country analysis: Maldives

Fixed Line Telephony Market

Maldives had slightly fewer than 22,000 fixed lines in service as of year-end 2015.

Mobile Telephony Market

There were 745,000 mobile subscribers as of year-end 2015.

Internet and Broadband Market

As of year-end 2015 there were 23,000 fixed broadband subscribers and 226,000 mobile broadband subscribers.

International Internet Bandwidth

International Internet bandwidth grew from 12 Gbps as of year-end 2014 to 17 Gbps as of year- end 2015.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XV. Country analysis: Mongolia

Fixed Line Telephony Market

There were 249,000 fixed telephony subscribers as of mid-2015.

Mobile Telephony Market

There were 4.8 million mobile subscribers as of mid-2015, down slightly from year-end 2014, when there were reported to be 5.0 million. Market share was as follows: Mobicom 33.1 percent; Unitel 31.7 percent; Skytel 25.6 percent; and G-Mobile 9.6 percent.

Internet and Broadband Market

Internet subscribership totaled 2.1 million as of mid-2015. 3G was the leading technology, accounting for 90.4 percent of subscribers, while fiber-to-the-premises accounted for 7.0 percent. DSL accounted for 1.3 percent, Wi-Fi 0.7 percent, and WiMax 0.5 percent. Five-sixths of Internet subscribers were located in Ulaanbaatar.

4G LTE service was launched in 2015.

International Internet Bandwidth

International Internet bandwidth was 43 Gbps as of year-end 2014. Jemnet’s share of this bandwidth was 73 percent, Mobicom’s 17 percent, Netcom’s 6 percent, and Railcom’s 4 percent.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 14: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Mongolia (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 8.1 17.2 30.0 22.8 26.6 43.0 50.0 International Corporate Data 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.7 3.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 5.0 International Switched Voice 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.0 Total International Bandwidth 0 1 1 2 9 19 33 26 30 47 56 CAGR (2005-2015) 76%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 71 103 156 236 356 537 811 1,224 1,849 2,793 4,219 International Corporate Data 7 10 16 24 36 54 81 122 185 281 425 International Switched Voice 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 Total International Bandwidth 79 114 173 261 394 593 894 1,348 2,037 3,078 4,652 CAGR (2016-2026) 50%

60 5,000

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XVI. Country analysis: Myanmar

Internet and Broadband Market

As of year-end 2015, typical consumer broadband pricing was as follows:

1. USD$55 per month + USD$536 installation/equipment fee for 1 Mbps mobile WiMax, 10 GB download limit (Red Link Communications) 2. USD$100 per month + USD$145 installation/ equipment fee for 1 Mbps (Yatanarpon Teleport) 3. USD$63 per month + USD$475 installation for 1 Mbps FTTH+VoIP (Elite Tech)

Cheapest 1 Mbps package: $1,196 per year (Red Link WiMax) / $1,300 nominal per-capita GDP = 92 percent

International Internet Bandwidth

Myanmar’s international bandwidth was estimated to be 32 Gbps as of year-end 2014.

International Network Connectivity

As of year-end 2015, Sea-Me-We-3, a 39,000-kilometer system serving 34 countries, was the only undersea system serving Myanmar. Myanmar’s Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (MPT) 6 invested $30 million in the system, which entered service in 1999; MPT also operates the terrestrial fiber link between the Pyapon cable station and the country’s international gateway switch in Yangon.

Two proposed submarine cable projects between Europe and Asia would land in Myanmar: Sea- Me-We-5 and Africa-Asia-Europe (AAE). MPT is the Burmese signatory to both projects. Some sources have indicated that China Unicom would partly fund the capital and operational expenditures associated with building a branch of Sea-Me-We-5 to Myanmar, at a cost of $40 million. The sources further indicated that the arrangement would provide land-based redundancy for China’s own westward international demand, while others theorized that the investment was a prelude to China’s entry into Myanmar’s newly-liberalized telecommunications market, as well as an attempt by Chinese operators to capture transit demand bound for the United States from South Asian countries including India and Bangladesh.

A third proposed system, the 1,516-kilometer Mythic cable, would connect Thanlyin, Myanmar; Penang, Malaysia; and Satun, Thailand. Representatives of the project’s proponent, Singapore- based Campana Group, claimed in September of 2015 that it would be the first company after Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications to be awarded a submarine facility license by Myanmar authorities. Time dotCom and Loxley would serve as landing parties in Malaysia and Thailand, respectively. The system would have a capacity of 10 Tbps per fiber pair.

6 The Ministry was renamed as the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology. 50

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 15: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Myanmar (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 5.3 13.5 16.7 32.3 45.0 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.2 3.6 6.0 International Switched Voice 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Total International Bandwidth 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 5.9 15.0 19.1 36.2 51.3 CAGR (2005-2015) 74%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 75 120 190 290 430 620 900 1,310 1,900 2,760 4,000 International Corporate Data 10 14 21 30 44 63 92 133 192 279 404 International Switched Voice 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Total International Bandwidth 85 135 211 321 474 684 993 1,444 2,094 3,040 4,405 CAGR (2016-2026) 48%

60 5,000

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0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XVII. Country analysis: Nepal

Internet and Broadband Market

In 2015 the Ministry of Information and Communication issued a National Information and Communication Technology Policy which sought to leverage the country’s “Digital Nepal” initiative in order to facilitate Nepal’s eventual transformation into a “knowledge- and information-based society.”

The policy set several national goals for 2020, among them, that Nepal would rise to the “top second quartile” of international ICT development and e-government rankings; that broadband access would be extended to 90 percent of the population and Internet access to 100 percent of the population; and that actual broadband Internet penetration would reach 30 percent by 2018, with speeds of at least 512 Kbps in rural areas and 10 Mbps in urban areas.

International Internet Bandwidth

As of year-end 2015, Nepal’s international Internet bandwidth was 50 Gbps.

International Network Connectivity

Nepal’s fiber connectivity via India is provided by Airtel, BSNL, Tata, and Vodafone.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 16: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Nepal (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.0 4.0 7.0 12.0 20.0 32.0 49.0 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 International Switched Voice 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total International Bandwidth 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 2.1 4.1 8.1 13.1 22.2 36.2 55.2 CAGR (2005-2015) 89%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 74 112 171 260 395 600 912 1,386 2,107 3,203 4,869 International Corporate Data 9 13 20 31 47 72 109 166 253 386 588 International Switched Voice 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 Total International Bandwidth 83 125 191 291 443 673 1,022 1,553 2,361 3,590 5,458 CAGR (2016-2026) 52%

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XVIII. Country analysis : Pakistan

Fixed-Line Telephony Market

There were 3.1 million fixed-line subscribers as of 2015.

Mobile Telephony Market

Pakistani mobile subscribership totaled 125.9 million as of year-end 2015.

Internet and Broadband Market

As of year-end 2015 there were 3.1 million fixed broadband subscribers and 23.2 million mobile broadband subscribers in Pakistan. Among the fixed-broadband subscribers, DSL accounted for approximately half (1.5 million), and there were 1.4 million wireless local loop (EvDO) subscribers. WiMax served approximately 216,000 subscribers, hybrid fiber coax (HFC) served 45,000 subscribers, and fiber to the home (FTTH) served approximately 22,000.

International Internet Bandwidth

As of year-end 2014, Pakistan’s international Internet bandwidth was approximately 600 Gbps.

In early-2016, sources told Terabit Consulting that the price of IP transit capacity in Pakistan had fallen to as low as $8 per Mbps per month for bulk purchases of 1 Gbps or greater.

International Network Connectivity

In June of 2015, a fiber optic link was inaugurated southeast of Zahedan, Iran, connecting Mirjaveh, Sistan and Baluchestan Province, Iran and Kuh-i-Taftan, Balochistan, Pakistan, with STM-64 (10 Gbps) channels. The cost of the project, which was installed along Iran’s Route 84 and Pakistan’s N-40 Highway, was approximately $1 million. The Iranian government said that the cable would be integrated into the IT Silk Road project, connecting China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and Europe.

The Silk Route Gateway (SRG-1) cable, proposed by Omantel, would comprise a 900-kilometer branched cable connecting Blue City, Oman to Gawadar and Karachi, Pakistan.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 17: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Pakistan (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 1 5 9 14 35 70 130 200 300 600 800 International Corporate Data 0 1 1 2 5 10 18 28 42 84 112 International Switched Voice 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 Total International Bandwidth 2 8 12 18 43 83 152 232 347 690 919 CAGR (2005-2015) 85%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 1,100 1,600 2,320 3,364 4,878 7,073 10,256 14,871 21,562 31,265 45,335 International Corporate Data 158 230 333 483 700 1,015 1,472 2,135 3,096 4,489 6,508 International Switched Voice 8 10 12 14 16 19 23 27 32 37 42 Total International Bandwidth 1,266 1,840 2,665 3,861 5,594 8,107 11,751 17,032 24,690 35,791 51,886 CAGR (2016-2026) 45%

1,000 60,000

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700 40,000 600 Voice Voice 500 30,000 (Gbps) (Gbps) 400 Corporate Corporate Data 20,000 Data Internet 300 Internet 200 10,000 100

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XIX. Country analysis: the Philippines

Telecommunications Market Overview

The Filipino telecommunications market continues to be dominated by only two operators: Philippines Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT) and Globe Telecom, in which Singtel holds a 47 percent stake and Ayala Corporation holds a 30 percent stake. PLDT is the larger of the two groups, having acquired mobile operator Smart Communications in 2000 and a majority stake in Digital Telecommunications Philippines (Digitel) in 2011.

The San Miguel Corporation, which is the Philippines’ largest food and beverage conglomerate, has become increasingly aggressive in the country’s telecommunications sector through its subsidiaries and partnerships including Bell Telecommunications, Express Telecommunications (Extelcom), and Liberty Telecom Holdings (an investor in Wi-tribe). As of late-2015 San Miguel was negotiating with Telstra to launch a new 4G LTE mobile operator using San Miguel’s spectrum in the 700 MHz band. Telstra would invest up to USD$1 billion for a 40 percent stake in the new joint venture.

The Philippines’ telecommunications and Internet sectors are heavily influenced by the country’s position as a leader in business process outsourcing (BPO), particularly in the call-center sector. Some sources indicated that the Philippines overtook India as the world’s largest call-center industry as early as 2010; as of 2015 the Philippines’ BPO industry was estimated to be worth as much as $25 billion. At the consumer level, the Philippines had historically been known as the “text-messaging capital of the world” although some sources assert that recent declines (from historical highs of as many as 2 billion daily messages to the current average of approximately 500 million messages) have positioned the country behind the United States. PLDT reported that non-SMS data revenue slightly exceeded SMS revenue in 2014.

International Internet Bandwidth

Philippines’ international Internet bandwidth was estimated to be 1.2 Tbps as of year-end 2014.

International Network Connectivity

PLDT operates three international submarine cable landing stations. The first, in Batangas City, is the site of the APCN-2 and Sea-Me-We-3 landings. PLDT constructed a second cable station in 2009 in Bauang, La Union to serve the transpacific Asia-America Gateway (AAG) cable, and in November of 2011 PLDT began constructing its third cable station in Daet, Camarines Norte to serve the Asia Submarine-cable Express (ASE) system, in which the company invested USD$55 million.

Globe Telecom operates international submarine cable landing stations in Ballesteros, Cagayan and Nasugbu, Batangas for the TGN-Intra Asia and Southeast Asia-Japan Cable systems, respectively.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

In addition, the Telstra-owned EAC-C2C pan-Asian submarine cable network has dual landings in the Philippines, in Capepisa, Cavite and in Nasugbu, Batangas.

Two new submarine cable landing stations would be constructed in the south of the country for the SEA-US cable, which would land in Davao, and the BEST Cable, which would land in Parang in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 18: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in the Philippines (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 15 40 90 125 225 250 340 530 762 1,096 1,564 International Corporate Data 2 5 12 17 30 33 45 70 101 145 207 International Switched Voice 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 Total International Bandwidth 18 47 103 143 257 286 388 603 867 1,246 1,776 CAGR (2005-2015) 58%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 2,232 3,185 4,545 6,485 9,254 13,206 17,365 22,836 30,029 39,488 51,927 International Corporate Data 296 422 602 859 1,226 1,749 2,300 3,024 3,977 5,230 6,877 International Switched Voice 6 7 8 10 12 14 16 19 22 25 30 Total International Bandwidth 2,533 3,614 5,155 7,354 10,491 14,968 19,681 25,879 34,028 44,743 58,834 CAGR (2016-2026) 37%

2,000 70,000

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Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XX. Country analysis: the Russian Federation

Domestic Network Connectivity

Rostelecom announced in August of 2015 that it would implement a cable between Sakhalin Island and the Kuril Islands, with a ready-for-service date of 2016. The project would cost $51 million and be funded mostly from the Russian federal budget; it would span 940 kilometers and operate at a line rate of 40 Gbps.

International Internet Bandwidth

Russia’s international Internet bandwidth was estimated to be approximately 4.3 Tbps as of year- end 2014.

As of year-end 2015 the cost of IP transit in Moscow was approximately $2 per Mbps per month for volume purchases.

International Network Connectivity

In January of 2015, the Russian media reported that Nassau, Bahamas-based Polarnet Project Holding, the sponsor of the Russian Optical Trans-Arctic Cable System (ROTACS) would announce a tender for a new supplier to replace TE SubCom, with whom it had worked since 2012. A source “close to Polarnet” said that in 2015 the company hoped to complete an environmental impact assessment and secure permitting from the Ministry of Natural Resources. The estimated value of the project’s anticipated supply contract was reported to be $745 million, although additional costs such as civil works and land acquisition could push the total budget to $1 billion. The 16,373-kilometer cable would link Bude, United Kingdom and Tokyo, Japan via Murmansk, Anadyr, and Vladivostok, Russia and offer a design capacity of 60 Tbps.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 19: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in the Russian Federation (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 180 300 380 500 800 1,100 1,500 1,800 2,340 3,042 3,955 International Corporate Data 45 75 95 125 200 386 525 630 914 1,325 1,921 International Switched Voice 7 8 9 11 12 14 16 18 21 24 28 Total International Bandwidth 232 383 484 636 1,012 1,500 2,041 2,448 3,275 4,391 5,903 CAGR (2005-2015) 38%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 5,339 7,207 9,730 13,135 17,733 23,939 32,318 43,629 58,899 79,513 107,343 International Corporate Data 2,823 4,150 6,018 8,606 11,962 16,388 21,796 28,988 38,554 51,277 68,199 International Switched Voice 32 37 43 49 56 65 74 86 99 113 130 Total International Bandwidth 8,194 11,395 15,790 21,790 29,751 40,391 54,188 72,703 97,552 130,904 175,672 CAGR (2016-2026) 36%

7,000 200,000

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5,000 140,000

120,000 4,000 Voice Voice 100,000

(Gbps) 3,000 (Gbps) Corporate 80,000 Corporate Data Data Internet 2,000 60,000 Internet 40,000 1,000 20,000

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XXI. Country analysis: Singapore

Fixed Line Telephony Market

Singapore had 2.0 million fixed-line subscribers as of year-end 2015.

Mobile Telephony Market

There were 8.2 million mobile subscribers as of year-end 2015, representing a penetration rate of 148 percent.

Internet and Broadband Market

Total broadband subscribership was 11.9 million as of year-end 2015, of which 1.4 million were fixed and 10.5 million were mobile. Optical fiber was the primary fixed-line technology, serving 932,000 subscribers, followed by cable modem (387,000) and DSL (147,000).

International Internet Bandwidth

The Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) reported that Singapore’s total international Internet capacity was 2.952 Tbps as of year-end 2014.

Sources indicated that IP transit capacity cost as little as USD$2.50 per Mbps per month when purchased in volume.

International Network Connectivity

Singapore’s incumbent operator Singtel is a redoubtable force in the global submarine cable industry, having historically been a leading proponent of the Sea-Me-We submarine cables connecting Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Western Europe. It has also invested in multiple Asian regional submarine cable systems, most notably APCN-2 and SJC (in the late-1990s it spearheaded two major Asian regional systems, C2C and i2i, but ultimately divested its shares when each venture encountered financial difficulty).

Beyond Singapore, Singtel has stakes in two transpacific submarine cables connecting Japan and the United States, namely, the Japan-US Cable Network and Unity. Singtel’s subsidiary Optus is also a major submarine cable investor, and Singtel has strategic investments in Globe Telecom of the Philippines and Bharti of India, both of which have considerable international submarine cable capacity.

StarHub, one of Singtel’s two major competitors (the other is M1), is a relative latecomer to the submarine cable market, but has quickly emerged as a serious competitive threat to Singtel with its landing-party status in Singapore’s only direct transpacific submarine cable, Asia-America Gateway (AAG), as well as a stake in the pan-regional Asia Submarine-cable Express (ASE).

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Private (non-consortium) cables are operated by Telstra, the owner of the C2C-EAC cable network; Tata Communications, which purchased the TyCom Global Network in 2004 and which subsequently expanded the network to include TGN-TIC and TGN-IA; and Bharti, owner of i2i.

Singapore is connected to Indonesia via several smaller cable systems including the Matrix Cable System, Moratelindo’s MIC-1 and B2JS cable systems, PT Telkom’s Batam-Singapore Cable System, PT Indosat’s Jakabare, and PGASCOM’s JSBS. There are also fiber links via the causeway and bridge to Malaysia which interconnect with Telekom Malaysia’s domestic network as well as Time dotCom’s terrestrial Cross-Peninsular Cable System (CPCS) to Thailand.

Seven new cables are planned to land in Singapore. The Asia-Pacific Gateway (APG) project is expected to enter service in 2016. Singtel’s Sea-Me-We-5 project, under development as of year- end 2015, would compete with the Asia-Africa-Europe-1(AAE-1) cable, which will likely connect terrestrially to Singapore via Malaysia. Similarly, the Bay of Bengal Gateway (BBG) project is expected to land in neighboring Malaysia but may include a terrestrial extension to Singapore. Other planned projects include three proposed systems between Singapore and Australia (APX-West, Australia-Singapore Cable, and Trident Subsea Cable), although the developers of each project have implied that market demand will likely only allow one project to actually be built. In January of 2015, Global Cloud Xchange said that it had shortlisted three vendors for the supply of its India Cloud Xchange cable, which it had previously announced in July of 2014 (at that time, the ready-for-service date of the system was mid-2016). The 5,060- kilometer system would link Mumbai and Singapore, with branches to Trivandrum and/or Chennai, and it would comprise four fiber pairs, each supporting 80 wavelengths of 100 Gbps, for a total capacity of 32 Tbps. The cost of the system was estimated to be $200 million, although GCX said that it would invest only $40 million to $45 million, with the remainder provided by partner investors.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 20: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Singapore (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 40 66 105 170 358 622 1,266 1,538 2,295 2,952 3,835 International Corporate Data 4 7 11 18 38 66 135 148 207 291 408 International Switched Voice 4 5 6 7 7 9 10 11 13 15 17 Total International Bandwidth 49 78 121 195 404 696 1,411 1,697 2,515 3,258 4,260 CAGR (2005-2015) 56%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 5,380 7,548 10,590 13,672 17,650 22,787 29,417 37,978 49,029 63,297 81,716 International Corporate Data 573 803 1,127 1,455 1,879 2,426 3,131 4,043 5,219 6,738 8,698 International Switched Voice 19 22 26 29 34 38 44 50 58 67 77 Total International Bandwidth 5,972 8,374 11,743 15,156 19,563 25,250 32,593 42,071 54,306 70,101 90,492 CAGR (2016-2026) 31%

4,500 100,000

4,000 90,000

3,500 80,000 70,000 3,000 60,000 2,500 Voice Voice 50,000

(Gbps) 2,000 (Gbps) Corporate 40,000 Corporate Data 1,500 Data Internet 30,000 Internet 1,000 20,000

500 10,000

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XXII. Country analysis: Sri Lanka

Fixed Line Telephony Market

There were 2.6 million fixed-line subscribers as of year-end 2015.

Mobile Telephony Market

Mobile subscribership totaled 24.4 million as of year-end 2015.

Internet and Broadband Market

Fixed-broadband subscribership was 670,000 as of year-end 2015; total Internet subscribership, including narrowband and mobile, was 3.4 million.

International Internet Bandwidth

International Internet bandwidth was estimated to be 65 Gbps as of year-end 2014.

International Network Connectivity

Sri Lanka’s fifth active submarine cable, Sea-Me-We-5, will enter service in 2016. The final Sea-Me-We-5 consortium consisted of 18 operators: Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Limited (BSCCL), China Mobile International Limited (CMI), China Telecom Global Limited (CTG), China United Network Communications Group Company Limited (China Unicom), Djibouti Telecom SA (Djibouti Telecom), Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company (du), Egypt Telecom (TE), Orange, Myanmar Post and Telecom (MPT), Ooredoo Qatar, PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia International (Telin), Saudi Telecom Company (STC), Singapore Telecommunications Limited (Singtel), Sri Lanka Telecom PLC (SLT), Telekom Malaysia Berhad (TM), Telecom Italia Sparkle (TI Sparkle), Turk Telekom International (TTI) and Trans World Associates Limited (TWA). Sea-Me-We-5 design capacity will be 24 Tbps.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 21: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Sri Lanka (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 1 1 2 3 6 8 19 30 45 65 95 International Corporate Data 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 5 8 11 International Switched Voice 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Total International Bandwidth 1 2 3 4 8 10 22 35 52 75 108 CAGR (2005-2015) 60%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 139 202 295 431 630 919 1,342 1,959 2,860 4,175 6,096 International Corporate Data 17 24 35 52 76 110 161 235 343 501 731 International Switched Voice 3 3 4 5 5 6 8 9 11 13 16 Total International Bandwidth 159 229 334 488 711 1,035 1,511 2,203 3,214 4,689 6,843 CAGR (2016-2026) 46%

120 8,000

7,000 100 6,000 80 5,000 Voice Voice 60 4,000 (Gbps) Corporate (Gbps) Corporate Data 3,000 40 Data Internet Internet 2,000 20 1,000

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XXIII. Country analysis: Tajikistan

Regulation and Government Intervention

As of 2015, Tajikistan remained without an independent telecommunications regulator.

Domestic Network Connectivity

As of 2015, Tajiktelecom’s domestic fiber network was 2.800 kilometers, connecting all rayon centers except one (Gornomacha).

International Internet Bandwidth

Tajikistan’s international bandwidth was 2.5 Gbps as of late-2015.

Sources in Tajikistan indicated in late-2015 that IP transit cost as much as $280 per Mbps per month, with capacity purchased in STM-1 increments priced at approximately $193 per Mbps per month.

International Network Connectivity

Kyrgyz Republic provides the primary path for Tajikistan’s international connectivity. Fiber connectivity to Afghanistan, owned by Babilon-T, has been installed but is not used due to “security concerns.”

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 22: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Tajikistan (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.2 3.8 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 International Switched Voice 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Total International Bandwidth 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.7 4.5 CAGR (2005-2015) 42%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 7 14 30 65 122 230 382 620 984 1,562 2,480 International Corporate Data 1 1 3 6 11 15 22 31 43 60 83 International Switched Voice 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Total International Bandwidth 8 15 32 71 133 246 404 650 1,027 1,622 2,564 CAGR (2016-2026) 78%

5.0 3,000

4.5 2,500 4.0

3.5 2,000 3.0 Voice Voice 2.5 1,500 (Gbps) (Gbps) 2.0 Corporate Corporate Data 1,000 Data Internet 1.5 Internet 1.0 500 0.5

0.0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XXIV. Country analysis: Thailand

Internet and Broadband Market

The National Digital Economy Policy and Plan, covering the period from 2016 to 2020, comprises a key element of the country’s ICT Policy Framework 2020, which seeks to position ICT as “a key driving force in leading Thai people toward knowledge and wisdom and leading society towards equality and sustainable economy.” Among its seven development strategies, the framework calls for universal and secure ICT and broadband infrastructure with the objective of 95 percent broadband network access across the country, as well as 100 Mbps broadband access in all regional hubs by 2020.

According to the Ministry of Information and Communication Technology 7, as of mid-2015 there were 5.9 million fixed broadband subscribers, representing a household penetration rate of 29 percent. The MICT also reported that there were 56.8 million “mobile broadband subscriptions,” although not all of the subscribers were actual Internet users. The ministry estimated total Internet usage at 33 million.

Domestic Network Connectivity

Thailand’s domestic bandwidth was 2.038 Tbps as of year-end 2014 and 3.440 Tbps as of year- end 2015.

International Internet Bandwidth

Thailand’s total international Internet bandwidth was 1.240 Tbps as of year-end 2014, and 2.241 Tbps as of year-end 2015, representing an annual increase of 81 percent.

International Network Connectivity

Communications Authority of Thailand (CAT)’s monopoly over international Internet gateway services was ended in 2006, leading to the creation of five additional international gateway licensees and a major increase in international traffic. As of year-end 2015, JasTel had 550 Gbps of international capacity, True International Gateway had 240 Gbps, TOT had 70 Gbps, and CAT had 50 Gbps.

Four new submarine cables are either being considered or under development. The most advanced project is Asia Africa Europe-1 (AAE-1), which would span 25,000 kilometers; TOT is the Thai signatory to the project’s construction and maintenance agreement. TOT had also been identified as an investor in the competing Sea-Me-We-5 project, which was to have landed in Satun, Thailand; however, sources told Terabit Consulting that as of late-2015 plans for the project’s Thai landing point had been scrapped and TOT was no longer a member of the consortium.

7 The Ministry was restructured to be the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society. 68

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

CAT is the Thai signatory to the construction and maintenance agreement for the proposed Asia- Pacific Gateway (APG) project, which in its most recent incarnation was announced in 2012 and was scheduled to enter service in 2014. As of late-2015, sources could not confirm when the system would enter service.

The 1,516-kilometer Mythic cable, proposed by Campana Group, would connect Thanlyin, Myanmar; Penang, Malaysia; and Satun, Thailand. Representatives of Campana claimed in September of 2015 that it would be the first company after Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications (MPT) to be awarded a submarine facility license by Myanmar authorities. Time dotCom and Loxley would serve as landing parties in Malaysia and Thailand, respectively. The system would have a capacity of 10 Tbps per fiber pair.

The Southeast Asia-Japan Cable (SJC), which connects Japan, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Brunei, and Singapore, entered service in 2013 and includes a submerged branching unit that would allow for expansion to Thailand, however as of 2015 there were no confirmed plans to proceed with such an extension.

A terrestrial link between Mae Sai, Thailand and Tachilek, Myanmar, previously reported but unconfirmed, was indeed in service as of 2015, according to the Ministry of Information and Communication Technology.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 23: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Thailand (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 7 10 22 55 105 180 262 472 725 1,240 2,241 International Corporate Data 1 1 2 6 11 19 28 49 70 136 247 International Switched Voice 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 Total International Bandwidth 8 12 25 62 117 200 290 522 796 1,378 2,489 CAGR (2005-2015) 77%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 3,115 4,299 5,932 8,186 11,297 15,590 21,514 29,690 40,972 56,542 78,027 International Corporate Data 343 516 771 1,146 1,695 2,339 3,227 4,454 6,146 8,481 11,704 International Switched Voice 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 Total International Bandwidth 3,459 4,817 6,706 9,335 12,995 17,932 24,745 34,148 47,123 65,028 89,738 CAGR (2016-2026) 38%

3,000 100,000

90,000 2,500 80,000

70,000 2,000 60,000 Voice Voice 1,500 50,000 (Gbps) (Gbps) Corporate 40,000 Corporate Data 1,000 Data Internet 30,000 Internet 20,000 500 10,000

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XXV. Country analysis: Turkey

Fixed Line Telephony Market

There were 11.5 million fixed-line subscribers as of year-end 2015.

Mobile Telephony Market

Mobile subscribership totaled 73.6 million as of year-end 2015.

Internet and Broadband Market

As of year-end 2015, fixed broadband subscribers totaled 9.5 million, of which 7.1 million used DSL, 1.3 million used fiber, and 0.7 million used cable modems. There were 39.1 million mobile broadband subscriptions.

Domestic Network Connectivity

Total fiber deployment was 268,120 kilometers, of which Turk Telecom operated 211,528 kilometers. The Turk Telecom backbone spanned 124,349 kilometers.

In 2015 SOCAR Turkey, the Turkish subsidiary of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic, began installing an 800-kilometer fiber optic cable along the right-of-way of the Trans- Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP). The cable, which is expected to be activated in 2016, will connect Ardahan, Turkey, on the Georgian border, to Edirne, on the border with Greece. The fiber will provide connectivity to 20 cities in Turkey: Ardahan, Kars, Erzurum, Ercincan, Bayburt, Gumushane, Giresun, Sivas, Yozgat, Kirsehir, Kirikkale, Ankara, Eskisheir, Bilecik, Kutahya, Bursa, Balikesir, Canakkale, Tekirdag, and Edirne. An operator’s license was awarded to SOCAR Turkey’s subsidiary Fiber Optik A.S. in July of 2014.

International Internet Bandwidth

Turkey’s international Internet bandwidth was estimated to be more than 4 Tbps as of year-end 2015. IP transit pricing for large volumes was as low as $2 per Mbps per month as of 2015.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 24: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Turkey (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 30 45 100 200 325 600 1,000 1,500 2,300 2,900 4,234 International Corporate Data 7 10 23 46 75 138 230 345 529 667 974 International Switched Voice 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 14 Total International Bandwidth 40 58 127 250 405 744 1,237 1,853 2,839 3,579 5,222 CAGR (2005-2015) 63%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 6,182 9,025 13,177 19,238 28,088 41,008 59,872 87,413 127,622 186,327 272,035 International Corporate Data 1,422 2,076 3,031 4,425 6,460 9,432 13,770 20,105 29,353 42,855 62,568 International Switched Voice 16 19 23 27 32 38 44 52 62 74 88 Total International Bandwidth 7,620 11,120 16,231 23,690 34,580 50,478 73,686 107,57 0 157,0 37 229,256 334,69 1 CAGR (2016-2026) 46 %

3,000.0 100,000

90,000 2,500.0 80,000

70,000 2,000.0 60,000 Voice Voice 1,500.0 50,000 (Gbps) (Gbps) Corporate 40,000 Corporate Data 1,000.0 Data Internet 30,000 Internet 20,000 500.0 10,000

0.0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XXVI. Country analysis: Turkmenistan

International Internet Bandwidth

Turkmenistan’s international Internet bandwidth was estimated to be approximately 2.5 Gbps as of year-end 2015.

International Network Connectivity

Turkmenistan’s first telecommunications satellite, TurkmenAlem, was launched in May of 2015, serving primarily to carry television broadcast signals .

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 25: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Turkmenistan (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 International Switched Voice 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Total International Bandwidth 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.4 CAGR (2005-2015) 37%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 3 7 20 51 102 204 347 520 780 1,170 1,756 International Corporate Data 0.3 1 2 5 10 20 35 52 78 117 176 International Switched Voice 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Total International Bandwidth 4 8 23 56 112 225 382 572 859 1,288 1,932 CAGR (2016-2026) 86%

3.0 2,500

2.5 2,000

2.0 1,500 Voice Voice 1.5 (Gbps) (Gbps) Corporate 1,000 Corporate Data 1.0 Data Internet Internet 500 0.5

0.0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XXVII. Country analysis: Uzbekistan

Regulation and Government Intervention

The Ministry for Development of Information Technologies and Communications of the Republic of Uzbekistan was created by presidential decree in February of 2015.

International Internet Bandwidth

The Ministry of Development of Information Technologies and Communications of Uzbekistan reported that Uzbekistan’s international Internet bandwidth was 16.64 Gbps as of year-end 2014 and 19.25 Gbps as of mid-2015. Pricing of IP transit was $233 per Mbps per month as of May, 2015.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 26: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Uzbekistan (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.6 4.8 7.8 11.3 16.6 26.4 International Corporate Data 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.6 International Switched Voice 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 Total International Bandwidth 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.1 3.7 6.3 9.7 13.8 19.8 30.7 CAGR (2005-2015) 50%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 44 65 97 175 262 367 550 770 1,078 1,509 2,112 International Corporate Data 4 7 12 23 39 66 99 139 194 272 380 International Switched Voice 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.6 6.4 7.4 Total International Bandwidth 50 74 111 200 304 436 653 913 1,277 1,787 2,500 CAGR (2016-2026) 48%

35 3,000

30 2,500

25 2,000 20 Voice Voice 1,500 (Gbps) 15 Corporate (Gbps) Corporate Data 1,000 Data Internet 10 Internet

500 5

0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

XXVIII. Country analysis: Vietnam

International Internet Bandwidth

Vietnam’s international Internet bandwidth was estimated to be 920 Gbps as of year-end 2014. The latest official data placed the figure at 640 Gbps as of 2013 and 350 Gbps as of 2012.

International Network Connectivity

Since late-2013, sources have reported that the Asia America Gateway (AAG) system has suffered at least six major outages, with most problems occurring on the Singapore-to-Hong Kong segments. Internet users in Vietnam, which is greatly dependent on the cable, had reported the Internet to be virtually unusable during several of the AAG outages.

Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in the ESCAP Region

Figure 27: Historical and Forecasted International Bandwidth in Vietnam (Gbps), 2005-2026

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 International Internet 4 7 13 50 90 134 311 350 640 900 1,150 International Corporate Data 0 1 1 5 9 14 32 37 52 75 106 International Switched Voice 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Total International Bandwidth 4 8 14 56 99 149 344 388 694 976 1,258 CAGR (2005-2015) 76%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 International Internet 1,600 2,320 3,364 4,878 7,073 10,256 14,871 21,562 31,265 45,335 65,736 International Corporate Data 150 212 299 422 596 841 1,188 1,544 4,690 6,800 9,860 International Switched Voice 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 Total International Bandwidth 1,751 2,533 3,665 5,302 7,671 11,099 16,061 23,110 35,959 52,140 75,601 CAGR (2016-2026) 46%

1,400.0 80,000

1,200.0 70,000

60,000 1,000.0 50,000 800.0 Voice Voice 40,000 (Gbps) 600.0 Corporate (Gbps) Corporate 30,000 Data Data Internet 400.0 Internet 20,000

200.0 10,000

0.0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026