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הטכניון – מכון טכנולוגי לישראל Technion – Israel Institute of Technology Library ספריות הטכניון The Technion Libraries Central בית הספר ללימודי מוסמכים ע"ש ארווין וג'ואן ג'ייקובס Irwin and Joan Jacobs Graduate School Elyachar © All rights reserved This work, in whole or in part, may not be copied (in any media), printed, translated, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted via the internet or other electronic means, except for "fair use" of brief quotations for academic instruction, criticism, or research purposes only. Commercial use of this material is completely prohibited. Technology, of © כל הזכויות שמורות אין להעתיק (במדיה כלשהי), להדפיס, לתרגם, לאחסן במאגר מידע, להפיץ באינטרנט, חיבור זה או כל חלק ממנו, למעט "שימוש הוגן " בקטעים קצרים מן החיבור למטרות לימוד, הוראה, ביק רו ת או מחקר. שימוש מסחרי בחומר הכלול בחיבור זה אסור בהחלט. Institute Israel - Technion © Library Central Mapping fire risk using multiple simulations of fire behavior Elyachar Technology, of Faris Jahshan Institute Israel - Technion © Library Mapping fire risk Central using multiple simulations of fire behavior Research Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements Elyachar for the Degree of Master of Science in Mapping and Geoinformation Faris Jahshan Submitted to the Senate of the Technion --- Israel Institute of Technology Technology, of Kislev 5771 Haifa November 2010 Institute Israel - Technion © Library Central The research was done under the supervision of Prof. Maxim Shoshany and Prof. Yohay Carmel in the Department of Civil Engineering. Elyachar I thank Prof. Maxim Shoshany and Prof. Yohay Carmel for their guidance and help during all stages of research. I thank Dr. Shlomit Paz and the late Gil Sapir for the appreciated help. Technology, of I also would like to thank my parents Mona and Johny, my sisters Duaa and Reem for their support. The generous financial help of the Technion Graduate School is Institute gratefully acknowledged. Israel - Technion © Library Central Elyachar Dedicated to Mona and Johny Technology, of Institute Israel - Technion © Table of Content Library Abstract............................................................................................................................... 1 List of Symbols .................................................................................................................... 3 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 4 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Study area ................................................................................................................. 6 Central 1.3 Mapping fire risk ....................................................................................................... 8 1.3.1 Literature review................................................................................................ 8 1.3.2 Fire risk assessment ........................................................................................... 9 1.4 Fire behavior modeling ........................................................................................... 11 1.4.1 The fire spread component ............................................................................. 12 1.4.2 GIS and fire spread simulation techniques...................................................... 13 1.4.3 FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator - Model.............................................................. 14 Elyachar 1.4.3.1 FARSTIE Validation........................................................................................ 19 2 Research Objective ........................................................................................................ 21 3 Methods......................................................................................................................... 22 3.1 The Simulation Model............................................................................................. 22 3.2 Simulation and Monte Carlo method ..................................................................... 23 3.3 Bootstrapping ......................................................................................................... 25 3.4 Simulation framework ............................................................................................ 28 3.4.1 Simulation model and historic fires................................................................. 30 3.4.2 Sensitivity Analysis........................................................................................... 30 Technology, 3.5 Model parameters .................................................................................................. 32 3.5.1 Landscape Data................................................................................................ 32 of 3.5.2 Fuel models...................................................................................................... 37 3.5.3 Climatic Data.................................................................................................... 40 3.5.4 Ignition risk....................................................................................................... 41 3.5.5 Time Data......................................................................................................... 42 4 Results............................................................................................................................ 45 4.1 Compliance to historic fires .................................................................................... 48 Institute 4.2 Bootstrapping ......................................................................................................... 49 4.3 Sensitivity analysis .................................................................................................. 51 5 Discussion....................................................................................................................... 56 6 Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 58 7 Bibliography ................................................................................................................... 59 Israel 8 Appendix ........................................................................................................................ 64 - Log file – fire events (Sample)................................................................................... 64 Java Code used to automate model ......................................................................... 65 MATLAB code used for bootstrapping...................................................................... 68 Technion © List of Figures Library Figure 1 - 2D Fire Shape / Wind Fuel ................................................................................ 15 Figure 2 - Fire propagation ............................................................................................... 19 Figure 3 – Model Diagram................................................................................................. 29 Figue 4 – Causes of fire, KKL fire database (1988-2005) .................................................. 41 Figure 5 - Percentage of fuel models at different risk classes ……………………………………… 46 Central Figure 6 - Fire area correspondence to risk category (%)................................................. 48 Figure 7 - Monte Carlo estimation vs. Bootstrapping estimation .................................... 49 Figure 8 - RMSD values ..................................................................................................... 51 List of Maps Map 1 - Location of Mount Carmel..................................................................................... 6 Elyachar Map 2 – Mount Carmel aerial view .................................................................................... 7 Map 3 – Historical documented fires boundaries ............................................................ 31 Map 4 – Digital elevation model....................................................................................... 33 Map 5 - Aspect .................................................................................................................. 34 Map 6 - Slope .................................................................................................................... 35 Map 7 – Canopy cover ...................................................................................................... 36 Map 8 – Fuel models......................................................................................................... 39 Map 9 – Human activity zone ........................................................................................... 43 Map 10 – Ignition points distribution ............................................................................... 44 Map 11 – Final risk map.................................................................................................... 47 Technology, Map 12 – Bias spatial distribution .................................................................................... 50 of Map 13 – Flat DEM risk map............................................................................................. 52 Map 14 – No wind risk map.............................................................................................. 53 Map 15 – Unique fuel