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Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Flooding in Lokoja (1999-2018), Kogi State Nigeria

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Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Flooding in Lokoja (1999-2018), Kogi State Nigeria International Journal of Scientific Research in ___________________________ Research Paper . Multidisciplinary Studies E-ISSN: 2454-9312 Vol.6, Issue.2, pp.58-72, February (2020) P-ISSN: 2454-6143 Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Flooding In Lokoja (1999-2018), Kogi State Nigeria Jimoh U.U.1, Salami H.2* 1,2Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan, Nigeria *Corresponding author: [email protected] Available online at: www.isroset.org Received: 08/Feb/2020, Accepted: 14/Feb/2020, Online: 28/Feb/2020 Abstract- This study is design to undertake a spatio-temporal analysis of flooding from 1999 to 2018 in Lokoja, Kogi state Nigeria. Longitudinal research design was adopted for the study in which both primary and secondary data were sourced. A multi-stage sampling technique was utilized. The spatial data includes eight sets of satellite imageries of Lokoja, comprising of four sets of Landsat imageries captured during the dry season and another four set captured in wet season. The imageries for year 1999, 2009, 2012, and 2018 of American Land-sat series Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhance Thematic Mapper (ETM) were acquired. All the satellite imageries were obtained from online resource of United State Global Land Cover Facilities (US GLCF). Also, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) of Digital Elevation Model of Lokoja was acquired from Global vision (Glovis) section of United State Global Land Cover Facilities. Trend of land inundated from year 1999 to 2018, was generated. Qualitative data (FGD) was conducted to complement the study and was content analyzed. The result revealed that, in the year 1999, there was no recorded or reported cases of flooding, and this was associated with the level of development then. The year 1999 water was recorded to discharge at 23090 cummecs with a water level of 10.36. There was no damage to built-up area as also confirmed by the LULC analysis, but the water discharged only boosted agricultural yield that year. The LULC analysis shows that in the year 2012, due to irregular rainfall witnessed coupled with release of water from dam up stream of the river, there was water discharge of 30676 cummecs with a water level of 12.85 (NIWA, 2018). As such, the year 2012 inundated highest percentage of land (24.48km2), compared with year 2018 (19.24km2) and year 2009 (13.09km2). Effects of flooding were discovered to have made people relocated to different places while affected people got financial aids from friends and relatives. Conclusively, land inundated in Lokoja is expected to increase as climate change increases. This is against the backdrop of rapid rate of urbanization on limited land space which is also constrained by Mount Patti to the west and river to the east. Keywords: Satellite Data, Geospatial Mapping, Flood Disasters and Risk, Vulnerability, Kogi State I. INTRODUCTION The frequency and intensity of hazards are increasing globally. Averagely, 231 million people annually, are affected by one natural hazard or the other (EM-DAT, 2012). Flooding has contributed majorly to loss of life and economic loss (IPCC, 2012). And it expected that flooding would increase in both intensity and frequency in the near future. Urbanization is the major contributor to flooding in developing countries, by restricting flood waters movement. In the urban settlement, major part of the ground surface are covered by pavements, roofs and tarred road. As such, obstruct the pervious part of the ground and drains are constructed that make water to flow faster. Also, as more people are crowded in the urban space, the impact of flood is intensified. As a result, a little rain storm could produce flows in rivers which are higher than natural ones, due to the hard surface and drainages (Action Aid, 2006). Even, floods that occurs in this urban spaces, could setback development by years. In Nigeria two major flood event was recorded in year 2012; which are the Ladgo Dam Flood and Niger-Benue Flood (Lokoja and Rivers Benue-Niger adjoining States). Water released from dam Ladgo in Cameroon into River Benue flood plain, in addition to global warming effects, was largely responsible for the 2012 flooding in Nigeria. There by pushing most communities across the country over there bank. Also, similar event was recorded in September, 2018, destroying about 1.8-Billion-naira worth of properties around Kogi State (NEMA, 2018). There are, however numbers of tested techniques There are number of tested techniques that could be used singly or in combination to map flood hazards and risk, which include information on historical floods, soil maps, aerial photographs, hydrological modeling of the major rivers, use of national digital terrain model and water levels, and satellite imagery (Ojigi, 2010). A typical example is the study of conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects model (CLUE-s) and HEC-HMS software to investigate the potential impacts of future land use changes on storm runoff generation under the design storm carried out by Chen et al (2009). Also, an assess the effect of past land use changes to predict the effect of future land use scenarios on the flood regime of Golestan Watershed, Iran, Saghafin et. al. (2008), who integrated various tools; © 2020, IJSRMS All Rights Reserved 58 Int. J. Sci. Res. in Multidisciplinary Studies Vol.6, Issue.2, Feb 2020 hydrologic models, GIS and remotely sensed data. According Li and Huang (2002), there stated that globally geospatial technologies have been used effectively in respects of flood and water logging disaster monitoring and evaluation, water soil corrosion and soil protection, resources and water environment investigation, river and reservoir sedimentation monitoring, river/lake and river mouth evolvement investigation as well as soil moisture and drought condition monitoring. In addition, integration of synthetic aperture radar data and digital terrain model as a rapid flood hazards and risk mapping technique for emergency management was identified by Ojigi and Shaba (2012), said that it offered in-situ inundated status and terrain factor for rescue and relief operations. As such this study seeks to undertake a spatio-temporal analysis of flooding from 1999 to 2018, in Lokoja, Kogi State Nigeria. II. STUDY AREA Lokoja is located between latitude 7o 45’ N, 7o 51’N of the equator and longitude 6o 41’ E 6o 45’E of the Greenwich Meridian. It is bounded in the west by the River Niger at an altitude of 45-125metres above sea level. It is also surrounded by pockets of hills of which the highest in the Patti ridge (Figure1). The flat area is generally undulating at an altitude of 107metres below sea level. The study area is categorized to be within the guinea savannah belt, even though what we really have now is derived savannah, only resistant vegetation still remains dominant due to anthropogenic activities of bush clearing, burning and lumbering. Most of area consists of secondary regrowth. The climate, described as the tropical wet and dry climate of the Koppen’s classification, is characterized by wet and dry season. Raining season begins in May and ends in October, with an average annual rainfall of about 1000mm and a relative humidity at 60%. An average maximum day time temperature of 37.9 0C, is recorded between December and April. Figure 1: Map of Study area in the context of Kogi State, Nigeria Source: Kogi State Town Planning Development Board III. LITERATURE In order to understand the trend over time in space of flooding, the effects of land use cannot be ruled out. Land use is primarily a function of urbanization in such locality. There is a wealth of information on the effect of urbanization on the hydrologic processes. As identified by Leopold (1968), the percentage of impervious area (type of land use), provision for storm sewerage and characteristics of the channel is a principal factors that govern the flow regime in a river. Also, Hollis (1975) after synthesizing an array of studies, he came to a conclusion that small and frequent floods are increased with shorter recurrence. In addition, urbanization of flood plain areas increases the peak discharge, and also increase the volume of runoff decrease the time to peak and increase the volume of runoff (Saghafian et al 2008). Observation of urban development in Taiwan’s Wu–Tu watershed from the perspective of urban hydrology was conducted by Cheng and Wang (2002). Their study revealed that 30 years of urbanization within Wu–Tu, watershed had increased the flow peak by 27%. The spatial and temporal changes of land use/land cover can be assessed using satellite imageries (Kadiogullari and Baskent 2008; Geymen and Baz 2008; Solin et al 2011). Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote sensing (RS) techniques have been applied in recent times and are recognized as the most powerful and effective tools for detecting flood mapping, flood risk assessment and land-use change, (Sarma 1999; Islam and Sado 2000; Sanyal and Lu 2004; Dewan et al 2007). © 2020, IJSRMS All Rights Reserved 59 Int. J. Sci. Res. in Multidisciplinary Studies Vol.6, Issue.2, Feb 2020 A study on spatio-temporal analysis of areas vulnerable to flood in Ibaji local government area, Kogi state, carried out by Mohammed (2018), showed that the flood trend is increasing from the riverine areas to the hinterland. He recommended that there is great need for further research on mitigate measures so that the menace of flooding can be minimized. Felix et. al (2013), in their research on geospatial techniques for the assessment and analysis of flood risk along the Niger-Benue basin emphasized the positive relevance of geospatial methods in mitigating and monitoring the effect of flooding along the Niger-Benue basin. Yu et al (2003) examined the influence of land use changes on runoff using a rainfall–runoff model and design hyetographs with various return periods in Ta-Chao basin, Taiwan.
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