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IUFRO W Orld Series Volume 38 IUFRO World Series Volume 38 Volume Series World IUFRO Forest and Forest Water on a Changing Planet: on a Changing Planet: Water Vulnerability, Vulnerability, Forest and Water on a Changing Adaptation and Governance Opportunities and Governance Adaptation Planet: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Governance Opportunities A Global Assessment Report Editors: Irena F. Creed and Meine van Noordwijk IUFRO World Series Vol. 38 Forest and Water on a Changing Planet: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Governance Opportunities A Global Assessment Report Editors: Irena F. Creed and Meine van Noordwijk Funding support for this publication was provided by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, the United States Forest Service, the Austrian Federal Ministry of Sustainability and Tourism and the World Bank Group/PROFOR. The views expressed within this publication do not necessarily reflect official policy of the governments represented by these institutions/agencies or the institutions to whom the authors are affiliated. Publisher: International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) Recommended catalogue entry: Irena F. Creed and Meine van Noordwijk (eds.), 2018. Forest and Water on a Changing Planet: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Governance Opportunities. A Global Assessment Report. IUFRO World Series Volume 38. Vienna. 192 p. ISBN 978-3-902762-95-5 ISSN 1016-3263 Published by: International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) Available from: IUFRO Headquarters Secretariat Marxergasse 2 1030 Vienna Austria Tel: +43-1-877-0151-0 E-mail: [email protected] www.iufro.org Language and content editor: Stephanie Mansourian Layout: Schrägstrich Kommunikationsdesign Cover photographs: iStock: Joel Carillet, Sande Murunga/CIFOR, Alexander Buck/IUFRO Printed in Austria by Eigner Druck, Tullner Straße 311, 3040 Neulengbach Preface ince its establishment in the year 2007, the Global Forest Expert Panels (GFEP) initiative of the Collaborative Partnership on Forests (CPF) has been effectively linking scientific knowledge with political decision-making on Sforests. GFEP responds directly to key forest-related policy questions by consolidating available scientific knowl- edge and expertise on these questions at a global level. It provides decision-makers with the most relevant, objective and accurate information, and thus makes an essential contribution to increasing the quality and effectiveness of international forest governance. This report entitled “Forest and Water on a Changing Planet: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Governance Opportunities” presents the outcomes of the sixth global scientific assessment undertaken in the framework of GFEP. All assessment reports are prepared by internationally recognised scientists from a variety of biophysical and social science disciplines. The publications are presented to stakeholders across relevant international policy fora. In this way, GFEP supports a more coherent policy dialogue about the role of forests in addressing the broader environmental, social and economic challenges reflected in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The current report reflects the importance of integrated action towards ensuring access to water for all and sustaining life on land. The provision of clean water is the most basic ecosystem service necessary for life on earth. Yet, growing demand for water caused by an increasing human population, combined with adverse effects of climate change, are cre- ating unprecedented challenges for sustainable development. Forests influence water resources in multiple ways, and at multiple levels. Whereas the interplay between forests and climate is regularly considered in decision-making, that between water and forests remains under-represented. Today, the fact that the world has mobilised around the seventeen SDGs, all of which have a connection to water, provides a crucial argument for paying more attention to the forest-water link. While the international community agreed the SDG framework based on moral principles, science is essential for de- veloping the policies and practices required for achieving the related targets. Scientific reports like the one in hand are important tools for supporting policymakers and stakeholders in their ambition to ensure sustainable development and to advance the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda. I would like to thank the Co-Chairs of the Global Forest Expert Panel on Forests and Water, Irena F. Creed and Meine van Noordwijk, GFEP Coordinator Christoph Wildburger, GFEP Editor Stephanie Mansourian, and GFEP Project Manager Andre Purret for their excellent work in guiding the assessment process and in leading the development of this publica- tion. It is my sincere hope that those with a responsibility for implementing the SDGs at all levels will find this report, and its accompanying policy brief, a useful source of information and inspiration. Alexander Buck IUFRO Executive Director 5 Acknowledgements This publication is the product of the collaborative work of scientific experts in the framework of the Global Forest Ex- pert Panels (GFEP) assessment on Forests and Water, who served in different capacities as panel members and authors. We express our sincere gratitude to all of them: David Aldred, Emma Archer, Aurelia Baca, Aida Bargués Tobella, Kevin Bishop, Juan A. Blanco, Leendert A. (Sampurno) Bruijnzeel, Marius Claassen, Peter Duinker, David Ellison, David Foster, Solomon G. Gebrehiwot, Aster Gebrekirstos, Krysta Giles-Hansen, Mark Gush, Dipak Gyawali, Andrew Hacket-Pain, Richard J. Harper, Lorren K. Haywood, Ulrik Ilstedt, Julia A. Jones, Qiang Li, Yingchun Liao, Anders Malmer, Julia Martin-Ortega, Steven G. McNulty, Aditi Mukherji, Daniel Murdiyarso, Hosea Mwangi, Chloé Orland, Paola Ovando Pol, Maureen G. Reed, James P. Robson, Christopher Schulz, Jacqueline Serran, James Steenberg, Caroline A. Sullivan, Dominique (Nico) Trick, Meine van Noordwijk, Bhaskar Vira, Yi Wang, Xiaohua (Adam) Wei, Sarah J. Wilson, Fiona Worthy, Jianchu Xu and Mingfang Zhang. Without their efforts and commitments, the preparation of this publication would not have been possible. We are also grateful to the institutions and organisations to which the authors are affiliated for enabling them to contribute their expertise to this assessment. At the same time, we wish to note that the views expressed within this publication do not necessarily reflect official policy of these institutions and organisations. We acknowledge, and also sincerely thank, the reviewers of the report whose comments have greatly improved the qual- ity of this publication: Kirsty Blackstock, Jean-Michel Carnus, Antonio del Campo, Robert C. Ferrier, Vincent Gitz, Shirong Liu, Constance L. McDermott, Jeffrey J. McDonnell, Elisabeth Mullin Bernhardt, Esther Mwangi, Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Ina Porras, Nadeem W. Shah, Elaine Springgay, James M. Vose and Markus Weiler. We also gratefully acknowledge the generous financial and in-kind support provided by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, the United States Forest Service, the World Bank Group/PROFOR, and the Austrian Federal Ministry of Sustainability and Tourism. Our special thanks go to the IUFRO Secretariat for providing indispensable administrative and technical support. Fur- thermore, we would like to thank the member organisations of the Collaborative Partnership on Forests (CPF) for provid- ing their in-kind contributions and overall guidance to the assessment. We are particularly grateful also to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Rome, Italy), the University of Cambridge (United Kingdom) and the University of Leeds (United Kingdom) for hosting expert meetings. Irena F. Creed Meine van Noordwijk Co-Chair Co-Chair Stephanie Mansourian Christoph Wildburger Andre Purret Content Editor GFEP Coordinator GFEP Project Manager 7 Contents Preface 5 Acknowledgements 7 Acronyms, Units and Symbols 10 1 Forests, Trees and W ater on a Changing Planet: A Contemporary Scientific Perspective 13 Coordinating lead authors: Irena F. Creed and Meine van Noordwijk 2 Climate-Forest-Water-People Relations: Seven System Delineations 27 Coordinating lead authors: Meine van Noordwijk, Irena F. Creed, Julia A. Jones and Xiaohua (Adam) Wei Lead authors: Mark Gush, Juan A. Blanco, Caroline A. Sullivan, Kevin Bishop, Daniel Murdiyarso, Jianchu Xu, Marius Claassen, Steven G. McNulty and David Ellison Contributing authors: Anders Malmer, Leendert A. (Sampurno) Bruijnzeel, Richard J. Harper, Hosea Mwangi, Andrew Hacket-Pain and Chloé Orland 3 Determinants of the Forest-Water Relationship 61 Coordinating lead authors: Steven G. McNulty and Emma Archer Lead authors: Mark Gush, Meine van Noordwijk, David Ellison, Juan A. Blanco, Jianchu Xu, Kevin Bishop, Xiaohua (Adam) Wei, Bhaskar Vira, Irena F. Creed and Aditi Mukherji Contributing authors: Aurelia Baca, Jacqueline Serran, Richard J. Harper, David Aldred and Caroline A. Sullivan 4 Forest Landscape Hydrology in a ‘New Normal’ Era of Climate and Land Use Change 81 Coordinating lead authors: Julia A. Jones and Xiaohua (Adam) Wei Lead authors: Meine van Noordwijk, Irena F. Creed, Mark Gush, David Ellison, Juan A. Blanco, Kevin Bishop, Steven G. McNulty and Emma Archer Contributing authors: Aida Bargués Tobella, Leendert A. (Sampurno) Bruijnzeel, Peter Duinker, David Foster, Aster Ge- brekirstos, Krysta Giles-Hansen, Andrew Hacket-Pain, Richard J. Harper, Ulrik Ilstedt, Qiang Li, Yingchun Liao, Anders Malmer, Hosea Mwangi, Chloé Orland, James Steenberg, Yi
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