Single Vote Proportional Proposal for a New Election System for Canada

by Rick Ingram

Canada’s current election system is based on 338 electoral districts (more commonly known as ridings) with the elected candidate for each riding being the one who receives the most votes; this system is known as first-past-the-post.

This document outlines an alternative system called Single Vote Proportional. It is a hybrid with characteristics of first-past-the-post, single transferable vote and mixed-member proportional.

All election systems have advantages and disadvantages. Proponents of electoral reform (including this author) find the disadvantages of first-past-the-post to be so overwhelming that there is an absolute need to introduce a replacement system. The problem has been finding a replacement system whose own disadvantages have not generated strong enough opposition to leave us with the status quo.

Single Vote Proportional addresses the primary disadvantages of the 3 other main election systems. The significant advantages of Single Vote Proportional far outweigh its own disadvantages and make it a viable alternative to the clearly broken current system of first-past-the-post.

Single Vote: One voter -> one vote -> one candidate For voters, no change from the current ballot or process

Local Representation: 90% of the MPs are riding or regional representatives Every riding has a Riding Seat MP or a Regional Seat MP Only 10% of the seats are for national Balancing Seat MPs

Inclusive: Every vote counts - and will be considered until the last seat is assigned First at the Riding level, then at the Regional level, and finally for national Balancing Seats

Proportional: Provides an equitable seat distribution Maximum deviation for any party from actual proportional seat share: 2015 – 0.3% (actual election deviation - 14.9%), 2011 – 0.8% (14.3%) 2008 – 1.8% (8.7%), 2006 – 0.2% (8.1%), 2004 – 1.3% (9.5%)

Discussion of Main Election Systems

Single Single Mixed- First-Past- System Characteristic Vote Transferable Member the-Post Proportional Vote Proportional

Ballot complexity simple simple complex moderate

Voting system complexity moderate simple complex moderate

Ratio of local seats to balancing seats 90 : 10 100 : 0 100 : 0 50 : 50

moderate moderate Degree of inclusivity high low 1st choice - med. ridings - low any choice - high balancing - high

Ratio of voter selected MPs to 100 : 0 100 : 0 100 : 0 50 : 50 MPs appointed by political parties

National proportional balance yes no moderate yes based on voters’ first choice of party

First-Past-the-Post

Overview

First-past-the-post is the current system used in Canada federally and in all provinces. The essentials of the system are:

the country is divided into electoral districts (ridings)

one Member of Parliament is selected from each riding

constituents of the riding vote for the candidate of their choice (one only) within the riding

in each of the ridings, the candidate that receives the most votes wins the seat for the riding

Advantages

Simple Ballot Each eligible Canadian voter is entitled to a single, simple vote to be cast for the candidate of their choice in their riding.

Simple Vote Counting Vote counting is simply the summing of all votes for specific candidates, first at the polling station and then summing the polling stations for riding counts.

High Local Representation As there is a one to one relationship between Members of Parliament and ridings, this system provides the highest possible degree of local representation.

Disadvantages

Non-proportional Although mathematically possible to have the distribution of seats closely match the popular vote, it is highly unlikely. Review of past elections shows a consistent tendency for a large imbalance, ranging from 8.7% – 14.9% maximum deviation for any party in the past 5 elections.

Non-representative at the local level As the only requirement is for a candidate to have the most votes in a riding to win, there is a high risk that a candidate will win a riding with a low percentage of the riding vote.

Analysis of the 2015 election data shows that seats were won with a range of 28.64 - 81.8% of the riding vote. Further, only 48 of 338 seats were won with a super-majority of 60% or higher, and 206 ridings were won with less than 50% of the riding vote.

Non-representative at the national level The above disadvantages can lead to a party winning a majority government (and hence having 100% of power) with less than 50% of the popular vote. Since World War 1 we have had 17 majority federal governments in Canada, in only 4 of those did the winning party have greater than 50% of the popular vote.

In fact, with first-past-the-post, it is possible for a party to have a majority government while another party has a larger share of the popular vote.

Non-inclusive With first-past-the-post all votes not cast for the winning candidate in a riding are discarded. This leads to two issues. First, frustration felt by supporters of non-winning candidates who feel that their vote was wasted. Second, when there is a clear preferred candidate in a riding then supporters of other parties can be discouraged from voting, feeling that their time would be wasted casting a useless vote.

Single Transferable Vote

Overview

The essentials of the Single Transferable Vote system are:

the country is divided into regions

each region is allocated some number of Members of Parliament; each party is allowed to run one candidate for each available seat in the region

constituents of the region cast a ballot on which they rank their favourite candidates; the number they are allowed to rank is dependent on country specific STV implementation

the number of votes required to win a seat is region dependent and based on the number of seats in the region; if there are 3 seats then ¼ + 1 of the region votes are needed, if 5 seats are available then 1/6 + 1, if 9 are available then 1/10 + 1, etc.

all candidates with the required number of votes are awarded a seat; their vote count is reduced by the required votes; any excess votes are distributed proportionately to the next preferred candidate; if this transfer places any new candidates over the required number of votes then they are awarded a seat and their excess votes distributed

when excess redistribution fails to bring any candidates over the required count, then the votes from the candidate with the least votes are redistributed to their next choice

this cycle is continued until all seats are assigned

Advantages

High Local Representation Although not as high as first-past-the-post, as each region in Single Transferable Vote elects a limited number of Members of Parliament, this system provides an extremely high degree of local representation.

Somewhat Inclusive Voters for parties that receive a small portion of the region vote will have that vote of first choice discarded and in that sense Single Transferable Vote is non-inclusive.

However, the ranked ballot process generally allows voters to rank their preference for about 6 of the candidates in the region. It may be the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th ranked candidate that the vote is applied to a candidate who may actually win a seat. In this sense Single Transferable Vote is somewhat inclusive.

Some proportional balance improvement Single Transferable Vote achieves an improvement in first choice proportional balance over first- past-the-post but the extent is limited by the number of MPs in a region. As this is typically restricted to about 3, then seats selected with first choices only would see proportional balance for the Liberals and Conservatives improve, for the NDP it would improve somewhat, for the BQ they are as likely to see a drop or an increase as well as an increased potential for an imbalance, and for the Green Party and all smaller parties their proportional under-representation would persist.

Disadvantages

Complex Ballot STV has a more complex voting process in which voters must make multiple, ranked selections.

Complex Vote Tabulating In every riding, every vote must be recorded for multiple priority votes. Errors in which candidates were selected and/or the order of selection can occur. Contrast this to the current simplicity of recording a single vote for each voter, in which errors already occur.

Complex New Voting System for Voters to Understand The concept of redistribution of votes based on proportion of next preference can be difficult to explain, and for many it can be difficult to grasp. Further complicating is the fact that redistribution occurs with both excess votes as well as from the candidate with least votes when no candidate has sufficient votes.

Mixed-Member Proportional

Overview

The essentials of the Mixed-Member Proportional system are:

the country is divided into ridings

constituents of the ridings are provided a two section ballot; the first section is to select the candidate of their choice in their riding, and the second is to specify the party of their preference for seat balancing

the seats in the ridings are assigned using the first-past-the-post system

there is an equal number of balancing seats to ridings seats

based on the specified seat distribution among parties from the second part of the ballot, and the actual distribution from the riding seats, balancing seats are awarded one at a time to the party that is furthest from the specified seat share

this is repeated until no balancing seats remain

Advantages

Relatively Simple Ballot Voters have to make two choices. The first is for the candidate of their choice for their riding, and the second is for the party of their choice for seat balancing.

First Choice Proportional This system achieves a high degree of proportional seat balancing based on the voters’ first (and only) choice for party.

Disadvantages

Low Local Representation 50% of the seats are assigned as balancing seats - only 50% are selected by votes at the local level.

Party Selection of Balancing MPs 50% of the MPs are selected from lists provided by the parties for Balancing Seats with no voter input.

Proposed System: Single Vote Proportional

This section provides an introduction to the Single Vote Proportional voting system. Greater detail is provided in the remainder of the document.

Two key relationships used in the Single Vote Proportional system are:

Average Votes per Seat

This is the total number of votes cast in the election divided by the number of seats. This value is used to decrease a party’s vote count after successfully winning a Riding Seat or a Regional Seat prior to next calculations.

Riding Proportion This is the percentage of the riding vote that a particular candidate received. This value is used to prioritize candidates for assigning Regional Seats and Balancing Seats.

Essentials of the Single Vote Proportional system:

the country is divided into ridings

one Constituency Seat is associated with each riding

constituents of the riding vote for the candidate of their choice (one only) within the riding

if a candidate receives 60% or more of the vote in the riding then they win the Riding Seat, otherwise the Constituency Seat will be awarded as a Regional Seat

ridings are grouped together into Regions, each Region consisting of 3 ridings (there are exceptions)

all votes that did not elect a Riding Seat MP are considered at the regional level by adding the votes for the ridings within the Region and then subtracting the Average Votes per Seat for any Riding Seats that were won

any available Regional Seats for a region (there will be 0, 1, 2 or 3 depending how many were won as Riding Seats) are awarded to the party with the highest Regional Vote Count; the count for the winning party is reduced by Average Votes per Seat; this is repeated until all seats are awarded

Regional Seats are assigned to the non-elected candidate for the winning party from the Region’s ridings with the highest Riding Proportion

all votes that did not elect a Riding Seat MP or a Regional Seat MP are considered at the national balancing level

10% of the seats are reserved for the Balancing Pool; these are awarded proportionally based on all unused votes from the riding and regional levels and assigned to individual candidates based on their Riding Proportion

Advantages

Simple Ballot Each eligible Canadian voter is entitled to a single, simple vote to be cast for the candidate of their choice in their riding.

High Local Representation 90% of the MPs are either riding or regional representatives.

Inclusive Votes are first considered in riding selections. If they are not used to select a Riding Seat MP then they are used in regional selections. If they are not used to select a Regional Seat MP then they are used in national Balancing Seats selections.

Proportional The combination of 10% Balancing Seats and a consistent vote cost in calculations of Average Votes per Seat leads to a very close correspondence to proportional seat distribution.

Disadvantages

Moderate System Complexity As this system is more complex than first-past-the-post there will always be some who have difficulty grasping the concepts and mechanisms and hence will be resistant to any change.

Attracting Candidates for Competitive Ridings In competitive ridings, particularly those in which more than two parties have strong support, the split in vote will lead to low Riding Proportion values for candidates in the riding. The split means that none will achieve the 60% needed to win the Riding Seat and the low Riding Proportion means a low priority for Balancing Seats.

As competitive ridings tend to cluster they are likely to be in the same Region, so the primary prospect to become an MP for these candidates is as a Regional Seat MP. This fact could make it difficult to attract candidates for these ridings, despite the need for having strong candidates in order to achieve a competitive share of the vote.

However, strong showings in all 3 ridings of a Region by a party can lead to that party winning 2 of the 3 Regional Seats with the two candidates with highest Riding Proportions being awarded those seats. That may provide sufficient enticement to secure the needed strong candidates in all ridings.

Possible Region Popular Vote Deviations in Low Population Regions Whereas in high population Regions it is possible for a party with high popular support to win two Regional Seats this cannot happen in low population Regions as the decrement of Average Votes per Seat for the first Regional Seat (or Riding Seat) will likely result in a negative value and hence another party winning the next seat.

However, this can be offset by the fact that candidates are likely to have high Riding Proportions and a good opportunity to win a Balancing Seat. Analysis of past elections shows this to be the case.

The concept of Regional Votes per Seat presented in the Discussion section would remove this issue. It is not clear that the significant added complexity of regional party disproportional risk (also outlined in the Discussion section) justify the increased regional fairness.

Election Systems Summary

All voting systems have their advantages and disadvantages.

The fundamental question is whether one believes that the removal of the risk of the “tyranny of the majority”, in which actions clearly opposed by the majority of the population are implemented due to an “unearned” majority government with first-past-the-post, justifies the likelihood of minority governments with any type of proportional system.

Then the task is to find a proportional system whose own flaws do not create resistance to change and leave us with the status quo.

Single Vote Proportional addresses the primary disadvantages of the other 3 election systems. The significant advantages of Single Vote Proportional far outweigh its own disadvantages and make it a viable alternative to the current system of first-past-the-post.

How the System Works

Through this document we have applied the proposed system to the actual election data from 2015, 2011, 2008, 2006 and 2004. For purposes of the analysis we have used the existing Electoral Districts (338 in 2015, and 308 for 2011-2008-2006-2004) for the Constituency Seats and have added a corresponding number of Balancing Seats (38 in 2015 and 34 for 2011-2008-2006-2004) for a Total Available Seats of 376 in 2015 and 342 for the four other elections.

The key elements of the proposed system are:

There are two types of seats, Constituency Seats and Balancing Seats, in a ratio of 90:10.

Benefit: achieves a very high degree of local representation while still providing proportionality

Each Canadian gets one simple vote, to vote for a candidate in their riding.

Benefit: achieves electoral reform with minimum impact on voting process no new ballot for voters to understand

For a Constituency Seat to be won as a Riding Seat requires that a candidate receives above a threshold of 60% of the votes cast in the riding; otherwise it will be assigned as a Regional Seat. Note: both 60% and 50% were analyzed as possible threshold values.

Consider the voting results for these three ridings in Quebec in 2015 with a 60% threshold:

Electoral District 24024 Electoral District 24036 Electoral District 24056 0% 0% 1%0% 10% 2% 3% 3% 4% 13% 16%

22% 55% 17% 59% 64% 20%

11%

No Winner Liberal (red) Wins No Winner Will be a Regional Seat Assigned as a Riding Seat Will be a Regional Seat

The percentage of the riding vote received by an individual candidate is referred to as their Riding Proportion. This value is used in assigning a party’s Regional Seats and Balancing Seats to individual candidates.

Ridings are grouped into Regions comprising of 3 adjacent ridings from the same province; provinces with riding counts not divisible by 3 will require one or two regions with only 2 ridings. The single ridings in each of the three Territories are each their own Region with just 1 riding.

Votes for parties are summed from the ridings within the Region providing the Region Vote Count; for any seat won as a Riding Seat, the sum is reduced by the Average Votes per Seat.

In the 2015 federal election there were 17,711,983 votes cast: We divide this by the 377 (the Total Available Seats + 1) and then add 1 to determine the Average Votes per Seat of 46,982 votes.

Consider the vote count from our three ridings. The votes for the three ridings are added for each party.

120000 100000 Liberal 80000 Conservative 60000 NDP 40000 Bloc Quebecois 20000 Green 0 Independent ED 24024 ED 24036 ED 24056 Total

Then the count is reduced for any party that won a Riding Seat. In our example, the Liberal Party won the Riding Seat in Electoral District 24036.

120000 Liberal 100000 80000 Conservative 60000 NDP 40000 Bloc Quebecois 20000 Green 0 Independent Total After Riding Seat reduction

In every Region there will be 0, 1, 2 or 3 available Regional Seats, depending on the number of ridings in the Region as well as how many of them were won as Riding Seats.

These Regional Seats are assigned iteratively to the party with the highest Region Vote Count; the Region Vote Count for winning party is reduced by the Average Votes per Seat; this is repeated until all Regional Seats are awarded.

In our example, the first of two Regional Seats is awarded to the Liberals, and the second is awarded to the NDP.

80000 Liberal 60000 Conservative 40000 NDP 20000 0 Bloc Quebecois -20000 Green -40000 Independent After Riding Seat After Regional Seat 1 After Regional Seat 2 reduction reduction reduction

The Regional Seats are assigned to the candidate from the winning party in the Region that did not win their Riding Seat with the highest Riding Proportion value:

o the Liberal candidate in ED 24036, Francis Scarpaleggia, won their Riding Seat; the other two candidates are: Anju Dhillon with 54.9%, and Frank Baylis with 58.7%; Frank Baylis is selected as a Regional Seat MP

o the 3 NDP candidates are: Isabelle Morin with 21.6%, Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe with 16.4% and Ryan Young with 12.8%; Isabelle Morin is selected as a Regional Seat MP

Votes for parties are summed from all of the ridings in the country providing the National Vote Count; for any Constituency Seat won (whether as a Riding Seat or a Regional Seat), the sum is reduced by the Average Votes per Seat providing the Adjusted National Vote Count.

If the Adjusted National Vote Count is negative for any party, then it is set to 0.

The Adjusted National Vote Count values for all parties (and independents) are summed to determine the Total Balancing Votes.

The Total Balancing Votes value is divided by the number of Balancing Seats + 1 (38 + 1 or 39 in our example) to determine the Votes per Balancing Seat

While Balancing Seats remain, one is awarded to the party (or independent) with the highest National Vote Count; that party’s National Vote Count is reduced by Votes per Balancing Seat.

Inevitably, there will reach a point where no party or independent will have Votes per Balancing Seat remaining in their National Vote Count. Most of the Balancing Seats will have been assigned by this point; those are referred to as Full Count Balancing Seats. The remaining Balancing Seats (typically between 1 and 5 seats in any election) will be awarded for lower vote counts, these are referred to as Partial Count Balancing Seats.

Balancing Seats for a party are assigned based on descending order of Riding Proportion values for all of their candidates that did not win a Riding Seat or a Regional Seat.

By-elections By-elections are only run for Constituency Seats. For Balancing Seats, the assigned political party merely assigns a new MP. The MP is assigned by going from the list of non-elected candidates from the original election and offering the seat in descending order of Riding Proportion until it is assigned.

For Constituency Seats a standard by-election is run using the current process.

If any candidate receives more than 60% of the votes cast then they have won the Riding Seat

If not, then the results of the prior election (or by-election if appropriate) for the other ridings in the Region are considered, and Region Vote Counts for all parties are calculated with appropriate reductions of Average Votes per Seat for any Riding Seats or Regional Seats held.

The Regional Seat is awarded to the party with the highest Region Vote Count. The candidate running in the by-election for this party becomes the Regional Seat MP.

Summary Analysis of Data from the Past 5 Federal Elections

The following analysis compares the results of the 5 federal elections as conducted, to the seat distributions resulting from using the proposed system with both a 60% and 50% vote threshold for winning a Riding Seat. The accompanying spreadsheet provides details of calculations.

Election Lib Con NDP BQ Green Other Deviation

% of vote 39.5 31.9 19.7 4.7 3.4 0.8 -

actual % of seats 54.4 29.3 13.0 3.0 0.3 0 14.9 2015 SVP (60% for riding) 39.4 31.9 20.0 4.8 3.7 0.3 0.3

SVP (50% for riding) 42.3 31.1 18.9 4.5 2.9 0.3 2.8

% of vote 18.9 39.6 30.6 6.1 3.9 0.9 -

actual % of seats 11.0 53.9 33.4 1.3 0.3 0 14.3 2011 SVP (60% for riding) 18.7 40.4 30.4 6.1 3.8 0.6 0.8

SVP (50% for riding) 16.7 45.0 29.2 6.1 2.6 0.3 5.4

% of vote 26.3 37.7 16.2 10.0 6.8 1.0 -

actual % of seats 25.0 46.4 12.0 15.9 0 0.7 8.7 2008 SVP (60% for riding) 28.0 39.5 17.0 9.7 5.0 0.9 1.8

SVP (50% for riding) 27.2 41.5 16.1 9.7 4.7 0.9 3.8

% of vote 30.2 36.3 17.5 10.5 4.5 1.0 -

actual % of seats 33.4 40.3 9.4 16.6 0 0.3 8.1 2006 SVP (60% for riding) 30.1 36.3 17.5 10.5 4.7 0.9 0.2

SVP (50% for riding) 30.7 36.0 17.3 10.8 4.4 0.9 0.5

% of vote 36.7 29.6 15.7 12.4 4.3 1.3 -

actual % of seats 43.8 32.1 6.2 17.5 0 0.3 9.5 2004 SVP (60% for riding) 36.6 29.5 15.5 13.7 4.1 0.6 1.3

SVP (50% for riding) 36.6 29.2 15.2 14.3 3.8 0.9 1.9

Discussion

Riding Seat Vote Threshold - 60% vs. 50%

Analysis of data from 5 elections, two that resulted in majority governments and 3 that resulted in minority governments using first-past-the-post, clearly shows that the higher threshold of 60% for a Riding Seat consistently results in a seat distribution much closer to proportional with popular vote.

Another observation is the much tighter range of average votes per seat among the 5 major parties with the 60% threshold, as can be seen from the following table which also provides maximum deviation from pure proportional.

Election Threshold Average Votes per Seat Range (5 major parties) Deviation

actual election 37,733 - 602,933 14.9

2015 SVP - 60% 43,066 - 46,911 0.3

SVP - 50% 43,666 - 54,812 2.8

actual election 35,152 - 572,095 14.3

2011 SVP - 60% 42,284 - 44,007 0.8

SVP - 50% 37,891 - 63,566 5.4

actual election 28,163 - 67,981 8.7

2008 SVP - 60% 37,845 - 55,153 1.8

SVP - 50% 36,683 - 58,600 3.8

actual election 30,454 - 89,296 8.1

2006 SVP - 60% 41,504 - 43,489 0.2

SVP - 50% 41,978 - 44,271 0.5

actual election 31,113 - 111,968 9.5

2004 SVP - 60% 35,747 - 41,589 1.3

SVP - 50% 34,287 - 44,788 1.9

It can be argued that to truly have a mandate to represent the constituents of a riding requires a super majority, making 60% an appropriate threshold. Conversely, a case can be made that such a mandate exists with 50% + 1, but the greater correspondence to proportional distribution achieved with 60% justifies the higher requirement.

One observation to consider is the high percentage of candidates that would have won their riding with a 50% threshold who end up winning a Regional Seat with the 60% threshold. In the 2015 election analysis this was 65 of 84 cases; in the 2011 analysis it was 82 of 100.

Further, those that did not win Regional Seats become high priority candidates for Balancing Seats; in fact, in the 2015 election all candidates with 50% or higher Riding Proportion won seats except in the Liberal party where they only received one Balancing Seat due to their great success in ridings and Regions with low population (discussed below).

Use of Ballots Cast vs. Eligible Votes

Our calculation method for Average Votes per Seat uses the total number of votes cast instead of using the total number of eligible votes (i.e. spoiled ballots are included). This allows this critical value to be calculated after the last poll has closed and does not require that all votes have been processed. This in turn allows for Regional Seats across most of the country to be calculated and assigned shortly after the last poll has closed in BC. The legal rules for making this calculation will also likely require a tolerance to allow for slight miscounts that could happen on election night.

Average Votes per Seat and “Vote Borrowing”

Whenever a winning candidate (for a Riding Seat) or party (for a Regional Seat) has fewer votes than the required Average Votes per Seat then they will implicitly “borrow” those votes.

A Riding Seat winner with a vote shortfall will “borrow” from the other ridings in the region by reducing the party’s Regional Vote Count.

Both Riding Seat and Regional Seat winners with vote shortfalls will “borrow” from the other ridings in the country by reducing the party’s National Vote Count.

This occurs most frequently in low population ridings/regions as well as with the assignment of the final Regional Seat in a Region. This effect can be seen anywhere there is a negative value in the spreadsheet.

“Over-borrowing” occurs when a large percentage of a party’s seats required borrowing and results in a party having a negative National Vote Count and therefore an Adjusted National Vote Count of 0 (see the detailed Balancing Seat calculations in Appendix B for examples). This is the primary reason for deviations from pure proportional seat distributions in this system.

Party Unused Votes (Adjusted National Vote Count) - Alternative Calculation Method

The primary method for calculating a party’s Adjusted National Vote Count is to sum all of the votes for the party across the country, and then reduce this amount by Average Votes per Seat for each Riding Seat or Regional Seat that they won. This is consistent with the method for calculating the Regional Vote Count and provides a simple description for voters - every vote is counted at the riding level, the regional level and the national level.

Mathematically, this is equivalent to adding all of the final Regional Vote Counts for the party (thanks to the commutative properties of addition and subtraction). This equivalence is shown on the spreadsheet for ‘2015 - 60%’ and ‘2011 - 60%’.

Low Population Ridings and Impact on Pure Proportional Representation

Ridings with low population represent a systemic risk to result in non-proportional seat distributions. These ridings were created to ensure adequate representation in the House of Commons for these areas with lower population. Because of this sound reasoning, there will always be these low population ridings, and consequently there will always be a risk of a skew from proportional distribution.

The extent of any skew will be highly dependent on the distribution of these low population ridings. If these ridings are dominantly won by one party, as it was for the Liberals in the 2015 election and for the Conservatives in the 2011 election, then these seats are likely to create a skew from proportional distribution.

2015 and 2011 Election Riding Seats Analysis # of Riding Seats with Actual Winning Vote Count Party Avg Election & Party 20000 - 25000 - 30000 - Votes per Threshold <20000 >35000 25000 30000 35000 Seat

2015 -50% 6 19 31 22 9 43,666 Liberal 2015 - 60% 3 3 9 4 3 46,911

2011 - 50% 9 22 34 19 23 37,891 Conservative 2011 - 60% 3 8 6 7 17 42,284

Note that the risks associated with low population ridings are more prevalent with the lower threshold, providing additional argument that a 60% threshold is appropriate.

Low population ridings can have an opposite effect on seat distribution vs. regional popular vote when most of them are not awarded as Riding Seats but as Regional Seats. In this situation a party can have a lower regional seat count than their share of the popular vote would dictate because the initial decrement of Average Votes per Seat reduces their vote count such that other parties will win the Regional Seats. This situation is exacerbated in 2 riding Regions.

This regional under-representation can be lessened due to national Balancing Seats which ensure a distribution close to national popular vote. Typically, candidates who might have won an extra Regional Seat would tend to have a high Riding Proportion value so that they would be high on their party’s list for Balancing Seats.

Local Representation vs. Stronger Proportional Balance

The likelihood of close proportional balance can be increased with a larger balancing pool. But an increase in the size of the balancing pool results in a corresponding decrease in the level of local representation. The Mixed-Member Proportional is the extreme with 50% of the seats in the balancing pool and therefore the lowest level of local representation of all election systems.

The 90:10 seat mix of the Single Vote Proportional system provides exceptionally close to proportional seat distributions while still maintaining near total local representation.

Increased Likelihood of Minority Governments

With the Single Vote Proportional system, as with any proportional representation voting system, the likelihood of a minority government is extremely high. This is due to the fact that in very few multi-party elections does one party ever receive a majority of the popular vote. In Canada, it has only happened 4 times since WW1.

Participation of Smaller Parties and Independents in Parliament

An often-expressed concern in the discussion of electoral reform and systems with proportional representation is the risk of a fractured government with the balance of power held by fringe groups.

In the Single Vote Proportional system, Riding Seats require 60% of the riding vote and Regional Seats are awarded to the party or independent with the highest regional vote count. In either of these situations, a winning small party or independent is clearly deserving of the seat.

In all elections analyzed thus far, the number of votes required for a Balancing Seat has been greater than the Average Votes per Seat. Again, any small party or independent who achieves this level of national support is certainly deserving of representation in the House of Commons.

The last remaining opportunity for a smaller entity to win a Partial Count Balancing Seat. Typically, there are between 1 and 5 seats available at this stage and in the 5 elections analyzed 0, 1 or 2 of these have gone to smaller entities.

Although a proportional system encourages the existence of parties dedicated to specific points of view, with Canada’s established system of 3 major national parties and 1 strong regional party and a fourth smaller national party, the likelihood of multiple new entrants garnering sufficient support to lead to a fractured government is quite low.

Note that smaller parties that run candidates in many ridings increase their likelihood of winning a Partial Count Balancing Seat. This was the case for the Libertarian Party in the 2015 election with 36,775 votes and the Marijuana Party in the 2004 election with 33,276 votes.

Strategic Voting

Strategic voting, in which voters will cast their vote for a candidate other than their first choice in order to increase the likelihood a third undesired candidate will not win the riding, occurs regularly in the current first-past-the-post system.

The Mixed-Member Proportional system has two separate votes on the ballot in order to allow voters to strategically vote in their riding while still expressing their first choice for party on the national balancing component.

The Single Vote Proportional system eliminates the need for strategic voting. Every vote for any candidate other than a non-desired one has the same impact, they each equally place the non- desired candidate further from achieving the threshold percentage to win the Riding Seat.

Possible Modification: Average Votes per Region

A possible modification to the system would have a different seat cost used in calculations for Regional Seats than is used for Balancing Seats. This addresses the system’s disadvantage of potential deviation from regional popular vote in low population regions. In this modification, the Average Votes per Regional Seat is calculated and used in each Region.

Analysis of this modification was done for the ‘2015 - 60%’ and ‘2008 - 60%’ cases. The following table summarizes the results.

2015 2008

Party % of Seats % of Seats % of % of Seats % of Seats % of Vote Single Cost Dual Cost Vote Single Cost Dual Cost

Liberal 39.5 39.4 39.4 26.3 28.1 26.6

Conservative 31.9 31.9 31.9 37.7 39.5 40.1

NDP 19.7 20.0 20.0 16.2 17.0 17.0

Bloc Quebecois 4.7 4.8 4.8 10.0 9.7 10.2

Green 3.4 3.7 3.7 6.8 5.0 5.3

Given the added complexity of the modification, both in terms of explaining the system to the voting public and in the actual system implementation, it appears that it is not justified. However, appeasing lower population Regions may justify the complexity. Also note that with the modification calculations for Regional Seats only require the last poll in the Region to be closed, not the last poll in the country.

Companion Spreadsheet and Next Steps

The companion spreadsheet provides all of the detailed calculations for the past 5 federal elections (2015, 2011, 2008, 2006, 2004) for both the 60% and 50% requirements for Riding Seats. The two dual cost analyses, ‘2015 - 60% Dual Cost’ and ‘2008 - 60% Dual Cost’ are also provided.

As a next step, software to allow analysis of new elections is under development. This will greatly enhance the ability to apply the system to other elections, both federally for Canada as well as other jurisdictions, as well as simplifying the exploration of other electoral district to region mappings.

Appendix A: Review of the Fundamental Concepts

Electoral Districts Electoral Districts are more commonly known as ridings. Both terms are used throughout this document.

Simple Ballot Each eligible Canadian voter gets exactly what they have in the current system; a single, simple vote to be cast for the candidate of their choice in their riding.

Regions Ridings are grouped into Regions, each consisting of 3 adjacent ridings from the same province. Some provinces will require one or two regions with only 2 ridings as the provincial riding count is not exactly divisible by 3. The single ridings in each of the three territories are their own separate region of 1 riding to ensure local representation.

Constituency Seats Constituency Seats are assigned as either Riding Seats or Regional Seats. They represent 90% of the available seats.

Balancing Seats Balancing Seats represent the other 10% of the available seats. They are assigned proportionately with votes that have not been consumed in the election of Constituency Seat MPs.

Total Available Seats The sum of the number of Constituency Seats and the number of Balancing Seats. In the analysis done in this document we have used 338 Constituency Seats plus 38 Balancing Seats for 376 Total Available Seats. Alternatively, we could realign our Electoral Districts into 304 Constituency Seats, adding 34 Balancing Seats to maintain the current 338 Total Available Seats.

Additional analysis of earlier elections was also done using 308 Constituency Seats, adding 34 Balancing Seats providing 342 Total Available Seats.

Riding Seats The current system is 100% Riding Seats with the MP selected using first-past-the-post. In the proposed system, a Riding Seat is only assigned if a candidate receives greater than a 60% threshold of the votes cast in the riding.

If no candidate receives the required number of votes then the Constituency Seat will be awarded as a Regional Seat.

Riding Proportion The Riding Proportion is the percentage of votes cast in a riding received by an individual candidate. This value is used in selecting MPs for Regional Seats and Balancing Seats.

Average Votes per Seat The Average Votes per Seat is the number of votes removed from future consideration for a Constituency Seat, whether as a Riding Seat or a Regional Seat. This value is set on election night after the last poll has closed according to this formula:

rounddown( Total Number of Votes Cast) + 1 Total Available Seats + 1

Regional Vote Count The Regional Vote Count is the is the sum of all votes received by a party in the ridings of the Region, less the Average Votes per Seat for any Riding Seats that were won by the party. This can be negative.

The Regional Vote Count for an independent/non-aligned candidate is either 0 (if they won the Riding Seat) or the number of votes they received.

Regional Seats In any Region, there will be 0, 1, 2 or 3 available Regional Seats; this number will depend on the number of ridings within the region and how many, if any, of the Constituency Seats were assigned as Riding Seats.

Regional Seat(s) are assigned iteratively to the party with the highest Regional Vote Count; the winning party’s Regional Vote Count is reduced by the Average Votes per Seat and the process is repeated until all Regional Seats are awarded.

Regional Seats are assigned to the candidate of the winning party, from the ridings within the region, with the highest Riding Proportion that did not win a Riding Seat.

Regional Seats are associated with a specific riding (Electoral District) for by-election purposes If any of the Regional Seat selected candidates are from a riding which did not elect a Riding Seat MP, then the Regional Seat for the candidate with the highest Riding Proportion is associated with that riding. If only one riding is without both a Riding Seat MP and a Regional

Seat selected candidate, then the selected candidate from either the riding with a Riding Seat MP or the candidate with the lower Riding Proportion from riding with an assigned Regional Seat candidate is assigned to the riding. If two ridings are without both Riding Seat MPs and Regional Seat selected candidates, then the assignment decision is made by the Returning Officer of the third riding of the region.

National Vote Count The National Vote Count is the is the sum of all votes received by a party or independent in the country, less the Average Votes per Seat for any Riding Seats or Regional Seats that were won by the party. If this is negative it is set to 0.

Total Balancing Votes The sum of the National Vote Counts from all parties and independents is the Total Balancing Votes.

Votes per Balancing Seat The Votes per Balancing Seat is calculated with this formula:

rounddown( Total Balancing Votes ) + 1 # of Balancing Seats + 1

Awarding Balancing Seats Balancing Seat(s) are assigned iteratively to the party with the highest National Vote Count; the winning party’s National Vote Count is reduced by the Votes per Balancing Seat and the process is repeated until all Balancing Seats are awarded.

Balancing Seats are assigned to the candidate from the winning party that did not win Riding Seats or Regional Seats with the highest Riding Proportion.

Appendix B1: Detailed Analysis of Data from the 2015 Federal Election

This section provides a more detailed analysis of the results of the 2015 federal election and those that would have occurred using the proposed Single Vote Proportional system with the existing 338 electoral districts and adding 38 Balancing Seats for a total of 376 seats

2015 Actual Results

Party # of Votes % # of Seats % Votes / Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 6,942,937 39.5 184 54.4 37,733

Conservative Party of Canada 5,613,633 31.9 99 29.3 56,703

New Democratic Party 3,469,368 19.7 44 13.0 78,849

Bloc Quebecois 821,144 4.7 10 3.0 82,144

Green Party of Canada 602,933 3.4 1 0.3 602,933

Libertarian Party of Canada 36,755 0.2 0 0 n/a

Christian Heritage Party of Canada 15,232 0.09 0 0 n/a

Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada 8,838 0.05 0 0 n/a

Forces et Democratie 8,274 0.05 0 0 n/a

Rhinoceros Party 7,263 0.04 0 0 n/a

All other parties & independents 65,091 0.37 0 0 n/a

Sub-total 17,591,468 100 338 100 52,046

Spoiled ballots 120,515

Total 17,711,983

Note the large disparity in ‘Votes / Seat’. The proposed system addresses this by introducing consistent vote cost per seat for Constituency Seats in ongoing calculations as well as Balancing Seats.

Proposed System Results for 2015 with 60% Threshold for Riding Seats

% of # of Seats Votes / Party Votes Riding Region Balancing Total % Old % Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 39.5 22 124 1 1 148 39.4 54.4 46,911

Conservative Party of 31.9 26 84 10 0 120 31.9 29.3 46,780 Canada

New Democratic Party 19.7 0 64 10 1 75 20.0 13.0 46,258

Bloc Quebecois 4.7 0 17 0 1 18 4.8 3.0 45,619

Green Party of Canada 3.4 0 1 12 1 14 3.7 0.3 43,066

Libertarian Party of 0.2 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 36,775 Canada

Christian Heritage Party 0.09 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party of 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a Canada

Forces et Democratie 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a

Rhinoceros Party 0.04 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a

All other parties & 0.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a independents

Votes cast: 17,711,983 total 17,591,468 valid Average Votes per Seat: 46,982 Total Balancing Votes: 1,710,125 Votes per Balancing Seat: 43,850 Partial Count Balancing Seats: 5 Lowest Partial Count Balancing Seat Votes: 22,450

This table shows the Balancing Seat calculations with a 60% Riding Seat threshold.

# of Full Partial # of Partial National Count Count Count Party Vote Balancing Balancing Balancing Count Seats Seat Votes Seats

Liberal 83,565 1 39,715 1

Conservative 445,613 10 7,113 0

New Democratic Party 465,520 10 24,020 1

Bloc Quebecois 22,450 0 22,450 1

Green 555,951 12 29,751 1

Libertarian 36,775 0 36,775 1

Christian Heritage Party 15,232 0 15,232 0

Marxist-Leninist 8,744 0 8,744 0

Forces et Democratie 6,941 0 6,941 0

Rhinoceros Party 7,263 0 7,263 0

11,652* All other parties & independents 65,071 0 (highest 0 independent) Total Balancing Votes 1,710,125 (sum of all Party Unused Votes)

Votes per Balancing Seat 43,850 (divide by 39, then add 1)

# of Partial Count Balancing Seats 5 (38 - # of Full Count Balancing Seats)

Proposed System Results for 2015 with 50% Threshold for Riding Seats

% of # of Seats Votes / Party Votes Riding Region Balancing Total % Old % Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 39.5 87 72 0 0 159 42.3 54.4 43,666

Conservative Party of 31.9 42 62 12 1 117 31.1 29.3 47,979 Canada

New Democratic Party 19.7 2 55 13 1 71 18.9 13.0 48,864

Bloc Quebecois 4.7 0 17 0 0 17 4.5 3.0 48,302

Green Party of Canada 3.4 1 0 9 1 11 2.9 0.3 54,812

Libertarian Party of 0.2 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 36,775 Canada

Christian Heritage Party 0.09 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

Forces et Democratie 0.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a

Rhinoceros Party 0.04 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a

All other parties & 0.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a independents

Votes cast: 17,711,983 total 17,591,468 valid Average Votes per Seat: 46,982 Total Balancing Votes: 2,252,820 Votes per Balancing Seat: 57,765 Partial Count Balancing Seats: 4 Lowest Partial Count Balancing Seat Votes: 34,325

This table shows the Balancing Seat calculations with a 50% Riding Seat threshold.

Adjusted # of Full Partial # of Partial National Count Count Count Party Vote Balancing Balancing Balancing Count Seats Seat Votes Seats

Liberal -512,410* 0 0 0

Conservative 727,505 12 34,325 1

New Democratic Party 791,394 13 40,449 1

Bloc Quebecois 22,450 0 22,450 0

Green 571,445 9 51,560 1

Libertarian 36,775 0 36,775 1

Christian Heritage Party 15,232 0 15,232 0

Marxist-Leninist 8,744 0 8,744 0

Forces et Democratie 6,941 0 6,941 0

Rhinoceros Party 7,263 0 7,263 0

11,652* All other parties & independents 65,071 0 (highest 0 independent) Total Balancing Votes 2,252,820 (sum of all Party Unused Votes)

Votes per Balancing Seat 57,765 (divide by 39, then add 1)

# of Partial Count Balancing Seats 4 (38 - # of Full Count Balancing Seats)

* As the Adjusted National Vote Count for the Liberals was negative, their Adjusted National Vote Count is set to 0.

Full Assignment of Candidates to Balancing Seats for 2015 - 60%

Full assignment of the 38 Balancing Seats was done for the 60% threshold case using the Riding Proportion priority of all candidates not assigned a Riding Seat or a Regional Seat. The “2015 - elected with 60%” tab of the spreadsheet shows these assignments.

Appendix C contains the detailed summary of all MPs for all Electoral Districts that were elected in the actual election. It details whether they ended up with a Riding Seat, Regional Seat, Full Count Balancing Seat, Partial Count Balancing Seat or no seat at all.

It also provides details of new MPs (those that were not elected in the actual election) and their assignment to seat types and Electoral Districts.

The following table summarizes the number of MP additions and deletions.

Candidate Status in Single Vote Proportional Analysis Candidate Status Full Count Partial Count No Total in actual Election Riding Regional Balancing Balancing Seat

Elected 48 184 16 4 86 338

Not elected 0 106 17 1 124

338 38 376

Appendix B2: Detailed Analysis of Data from the 2011 Federal Election

This section provides a more detailed analysis of the results of the 2011 federal election and those that would have occurred using the proposed Single Vote Proportional system with the existing 308 electoral districts and adding 34 Balancing Seats for a total of 342 seats

2011 Actual Results

Party # of Votes % # of Seats % Votes / Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 2,783,076 18.9 34 11.0 81,855

Conservative Party of Canada 5,835,270 39.6 166 53.9 35,152

New Democratic Party 4,512,411 30.6 103 33.4 43,810

Bloc Quebecois 891,425 6.1 4 1.3 222,856

Green Party of Canada 572,095 3.9 1 0.3 572,095

Libertarian Party of Canada 6,002 0.0 0 0 n/a

Christian Heritage Party of Canada 18,910 0.1 0 0 n/a

Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada 9,925 0.1 0 0 n/a

Rhinoceros Party 3,800 0.0 0 0 n/a

All other parties & independents 91,066 0.6 0 0 n/a

Sub-total 14,723,980 100 308 100 47,805

Spoiled ballots 99,428

Total 14,823,408

Proposed System Results for 2011 with 60% Threshold for Riding Seats

% of # of Seats Votes / Party Votes Riding Region Balancing Total % Old % Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 18.9 0 49 14 1 64 18.7 11.0 43,485

Conservative Party of 39.6 40 98 0 0 138 40.4 53.9 42,284 Canada

New Democratic Party 30.6 5 94 5 0 104 30.4 33.4 43,388

Bloc Quebecois 6.1 0 21 0 0 21 6.1 1.3 42,448

Green Party of Canada 3.9 0 1 11 1 13 3.8 0.3 44,007

Libertarian Party of 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a Canada

Christian Heritage Party 0.1 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 18,910 of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

Rhinoceros Party 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a

All other parties & 0.6 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 16,263 independents

Votes cast: 14,823,408 total 14,723,980 valid Average Votes per Seat: 43,217 Total Balancing Votes: 1,557,785 Votes per Balancing Seat: 44,509 Partial Count Balancing Seats: 4 Lowest Partial Count Balancing Seat Votes: 16,263

This table shows the Balancing Seat calculations with a 60% Riding Seat threshold.

Adjusted # of Full Partial # of Partial National Count Count Count Party Vote Balancing Balancing Balancing Count Seats Seat Votes Seats

Liberal 665,443 14 42,317 1

Conservative -128,676* 0 0 0

New Democratic Party 233,928 5 11,383 0

Bloc Quebecois -16,132* 0 0 0

Green 528,878 11 39,279 1

Libertarian 6,002 0 6,002 0

Christian Heritage Party 18,910 0 18,910 1

Marxist-Leninist 9,758 0 9,758 0

Rhinoceros Party 3,800 0 3,800 0

16,263* All other parties & independents 91,066 0 (highest 1 independent) Total Balancing Votes 1,557,785 (sum of all Party Unused Votes)

Votes per Balancing Seat 44,509 (divide by 35, then add 1)

# of Partial Count Balancing Seats 4 (34 - # of Full Count Balancing Seats)

* As the initial Adjusted National Vote Count for the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois was negative, their Adjusted National Vote Count is set to 0.

Proposed System Results for 2011 with 50% Threshold for Riding Seats

% of # of Seats Votes / Party Votes Riding Region Balancing Total % Old % Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 18.9 2 40 15 0 57 16.7 11.0 48,825

Conservative Party of 39.6 107 47 0 0 154 45.0 53.9 37,891 Canada

New Democratic Party 30.6 36 55 9 0 100 29.2 33.4 45,124

Bloc Quebecois 6.1 0 20 0 1 21 6.1 1.3 42,448

Green Party of Canada 3.9 0 1 8 0 9 2.6 0.3 63,566

Libertarian Party of 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a Canada

Christian Heritage Party 0.1 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 18,910 of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

Rhinoceros Party 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a

All other parties & 0.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a independents

Votes cast: 14,823,408 total 14,723,980 valid Average Votes per Seat: 43,217 Total Balancing Votes: 2,233,125 Votes per Balancing Seat: 63,804 Partial Count Balancing Seats: 2 Lowest Partial Count Balancing Seat Votes: 18,910

This table shows the Balancing Seat calculations with a 50% Riding Seat threshold.

Adjusted # of Full Partial # of Partial National Count Count Count Party Vote Balancing Balancing Balancing Count Seats Seat Votes Seats

Liberal 967,962 15 10,902 0

Conservative -820,148* 0 0 0

New Democratic Party 579,664 9 5,428 0

Bloc Quebecois 27,085 0 27,085 1

Green 528,878 8 18,446 0

Libertarian 6,002 0 6,002 0

Christian Heritage Party 18,910 0 18,910 1

Marxist-Leninist 9,758 0 9,758 0

Rhinoceros Party 3,800 0 3,800 0

16,263* All other parties & independents 91,066 0 (highest 0 independent) Total Balancing Votes 2,233,125 (sum of all Party Unused Votes)

Votes per Balancing Seat 63,804 (divide by 35, then add 1)

# of Partial Count Balancing Seats 2 (34 - # of Full Count Balancing Seats)

* As the initial Adjusted National Vote Count for the Conservatives was negative, their Adjusted National Vote Count is set to 0.

Appendix B3: Detailed Analysis of Data from the 2008 Federal Election

This section provides a more detailed analysis of the results of the 2008 federal election and those that would have occurred using the proposed Single Vote Proportional system with the existing 308 electoral districts and adding 34 Balancing Seats for a total of 342 seats

2008 Actual Results

Party # of Votes % # of Seats % Votes / Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 3,633,185 26.3 77 25.0 47,184

Conservative Party of Canada 5,209,069 37.7 143 46.4 36,427

New Democratic Party 2,515,288 16.2 37 12.0 67,981

Bloc Quebecois 1,379,991 10.0 49 15.9 28,163

Green Party of Canada 937,613 6.8 0 0 n/a

Libertarian Party of Canada 7,300 0.1 0 0 n/a

Christian Heritage Party of Canada 26,475 0.2 0 0 n/a

Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada 8,565 0.1 0 0 n/a

Rhinoceros Party 336 0.0 0 0 n/a

All other parties & independents 86,378 6.2 2 0.7

Sub-total 13,834,294 100 308

Spoiled ballots 94,799

Total 13,929,093

Proposed System Results for 2008 with 60% Threshold for Riding Seats

% of # of Seats Votes / Party Votes Riding Region Balancing Total % Old % Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 26.3 4 92 0 0 96 28.0 25.0 37,845

Conservative Party of 37.7 34 101 0 0 135 39.5 46.4 38,585 Canada

New Democratic Party 16.2 3 41 13 1 58 17.0 12.0 43,367

Bloc Quebecois 10.0 0 31 2 0 33 9.7 15.9 41,817

Green Party of Canada 6.8 0 0 17 0 17 5.0 0 55,153

Libertarian Party of 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a Canada

Christian Heritage Party 0.2 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 26,351 of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

Rhinoceros Party 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a

All other parties & 6.2 1 1 0 0 2 0.6 0.7 21,632 independents

Votes cast: 13,929,093 total 13,834,294 valid Average Votes per Seat: 40,610 Total Balancing Votes: 1,900,112 Votes per Balancing Seat: 54,289 Partial Count Balancing Seats: 2 Lowest Partial Count Balancing Seat Votes: 22,691

This table shows the Balancing Seat calculations with a 60% Riding Seat threshold.

Adjusted # of Full Partial # of Partial National Count Count Count Party Vote Balancing Balancing Balancing Count Seats Seat Votes Seats

Liberal -265,375* 0 0 0

Conservative -273,281* 0 0 0

New Democratic Party 728,448 13 22,691 1

Bloc Quebecois 121,081 2 12,503 0

Green 937,613 17 14,700 0

Libertarian 7,300 0 7,300 0

Christian Heritage Party 26,351 0 26,351 1

Marxist-Leninist 8,565 0 8,565 0

Rhinoceros Party 336 0 336 0

All other parties & independents 70,418 0 15,063 0

Total Balancing Votes 1,900,112 (sum of all Party Unused Votes)

Votes per Balancing Seat 54,289 (divide by 35, then add 1)

# of Partial Count Balancing Seats 2 (34 - # of Full Count Balancing Seats)

* As the initial Adjusted National Vote Count for the Liberals and the Conservatives was negative, their Adjusted National Vote Count is set to 0.

Proposed System Results for 2008 with 50% Threshold for Riding Seats

% of # of Seats Votes / Party Votes Riding Region Balancing Total % Old % Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 26.3 17 76 0 0 93 27.2 25.0 39,066

Conservative Party of 37.7 80 62 0 0 142 41.5 46.4 36,683 Canada

New Democratic Party 16.2 7 32 15 1 55 16.1 12.0 45,732

Bloc Quebecois 10.0 13 19 1 0 33 9.7 15.9 41,817

Green Party of Canada 6.8 0 0 15 1 16 4.7 0 58,600

Libertarian Party of 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a Canada

Christian Heritage Party 0.2 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 26,351 of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

Rhinoceros Party 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a

All other parties & 6.2 1 1 0 0 2 0.6 0.7 21,632 independents

Votes cast: 13,929,093 total 13,834,294 valid Average Votes per Seat: 40,610 Total Balancing Votes: 2,078,512 Votes per Balancing Seat: 59,387 Partial Count Balancing Seats: 3 Lowest Partial Count Balancing Seat Votes: 26,351

This table shows the Balancing Seat calculations with a 50% Riding Seat threshold.

Adjusted # of Full Partial # of Partial National Count Count Count Party Vote Balancing Balancing Balancing Count Seats Seat Votes Seats

Liberal -143,545* 0 0 0

Conservative -557,551* 0 0 0

New Democratic Party 931,498 15 40,693 1

Bloc Quebecois 80,471 1 21,084 0

Green 937,613 15 46,808 1

Libertarian 7,300 0 7,300 0

Christian Heritage Party 26,351 0 26,351 1

Marxist-Leninist 8,565 0 8,565 0

Rhinoceros Party 336 0 336 0

All other parties & independents 86,378 0 15,960 0

Total Balancing Votes 2,078,512 (sum of all Party Unused Votes)

Votes per Balancing Seat 59,387 (divide by 35, then add 1)

# of Partial Count Balancing Seats 3 (34 - # of Full Count Balancing Seats)

* As the initial Adjusted National Vote Count for the Liberals and Conservatives was negative, their Adjusted National Vote Count is set to 0.

Appendix B4: Detailed Analysis of Data from the 2006 Federal Election

This section provides a more detailed analysis of the results of the 2006 federal election and those that would have occurred using the proposed Single Vote Proportional system with the existing 308 electoral districts and adding 34 Balancing Seats for a total of 342 seats

2006 Actual Results

Party # of Votes % # of Seats % Votes / Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 4,479,415 30.2 103 33.4 43,489

Conservative Party of Canada 5,374,071 36.3 124 40.3 43,339

New Democratic Party 2,589,597 17.5 29 9.4 89,296

Bloc Quebecois 1,553,201 10.5 51 16.6 30,454

Green Party of Canada 664,068 4.5 0 0 n/a

Libertarian Party of Canada 3,002 0 0 0 n/a

Christian Heritage Party of Canada 28,152 0 0 0 n/a

Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada 8,980 0 0 0 n/a

All other parties & independents 96,515 0.7 1 0.3

Sub-total 14,817,159 100 308 100

Spoiled ballots 91,544

Total 14,908,703

Proposed System Results for 2006 with 60% Threshold for Riding Seats

% of # of Seats Votes / Party Votes Riding Region Balancing Total % Old % Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 30.2 6 94 3 0 103 30.1 33.4 43,489

Conservative Party of 36.3 26 97 0 1 124 36.3 40.3 43,339 Canada

New Democratic Party 17.5 0 51 8 1 60 17.5 9.4 43,159

Bloc Quebecois 10.5 3 30 2 1 36 10.5 16.6 43,144

Green Party of Canada 4.5 0 0 15 1 16 4.7 0 41,504

Libertarian Party of 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a Canada

Christian Heritage Party 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 28,152 of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

All other parties & 0.7 0 1 0 1 2 0.6 0.3 15,020 independents

Votes cast: 14,908,703 total 14,817,159 valid Average Votes per Seat: 43,466 Total Balancing Votes: 1,452,939 Votes per Balancing Seat: 41,513 Partial Count Balancing Seats: 6 Lowest Partial Count Balancing Seat Votes: 9,882

This table shows the Balancing Seat calculations with a 60% Riding Seat threshold.

Adjusted # of Full Partial # of Partial National Count Count Count Party Vote Balancing Balancing Balancing Count Seats Seat Votes Seats

Liberal 132,815 3 8,276 0

Conservative 27,753 0 27,753 1

New Democratic Party 372,831 8 40,727 1

Bloc Quebecois 118,823 2 35,797 1

Green 664,068 15 41,373 1

Libertarian 3,002 0 3,002 0

Christian Heritage Party 28,152 0 28,152 1

Marxist-Leninist 8,980 0 8,980 0

All other parties & independents 96,515 0 9,882 1

Total Balancing Votes 1,452,939 (sum of all Party Unused Votes)

Votes per Balancing Seat 41,513 (divide by 35, then add 1)

# of Partial Count Balancing Seats 6 (34 - # of Full Count Balancing Seats)

Proposed System Results for 2006 with 50% Threshold for Riding Seats

% of # of Seats Votes / Party Votes Riding Region Balancing Total % Old % Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 30.2 37 68 0 0 105 30.7 33.4 42,661

Conservative Party of 36.3 55 59 9 0 123 36.0 40.3 43,691 Canada

New Democratic Party 17.5 6 45 8 0 59 17.3 9.4 43,891

Bloc Quebecois 10.5 25 12 0 0 37 10.8 16.6 41,978

Green Party of Canada 4.5 0 0 14 1 15 4.4 0 44,271

Libertarian Party of 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a Canada

Christian Heritage Party 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 28,152 of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

All other parties & 0.7 0 1 0 1 2 0.6 0.3 independents

Votes cast: 14,908,703 total 14,817,159 valid Average Votes per Seat: 43,446 Total Balancing Votes: 1,592,495 Votes per Balancing Seat: 45,500 Partial Count Balancing Seats: 3 Lowest Partial Count Balancing Seat Votes: 9,882

This table shows the Balancing Seat calculations with a 50% Riding Seat threshold.

Adjusted # of Full Partial # of Partial National Count Count Count Party Vote Balancing Balancing Balancing Count Seats Seat Votes Seats

Liberal -84,515* 0 0 0

Conservative 418,947 9 9,447 0

New Democratic Party 372,831 8 8,831 0

Bloc Quebecois -55,041* 0 0 0

Green 664,068 14 27,068 1

Libertarian 3,002 0 3,002 0

Christian Heritage Party 28,152 0 28,152 1

Marxist-Leninist 8,980 0 8,980 0

All other parties & independents 96,515 0 9,882 1

Total Balancing Votes 1,592,495 (sum of all Party Unused Votes)

Votes per Balancing Seat 45,500 (divide by 35, then add 1)

# of Partial Count Balancing Seats 3 (34 - # of Full Count Balancing Seats)

* As the initial Adjusted National Vote Count for the Liberals and BQ was negative, their Adjusted National Vote Count is set to 0.

Appendix B5: Detailed Analysis of Data from the 2004 Federal Election

This section provides a more detailed analysis of the results of the 2004 federal election and those that would have occurred using the proposed Single Vote Proportional system with the existing 308 electoral districts and adding 34 Balancing Seats for a total of 342 seats

2004 Actual Results

Party # of Votes % # of Seats % Votes / Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 4,982,220 36.7 135 43.8 36,905

Conservative Party of Canada 4,019,498 29.6 99 32.1 40,601

New Democratic Party 2,127,403 15.7 19 6.2 111,969

Bloc Quebecois 1,680,109 12.4 54 17.5 31,113

Green Party of Canada 582,247 4.3 0 0 n/a

Libertarian Party of Canada 1,949 0.0 0 0 n/a

Christian Heritage Party of Canada 40,335 0.3 0 0 n/a

Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada 8,696 0.1 0 0 n/a

Marijuana Party 33,276 0.2 0 0 n/a

All other parties & independents 89,267 0.7 1 0.3 15,089

Sub-total 13,564,702 100 308 100

Spoiled ballots 118,868

Total 13,683,570

Proposed System Results for 2004 with 60% Threshold for Riding Seats

% of # of Seats Votes / Party Votes Riding Region Balancing Total % Old % Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 36.7 14 106 4 1 125 36.6 43.8 39,857

Conservative Party of 29.6 23 74 3 1 101 29.5 32.1 39,797 Canada

New Democratic Party 15.7 0 44 8 1 53 15.5 6.2 40,139

Bloc Quebecois 12.4 17 30 0 0 47 13.7 17.5 35,747

Green Party of Canada 4.3 0 0 13 1 14 4.1 0 41,589

Libertarian Party of 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a Canada

Christian Heritage Party 0.3 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 40,335 of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

Marijuana Party 0.2 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 33,276

All other parties & 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 n/a independents

Votes cast: 13,683,570 total 13,564,702 valid Average Votes per Seat: 39,894 Total Balancing Votes: 1,472,557 Votes per Balancing Seat: 42,074 Partial Count Balancing Seats: 6 Lowest Partial Count Balancing Seat Votes: 23,558

This table shows the Balancing Seat calculations with a 60% Riding Seat threshold.

Adjusted # of Full Partial # of Partial National Count Count Count Party Vote Balancing Balancing Balancing Count Seats Seat Votes Seats

Liberal 194,940 4 26,644 1

Conservative 149,780 3 23,558 1

New Democratic Party 372,067 8 35,475 1

Bloc Quebecois -194,909* 0 0 0

Green 582,247 13 35,285 1

Libertarian 1,949 0 1,949 0

Christian Heritage Party 40,335 0 40,335 1

Marxist-Leninist 8,696 0 8,696 0

Marijuana Party 33,276 0 33,276 1

All other parties & independents 89,267 0 15,089 0

Total Balancing Votes 1,472,557 (sum of all Party Unused Votes)

Votes per Balancing Seat 42,074 (divide by 35, then add 1)

# of Partial Count Balancing Seats 6 (34 - # of Full Count Balancing Seats)

* As the initial Adjusted National Vote Count for the BQ was negative, their Adjusted National Vote Count is set to 0.

Proposed System Results for 2004 with 50% Threshold for Riding Seats

% of # of Seats Votes / Party Votes Riding Region Balancing Total % Old % Seat

Liberal Party of Canada 36.7 53 72 0 0 125 36.6 43.8 39,857

Conservative Party of 29.6 40 51 8 1 100 29.2 32.1 40,194 Canada

New Democratic Party 15.7 3 40 9 0 52 15.2 6.2 40,911

Bloc Quebecois 12.4 40 9 0 0 49 14.3 17.5 34,287

Green Party of Canada 4.3 0 0 13 0 13 3.8 0 44,788

Libertarian Party of 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a Canada

Christian Heritage Party 0.3 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 40,335 of Canada

Marxist-Leninist Party 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a of Canada

Marijuana Party 0.2 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0 33,276

All other parties & 0.7 0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.3 15,089 independents

Votes cast: 13,683,570 total 13,564,702 valid Average Votes per Seat: 39,894 Total Balancing Votes: 1,556,875 Votes per Balancing Seat: 44,483 Partial Count Balancing Seats: 4 Lowest Partial Count Balancing Seat Votes: 15,089

This table shows the Balancing Seat calculations with a 50% Riding Seat threshold.

Adjusted # of Full Partial # of Partial National Count Count Count Party Vote Balancing Balancing Balancing Count Seats Seat Votes Seats

Liberal -4,530* 0 0 0

Conservative 389,144 8 33,280 1

New Democratic Party 411,961 9 11,614 0

Bloc Quebecois -274,697* 0 0 0

Green 582,247 13 3,968 0

Libertarian 1,949 0 1,949 0

Christian Heritage Party 40,335 0 40,335 1

Marxist-Leninist 8,696 0 8,696 0

Marijuana Party 33,276 0 33,276 1

All other parties & independents 89,267 0 15,089 1

Total Balancing Votes 1,556,875 (sum of all Party Unused Votes)

Votes per Balancing Seat 44,483 (divide by 35, then add 1)

# of Partial Count Balancing Seats 4 (34 - # of Full Count Balancing Seats)

* As the initial Adjusted National Vote Count for the Liberals and BQ was negative, their Adjusted National Vote Count is set to 0.

Appendix C: MP to Electoral District Breakdown for the 2015 Federal Election

Candidate Status in Single Vote Proportional Analysis Candidate Status with 60% Threshold for Riding Seats Total in actual Election Full Count Partial Count No Riding Regional Balancing Balancing Seat

Elected 48 184 16 4 86 338

Not elected 0 106 17 1 124

338 38 376

Newfoundland and Labrador

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 10001 Ken McDonald L 10001 x x

10002 Judy M. Foote ** L 10002 x x

10003 Scott Simms ** L 10003 x x

10004 Yvonne Jones ** L 10004 x x

10005 Gudie Hutchings L 10005 x x

Nick Whalen L x 10006 Jack Harris ** NDP 10006 x

Seamus O'Regan L 10007 x x 10007 Ryan Cleary ** NDP x

Prince Edward Island

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 11001 Lawrence MacAulay ** L 11001 x x

Sean Casey ** L x 11002 Joe Byrne NDP 11002 x

Bobby Morrissey L x 11003 Gail Shea ** C 11003 x

Wayne Easter ** L 11004 x x 11004 Lynne Lund G x

Nova Scotia

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 12001 Rodger Cuzner ** L 12001 x x 12002 Sean Fraser L x x Fred DeLorey C 12002 x 12003 Bill Casey L 12003 x x Scott Armstrong ** C 12008 x 12004 Darren Fisher L 12004 x x 12005 Andy Fillmore L x Megan Leslie ** NDP 12005 x 12006 Geoff Regan ** L 12006 x x 12007 Scott Brison ** L 12007 x x 12008 Darrell Samson L x 12009 Bernadette Jordan L x 12010 Mark Eyking ** L 12010 x x 12011 Colin Fraser L 12011 x x Arnold LeBlanc C 12009 x

New Brunswick

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 13001 Serge Cormier L x Jason Godin NDP 13001 x 13002 Dominic LeBlanc ** L 13002 x x 13003 Matt DeCourcey L 13003 x x Mary Lou Babineau G x 13004 Alaina Lockhart L x Rob Moore ** C 13004 x 13005 René Arseneault L 13005 x x 13006 Pat Finnigan L 13006 x x 13007 Ginette Petitpas Taylor L 13007 x x 13008 Karen Ludwig L x John Williamson ** C 13008 x 13009 Wayne Long L x AJ Griffin NDP 13009 x 13010 TJ Harvey L x Richard Bragdon C 13010 x

Quebec

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 24001 Romeo Saganash ** NDP x x Pierre Dufour L 24001 x 24002 Christine Moore ** NDP 24002 x x Yvon Moreau BQ 24035 x 24003 Mélanie Joly L x Maria Mourani ** NDP 24003 x 24004 Angelo Iacono L 24004 x x 24005 Stéphane Lauzon L 24005 x x 24006 Rémi Massé L 24006 x x Kédina Fleury-Samson BQ 24026 x 24007 Maxime Bernier ** C 24007 x x 24008 Alupa Clarke C x Raymond Côté ** NDP 24008 x 24009 Louis Plamondon ** BQ 24009 x x 24010 Steven Blaney ** C 24010 x x 24011 Matthew Dubé ** NDP 24011 x x Yves Lessard BQ 24067 x 24012 Ruth Ellen Brosseau ** NDP 24012 x x 24013 Ramez Ayoub L 24013 x x 24014 Xavier Barsalou-Duval BQ x JiCi Lauzon G x 24015 Emmanuel Dubourg ** L x 24016 Denis Paradis L 24016 x x 24017 Alexandra Mendès L 24017 x x 24018 Guy Caron ** NDP 24018 x x 24019 Pierre Paul-Hus C 24019 x x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 24020 Sylvie Boucher C x Jean-Roger Vigneau L 24020 x 24021 Brenda Shanahan L x 24022 Denis Lemieux L 24022 x x Dany Morin ** NDP 24032 x 24023 Marie-Claude Bibeau L x France Bonsant BQ 24023 x 24024 Anju Dhillon L x Isabelle Morin ** NDP 24024 x 24025 François Choquette ** NDP 24025 x x 24026 Diane Lebouthillier L x 24027 Steven MacKinnon L 24027 x x 24028 Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet ** NDP x Simon Marchand BQ 24028 x 24029 Pablo Rodriguez L 24029 x x 24030 Greg Fergus L x Nycole Turmel ** NDP 24030 x 24031 Gabriel Ste-Marie BQ x x Michel Bourgeois L 24031 x 24032 Karine Trudel NDP x 24033 Mario Beaulieu BQ 24033 x x Ève Péclet ** NDP 24015 x 24034 Jean-Claude Poissant L 24034 x x 24035 Denis Lebel ** C x 24036 Francis Scarpaleggia ** L 24036 x x 24037 David Lametti L x 24038 David Graham L x 24039 Hélène Laverdière ** NDP 24039 x x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status Gilles Duceppe BQ 24037 x 24040 Fayçal El-Khoury L 24040 x x 24041 Sherry Romanado L x 24042 Jacques Gourde ** C 24042 x x 24043 Pierre Nantel ** NDP 24043 x x Denis Trudel BQ 24041 x 24044 Joël Lightbound L 24044 x x 24045 Gérard Deltell C 24045 x x 24046 Marilène Gill BQ 24046 x x 24047 Luc Berthold C x David Berthiaume L 24047 x 24048 Simon Marcil BQ 24048 x x Mylène Freeman ** NDP 24062 x 24049 Michel Picard L 24049 x x Djaouida Sellah ** NDP 24014 x 24050 Luc Thériault BQ 24050 x x 24051 Bernard Généreux C x Marie-Josée Normand L 24051 x 24052 Anthony Housefather L x Robert Libman ** C 24052 x 24053 Marc Garneau ** L 24053 x x 24054 Tom Mulcair ** NDP 24054 x x 24055 Justin Trudeau ** L 24055 x x 24056 Frank Baylis L 24056 x x 24057 William Amos L 24057 x x 24058 Joël Godin C 24058 x x 24059 Jean-Yves Duclos L x NDP 24059 x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 24060 Monique Pauzé BQ 24060 x x 24061 Alain Rayes C x Myriam Beaulieu NDP 24061 x 24062 Linda Lapointe L x 24063 Rhéal Fortin BQ 24063 x x Pierre Dionne Labelle ** NDP 24038 x 24064 Alexandre Boulerice ** NDP 24064 x x 24065 Yves Robillard L x Marie-Josée Lemieux NDP 24065 x Patrice Jasmin-Tremblay BQ 24078 x 24066 Brigitte Sansoucy NDP x Michel Filion BQ 24066 x 24067 Jean Rioux L x 24068 Stéphane Dion ** L 24068 x x 24069 Nicola Di Iorio L 24069 x x 24070 François-Philippe L 24070 x x Champagne 24071 Anne Minh-Thu Quach ** NDP 24071 x x Claude DeBellefeuille BQ 24021 x 24072 Pierre Breton L 24072 x x 24073 Pierre-Luc Dusseault ** NDP 24073 x x 24074 Peter Schiefke L 24074 x x 24075 Michel Boudrias BQ x Charmaine Borg ** NDP 24075 x 24076 Robert Aubin ** NDP 24076 x x 24077 Marc Miller L 24077 x x 24078 Eva Nassif L x

Ontario

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 35001 Mark Holland L 35001 x x 35002 Carol Hughes ** NDP x x 35003 Leona Alleslev L 35003 x x Costas Menegakis ** C 35065 x 35004 John Brassard C 35004 x x 35005 Alex Nuttall C x Brian Tamblyn L 35005 x 35006 Neil Ellis L 35006 x x 35007 Nathaniel Erskine-Smith L 35007 x x 35008 Ramesh Sangha L 35008 x x Bal Gosal ** C 35010 x 35009 Raj Grewal L 35009 x x 35010 Ruby Sahota L x 35011 Sonia Sidhu L 35011 x x 35012 Kamal Khera L 35012 x x 35013 Phil McColeman ** C x Marc Laferriere NDP 35013 x 35014 Larry Miller ** C 35014 x x 35015 Karina Gould L 35015 x x 35016 Bryan May L 35016 x x 35017 Dave Van Kesteren ** C x Katie Omstead L 35017 x 35018 Julie Dzerowicz L x Andrew Cash ** NDP 35018 x 35019 Yasmin Ratansi L 35019 x x 35020 Geng Tan L x Joe Daniel ** C 35020 x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 35021 Rob Oliphant L 35021 x x 35022 David Allan Tilson ** C x x Ed Crewson L 35022 x 35023 Erin O'Toole ** C 35023 x x 35024 Marco Mendicino L 35024 x x Joe Oliver ** C 35081 x 35025 Karen Louise Vecchio C 35025 x x 35026 Tracey Ramsey NDP x x Jeff Watson ** C 35026 x 35027 Borys Wrzesnewskyj L x Ted Opitz ** C 35027 x 35028 James Maloney L 35028 x x 35029 Kirsty Duncan ** L 35029 x x 35030 David Sweet ** C 35030 x x 35031 Francis Drouin L 35031 x x 35032 Lloyd Longfield L 35032 x x Gord Miller G x 35033 Diane Finley ** C x Joan Mouland L 35033 x 35034 Jamie Schmale C 35034 x x 35035 David Christopherson ** NDP 35035 x x 35036 Bob Bratina L 35036 x x 35037 Scott Duvall NDP x Al Miles C 35037 x 35038 Filomena Tassi L 35038 x x 35039 Mike Bossio L 35039 x x 35040 Ben Lobb ** C 35040 x x Allan Thompson L 35083 x 35041 Karen McCrimmon L 35041 x x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 35042 Bob Nault L x Howard Hampton NDP 35042 x Greg Rickford ** C 35105 x 35043 Deb Schulte L 35043 x x 35044 Mark Gerretsen L 35044 x x 35045 Raj Saini L 35045 x x 35046 Harold Albrecht ** C x 35047 Marwan Tabbara L x Marian Gagné C 35047 x 35048 Bev Shipley ** C 35048 x x 35049 Scott Reid ** C 35049 x x 35050 Gord Brown ** C 35050 x x 35051 Irene Mathyssen ** NDP 35051 x x 35052 Peter Fragiskatos L 35052 x x 35053 Kate Young L x Ed Holder ** C 35053 x 35054 Jane Philpott L x Paul Calandra ** C 35054 x 35055 John McCallum ** L 35055 x x 35056 Bob Saroya C 35056 x x 35057 Lisa Raitt ** C x x Azim Rizvee L 35057 x 35058 Omar Alghabra L 35058 x x 35059 Peter Fonseca L 35059 x x 35060 Iqra Khalid L 35060 x x 35061 Sven Spengemann L x Stella Ambler ** C 35061 x 35062 Navdeep Bains L 35062 x x 35063 Gagan Sikand L x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status Brad Butt ** C 35063 x 35064 Chandra Arya L 35064 x x Andy Wang C 35075 x 35065 Kyle Peterson L x 35066 Vance Badawey L x Malcolm Allen ** NDP 35066 x 35067 Rob Nicholson ** C 35067 x x 35068 Dean Allison ** C 35068 x x 35069 Marc G. Serré L x Claude Gravelle ** NDP 35069 x 35070 Anthony Rota L 35070 x x 35071 Kim Rudd L x Adam Moulton C 35071 x 35072 John Oliver L 35072 x x 35073 Pam Damoff L x Effie Triantafilopoulos C 35073 x 35074 Colin Carrie ** C x Mary Fowler NDP 35074 x 35075 Catherine Mary McKenna L x Paul Dewar ** NDP x 35076 Andrew Leslie L 35076 x x Royal Galipeau ** C 35078 x 35077 David McGuinty ** L 35077 x x 35078 Mauril Bélanger ** L x 35079 Anita Vandenbeld L 35079 x x 35080 Dave MacKenzie ** C 35080 x x Zoe Kunschner NDP 35046 x 35081 Arif Virani L x Peggy Nash ** NDP x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 35082 Tony Clement ** C 35082 x x 35083 John Nater C x 35084 Maryam Monsef L 35084 x x 35085 Jennifer O'Connell L 35085 x x 35086 Cheryl Gallant ** C 35086 x x 35087 Majid Jowhari L x 35088 Pierre Poilievre C x x Chris Rodgers L 35088 x 35089 Chris Bittle L 35089 x x 35090 Carolyn Bennett ** L 35090 x x 35091 Marilyn Gladu C x Jason Wayne McMichael NDP 35091 x 35092 Terry Sheehan L 35092 x x Bryan Hayes ** C 35107 x 35093 Arnold Chan ** L 35093 x x Bin Chang C 35094 x 35094 Salma Zahid L x Katerina Androutsos Lbtrn. x 35095 John McKay ** L 35095 x x 35096 Shaun Chen L x Ravinder Malhi C 35096 x 35097 Gary Anandasangaree L 35097 x x 35098 Bill Blair L 35098 x x 35099 Kellie Leitch ** C 35099 x x 35100 Bruce Stanton ** C 35100 x x 35101 Adam Vaughan L 35101 x x 35102 Guy Lauzon ** C 35102 x x 35103 Paul Lefebvre L 35103 x x 35104 Peter Kent ** C 35104 x x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 35105 Don Rusnak L x 35106 Patty Hajdu L 35106 x x Bruce Hyer ** G x 35107 Charlie Angus ** NDP 35002 x x 35108 Bill Morneau L 35108 x x 35109 Julie Dabrusin L x Craig Scott NDP 35109 x 35110 Chrystia Freeland ** L x Jennifer Hollett NDP 35110 x 35111 Francesco Sorbara L 35111 x x Julian Fantino ** C 35087 x 35112 Bardish Chagger L 35112 x x 35113 Michael Chong ** C 35113 x x 35114 Celina Caesar-Chavannes L 35114 x x 35115 Ali Ehsassi L 35115 x x 35116 Cheryl Hardcastle NDP x x Frank Schiller L 35116 x 35117 Brian Masse ** NDP 35117 x x 35118 Michael Levitt L x Mark Adler ** C 35118 x 35119 Peter Van Loan ** C 35119 x x 35120 Ahmed Hussen L x Mike Sullivan ** NDP 35120 x 35121 Judy Sgro ** L 35121 x x

Manitoba

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 46001 Larry Maguire ** C x x Jodi Wyman L 46001 x 46002 Doug Eyolfson L x Steven Fletcher ** C 46002 x 46003 Niki Ashton ** NDP 46003 x x Rebecca Chartrand L 46004 x 46004 Robert Sopuck ** C x x 46005 Daniel Blaikie NDP 46005 x x 46006 MaryAnn Mihychuk L x Jim Bell C 46006 x 46007 Candice Bergen ** C 46007 x x 46008 Ted Falk ** C 46008 x x 46009 Dan Vandal L 46009 x x François Catellier C 46011 x 46010 James Bezan ** C 46010 x x 46011 Robert-Falcon Ouellette L x 46012 Kevin Lamoureux ** L 46012 x x 46013 Terry Duguid L 46013 x x 46014 Jim Carr L 46014 x x

Saskatchewan

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 47001 Gerry Ritz ** C 47001 x x 47002 David Anderson ** C 47002 x x 47003 Georgina Jolibois NDP 47003 x x Lawrence Joseph L 47006 x 47004 Kelly Block ** C 47004 x x 47005 Tom Lukiwski ** C x x Dustan Hlady NDP 47005 x 47006 Randy Hoback ** C x x 47007 Erin Weir NDP 47007 x x 47008 Andrew Scheer ** C 47008 x x 47009 Ralph Goodale ** L 47009 x x 47010 Kevin Waugh C 47010 x x Tracy Muggli L 47011 x 47011 Brad Trost ** C x 47012 Sheri Benson NDP 47012 x x 47013 Robert Gordon Kitchen C 47013 x x 47014 Cathay Wagantall C 47014 x x

Alberta

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 48001 Blake Richards ** C 48001 x x 48002 Kevin Sorenson ** C 48002 x x 48003 Martin Shields C 48003 x x 48004 Kent Hehr L 48004 x x Joan Crockatt ** C x 48005 Len Webber C 48005 x x 48006 Deepak Obhrai ** C 48006 x x 48007 Stephen J. Harper ** C 48007 x x 48008 Jason Kenney ** C 48008 x x 48009 Michelle Rempel ** C 48009 x x 48010 Pat Kelly C 48010 x x 48011 Tom Kmiec C 48011 x x 48012 Ron Liepert C 48012 x x 48013 Darshan Singh Kang L 48013 x x 48014 Randy Boissonnault L 48014 x x 48015 Kerry Diotte C x Janis Irwin NDP 48015 x 48016 Ziad Aboultaif C x x Sukhdev Aujla L 48016 x 48017 Amarjeet Sohi L 48017 x x 48018 Matt Jeneroux C 48018 x x 48019 Linda Duncan ** NDP 48019 x x 48020 Kelly McCauley C 48020 x x 48021 Mike Lake ** C 48021 x x 48022 John Barlow ** C 48022 x x 48023 David Yurdiga ** C 48023 x x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 48024 Chris Warkentin ** C 48024 x x 48025 Shannon Stubbs C 48025 x x 48026 Rachael Harder C x x Mike Pyne L 48026 x 48027 Jim Hillyer ** C 48027 x x 48028 Arnold Viersen C 48028 x x 48029 Earl Dreeshen ** C 48029 x x 48030 Blaine Calkins ** C 48030 x x 48031 Michael Cooper C 48031 x x 48032 Garnett Genuis C 48032 x x 48033 Rona Ambrose ** C 48033 x x 48034 Jim Eglinski ** C 48034 x x

British Columbia

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 59001 Ed Fast ** C 59001 x x 59002 Terry Beech L 59002 x x 59003 Kennedy Stewart ** NDP 59003 x x 59004 Todd Doherty C x Tracy Calogheros L 59004 x 59005 Dan Albas ** C 59005 x x 59006 Mark Strahl ** C 59006 x x 59007 John Aldag L 59007 x x Rebecca Smith NDP 59016 x 59008 Ron McKinnon L x Douglas Horne C 59008 x 59009 Gord Johns NDP 59009 x x John Duncan ** C 59018 x Glenn Sollitt G x 59010 Alistair MacGregor NDP x x Luke Krayenhoff L 59010 x Fran Hunt-Jinnouchi G x 59011 Carla Qualtrough L 59011 x x 59012 Ken Hardie L 59012 x x 59013 Cathy McLeod ** C x Steve Powrie L 59013 x 59014 Stephen Fuhr L 59014 x x 59015 Wayne Stetski NDP 59015 x x 59016 Mark Warawa ** C x x 59017 Jati Sidhu L 59017 x x 59018 Sheila Malcolmson NDP x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status Paul Manly G x 59019 Peter Julian ** NDP 59019 x x 59020 Mel Arnold C 59020 x x 59021 Jonathan Wilkinson L 59021 x x Andrew Saxton ** C 59037 x Claire Martin G x 59022 Dan Ruimy L x Bob D'Eith NDP 59022 x 59023 Fin Donnelly ** NDP x x Tim Laidler C 59023 x 59024 Bob Zimmer ** C 59024 x x 59025 Alice Wong ** C 59025 x x 59026 Randall Garrison ** NDP x David Merner L 59026 x Frances Litman G x 59027 Elizabeth May ** G 59027 x x 59028 Nathan Cullen ** NDP 59028 x x 59029 Richard Cannings NDP 59029 x x 59030 Dianne Lynn Watts C 59030 x x 59031 Joe Peschisolido L 59031 x x 59032 Randeep Sarai L x Jasbir Sandhu ** NDP 59032 x 59033 Sukh Dhaliwal L 59033 x x 59034 Hedy Fry ** L 59034 x x 59035 Jenny Kwan NDP 59035 x x Wes Regan G x 59036 Jody Wilson-Raybould L x Erinn Broshko C 59036 x

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 59037 Rachel Blaney NDP x x 59038 Don Davies ** NDP x x 59039 Joyce Murray ** L 59039 x x 59040 Harjit S. Sajjan L 59040 x x Wai Young ** C 59038 x 59041 Murray Rankin ** NDP 59041 x x Jo-Ann Roberts G x 59042 Pam Goldsmith-Jones L 59042 x x Ken Melamed G x

Yukon Territory

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 60001 Larry Bagnell L 60001 x x

Northwest Territories

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 61001 Michael McLeod L 61001 x x

Nunavut

Electoral By-election Election Candidate Party Riding Region Full Partial District El. District Status 62001 Hunter Tootoo L 62001 x x

Appendix D: 338 Electoral Districts to Region Mapping 2015 Federal Election

Region Electoral Districts

NL - 1 10001 10006 10007

NL - 2 10002 10003

NL - 3 10004 10005

PEI - 1 11001 11002

PEI - 2 11003 11004

NS - 1 12001 12010

NS - 2 12002 12003 12008

NS - 3 12004 12005 12006

NS - 4 12007 12009 12011

NB - 1 13001 13005

NB - 2 13006 13010

NB - 3 13002 13004 13007

NB - 4 13003 13008 13009

QC - 1 24001 24002 24035

QC - 2 24027 24030 24057

QC - 3 24005 24038 24063

QC - 4 24013 24048 24062

QC - 5 24004 24060 24075

QC - 6 24021 24071 24074

QC - 7 24011 24034 24067

QC - 8 24016 24023 24073

QC - 9 24025 24066 24072

QC - 10 24017 24041 24043

QC - 11 24009 24014 24049

QC - 12 24006 24018 24026

QC - 13 24007 24010 24051

QC - 14 24042 24047 24061

QC - 15 24024 24036 24056

QC - 16 24040 24065 24078

QC - 17 24003 24055 24068

QC - 18 24052 24053 24054

QC - 19 24037 24039 24077

QC - 20 24028 24064 24069

QC - 21 24015 24029 24033

QC - 22 24012 24031 24050

QC - 23 24058 24070 24076

QC - 24 24044 24045 24059

QC - 25 24008 24019 24020

QC - 26 24022 24032 24046

ON - 1 35031 35088 35102

ON - 2 35076 35077 35078

ON - 3 35064 35075 35079

ON - 4 35041 35049 35086

ON - 5 35039 35044 35050

ON - 6 35006 35071 35084

ON - 7 35023 35074 35114

ON - 8 35001 35054 35085

ON - 9 35003 35056 35065

ON - 10 35055 35104 35115

ON - 11 35009 35087 35111

ON - 12 35008 35010 35062

ON - 13 35095 35096 35097

ON - 14 35093 35094 35098

ON - 15 35019 35020 35021

ON - 16 35007 35108 35109

ON - 17 35090 35101 35110

ON - 18 35018 35024 35081

ON - 19 35027 35028 35029

ON - 20 35118 35120 35121

ON - 21 35004 35043 35119

ON - 22 35011 35012 35063

ON - 23 35058 35059 35061

ON - 24 35060 35072 35073

ON - 25 35032 35057 35113

ON - 26 35015 35030 35038

ON - 27 35035 35036 35037

ON - 28 35066 35067 35089

ON - 29 35013 35033 35068

ON - 30 35016 35046 35080

ON - 31 35051 35052 35053

ON - 32 35017 35048 35091

ON - 33 35026 35116 35117

ON - 34 35025 35040 35083

ON - 35 35045 35047 35112

ON - 36 35014 35022 35099

ON - 37 35005 35082 35100

ON - 38 35034 35070

ON - 39 35069 35103

ON - 40 35002 35092 35107

ON - 41 35042 35105 35106

MB - 1 46003 46004 46010

MB - 2 46001 46007 46008

MB - 3 46002 46013 46014

MB - 4 46005 46006 46012

MB - 5 46009 46011

SK - 1 47010 47011 47012

SK - 2 47007 47008 47009

SK - 3 47002 47005 47013

SK - 4 47003 47006 47014

SK - 5 47001 47004

AB - 1 48003 48026 48027

AB - 2 48007 48008 48011

AB - 3 48004 48005 48012

AB - 4 48006 48009 48013

AB - 5 48001 48010 48022

AB - 6 48021 48029 48030

AB - 7 48024 48028 48034

AB - 8 48017 48018 48019

AB - 9 48014 48015 48020

AB - 10 48002 48023 48025

AB - 11 48031 48033

AB - 12 48016 48032

BC - 1 59026 59027 59041

BC - 2 59009 59010 59018

BC - 3 59004 59024 59028

BC - 4 59013 59015 59020

BC - 5 59005 59014 59029

BC - 6 59006 59017 59022

BC - 7 59021 59037 59042

BC - 8 59001 59007 59016

BC - 9 59011 59030 59033

BC - 10 59008 59012 59032

BC - 11 59002 59019 59023

BC - 12 59003 59025 59031

BC - 13 59035 59038 59040

BC - 14 59034 59036 59039

YT - 1 60001

NT - 1 61001

NU - 1 62001

Appendix E: 308 Electoral Districts to Region Mapping 2011, 2008, 2006 & 2004 Federal Elections

Region Electoral Districts

NL - 1 10001 10006 10007

NL - 2 10002 10005

NL - 3 10003 10004

PEI - 1 11001 11002

PEI - 2 11003 11004

NS - 1 12001 12010

NS - 2 12002 12007 12008

NS - 3 12003 12004 12005

NS - 4 12006 12009 12011

NB - 1 13001 13005

NB - 2 13002 13004 13007

NB - 3 13003 13008 13009

NB - 4 13006 13010

QC - 1 24001 24046 24060

QC - 2 24020 24023 24050

QC - 3 24004 24030 24059

QC - 4 24043 24053 24071

QC - 5 24006 24015 24073

QC - 6 24027 24045 24049

QC - 7 24032 24033 24057

QC - 8 24044 24066 24075

QC - 9 24024 24029 24031

QC - 10 24011 24062 24065

QC - 11 24047 24048 24061

QC - 12 24002 24003 24040

QC - 13 24009 24022 24067

QC - 14 24021 24028 24035

QC - 15 24012 24064 24074

QC - 16 24018 24063 24069

QC - 17 24010 24017 24070

QC - 18 24042 24054 24055

QC - 19 24008 24025 24072

QC - 20 24037 24051 24068

QC - 21 24013 24038 24052

QC - 22 24005 24034 24036

QC - 23 24007 24014 24058

QC - 24 24016 24026 24039

QC - 25 24019 24041 24056

ON - 1 35090 35091

ON - 2 35035 35092

ON - 3 35002 35079 35088

ON - 4 35056 35057 35069

ON - 5 35026 35034 35070

ON - 6 35013 35046 35078

ON - 7 35021 35101 35102

ON - 8 35020 35028 35067

ON - 9 35042 35043 35044

ON - 10 35037 35038 35039

ON - 11 35003 35009 35011

ON - 12 35054 35076 35097

ON - 13 35032 35033 35055

ON - 14 35010 35030 35031

ON - 15 35018 35027 35098

ON - 16 35004 35085 35086

ON - 17 35053 35059 35096

ON - 18 35006 35007 35008

ON - 19 35049 35050 35060

ON - 20 35047 35048 35051

ON - 21 35022 35023 35024

ON - 22 35045 35075 35089

ON - 23 35015 35068 35077

ON - 24 35103 35105 35106

ON - 25 35017 35019 35100

ON - 26 35093 35094 35095

ON - 27 35005 35016 35084

ON - 28 35080 35081 35082

ON - 29 35001 35072 35083

ON - 30 35014 35061 35099

ON - 31 35029 35071 35104

ON - 32 35058 35073 35074

ON - 33 35036 35040 35041

ON - 34 35025 35052 35087

ON - 35 35063 35064 35065

ON - 36 35012 35062 35066

MB - 1 46003 46004 46010

MB - 2 46001 46007 46008

MB - 3 46002 46009 46013

MB - 4 46011 46014

MB - 5 46005 46006 46012

SK - 1 47009 47010 47011

SK - 2 47005 47012 47013

SK - 3 47007 47008 47014

SK - 4 47002 47004

SK - 5 47001 47003 47006

AB - 1 48001 48022 48028

AB - 2 48010 48024 48025

AB - 3 48019 48020 48021

AB - 4 48023 48026 48027

AB - 5 48002 48007 48008

AB - 6 48003 48006 48009

AB - 7 48004 48005

AB - 8 48011 48014 48018

AB - 9 48012 48013 48017

AB - 10 48015 48016

BC - 1 59004 59022 59025

BC - 2 59008 59024 59035

BC - 3 59014 59015 59031

BC - 4 59019 59021 59036

BC - 5 59023 59033 59034

BC - 6 59029 59030 59032

BC - 7 59002 59003 59017

BC - 8 59006 59016 59027

BC - 9 59009 59013 59028

BC - 10 59001 59005 59007

BC - 11 59010 59020 59026

BC - 12 59011 59012 59018

YT - 1 60001

NT - 1 61001

NU - 1 62001