PolarPredictNews #18 Antarctic summer 2021

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#18 PolarPredictNews AugustMay 20212021 Photo: Christian Paulmann, DWD

Sharing Data- Addicted to Antarctic Weather Driven Stories One of the stations in Antarctica manned year-round is the of Arctic Climate Neumayer III in Queen Maud Land (or Dronning Maudl Land Change DML). DML extends from 65°S to 85°S and from 20°W to 45°E and by Zack Labe covers an area of approximately 5 million km². Neumayer III is only reachable in austral summer, when supplies and new station Enhancing Capabilities of team members come by air or sea. But even at that time of the Numerical Weather Prediction year, the weather decides whether this is in the Arctic Tools of the Alertness possible or not. All the logistics are protected by the Project by Marvin Kähnert German Weather Service (DWD), which monitors the DML all year, either from Cape Town or, from late “Alaska of the Late 21st Century Will be November to early February, directly from Somewhat Different”Interview with Rick Neumayer III. The challenge for meteorologists: Thoman the whole of DML only has ten weather stations. To compensate, DWD uses, “It‘s Really the Whole Package” for example, data from daily radiosonde YOPP-endorsed! – The APPLICATE Project Interview with ascents and images from polar- APPLICATE PI Thomas Jung and project manager Luisa Cristini orbiting weather satellites. Read more on page 26. 1 Dear Colleagues,

International Coordination Office (ICO) Find more information at In this 18th issue of PolarPredictNews, it is great for Polar Prediction www.polarprediction.net to see Zack Labe’s story on Arctic science Art + Science communication through data visualizations (p. 5). As an experienced user of social media platforms, TOP STORY Content FEATURED IN THIS ISSUE: Zack proposes the many but yet underexplored Sharing Data-Driven Stories of Arctic THE POLAR PREDICTION FACTS WEEKS p. 30–31 ways for the polar community to display their data MOSAiC Leg 4 in Water Colours so that the public can easily follow the changes in Climate Change by Mayleen Schlund 01p. 5–8 by Zachary Labe by Amy MacFarlane p. 24–25 the polar regions and beyond.

PolarPredictNews – Call Marvin Kähnert’s idea for an article in NEW PUBLICATIONS for Polar Prediction “Art + PolarPredictNews emerged during the YOPP Relative Impact of Observations on Arctic Session of the Arctic Science Summit Week 02p. 9 Science” Weather Forecast earlier this year. Marvin who is a PhD candiate 19p. 42 New study by Roger Randriamampianina et al. collaborating with MET Norway has now Enhancing Capabilities of with data from the YOPP Special Observing summarized various interesting tools of the YOPP- Numerical Weather Prediction in Period endorsed Alertness project to enhance numerical 03 The IcePod Episodes Ten and p. 10–12 the Arctic NEW PUBLICATIONS weather prediction capabilities for the Arctic (p. 10). Tools of the Alertness Project Eleven 11 #10 Binoculars Are My Evaluation of Sea-Ice Thickness in the by Marvin Kähnert p. 32–33 In his article, Lorenzo Zampieri asks whether a Weapons with Laura Weddell Sea Schmidt 20p. 42–43 Qian Shi et al. look into monthly Antarctic sea- complex sea-ice model is better than a simple one Alaska’s Weather and Climate #11 Zoe and the Quiet ice data (p. 18). Based on his work at the Alfred Wegener Call for Change in Consciousness? Institute, he suggests strategies for successfully Ocean with Zoe Koenig NEW PUBLICATIONS 04p. 13–15 by Nikolata Petridi dealing with the ever-rising complexity in sea-ice The Regional Ice Ocean Prediction modelling. Support for the YOPP International “Alaska of the Late 21st 21 System v2: A Pan-Canadian Ocean Century Will be Somewhat Coordination Office p. 43 Analysis System I also recommend looking at the summary on 12p. 34 05p. 16–17 Different” Greg Smith et al. present the first pan- Alaska‘s current weather and climate trends (p. Interview with Rick Thoman Canadian operational ocean analysis system 13) and the interview with Rick Thoman (p. 16), All Across the Globe by Nikoleta Petridi “It‘s Really the who has fostered the dialogue with local Alaskan PPP Steering Group Meeting #12 Whole Package” communities for many years in support of decision- 13p. 34–35 by Jeff Wilson Is a Complex Sea-Ice Model Better 22p. 44–46 YOPP-endorsed! – The APPLICATE making. for Your Simulations? Project 06p. 18–20 by Lorenzo Zampieri Interview with APPLICATE PI Thomas Jung This spring, the YOPP-endorsed APPLICATE Virtual Meetings on Polar Prediction and project manager Luisa Cristini project came to an end – hence the ICO invited in the Southern Hemisphere us, i.e. our APPLICATE project manager Luisa The United Nations Ocean Decade 14p. 36 Cristini and myself as PI, to review the project in a Polar Context Upcoming (Mostly Online) Meetings efforts and success stories (p. 44). I would like 07p. 21 by Daniel Butkaitis 23p. 47 to use this opportunity to once again thank all The YOPP Southern Hemisphere project members for their manifold contributions to Task Team The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is a ma- On Kitchen Scales APPLICATE. 15p. 37–38 Interview with Task Team Lead jor international activity that was initiated by and Drifting Icebergs David Bromwich the World Meteorological Finally, I am most happy to invite the polar 08p. 22–23 – An Antarctic Diary Organization as a key component of the prediction community to the YOPP Final Summit, by Stefanie Arndt PPP-SERA Online Annual Meeting 2021 Polar Prediction Project (PPP). which is scheduled to take place from 1–4 May by Daniela Liggett The overarching goal of YOPP is to 2022 in Montreal, Canada, At the moment, we YOPP Final Summit 16p. 39 significantly advance our environmental are planning for an 1–4 May 2022 – prediction capabilities for the polar regions in-person meeting, 09p. 26–27 Save the Date Virtually Connected – The 2021 Online and beyond. to bring YOPP to a Arctic Science Summit Week As an internationally coordinated period of successful closure 17 intensive observing, modelling, prediction, Two New Contributions to Polar p. 40 by Clare Eyars, Mayleen Schlund and Kirstin and ensure a strong Werner verification, user-engagement, and legacy. Prediction Matters education activities involving various stake- 10p. 28–29 • Climate Service for the Chief Snowmaker Big in Japan but Virtual – Third Arctic holders, YOPP contributes to the Happy reading, • Addicted to Antarctic Weather Science Ministerial Meeting knowledge base needed to manage the Thomas Jung – What Queen Maud has to do 18p. 41 by Mayleen Schlund opportunities and risks that come with with Germany’s National Weather polar climate change. photo: Martina Buchholz/ Service DWD Alfred Wegener Institute TOP STORY PolarPredictNews #18 Art + Science FEATURED IN THIS ISSUE: 01 MOSAiC Leg 4 in Water Colours by Amy MacFarlane Sharing Data-Driven Stories of Arctic Climate Change by Amy MacFarlane, WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research and Mayleen Schlund, WMO WWRP by Zachary Labe, Colorado State University, @ZLabe International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction, Alfred Wegener Institute

During her first five-month trip during leg 3on Zachary Labe is a postdoctoral researcher In many ways, the Arctic is the board Polarstern, Amy MacFarlane, PhD student at Colorado State University in the canary in the coal mine. It’s a at the Snow and Avalanche Research Institute in Department of Atmospheric Science. region that is already experiencing Switzerland, extended her stay for another three His research considers signal-to-noise numerous direct and indirect months to join leg 4 of the MOSAiC campaign. problems in large-scale climate variability, effects of climate change, which Luckily, Amy did not abandon her previously especially related to the Arctic. He is also continue to bring new challenges pursued hobby and continued to paint to capture very passionate about improving science to local communities and their more moments from the MOSAiC adventure. communication, accessibility, and outreach surrounding environmental through engaging data visualizations. Zack Labe ecosystems. It’s also a warning for After collecting all my thoughts to return home, (photo: private). the rest of the planet as to the many I was asked to extend my stay for another three The Arctic is a region of dramatic change. interconnected ways that climate months. Of course, I did not hesitate to agree to It’s an area that continues to warm at a rate of change affects society and the entire continue working on Polarstern and unpacked nearly three times the global average temperature Earth system. While there have been an increasing my brushes and paint again, being excited to – otherwise known as Arctic amplification number of efforts to focus on sharing indigenous watercolour even more memories from the field. (Richter-Menge and Druckenmiller, 2020). But knowledge and perspective, the far-ranging impacts communicating the causes and consequences of of Arctic amplification still remain elusive to most During leg 4 of MOSAiC, the ice floe that once had Amy MacFarlane extended her stay during the MOSAiC field Arctic climate change is still rather difficult. people. Therefore, it’s really important that we start the character of a fortress had already disintegrated campaign for another leg (photo: Delphin Ruché). talking about it (even more). into a mosaic of ice floes. After Polarstern got For one thing, it’s a far and remote place, which conditions, is called “Miss Piggy”. The other one, back to the ice camp in July with the new team very few people have the opportunity to visit. One of the biggest challenges for science called “The Beluga” due to their iconic shape and of which I was a member now, I continued my In that sense, the Arctic almost holds an aura of communication (and climate change colour is used to measure vertical dispersion of research on seasonally Arctic snow changes, both mystery. But for others, the image of a polar bear communication) is that there is no right answer on aerosol particles in about 1 km height. physically and chemically. I returned to the regular floating on a tiny piece of sea ice across a wide- how to do it. Science communication can depend daily work schedule and relaxed in the evening open ocean is synonymous with the words global on the audience, the goal of the main message, the After spending eight months in total in the Arctic, hours by painting my watercolour drawings. In the warming. communication channel (e.g., social media, print/ I am currently busy working on the data collected field, it was always busy with so many teams and radio/tv media, blogs, public lectures, etc.), and and a side project which is measuring the impact observational stations which I tried to capture as some creativity. To my (initial) surprise, I’ve found of the expedition in the hope to highlight possible much as possible, with many little iconic situations. changes of future expeditions to improve their sustainability. The painting has taken a backseat In the picture (full size shown at page 22/23), I but I hope to return to these painting projects when have drawn the special moment when an interested communicating my scientific findings later in my polar bear came close to the ice edge. Polar bears research career. often visited us at night when no scientists were on the ice, which was lucky. But on a few occasions, If you want to explore my other picture creations just like the one drawn here, we had to evacuate the from leg 3, then check out the PolarPredictNews ice, leaving our instruments behind and retreating #15. to the ship. The polar bears were very curious about the infrastructure we had installed on the ice. Understandably since we had entered their home.

One of my favorite drawings are the balloons that hover above the ice floe. The big orange balloon that is used to attach Figure 1: Visual of decadal changes in September Arctic sea-ice thickness. Data are taken from the various instruments for measuring atmospheric Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS; Schweiger et al. 2011). 4 5 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

that data visualization can be a powerful form of change. Let me provide some examples. science communication that is both accessible and engaging for a broad audience. In particular, It is well-established that Arctic sea ice is both I believe that sharing visualizations of climate thinning and shrinking in extent. One way we can change indicators is an effective form of science show this information is by drawing a line. Perhaps communication that allows us to tell Arctic climate the line graph shows changes in Arctic sea-ice change stories and form conversations in real-time. extent during the annual minimum (September) over the satellite-era (1979 to 2020). While the Data Visualization is Storytelling line is obviously going down, it still retains the Just a few years ago, I started my literature review appearance of looking like a standard scientific of research surrounding Arctic climate change in graph. Instead, what if you show an actual visual the first year of graduate school. Paper after paper of the shrinking sea-ice cover broken down by showed how climate change can have impacts decade? Figure 1 is an example of allowing the Figure 2: Visual of daily locally (within the Arctic) and remotely (across appearance of the data to tell its own climate Arctic sea-ice extent in the Laptev Sea for each year the mid-latitudes and tropics). The issue change story, rather than focusing on the from 1979 to 2020. Data for communicating this fact is that abstract data measurements. While the exact are taken from the National scientific journal articles are not data values are still shown (in this case, Snow and Ice Data Center really accessible ways of sharing meters), the brighter colours focus on (NSIDC; Sea Ice Index, information to broad audiences. the overall decrease in sea-ice thickness v3). Moreover, the changes in the Arctic across time and space. The labels also were/are happening in real-time, and remove any jargon or acronyms (e.g., “SIT” data, it’s important to keep a few points in mind. Don’t Be such a Scientist the scientific process is not geared at all for sea-ice thickness or “m” for meters), and First, it’s important to consider the power of colour. One of the most important messages (and one for that type of short turnaround. As a solution, I the title provides an accessible and short caption to In telling stories about climate change, colour I have to keep reminding myself of) is to stop turned to Twitter – a place where breaking news is accompany the figure. However, the source of the can hold important meaning (e.g., red = warmer thinking like such a scientist. This is particularly condensed and shared at an incredible speed. My actual data itself can still be found (bottom right- temperatures, blue = colder temperatures). As relevant when considering how to design goal was to create visualizations of this complex hand corner), which helps to add to the credibility the scientific community transitions away from visualizations that are honest to the science, but data related to Arctic climate change, remove the of the visualization. Here, the graphic is really potentially misleading colour scales, there are a also understandable for all audiences. The “Climate jargon, and monitor it in real-time. To my surprise, interested in communicating the message of long- growing number of open-source colormap packages Spiral” and “Climate Stripes” (both designed by it has been a tremendous success. term changes in sea ice across the entire Arctic for the geosciences. “Scientific colour maps” Dr. Ed Hawkins) are striking examples of creative Ocean. and “cmocean” are two examples of colourmap ways to use complex climate change data for However, it took me a while to associate data resources that use perpetually-uniform scales storytelling. The Climate Spiral has been viewed visualization with storytelling. I have always been Figure 2 is another example of taking complex data and are designed to be readable for colour-vision by millions of people around the world, yet it still told that climate change communication should be and turning it into a story. This graphic highlights deficient people Thyng( et al., 2016; Crameri et al., uses the same data as a typical global mean surface done through a lens of human-driven stories and to the unprecedented lack of sea ice in the Laptev 2020). It’s important to consider colourmaps that temperature anomaly line graph found in most generally avoid data and lists of statistical facts. So Sea during the summer of 2020 as a result of the are both accessible and relevant for the data (e.g., all communication presentations (Hawkins et al., initially, I saw my visualizations of climate change persistent warmth over Eurasia. Here, colour [from do not choose a diverging scale of green and brown 2019). While it’s important to use your skills in indicators as just another form of throwing out facts purple (older years) to white (recent years)] is used for showing temperature anomalies). A recent evaluating and interpreting the raw scientific data, and abstract numbers. It also wasn’t a new idea to highlight the long-term trend of declining sea-ice article in EOS provides a great overview of the role still, don’t be such as scientist. either. Graphs of changes in measures like global extent in the Laptev Sea compared to anomalous of colour in scientific research and communication temperature and Arctic sea-ice extent have been conditions in a single year (2020 - red line). While (Zeller and Rogers, 2020). Improving Engagement through used for decades to provide observational evidence there already are some recent studies investigating Accessible and Open Science of climate change to the public (Christensen and this extreme event, graphics like this were shared In addition to colour, it’s important to consider Accessibility in data visualizations extends Nilsson, 2017). As a scientist, sharing data and across Twitter while the event was happening in design. Let the data tell its own story. Be creative, well beyond just appropriate colourmaps for graphs comes naturally to me. But I think we need real-time. Although this graph retains the same but keep it simple. A few easy changes that I have colourblindness. Some suggestions I have include to re-evaluate our way of thinking about data and scientific data (daily sea-ice extent from 1979 to found effective include decreasing the brightness removing jargon (e.g., use “human-caused” its incredible potential for engaging others in the 2020), the use of colour and use of storytelling of the axes (e.g., changing from black to gray), instead of “anthropogenic” climate change), scientific process. helped to attract widespread media attention and eliminating jargon (spell out SI units), and adding alternative text to images and animations, initiate more climate change conversations all removing unnecessary labels. There is also power placing labels directly with the data (e.g., mark Data visualization is a form of throughout last year. in animation, especially for Arctic climate change, 2020 next to the red line in Figure 2), using high storytelling. In particular, data- where the data are clearly showing long-term trends contrast colour ratios, avoiding flashing GIFs, driven stories can be a powerful Keep It Simple, But Be Bold in the land, ocean, cryosphere, and atmosphere. using figure titles as effective captions, avoiding form of communicating Arctic climate When re-thinking visualizations of scientific too many data overlays (e.g., complicated surface 6 7 PolarPredictNews #18 Art + Science PolarPredictNews #18

maps in meteorological analysis), and providing Index, Version 3. Boulder, Colorado USA. NSIDC: references/links to the original data. By including National Snow and Ice Data Center. doi: 10.7265/ information on the original data, we can educate N5K072F8 02 others on the scientific process and engage them PolarPredictNews – Call for Polar Prediction “Art & Science” with the data and methods of analysis. Again, to Hawkins, E., Fæhn, T., & Fuglestvedt, J. (2019). my (initial) surprise, I’ve found that many people The climate spiral demonstrates the power of The International Coordination As we would like to continue to are really interested in how climate change data is sharing creative ideas. Bulletin of the American Office for Polar Prediction and highlight artistic pieces resulting obtained and processed. Therefore, through sharing Meteorological Society, 100(5), 753-756. doi: the Association for Polar Early from the YOPP’s and PPP’s scientific additional context with our visualizations, we can 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0228.1 Career Scientists (APECS) are achievements, we warmly invite you get others involved and excited about science! inviting the polar prediction to share with us your creative output, Richter-Menge, J. & Druckenmiller, M. L. Eds., community to share creative or which we will consider for publication While many of my suggestions are related to 2020: The Arctic [in “State of the Climate in 2019“]. artistic renderings of polar prediction research in a future PolarPredictNews issue. Whether you output to be considered for publication in science communication, I also believe that Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,101 (8), S239–S285. doi: have already done something or always needed the PolarPredictNews, the newsletter for the Year of they extend to scientific research and journal 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0086.1 motivation, now is your chance to show it to your Polar Prediction. publications. By considering accessibility and colleagues. Be it a result of your latest field work the meaning of our data, we can improve the Schweiger, A., Lindsay, R., Zhang, J., Steele, The last four issues of PolarPredictNews have readability, dissemination, and interpretation M., Stern, H., & Kwok, R. (2011). Uncertainty had scientific artwork integrated into the design of graphs and maps in peer-reviewed studies. in modeled Arctic sea ice volume. Journal of of the newsletter. “Art & Science” connects polar This also can help improve the transparency, Geophysical Research: Oceans, 116(C8). doi: prediction-related science with the polar prediction reproducibility, and innovation in striving for a 10.1029/2011JC007084 community’s creative and artistic work. We, future of open science. the International Coordination Office for Polar Thyng, K. M., Greene, C. A., Hetland, R. D., Prediction (ICO), thereby aim to provide a platform Lastly, keep telling stories. Talking about climate Zimmerle, H. M., & DiMarco, S. F. (2016). True for the PPP community to share sides change is one of the easiest and most effective colors of oceanography: Guidelines for effective of their research that go beyond ways to aim for a better future. There are many and accurate colormap selection. Oceanography, pure science to involve impressions, resources, such as the National Snow and Ice 29(3), 9-13. doi: 10.5670/oceanog.2016.66 emotions and creative or aesthetic Data Center, OSI SAF, World Meteorological modes of displaying scientific results. Organization, and Polar Portal, that provide Zeller, S., & Rogers, D. (2020). Visualizing science: The platform offers a way to view the experience or an outcome of your newest model the visualizations and data of Arctic climate conditions How color determines what we see. Eos Trans. science from a slightly different angle, weather-forecasting skills of which you captured in in real-time. These can be useful starting points AGU, 101. doi: 10.1029/2020EO144330 which in some cases may make it even pencil, oil or photography – even if transferred into for data-driven stories. We can all create more accessible than it would be from knitwork – we are open to pretty much anything that our own climate change conversations reading a paper or grasping particular relates to your research contributing to improved by sharing simple and bold x-y plots. Arctic and Antarctic weather and sea-ice forecasts. visualizations. Please submit samples of your artwork along with Thomas Rackow’s melting sea-ice a short description of how it relates to your polar Find out more about Zack at stripes were published in the previous edition of prediction research and to YOPP in particular, https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/ PolarPredictNews. Other contributors have been in PDF format, to the International Coordination Taneil Uttal (Pieceful Pictures of the Day from Office for Polar Prediction, via email to office@ References MOSAiC Leg 2), Amy MacFarlane (Watercolour polarprediction.net. After a committee has reviewed Christensen, M., & Nilsson, A. Drawings from MOSAiC Leg 3), and Friederike your submission, we’ll get back to you with a E. (2017). Arctic sea ice and the Krüger and Thomas Rackow (The Drawn decision. communication of climate change. Distributed MOSAiC Network). You can find Popular Communication, 15(4), 249-268. doi: all issues of PolarPredictNews at https://www. 10.1080/15405702.2017.1376064 polarprediction.net/news/polarpredictnews/.

Crameri, F., Shephard, G. E., & Heron, P. J. (2020). The misuse of colour in science communication. Nature communications, 11(1), 1-10. doi: 10.1038/ s41467-020-19160-7 and

Fetterer, F., Knowles, K., Meier, W. N., Savoie, M.. Bay Baffin

and Windnagel, A. K. (2017, updated daily). Sea Ice Labrador Sea 8 9 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

2. Inspecting processes in the MUSC 03 1. Inspecting how the model advances single columns model from one time step to the next Enhancing Arctic NWP capabilities also includes Enhancing Capabilities of Numerical Weather Prediction in the Arctic – The essence of a weather forecasting model is to improving the representations of the model‘s Tools of the Alertness Project calculate changes in atmospheric variables such error-prone processes such as low-level fog (being by Marvin Kähnert, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research as temperature, pressure or wind over time. In our addressed by Teresa Valkonen of the Norwegian models, these changes can be divided into two main Meteorological Institute), or the stable boundary Norway’s YOPP-endorsed project Alertness Polar Prediction’s opportunities in terms of field contributions: model dynamics and model physics. layer (being tackled by Igor Esau of NERSC). For aims to improve AROME-Arctic, the weather campaigns, observations and modelling efforts. Model dynamics refers to the large-scale transport this, we employ MUSC (Modèle Unifié Simple forecast model which recently entered into The operational forecast systems AROME-Arctic of air masses by the wind, the model can fully Colonne), which is the single-column model service at MET Norway. As an operational form the methodological basis of the Alertness resolve. Model physics on the other hand represents (SCM) of the HARMONIE-AROME model. An convection-permitting model system dedicated project’s work. One of its dedicated aspects under processes such as turbulence, radiation or cloud SCM isolates a vertical column from the full, three- to the European Arctic, it is one of YOPP’s the supervision of Harald Sodemann (University physics, that are too small to be resolved by the dimensional model-system, but retains all of the core models. As part of a collaborated effort of Bergen) is to enhance the capabilities and model grid despite AROME-Arctic’s 2.5 km grid physics and algorithms. Since it only investigates within Alertness, PhD student Marvin diagnostics of AROME-Arctic. For this, spacing. As a consequence, these processes need to a single vertical column, the calculations are very Kähnert employs a be represented by simplified formulations, so-called fast, making MUSC an ideal tool for implementing number of tools to parameterizations. new physical parameterizations or conducting enhance Arctic NWP sensitivity tests. Figure 2 exemplifies how liquid capabilities. All of these parameterized processes contribute to precipitation is sensitive to a parameter buried e.g. temperature or wind change in our Many endeavours model. We refer to these contributions in the Arctic, as individual tendencies. Investigating from tourism to these tendencies enables targeted studies transportation to of the otherwise “hidden” activity and exploitation of natural interplay of the model’s physics. Figure resources require 1 demonstrates this utility. Shown on access to accurate the left is the physical tendency (sum weather forecasts. of all parameterization schemes) for Yet, numerical temperature close to the surface (the weather prediction lowest model level) during a day with (NWP) models major cloud formation. The physics generally display actively warm most of the model domain comparatively low (red shading). However, this warming is predictive skill at these not uniform, and distinct spatial patterns high latitudes. The emerge. These patterns can be attributed sparse conventional to environmental factors such as the observation network sea-ice edge (white line) or to model- over the ocean and internal factors. We found that boundary sea ice as well as layer types play an important role (Fig. the pronounced Figure 1: Physical tendency for temperature (left) of the lowest model level. Diagnosed planetary 1). Boundary layer types help the model impact of unresolved boundary layer (PBL) types in AROME-Arctic (right): I stable stratification, II dry convective, III to adjust its physical package towards processes (surface stratocumulus topped, IV shallow cumulus topped, V deep convection. Northern Scandinavia is the plethora of atmospheric regimes that fluxes, radiation, located in the bottom right corner, Svalbard is located near the middle of the model domain. White line is sea-ice edge (source: M. Kähnert). it needs to represent, such as a cloud- cloud microphysics) free winter night or an autumn storm. on Arctic weather Together with Wim de Rooy (Royal events pose particularly large challenges for members of the University of Bergen, the Nansen Netherlands Meteorological Institute), we numerical modelling. Norway’s YOPP-endorsed Environmental and Remote Sensing Center use the new perspective obtained from Alertness project, led by Jørn Kristiansen of the (NERSC), and the Norwegian Meteorological tendency output to investigate the impacts Norwegian Meteorological Institute and Marius Institute have teamed up to employ a variety of of a new boundary layer package. O. Jonassen (University Centre in Svalbard tools that permit deeper insight into the “inner UNIS), aims to tackle these key, specifically workings” of the NWP models. This article briefly Figure 2. Sensitivity of liquid precipitation to different saturation limit values Arctic challenges, while exploiting the Year of introduces these tools and their utility. in MUSC. Figure by Petter Ekrem (UiB). 10 11 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

within the parameterization schemes for cloud Such high-resolution output enables much more microphysics. Stephen Outten (NERSC) set up detailed process studies of the stable boundary MUSC as a virtual machine at the beginning of the layer and testing of the new parameterization 04 project, making it very accessible and easy to work scheme than would otherwise be possible. Alaska’s Weather and Climate - Call for Change in Consciousness? with, also for educational purposes. by Nikoleta Petridi, Kirstin Werner and Sara Pasqualetto, WMO WWRP International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction, Alfred Wegener Institute 3. Gaining high-resolution insight into the model with DDH Equipped with these tools, we are working on im- A number of severe storms struck Alaska’s the ongoing dramatic changes in northern North coasts in March 2021 – a cause for concern, America. He collaborates with organizations from according to many news articles. Climate the World Meteorological Organization and the and weather specialist Rick Thoman from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration the Alaskan Centre for Climate Assessment to private companies such as the World Climate & Policy (ACCAP) provides regular weather Service, and colleagues at the International Arctic briefings to inform aboutAlaska’s current Research Center. Together, they provide monthly weather and climate trends. and seasonal forecasts to the Alaskan community. For his online weather briefings, he puts complex Alaska is part of the polar and peripolar area. information from the latest climate and sea-ice Figure 3. Comparison of output provided by the DDH tool (left, x-axis in 75 seconds model time steps) against the conventional Climate change hits hard here, leading to predictions into a format that non-scientists can 1h-output interval on the right. Shown is relative humidity for the closest grid point to the Sodankylä measurement site. Y-axis imbalances in the natural system. In nature, shows height in meter (source: M. Kähnert). use to stay informed about the next few weeks’ everything has its own timeline – during spring, expected weather conditions. An important part the ice in the rivers breaks up, wildfires break of these briefings is his kick-off with last month’s When working with NWP models, end-users are proving high latitude weather forecasting. Yet our out in summer, and storms usually occur in fall weather conditions. He then compares them with normally provided with hourly to three-hourly methodology is by no means restricted to the HAR- and winter. During the last few decades, global the coming weeks’ forecast and historical data, output intervals. Even though today’s NWP MONIE-AROME model or to NWP in the Arc- climate changes have started to disrupt the natural looking for trends and general shifts in Alaska’s models internally calculate in time steps of about tic; but can be applied to other NWP models and balance, e.g. by shifting the onset of seasons or climate. 60 seconds or so, the sheer number of grid points geographical locations. A paper, demonstrating the changing their duration. At the same time, higher on a typical model grid (~10^8) makes it simply utility of the individual tendency output is currently temperatures and increased greenhouse gasses in Following Rick Thoman’s weather briefing in not feasible to store every single time step. The under review at Weather and Forecasting. the atmosphere pose a substantial threat, not only March, in which he envisioned a sustainable DDH- (diagnostics on horizontal domains) tool to the polar regions’ sea ice and glaciers, but also and safer Arctic, some important trends and key developed at Météo-France provides an elegant to nature in its messages are solution. It allows model output to be written for current state, summarized every single model time step within a specified its terrestrial below. sub-domain. This enables a highly detailed wildlife and investigation of process representations in the vegetation, Jumping full, three-dimensional model. In particular, the and the marine into the combination of such output with observations from fauna and Unknown? super-sites (such as the one in Sodankylä, Finland) phytoplankton – From Sea has great potential for validation and model inter- essential to Ice… comparison purposes. The tremendous increase in maintaining Sea ice is a detail the DDH tool achieves is demonstrated the global food vulnerable in Figure 3. DDH reveals much finer chain. element of structures in the development of Alaska’s relative humidity in the model for Rick Thoman environment, the Sodankylä measurement site. works at and it has the Alaskan changed Centre for dramatically Climate Alaska on a spring night (photo: Winfried Hoke) during recent Assessment years. As a & Policy natural regulator of temperature, moisture, food (ACCAP)at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. webs, and also many human activities, sea ice An Alaskan climate specialist by training, he is plays a vital role in the climate, economy and the one of the weather scientists trying to understand environment. According to Rick, “this February, 12 13 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

Pacific Ocean, marine heat waves and sea-ice loss culminated in the loss of the “cold pool” in the Bering Sea – a boundary for southern and northern species. This winter, sea surface temperatures have been above normal in the southern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska.

Figure 1: Daily But Where does all this Data Come from? Sea-Ice extent SNAP, the Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic from 1978- Planning, provides downscaled climatic data for 1979 to 2020- the areas around Alaska and Canada and is working 2021 in the together with the international Arctic Research Bering Sea. By Figure 2: Ed Hawkins’s warming stripes showing the average Rick Thoman Centre and the University of Alaska Fairbanks. monthly temperatures from 1895-2020 in Alaska The network makes use of various models and (source: Ed Hawkins). scenarios, usually extracting the average value. the average ice volume was the third lowest in the Polar Prediction Matters APPLICATE project in ). Still, artifacts and uncertainties do occur, which communities is an invaluable source of information. satellite era reconstruction from 1979 to 2021 ”. Not only do wildfires burn local habitats, they also available data and model improvement could limit. Often, it used to be the primary source of information Ice thickness has also been affected: during March affect air pollution and release greenhouse gasses. that not only local communities but also scientific 2021, ice thickness was substantially lower than Additional greenhouse gasses may originate through observations relied on. Many times, locals notice the long-term average, especially along northern permafrost melting in the heated soil layers. Listening to the Community, Listening to tiny changes in environmental conditions, which Greenland and the northern Canadian islands. As Nature are essential to their understanding and predicting mentioned in a report Rick Thoman and John Walsh More Heat Contributes to a Positive Communities who lived in and adapted to previous weather and ice conditions – changes a stranger published in 2019, the typical summer sea-ice Feedback Loop “normal” conditions have been facing drastic wouldn’t think of or wouldn’t even realize were extent in the Chukchi Sea, for example, was only Winter temperatures in Alaska have been rising since challenges these past few decades. Hunting and happening. But with ongoing climate changes, these 10% of what it was in the early 1980s, allowing for the 1970s. Thoman’s and Walsh’s report mentions traveling has become more and more difficult for early weather signs have become harder to read, a much longer period of open water. But more open that record temperatures have been observed in the indigenous people. Providing reliable and accurate such that improved forecast services become all the waters mean an extended period of heat exchange past five years that werewarmer than any prior year, forecasts for the upcoming season has become more important to the local communities instead. and circulation between the atmosphere and the with an average annual increase of 3 °C – 4 °C. At crucial to communities planning their daily routines. Fostering collaboration and communication between deep ocean, thereby amplifying the effect of sea-ice the same time, the number of extremely cold winter For locals, knowing (for example) when the sea local communities and forecasters can thus help to melting. “This recent winter’s ice-extent never got days has been decreased; during the past decade, ice will melt, or how thick it will be can be a vital; enhance dialogue about Alaskan weather forecast to the ‘normal’ values but was still well above the less than 30 days were extremely cold, compared during winter, sea-ice roads often are the only roads users’ requirements and wishes. minimum of 2017–2018 and 2018–2019”, explains to more than 40 days before 1960. Still, February, available. Rick Thoman in his March 2021 weather briefing. 2021, “was the coldest February in the thirty-year Ilarion K. Merculieff, founder and president of reference period from 1991 to 2021 in the center Traditional knowledge transferred from one the Global Centre for Indigenous Leadership and ACCAP, together with the University of Alaska and northern Alaska”. On the other hand, “the south generation to the next in local and Indigenous Lifeways, once said, “You can’t change the problems Fairbanks, developed a sea-ice atlas for Alaska and of Alaska, the lower Alaska Peninsula had among with the same consciousness that created the Arctic, showing sea-ice data from 1850 to the the warmest Februarys on record. The temperature the problems”. In this very same spirit, Rick present (http://www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/sea-ice- difference was dramatic with much of the mainland, Thoman translates scientific knowledge atlas). with southwest Alaska being kind of a battle zone. into accessible information that is easy to They had big flips from day-to-day temperatures but understand for everyone. Having done his …to Wildlife Fires at a monthly scale they evened out”. graduate work in Athabascan linguistics, But Alaska is a place of extremes, and so the concerns Thoman minimizes the gap between academia are not limited to sea-ice melting only. According to What about the Ocean? and the communities, strengthening local Alaska’s interagency fire management organization, Ocean warming has been altering the seas globally; collaborations. Following his example of the wildfire season has been extended by an entire Alaska is no exception. Sea surface temperatures are taking a somewhat non-traditional view of month, with a dramatically increased frequency rising annually, absorbing most of the heat resulting science can generate benefitial social and of large wildfires. According to the 2019 report from global warming. An example explained in scientific impact, bringing to Alaska the by Thoman and Walsh, the amount of smoke has the above-mentioned report is the so-called Pacific change it needs for a sustainable future. increased significantly in the country, with a mean “blob”, a pool of warm water that developed off of annual value of approximately 15 days of reduced Alaska in 2013 that expanded south until the end of For more see also the Polar Prediction visibility during the summer (see also a recent 2015, when it shut down, with devastating effects Figure 3: Annual average sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Alaska Matters blog published by Rick Thoman article on a wildfire study by the YOPP-endorsed on marine life. After this occurence in the Northern from 1900-2020. By Rick Thoman. and Gita Ljubicic in 2019. 14 15 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

you think people rely more on weather Do you envision any new opportunities 05 forecasts nowadays? arising along with the changing conditions? I think (hope?) that people and organizations in There are always opportunities, but the question “Alaska of the Late 21st Century Will Be Somewhat Different” – Alaska are gradually coming to realize that there is will be whether the benefits of new opportunities Interview with Rick Thoman much more information about weather and climate will accrue to outside interests or Arctic residents. Interview: Nikoleta Petridi, WMO WWRP International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction, that they can potentially use to help make decisions Increased opportunities for agriculture could Alfred Wegener Institute than is readily available on cell-phone apps. And, dramatically improve food security by reducing the that this applies to all time scales, from decisions reliance on foods produced far away and requiring In his work, Alaska climate many human and ecosystem activities regarding activities planned for today to costly long-distance shipping. Some changes will result in and weather expert Rick in the Arctic, but in large parts of decisions regarding infrastructure investments that mixed impacts: higher winter temperatures reduce Thoman bridges between Alaska and Canada there is less snow can be expected to remain in use into the 22nd heating costs for people but have compounding climate modeling, weather and data available now than there was 50 century. ecosystem effects. Less sea ice is already allowing sea-ice forecasting and Alaska years ago. This is the direct result for increasing commercial and industrial shipping communities. In our interview, of the automation of basic weather How do you see the future for Alaska? but may well contribute to increasing winter snows he shares his perspective on the observations and neglected by Alaska in the late 21st century will be, in some and more frequent rain-on-snow episodes, both of challenges and opportunities national agencies on replacing these ways, quite different than in the late 20th century. which can be costly for societies. to work with Alaskan important measurements. However, An economy based on crude oil extraction will be communities to support them citizen science participation can long gone, although large scale industrial mining Follow Rick @AlaskaWx on Twitter for regular in getting the weather and sea- bridge some of this gap and provide for metals will likely persist. A big unknown will be updates on Alaska’s weather and climate. ice information they need. information at the local scale that is the state of fisheries. And will tourism be as popular Photo: private impossible to obtain remotely, such if iconic features such as tidewater glaciers are Rick, you have been monitoring as sea-ice quality and stability. gone or inaccessible? One certainty, though, is that Alaska’s climate for the past few Alaska’s Indigenous peoples and cultures will still years and making seasonal forecasts. What changes worry you the most? What are the difficulties you face in your be here, adapting to the situation, as has been done Seasonal changes in sea-ice extent, thickness and work? for thousands of years. stability have already brought extraordinarily rapid RT: Difficulties fall into two categories. One is ecosystem changes to the Bering Sea and are poised having the types of climate and environmental to do the same in the Chukchi Sea. In the longer term, information and forecasts that communities say ocean acidification is going to be a big problem for they want and can use in their decision making. The Alaska and the Arctic. second category is the difficulty getting information to individuals and communities in rural areas, where What scientific work is, in your opinion, Internet connectivity is unreliable and has limited missing from Alaska and the peripolar bandwidth even when functioning. regions? One of the big uncertainties in climate projections What data do you use? Where would you is the role thawing permafrost and warming Arctic like to see improvement (modeling, data soils may play in the release of greenhouse gases assimilation, observations etc.)? (methane and carbon dioxide). As important, though, Remote sensing information from satellites and is the urgent need to bring together information from modern high-resolution computer model reanalysis different science disciplines into a holistic view of (such as the ERA5 from ECMWF/Copernicus) and the changes and the potential impacts to individuals, the data derived from them are vital for monitoring communities and businesses. Scientists are often ongoing and recent conditions. In Alaska and nearly hesitant to provide those kinds of syntheses until all of the Arctic, there are many fewer traditional in- “we know for sure”, but we all make decisions situ weather and climate observations than in the mid- everyday with incomplete and latitudes. This increases uncertain information, and Arctic the importance of change should be no different. the observations we do have. Snow How are the people information, such responding to your as depth and water forecasts? Have you noticed equivalent, is critical for a change in habits? – Do 16 17 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

06 Is a Complex Sea-Ice Model Better for Your Simulations? by Lorenzo Zampieri, Alfred Wegener Institute

In addition to satellite observations, in-situ ultimately through the exchange at the interfaces measurements or experiments in the lab, the between the sea ice, ocean, and atmosphere. study of sea ice is nowadays also carried out through the employment of sophisticated Improved Access to Computational mathematical models. The ultimate goal of these Resources models is to quantitatively simulate the behavior The development of numerical sea-ice models has of the sea ice, its evolution and its interactions been driven not only by the growing quality of with other components of the climate observations but also by the increasing availability system. Whether a complex model produces of computational resources for running the models better results than a simpler model remains an and for analysing the results. The first mature Figure 1: open question. Schematic repre- model of sea ice by Maykut & Untersteiner (1971) sentation of the dynamical and was too detailed and too sophisticated for the thermodynamical processes used When discussing the evolution of sea ice in computing capabilities available at the time and in the standard formulation of the Finite-volumE Sea ice ocean models, we cannot refrain from connecting major had to be simplified by Semtner (1976) so that it developments in sea-ice modeling to fundamental Model version 2 (FESOM2) could be employed over larger domains and for (credit: Lorenzo Zampieri and advances that have been made in the field of sea-ice climate applications. An energy-conserving multi- Martin Künsting, copyright: CC observations. The understanding of heat conduction layer sea-ice model for pan-Arctic setups was BY 4.0). in sea ice, which led to the first mature sea-ice not implemented until almost three decades later model by Maykut & Untersteiner (1971), would by Bitz & Lipscomb (1999). Nowadays, sea-ice Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) community As the first step, we equipped the unstructured not have been possible without the data collected simulations feature very high spatial resolutions global sea-ice and ocean model FESOM2 with during the International Geophysical Year in shows that it is unclear to what degree differences that reach the kilometer scale. between CMIP6, CMIP5 and CMIP3 sea-ice a set of physical parameterizations derived from 1957–58. Before the first satellite observations the single-column sea-ice model Icepack. The were available, the “Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint simulations are caused by better model physics How complex must a sea-ice model be? versus other changes in the forcing. simple 0-layer sea-ice and snow thermodynamics Experiment” (AIDJEX) – a series of experimental Despite many decades of model development have been replaced with a set of multi-layer campaigns carried out during the 1970s – laid efforts, the modeling community still has parameterizations that take the enthalpy and the foundation for understanding sea-ice motion In the field of subseasonal and seasonal sea-ice not agreed on the required degree of model forecasting, simple dynamical models exhibit salinity of the ice into account. The new system in the Arctic. This contributed to the formulation complexity needed to obtain good sea-ice can simulate prognostic thickness and floe-size of the first dynamical and thermodynamic model predictive skills comparable to, or even better numerical simulations. In simpler terms, there than, those of more complex forecast systems, distributions (also jointly), accounting for sea- of sea ice by Hibler (1979), featuring a viscous is still debate: Does a more physically detailed ice ridging and processes regulating the break- plastic (VP) sea-ice rheology. Observations from suggesting that the year-to-year variability, the skill sea-ice model formulation lead to better sea-ice of the atmospheric models and the quality of initial up and healing of sea-ice floes. A sophisticated the “Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic” (SHEBA) simulations? Some studies suggest that a more delta Eddington multi scattering solar radiation campaign added radiation to our understanding conditions dominate the variation in prediction sophisticated description of the sea-ice physics success. parameterization and three prognostic melt-pond of the interactions between sea ice and snow, leads to simulations that agree better with sea-ice schemes are also available. To fairly compare resulting in a series of more physically realistic observations. Others, however, fail to establish In the paper “Impact of Sea-Ice Model Complexity eventual improvements or drawbacks associated parameterizations being added to sea-ice models. a link between complex model formulations and with the changing model complexity, we optimized The recently concluded “Multidisciplinary on the Performance of an Unstructured-Mesh improved model performance. For Sea-Ice/Ocean Model under Different Atmospheric a subset of the parameter space of each tested drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic example, in the framework of the model configuration by applying a Green’s function Climate” (MOSAiC) – arguably the largest Arctic Forcings”, recently published open-access in Coupled Model Intercomparison the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth optimization technique. The results indicate that expedition in history – can be considered the next Project (CMIP), the Sea Ice Model a complex model formulation leads to better step on this pathway. MOSAiC was explicitly Systems, we investigate this open question by analysing a set of sea- agreement between the modeled and the observed designed to build a solid understanding of sea-ice sea-ice concentration and snow thicknesses while processes that will have a major impact on the ice simulations performed with a revised and improved sea-ice model differences are smaller for sea-ice thickness and future of sea-ice modeling. In this respect, future drift speed. However, the choice of the atmospheric modeling improvements are expected through the that features substantial modularity in terms of model complexity. forcing used as the boundary condition for the description of the snow layer on top of the sea ice, sea-ice model also impacts the agreement between the representation of its biochemical processes, and

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simulations and observations, with NCEP- assimilation of major scientific advances and a larger CFSR/CFSv2 being particularly beneficial for reach for our findings and developments. the simulated sea-ice concentration and ERA5 07 for sea-ice drift speed. Furthermore, the results More information: The United Nations Ocean Decade in A Polar Context indicate that the parameter calibration can better Zampieri, L. (2020). Sea-ice prediction across by Daniel Butkaitis, WMO WWRP International Coordination Office for Polar PredictionAlfred Wegener compensate for differences among atmospheric timescales and the role of model complexity, Institute forcings and for model deficiencies in a simpler Ph.D.Thesis, University of Bremen. https://doi. model setting (where sea ice has no heat capacity) org/10.26092/elib/446 The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Arctic stakeholders with a common agenda. compared to more realistic formulations with a Sustainable Development 2021–2030 (in brief: The Action Plan identifies several cross-cutting prognostic ice thickness distribution. Zampieri, L., Kauker, F., Fröhle, J., Sumata, H., “the Ocean Decade”) aims to foster scientific barriers to progress. These can be translated Hunke, E. C., & Goessling, H. F. (2021). Impact of and societal efforts toward sustainable ocean into the three different types of challenges the Modularity and Community sea-ice model complexity on the performance of an management in the coming years. To provide plan is structured around: i) research challenges In light of the previous considerations, we propose unstructured-mesh sea-ice/ocean model Arctic and Antarctic stakeholders with a shared concerning scientific gaps in understanding and two simple strategies for dealing successfully with under different atmospheric forcings. agenda to support the goals of the Ocean data availability; ii) organizational challenges in the heterogeneous and rapidly evolving field of sea- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Decade from a polar perspective, action plans terms of efficient international coordination; and ice modeling. These strategies can be summarized Systems, 13, e2020MS002438. https://doi. for the respective regions are iii) uptake challenges to foster the by the words “modularity” and “community”. org/10.1029/2020MS002438 currently being developed. societal benefits of ocean science and solutions. For each of these Modularity is a key Considering accelerating areas, the Action Plan provides requirement for present and climate change, the need for a dedicated agenda of specific future sea-ice modeling more enhanced efforts in the challenges and research foci. infrastructures, as it allows generation of ocean data and The collection, management and one to tailor the model knowledge for sustainable ocean sharing of data as well as the need setup to specific scientific management is pressing. To to involve Indigenous people in applications, optimizing address this, the United Nations Arctic science and policy processes at once the use of proclaimed an Ocean Decade, starting this year, are further issues. computational resources and to enhance international collaboration in ocean storage space dedicated to science and create more robust-science policy A similar Action Plan for the Southern Ocean model simulations. In this interfaces. The Ocean Decade’s goals are defined is currently being developed. The Scientific respect, modularity is the in seven Societal Outcomes (SOs), which can be Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) has compass we followed when found in the Ocean Decade Implementation Plan. coordinated the setup of a Southern Task Force designing the upgrade of to work on the Southern Ocean Action Plan. In the thermodynamic sea-ice Based on the recommendations in the February of last year, the first Southern Ocean component of FESOM2 by Implementation Plan, a series of workshops to Meeting was held in San Diego (USA), where key integrating into it the single- develop regional implementation plans were research priorities for the region were defined. The column model Icepack. organized throughout last year. For the Arctic, it was next step will include an open survey so Antarctic part of the January, 2020 Arctic Frontiers conference stakeholders can provide information on their Working in close collaboration at which the Research Council of Norway hosted a current activities and interests. Once the survey with the rest of the sea-ice Policy-Business-Science Dialogue Meeting. Later, concludes, different working groups for each of modeling community is a the Danish Centre for Marine Research organized the Decade’s Societal Outcomes will work on second strategy that has the a series of online workshops in October and transferring its findings into an Antarctic context. best chances of developing Figure 2: Schematic representation of the dynamical and thermodynamical November 2020, where more than three hundred A final Southern Ocean Action Plan version can processes used in the Icepack sea-ice column physics package, recently imple- participants discussed the barriers and challenges a healthy, well-performing mented in the Finite-volumE Sea ice ocean Model version 2 (FESOM2) (credit: be expected by September 2021, when the second modeling infrastructure. In this Lorenzo Zampieri and Martin Künsting, copyright: CC BY 4.0). for sustainable development in the Arctic. This Southern Ocean Regional Workshop will take respect, having implemented the resulted in the creation of an Arctic Action Plan that place in The Hague (NL). Icepack subroutines in FESOM2 aims to identify actions and priorities in the Arctic by following a modular approach guarantees that in order to achieve the Ocean Decade’s Outcomes. More information on the United Nations Ocean model updates and corrections wil be received Decade can be found at https://oceandecade.org. in an efficient and timely manner. Furthermore, Cross-Cutting Barriers in Polar Research More information on the Arctic Action Plan can be To create collaborative momentum for polar sharing one modeling infrastructure with hundreds found here: https://www.oceandecade.dk/. of scientists around the world maximizes synergies, science and sustainable development in the More information on the Southern Ocean Action region, the Arctic Action Plan aims to provide which translates into more direct applicability and Plan can be found here: https://www.sodecade.org/ 20 21 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

because when we get back from the ice, we have to moving a lot due to tides and wind. But everything take care of our samples first anyway. They can‘t went well, and the view of the sometimes jagged, 08 be allowed to thaw and need to be taken directly to sometimes completely flat ice edge was striking. We On Kitchen Scales and Drifting Icebergs – Antarctic Diary the –20 °C cold room. Until dinner, we digitize our could only think how loud it must have been when readings from the ice floe or analyse the samples we the iceberg broke away. by Stefanie Arndt, Alfred Wegener Institute, and Mayleen Schlund, WMO WWRP International Cordination brought back to the ice lab. Here, we look at the ice Office for Polar Prediction, Alfred Wegener Institute crystal structure in polarized light and then melt the 20 March 2021: Neumayer III, North Pier/ Stefanie Arndt is a sea-ice physicist at the Alfred week now. A great feeling. ice cores for salinity measurements. Atka bay Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany. And it means we are also Twenty-four more people with three tons of luggage Her passion is snow; she loves to work with in our ice-station routine. The evening meeting is at 7.30 p.m. Here, I like to and (additionally) a lot of garbage are now on Antarctic sea ice. In February and March, Steffi Whenever the weather listen to what the other teams have done to get a Polarstern. Ten days ago, we set course for Atka joined the most recent expedition to the Antarctic allows, we fly out with the good overview of what’s going on. Before I go to Bay, about 8 km from Germany’s Neumayer III on board the research icebreaker RV Polarstern. helicopter and do our ice bed, I prepare all our equipment again for the next Station. The plan was to pick up the last wintering Expedition PS124 was special in several ways, work. We measure (among ice station – because maybe we’ll be going out on team, the summer guests, and everything the station and carrying out a research expedition under other things) snow depth with a snow probe and ice the ice again tomorrow?! I hope so! no longer needed. But such as it is with plans, things pandemic conditions was challenging on its own. thickness with a device that we tow behind us on turned out differently. While we were loading the She shared her experiences with PolarPredictNews a sled while walking in a large triangle across the 13 March 2021: RV Polarstern, On a piece ship, it experienced a fair jolt accompanied by an in the form of a diary. floe. I also take a very close look (in truest sense) of fast ice north of the new A74 iceberg odd, lingering sound. Sea ice was pushing the ship at the snow layer. Here, I not only look at the size Wow, what an experience when your only protection against the ice shelf. Action had to be taken, so the 28 January 2021: Hotel, Bremerhaven and shape of individual snow crystals but also weigh on the ice is a helicopter! But first things first. Most captain decided to leave the north pier of Atka Bay For the past 13 days, I have been isolated in my individual snow layers with my kitchen scales to of today was a usual day on the ice. But a whiteout to escape the situation. The next day, the helicopter hotel room. It’s quarantine time! The most strenuous determine its density. hit our site in the last hour of work. After a while, brought all the passengers and their luggage on part is over for now, though. After the second round Some other “kitchen practices” are when I taste snow we all looked like snowmen (and women); the wind board – and just one container of garbage was left of negative coronavirus tests a couple of days ago, every now and again – all for science, of course ☺. was whipping around our ears at, well, probably behind. It will be removed next year. Exciting times the expedition team entered what I would call When sea ice forms, most of the salt from the ocean about 30 knots or so. We sought protection in the on board! group therapy! Since then, we have been does not get incorporated into the ice’s helicopter and waited for the weather to get better, spending parts of our days together. lattice structure. The snow on top, on the but the world around us just receded into a grey- 27 March 2021: Atka Bay Held only virtually over the past weeks other hand, is actually tasteless fresh water silver. The pilot decided conditions were too bad to Now in the final days of the expedition, it and months, team meetings are now - unless it has come into contact with salt fly back to Polarstern; instead, the ship set course feels as if the entire expedition also taking place in person in the hotel’s water. But I still take samples of course, to pick us up. So, we walked into the ship’s has just slipped away. Having seminar rooms. We’re eating together, which I use to correctly measure its salinity direction with the helicopter sliding behind crammed in 18 ice stations, and we can do some outdoor activities in the laboratory on board. My colleagues us the whole way. Once the helicopter dug 24 snow pits totaling in a fenced-off area, so I can now swing also bring many samples back on board: managed to hop onto the ship with all 761 cm, taken 184 snow my hula hoop without having to clear the many, many drilled ice cores. our equipment and samples, we were samples and walked entire desk in my room. Tomorrow we’ll picked up by the ship’s mummy chair. about 20 km of face the last round of coronavirus tests 03 March 2021: RV Polarstern, It was a long day; but now we are transects over the ice before leaving for Antarctica. Antarctica happy to be back on board with both flows, the expedition All Photos: Stefanie Arndt Every day is pretty much the same at the helicopter and our equipment. was a success, and 04 February 2021: RV Polarstern, the moment. And the schedule aboard Maybe I’ll go to bed earlier tonight. we are setting course Falkland Islands Polarstern is strict. Breakfast is between Maybe. for home. The last Yesterday, we finally reached Polarstern lying at 07.30 and 08.30 a.m. Then we meet in the ship’s evening on the ice was anchor close to Port Stanley in the Falkland Islands. weather office: Can we take the helicopter towards 14 March 2021: RV Polarstern, emotional. I realized that After two weeks of quarantine in Bremerhaven and the pack ice? If the weather conditions are good, A74 iceberg I don’t know if I will ever the longest-ever passenger flight in the history of we leave around 9.30 a.m. The flight to the floes A few weeks ago, iceberg A74 broke off from come back to my third home Lufthansa aircraft, I am happy; we are now heading usually takes about 5–15 minutes. By noon, it’s all the Brunt Ice Shelf. Since we were in the vicinity in Antarctica; it was hard to say for the Drake passage and ultimately for Antarctic about digging holes and surveying the snow and ice. with Polarstern, it represented the opportunity for goodbye. On Friday, we will return to the Falkland waters. It is fantastic to be back on board again; after Today, we had another visitor, an Antarctic native: us to sail into the gap (now more than a mile wide) Islands and then fly home. Hopefully I will be able eight cruises with the old lady, she has really become a penguin. After the work is done, the helicopter between the ice shelf and the iceberg and explore to come back to this beautiful Antarctica! my third home after Berlin and Bremerhaven. takes us back to Polarstern. By then, in most cases the life above this “fresh” ocean floor. Observing it we have just missed lunch between 11.30 am and carefully together with the captain, we decided to Want to know more? Listen to The IcePod bonus 18 February 2021: RV Polarstern, Antarctica 12.30 pm. (Too bad.) But there is always food in sail through. What an impressive moment. And it episode #1 and episode #8 with Stefanie Arndt. We have been in the ice with Polarstern for one the fridges in the mess rooms on board – lovely, remained exciting, because the iceberg was already 22 23 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

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09 YOPP Final Summit 1-4 May 2022 – Save the Date The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Final Summit will take place in Montreal (QC), Canada, 01–04 May 2022. The conference will bring together the polar prediction community, from operational centres and academia, to environment services and polar prediction users and northern communities, to showcase the successes of YOPP and contribute to the legacy of the Polar Prediction Project.

Topics to be discussed during the meeting will (YOPPsiteMIP); Observing System Experiments be on the representation of polar processes in and reanalyses in polar regions; teleconnections numerical models, especially coupling of the linking polar weather to mid-latitudes predictability; atmosphere, ocean & sea ice; ocean and sea-ice science to services: tailoring polar forecasting modelling and services; the MOSAiC expedition products and services to meet user needs; societal and polar observation campaigns; supersite and economic implications of accessible, relevant, multi-variate observations and process studies and useable forecasts; participation of early career scientists is warmly encouraged, to shape the future of polar science.

Further information will be available in late summer when registration and abstract submission opens. For updates, please check at https://www.polarprediction.net/meetings- FINAL SUMMIT workshops-and-science-sessions/ MONTREAL 2022

REVIEW Progress

SHOWCASE Key Findings & Success Stories

DISCUSS The YOPP Legacy

1–4 MAY 2022 MONTREAL CANADA Online participation possible

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others, the co-designing process and close head of DWD’s media and public relations, writes collaboration with stakeholders from different ski about weather forecaster Christian Paulmann’s 10 resorts has been “a key benefit and challenge” at the meteorological work, DWD’s role in Antarctica and Two New Contributions to Polar Prediction Matters same time. While any software application should about how the COVID-19 pandemic has complicated by Kirstin Werner, WMO WWRP International Cordination Office for Polar Prediction, Alfred Wegener ultimately be easy and simple to use, “it was a weather forecasting in the high southern latitudes. Institute difficult process to simplify so much complexity”, says Carlo Carmagnola. Find the two new contributions at https://blogs. Two new Polar Prediction Matters contributions Action and Carlo Carmagnola from PROSNOW helmholtz.de/polarpredictionmatters/. have been added to the dialogue platform for discuss the projects’ differences and shared challenges Addicted to Antarctic Weather – What users and providers of polar forecast services. between two projects looking at climate services for Queen Maud has to do with Germany’s In “Climate Service for winter National Weather Service DWD the Chief Snowmaker”, tourism. Antarctica is subdivided into four weather prediction Martin Coath from the Amongst regions. Germany provides the forecasting services YOPP-endorsed Blue- for Queen Maud Land, where various countries Action project and maintain research stations, some of them year-round. Carlo Carmagnola from The stations can only be accessed and supplied by air the H2020 PROSNOW or sea from late October to early March. project write about But in Antarctica, weather is always the the opportunities and limiting factor. Deutscher Wetterdienst challenges that come with (DWD), Germany’s national weather climate services for winter service, provides meteorological tourism management. information to ensure safe operations to In the contribution and from all stations in the Queen Maud “Addicted to Antarctic Land area. Weather – What Queen Maud has to do with In a contribution by the DWD to Polar Germany’s National Prediction Matters, Gertrud Nöth, deputy Weather Service (DWD)”, Gertrud Nöth, deputy head of media and public relations at DWD, writes about the role of Germany’s national weather service in Antarctic weather prediction.

Climate Service for the Chief Snowmaker Will there be enough snow on this slope for Christmas? Do I need to make more snow? And how much water do I need to make the snow? These are questions, a manager of a winter tourist resort might be asking. The two projects, PROSNOW and Blue-Action, looked into them and came up with easy- to-use solutions for how to predict snow- making conditions and indicate uncertainty, with the ultimate goal of aiding decision- making.

A new contribution of Polar Prediction Matters, the dialogue platform for providers and users of forecasting services, presents the outcome of the PROSNOW and Blue- Photos from upper left to lower right: Carlo Carmagnola; Veera Vihervaara/RUKA Ski resort ; ALCI, Action studies. Martin Coath from Blue- Kapstadt, modified by Christian Paulmann, DWD; Christian Paulmann, DWD. 28 29 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

Concept & Design: Mayleen Schlund, WMO WWRP International Cordination Office for Polar Prediction, Alfred Wegener Institute

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sure no one got bored taking the same measurements over and over, 11 Zoe introduced a rotating system so The IcePod Episodes Ten and Eleven that everyone could run the different by Sara Pasqualetto and Kirstin Werner, WMO WWRP International Cordination Office for Polar Prediction, instruments. On the last leg, they Alfred Wegener Institute only built a pared-down version of the former ice camp, but Zoe and Binoculars Are My Weapons Sharing the same home as a close-knit team of her team still had to work hard to For the tenth episode of The IcePod, we jump researchers and professionals for three months, Laura keep the various holes in the ice (for from the scientific part to the logistical aspects of occasionally had an opportunity to step out of her plunging instruments into the ocean) the expedition. Carrying out research in the polar logistics role and contribute to other activities in the from refreezing. bears’ living room requires people who take care MOSAiC camp. That’s how she came to feel she of keeping everybody safe. “The binoculars are was part of the atmosphere team, launching weather During the last part of the cruise, my weapons”, says Laura Schmidt, a member of balloons and sending off messages into the blue Polarstern suffered a shortage of the Safety and Logistics Team during MOSAiC Arctic skies. cheese and chocolate. But Zoe and leg 4. her team made it back healthy and in time to be heartily welcomed Laura grew up in an alpine environment in in Bremerhaven in October last Southern Germany, which easily paved her year. But, sadly, with the pandemic way into the Arctic. Studying geography was a ongoing, it felt odd to come back way for her to merge scientific curiosity with a to a world of people hidden behind passion for outdoor activities. And, Greenland masks and without hugs. was her first love; while a master’s student, she went on an excursion to the frozen super-island Find the latest and all previous IcePod and always wanted to go back. episodes e.g. on Spotify, Apple Zoe and the Quiet Ocean Podcast, Castbox (no sign-up needed) or on our And that’s what she did. She’s been working as Number Eleven! It’s the ocean episode. As we website theicepodcast.home.blog a self-employed guide, leading tourists into the finally enter the last leg of the MOSAiC expedition, extreme Greenlandic outdoors, home to the Inuit. we get to talk to Zoe Koenig, an Arctic physical “ In Greenland, everything is much different. oceanographer at the University of Bergen and Here, nature tells you what to do.” One has to the Norwegian Polar Institute in Tromsø. Zoe led be able to read and feel the landscape in order team Ocean during leg 5, which differed clearly #TheIcePod is the podcast about polar to enjoy it and get home safely. It’s an ability from the previous legs. That’s because the original science and the people. We’ll talk to that also helps against a pretty tough enemy for MOSAiC ice floe had disintegrated, andPolarstern scientists who went on board Polarstern, anyone exploring Arctic environments: fog. was now looking for a new home. the German research icebreaker, for the biggest-ever research expedition to Safety is also the keyword of Laura’s role aboard Zoe always had a close relation to the ocean. She grew the Arctic. The IcePod is produced in Polarstern. The polar bear watch was one of a up in Brittany and spent her childhood vacations with collaboration with the Alfred Wegener number of responsibilities to make sure the scientists her family, sailing off the coasts of France. So to her, Institute and Radio Weser.TV, where and crew could carry on with their jobs. But shooting the ocean has always been a special place of freedom. the full episode, with music, will air a polar bear would only have been an option of very And even if for some people it’s just a blue-in-blue, at www.medialabnord.de/radio-livestream/. last resort. Many tactics would come first, explains she will always find a different shade of blue. In the For dates, check in with polarprediction@ Laura in the episode. such as retreating or using a Arctic, where sea ice covers and calms the ocean’s gmail.com. flare gun: “I would never want to be the person who motion; white adds to the blue; but what fascinates shoots a polar bear.” Zoe is the quiet. Editorial responsibility: Kirstin Werner and Sara Pasqualetto It would be normal to wonder if Laura ever It wasn’t Zoe’s first time drifting in the Arctic – as a feels afraid when working in such an extreme PhD student, she joined the Norwegian Young Sea environment. But for her, fear is part of the job; and Ice (N-ICE) experiment aboard the vessel Lance. at the right dosage, it is actually a key to staying And so she brought to MOSAiC all this experience of aware of her surroundings and alert to changes and how to measure the ocean’s speed, tempeature, and dangers around her. salinity. Team Ocean was small but busy. To make Photos both pages: Lianna Nixon 32 33 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

PPP Societal and Economic research Applications Upsides and Downsides of the Online 12 (PPP-SERA) group; examining the benefits and Format outcomes from PPP’s collaboration with MOSAiC In closing the session, the chair of PPP-SG, Support for the YOPP International Coordination Office (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Thomas Jung noted that the online format had Study of the Arctic Climate); reviewing progress Four more interns and a new staff member have Two new interns had joined worked well for much of the discussion while with the sea-ice prediction activities; reviewing been supporting the International Coordination the YOPP Coordination we, however, did not get the added benefits of the progress with the YOPP Data Portal and the Office for Polar Prediction over the last few Office in May and June. many side chats and out-of-session discussions YOPP Supersite Model Intercomparison Project months. that occurred during face-to-face meetings; it was Patrick Hansen studies (YOPPSiteMIP); and, planning for the Final environmental sciences at also difficult to run “brain storming” activities. YOPP Summit as well as general coordination and Additionally, it was challenging to reach out to all Mayleen Schlund studies physical geography the Technical University administrative matters. at the Leibniz University Hannover, Germany, in Brunswick, Germany. PPP-SG members and invited guests considering where she is currently in the final semester of her From 10 May until 2 July 2021, the different time zones of the participants’ Progress with PPP and YOPP Activities bachelor’s program. From 22 February until 27 he has been supporting the YOPP locations; therefore, recordings of all sessions were Prof Jung noted his pleasure in the progress to date May 2021, Mayleen has assisted the International International Coordination Office as provided to all members who had the opportunity with PPP and YOPP activities and the very positive Coordination Office (ICO) for Polar well as the project offices of APPLICATE and ESM. to comment and contribute to the discussion of an outcomes associated with the collaboration of PPP Prediction as well as supporting agenda item at a later stage. with the MOSAiC expedition. Thomas Jung stated the YOPP-endorsed project Jakob Hafner studies physical that the next twelve months would be critical for APPLICATE and the Advanced The full report is available here. geography in his last semester PPP as individuals and institutions furthered their Earth System Modelling project at the Friedrich-Alexander- research and prepared results for publication and (ESM), a Helmholtz initiative. University Erlangen-Nürnberg. discussion at the YOPP Final Summit. Thomas He stayed with us from 1 June Jung also called on all PPP-SG members to seek Nikoleta (Niki) Petridi is a geology to 9 July 2021. further support for the PPP Trust Fund to enable student from the University of Athens, Greece, who the YOPP Final Summit and major is spending her last semester as an ERASMUS Former PPP ICO intern Daniel activities such as the YOPP Data Portal student at the University of Bremen, Germany. Butkaitis has joined us as a and YOPPSiteMIP to be successfully Niki is interested in various climate- student assistant. Daniel studies completed before the end of 2022. change related topics. From 15 water resources management In summarizing the session, Thomas March until 09 May 2021, she at the University of Applied Jung recalled that the session had made has been supporting the YOPP Forest Sciences Rottenburg, a range of tactical decisions related to: International Coordination near Stuttgart, Germany. (kw) the YOPP education activities and the Office and the APPLICATE and Polar Prediction Spring School; the ESM project offices. desirability of continuing the strong Photos: all private, except last PhotoArt Manuela Hund partnership with MOSAiC, particularly for YOPPSiteMIP and coupled 13 modelling; to retro-actively define a All Across the Globe – PPP Steering Group Annual Meeting #12 Special Observing Period (SOP) from mid-December 2019 to mid-April 2020 Photo: The twelfth annual meeting of the Polar Prediction by Jeff Wilson, WMO WWRP International Cordination Office for Polar Prediction to act as a focus for collecting the MOSAiC and Project Steering Group (PPP-SG) was held online from 08–12 March 2021 at different times of theUTC day to allow for The twelfth annual meeting of the Polar Prediction (YOPP) Consolidation Phase: YOPP wider YOPP observation and modelling data for further priority analysis; investigating the option for different time zones of the PPP-SG members’ locations (photo Prediction Project Steering Group (PPP-SG) was education activities and plans for the 2022 collage: Mayleen Schlund, Sara Pasqualetto). held online due to travel restrictions caused by Polar Prediction Spring School; outreach and holding a second Northern Hemisphere Targeted the global COVID-19 pandemic. The session took communication activities; considering options Observing Period (TOP) in-conjunction with the place from 08 to 12 March 2021 at different times for the PPP evaluation and suggestions how parts HALO-AC3 campaign in March and April 2022; of the UTC day to allow for different time zones of the content produced during PPP can be kept request YOPP projects and endorsed projects to of the PPP-SG members’ locations. Discussion public available beyond the end of the project; check that their YOPP publications are included the around each agenda item was kept to a maximum planning for the Targeted Observing Periods during YOPP Google Scholar list; to include lessons learnt of 90 minutes. Antarctic winter from mid-April to mid-June in the YOPP evaluation brochure; and consider 2022; reviewing the outcomes from the Targeted the number of submissions for presentations at The PPP-SG #12 session specifically focused Observing Period in the Northern Hemisphere the YOPP Final Summit when confirming the upon reviewing progress in the Year of Polar (NH-TOP1); reviewing plans for activities by the final room bookings to allow as many speakers as possible to present. 34 35 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

14 15 Virtual Meetings on YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere and Antarctic Introducing the YOPP Task Teams – The YOPP Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Climate Task Team (YOPP-SH) Interview: Daniel Butkaitis, WMO WWRP International Cordination Office for Polar Prediction, Alfred The 16th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology climate and sea-ice predictions. Contributions to the Wegener Institute and Climate (WAMC) is held virtually from 21 workshop in the field of Antarctic meteorology and to 23 June 2021. Anyone interested in Antarctic forecasting and related disciplines are welcome to The YOPP Southern Task Teams? How good are you research, operations and logistics with a focus in be submitted (see information below). Hemisphere Task Team interconnected? Antarctic meteorology and forecasting and related (YOPP-SH) is responsible We have representatives from other Task Teams disciplines is welcome to join the sessions to share As in previous years, the YOPP-SH meeting is for the planning and that provide the close connections. and discuss their results. Along with WAMC goes aligned with WAMC, this year taking place on 24 execution of research the sixth meeting of the Year of Polar Prediction in and 25 June, in a virtual world. Over the past year, activities within YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) community the YOPP-SH community has met online on a regular the Southern Ocean. In Which YOPP-endorsed projects are on 24 and 25 June 2021. Focus will be to discuss basis to discuss interest and potential contributions an interview with YOPP- closely connected to the YOPP-SH plans and contributions to the Antarctic Targeted to the Antarctic Special Observing Period that is SH Task Team lead Prof. Task Team? Observing Periods (TOPs) scheduled for Antarctic scheduled during mid-April and mid-July 2022. David Bromwich, he We have representatives from various YOPP- winter 2022. During the sixth YOPP-SH meeting, national told us about the typical Photo: private endorsed projects. For example, Vito Vitale is commitments will be coordinated amongst the workflow within the group, an active participant and he links us with several The virtual 16th WAMC and the 6th YOPP-SH different action teams that look at various Antarctic plans for an upcoming winter Italian projects like IAMCO-YOPP. SIPN-South meeting are organized by the Byrd Polar and Climate regions to develop the Targeted Observing Periods Special Observing Period in Antarctica, and under François Massonnet is a very active participant Research Center at The Ohio State University, (TOPs) that explore the predictability of impactful about the future of the YOPP-SH task team. in our Task Team. Columbus, Ohio, USA. WAMC takes place from the atmospheric phenomena such major oceanic 21 to 23 June 2021. It brings together those interested cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers. In addition, results David Bromwich is an expert in polar meteorology Where is your special focus in the Task in Antarctic research and operations/logistics to from the summer Special Observing Period (SOP) in and climatology and senior research scientist at Team now? share their latest results and discuss future concepts 2018-2019 will be presented to guide the planning the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center in We are planning the upcoming winter Special to better understand atmospheric, oceanic and sea- and execution of the Antarctic winter TOPs. Columbus Ohio, USA. Early in the duration of PPP, Observing Period in mid-April to mid-July 2022. ice processes relevant to enable numerical weather, he joined the PPP Steering Group and participated This effort will be centered on ~4 Targeted Observing in the planning of the first YOPP Special Observing Periods in 2-3 regions around Antarctica. We had to Periods in the Southern Hemisphere. Since 2015, he delay one year because of the pandemic. Our winter leads the YOPP-SH Task Team as a driving force for Special Observing Period was originally planned the planning and coordination of YOPP activities in for mid-April to mid-July 2021. It was delayed until the South. We talked to David about his work within 2022 because of COVID-19 restrictions on Antarctic the YOPP-SH Task Team. field work.

How many people are involved in the You mentioned already the SOP YOPP-SH Task Team? scheduled for the Antarctic Winter We have something like 70 names on the email 2022. Can you tell us more about the distribution list. For our regular online meetings (see below), we have 25-30 participants. exact plans? Why is this SOP needed? The Targeted Observing Periods will be separately scheduled for 2-3 broad regions around Antarctica. How often do you meet? How does a The focus will be on major oceanic cyclones typical meeting look like? affecting the coast and atmospheric rivers. The TOPs Every 1-2 months online. We have two sessions per will be ~ 5 days in duration each and there will likely day to accommodate all the different time zones. be 4 of them per region. This SOP investigates the We have a yearly scientific/planning meeting, the atmospheric predictability during the colder part of latest one was 24–25 June 2021, entirely online: the year when the sea ice cover is rapidly expanding. https://byrd.osu.edu/events/yopp-sh. The prior SOP considered the predictability during Photo: Radiosonde launch from German Antarctic Neumayer III station during summer Antarctic SOP in austral summer season the austral summer. We also upload the minutes from 2018/2019 (photo: Mikko Sipilä/University of Helsinki, Finland). Are you working together with other all online sessions on our website: http://polarmet. 36 37 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

16 PPP-SERA Online Annual Meeting 2021 by Daniela Liggett, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

In a series of Zoom sessions from 12–16 April meeting to discuss the foci of these publications, 2021, the Societal and Economic Research and and PPP-SERA team members are presently Applications group of PPP (PPP-SERA) met to working on developing these publications further. discuss their work over the last one-and-a-half years and plan for the year ahead, leading up to Similarly, the team had in-depth discussions the YOPP Final Summit in May 2022. about how best to contribute to the YOPP Final Summit, which the team views as an ideal conduit While it was a juggling act to bring together a to showcase the diversity and impact of PPP and team of people from eight different time zones, YOPP efforts over the last eight years. PPP-SERA YOPP in the Southern Hemisphere meeting in 2016 at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, in Columbus, OH, USA the PPP-SERA team was able to progress their strongly endorse an integrated approach to some of (photo: Wesley Haines, BPCRC). understanding and agreement on a range of topics, the sessions that bring together user and producer including PPP-SERA contributions to the YOPP perspectives in the form of paired presentations, osu.edu/YOPP-SH/ Society: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/ Final Summit, to the YOPP Legacy and Evaluation which serve as capacity-building exercises in their bams/101/10/bamsD190255.xml. efforts, and the third Polar Prediction School. own right and are woven throughout the entire YOPP is going to be concluded by next Final Summit. year. Is the work for you and your team What would you describe as the biggest The task team also agreed on pursuing two joint challenge within your Task Team? publications. The first is a synthesis paper with PPP-SERA co-chairs Machiel Lamers and Daniela also done then, or is there any follow-up the goal of summarizing and evaluating the key Liggett took turns chairing the four days of We try hard to ensure participants from around the activity planned already? outcomes PPP-SERA achieved, with a particular engaged and vibrant discussions, which all PPP- world and across many time zones are given equal The winter SOP will occur near the end of PPP- focus of the team’s interactive Open Sessions that SERA members contributed to. YOPP. The analysis and publication of the research consideration and equal opportunity to contribute. engaged a range of PPP stakeholders in tourism, will continue beyond 2022. YOPP-SH is scheduled research, fishing or government operations in the to end December 2024. Shown in the screenshot are the meeting participants, in order polar regions. The second publication is a high- from left to right: (upper row) Daniela Liggett, Jorge Carrasco, level commentary paper exploring the impact of Vicki Heinrich, Kirstin Werner, (mid row) Jelmer Jeuring, Emma What would you describe as the biggest improved polar prediction and WWIC services on Stewart, Rick Thoman, Machiel Lamers, (lower row) Jackie success story within your Task Team? operational risk. Considerable time was spent at the Dawson, Thomas Viguer, Gita Ljubicic (absent Yulia Zaika) (photo: Emma Stewart). The active participation by many Antarctic nations resulted in a very successful summer Special Observing Period, as summarized in our publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological

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17 18 Virtually Connected – The 2021 Online Arctic Science Summit Week Big in Japan but Virtual – Third Arctic Science Ministerial Meeting by Clare Eayrs, New York University, Adu Dhabi, Mayleen Schlund and Kirstin Werner, WMO WWRP by Mayleen Schlund and Kirstin Werner, WMO WWRP International Cordination Office for Polar Prediction, International Cordination Office for Polar Prediction, Alfred Wegener Institute Alfred Wegener Institute

This year’s Arctic Science Summit Week (ASSW) The broad scope of the five presentations in From 08–09 May 2021, the Arctic Science resilience) of collaborations in Arctic research. 2021 was organized by Portugal. While it was the session entitled “The 4 Essential Cs - Ministerial Meeting 2021, co-hosted by Japan, The meeting also aimed at ensuring education initially planned for everyone to convene in Coordination, Communication, Community, Iceland and the European Polar Board, took place. opportunities and building sustainable capacity for Lisbon, the meeting was eventually held online and Collaboration”, examined the various ways in Since fall 2020, the European Polar Board had future generations. from 19 to 26 March 2021. The virtual conference which these ‘4 Cs’ are crucial to polar research. From organized a webinar series to call for input from gathered international Arctic researchers to finding ways to use your data to translate it into an the Arctic research community, stakeholders and Due to the ongoing pandemic, the meetings were discuss interdisciplinary topics framed by engaging story for the public, through coordinating Indigenous people and engage with Arctic science fully set to take place online. While previous ASM the overarching theme “The Arctic: Regional and fostering international, interdisciplinary, and and proposed operations. meetings had aligned a science day for the research Changes, Global Impacts”. The virtual meeting even transdisciplinary cooperation and collaboration, community to come together for discussions, this included both science and business meetings, as this session highlighted the importance of Arctic With the aim of increasing cooperation in Arctic year’s meeting consisted only of the Ministerial. well as a cultural day and a science symposium. A research and the need to engage and motivate all science, two earlier Arctic Science Ministerial However, the research community had been able joint APECS-YOPP-YESS workshop took place aspects of the community. meetings, one in 2016 in Washington D.C. and the to contribute to discussions since fall 2020 during during the weekend part of the conference. other in 2018 in Berlin, Germany, had already been a webinar series organized by the European Polar In the session, “Predict and Predictability - The held. The Third Arctic Science Ministerial was The conference kicked off at the weekend with a Arctic YOPP”, researchers associated with the Year scheduled for 08–09 May 2021 in Tokyo, to be co- series of business and community meetings. During of Polar Prediction and working within a number of hosted by Iceland and Japan. The meeting aimed to the week, scientists presented their recent results YOPP-endorsed projects introduced their research use the well-established foundation of the Ministerial from various initiatives and projects. The conference activities aiming to improve predictive skill for the as a means to take action on coordinated Arctic offered high-level discussions on how to transfer Arctic; also modelling datasets were introduced. observation and research in an open and transparent Arctic and Antarctic knowledge into operations This session provided a good overview about format which included all Arctic stakeholders. and development. Despite the online nature of the opportunities for ECRs to engage with the YOPP/ conference, the organizers managed to bring some PPP community including a number of upcoming During the first and second ASM meetings, the Year of Lisbon’s rich cultural heritage to the attendees education activities. of Polar Prediction (YOPP) and the international through a series of videos and recordings. Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the As part of the business meetings, the International Part of the science part of ASSW 2021 was the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) were prominent Coordination Office for Polar Prediction and the session “Arctic climate change and its Impacts examples of voluntary international cooperation YOPP Education Task Team led by Dr Clare Eayrs on Weather and Climate in the Midlatitudes”. focused on increasing predictive capabilities for collaborated with the Association for Polar Early Here, the YOPP-endorsed project APPLICATE weather and climate in the Arctic and beyond. Career Scientists (APECS) and with the Young Earth highlighted their contribution to better understand Board. The latest webinar on 15 April discussed System Science (YESS) network to host a workshop Arctic atmospheric and sea ice processes to enable The goal of this year’s Arctic Ministerial meeting “Theme 3, Respond: Sustainable development; for Early Career Researchers on “Polar Prediction the development of of improved prediction services. was to foster observations (networking and data Evaluation of vulnerability and resilience; and Collaboration in the Arctic”. The workshop sharing), process understanding (local and global Application of knowledge”. It presented a series comprised three sessions from which recordings The next Arctic Science Summit Week 2022 is impact), response (sustainable development), of projects aiming to increase Arctic sustainability are now available at the Polar Prediction YouTube planned to be held in Tromsø, Norway from 26 to and strengthening (capacity building, education, and resilience and protect the local communities, channel. 31 March 2022. culture and environment. Input to feed into ASM3 discussions was also collected through two In the session, “Home Office (Fatigue) and Follow the link below for more information about conferences last year, ISAR 6 (March 2020), and Zoom Networking – COVID-19 and ECRs”, a this year’s ASSW: ASSW 2020 (March/April 2020). lively discussion followed five brief presentations https://assw2021.pt on recent national and international surveys. More information about this year’s ASM Meeting These discussions highlighted the experiences of and the recordings from the European Polar Board researchers, and especially early career researchers, webinar series are available here. during the pandemic and described the variety of ways in which scientific work and researcher’s lives have been impacted. 40 41 PolarPredictNews #18 NEW PUBLICATIONS NEW PUBLICATIONS PolarPredictNews #18

Ocean (NEMO-EnKF); and the Global Ice-Ocean 19 Modeling and Assimilation System (GIOMAS). Relative Impact of Observations on Arctic Weather Forecasts Each models is compared with satellite and in- situ observations using the correlation coefficients In a new study, Randriamampianina et al. combination of the observation removal in global and the root mean square errors. Each reanalysis investigate the relative impact of different and regional OSEs allows their relative impacts underestimated ice thickness near the western observation types on weather forecasting in on forecast skill to be evaluated through regional Weddell Sea when compared to satellite data, the Arctic during the YOPP Special Observing data assimilation (DA) and the LBCs. It also allows while in other parts of the Weddell Sea, the models Periods. evaluation of their total impact of observations on exhibited maximum performance. (np) the regional forecasts. The rapidly changing Arctic has opened up Shi, Q., Yang, Q., Mu, L., Wang, J., Massonnet, opportunities for more ship traffic and tourism; As far as total impact is concerned, the observations F., & Mazloff, M. R. (2021). Evaluation of sea- however, these require more accurate Arctic weather that get assimilated into the global model that issues ice thickness from four reanalyses in the Antarctic reports. While there is good satellite observation the LBCs can dominate upper-air forecasts for up Weddell Sea. The Cryosphere, 15(1), 31–47. coverage in the Arctic, the temporal and spatial to 48 hours; for the winter period, regional DA can https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-31-2021 resolution of conventional observations is sparse. dominate surface fields for up to 36 hours. Because To better understand and improve the numerical of their total impact on forecast skill, conventional weather forecasting capability in the Arctic, it is observations and infrared radiances have the largest necessary to know the relative impact of the already- impact on all upper-air parameters except humidity; existing observations on forecasting skill. here, microwave radiances have the largest impact. 21 In terms of observation impact through regional The Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System V2: A Pan-Canadian Ocean Randriamampianina et al.’s study was carried out in DA, conventional observations are most important Analysis System the first and second Arctic Special Observing Periods for upper-air temperature and geopotential; here during the Year of Polar Prediction (February–March too, microwave radiances have the largest impact In this study, Greg Smith et al. are presenting the analysis is part of the observation operator. The two 2018 and July–September 2018). Results from on upper-air humidity. Atmospheric motion vectors first pan-Canadian operational regional ocean systems overall exhibit similar innovation statistics the observing-system experiments (OSE) carried and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer analysis system. It is part of the second version with regional variations. out by the European Centre for Medium-Range (IASI) have a large effect on wind forecasts. In of the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used as lateral addition, regional DA of conventional observations (RIOPSv2), developed by the Canadian Centre Important applications for the model include sea- boundary conditions (LBC) to evaluate the impact is also the most helpful at improving surface fields. for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction ice predictions and emergency response along the of Arctic conventional and satellite observations (ph) (CCMEP). Canadian coastline. (np) on regional short-range weather forecasts. These experiments involved removing these observations Randriamampianina, R., Bormann, N., Køltzow, M. The model incorporates both satellite observations Smith, G. C., Liu, Y., Benkiran, M., Chikhar, K., when setting up the initial conditions for the A. Ø., Lawrence, H., Sandu, I., & Wang, Z.Q. (2021). of sea-level anomalies (SLA) and sea-surface Surcel Colan, D., Gauthier, A.-A., Testut, C.- forecasts. MET Norway’s AROME-Arctic regional Relative impact of observations on a regional Arctic temperatures (SST) as well as in-situ temperature E., Dupont, F., Lei, J., Roy, F., Lemieux, J.-F., mesoscale numerical weather prediction system was numerical weather prediction system. Q J R Meteorol and salinity measurements. A spatial filtering of & Davidson, F. (2021). The Regional Ice Ocean used to conduct parallel regional OSEs. A careful Soc., 1– 21. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4018 model fields is part of the observation operator for Prediction System v2: a pan-Canadian ocean SSTs; for the SLA, the inverse barometer effect has analysis system using an online tidal harmonic been removed. analysis. Geoscientific Model Development, 14(3), 20 1445–1467. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1445- The paper compares RIOPSv2 with GIOPS, the 2021 Evaluation of Sea-Ice Thickness in the Weddell Sea Global Ice Ocean Prediction System, which has In a new study, Qian Shi et al. look into Antarctic Bottom waters with a fundamental role in also been implemented by the CCMEP and provides contemporary monthly sea-ice thickness in the the global circulation system. Canada’s first operational global ocean assimilative Weddell Sea intercomparing four ocean-sea-ice capacity with sub-seasonal predictions. It also coupled models with observations. This study focuses sea-ice thickness performance discusses the modifications, improvements and across four reanalyses system models: the innovations incorporated into RIOPSv2. Compared Sea-ice thickness is a significant parameter for the German contribution, of the project Estimating to GIOPS, RIOPSv2 shows improved representation ocean-ice system as it determines the storage of the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version of mesoscale features, such as eddy fields and a higher heat and fresh water. In addition, the Weddell Sea 2 (GECCO2); the Southern Ocean State Estimate grid and more effective resolution. Furthermore, is of central significance for sea-ice production (SOSE); the Ensemble Kalman Filter system based RIOPSv2 has a higher-resolution background error and perennial sea-ice formation and is a source of on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the mode and includes tidal movements; a tidal harmonic

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22 “It‘s Really the Whole Package” YOPP-endorsed! – The APPLICATE Project Interview and Text: Mayleen Schlund, Sara Pasqualetto and Kirstin Werner, WWRP International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction, Alfred Wegener Institute For the past four and a half years, Thomas conditions in polar regions. The main focus lies on Jung and Luisa Cristini, of Germany’s Alfred how climate change in the polar regions affects the Wegener Institute, have been coordinating mid-latitudes where we live. When we started the TJ: We still don‘t understand why the impact of the YOPP-endorsed European project project, there were major knowledge gaps that we APPLICATE? And how does APPLICATE Arctic sea-ice decline is relatively low in models APPLICATE. APPLICATE stands for wanted to close. contribute to improving the polar prediction versus what observations indicate. The link could be “Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and system? large, but the causality in the observations might be beyond: modelling, observing system design Luisa Cristini (LC): An additional objective of TJ: Basically, all APPLICATE work packages mistaken. In the end, it may very well turn out that and Linkages associated with a Changing Arctic APPLICATE is knowledge transfer; that means contributed to the goals of the Polar Prediction Project. the strong Arctic sea-ice decline has relatively little climaTE”. The project includes a multinational translating project outcomes into useful information For example, we provided a dedicated modelling impact on the behaviour of the jet stream in mid- and multidisciplinary team of 15 partner that can inform not e.g. policy makers and private dataset, that is, a YOPP forecast-and-analysis latitudes. institutions in eight European countries, with businesses as well as educate the public. dataset including process tendency. APPLICATE the aim of enhancing weather and climate made quite some progress toward understanding the There is also merit in further studying linkages from prediction capabilities in the Arctic and beyond impact of observations on predictions in the Arctic Where did the funding come from? Who is a prediction perspective: to better understand the and of bringing together the expertise of and beyond. Critical, it turns out, are investments in on the team? impact of improved weather and climate forecasts different research partners, e.g. universities, the uptake of observations into the forecast system, TJ: The project has 15 European partners and in the Arctic on mid-latitud forecasts and vice versa meteorological and oceanological institutes or both in terms of getting more skillful predictions as two additional partners from Russia. The team is also certainly an area that still needs further research centres. APPLICATE wrapped up in well as for scientists carrying out prediction-relevant members include universities such as Stockholm exploration. April 2021. We spoke with Luisa and Thomas University and the Catholic University of Louvain research. about the project’s achievements and success and operational centres such as the Norwegian stories. Meteorological Institute, the Met Office, Météo Additionally, by developing the Polar Amplification What were the main challenges in France and ECMWF. In addition, research institutes Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) protocol, collaborating with many different centres What is the APPLICATE project about? such as the AWI contribute to the success of we contributed to understanding model linkages across Europe? Thomas Jung (TJ): The APPLICATE project is APPLICATE. The European Commission funded to the mid-latitudes. The results will help to close TJ: I would really summarize our collaboration as about developing improved predictive capacity the project under the Horizon 2020 programme. the gulf between observational (strong link, but being great fun. Especially in terms of coordination for polar regions on timescales from days out causality may be mistaken) and modelling studies and management, the work package leaders happened to the end of the twenty-first century. It is about What are the most interesting results of (weak link). to worked super-fast and delivered results before we being able to better predict environmental sea-ice even asked. It was an advantage that the project was LC: Also, regarding the coordination with other very clearly structured and had well-defined goals. It projects and general community building, the helped that people understood what the project was APPLICATE and YOPP teams learned from about. But of course, there were also challenges; we each other. For example, we collaborated on a were set back by delays in delivering certain data joint publication looking at the challenges and sets, for example those related to CMIP6. opportunities of project and community management in polar sciences; it received really good feedback LC: I agree that collaboration across Europe, and from the community. And this is definitely something in particular with so many different people from that will remain: beyond being able to say we have so many institutions and countries, is both fun and have run a successful project, we have contributed challenging. On one hand, it is exciting because you to improving management practices. YOPP has also get to work with different people, and diversity is helped the polar community to become aware of the what makes science more useful as you generate APPLICATE project and to amplify our results. more ideas mutually. But on the other hand, the more partners you have, the more challenging it is What are the next big questions to be to bring all these people together while you try to take all their needs into account – people at different From left to right: APPLICATE Finance Manager Nancy Lange, PI of APPLICATE project Thomas Jung, and APPLICATE project answered regarding Arctic-midlatitude manager Luisa Cristini during the APPLICATE General Assembly 2018 in Barcelona (photo: APPLICATE cornsortium). linkages? career stages, students (of course), not to mention 44 45 PolarPredictNews #18 PolarPredictNews #18

the senior scientists on the Executive Board. terms of implementations, becoming more dynamic overall. 23 What were the most exciting parts in the project for you personally? Is there Where can the YOPP community access Upcoming (mostly Online) Meetings something you are particularly proud of the data and also get more information 03-10 September 2021 14–17 October 2021 (e.g., in terms of project management)? about APPLICATE? 2021 Annual Meeting of the European Arctic Circle Assembly TJ: It is the whole package I was most happy TJ: I can highly recommend visiting our website Meteorological Society Reykjavik, Iceland with. If pressed to single out one activity, I would applicate-h2020.eu. Online mention our work on Arctic–mid-latitude linkages. 03–05 November 2021 There, we went well beyond what our proposal How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect the 06-10 September 2021 ACUNS Student Conference on Northern Studies: originally promised: We moved from a small set of workflow and the project management? SIOS Training course on Hyperspectral Remote Adaptation, Resilience and Change in the North coordinated simulations to a full CMIP6-endorsed LC: Even before COVID-19, the various work Sensing Online protocol (PAMIP). packages were coordinated online, so that didn’t Online change much. What we had to move online were all 08 November 2021 Furthermore, I am really excited about the work, the coordinating-team meetings. In some ways, the 20-24 September 2021 Linking multidisciplinary observations from led by Irina Sandu and François Massonnet, project members got to communicate even more and Polar Data Forum IV Svalbard with the MOSAiC campaign on recommendations for developing the Arctic met more regularly with the subgroups. So, I think Online Online observing system. we adapted the management to the situation. 18–20 November 2021 27-29 September 2021 38th International Polar Symposium Managing EU projects is actually quite challenging. TJ: The project was in some ways more fortunate than 26th International Symposium on POlar Sciences: “Environmental Changes in Polar Regions: New However, the feedback we’ve received from our other EU projects, because by the time the pandemic Respoding to Climate Cristis: Contributions of Problems –New Solutions” project officer at the European Commission and the started, we had already sufficiently matured and POlar Science and Technology Torún, Poland two external reviewers for the third and final review were in our last year; many simulations were already Incheon, South Korea (with option to move online) by was very positive; they were happy with the way complete or were just finishing. We were also lucky 18–19 November 2021 we did things, and it was a great moment. in that we were able to meet in person for our last 05-07 October 2021 2021 SCAR SC-HASS Biennial Conference – The annual assembly in January 2020, shortly before the Arctic CCS: Community and Citizen Science in the Global Antarctic LC: I agree with Thomas in that it’s really the whole first shutdown. We communicated very well online. Far North Kobe, Japan & Online package. For me, it is always important to learn new And finally, a lot could be accomplished remotely Online things and to go beyond my personal comfort zone, because it was a modelling project. 06–10 December 2021 and in the project there were many occasions for 10-14 October 2021 ArcticNet Annual Scientific Meeting learning – for example, how to design and develop Will there be a follow-up project to pick up 28th International Polar Conference Online impactful knowledge transfer activities and how to where APPLICATE left off? Potsdam, Germany address the bigger question of a project‘s impact. The TJ: APPLICATE is around 80 percent YOPP, and 13–17 December 2021 team and the general cooperation performed very it greatly contributed to the goals of PPP. At the 18-22 October 2021 AGU Fall Meeting well, and after so many years of APPLICATE, the moment, there are ideas and discussions on its legacy. International MOSAiC Science Conference/ New Orleans, USA & Online social side played an important part, too. The team Part of it is, What comes after the Polar Prediction Workshop 2021 grew together and bonded beyond the professional Project? There seems to be an appetite for a bit of Potsdam, Germany level. Personally, I got to know some fantastic people an extension of research projects like APPLICATE. with whom I want to keep in touch. It was a lot like And in principle, there are good reasons to do it. working with friends, and this should be counted as a success story, too. YOPP FINAL SUMMIT 2022 Have you achieved all goals during the project’s duration? 01–04 May 2022 TJ: APPLICATE did not necessarily achieve all The Centre Mont-Royal goals. During the course of the project, some things had to be adjusted; new topics were picked up, Montreal, Quebec, Canada and certain activities received more attention than originally planned. Together with the European More information at Commission and our reviewers, we decided to increase our contribution in order to stay flexible in https://yoppfinalsummit.com/

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