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Wandisco Plc Wandisco CMD; Veni, Vidi, CC Decies Centena WANdisco plc WAND – LSE; WAND.L October 19, 2017 European Software & IT Services BUY COMPANY UPDATE WANdisco CMD; Veni, vidi, CC decies centena Price (18 October 2017) 863p Summary Changes Previous Current Rating - BUY Like Julius Caesar conquering Pharnaces II, Tuesday’s WANdisco CMD was a swift, Target Price - 1,029p conclusive affair. IBM fired the killer blow by suggesting that it could see US$200-300m revenue from its WANdisco OEM. For us, other highlights include: (i) the convincing Key data narrative that WANdisco has the capabilities to execute on the opportunity. (ii) Bloomberg/Reuters codes: WAND LN / WAND.L Commentary that “the puck” is moving to WANdisco not the other way around. (iii) From Market cap (£m) 287 the technical presentations more clarity around the defensibility of the technology, but also FTSE ALL SHARE 4,141 very pleasing to see WANdisco open the kimono on its longer range thinking. (iv) From the 1mth perf (%) 29.2 esteemed industry analyst Peter Burris there was an overlay message that the industry 3mths perf (%) 37.5 trend is that the “cloud goes to where the data” – which we read as an endorsement of 12mths perf (%) 456.5 the importance of hybrid computing (remember for some it is only a transitionary step – 12mth high-low (p) 890 - 128 we think that it is ‘the thing’). On the grudge list, no customer presentation, no colour on Free float (%) 71 Q3 trading, nothing on SCM (a positive from H1 results) and no commentary on the deep changes wrought by CEO (those ‘99 Problems’). This has been a masterful turnaround Key financials and its fixing process deserves more mention. As we return to our desk we have revisited (i) our DCF to try to accommodate some of the IBM ‘what it is’ thinking and, (ii) given Year to Dec 2016A 2017E 2018E the Microsoft Data Box news on Tuesday the evidence says that WANdisco has a critical Sales 11.4 16.8 20.1 piece of industry plumbing, is an asset to a collection of deep pocket behemoths and EBITDA (adj) (7.5) (2.4) 0.0 so we revisited our SOTP. Net/net these changes increase our target price from 843p to EV/EBITDA (x) 0.5 1.8 (171.9) 1029p. We retain our Buy rating. PE adj (x) NA NA NA EV/Sales (x) (0.3) (0.3) (0.1) EPS adj (c) (0.47) (0.25) (0.20) Key Points Prices are as of close 18 October 2017 Forecasts. We make no changes to our forecasts or recommendation. All sources unless otherwise stated: Company data, FactSet, Stifel estimates IBM. Mr. Dimtchev spoke to previous cases where IBM had taken a US$20-30m revenue Share price performance (indexed) business and transformed it into a US$200-300m in a few years and that was the intention with IBM Big Replicate (i.e. the WANdisco Fusion OEM product). 700 600 Industry analyst Mr. Burris pointed out that total cost of ownership studies had shown 500 that for some the cost of data transfer is currently prohibitive, and as processing data 400 locally is more cost effective, it is the cloud that comes to the data, rather than the current 300 orthodoxy which is that the data goes to the cloud. 200 100 Ability to execute. While the ‘puck moves to WANdisco’ helps TAM and makes the use 0 case more tangible, our long standing grudge is that it is not TAM but rather the ability Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 to execute on TAM which is the more critical component in judging success. WANdisco Absolute Rel.FTSE ALL SHARE (ASX) needs to be able not just to onboard customers, but also help on sales prospects and POCs from the channel prospects and POCs at scale and at speed. On this, we believe Tuesday’s CMD was a strong positive. Impressive technology – read all about it. This is all possible because of WANdisco’s IP strength with DConE, its patent-protected ‘active transaction replication’ software (allows data to be moved securely, at speed and at scale between computing environments). WANdisco Fusion is a general purpose replication platform with plug-ins for multiple storage systems (cloud, big data, etc) rather than a specific platform for Hadoop. Watch again. In case you missed the CMD it is here. http://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/ broadcast/59d65608d349960788385d17/59e6fee232342194530000c5 Target price update 1029p. WANdisco offers investors exposure to a business enjoying rigorous growth in a global target market, and to perhaps the ‘noisiest’ theme in IT currently – Big Data. We see abundant evidence that the company is now positioned to accelerate growth that should create further value for its shareholders. We use a blended model to arrive at our 12-month share price target of US1,092cents/843p (taking DCF US1526cents (increased from US1,145cents), sum-of-the-parts 1597cents (increased from US1,110cents) and FCF yield US1,251cents). George O'Connor | +44 (0) 20 7710 7694 | george.o'[email protected] UK Sales Desk | +44 (0) 20 7710 7600 Completed: 19 October 2017 01:47EDT Disseminated: 19 October 2017 01:47EDT MiFID II - Research: Is your access agreed? CONTACT us today Stifel does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. All relevant disclosures and certifications appear on pages 21 - 23 of this report. WANdisco plc Company Update WAND – LSE October 19, 2017 European Software & IT Services Key data1 Key information Key profit and loss data ($) Target price methodology/risks 2016A 2017E 2018E We use a blended model to arrive at our 12-month share price target of Sales 11.4 16.8 20.1 1029p, using discounted cash flow, sum-of-the-parts and free cash flow EBITDA (9.3) (3.7) (1.4) yield. While WANdisco has a number of adjacent growth opportunities, EBITDA margin (%) (81.3) (21.8) (6.8) we believe the ‘cash generation’ bias in our valuation methodology reflects how investors see the benefits of subscription-based business Gross profit 10 16 19 models. Net income (9.2) (12.9) (8.6) PBT rep (10.0) (13.8) (9.6) Risks to target price. In addition to general and macroeconomic risks, EBITDA adj (7.5) (2.4) 0.0 the downside risks include continued deceleration in the source code Depreciation & amortisation 9 8 8 and Big Data markets. This would impact cash inflow and thereby DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 increase cash outflow and lessen investor interest. Upside risks include a better-than-expected revenue growth, possibly as a consequence of Key cash flow data ($) the channel partner sales accelerating faster than anticipated. 2016A 2017E 2018E Operating profit (17.9) (11.5) (9.6) Business description Operating cash flow (2.2) 4.7 3.7 WANdisco is an infrastructure software company that has developed a Capex (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) patent-protected method for data replication of across heterogeneous Dividends 0.00 0.00 0.00 compute environments. Net debt (7.6) (8.2) (6.8) Taxes paid (0) 1 1 Senior management Cash flow from investing 5 1 (1) David Richards - CEO FCF (8.3) 0.6 (1.4) Dividends 0.00 0.00 0.00 Erik Miller - CFO Cash at end of year 8 8 7 Key balance sheet ($) Key dates 2016A 2017E 2018E Jan 2018 - Trading update Cash and cash equivalents 7.6 8.2 6.8 Total assets 20.2 20.2 18.5 Major shareholders Oppenheimer Funds 15.02% Schroder Investment Management 9.86% T. Rowe Rice International 6.09% GAM 4.38% Ross Creek Capital 3.88% Website www.wandisco.com 1 Year end December Data in millions, except per share and percentages Source: Company data, FactSet, Stifel estimates 2 WANdisco plc Company Update WAND – LSE October 19, 2017 European Software & IT Services WANdisco CMD; Veni, vidi, CC decies centena CMD – In summary Peter Burris, GM Wikibon. Mr Burris commented that for digital businesses, ‘data’ is the basis of their differentiation and for them, data is an asset and their objective must be to put that asset to work and apply it to new areas. Hence their need to unlock data from multiple places. In addition, as data is not scarce, nor is it fungible, it has a different value when used in different applications, and so by its nature it will, over time, be more distributed. As digital businesses create new higher value applications, their data will be increasingly more distributed (part of the rationale being that costs are lower) and hence there is a growing need to; (i) be able to restore data and, (ii) protect it. According to Mr Burris this is an under-served part of the market. While the cloud is a critical architectural component for digital business, Mr Burris argued that not all data will move to the cloud and pointed to total cost of ownership studies which concluded that for some the cost of data transfer is currently prohibitive, and also processing data locally is more cost effective. Hence his view that “the cloud comes to the data” – which goes against the current orthodoxy that the data goes to the cloud. Mr Burris argued that over time the IaaS market (say Amazon AWS) will not out-grow the SaaS or private cloud markets (see figure below) because the cloud moves to the data – again Mr Burris broke with the current orthodoxy.
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