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Conifer Establishment and Encroachment on Subalpine Meadows Around Mt Western Washington University Western CEDAR WWU Graduate School Collection WWU Graduate and Undergraduate Scholarship Summer 2020 Conifer establishment and encroachment on subalpine meadows around Mt. Baker, WA Ben Hagedorn Western Washington University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://cedar.wwu.edu/wwuet Part of the Environmental Sciences Commons Recommended Citation Hagedorn, Ben, "Conifer establishment and encroachment on subalpine meadows around Mt. Baker, WA" (2020). WWU Graduate School Collection. 981. https://cedar.wwu.edu/wwuet/981 This Masters Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the WWU Graduate and Undergraduate Scholarship at Western CEDAR. It has been accepted for inclusion in WWU Graduate School Collection by an authorized administrator of Western CEDAR. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Conifer establishment and encroachment on subalpine meadows around Mt. Baker, WA By Ben Hagedorn Accepted in Partial Completion of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts ADVISORY COMMITTEE Dr. Aquila Flower, Chair Dr. Andy Bach Dr. Michael Medler GRADUATE SCHOOL David L. Patrick, Dean 1 Master’s Thesis In presenting this thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a master’s degree at Western Washington University, I grant to Western Washington University the non-exclusive royalty-free right to archive, reproduce, distribute, and display the thesis in any and all forms, including electronic format, via any digital library mechanisms maintained by WWU. I represent and warrant this is my original work, and does not infringe or violate any rights of others. I warrant that I have obtained written permissions from the owner of any third party copyrighted material included in these files. I acknowledge that I retain ownership rights to the copyright of this work, including but not limited to the right to use all or part of this work in future works, such as articles or books. Library users are granted permission for individual, research and non-commercial reproduction of this work for educational purposes only. Any further digital posting of this document requires specific permission from the author. Any copying or publication of this thesis for commercial purposes, or for financial gain, is not allowed without my written permission. Ben Hagedorn 8/8/20 2 Conifer establishment and encroachment on subalpine meadows around Mt. Baker, WA A Thesis Presented to The Faculty of Western Washington University In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts by Ben Hagedorn August 2020 3 Abstract The subalpine ecotone is experiencing significant change in habitat availability and connectivity as a result of climate change and climate variability. To understand how these changes vary temporally and spatially in the Pacific Northwest, we collected cross-sections and counted whorls of conifers along four transects around Mt. Baker, Washington in the North Cascades. In addition to the samples collected, we also gathered data on microsite conditions that impact seedling establishment. Using partial correlation analyses, we compared establishment dates to climate variables in five-year bins, and used normal correlation analyses along with other statistical tests to determine the effect of various microsite variables on establishment. Our results show that establishment has occurred in pulses throughout the 20th century, with greater establishment on drier sites during periods of greater precipitation, and greater establishment on wetter sites during periods of higher temperatures. We found that April precipitation and September temperature are particularly strongly correlated with establishment rates, suggesting that the best conditions for conifer seedling establishment occur in years with the warmth and soil moisture needed for the growing season to last longer into late summer. Within individual meadows, conifer seedling establishment was greater on convex surfaces and in areas with a higher percentage of vaccinium cover. The tree species present in each meadow also play a role in determine the timing of establishment pulses, and the distribution of encroaching seedlings, with silver fir only being able to establish close to its seed source and yellow cedar establishing on drier microsites. Our findings at Mt. Baker show that periods of conifer establishment have occurred somewhat synchronously across multiple mountains in the region, but we also identified distinct spatial and temporal differences linked to local site conditions. iv Acknowledgements I am deeply grateful to all the people who have helped me complete this work as a part of my Master’s Degree. I would not have been able to do this without the advice and support of my committee chair, Dr. Aquila Flower, or my committee members Dr. Andy Bach, Dr. Michael Medler, and Dr. Eric DeChaine. Numerous other faculty and administration staff were helpful, especially Dr. Andy Bunn who helped me trouble-shoot numerous technical and non-technical problems, and Ed Weber who helped me navigate bureaucracy. My fellow graduate students were incredibly supportive. Particularly the fellow members of the tree ring lab: Hannah LaGassey, Dustin Gleaves, and Chris Trinies. Being able to work with you all, freely bounce ideas off each other, and get some insight into different areas of dendrochronology was easily one of the most enjoyable parts of my time at Western. You all helped make me a better researcher. Kate Welch, Hannah Drummond, and Elliot Winter were also wonderful and helpful throughout this process. They were always checking in to see how my thesis was going, providing me an outlet to vent and some perspective, as well as useful feedback that drastically improved my skills. I would not have made it through without my family and friends. Especially my mom and dad, Lin and Tom Hagedorn, as well as my sister Jenn Hagedorn. They listened to me complain, provided so much encouragement, helped me move twice, and on occasion sent me boxes of food. Finally, I could not have collected all this data on my own. So many people came out the help me scout for sites and cut down tiny little trees. So thank you to Hannah LaGassey, Lin Hagedorn, Tom Hagedorn, Elliot Winter, Jameson Goff, Shea Simpson, Mia Henderson, Michael Schroeder, Sean Fitzpatrick, Bill LaGassey, Rai Dachenhausen, and Colter Lemons. v Table of Contents Abstract ...................................................................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................... v List of Tables and Figures ....................................................................................................................................... vii Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 1: Methods .................................................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 2: Results ..................................................................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 3: Discussion ............................................................................................................................................... 32 Chapter 4: Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 45 Works Cited ............................................................................................................................................................... 48 Appendix A ............................................................................................................................................................... 53 Appendix B ................................................................................................................................................................ 55 Appendix C ............................................................................................................................................................... 57 vi List of Tables and Figures Figure 1- Study area map Page 5 Figure 2- Study area climograph Page 6 Figure 3- Study area snowpack graph Page 6 Figure 4- Transect microtopography image Page 8 Figure 5- Study area establishment Page 13 Figure 6- Transect establishment Page 14 Figure 7- Study area partial annual and seasonal correlations Page 16 Figure 8- Scott Paul partial annual and seasonal correlations Page 17 Figure 9- Grouse Ridge partial annual and seasonal correlations Page 18 Figure 10- Scott Paul partial monthly temperature correlations Page 19 Figure 11- Grouse Ridge partial monthly temperature correlations Page 19 Figure 12-Scott Paul partial monthly precipitation correlations Page 20 Figure 13- Grouse Ridge partial monthly precipitation correlations Page 20 Figure 14- Scott Paul partial monthly snowpack correlations Page 21 Figure 15- Grouse Ridge partial monthly snowpack correlations Page 21 Figure 16- Scott Paul partial monthly snowfall correlations Page 22 Figure 17- Grouse Ridge partial monthly snowfall correlations Page 22 Figure
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