A Demographic, Housing and Economic Needs Assessment of Lincoln Heights

COMMUNICATING CHANGE: A DEMOGRAPHIC, HOUSING AND ECONOMIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT OF LINCOLN HEIGHTS

A Project

Presented to the

Faculty of

California State Polytechnic University, Pomona

In Partial Fulfillment

Of the Requirements for the Degree

Master of Arts

Urban and Regional Planning

Brittany Taylor

2019

SIGNATURE PAGE

PROJECT: DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT OF LINCOLN HEIGHTS

AUTHOR: Brittany Taylor

DATE SUBMITTED: Summer 2019

Department of Urban and Regional Planning

Dr. Alvaro M Huerta Project Committee Chair Assistant Professor Department of Urban and Regional Planning

Dr. Dina Abdulkarim Assistant Professor Department of Urban and Regional Planning

Francesca De La Rosa Policy Director W.O.R.K.S.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This project would not have been possible without the partnership and support of the

W.O.R.K.S. team. Thank you to the Department of Urban and Regional Planning faculty and a huge thank you to the amazing URP cohort for your support throughout this entire process!

iii

ABSTRACT

Lincoln Heights has benefited from being an affordable place for many residents to purchase a home, rent an apartment and/or run a business store front. Over the last decade however, the affordability of living and thriving in Lincoln Heights has decreased for many of those long-term residents, forcing them to find housing elsewhere. The city of Los

Angeles recognizes that Lincoln Heights, like many other neighborhoods within the city limits, needs affordable housing. In response, the city has commissioned the non-profit organization W.O.R.K.S. (Women Organizing Resources Knowledge Services) to create a plan to convert five city owned parking lots into affordable housing complexes in the heart of Lincoln Heights. While the commission for new affordable housing has been celebrated, some resident groups in Lincoln Heights are opposed to the developments. W.O.R.K.S. has responded by directly reaching out to residents to understand their needs, fears and hopes for their community. The group has commissioned this report on the demographic, economic and housing needs of Lincoln Heights to use as a guide for their development plan of the affordable housing complexes and to create a communication strategy to build support for those developments. This report serves as a foundational study to support

W.O.R.K.S. continued effort to build support for the Lincoln Heights 5 developments.

From the report a presentation and leaflet has been created to communicate the research information to Lincoln Heights residents.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SIGNATURE PAGE ...... ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... iii

ABSTRACT ...... iv

List of Figures ...... vi

CHAPTER 1 ...... 1

CHAPTER 2 ...... 17

CHAPTER 3 ...... 35

CHAPTER 4 ...... 38

REFERENCES ...... 40

APPENDIX: STORY MAP/LEAFLET ...... 45

List of Figures

Figure 1: Image of Lincoln Heights Location……………………………………….…....4

Figure 2: Image of Lincoln Heights 5 Location…………………………………………..7

Figure 3: Percentage of Residents in Lincoln Heights and Los Angeles County………….…...21

Figure 4: Ethnicity of Residents in 2010……………………………………………..….25

Figure 5: Ethnicity of Residents in 2017…………………………………………….…..25

Figure 6: Educational Attainment 2010……………………………………………….....26

Figure 7: Education Attainment 2017…………………………………….………….…..27

Figure 8: Number of Housing Units Compared to Population ……………………….....28

Figure 9: 2017 Subsidized Housing…………………………………………………..….29

Figure 10: Homeowners Compared to Renters in 2010-2017………………………...…32

Figure 11: Percentage of Rent Burden Population……………………………………....33

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

Los Angles, like many other metropolitan cities in the United States, is concurrently experiencing both economic growth and exceptional challenges with housing costs. The project Neighborhood Data for Social Change through the University of Southern

California estimates that as of 2013 “Los Angeles was the most rent-burdened city in the entire nation”. The project states that around 62% of the city’s renters spend more than

30% of their household income on rent each month effectively categorizing them as cost burden according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development standards.

Residents who are particularly lower income (compared to the city’s median income level) are facing growing housing costs with little reprieve. Cost burden residents in Los Angeles have seen new luxury and market rate developments built throughout Los Angeles County;

10,000 new units were built in 2017 alone—many of those units being luxury units rented or sold at market rate or above market rate prices. (Goulding 2019). The city is working to respond to these challenges. Los Angeles, however, would need to construct around

5,300 affordable housing units each year to keep up with demand and so far since 2006 the city has developed around 1,100 per year (Goulding 2019). Los Angeles Mayor Eric

Garcetti’s administration has set the goal of permitting and constructing 100,000 new housing units by the year 2121 through streamlining the permitting process for new affordable housing developments (lamayor.org). The mayor’s office estimates that from

July of 2013 through June of 2017 over 65,000 new housing units have been permitted. It remains to be seen, however, if the units permitted to be constructed will help to address

the affordable housing crisis in Los Angeles. Neighborhoods experience a lack of affordable housing options and cost burden renting in different ways. Communities with more low-income residents are grappling with the best plan of action to combat resident displacement because of rising costs. Low-income neighborhoods are facing a duel challenge of rising costs and an environment for gentrification (Barragan 2016). Longtime residents cannot afford to remain in a neighborhood because of the rise in the cost of living, but newer residents find the same neighborhood cheap with low rents and purchase prices

(Richardson et al. 2019). Ruth Glass, former sociologist and researcher from the

University College London, described a phenomenon occurring in the neighborhoods of

London as “gentrification”. Her work is entitled “London: Aspects of Change”, was written from her research at the Centre of Urban Studies. In 1964 she coined the term gentrification to describe changing working-class neighborhoods to middle and upper middle-class neighborhoods, resulting in the displacement of original members of the community and replacement by a new population. Urban Displacement is often an effect of gentrification. In the recently published study on gentrification and displacement in multiple American cities, Richardson et al describe neighborhoods that experience gentrification see an increase in investment and changes to their built environment. The increase in investment and changes to the environment leads to an increase in home values, income and education of residents (Richardson et al. 2019).

One of the Los Angeles neighborhoods experiencing gentrification is Lincoln

Heights (Mejia et al. 2018). Longtime residents in Lincoln Heights are afraid the housing and economic changes they see happening, however slowly, in their community will lead to their displacement from the community, (Meija et al. 2018). “The process of

displacement can take a range of forms and usually involves low-income, longstanding households being placed in situations that makes it exceptionally difficult if not impossible for them to retain their footing in the area concerned” (Hartman et al. 1982; Marcuse 1985;

Newman & Wyly 2006). Lincoln Heights is in a prime location, it is minutes away from downtown Los Angeles, an area that has seen a growing economy and the development of new jobs pulling in new residents. Lincoln Heights is also located near other gentrified

Los Angeles neighborhoods including Chinatown, Highland Park and Eagle Rock (Mejia et al. 2018). The Los Angeles Times recently published (between March 29 through April

6, 2018), a four-part series about the Lincoln Heights neighborhood and residents’ fear of displacement because of gentrification (Mejia et al. 2018). The reporters spent months collecting demographic and economic data on the Lincoln Heights community and stories from current and former residents about their experience living in the neighborhood. They found that older residents who have retired from working and longtime residents who live off a fixed income have few options in response to rising rental costs other than to move away from their community (Mejia et al. 2018). Los Angeles city officials have commissioned the development of new affordable housing units in Lincoln Heights on five city-owned parking lots to try to alleviate community need for cheaper housing (Smith

2018). The nonprofit affordable housing development group Women Organizing

Resources Knowledge and Services (W.O.R.K.S.) has been asked by local Council

Member Gilbert Cedillo, who represents the Lincoln Heights neighborhood, to create the development plan for the proposed affordable housing units called the Lincoln Heights 5

(Smith 2018). To support their development plan and to build local community support for the Lincoln Height 5, the W.O.R.K.S. team has asked for this report and client project.

This report and project will give the W.O.R.K.S. team foundational research and data on the demographic, housing and economic descriptions of Lincoln Heights. From my research two communication products will be created for the team to use to help build resident support for the Lincoln Heights 5. The W.O.R.K.S. team chose two deliverable products they believe will aid them with their effort to build community support: a presentation and leaflet. My goal for the products is to present the information I researched and analyzed in an interesting way, clearly framing the issues of gentrification and displacement and further connecting how the LH5 will address the housing and economic needs of the community. This report connects neighborhood statistical data to the need for the Lincoln Heights 5 affordable housing developments.

BACKGROUND

Figure 1: Smith, Smith, Doug. “A Plan to House LA’s Homeless Residents Could Transform Parking Lots

Across the City”. The Los Angeles Times, 9 February 2018. Digital Image.

Lincoln Heights is one of the oldest neighborhoods in the city of Los Angeles. It is located north of downtown and Chinatown, east of Dodger Stadium, south of Highland

Park. Lincoln Heights covers only about 2.5 square miles and it is a densely populated.

For decades, Lincoln Heights has been a cultural center and place of refuge for residents seeking familiar culinary hunts, recreation space for community get-togethers and most importantly an affordable place to live within the bustling setting of Los Angeles (Mejia et al. 2018). However, housing affordability in Los Angeles County has steadily become complex for working people and low-income residents including residents in Lincoln

Heights, (Chiland 2018). Lincoln Heights residents have witnessed new developments constructed in their neighborhood that are luxury or market rate housing (Barragan 2018).

One major developer in the area with several projects in the works constructing luxury and market rate housing is the real estate developer 4Site. 4Site has plans to build a mixed-use development in Lincoln Heights that will include hotel rooms and retail space with at least

97 market-rate residential units and only three units for extremely low-income residents,

(Barragan 2018). The same real estate development group is currently constructing nine market rate homes along Griffin Avenue in the neighborhood. Similarly, the development group Decro has plans to construct a 97-unit property on Main Street near the University of Southern California Health and Science campus in which only half of the units will be affordable housing (Sharp 2019). Current residents are hesitant to throw their support behind any new development plan in their neighborhood out of fear more expensive housing is going to be built (Smith 2018). W.O.R.K.S will have to deal with this development environment while working to bring affordable housing to Lincoln Heights.

LINCOLN HEIGHT 5 PROPOSAL

Despite trepidation from some members of the Lincoln Heights community, the city of

Los Angeles through Council Member from District 1 Gilbert Cedillo, who represents the

Lincoln Heights neighborhood, has commissioned a plan to develop five affordable housing projects in Lincoln Heights in an extensive effort to address the need for affordable housing in the community (Smith 2018). The city currently owns five empty parking lots in Lincoln Heights and has chosen those lots as the sites for the affordable housing developments (Cedillo 2017). The parking lots are all located around North Broadway

Street which a major thoroughfare in the neighborhood (Lot locations: 2332-2340

Workman Street, 2332-2338 N. Daly Street, 2416-2422 Workman Street, 151-164 S.

Avenue 24, 216-224 S. Avenue 24). North Broadway is the walkable street with many retail businesses, restaurants, shops and mom-and-pop storefronts serving the community.

Some of the businesses along North Broadway around each parking site include eateries like a local bakery called LA Baking Company, numerous fast food establishments like

Taco Bell, McDonalds, El Pollo Loco, etc., banking services provided by Bank of America and East West Bank, and small grocers like CVS and the 99 Cent store. Off North

Broadway into the neighborhood around each parking lot there are residential properties.

The residences include single family and multifamily homes. The LH5 developments would have an advantaged being built within an already established community that has many local services residents use. The LH5 development project has the potential to have a positive impact in the Lincoln Heights neighborhood. According to the W.O.R.K.S. team, planning for the Lincoln Heights 5 development is still in the early phase, but

W.O.R.K.S. plans to make social services (not specified) available at several of new

developments sites to address underlying needs of residents. W.O.R.K.S will determine the kind of services they want to provide later. LH5 will be a multi-unit development and will increase the supply of affordable housing in Lincoln Heights that is needed. There

are, however, potential problems developing the housing units could pose in the

neighborhood. The W.O.R.K.S. team held numerous community engagement meetings

over the last year to understand resident sentiment about the developments and one of

several concerns’ residents have about the developments is the potential loss of parking

once the lots are developed into affordable housing units. The W.O.R.K.S. team has stated

to residents during each of their previously held outreach sessions that replacement parking

is included as a part of their development plan for LH5.

Figure 2: Smith, Doug. “A Plan to House LA’s Homeless Residents Could Transform Parking Lots

Across the City”. The Los Angeles Times, 9 February 2018. Digital Image

WOMEN ORGANIZING RESOURCES KNOWLEDGE AND SERVICES

W.O.R.K.S. is a non-profit organization formed in 1998 by five women wanting to help disadvantaged residents and improve their communities through developing high quality affordable rental housing as well as transitional housing in Los Angeles County

(WORKSusa.org). Along with developing affordable housing units, W.O.R.K.S. supports programs that recognize that health, healthy food access and sustainable environments go hand and hand with safe, decent housing for those in need. The group works on behalf of families with children, seniors, transitional aged youth, individuals and families with specials needs (WORKSusa.org). Over its twenty-year history W.O.R.K.S. has developed over twenty-two affordable housing projects and over 1,440 affordable housing units.

W.O.R.K.S.’ history and experience in the county has given credit to the organization to lead the development of the Lincoln Heights 5. W.O.R.K.S. hopes that LH5 will be a step in the right direction in addressing the need for affordable housing in this neighborhood.

PURPOSE

Over the last year the W.O.R.K.S. team held outreach sessions with the Lincoln

Heights community to understand the community’s opinions about The Lincoln Heights 5 development proposal. One of the requirements of W.O.R.K.S. from the city of Los

Angeles for the LH5 development plan is to incorporate community engagement throughout their development process (Cedillo 2017). Through these sessions the

W.O.R.K.S. team has learned some community groups and residents are distrustful of the

LH5 development plan because they fear new market rate units will be developed instead of the affordable housing units that W.O.R.K.S. and the city has promised (Lank 2018).

Some residents are worried about the parking spots the neighborhood will lose when the

five developments are constructed according to conversations with the W.O.R.K.S. team.

In response, the W.O.R.K.S. team has spent the last year trying to bridge the gap between community knowledge about the LH5 proposal. W.O.R.K.S. has chosen to take an active stance against the rumors surrounding the LH5 project and are working to change to conversation with the Lincoln Height community.

The research from this project is descriptive and meant to be a foundational document for the W.O.R.KS. team to support their efforts to build community understanding and support for the Lincoln Heights 5 development proposal. This report is not meant to be an exhaustive study into every housing issue in Lincoln Heights, but rather it is focused on the affordable housing need in Lincoln Heights as it relates to gentrification and displacement through the lens of Lincoln Heights’ demographic, housing and economic assessment. The W.O.R.K.S. team wants this client project to support their communication strategy to the community through creating tools they can use during their future planned community outreach sessions. The communication tools will articulate how LH5 will address the affordable housing needs of the Lincoln Heights community and the research from this report will help the W.O.R.K.S. team make data informed decisions for the LH5 developments. The W.O.R.K.S. team will be given an online presentation called a story map—created for small and large group outreach sessions that will include sections mapping gentrification and displacement. W.OR.K.S. will all receive a hard copy leaflet for residents, community members, neighbors, etc. to reference after meeting with the W.O.R.K.S. team during their future engagement outreach. The leaflet will contain the same information presented in the story map. The team specifically requested the creation of these communication tools from this project as they are strategically looking to build

support for LH5 at this stage of their development and want to reach out to Lincoln Heights residents using multiple outreach tools.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Problems with Affordable Housing

Los Angeles, like other metropolitan centers around the country, has become unaffordable to many of its residents. Californians are feeling more of a strain on their finances because of housing costs (Baldassare et al, 2017). The solution to aiding residents’ ability to rent or purchase a home in this city has been to call for more affordable housing development. There are varying ideas as to the positive impact affordable housing has on the unaffordability problem in Los Angeles. Gabriel Metcalf describes affordable housing in expensive cities as “sandcastles before the tide” (Metcalf, 2018). He states that affordable housing policy has a small impact compared to the larger problem of the overall housing market and those underlying issues need to be addressed to bring more affordable options to residents in large cities (Metcalf, 2018). To him, efforts to bring affordable housing to an expensive city can be undermined by planning policy that makes housing more expensive by restricting the development of new units, (2018). He argues that changes to housing policy including localized control over land use and spending more money on social housing are important additions to building affordable housing that should not be overlooked (2018).

Like Metcalf’s research and ultimate arguments, Andrew Aurand is a proponent of a strategy employing greater density, different housing types and mixed land-use to better meet the housing needs of low-income residents in cities needing affordable housing.

Aurand argues that ‘smart growth’ in neighborhoods will most likely have included a greater number of affordable rental units (Aurant, 2010). However, Aurand does state that greater residential density and a variety of housing types on their own are not the most efficient or effective tool to increase the quality of affordable housing units and that including multi-unit structures are a key component of developing different housing types,

(2010).

Deciding the kind of affordable housing to develop is only one side of the problem.

Affordable housing builders must also contend with the price of developing this type of housing. The issue with developing affordable housing is building an affordable product while also accounting for the rise in land cost, rise in material and labor costs and financing which all can create develop issues (Strachan, 1996). Financing affordable housing developments are essential to seeing them constructed and high need residents moving into the units. Cities have often used low-income tax credits to support the development of affordable housing as well as tax exempt bonds to finance their development (Guggenheim,

1999). What is clear is that paying for affordable housing developments requires precise planning, support and investment.

Impacts of Affordable Housing

Once affordable housing units are developed and constructed in communities it is important to observe how that housing impacts the community with the hope these developments have a positive impact for the residents. Ways to think about the impact for affordable housing in a community is to observe the decrease in the number of residents that are burden by housing costs. The department of Housing and Urban Development

(HUD) describes families that pay more than thirty percent of their total income to housing

as cost burden.

Affordable housing developments can impact residents’ health. Garland et al write

affordable housing developments that integrate active design (ad) into their units positively

impact residents. They summarize that ad strategies can easily be incorporated into

affordable housing developments, increasing opportunities for physical activity, for

example, like the use of stairwells, to improves individuals’ weight (2018). The authors

conducted the pilot study that looked at the body mass index or BMI of tenants in ad

designed affordable housing units and compared them to tenants in non-ad designed

affordable housing units all in the Bronx, New York. The authors concluded that residents

in ad affordable housing units saw their physical activity increase and an increase the

overall health of those residents in comparison to the residents in non-ad units (2018).

Residents get multiple benefits from well designed and planned affordable housing

developments. Authors Vega et al say older residents with limited incomes greatly benefit from affordable housing in a community, (2016). Vega et al summarize that the current generation looking towards retirement is a large portion of the American population. This population will live off a fixed income that will have to cover multiple costs including rising health costs and housing. Vega et al site a report from the National Academy of

Sciences that states there is a growing gap in United States life expectancy between the lowest and highest income earning of older Americans (2015). The study also uses an

Elder Economic Security Standard Index to analyze the income security of older

Californians. The study found that housing costs was the main contributor to the economic

struggle of low-income older adults, (Vega, 2015). The authors conclude that because

housing causes the largest financial burden for older adults, increasing the number of

affordable housing units would have the greatest impact on the economic security of low- income older adults. Vega et al suggest intervention policies, like supporting construction of new affordable housing developments or increasing rental subsidies, will support the accessibility of affordable housing for older adults. Affordable housing availability supports the health of those residents living in the developments and by extension the entire community.

Effects of Gentrification/Displacement

Studies on gentrification abound within today’s urban planning field.

Displacement is often associated with gentrification and is equally researched.

Communities that have or are currently experiencing gentrification know the impacts this

change will have on residents from their housing options, to their social capital and

educational and economic opportunities. Alan Morris writing from the Institute of Public

Policy and Governance (University of Technology), in Sydney, Australia conducted

research on the effects of gentrification and impacts of displacement. He specifically

researched how gentrification and displacement impacted public housing tenants in the

inner city of Sydney. He interviewed dozens of residents at the public housing complex in

Sydney, recording their stories about how recent gentrification in their neighborhood

impacted their lives. In 2017 he wrote that his interviewees’ place attachment was deep

and the announcement of removal and moving process were devastating. Morris reminds

his readers that gentrification and displacement are not only a result of public policy, but

there is a “human cost” to gentrification and displacement that should be at the top of

consideration for policy makers (Morris 2017). Morris notes the residents who move because of gentrification has priced them out and are displaced from their neighborhood often move to inadequate or overcrowded housing in areas far from their original home in a place where they have no social networks, (2017).

Author H. Shellae Versey describes the effect of gentrification as compromising social capital for aging seniors, particularly low-income African Americans in ethnic- minority neighborhoods. Their neighborhood has provided them with social capital, place of belonging and a strong sense of solidarity and trust. As a result of gentrification, aging seniors face housing insecurity and consequently face disruption to their social networks

(Versey, 2018). Versey ultimately says gentrification is a housing market process. Low income neighborhoods transition into higher income neighborhoods because of residents migrating, yet those older residents that want to age in place face isolation from a diminished social circle (2018).

Displacement may manifest in different forms. In their article “Gentrification,

Education and Exclusionary Displacement in East London” from the International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, authors Butler, Hamnett and Ramsden describe effects of displacement as exclusionary and impacting school choice for residents in East London

(2013). The authors argue education displacement, not just housing displacement, continues to be carried out against less powerful groups and increasing the middle class as well.

Context of Gentrification and Displacement in Lincoln Heights

In late 2018 the Urban Land Institute published an advisory technical assistance report about the North Broadway corridor in the Lincoln Heights neighborhood. The

report assesses the challenges and opportunities the neighborhood faces, keeping in mind the redevelopment investments that are under consideration that would impact the corridor and impact the overall economic market of Lincoln Heights. The report also gives recommendations about how to support the health and wealth of the neighborhood without displacing residents (Estolono et al, 2018). The report researched five areas in

Lincoln Heights that are used to guide the advisory boards recommendations for the neighborhood including the topics of market forces, branding, finance, proximity to anchor institutions and the public realm. One of the recommendations from the report that would impact the development of affordable housing in Lincoln Heights is a change to zoning that would support the development of “workforce and middle-income housing opportunities” (Estolono et al, 2018). There has been a lack of new home production in

Lincoln Heights, rising rents on existing units, causing a lack in affordability for residents. City wide, current city land use and zoning regulation support the development of luxury and market rate housing, as opposed to affordable developments (Estolono et al, 2018). The tap report states that currently the system of land use and zoning regulations in Lincoln Heights obstructs the investment needed to develop the housing that will be necessary to house the next generation of Lincoln Heights residents. A thriving, dense residential community is also desirable to support the businesses located along North Broadway (Estolono et al, 2018). The Urban Land Institute recommends that the city of Los Angeles create a first-of-its kind density bonus program tying new development incentives to the development of new workforce, middle-income housing.

Lincoln Heights is experiencing the transformation that nearby Boyle Heights is facing and what Highland Park and Chinatown have already faced. Those neighborhoods

have transformed or in the case of Boyle Heights, is in the process of gentrifying. Boyle

Heights has over the last several years struggled to handle the displacement of its longtime residents. Some residents have chosen to leave the neighborhood and search for more affordable options to live while other residents have chosen to stay in the community and fight for its identity. For example, residents have protested the opening of new art galleries and coffee shops in Boyle Heights, to hold off the seemingly inevitable process of gentrification (Mejia et al, 2018).

Economic investment, improvement of city services and beautification of the community is always a priority for longtime residents. However, residents fear being priced out of their neighborhood as an effect from the rising costs to rent or buy a home.

The Los Angeles County has several options to address the need for affordable housing.

Increasing the overall supply of housing stock is an option including spending more money on social housing to address underlying issues in the market that attribute to the lack of affordability in a neighborhood (Metcalf 2018). Building multi-unit developments are an important component to increasing the supply of affordable housing units (Aurand 2010).

CHAPTER 2

RESEARCH AND DATA COLLECTION

This project seeks to prepare a descriptive analysis and assessment of the demographic profile, housing and economic needs of the Lincoln Heights neighborhood including how the trends of gentrification and displacement are impacting the community.

I collected data using the US Census and 2013-2017 American Community Survey five- year estimates (ACS) and I used mapping tools from the Urban Displacement Project to understand projected trends of gentrification and displacement in the neighborhood. The

W.O.R.K.S. team wants a data driven understanding of the current demographic, housing and economic condition of Lincoln Heights to better help them with their development and communication plan for the Lincoln Heights 5.

I downloaded batches of the census and ACS data from the website IPUMS.org which houses and organizes such data. In addition, I used census and ACS data from the

University of Southern California Price Center for Social Innovation, Neighborhood Data for Social Change (NDSC). NDSC is a platform that describes trends and challenges in

Los Angles neighborhoods through different means including maps, charts and data analysis. I chose variables that would help me understand and describe “changes in demographic, housing and economic inventory characteristics of a housing market” including “counts and estimates of employment, population, households” and housing stock (huduser.gov). I used the Housing Needs Assessment Components variables list recommended by the California Department of Housing and Community Development to choose the variables to research. The variables present a comprehensive list of housing and economic elements that affect a city or neighborhood’s function. In this report the

variables are divided into sections that support my research into each of the three topics

(demographics, housing and economics). The sections are labeled Demographic

Characteristics, Households and Economic Data Profile. In the section Economic Data

Profile, I created a subsection entitled Rental Market. I created a rental market subsection after learning that most Lincoln Heights residents are renters. I thought it was important

to gather data that reflects this reality to better understand how the rental market impacts

the overall economic assessment of the neighborhood. For each section I compared data

available from 2010—or from the year 2000 in a few of cases—and the most recent data

available from 2017, to see potential trends in the change or lack thereof during the last

seven years in Lincoln Heights according to the variables I explored. The research

variables I used to gather data are listed in their categories below.

DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS

The Demographic Characteristics I researched provide data on the overall

population number in Lincoln Heights, the race/ethnicity, age and gender breakdown of

residents and the educational level residents have obtained. This data helps the W.O.R.K.S.

team understand their audience and in their level of experience their audience to help

prepare their future outreach sessions.

● Population size

● Race

● Gender

● Age

● Educational attainment

HOUSEHOLDS

The Household variables help the W.O.R.K.S. team understand the kind of homeownership represented in Lincoln Heights from the household type like single parent households or female headed households and the overall percentage of homeowners in the neighborhood. This data further communicates who the audience is (ex. Single parent homeowners) to help W.O.R.K.S craft their message. W.O.R.K.S learns the overall availability of homes to purchase and occupy and the average purchase prices for available homes in the neighborhood. The W.O.R.K.S. team will use the household data to guide and articulate the need for affordable housing intervention in the neighborhood based on the lack of new homes being building in the neighborhood, lack of homeowners and rising home prices.

● % of homeowners

● Household type

● Total housing units

● Total new homes built

● Vacancy rates

● Existing home values

ECONOMIC DATA PROFILE

The Economic Data Profile variables describe the depth of the financial condition of residents. Average income levels in the neighborhood and the percentage of the resident population that has been impacted by price increases of housing units leading to financially struggling households (ex those identified as living below the poverty line or homes under

foreclosure) will be described. This data section also details the rental market in the neighborhood because most residents rent their homes and are impacted by changes to the rental market.

• Median Income Level

• % of Cost burden households

• Foreclosure Rates

• % of low-income population

• % of homeless population

o RENTAL MARKET

▪ # of Renters

▪ Median rent costs

▪ Ellis Act Evictions

▪ Existing Affordable Housing

To understand the impact and classification of gentrification and displacement in

Lincoln Heights I used the mapping tool from the Urban Displacement Project (UDP). The

University of California at Berkeley in partnership with the University of California at Los

Angeles and Portland State University created the Urban Displacement Project in 2016.

The Project works to understand the nature of gentrification and displacement according to their website urbandisplacement.org. The organization created tools to understand gentrification and displacement in different cities and counties. One of the tools the project has created is a map that describes neighborhood change and gentrification. The project categorizes the neighborhoods from its research as disadvantaged, gentrifying or gentrified.

The Urban Displacement Project evaluates the presence of the following indicators to classify neighborhoods including at least any combination of three of the following characteristics: a high percentage of low-income households, renters and nonwhite residents in a neighborhood and a low percentage of college educated residents in the same neighborhood. The neighborhood characteristics would then be compared to the nearest regional median. I compared Lincoln Heights and Los Angeles County—which served as the regional median for this report. The comparison is listed below in Figure 3. Looking specifically at Los Angeles County the project states that the number of gentrified neighborhoods by census tract level has increased in the county by 16% from the last decade of the 20th century through 2015. Using the Urban Displacement Project classification, Lincoln Heights is categorized as a disadvantage neighborhood. The project says that neighborhoods categorized as disadvantaged are susceptible to gentrification.

VARIABLES LINCOLN HEIGHTS LOS ANGELES

COUNTY

Low-Income Households 20 17

College Educated 19 31

Renters 73 50+

Nonwhite 94 48

Figure 3: Percentage of Residents in Lincoln Heights and Los Angeles County.

In comparison to Los Angeles County data, Lincoln Heights has a higher share of low- income households, less college education residents, more renters than in the county and an overwhelmingly nonwhite population.

COMMUNICATION TOOLS

The W.O.R.K.S. team has asked me to create a presentation for their use during their future planned outreach meetings with community leaders, residents and stakeholders.

The presentation will communicate the descriptive data I have collected to build support for the Lincoln Heights 5 developments through illustrating the need for affordable housing in the community based on the need demonstrated from the data, to Lincoln Heights residents. Originally, I intended to create a standard Power Point presentation using typical pictures copied to slides. The W.O.R.KS. team stated they wanted a presentation that would stand out to their audience. Using software from ArcGIS online, I chose to create a presentation outlet in the form of a story map; a story map is an engaging way to tell a narrative. A story map includes scrolling text, images and multimedia content. This project’s story map is formatted in a cascade scroll in which the presentation (text, pictures and maps) will scroll up the screen displaying the information. The W.O.R.K.S. team will have access and editing privileges to the map to translate the text to languages other than the English it is written in for their audience.

Paired with the Story Map presentation will be a hard copy leaflet. The leaflet will serve as a companion to the presentation and will be available to all who attend future meetings with the W.O.R.K.S. team regarding the Lincoln Heights 5. The leaflet will display the same data and information from the presentation in a concise manner for the intended audience. Every person attending the eventual presentation will walk away with a hard copy of the information (in the form of the leaflet) to reference, review and share with other members of the community, their family and friends and serve as a physical reminder about the Lincoln Heights 5 developments. I am using templates from the online

creative website Canva.com to create the leaflet. The W.O.R.K.S team will have editing

privileges to the leaflet, just like the story map presentation, to translate the text from

English on the leaflet for Lincoln Heights residents.

COLLECTED DATA

Demographic Characteristics

Population

Using the US Census and the American Community Survey I found that the Lincoln

Heights’ total population in 2010 was below 30,000 residents at 25,270 people (Schoen

2019). The population slightly decreased over the course of the next seven years to an

estimated total population at 25,250 residents in 2017. Lincoln Heights currently accounts

for less than .0025 percent of the total population of Los Angeles County, which is a little

over ten million people (US Census). Lincoln Heights is a densely populated neighborhood with over 25,250 residents residing in only about 2.5 square miles (Smith 2018). The

population has remained relatively stable over the last seven years. The male and female

population in Lincoln Heights is almost split evenly, with men out numbering women by

slightly over 1%. The median age of the total population has remained around the same

over the last decade, at 33 in 2010 and 35.6 in 2017 (Schoen 2019). Lincoln Heights is a

young population and is like the median age group of Los Angeles County which is around

34 years old.

Ethnicity

Lincoln Heights has long been a neighborhood in which Hispanic and Latinix residents have made their home (Mejia et al 2018). In 2010 this group of residents totaled around 68.47% of the population (see fig 4), and nearly the same in 2017 at 68.55% according to the US Census. Residents of Asian descent totaled slightly over a quarter of the population in 2010 at 26.57%. In 2017, the American Community Survey results states

Asian American residents decreased slightly to around 25.53% (see fig. 5). White or

Caucasian American residents, Black or African American residents and those classified as other (including Native America, Pacific Islander, Native Alaskan residents) totaled less than 4% of the Lincoln Heights population in both 2010 and 2017 according to the US

Census and the American Community Survey. In comparison to other neighborhoods within Los Angeles County, Lincoln Heights can be described as one of the least ethnically diverse (Schoen 2019). The larger Los Angeles county population totals over 10 million residents with Hispanic/Latinix residents totaling over 4.8 million people, White or

Caucasian residents total over 5.3 million, Black or African American residents total

828,981 and Asian American residents total 1.5 million people demonstrating broader diversity in the county overall (US Census).

Other 0% Asian 27%

White Black 4% 0% Hispanic 69%

Hispanic Black White Asian Other

Figure 4: Ethnicity of Lincoln Heights Residents in 2010: Schoen, 2019

Other 0% Asian 26%

White Black 3% 1% Hispanic 70%

Hispanic Black White Asian Other

Figure 5: Ethnicity of Lincoln Heights Residents in 2017: Schoen, 2019

Educational Attainment

I classified the educational attainment of residents in categories as receiving less than a high school diploma, those who have earned a high school diploma and residents

that have earned a post-secondary degree to simplify the data collection process for this report. I did not specify the kind of post-secondary degree residents have earned whether a bachelors, masters or PhD for the same reason. In 2010, the US Census showed most residents—10,148—who are 18 years and older earned less than their high school diploma.

2,050 residents earned their high school diploma by 2010 and over 800 residents earned a post-secondary degree (see fig 6 below).

Less than high school 10,148

high school diploma 2,050

post-secondary degree 824

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Number of Residents

Figure 6: Education Attainment of Lincoln Heights Residents in 2010: Schoen, 2019

By 2017, survey responses from the American Community Survey states the number of residents with less than a high school diploma dropped to 9,667 people (see fig.7). Over 7,000 residents earned their high school diploma and more than 4,000 have earned a post-secondary degree by 2017 (Schoen 2019).

not graduated from HS 9,667

high school diploma 7,096

post secondary degree 4,144

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Number of Residents

Figure 7: Educational Attainment of Lincoln Heights Residents in 2017: Schoen, 2019

Households

The US Census states total number of housing units (homes and rental units) in

Lincoln Heights in 2010 numbered around 7,306 for a population of slightly over 25,200 people. In 2010, 197 of the housing units were classified as vacant. By 2017, the estimated total number of housing units grew to 7,769 (Schoen 2019). The city estimated that around

133 of those units were vacant. Figure 8 below shows the comparison between the number of housing units to the population during the years 2010 and 2017.

30,000 25,270 25,250 25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000 7,306 7,769

5,000

0 2010 2017

Housing Units Population

Figure 8: Number of housing units compared to population: Schoen, 2019

In 2010, 21.49% of the population owned their share of the occupied housing units. By

2017, resident homeownership grew by four percent to 25% of the occupied units (Schoen

2019). Although homeownership increased, it is safe to say Lincoln Heights has been and continues to be a renter’s market. Currently, the average cost to purchase a home in Lincoln

Heights is between $444,000-$569,400 according to the Zillow estimate from Zillow.com.

The average household size in 2010 was 3.60 people her household and remained relatively the same for the next seven years. In 2017, the average household size was 3.36 people per household. In 2010, 32.27% of those households were considered overcrowded.

By 2017, 19.92% of Lincoln Heights homes were considered overcrowded (Schoen 2019).

Overcrowded households are defined by the Department of Housing and Urban

Development as having more than one person per room.

Most of Lincoln Heights households are classified as multi-family households, meaning most residents live with their family members. Over 40.17% of the households

in Lincoln Heights were children living in a single parent home in 2010 and that number remained the same by 2017 with 40.58% of households were children living with a single parent (Schoen 2019).

Homes in Lincoln Heights tend be older—over 30 years old, with most the homes built prior to 1989. However, in 2017 survey results from ACS says there were 54 new residential building dwelling permits approved by the city of Los Angeles in the Lincoln

Heights neighborhood. It is unclear from the US Census or ACS how many of the new building permits were for single family homes or apartment buildings and it is unclear if those permits were for market rate housing or for housing meant to be affordable or subsidized. Subsidized housing is housing with government supported housing assist programs attached. Subsidized housing can be section 8 vouchers, low income tax credits, public housing, etc. according to the Housing and Urban Development. In 2017 the ACS survey results state the total share of subsidized housing in Lincoln Heights was 440 units

(see fig. 9).

48% 52%

Housing Choice Vouchers Other Subsidized Housing

Figure 9: 2017 Subsidized housing in Lincoln Heights: Schoen, 2019

Of those 440 subsidized units, 212 of those were housing choice vouchers and the other

228 were a combination of section 8 vouchers, rental assistance programs, capital advance, etc. There were no income tax credits used for rental assistance in Lincoln Heights in 2017.

Similarly, there were no recorded public housing developments in the neighborhood in

2017 according the American Community Survey results.

Economic Data Profile

The economic profile of Lincoln Heights is important for this report to detail to understand the financial health of residents to describe the economic environment. This report takes into consideration data on the area median income level, the percent of cost burden households, the percent of low-income population and the percentage of people experiencing homeless, as well as foreclosure rates. All these factors influence the need and for affordable housing in Lincoln Heights. The economic profile will show that residents in Lincoln Heights are earning low wages and paying more of their income to living expenses cause rent burden households. Housing security is threatened by a growing number of households that live below the poverty line and contribute to the growing number of homeless populations in Los Angeles County overall.

The median income level in Lincoln Heights over the last decade has remained around $30,000 per year. In 2010, the US Census estimated the median income for residents was around $30,379 per year. The following seven years saw a small growth in median income to $33,461 according the ACS. For comparison, the median income level of Los Angeles County is around $61,000 (2013-2017 ACS). Lincoln Heights residents earn nearly less than half of the median income earned by all residents in Los Angeles

County. Most residents in Lincoln Heights are renters making less than $40,000 a year and

they must stretch their income to pay rent on housing units that cost well over $1,000.

Lincoln Heights residents earn considerably less in comparison to other

neighborhoods in the county and over the last decade more than a third of Lincoln Heights

residents have been classified as living in poverty. In 2010, the US Census estimated

32.60% of those residents lived 100% below the poverty threshold in Los Angeles County.

In 2017, survey results from the American Community Survey estimated that 30.69% of

residents lived 100% below the poverty threshold (Schoen 2019). For comparison, in 2010

15.17% of residents in Los Angeles County lived 100% below the poverty threshold and

in 2017 17% of those same residents lived below the poverty threshold. The percentage of

residents living in poverty in Lincoln Heights has remained consistent for nearly a decade.

Poverty levels effect multiple areas of residents’ lives including residents’ ability to pay for housing. The most recent data on foreclosure rates in Lincoln Heights I could find was from 2014 and 2015 from the American Community Survey. In 2014 there were 26 recorded foreclosures and in the following year there were 19 recorded foreclosures.

Households may not face as many foreclosures but are rent burden.

64.00% 61.77% 62.00%

60.00% 59.34%

58.00%

56.10% 56.00% 54.20% 54.00% Percentage of Population of Percentage 52.00%

50.00% 2010 2017

Lincoln Heights Los Angeles County

Figure 10: Percentage of Rent Burden Population in Lincoln Heights: Schoen, 2019

As stated previously, the Department of Housing and Urban Development describes rent cost burden households as those that pay more than 30% of their income to housing costs. Figure 10 above graphs the percentages of the Lincoln Heights population compared to Los Angeles County in 2010 and 2017. In 2010, 59.34% of households in

Lincoln Heights were rent burden and that number has grown since (Schoen et al 2019).

In 2017, 61.77% of households were rent burden according the ACS results. The estimated total number of residents that are experiencing a dire financial condition such as homelessness is nearly 300 people.

Rental Market

Lincoln Heights is a renter’s market (see fig.11). Most residents are classified as renters, not homeowners. In 2010, renters occupied 5,772 units; nearly 80% of the population that year were renters. The rental trend has continued in Lincoln Heights to the

present day. Most of the population remained renters in 2017, although that number slightly decreased to 75% of the Lincoln Heights residents. Renters, in 2017, occupied

5,827 of the available units (Schoen et al 2019).

90% 78% 80% 75% 70% 60% 50%

40% 30% 25% 21%

Percentage of Population of Percentage 20% 10% 0% Homeowners Renters Homeowners Renters 2010 2017

Figure 11: Homeowners compared to Renters in 2010-2017: Schoen, 2019

Since most of the residents in Lincoln Heights are renters, this report takes into consideration how rental costs impacts this community. In 2010, the median rent cost in the neighborhood was $854 (Schoen et al 2019). The USC Neighborhood Data for Social

Change has recorded rent data only through 2016 regarding median rent cost. The median rent cost in 2016 was $1,015. I wanted more recent data on rent costs, so I compiled rent data from several home renting/purchasing sites including Zillow.com, Rent.com,

Apartments.com and Realtor.com to compare the current cost to rent an apartment or unit in Lincoln Heights. The current average cost to rent an apartment home in Lincoln Heights according to an average from those sites is $1,095. The lowest rent cost I found through the four sites was an apartment for $1,072. Lincoln Heights residents are extremely

vulnerable to any changes or fluctuations in the rental market considering most residents depend on the availability and cost of units.

Housing security in Lincoln Heights has also been impacted by evictions. The

W.O.R.K.S. team requested this report include information regarding the number Ellis Act evictions in Lincoln Heights. The Ellis Act is a law that allows landlords to evict tenants if the landlord intends to no longer rent to other tenants under rent-controlled ordinances

(HCIDLA 2019). Many landlords have used this law to evict their current tenants in favor of more lucrative opportunities (Ellend 2014). The Anti Eviction Mapping Project has recorded all the evictions due to the Ellis Act in cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Over the last 18 years the city of Los Angeles has lost over 25,000 rent-controlled units and numerous families have been evicted from their homes (Ellend 2014). In the Lincoln

Heights neighborhood, there have been at least 56 evictions counted from 2001 through the present day.

CHAPTER 3 DISCUSSION

This report has sought to understand and describe the kind of demographic, housing and economic changes that has occurred in Lincoln Heights between 2010 and 2017 and to frame the issue gentrification and displacement in the neighborhood. Across Los

Angeles County, residents are facing a growing housing crisis (Goulding 2019).

Similarly, Lincoln Heights residents are facing housing and economic challenges that will impact longtime residents’ ability to remain in the community (Mejia et al 2018).

Through my research I learned most Lincoln Heights residents are renters and as renters they are extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in the market and lack protections from increasing rents and cost of living standards leaving almost three quarters of residents rent burden (Schoen 2019). Lincoln Heights residents earn less than half of the income earned in the greater Los Angeles County and more than a quarter of Lincoln

Heights residents are living below the poverty line. They are facing low wages combined with rising costs. The number of available occupied housing units is less than the overall population, leading to overcrowded homes. New homes have not been constructed in

Lincoln Heights at a rate that will keep up with rising costs. Residents’ struggling economic condition and the current lack of affordable housing in the community has created an opportunity to develop more housing. The Lincoln Heights 5 proposal will bring needed affordable housing to the neighborhood according to the W.O.R.K.S team.

The city of Los Angeles continues to implement policy that supports greater density by building new housing to combat the housing crisis. Los Angeles built three times the amount of new homes than any other California city in 2018 (Chlland 2019). High density and affordable housing development are not unprecedented in Los Angles. More

than a decade ago Los Angeles considered new zoning ordinances for the downtown area to build high density, mixed use developments that would include at least 20% affordable housing units (Perry 2007). The LH5 is a city initiative aligned with building more housing units. The Urban Land Institute’s tap report on the Lincoln Heights neighborhood states there has been a lack of new home production in Lincoln Heights, rising rents on existing units, causing a lack in affordability for residents and suggest a change to zoning ordinances to create incentives for new developments that would be affordable in the neighborhood (Estolono et al, 2018). W.O.R.K.S. wants to effectively communicate to Lincoln Heights residents that the LH5 will be the affordable housing developments needed in the area.

The housing crisis in Lincoln Heights is compounded by the vulnerability the neighborhood faces because of gentrification. The Urban Displacement Project classifies

Lincoln Heights as a disadvantaged neighborhood and susceptible to gentrification.

Residents see changes that they feel are impacting the culture of their neighborhood including new businesses opening on North Broadway (Mejia et al 2018). The local magazine Los Angeles Eater describes a new coffee shop that opened in 2017 on North

Broadway called B Twentyfour. The coffee shop has been called a new player in the eastside coffee movement and bringing coffeeshop culture to the neighborhood (Elliot,

2017). Lincoln Kitchen and Tap is another example of a new kind of development that recently opened. The establishment is a craft brewery that opened in 2017 also on North

Broadway that replaced an old seafood restaurant (Elliot, 2017). Each new development represents ways in which Lincoln Heights will continue to change and affect the character of the neighborhood. The LH5 will be developed in the middle of the

community around the corner from North Broadway. The W.O.R.K.S. team has made community outreach essential to their development plan to ensure they understand residents’ opinions and concerns about the developments and to ensure LH5 will not negatively impact the neighborhood or its character.

CHAPTER 4 CONCLUSION

This report describes the demographic, housing and economic needs of Lincoln

Heights and analyzes implications of gentrification and displacement in the neighborhood.

Lincoln Heights is facing an affordable housing crisis and the city of Los Angeles is attempting to address the crisis through approving the development of five affordable housing projects (LH5) on city owned parking lots in the community. W.O.R.K.S is developing the project plan for the LH5. This report serves as a foundational document for their development plan, providing the group with descriptive information about Lincoln

Heights. The neighborhood is old with a dense population of residents that earn low wages compared to Los Angeles County. Residents are rent burden and live in overcrowded housing units and they continue to see a rising cost of living. The community needs affordable housing, but some residents are resistant to the LH5. In response the W.O.R.K.S team is reaching out to the community to communicate how the LH5 will address their housing needs using the two communication tools created from this project. The data described in this report is presented in the story map presentation and leaflet given to the

W.O.R.K.S team. The communication tools will be used during their future planned community outreach sessions and W.O.R.K.S. hopes will help build the support they want for the LH5. A future study should be conducted on the affect the tools had on residents during outreach sessions. This could lead to better understanding of how to build affective outreach to residents. This report demonstrates the need for affordable housing intervention in Lincoln Heights through understanding how the trends in demographics, housing and economics are impacting residents. I recommend further study should be conducted in

those three areas as the W.O.R.K.S team develops their specific plan for each development of LH5.

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APPENDIX: STORY MAP/LEAFLET PROJECT PRODUCTS

Story Map:

Online URL: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/index.html?appid=1131d2e5b3a44b9db45d7ad3 e552578b

Taylor, Brittany. “Beauty Box”. March 2019. JPEG

Taylor, Brittany: “BtwentyFour”. March 2019. JPEG

Taylor, Brittany. Kitchen Lincoln Tap, March, 2019 JPEG

Taylor,Brittany. Story Map. April 2019. JPEG.

Leaflet (The sample is on the next page)