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Title Page Format LONG TERM STRATEGIC ISSUES FACING THE TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY: DECEMBER 2010 WORKSHOP REPORT Requested by: American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Standing Committee on Research Prepared by: Peter Plumeau & Joe Castiglione Resource Systems Group, Inc. Burlington, Vermont Hyun-A Park & Perry Lubin Spy Pond Partners Arlington, Massachusetts Susan Zielinski SMART, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan March 2011 The information contained in this report was prepared as part of NCHRP Project 20-83A, National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Transportation Research Board. Acknowledgements This study was requested by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), and conducted as part of National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project 20-83A on behalf of the AASHTO Standing Committee on Research. The NCHRP is supported by annual voluntary contributions from the state Departments of Transportation. The report was prepared by Peter Plumeau of Resource Systems Group, Inc. of Burlington, Vermont, with assistance from Hyun-A Park and Perry Lubin of Spy Pond Partners of Arlington, Massachusetts and Susan Zielinski of SMART at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. The work was guided by a Standing Committee on Research task group that included: . Gary Allen, Virginia Department of Transportation, Chair . Mara Campbell, Missouri Department of Transportation . Debra Elston, Federal Highway Administration . John Halikowski, Arizona Department of Transportation . David Kuehn, Federal Highway Administration . Sandra Q. Larson, Iowa Department of Transportation . Susan Martinovich, Nevada Department of Transportation . James T. McDonnell, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials . Leni Oman, Washington State Department of Transportation . Harold R. “Skip’ Paul, Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development . Neil J. Pederson, Maryland State Highway Administration . Glenn E. Roberts, New Hampshire Department of Transportation . Robert Sack, New York Department of Transportation The project was managed by Lori L. Sundstrom, NCHRP Senior Program Officer. Disclaimer The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board or its sponsors. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This document is not a report of the Transportation Research Board or of the National Research Council. Table of Contents 1. Proceedings - Workshop on Long Term Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry, December 8-9, 2010 2. Appendices A. Scan Report: Non-Transportation-Related Scientific and Technological Advances that May Affect DOTs in 30 to 50 Years (NCHRP 20-83A, Task 1) B. Overview of the NCHRP 20-83 Project Series: Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry C. Workshop Agenda D. Workshop Attendees Proceedings: Workshop on Long Term Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry December 8-9, 2011 Washington, DC Workshop on Long-Term Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry – Final Report 1.0 INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS The workshop opened with greetings and introductory comments from TRB staff, leaders of AASHTO Standing Committee on Research (SCOR) and the NCHRP 20-83A principal investigator/workshop facilitator. John Halikowski, Director of the Arizona DOT and Chair, SCOR: Mr. Halikowski described the NCHRP program as being an ongoing success for DOTs, having consistently delivering many practical and useful solutions to contemporary problems. He then noted how the 20-83 series projects are different from previous efforts because of their future orientation. While acknowledging that the future may not be fully knowable, he explained that the goal of the 20- 83 projects is to help DOTs prepare for as well as influence the future by taking actions today.. Finally, he reminded participants of the importance of the 20-83 projects in terms of safety, jobs and other concerns, and then introduced . Sandra Larson, Director of the Iowa DOT Research and Technology Bureau, Vice-chair, SCOR, and 20-83 Task Force Member: Ms. Larson echoed Mr. Halikowski’s comments and thanked the hundreds of panel members who volunteer their time and make the NCHRP program possible. She explained that in March 2008, SCOR decided to take a look at long-term research needs over a 30-50 year time horizon. NCHRP retained a consultant to conduct a scan of megatrends and held a workshop to understand the potential implications of these trends. SCOR subsequently selected and funded seven projects. Ms. Larson noted that many of these projects had started fairly recently; thus, there was no expectation that project findings and/or recommendations would be presented during this workshop. Rather, the goal of the workshop is to understand what has been learned from these projects thus far, and to solicit thoughts on additional future- oriented research needs under the 20-83 program. Ms. Larson invited participants to participate freely in the discussion, ask questions and share observations. Lori Sundstrom, TRB Program Officer: Ms. Sundstrom provided an overview of workshop agenda. She explained that although this workshop will discuss seven of the 20-83 series projects, there is an eighth project that will be conducted by FHWA and which has been put under contract. She also thanked the 20-83 project principle investigators for their willingness share their progress thus far, because this workshop was not part of their original scope. Peter Plumeau, Resource Systems Group, NCHRP 20-83A Principal Investigator & Facilitator: Mr. Plumeau emphasized that this workshop is an opportunity for participants to think outside their comfort zones. He explained that the intent of the workshop is to not only learn about the status of the 20-83 research projects, but also to begin thinking about additional long term issues that agencies may choose to address. 2.0 PANEL ON NCHRP 20-83 SERIES PROJECTS - PROGRESS AND INFORMATION TO DATE The workshop began with a panel comprised of the Principal Investigators (PI) for each of the seven NHCRP 20-83 series research projects. The panel session began with each PI responding to a series of key questions about their projects. These responses were followed by an interactive panel-participant discussion facilitated by Peter Plumeau. Workshop Summary Page 1 Workshop on Long-Term Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry – Final Report Workshop Summary Page 2 Workshop on Long-Term Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry – Final Report QUESTION 1: WHAT IS THE SCOPE OF YOUR NCHRP 20-83 PROJECT? Project 1: Economic Changes Our first objective is to provide an overview of the driving forces to help DOTs understand freight for investment planning. Driving Future Freight Our second objective is to identify how to better enable and inform freight discussions at the national, state, multistate, Transportation, Chris Caplice, regional and other levels. The first deliverable was a set of expert-developed and practitioner-tested future scenarios. The MIT second deliverable is a set of six scenario planning workshops, held in geographically and contextually diverse locations. The third deliverable is “scenario planning in a box” – a set of collateral that any practitioner can use to facilitate a scenario planning exercise. Project 2: Expediting Future Our problem is to consider how DOTs can expedite the uptake of technologies and technological change. Due to the nature Technologies for Enhancing of technological innovation, the question is not what will happen over 40 years how DOTs can manage conditions of Transportation System perpetual change. We are focusing on methods to make DOTs and other transportation agencies more effective in assessing Performance, Steven Popper, technological trends that may affect the performance of the transportation system over the next 40 years. This means not RAND only doing more purposeful, transportation-oriented technology assessment, but also better integrating these assessments into the planning processes as well as understanding better how to handle the inherent uncertainties. Project 3: Long-Range Strategic The key operative words in our project objective are merging materials and technology. The panel asked us to do this Issues Affecting Preservation, around twelve areas of change. Examples of these areas of change include technology and innovation, environment, safety, Maintenance and Renewal of etc. We have started reviewing the literature and establishing a context around these areas of change, and will be Highway Infrastructure, Stuart developing some white papers and scenarios around these areas. Anderson, TTI1 Project 4: Effects of Changing The goal of the fourth project is to think about how energy will be used in transportation over a 30-50 year timeframe, Transportation Energy Supplies focusing on the roles of state DOTs and policy options. We have established four tasks, and we are just beginning phase 1, in and Alternative Fuel Sources on which we are looking at technology issues and trends that may impact energy use. We will then develop a range of plausible Transportation, Paul Sorensen, energy use futures, and evaluate them relative to the roles, mandates, and funding and operations of state DOTs. RAND Project 5: Climate Change and This project involves synthesizing current
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