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Energy Transition 101: Getting Back to Basics for Transitioning to a Low-Carbon Economy

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Energy Transition 101: Getting Back to Basics for Transitioning to a Low-Carbon Economy Energy Transition 101: Getting back to basics for transitioning to a low-carbon economy BRIEFING PAPER JULY 2020 Introduction FIGURE 1 Global energy sources (%) and previous energy transitions At the launch of the World Economic Forum’s Energy Transition Index 2020 (ETI 2020),1 the authors warned that although the 100 world’s energy transition has made progress in the past five Renewables years, the COVID-19 crisis risks derailing its long-term progress. It is therefore imperative that the momentum around the energy 90 Natural gas transition is not lost and the world remains focused to achieve 3rd the objectives of the Paris Agreement to combat climate change. 80 2nd Similar to the COVID-19 health crisis response, a successful 70 energy transition is driven by science and innovation, involves Crude oil a variety of solutions developed by a broad coalition of public 60 and private actors, and needs to overcome technical, economic and political challenges, while taking into consideration regional Coal differences that exist. 50 A successful energy transition also requires broad support 40 from society to implement the measures necessary to bend 1st energy transition the curve. This starts with creating a general understanding 30 of the challenges involved, potential solutions and measures, Traditional biofuels and the science behind those measures. However, with today’s 20 barrage of articles, opinions and reports, it can be hard to see the forest for the trees. Therefore, this article aims to get back to the basics and discuss the what, why, where, when, who and 10 how of the energy transition. 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 The ‘what’ Whereas the current energy transition is primarily driven by In generic terms, an energy transition involves a shift in the sustainability reasons, the previous transitions were mainly the sources of energy that satisfy global energy demand. The result of a push for economic prosperity, which is in turn closely current energy transition – from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy linked to energy access and consumption. To illustrate this last – is not the first energy transition the world has experienced. point, the average energy consumption per capita in OECD In fact, this is the fourth major transition to different energy countries is 183 gigajoules, whereas for non-OECD countries sources. The first (1830-1950) was the shift from traditional the average is 54 gigajoules.4 Particularly for developing biofuels (primarily wood) to coal, the second (1950-1980) nations, economic prosperity is as much a priority in the consisted of the development and adoption of refined oil energy transition as is the need to decarbonize. And this is an products, and the third (1980-2020) involved an increased important point: more than 800 million people – predominantly reliance on natural gas.2,3 in sub-Saharan Africa – are still living without access to electricity, and hundreds of millions more only have access to very limited or unreliable electricity.5 So increased energy supply and access to energy is a good thing; however, this needs to be addressed in parallel with lowering the emissions. FIGURE 2 Energy transition likely to reach 1.5˚C between 2030 and 2052, if current activity levels continue. Security Environmental Simply stated, global warming means that “there is more energy and access sustainability radiating down on the planet than there is radiating back out to space”.8 This amount of retained energy is influenced by a variety of climactic factors, including greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols (both anthropogenic, i.e. due to human activity, and natural, i.e. from volcanic eruptions) and others.9 Models not only indicate a strong correlation between observed Energy temperature increases and increased levels of such radiative Triangle forcing, but also show that factors with the strongest impact on temperature increases are anthropogenic GHGs.10 Here it must be noted that GHGs are not just CO2. In the energy transition debate, the focus is mostly on energy-related CO2 emissions, as they cover about two-thirds of global GHG 11 emissions. Other energy-related emissions are methane (CH4 – 6% of overall GHG emissions), which is mainly emitted through natural gas leakage and flaring, and some nitrous oxide (N2O – 1% of overall GHG emissions). The remaining, non-energy GHG emissions are primarily caused by agriculture. Economic development and growth FIGURE 3 Global GHG emissions, 2016 The current energy transition does not only involve a transition 6% to a low-carbon economy; it is much more complex than Energy CO2, 66% that. The World Economic Forum defines an effective energy 11% Non-energy CO2, 8% transition as “a timely transition towards a more inclusive, Energy CH , 6% sustainable, affordable and secure energy system that provides 4 6% solutions to global energy-related challenges, while creating Non-energy CH4, 11% value for business and society, without compromising the 66% 8% Non-energy N2O, 6% balance of the energy triangle.” Energy N2O, 1% In other words, although the current energy transition is mainly F-Gas, 2% driven by environmental sustainability concerns (i.e. climate change concerns), it will only be successful if it simultaneously provides energy security and access, and facilitates economic growth and development. The enormity of the task is also highlighted by the current COVID-19 crisis. The International Energy Agency (IEA) The ‘where’ expects global CO2 emissions to decline by 8% in 2020, which is a bit more than the required 6% annual reduction Just like the impacts of global warming are unequal, mostly required to achieve the Paris Agreement.6 However, the decline impacting the people living in less developed nations, the in 2020 is not because of structural changes, but rather driven energy-related CO2 emissions are also not equally distributed. by a temporary reduction in demand, as global energy demand Therefore, the debate warrants a closer look at where emissions is expected to decline by 6% in 2020. So, the challenge a are generated, both in terms of sectors as well as countries. hand is how to achieve a 6% reduction in emissions, while retaining economic growth and ensure the remaining 800 When looking at energy-related CO2 emissions through a sector million people get access to energy. lens, the focus is typically on power generation and personal vehicles. And rightfully so, as power generation is responsible for about 40% and light road transportation is responsible for 12 about 13% of total energy CO2 emissions. Good progress has The ‘why’ been made in these sectors. Renewable energy, such as solar and wind energy, are becoming increasingly competitive13 and The transition of the energy system towards low-carbon reports such as the BNEF EV Outlook14 argue that the rapidly energy is driven by the need to address climate change. The falling cost of batteries means that the total cost of ownership science supporting the need for decarbonization starts with of electric vehicles is already comparable with that of internal the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which combustion engines, and that the initial cost will reach price is the United Nations body for assessing the science related parity in the early 2020s. to climate change. In its 2018 Special Report,7 it explains that human activity is likely responsible for about 1˚C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, and global warming is However, this does not tell the full story. A successful energy The ‘when’ transition needs to include solutions for the remaining 47% of energy-related CO2 emissions. For these so-called “hard to The experience of the previous energy transitions shows that abate” sectors, such as heavy trucking, iron and steel, cement, these transformations do not happen overnight, but are a shipping and aviation, scalable solutions are still being developed. process that takes place over decades.16 However, for the To add to the complexity, scalable solutions can mean different current energy transition, the question is how much time there things in different parts of the world, which is the second lens is to complete it. An interesting concept called the “carbon through which to look at energy-related CO2 emissions. budget” clarifies the urgency of the situation. In short, the IPCC estimates that in order to stay within 1.5˚C of global warming the world can “spend” a maximum budget of 2600-2900 GtCO2 FIGURE 4 Total CO2 emissions, 2014 of anthropogenic emissions, of which 2200 GtCO2 has already been used to date. With current emissions of approximately 42 GtCO2 a year, the remaining budget will be depleted in 5% 10-17 years, if no transition is made.17,18 Heavy road, 7% 7% 29% Therefore, to fulfil the commitment to the Paris Agreement Iron & Steel, 6% and keep global warming preferably below 1.5˚C, the IPCC calculates that anthropogenic CO2 emissions need to decline Cement, 6% by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and need to reach net 13% zero around 2050. This is the main reason why countries and Chemical, 3% companies communicate their climate targets by committing Air, 3% themselves to “net zero” by 2050, typically with intermediary Shipping, 3% reduction targets by 2030.19 38% Aluminium, 1% 'Hard to abate sectors', 29% Other industry, 7% The ‘who’ Power generation, 38% Heating buildings, 4% Through lifestyle choices, every individual has a large responsibility in making the energy transition happen, Light road, 13% Water heating and cooking, 3% very similar to the COVID-19 response. However, like with Rail, 1% Other, 5% COVID-19, to be effective, the efforts towards a successful energy transition require a multistakeholder approach involving a broad coalition of public and private actors. Broadly speaking, these fall into four main categories: Regional differences are highlighted by the ETI 2020, which demonstrates that different regions or countries are facing 1.
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