DOCSLIB.ORG

Net Zero and the Role of Gas and Coal in Energy Transitions

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Net Zero and the Role of Gas and Coal in Energy Transitions Net Zero and the Role of Gas and Coal in Energy Transitions Dr Carole Nakhle CEO, Crystol Energy IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks 28 April 2021 Energy Expertise. Global Reach. Evolution of global electricity mix Share of Electricity Production by Evolution of Electricity Mix by Fuel Source, World 45% 40% 2019 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 1985 5% 0% 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Coal Gas Hydro Coal Gas Hydro Renewables Solar Oil Renewables Solar Oil Wind Nuclear Wind Nuclear Source: BP, 2020, Ember, 2021 2 Electricity generation by fuel type in selected countries/regions Electricity Generation by Fuel Type EU China Africa Middle East US 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Renewables Other Source: BP, 2020 Note: EU includes UK 3 CO2emissions bycountry/region Source: BP, Source: Million Tonnes 10000 12000 2000 4000 6000 8000 2020 0 1990 1991 Note: EU includes UK includes EU Note: 1992 1993 1994 1995 US 1996 1997 Middle East 1998 CO2 Emissions Country/Region by 1999 2000 2001 2002 Africa 2003 2004 2005 China 2006 2007 2008 EU 2009 2010 World(rhs) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 4 Million Tonnes Europe: underneath the trend, a multispeed energy region Electricity generation by fuel, 2019 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Germany Italy UK Poland Netherlands Spain EU Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Renewables Other Source: BP, 2020 Note: EU includes UK 5 Climate, economics and politics • EU aims to be climate-neutral by 2050 – an economy with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. • Notable progress to date (23% reduction in CO2 1990-2018). • However, whatever has been accomplished to date has to be done now roughly three times faster. • In power generation, key target to lower GHG emissions should be to minimize the role of coal. • From a climate perspective, ideally best is to replace coal fired with renewable generation but varying (and unpredictable) utilisation rate. • Natural gas can complement wind and solar both during seasonal variations in wind and solar availability and provide back-up during very short-term, literally minute to minute fluctuations in their outputs. 6 Source: Source: Daily gas, wind & solar electricity generation in Germany (2017 Germany generation in electricity solar & wind gas, Daily 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 MWh 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 5,000 Eikon Terminal Eikon - 01/01 03/01 05/01 generation &Solar Wind 07/01 09/01 January 11/01 13/01 15/01 17/01 2020 19/01 21/01 23/01 25/01 2019 27/01 29/01 31/01 MWh 10,000 12,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 - 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 generation Gas 09/01 11/01 January 13/01 – 15/01 2020) 17/01 2020 19/01 21/01 23/01 25/01 2019 27/01 29/01 31/01 7 Gas vs coal • A complete switch from coal (and oil) to gas would achieve a CO2 emissions reduction equivalent to 6-years’ worth of the historic annual reduction rate of CO2 emissions (ca. 43 mn tCO2). • By comparison, to replace coal (and oil) with renewables (instead of gas) means to have to wait more than 11.5 years (assuming the average growth rate of renewable production achieved in the past 10 years). • Europe’s energy transition will largely be a story about gas and modern renewables. • However, despite the climate rationale: • Pressure in some member states to protect coal mining jobs, especially when coal is often produced in remote and otherwise disadvantaged regions, with long (and proud) local tradition. • Low carbon price. • Security of supply concerns. 8 China: Reading between the lines • Climate targets: • Reduce carbon intensity of the Chinese economy (i.e., carbon emissions per unit of GDP) by 65% from 2005 levels, compared to the original commitment of 60-65% made in 2015. • Achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. • While these pledges may seem ambitious, the fact that the carbon emissions reduction target is promised in terms of intensity (per unit of GDP) means that China will retain some flexibility. • Unlike many advanced economies which have committed to a reduction of carbon emissions in absolute terms (e.g., in terms of tonnes of CO2 relative to a particular benchmark year), choosing a relative carbon intensity target could also mean that GDP growth is expected to decelerate; in this case carbon emissions would not be reduced as strongly as the numbers suggest. • Indeed, in the recent 14th Five Year Plan (FYP) (approved 11 March), instead of explicitly setting a numerical GDP growth rate target (as China would routinely do in every FYP), the government suggested a system of indicative economic growth rates for the period 2021-2025. 9 Uncertain gas outlook in favour of coal • The 14th FYP contains two rather specific energy targets: 1. An increase of nuclear electricity generation capacity from the current level of 52 GW to 70 GW by 2025: – All else equal, this increase would boost the share of nuclear in primary energy to 5.7%, from the current level of 4%. 2. Achieve 20% of primary energy consumption from non-fossil fuel by 2025. 1. However, it has not capped the consumption of coal. This opens the option of reducing other fuels to reach the 20% target. • These targets could curtail a strong push toward increased gas consumption. • Carbon price not high enough to incentivise coal to gas switching. • Higher gas prices may lead to a slower shift from the more competitive coal to gas. • Under existing conditions, the maximum technical potential to switch from coal to gas in electricity generation in China is only ca. 9% of current coal generation level. 10 US success Electricity generation mix 6,000 100 5,500 90 5,000 80 70 4,500 60 4,000 50 3,500 40 30 3,000 20 % of total generation 2,500 US CO2 emissions, mn tCO2eq 10 2,000 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Historic CO2 emissions Coal Natural gas Linear trend (2007-30) Petroleum Non-carbon generation Biden's 2030 climate target Source: EIA 11 But a lot more to be done • US President Biden’s recent climate target (50% GHG emissions reduction by 2030 relative to 2005) is very ambitious • Requires enormous investment in all types of clean technologies and low carbon energy sources. • To put this target in the historic context of US CO2 emissions trend: • since 2007 till 2019 emissions have been decreasing at an average pace of 67 mn tCO2eq/year. • This past trend indeed considers the effect of switching from coal to gas in the power sector, given the shale gas revolution. • However, to achieve Biden’s new climate target, the rate of decline in CO2 emission would need to be 184 mn tCOeq/year between now and 2030. This is almost three times the rate of decrease that the US achieved in the recent past. • The role of gas in this journey to meet the newly announced target will clearly be more important than ever. 12 Thank you! [email protected] @carole_nakhle @CrystolEnergy @AccessWIE www.crystolenergy.com Crystol Energy, 4 -12 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4PE, United Kingdom Tel: +44 203 356 2976 Energy Expertise. Global Reach. © CrystolEnergy.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Technology Innovation to Accelerate Energy Transitions
    Technology Innovation to Accelerate Energy Transitions June 2019 Technology Innovation to Accelerate Energy Transitions Abstract Abstract Japan’s G20 presidency 2019 asked the International Energy Agency to analyse progress in G20 countries towards technology innovation to accelerate energy transitions. The Japan presidency, which began on 1 December 2018 and runs through 30 November 2019, has placed a strong focus on innovation, business and finance.1 In the areas of energy and the environment, Japan wishes to create a “virtuous cycle between the environment and growth”, which is the core theme of the G20 Ministerial Meeting on Energy Transitions and Global Environment for Sustainable Growth in Karuizawa, Japan, 15-16 June 2019. A first draft report was presented to the 2nd meeting of the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group (ETWG), held through 18-19 April 2019. This final report incorporates feedback and comments submitted during April by the G20 membership and was shared with the ETWG members. This final report is cited in “Proposed Documents for the Japanese Presidency of the G20” that was distributed to the G20 energy ministers, who convened in Karuizawa on 15-16 June 2019. This report, prepared as an input for the 2019 G20 ministerial meeting, is an IEA contribution; it is not submitted for formal approval by energy ministers, nor does it reflect the G20 membership’s national or collective views. The report sets out around 100 “innovation gaps”, that is, key innovation needs in each energy technology area that require additional efforts, including through global collaboration. Together with other related information, the report can be found at the IEA Innovation web portal at www.iea.org/innovation.
    [Show full text]
  • Energy Security and the Energy Transition: a Classic Framework for a New Challenge
    REPORT 11.25.19 Energy Security and the Energy Transition: A Classic Framework for a New Challenge Mark Finley, Fellow in Energy and Global Oil their political leaders during the oil shocks of SUMMARY the 1970s. While these considerations have Policymakers in the US and around the world historically been motivated by consumers are grappling with how to understand the worried about access to uninterrupted security implications of an energy system supplies of oil, producing countries can in transition—and if they aren’t, they equally raise concerns about shocks to— should be. Recent attacks on Saudi facilities and the security of—demand. show that oil supply remains vulnerable In addition to geopolitical risk, the to disruption. New energy forms can help reliability of energy supplies has recently reduce vulnerability to oil supply outages, been threatened by factors ranging from but they also have the potential to introduce weather events (the frequency and intensity new vulnerabilities and risks. The US and its of which are exacerbated by climate allies have spent the past 50 years building a change) to terrorist activities, industrial robust domestic and international response accidents, and cyberattacks. The recent system to mitigate risks to oil supplies, but attack on Saudi oil facilities and resulting disruption of oil supplies,1 hurricanes on similar arrangements for other energy forms Policymakers are remain limited. This paper offers a framework the Gulf Coast (which disrupted oil and gas for assessing energy security based on an production and distribution, as well as the grappling with the evaluation of vulnerability, risk, and offsets; electrical grid), and high winds in California security implications this approach has been a useful tool for that caused widespread power outages of an energy system in assessing oil security for the past 50 years, have brought energy security once again transition—and if they into the global headlines.
    [Show full text]
  • The Renewable Energy Transition in Africa Powering Access, Resilience and Prosperity
    The Renewable Energy Transition in Africa Powering Access, Resilience and Prosperity On behalf of the Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by the Authors to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither the Authors nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third- party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all countries analysed in the report. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the Authors in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Authors concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. Foreword Energy is the key to development in Africa and the founda- drawn up a roadmap to achieve inclusive and sustainable tion for industrialisation. Like in Europe and other parts of the growth and development. One of the important topics covered world, the expansion of renewables goes beyond the provision is access to affordable, reliable and sustainable energy for all of reliable energy and climate protection. Economic develop- – SDG 7 of the 2030 Agenda.
    [Show full text]
  • Energy Transition: Building the Framework for the Future of Energy Energy Transition | Building the Framework for the Future of Energy
    Energy transition: Building the framework for the future of energy Energy transition | Building the framework for the future of energy Contents Energy transition: Decisions made today by executives, customers, and policy makers are laying the groundwork for the energy future 2 Decarbonization of energy sources 3 Increasing operational energy efficiency 4 Commercialization of new technologies 5 Looking to the future of energy: Macro trends and key drivers 7 Four Future of Energy scenarios 9 Implications for industry sectors 11 The road ahead 12 Let's talk 15 1 Energy transition: Building the framework for the future of energy Energy transition: Decisions made today by executives, customers, and policy makers are laying the groundwork for the energy future In March 2020, Deloitte surveyed 600 executives in the energy 1. Decarbonization of energy sources and industrial sectors about their preparedness for a lower- 2. Increasing operational energy efficiency carbon future and their organizations’ strategies for the energy transition. The survey findings were published inNavigating the 3. Commercialization of new technologies energy transition from disruption to growth and showed three 4. Investment in new business models significant results. First, the transition away from fossil fuels is 5. Adapting to new policy and regulation already well underway and not merely a distant future. Progress in the power sector seems most notable, for example, where in 6. Managing customer and stakeholder expectations the United States, cheap domestic natural gas and renewables are backing out coal generation and have contributed to a As companies find their footing post-crisis, progress in a few substantial emissions reduction.
    [Show full text]
  • Hydropower As Enabler of the Clean Energy Transition: Future Priorities for European Hydropower Research
    EERA JP Hydropower Policy Brief 1/2020 Hydropower as enabler of the clean energy transition: Future priorities for European hydropower research A new role for hydropower in the electrical energy system In EU (2018, EU 28) hydropower The layout of the electrical energy system in continental accounts for around 360 TWh produced Europe was initiated many decades ago. The energy annually1, approximately 43% of the providers were thermal power plants, where operation total renewable electricity production2. was maintained at a constant level. Some run-of-river In Europe, hydropower provides approx. hydropower added slowly fluctuating amounts of non- 180 TWh of storage3 and more than 200 dispatchable power, and pumped storage power plants GW of power4 in synchronous and some storage hydropower plants were used to generators to stabilise the continental balance the consumption and production on short time- European electrical grid. Of this, scales. The future will look very different from this. approximately 155 GW is conventional The European Green Deal’s ambitious target of climate hydropower and approx. 45 GW neutrality by 2050 will inevitably reduce the number of Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH)5. thermal units, replacing the energy they provided with emission free renewables such as intermittent wind and Hydropower and climate adaptation solar PV. This will make the job of balancing the Adding to the importance of redesigning the consumption and production much harder as existing hydropower system based on energy fluctuations are high on both production side and considerations is the projected need for consumption side. New technology and inventions are needed to make this possible, however, the fleet of altered future water management.
    [Show full text]
  • Pathways to Sustainable Energy Accelerating Energy Transition in the UNECE Region
    UNEC E Pathways to Sustainable Energy Accelerating Energy Transition in the UNECE Region Energy underpins economic development and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and has a critical role to play in climate change mitigation. The recognition of the role that energy plays in modern society is highly signicant, however, there remains an important disconnection between agreed energy and climate targets and the Pathways to Sustainable Energy • Accelerating Transition in the UNECE Region approaches in place today to achieve them. Only international cooperation and innovation can deliver the accelerated and more ambitious strategies. Policies will be needed to ll the persistent gaps to achieve the 2030 Agenda. If the gaps are not addressed urgently, progressively more drastic and expensive measures will be required to avoid extreme and potentially unrecoverable social impacts as countries try to cope with climate change. This report uniquely focuses on sustainable energy in the UNECE region up to 2050 as regional economic cooperation is an important factor in achieving sustainable energy. Arriving at a state of attaining sustainable energy is a complex social, political, economic and technological challenge. The UNECE countries have not agreed on how collectively they will achieve energy for sustainable development. Given the role of the UNECE to promote economic cooperation it is important to explore the implications of dierent sustainable energy pathways and for countries to work together on developing and deploying policies and measures. Pathways to Sustainable Energy Accelerating Energy Transition in the UNECE Region 67UNECE Energy Series UNIT Palais des Nations CH - 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland E Telephone: +41(0)22 917 12 34 D E-mail: [email protected] N A Website: www.unece.org TION S UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE Pathways to Sustainable Energy - Accelerating Energy Transition in the UNECE Region ECE ENERGY SERIES No.
    [Show full text]
  • ENABLING Sdgs THROUGH INCLUSIVE, JUST ENERGY TRANSITIONS
    THEME REPORT ON ENABLING SDGs THROUGH INCLUSIVE, JUST ENERGY TRANSITIONS TOWARDS THE ACHIEVEMENT OF SDG 7 AND NET-ZERO EMISSIONS Published by the United Nations Copyright © United Nations, 2021 All rights reserved For further information, please contact: Secretariat of the High-level Dialogue on Energy 2021 Division for Sustainable Development Goals Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations https://www.un.org/en/conferences/energy2021/about Email: [email protected] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared in support of the High-level Dialogue on Energy that will be convened by the UN Secretary-General under the auspices of the UN General Assembly in September 2021, in response to resolution 74/225. The preparation for the Dialogue has been coordinated under the leadership of the Dialogue Secretary-General, LIU Zhenmin, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, and the Co-Chairs of the Dialogue and UN-Energy, Achim Steiner, Administrator of UNDP and Damilola Ogunbiyi, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Sustainable Energy for All. The views expressed in this publication are those of the experts who contributed to it and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations or the organizations mentioned in this document. The report is a product of a multi-stakeholder Technical Working Group (TWG) which was formed in preparation of the High-level Dialogue. UN-Energy provided substantive support to the TWG throughout the development of this report. The outstanding commitment and dedication of the Co-lead organizations under the leadership of LIU Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, Rola Dashti, Executive Secretary of UN ESCWA and Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO, in guiding the process that led to this report was truly remarkable.
    [Show full text]
  • Enabling Frameworks for Sustainable Energy Transition’, Commonwealth Sustainable Energy Transition Series 2021/03, Commonwealth Secretariat, London
    2021/03 COMMONWEALTH SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TRANSITION SERIES SUSTAINABLE Enabling Frameworks ENERGYfor Sustainable Energy TRANSITION Transition SERIESAnthony Polack Commonwealth Sustainable Energy Transition Series 2021/03 ISSN 2413-3175 © Commonwealth Secretariat 2021 By Anthony Polack. Please cite this paper as: Polack, A (2021), ‘Enabling Frameworks for Sustainable Energy Transition’, Commonwealth Sustainable Energy Transition Series 2021/03, Commonwealth Secretariat, London. Anthony Polack has over 15 years’ professional experience in the energy and climate change sectors, having worked for the United Nations (UNDP, UNEP, UNFCCC), Commonwealth Secretariat, Pacific Community (SPC), German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ), and the Australian, British, Fijian, Vanuatu and Palauan governments. He is a Certified Expert in Climate and Renewable Energy Finance. Thanks and appreciation goes to Laurence Delina, Assistant Professor in the Division of Environment and Sustainability at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, for his external peer review. The Commonwealth Sustainable Energy Transition (CSET) Agenda encourages and promotes collaboration amongst Commonwealth member countries in the transition to sustainable energy systems and action towards achievement of the SDGs. It builds on the recognition at CHOGM 2018 of the critical importance of sustainable energy to economic development and the imperative to transition to cleaner forms of energy in view of commitments by member countries under the Paris Agreement. It is anchored on the following three key pillars drawn from the agreed outcomes of the inaugural CSET Forum in June 2019 and leverages existing programmes of the Commonwealth Secretariat: • Inclusive Transitions: advocating equitable and inclusive measures for energy transitions that recognise and address impacts on economies, communities and industries.
    [Show full text]
  • Accelerating South Africa's Energy Transition
    Accelerating South Africa’s energy transition with gas power and renewables www.ge.com/gas-power/future-of-energy In April 2021, the country announced it aims to reduce its annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Executive Although Africa contributes ~5 percent to global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, to 398–440mn tonnes the African Development Bank (AfDB) Summary expects the costs of climate change on per year (tpy) by 2030, the continent could rise to $50bn each 28 percent less than South Africa’s year by 2040, with a further 3 percent leaders must decline each year in GDP by 2050.1 its 2015-set targets South Africa, which generated 86 percent with the launch of an work urgently of its electricity from coal in 2020, sees updated draft of the addressing climate change as an urgent with international priority. Addressing this priority requires Nationally Determined strong commitments and, consistent counterparts policy and regulatory frameworks. Contribution (NDC). to reduce the The country has made progress. The 2019 Integrated Resource Plan, the Green impact of Transport Strategy which enhanced climate change. the recently implemented carbon tax Renewables are the fastest growing source are examples of the government’s of new power generation capacity and commitment to emissions reduction. electricity. Research shows South Africa’s The Nationally Determined Contribution energy mix will evolve to include greater is South Africa’s commitment in terms of amounts of renewables, even as coal the United Nations Framework Convention remains the dominant fuel beyond 2040. on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Paris Agreement (PA) to contribute to 2 Accelerating South Africa’s energy transition with gas power and renewables 2 Figure 1), gas power can serve as an enabler solutions to funding shortfalls, Executive Summary for greater renewables penetration and, (Continued) accelerate the retirement of coal assets, both of projects from beginning to end.5 South Africa’s energy needs are urgent.
    [Show full text]
  • The Speed of the Energy Transition Gradual Or Rapid Change?
    White Paper The Speed of the Energy Transition Gradual or Rapid Change? September 2019 World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 Email: [email protected] www.weforum.org © 2019 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. Contents Foreword 5 1. Executive summary 6 2. Energy transition narratives 8 2.1 Gradual 8 2.2 Rapid 9 3. Differences between the two narratives 10 3.1 What matters 10 3.2 Technology growth 13 3.3 Policy 19 3.4 Emerging market energy pathways 21 4. Implications of the two narratives 23 4.1 The road to Paris 23 4.2 When is peak fossil fuel demand? 24 4.3 How significant is peak demand? 24 5. Conclusion: What to watch out for 25 5.1 Recent developments 25 5.2 Technology 26 5.3 Policy 26 5.4 Milestones for 2030 27 6. Members of the World Economic Forum Global Future Council on Energy 28 Endnotes 29 The Speed of the Energy Transition 3 4 The Speed of the Energy Transition Foreword Christina Will the global energy transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy be gradual or rapid? This Lampe-Onnerud, key issue for the 2020s has profound implications for governments, energy producers, technology Founder and providers as well as industrial and private consumers.
    [Show full text]
  • York and Bell-Energy Transition Or Addition.Pdf
    Energy Research & Social Science 51 (2019) 40–43 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy Research & Social Science journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/erss Perspective Energy transitions or additions? Why a transition from fossil fuels requires more than the growth of T renewable energy ⁎ Richard Yorka, , Shannon Elizabeth Bellb a Department of Sociology and Environmental Studies Program, 1291 University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1291, USA b Department of Sociology, Virginia Tech, 225 Stanger Street, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: Is an energy transition currently in progress, where renewable energy sources are replacing fossil fuels? Previous Energy transition changes in the proportion of energy produced by various sources – such as in the nineteenth century when coal Biofuels surpassed biomass in providing the largest share of the global energy supply and in the twentieth century when Coal petroleum overtook coal – could more accurately be characterized as energy additions rather than transitions. In Renewables both cases, the use of the older energy source continued to grow, despite rapid growth in the new source. Evidence from contemporary trends in energy production likewise suggest that as renewable energy sources compose a larger share of overall energy production, they are not replacing fossil fuels but are rather expanding the overall amount of energy that is produced. We argue that although it is reasonable to expect that renewables will come to provide a growing share of the global energy supply, it is misleading to characterize this growth in renewable energy as a “transition” and that doing so could inhibit the implementation of meaningful policies aimed at reducing fossil fuel use.
    [Show full text]
  • A Road Map to Navigate the Energy Transition
    October 2019 A road map to navigate the energy transition Abstract Energy transitions are complex processes that are difficult to characterize using a small number of features. Despite this, this study tries to provide a framework for the energy transition, pointing out that some long-run scenarios have a higher probability than others. The document is organized around four key propositions: 1) The energy transition is driven by policies rather than by technology improvements. 2) The energy transition disrupts liberalized electricity markets and undermines their economic foundation. 3) Given the current technologies and technological perspectives, the energy transition to renewable sources is going to be incomplete. 4) There is a change in consumer preferences for cleaner energy and this change demands new business models. These four propositions lead to the following consequences: a) The outcome in terms of electricity prices and energy production will depend on the policies applied. There are multiple possible polices and potentially multiple paths of energy transition. b) A complete transition based on renewable energy may be technically possible, but politically difficult to manage in liberalized markets. These markets need a totally new design. c) There is a change in consumers preferences towards decarbonized energy, creating new business opportunities and jeopardizing traditional business models. Energy transitions are complex processes and it is not possible to make accurate predictions on this phenomenon, but, in our opinion, this study adds value to the current debate since it provides general guidelines for policymakers, energy companies and investors. Energy Insight: 59 Jorge Blazquez, Rolando Fuentes-Bracamontes, Baltasar Manzano* , Introduction Energy transitions are a multidimensional, complex, non-linear, non-deterministic, and uncertain phenomenon and, therefore, they are difficult to characterize using a small number of features.
    [Show full text]