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World Bank Document Public Disclosure Authorized DECPG Daily Economics and Financial Market Commentary February 5, 2008 Mick Riordan (x31289), Cristina Savescu (x80812), Eung Ju Kim (x85804), Shane Streifel (x33867), Annette De Kleine (x34710) You’ll find recent issues of this Daily and lots of other current analysis and high-frequency data at our intranet website: http://gem or for external users http://www.worldbank.org/gem. International financial markets Global markets: stocks and oil drop, government bonds up. Global markets were Public Disclosure Authorized mixed on Wednesday, as persistent worries about the global economic slump weighed on investor sentiment. Equity- and oil prices dropped while government bonds moved higher amid accelerating U.S. job losses. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut its key interest rate by a percentage point to a record low 1%, while the European Central Bank decided to leave the key rate unchanged at 2% (at its record low) but signaled it could follow suit and trim borrowing cost again next month’s meeting. Global equities ticked lower on Thursday as investors considered lingering worries about corporate earnings and the as-expected rate cut from the Bank of England. Financial sector woes in Europe also weighed on investor sentiment. Asian markets ended mostly lower and European shares tumbled in afternoon sessions. Meanwhile, crude oil prices edged lower to near $40/bbl amid falling U.S. equities and a larger-than- expected U.S. crude inventory build-up. Asian stocks declined for the first time in three Public Disclosure Authorized days after a volatile session Thursday, led by health care and technology companies, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index losing 0.6%. The tone of the market was influenced by an overnight sell-off on Wall Street and a batch of disappointing corporate earnings across the region. Most markets in the region retreated, with Japan’s Nikkei-225 sliding 1.1%, Korea 1.5%, China 0.7% and India 1.2%. In contrast, benchmarks in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Pakistan advanced. European shares also dropped, paring some of the past two day’s strong gains, as a set of battered earnings results from the region’s leading companies and a jump in U.S. jobless claims signaled a deepening global recession. The benchmark Dow Jones Stoxx-600 Index fell 2.4%, with bank and insurance stocks leading the decline. The financial sector got pounded with shares of Deutsche Bank dropping 6.4% and Swiss Re, the world largest re-insurer, slipping 23%. National benchmark indexes declined in 17 of 18 Western European markets, with London’s FTSE-00 index sliding 2.1%, Public Disclosure Authorized France’s CAC-40 dropping 2.6% and Germany’s DAX losing 1.9% in early afternoon sessions. Meanwhile, most U.S. equities opened lower today following another round of grim retail sales figures and a sharp increase in initial jobless claims (a 26-year high). The S&P-500 lost 1.5%, the Dow slid 1.2% and NASDAC Composite fell 1.3% in morning sessions. In contrast, government bond prices rose again Thursday, rebounding from yesterday’s loss, as gloomy economic data offset supply concerns that a record $67 billion of government debt on sale next week will overwhelm demand. Yields on the benchmark 10-year T-note dropped 7bp to 2.86%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond declined 7bp to 3.60%. Treasuries’ gains were also boosted by an unexpectedly large decline in U.S. factory orders in December as well as a renewed decline in U.S .equities. Bank of England cuts base rates 50 basis points to 1%. The Bank of England (BOE) today lowered its base lending rate by 50 basis points to 1%, the lowest level since the founding of the institution in 1694, amid signs of rapid deterioration in U.K economic activity and potential adverse fiscal implications of Government banking-sector support. Indeed, IMF forecasts suggest that the U.K. economy will contract by some 2.8% in 2009, the worst growth outturn since 1945. The Government has given the BOE powers to spend up to £50 billion ($73 billion) on bonds and commercial paper as a means to foster credit growth, as interest rats lose their potency to support lending and activity. In related developments.....At today’s post-meeting Press conference of the European Central bank (ECB), Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the institution said that policy- makers may cut their benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.5% next month, as recession in the Euro Area deepens. “I don’t exclude that we could reduce interest rates at our next decision,” noted Trichet, after leaving rates at the current 2% level following today’s deliberations. Analysts suggest that M. Trichet’s hesitance to take a more aggressive stance on monetary policy is tied to fears of falling into a “liquidity trap”, a point where policy interest rates carry little to no effect on the demand for funds. And that moving to a “zero” rate, as the Federal Reserve has done: ”...doesn’t seem appropriate at this stage.” U.S. and German factory orders plummet in December. Adding further evidence to the depths of recession on both sides of the Atlantic, both the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Bundesbank announced orders received by manufacturers in December for their respective countries. For the United States, factory orders dropped for a fifth month, falling 3.9% (m/m) in the wake of a severe 6.5% contraction in November. For the fourth quarter, total orders fell at an unprecedented 46% annualized pace (saar), contrasted with a 5.8% falloff in the previous quarter, setting an unfavorable stage for developments in early 2009 [see Daily Chart at http://gem or http://www.worldbank.org/gem]. In Germany, the key development during the second half of 2008 was a dramatic falloff in export performance, as growth in key export markets—including economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, the Middle East and of course, the United States and Britain began to suffer adverse affects from the burgeoning financial crisis. Export orders dropped a full 53% during the fourth quarter (saar) carrying total orders to a loss of 50% contrasted with a 15% decline in the previous quarter. According to Sal Guateri of BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, “The chilly economic climate and dicey credit conditions have sunk demand for business equipment.... pointing to more cutbacks in production and factory jobs in the months ahead.” U.S. first-time claims for unemployment insurance surge in latest week. Layoffs and downsizing continue, now at an accelerating pace, as during the week of January 30, some 626,000 persons applied for the first time for state unemployment insurance benefits, this up from 591,000 in the week preceding, and 366,000 one year ago. Over 2009 to date, initial claims have amounted to a record 2.9 million, underscoring the sharp deterioration in labor markets attendant upon the deepening U.S. recession. The total number of persons collecting unemployment insurance increased to a record 4.8 million in the week, today’s report showed. “It’s astonishing how quickly American businesses are laying people off,” noted Roger Kubarych of Uni-Credit Global Research in New York, and formerly of the N.Y Federal Reserve. “They’ve learned that they probably carried too much staff for the kind of economy they foresee, and they’re laying people off, left and right.” Among emerging markets...in East Asia, Indonesia’s president ordered the central bank to intervene in the exchange market to protect the rupiah and prevent it from falling further, targeting a level close to 11,000 rupiah per USD, 5.8% stronger then its is currently. Indonesia’s international reserves had plunged $10 billion since July 2008 to $50.9 billion as the central bank tried to defend the currency, which depreciated 16% last year the most in eight years. The Ministry of Finance projects economic growth at 4.7% this year, down from 6.2% in 2008, and sees inflation slowing to 6.2%. Indonesia’s exports, which account for 29% of GDP, are projected to come almost to a standstill this year, inching up a mere 1%. In South Asia, India’s wholesale price inflation eased to 5.07% in the week to January 24 from 5.64% the previous week, creating a small bit of room for monetary easing to bolster growth. However, India’s budget deficit may increase threefold this year, as the government implements fiscal stimulus to arrest the economic slowdown triggered by the global recession, according to Suresh Tendulkar the top economic adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The deficit could rise to 7.5% of GDP in the year ending March 31, significantly above the 2.5% target. The government wrote-off 717 billion rupees ($14.7 billion) in farm loans, raised salaries for 5 million government employees by 21% in the last nine months, and since December, cut taxes and announced an extra 200 billion rupees of spending to boost economic growth. The combined budget deficit of the federal and state governments will be 10% of GDP in the year to March 31. In Central and Eastern Europe, the Czech Republic’s central bank lowered its two-week repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 1.75%, matching the record low attained in September 2005, on fears that the economy is already in recession and that it may experience deflation this year, as it is battered by the global economic crisis. The Czech koruna has lost 7.1% since the central bank last cut interest rates on December 17, compared to an 11.2% depreciation of the Hungarian forint and 13.3% depreciation of the Polish zloty.
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