The Economist June 18Th 2016 5

After Orlando LinkedIn snapped up South Africa needs an opposition Chinese mayors, stars of reality TV

JUNE 18TH–24TH 2016 Of mice and microbes Divided we fall

THE FUTURE OF BRITAIN AND EUROPE

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8 The world this week Asia 37 Arrests in Bangladesh Leaders Jihadists (and others) in jail 13 Britain’s EU referendum 38 Indian elections Divided we fall The wrong ink 14 The Orlando attack 40 Papua New Guinea Aftermath of a tragedy Shooting students 16 India’s central bank 40 A scandal in Tokyo A second helping of Raghu Another one bites the dust 16 South Africa 41 Australia’s election After Orlando The right Cracking the monolith Time of Nick lessons to learn from a deadly 17 Female genital cutting 42 Banyan EU and whose army? massacre: leader, page14. An agonising choice Reactions show the stark On the cover choice facing voters in A vote to leave the European Letters China November, page 27. Union would diminish both Radicalisation is too complex 18 On Brexit, populism, 43 Traffic jams in Beijing Britain and Europe: leader, for simplistic Trumpian Donald Trump, language The great crawl page13. If Brexit, what solutions: Lexington, page 32. 44 Reality television next? Page 22. It has been a Evidence is growing that gun Making officials squirm bad-tempered and Briefing violence in America is a unenlightening campaign, 22 Brexit product of lax gun laws: Free page 24. The coarsening of What if? Essay exchange, page 78 British politics: Bagehot, 23 In their words (I) 45 Europe page 62. Brexit and the Between the borders European dream: Heard from overseas Charlemagne, page 59 24 The referendum campaign The Battle of Evermore Middle East and Africa 25 In their words (II) 51 South Africa The Economist online Heard on the trail In need of an opposition Daily analysis and opinion to 52 A virtual turf war supplement the print edition, plus United States The scramble for .africa audio and video, and a daily chart 53 Nigeria floats its currency Economist.com 27 The Orlando attack Vigils and vigilantes Free at last newsletters and E-mail: 28 Watergate II 53 The Muslim Brotherhood mobile edition Sibling rivalry South Africa Voters should Economist.com/email The Donald’s dirty linen 29 Computing boot-camps 54 Arabic publishing stop giving the African Print edition: available online by Risks and rewards Plus de kutub, please National Congress a blank 7pm London time each Thursday cheque: leader, page16. The Economist.com/print 29 The manosphere ANC is failing its people. Is Audio edition: available online Balls to all that Europe there an alternative? Page 51 to download each Friday 30 College towns 55 Drugs Economist.com/audioedition A roaring trade Not mind-stretching 31 Scandinavian-Americans 56 Nadia Savchenko Founding Vikings The maid of Kiev 32 Lexington 57 Orthodox Christians How others cope with Autumn of the patriarchs radicalisation 57 Fighting smuggling Volume 419Number 8994 Mastermind or mistake? Published since September1843 The Americas 58 The Balkans’ EU dreams to take part in "a severe contest between Applications deferred intelligence, which presses forward, and 34 Criminal justice in Mexico an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing Trials and errors 59 Charlemagne our progress." 35 Bello European Utopianism Editorial offices in London and also: Reality TV in China Atlanta, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Chicago, The Venezuela test Lima, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, Nairobi, Officials meet “The Apprentice”, New Delhi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, 36 Gay rights in the page 44 São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Tokyo, Caribbean Washington DC Not everyone’s paradise 36 Poverty in Latin America Don’t look down

1 Contents continues overleaf 6 Contents The Economist June 18th 2016

Britain 76 International data flows Priceless 60 Retailers in trouble High noon on the high 77 Emerging-market indices street Stocks and stones 61 Trump in Scotland 78 Free exchange Waiting for Donald The roots of gun violence 61 The demise of BHS Green sees red Science and technology 62 Bagehot 79 Video games The Nigel Farage Show Engines of creation Microsoft buys LinkedIn 80 Microbes and autism Of mice and microbes A boost It is one of the most expensive for the theory that bacteria International Gut feelings tech deals in history but it may are involved in some cases of 63 Female genital cutting 81 Scientific sloppiness not be one of the smartest, Come again? autism, page 80 page 65 The unkindest cut 64 Male circumcision 81 Presenting results Snip snap Graphic details Subscription service 82 Cleaning the environment For our latest subscription offers, visit It’s the pits Economist.com/offers Business For subscription service, please contact by telephone, fax, web or mail at the details 65 Technology deals provided below: Books and arts LinkedUp North America The Economist Subscription Center 66 The internet 83 The Venetian ghetto Hidden secrets P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis, MO 63146-6978 Reweaving the web Telephone: +1 800 456 6086 84 The Arab unravelling Facsimile: +1 866 856 8075 67 Shanghai Disneyland E-mail: [email protected] Tales of spring and winter Lord of the jungle Latin America & Mexico The Economist Subscription Center 68 The Panama Canal 84 The boundaries of science Circle in a circle P.O. Box 46979, St. Louis, MO 63146-6979 Wider impact Telephone: +1 636 449 5702 Oil at $50 Is that enough to 87 Cambodia Facsimile: +1 636 449 5703 69 Nuclear power E-mail: [email protected] revive global production? Buried treasure Page 73 Keeping on the lights Subscription for 1 year (51 issues) 87 American fiction 69 Broadway economics United States US $158.25 (plus tax) Hamilton’s success Axemen Canada CA $158.25 (plus tax) Latin America US $289 (plus tax) 71 Schumpeter 88 Johnson The imperial CFO Double-plus effective Principal commercial offices: 25 St James’s Street, London sw1a 1hg Finance and economics 92 Economic and financial indicators Tel: +44 20 7830 7000 73 Oil supply Statistics on 42 economies, Rue de l’Athénée 32 Rigonomics 1206 Geneva, Switzerland plus a closer look at world Tel: +4122 566 2470 74 Buttonwood GDP 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY10017 Sinking bond yields Tel: +1212 5410500 75 India’s central bank Obituary 1301Cityplaza Four, A governor with a view 12 Taikoo Wan Road, Taikoo Shing, Hong Kong Female genital mutilation 94 Manohar Aich Tel: +852 2585 3888 After 30 years of attempts to 76 Wells Fargo Raising the temple eradicate a barbaric practice, Diving into the mire Other commercial offices: Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, it continues. Time to try a new Paris, San Francisco and Singapore approach: leader, page 17. A rite of passage ranges from symbolic to awful. Where should the line be drawn? Pages 63. Why more than half of newborn boys in America are circumcised, page 64

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© 2016 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist (ISSN 0013-0613) is published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited, 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor New York, NY 10017. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY and additional mailing oﬃces. Postmaster: Send address changes to The Economist, P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis, MO 63146-6978, USA. Canada Post publications mail (Canadian distribution) sales agreement no. 40012331. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to The Economist, PO Box 7258 STN A, Toronto, ON M5W 1X9. GST R123236267. Printed by Quad/Graphics, Hartford, WI. 53027 Benefit from a secured bond 8 The world this week The Economist June 18th 2016

control laws and concomitant $7m in cash in a monastery hate speech. This was inter- Politics resistance from gun-rights while carrying a rifle. He preted as a sign, following groups. The share prices of served as public-works min- weeks ofsometimes violent gunmakers soared. ister during the presidency of protests, ofgrowing tension as Cristina Fernández, who left elections loom next year. Donald Trump used the atroc- office in December. ity to air his idea ofa tempo- It was reported that Ethiopia rary ban on Muslims entering A Mexican soldier was and Eritrea have clashed on America, and suggested he murdered while guarding the their border. Having fought a would expand this to citizens perimeter ofa prison where war in 1998-2000, the UN ofany country with a record of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, urged “maximum restraint”. committing terrorism against Mexico’s most powerful drug- America. But in a move that trafficker, is being held. The seems to modify his strong soldier’s body showed signs of support for gun rights, he said torture. Mr Guzmán’s lawyers he would askthe National are resisting the government’s A gunman, apparently Rifle Association to backa ban efforts to extradite him to the inspired by Islamic State, on people who are on terrorist United States. attacked a gay nightclub in watch-lists from buying guns. Orlando, Florida, killing 49 The money-go-round people. The suspect, Omar The Democratic primary in Nigeria announced that it will Mateen, died in a shoot-out Washington, DC, brought allow the naira to float from with police, who stormed the America’s presidential prim- June 20th. For the past15 building. He was born in New ary season to a close. Hillary months it has been struggling Yorkto Afghan parents and Clinton tookalmost 80% ofthe to hold the currency at an In Bahrain a court banned the had attracted the attention of vote in the city. Afterwards, artificially high level. Business- country’s main Shia opposi- the FBI fora possible connec- she met Bernie Sanders in es, which have been unable to tion group. This came a day tion to a suicide-bomber in private to discuss policy ideas get the foreign exchange they after police arrested Nabeel Syria, though no evidence of a they have in common. need, celebrated. Rajab, one ofthe most linkto terrorism was found at prominent anti-government the time. The mass shooting, Nice work if you can get it A Kenyan court ordered police activists in the Arab world, the deadliest in modern Amer- A formergovernment official to arrest eight politicians, both nearly a year after he had been ican history, prompted the in Argentina, José López, was pro- and anti-government, and freed from his previous spell usual calls forstricter gun- caught by police trying to hide investigate them over alleged behind bars. 1 The Economist June 18th 2016 The world this week 9

2 Rounding up the rowdies and leaking state secrets. The Hansjörg Haber, the EU’s Around 11,000 people were son, Zhou Bin, was imprisoned envoy to Turkey, resigned arrested in Bangladesh in a for18 years fortaking 222m amid growing tension over a crackdown against Islamic yuan ($33.7m) in bribes. The recent deal on migration. The militants. More than 40 athe- wife, Jia Xiaoye, was given a European Commission ists, secular activists and mem- nine-year sentence, also for announced that the country bers ofreligious minorities taking bribes. would not be granted visa-free have been murdered in the travel in June, as previously past three years. Sheikh The Chinese Communist thought, because it still did not Hasina, the prime minister, Party’s discipline-enforce- meet all ofthe deal’s vowed that “each and every ment agency published a rare conditions. killer will be brought to book.” public criticism ofanother powerful party organ, the Russia—mired in recession, The governor ofTo k yo Publicity Department, which Britain’s forthcoming referen- criticised over its invasion of resigned after an apology controls the media. It said dum on whether to leave the Ukraine and at the centre of a failed to quell publicanger some ofthe department’s European Union was too close doping scandal—could at least over revelations that he spent leaders lacked sufficient “polit- to call. A worried Remain point to football hooliganism public funds on comic books, a ical awareness”, and it called camp pressed Labour’s big as something it exports well. hotel suite and silkshirts. on them to step up their efforts guns to push hard to convince Around 300 Russians turned to promote the party’s ideolo- its supporters ofthe merits of the streets ofMarseille into a Indonesia’s doctors’ associa- gy. President Xi Jinping recent- staying in the union. Despite a battlefield when they fought tion chose not to co-operate ly reminded the media that late rush to register to vote, English supporters at the Euro- with a presidential decree they had to obey the party. mostly by younger people, pean championships. The ordering chemical castration who tend to be EU-friendly, Russians were a different class forchild molesters, saying it Unpredictable killers several polls showed a swing ofhooligan from the tradition- violates doctors’ ethical code In a Paris suburb a policeman towards Leave. Ipsos MORI al English sort, abstaining from and will prove ineffective. and his partner, a police offi- reported a big jump in concern alcohol before a fight and cial, were killed in their home among the public about im- well-versed in martial arts. A court in China jailed the son by an Islamist who had been migration, the ace card forthe Disturbingly, one Russian MP, and wife ofthe country’s monitored by the French in- Leave campaign. Expect a tired who is also an official in the retired security chief, Zhou telligence service, raising and exasperated David country’s football association, Yongkang, who was sentenced concerns about how the coun- Cameron on June 24th, the day praised the actions ofhis to life in prison last year for try is managing to deal with after the referendum, which- compatriots, tweeting: “Well corruption, abuse ofpower “lone wolf” terrorists. ever way Britain votes. done lads, keep it up!” 10 The world this week The Economist June 18th 2016

government’s decision to neutrality”, the concept that driver who had been declared Business postpone a rise in the sales tax. telecom firms should not bankrupt. Sir Philip said little Fitch said the delay prompted create fast or slow lanes for about how he would fulfil his Microsoft said it would buy it to question Japan’s “commit- internet traffic that enable promise to plug the company’s LinkedIn for$26.2 billion, ment to fiscal consolidation”. them to charge a premium. pension hole of£571m ($810m). which equals the combined AT&T was not happy with the amount Microsoft has paid for Brexit jitters decision; it is taking the case to Guy Hands dropped his law- its next four largest acquisi- the Supreme Court. suit against Citigroup, just tions. The leading site for FTSE 100 volatility index three days after resuming his Percentage points professional social-network- POLL PUTS The Iranian government is long-running legal feud with ing, LinkedIn has struggled to REFERENDUM “LEAVE” AHEAD ready to buy new passenger the bankover the advice it gave get its customers to use the site ANNOUNCED 40 jets for Iranair from Boeing, his private-equity firm in the repeatedly. Microsoft, which is 30 according to Iran’s state media, disastrous buy-out ofEMI. grappling to reinvent itself for 20 a significant step since the After a grilling in the witness the online age, might add 10 lifting ofmost sanctions six box, Mr Hands said “memo-

LinkedIn to its Office software, 0 months ago. Boeing would ries ofthese events after nine so that, say, a profile pops up of Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun need final approval from the years are no longer sufficient to someone completing a task 2016 American government and meet the high demands of Source: Thomson Reuters similar to the one being Congress would almost cer- proof” fora fraud claim. His worked on. Whether that will The prospect ofBritain leaving tainly oppose the sale. firm will pay Citi’s legal costs. entice more people to use its the European Union weighed products is an open question. heavily on markets as opinion The leading ride-hailing firms One for customer relations polls suggested the result of hauled in yet more capital. Goldman Sachs was taken to Symantec, best known forits the referendum on June 23rd Didi, China’s biggest taxi app, court by Libya’s sovereign- computer antivirus software, will be much closer than had said it raised $7.3 billion in its wealth fund forallegedly agreed to pay $4.7 billion for been thought. Investors’ desire latest round offunding (in- taking advantage ofits unfa- Blue Coat, a cyber-security forsafety drove the yield on cluding $1billion from Apple). miliarity with markets in 2008 firm that specialises in block- German ten-year government It is now estimated to be worth to push it into buying risky, ing malicious attacks. bonds below zero forthe first $25 billion. And forthe first financial products. The trial time. The pound continued its time, Uber was said to be began by presenting e-mails Swallowing the whole Pi steep descent, falling at one seeking a leveraged loan of up between Goldman bankers The main distributor ofcom- point below $1.41. to $2 billion. that disparaged their clients, ponents forthe Raspberry Pi referring to them as desert- computer, Premier Farnell of An appeals court supported The kerfuffle over the collapse dwellers with camels. Gold- Britain, was bought by the Obama administration’s ofBHS showed little sign of man’s lawyer said the bank Dätwyler, a Swiss rival, for position that broadband pro- abating. Sir Philip Green, the had been diligent and that the £615m ($870m). The Raspberry viders should be classified as retail chain’s formerowner, Libyans were feeling “buyer’s Pi is sold cheaply as a batch of utilities and thus cannot offer appeared before a committee remorse”. components that children (and fasterspeeds for certain con- in Parliament to explain why adults) use to build the com- tent services over others. The he had sold the business for £1 Other economic data and news puter and learn coding. ruling is a victory for “net last year to a formerracing can be found on pages 92-93

Gawker sought bankruptcy protection in light ofthe $140m in damages it has been ordered to pay to HulkHogan, a wres- tler, for publishing a sex video in which he features.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold. Until recently it had been expected to raise rates this month, but it was unsettled by weakjobs data, among other things. However, the Fed did indicate that it plans two rate increases this year, so the guessing game about when that will happen starts all over again.

Markets responded negatively to the BankofJapan’s decision to hold oﬀon any further easing to monetary policy. Before the decision Fitch lowered its outlookon Japan’s sovereign debt following the You’ve earned your money, but are you owning it?

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Leaders The Economist June 18th 2016 13 Divided we fall

A vote to leave the European Union would diminish both Britain and Europe HE peevishness of the cam- when a loss-making steelworks at Port Talbot in Wales was in Tpaigning has obscured the danger of closing, Brexiteers clamoured for state aid and tariff importance ofwhat is at stake. A protection that even the supposedly protectionist EU would vote to quit the European Union never allow. on June 23rd, which polls say is a The panderinghasbeen still more shamelessoverimmigra- growing possibility, would do tion. Leave has warned that millions of Turks are about to in- grave and lasting harm to the vade Britain, which is blatantly false. It has blamed strains on politics and economy of Britain. public services like health care and education on immigration, The loss of one of the EU’s biggest members would gouge a when immigrants, who are net contributors to the exchequer, deep wound in the rest of Europe. And, with the likes of Do- help Britain foot the bill. It suggests that Britain cannot keep nald Trumpand Marine Le Pen fuelling economic nationalism out murderers, rapists and terrorists when, in fact, it can. and xenophobia, it would mark a defeat for the liberal order Britons like to thinkofthemselves as bracingly free-market. that has underpinned the West’s prosperity. They are quick to blame their woes on red tape from Brussels. That, clearly, is not the argument of the voices calling to In reality,though, they are as addicted to regulation as anyone leave. As with Eurosceptics across the EU, their story is about else. Many of the biggest obstacles to growth—too few new liberation and history.Quittingthe sclerotic, undemocratic EU, houses, poorinfrastructure and a skills gap—stem from British- the Brexiteerssay,would setBritainfreeto reclaimitssovereign made regulations. In six years of government, the Tories have destiny as an outward-looking power. Many of these people failed to dismantle them. Leaving the EU would not make it claim the mantle of liberalism—the creed that this newspaper any easier. has long championed. They sign up to the argument that free trade leads to prosperity. They make the right noises about How to make friends and irritate people small government and red tape. They say that theirrejection of All this should lead to victory for Remain. Indeed, economists, unlimited EU migration stems not from xenophobia so much businesspeople and statesmen from around the world have as a desire to pickpeople with the most to offer. queued up to warn Britain that leaving would be a mistake (though Mr Trump is a fan). Yet in the post-truth politics that is Singapore on steroids rocking Westerndemocracies, illusions are more alluring than The liberal Leavers are peddling an illusion. On contact with authority. the reality of Brexit, their plans will fall apart. If Britain leaves Thus the Leave campaign scorns the almost universally the EU, it is likely to end up poorer, less open and less innova- gloomy economic forecasts of Britain’s prospects outside the tive. Far from reclaiming its global outlook, it will become less EU as the work of “experts” (as if knowledge was a hindrance influential and more parochial. And without Britain, all of Eu- to understanding). And it dismisses the Remain camp for rep- rope would be worse off. resenting the elite (as if Boris Johnson, its figurehead and an Startwith the economy.Even those votingLeave accept that Oxford-educated old Etonian, personified the common man). there will be short-term damage (see pages 22- 24). More im- The most corrosive of these illusions is that the EU is run by portant, Britain is unlikely to thrive in the longer run either. Al- unaccountable bureaucrats who trample on Britain’s sover- most half of its exports go to Europe. Access to the single mar- eignty as they plot a superstate. As ouressay explains, the EU is ket is vital for the City and to attract foreign direct investment. too often seen through the prism of a short period of intense Yet to maintain that access, Britain will have to observe EU reg- integration in the 1980s—which laid down plans for, among ulations, contribute to the budget and accept the free move- other things, the single market and the euro. In reality, Brussels ment of people—the very things that Leave says it must avoid. is dominated by governments who guard their power jealous- Topretend otherwise is to mislead. ly. Making them more accountable is an argument about de- Those who advocate leaving make much of the chance to mocracy,not sovereignty. The answer is not to storm out but to trade more easily with the rest ofthe world. That, too, is uncer- stay and workto create the Europe that Britain wants. tain. Europe has dozens of trade pacts that Britain would need Some Britons despair of their country’s ability to affect to replace. It would be a smaller, weaker negotiating partner. whathappensin Brussels. YetBritain hasplayed a decisive role The timetable would not be under its in Europe—ask the French, who spent control, and the slow, grinding history the 1960s keeping it out of the club. OUR COVERAGE OF THE REFERENDUM of trade liberalisation shows that mer- Competition policy, the single market cantilists tend to have the upper hand. The result of Britain’s vote on June 23rd will and enlargement to the east were all Nor is unshackling Britain from the come too late for next week’s issue. In Britain championed by Britain, and are pro- EU likely to release a spate of liberal re- we will delay printing in order to produce a foundly in its interests. So long as Brit- forms at home. As the campaign has special edition. Our weekly app will be updated ain does not run away and hide, it has run its course, the Brexit side has stoked on Friday morning with analysis of the result. every reason to think that it will contin- voters’ prejudicesand pandered to a Lit- For continuous coverage of the referendum ue to have a powerful influence, even and its result, visit our special website at tle England mentality (see Bagehot). over the vexed subject ofimmigration. economist.com/Brexit Despite Leave’s free-market rhetoric, True, David Cameron, the prime 1 14 Leaders The Economist June 18th 2016

2 minister, failed to win deep reform of Britain’s relations with powerful, Britain should work with France to counterbalance the EU before the referendum. But he put himselfin a weak po- it. If France wants the EU to be less liberal, Britain should work sition by asking forhelp at the last minute, when governments with the Dutch and the Nordics to stop it. If the EU is prosper- were at loggerheads over the single currency and refugees. ing, Britain needs to share in the good times. Ifthe EU is failing, Some Britons see this as a reason to get out, before the it has an interest in seeing the pieces land in the right place. doomed edifice comes tumbling down. Yet the idea that quit- Over the years this newspaper has found much to criticise ting would spare Britain is the greatest illusion of all. Even if in the EU. It is an imperfect, at times maddening club. But it is Britain can leave the EU it cannot leave Europe. The lesson go- far better than the alternative. We believe that leaving would ing back centuries is that, because Britain is affected by what be a terrible error. It would weaken Europe and it would im- happens in Europe, it needs influence there. If Germany is too poverish and diminish Britain. Our vote goes to Remain. 7

The Orlando attack Aftermath of a tragedy

The right lessons to learn from a deadlymassacre HEN Omar Mateen killed men and women at the Pulse nightclub not only to go home W49 people in a gay night- with whomever they pleased, but to marry them as well. club in Orlando on June 12th, did American Muslims are slightly more likely to support gay he commit the bloodiest mass marriage than evangelical Christians are. But rapid social shooting in modern American change always leaves some people behind. When America history, the worst ever attack on abandoned racial segregation, a small, fanatical group of gay Americans or the deadliest white supremacists remained. Somethingsimilarmayhappen act of Islamist terrorism since with gayAmericans, who find theirsexualityismetwith indif- 9/11? America’s polarised political culture demands that peo- ference from parents, friends and colleagues, but with occa- ple choose between these interpretations. Forthose on the left, sional, shocking acts ofviolence from bigoted strangers. Mr Mateen’s killing spree focuses attention on the problem of easy access to guns and on homophobia. For those on the right The silver bullet they won’t fire it shows that America has a problem with homegrown jihadis. Lastly, the shooting shows that America has a unique vulner- For anyone not beholden to either camp the answer seems ob- ability to lone-wolf attacks because of its gun laws. In France vious: the attackwas all three ofthese things. two people were killed the day after the Florida attacks by a It was also an early test of how a President Trump might man who claimed inspiration from IS. He wielded a knife. handle a crisis if elected in November. One of the finest mo- Armed with an assault-rifle and a semi-automatic pistol he ments of George W. Bush’s presidency was when he went to could have killed many more. In America Mr Mateen was able an Islamic centre six days after 9/11 and issued a call for toler- to walkinto a local gun store and buy everything he needed to ance and unity. Mr Trump’s first thought was to exploit the kill or wound 102 people, without breaking any law. shooting to score a point: “Appreciate the congrats for being Mass shootings do sometimes happen in countries with right on radical Islamic terrorism,” he tweeted. It got worse. strict gun laws. But they are far more frequent in America, The Republican nominee first implied that the president might which has seen 37 incidents in which at least fourpeople were secretly be in league with Islamic State (IS). Then he gave a killed in the past decade alone. These numbers do not take ac- speech which suggested that American Muslims are a fifth col- count of the more humdrum shootings that make the news umn who “know what’s going on” but choose not to tell the only if someone famous is involved (the night before the police about impending attacks. shooting at Pulse a singer was shot dead in Florida by a fan) or Aside from its jarring dissonance with the idea that the Un- ifthe victim is a child or a policeman. ited States is a melting pot where everyone is American first, Is it too much to hope that anything will change after this the speech was corrosive, because it sought to turn Americans week’s carnage? Public support fortighter gun laws is high, but against each other, and foolish, because America needs co-op- gun-owners are determined not to relinquish their weapons eration from Muslims at home and abroad to prevent attacks. or to be prevented from buying more (see Free exchange). Poll- It was also plain wrong. America’s Muslims are prosperous, ing suggests that most people with guns think that firearms well-educated and, with the exception of recent arrivals from make them and theirfamiliessafer. Theyare impervious to sta- Somalia, well-integrated. There is already a lot ofco-operation tistics on accidental deaths of children. Even if gun purchases between mosques and the FBI. Home-grown acts of terrorism were banned tomorrow, about 300m firearms would remain. are, fortunately, rare, and they are not confined to those who After previous mass shootings, such as the one in New- claim to be acting in the name ofIslam. town, Connecticut, when 20 children died, Republican-con- Seen another way, the attack was a crime motivated by a trolled state legislatures passed looser gun laws. Florida’s state mixture of hatred against gay people with—judging by reports legislature has debated doing away with the state’s ban on that Mr Mateen himself visited the club—an element of self- guns in schools and colleges, on the ground that it is always loathing. The speed at which most Americans have become safer to arm more people. The Orlando shooting ought to tolerant ofgay people is astonishing. In 2003 Florida still had a erode support for permissive gun laws. Sadly, experience sug- law against sodomy. Thirteen years later it was legal for the gests it is likely to have the opposite effect. 7

16 Leaders The Economist June 18th 2016

India’s central bank A second helping of Raghu

The governorofthe Reserve BankofIndia should be asked to serve a second term HEN Raghuram Rajan to under 6%. That is in part because of help from tumbling Wwas put in charge of the commodityprices, butMrRajan hasalso graduallyinstilled ex- Reserve Bank of India (RBI) pectations of single-digit consumer-price rises. In the past three years ago he warned that three years the government has agreed to the introduction of the job of a central banker was an inflation-targeting regime and the creation of a monetary- not to chase votes or Facebook policy committee. And under his leadership the RBI has forced “likes”. With just weeks until the state-owned banks to recognise trillions of rupees of dud expiry of his term in September, loans made in a mini-credit-boom five years ago. That has and with no news on whether he might be kept on, the en- earned Mr Rajan the enmity ofa few (not least some of India’s dorsements have built up anyway. Nearly 60,000 well-wish- most powerful tycoons) who had hoped their debts would be ers have signed an online petition asking Narendra Modi, In- quietly forgotten. dia’s prime minister, to extend his tenure. Various Rajan- Greater trials are to come. Whoever runs the RBI next year devoted pages on Facebook have a combined fandom of over may face the first proper test of the new inflation-targeting re- 250,000 people. Janet Yellenand Mario Draghi, his all-power- gime, particularly if India pays more for crude oil (which it im- ful counterparts in America and Europe respectively, cannot ports in large quantities) or if, against expectations, food prices muster10,000 thumbs-up between them. are pushed up by a third year of drought. Having an experi- Such adulation makes many suspicious. Mr Rajan has enced governor like Mr Rajan would bed the system down. come under sometimes ugly attackfrom within Mr Modi’s BJP A sharper focus will also be needed on banks. Recognising party.One member ofparliament has described him as “men- the bad loans was a necessary first step, but it will be years be- tally not fully Indian” on account of his international career. fore they are dealt with properly. Anew bankruptcy law due to (Mr Rajan came to global prominence as chief economist of come into force over the next couple of years should help the IMF and is a plausible candidate for the fund’s top job.) The banksstayoutoftrouble—ifthe RBI can make sure it is properly criticism has made a swift reappointment politically tricky. implemented. A set of new banks given freshly minted li- Many guess that a second Rajan term is on the cards: sitting RBI cences will require sound supervision. governors are ritually reappointed, to bring their term to five years. But few expect word to come before August, despite Last days of Rajan? some previous governors getting the nod as much as seven Mr Modi may be calculating that a short delay is economically months in advance. costless. Not so. Talkof “Rexit” while the government refuses That would be a mistake. Mr Modi should stop dithering to make a decision on the governor’s future has shaken the ru- and reappoint Mr Rajan as soon as he can. The case forextend- pee. International investors the government has tried so hard ing his tenure rests both on his performance and on the chal- to woo are perplexed. Despite enviable growth numbers, In- lenges that await (see page 75). Mr Rajan was appointed in the dia is not in such good shape that it can afford self-inflicted midst ofan incipient balance-of-payments crisis, which he did harm, especially with the global economy in a sorry state. Mr well to defuse. On his watch inflation has fallenfrom over10% Rajan should be asked to stay on without furtherado. 7

South Africa Cracking the monolith

Voters should stop giving the African National Congress a blankcheque GOVERNMENT without a National Congress (ANC) for its long years of struggle against Aserious opposition is a dan- white rule. But that does not give the liberators a right to gov- gerous thing, even in a demo- ern for ever. Like any political party, they should be judged by cracy. Unlessvotershave a genu- results. And owing to policy drift, cronyism and corruption, ine alternative, the ruling party the results are not good. has little incentive to govern Unemployment stands at 26.7%, by the government’s own well. And ifone party has all the reckoning; add in discouraged workers who no longer bother power, those who wish to abuse to register and the number is more like 35%. The economy public office to enrich themselves will surely join it. shrank by an annualised 1.2% in the first quarter of this year, Since democracy came to South Africa with the dismant- aftergrowingby only 0.4% in the quarterbefore. South African ling of apartheid and the holding of the first all-race elections bonds are rated one notch above junk, and a further down- in 1994, the country has been utterly dominated by one party. grade is expected by the end of 2016. In the past year the rand South Africans owe a vast debt of gratitude to the African has lost15% ofits value against the dollar. 1 The Economist June 18th 2016 Leaders 17

2 Politically,the situation looks awful, too. In March the presi- page 51). Municipal elections are due on August 3rd. The DA dent, Jacob Zuma, was found guilty by the country’s highest has run Cape Town well and honestly for many years. It has court of having violated the constitution by refusing an order high hopes ofbreakingout ofthat enclave and taking powerin to pay back money he took from the state to build himself a several other big cities. The greatest prize would be Johannes- private mansion. Corruption charges against him, dropped in burg, the country’s commercial capital. That race may be be- 2009, are likely to be reinstated soon. Last year the president yond its reach, but others are not. If the DA can take, and make fired his respected finance minister, apparently because he a good fist of running, a slate of municipalities, that will stand had refused to sign off on a nuclear-power deal with Russia it in excellent stead at the 2019 general election. that Mr Zuma favoured. Rumours planted by the president’s cronies last month suggested that the current, also impressive, Incremental reformers v revolutionary hucksters finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, faced imminent arrest (he To do so, it must overcome two obstacles. First, it must per- has so far survived, but is weakened and consequently less suade black South Africans, who are 80% of the population, likely to challenge Mr Zuma’s excesses). that it is not just a party for white and coloured (mixed-race) Until the ANC faces a genuine threat at the ballot box, none people. Here it has made progress: it is now led by a blackpoli- of this is likely to change. It won 62% of the vote at the most re- tician and is the closest thing South Africa has to a post-racial cent general election, in 2014. Its nearest rival, the Democratic party.Second, it must persuade voters that the best alternative Alliance (DA), managed barely a third of that. Still, the ruling to the ANC is the DA’s platform of incremental liberal reform, party is not as secure as it once was: a breakaway far-left group, rather than the EFF’s wild promises of revolution, nationalisa- the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), took a surprising 6%. tion and jobs for all. South Africa needs an opposition, but not And now the ANC faces what could be its toughest test yet (see one that sees Zimbabwe as a role model. 7

Female genital mutilation An agonising choice

After30 years ofattempts to eradicate a barbaric practice, it continues. Time to try a new approach F ALL the ways in which worst forms, permit those that cause no long-lasting harm and Female genital mutilation Owomen and girls are made try to persuade parents to choose the least nasty version, or Girls aged 15-19 cut, 1997-2011, % to suffer because of their sex, in- none at all. However distasteful, it is better to have a symbolic 60 70 80 90 100 Somalia fibulation is perhaps the worst. nick from a trained health worker than to be butchered in a Djibouti Each year 400,000 are subject- back room by a village elder. If health workers also advised Mali Sierra Leone ed to this atrocity in which the parents that even minor rituals are unnecessary, progress to- Egypt external genitals are excised and wards eradication could continue. Ethiopia the vagina stitched almost com- Might “harm reduction” lend spurious legitimacy to all pletely closed (see page 63). More than 4m undergo some form types of FGM? Yes, but it has worked in other fields. Shooting of female genital mutilation (FGM) each year—a range of prac- galleries for heroin reduced HIV without increasing drug-tak- tices, from infibulation at one end, through incisions or pricks ing. Free housing keeps homeless alcoholics out of hospital that hurt but cause no lasting damage, to the merely symbolic, and, by making their lives less chaotic, helps them drink less. such as rubbing the genitals with herbs. A different comparison, with male circumcision, is also in- For three decades campaigners, led by the UN, have tried to structive. Unless botched, that procedure causes no lasting end all FGM. They have pushed for bans and prosecutions; pain or impairment—but it also has no medical justification trained medical practitioners to refuse requests for it; lobbied (except to slow the spread of HIV in countries where it is com- religious leaders to oppose it (though FGM is not mentioned in mon). Nonetheless, circumcision is widely accepted, because the Koran, many Muslims regard it as part of their faith); and of its cultural and religious significance. Activists focus on un- tried to persuade parents of its dangers. They have had some hygienic traditional versions. success. Between 1985 and 2015 the countries where FGM is most common saw the share ofgirls cut fall from 51% to 37%. From worse to merely bad There are good arguments fora blanket ban on FGM. One is No one knows whether parents could be persuaded to aban- that medical procedures with no possible benefit are uneth- don the worst horrors of FGM for versions that, while still ical—especially when inflicted without consent, on children. pointless and painful, would not leave their daughters dam- Another is revulsion at FGM’s misogynist roots: the motive is aged forlife. That is because no one has tried. Various Western generally to cleanse the girl of some supposed impurity and doctors have advocated offeringminorforms ofgenital cutting tame her sexual desires, thus ensuring her virginity until mar- to sub-Saharan immigrants, in the hope ofsparingtheir daugh- riage and fidelity thereafter. ters from a trip home for infibulation. Each time the outrage— But progress has been slow, especially in the African coun- from the UN, activists and many other medics—has forced tries where the worst forms are common. On current trends, them to retract. most girls in Somalia and Djibouti will see their own daugh- Faced with the urgency of saving 400,000 girls from severe ters mutilated, too. mutilation each year, arguments without evidence are not It is therefore time to consider a new approach. Instead of good enough. There is only one way to find out whether FGM trying to stamp FGM out entirely, governments should ban the can be ameliorated more quickly than ended: try it and see. 7 18 Letters The Economist June 18th 2016

In or out? ish businesses by giving them the Arab crises, renewable PolitiFact awarded Donald a level playing-field with their energy…the list is unending. Trump the title of“Liar ofthe Like Bagehot (May 28th) I have competitors in the EU, reduc- He covers his mistakes as well Year”. This was because appar- felt the powerful emotional ing the cost ofcomplying with as he covers his balding crown. ently only 2% ofwhat he says draw to stay in Europe: prox- varying regulations in different With increasing difficulty. is true, 22% is either mainly imity, familiarity and conve- member states and driving MIKE DONOVAN true or halftrue, and the other nience. But my worst business innovation by setting stan- Ross-on-Wye, Herefordshire 86% is either mostly false, false decisions have sprung from dards, such as on energy effi- or so false it rates a “pants on the heart and ignored the logic ciency, that apply across the IfindEU referendum politics to fire”. Mr Trump claims he only ofengaging with businesses single market and its 500m be thoroughly fatiguing and gets up to fourhours sleep a that speakmy language and consumers. eagerly await a conclusion. night. Ifthat is true, it would share my vision, values and It would be a shame if Averse to upheaval, I will be certainly explain a lot. rules. We got married to Eu- British businesses, which are backing Brinertia. SIMON CLEWS rope after our first proposal often at the cutting edge of SUJATA BISWAS Surrey, Canada was rejected by Charles de sustainability and low-carbon Oxford Gaulle and we paid a hefty innovation, lost the opportuni- Definition and meaning dowry to win his hand. We ty to influence these rules in An unpopular tag hoped to change our spouse to the future. After reading Johnson’s attack our better ways. Our hearts NICK MOLHO The Economist’s addiction to on “language guardians” (June swayed us to save that mar- Executive director the epithet “populist” has spun 4th) I confess sympathy forthe riage even ifthe spouse did not Aldersgate Group out ofcontrol. Youput that poor crusader who removed become who we hoped. London label on pitches and policies as “comprised of” from Wikipe- My business head suggests different as hard-wired dia articles. I feel the same we should end our struggling, xenophobes, plutocrato- about “forthcoming” and restricted relationship with a phobes, economic chancers, “forthright”. The former, prop- declining Europe, without thoughtful progressives, trade erly used, has a timing compo- excluding or forgoing our protectionists and political nent, as in “the forthcoming European trade and travel, and opportunists. Yourrecent list bookis much anticipated”. enjoy a restored broad trading includes (among many others) Lately, though, it has become a relationship with the vaster, Pat Buchanan, Marine Le Pen, synonym for“forthright”, growing global common- the Kirchners, Jeremy Corbyn, meaning honest and frank, to market ofthe English-speaking assorted middle-European the point it has virtually world that we abandoned and cryptofascists, the Sun, a long- displaced it. which is where our history established centrist Irish politi- JEFF MERCER truly lies. Restoring that trade cal party,Latin American Chicago relationship would do more to Why do London-centric jour- presidents who cap the pay of tackle world poverty, curb nalists thinkHadrian’s Wall is senior civil servants, and the I nervously differfrom conflict and moderate migra- on the border with Scotland chiefminister ofSarawakwho Johnson. The word “of” in tion than our membership of (“Tug ofwar”, June 4th)? It is in (good grief!) did away with “comprised of” is surely redun- the European Union can ever the south ofthe English county road tolls and brought in new dant, as in “water comprises achieve. It is not our role to ofNorthumberland, as any protections forthe environ- hydrogen and oxygen”. prevent conflict in Europe; it is glance at a map would show. ment (“Rumbles in the jungle”, BARRY LEWIS to prevent it in the world. Unless there is some May 7th). New York Divorce is emotionally Machiavellian plan to cede What do the members of painful, costly and comes with vast areas ofnorthern England this vast, ever-growing I disagree that the degradation uncertain prospects but, if the to Scotland, it would be more universe actually have in ofmeaning simply means that relationship has soured, it is appropriate to place post- common? First, they seekto language has “moved on”. If best forboth parties: ifone is Brexit customs controls along appeal to people (find me the we use “comprise” inter- brave enough to let the head the River Tweed. politician who doesn’t). And changeably for“compose”, or rule the heart. DAVID HURRELL second, The Economist doesn’t “begs the question” for IAN GORDON Alnwick, Northumberland approve ofthem. I suggest “prompts the question” we Managing director restraint. lose the shades ofmeaning IDG Security Take care your criticism of BRYAN DUNLAP which help intelligent dis- Singapore Britain’s opposition leader New York course. Indeed, we head inev- doesn’t become a phobia itably to something that is As you noted (“Yes, we have (“Jeremy Corbyn, saboteur”, MrTrump should take a nap doubleplusungood. no straight bananas”, May June 11th). A politician who MICHAEL CORGAN 28th), EU standards and regu- steps out ofthe limelight is rare Schumpeter’s column from the Associate professor of lations are essential to the indeed, and has many virtues. May 28th issue mentioned two international relations proper functioning ofthe We have seen the opposite in studies, one which found that Boston University 7 single market. The EU’s envi- our prime minister whose staying awake for20 hours has ronmental rules focus on policy is based on knee-jerk the same effect on performing issues like climate change and reactions, not only in an un- cognitive tasks as having a Letters are welcome and should be addressed to the Editor at air pollution that are better necessary referendum on the blood-alcohol level of0.1%, The Economist, 25 St James’s Street, tackled at a cross-border rather EU which has all but paralysed and the other suggesting that London sw1A 1hg than at a national level. The Westminster for three months, being deprived ofsleep leads E-mail: [email protected] environmental rules have also but on education, airport people to adopt a more nega- More letters are available at: had a positive impact on Brit- runways, high-speed trains, tive attitude. Economist.com/letters Executive Focus 19

The Economist June 18th 2016 20 Executive Focus

The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID)

The OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID), based in Vienna – Austria, is the development ﬁ nance institution established by the Member States of OPEC in 1976 as a collective channel of aid to the developing countries. OFID works in cooperation with developing country partners and the international donor community to stimulate economic growth and alleviate poverty in all disadvantaged regions of the world. To date, OFID has made ﬁ nancial commitments of more than US$ 19 billion to over 3,500 operations across 134 countries worldwide.

In pursuit of its Organizational Strengthening Program, OFID has openings at the Management level and seeks to ﬁ ll the following vacancies:

Assistant Director-General (ADG), Financial Operations Department – (Ref.: VA101/2016) The Assistant Director-General (ADG), Financial Operations Department is responsible for all ﬁ nancial management and ﬁ nance-related activities of OFID. The tasks involve overseeing the management of OFID’s discretionary reserves comprising a multi-billion dollars portfolio; including its safety, its liquidity and the maximization of returns. He/she supervises the activities of Treasury and Control Units of the Financial Operations Department.

Director, Information Department – (Ref.: VA803/2016) The Director of the Information Department is responsible for overseeing OFID’s information dissemination programs to governments and all other development partners, special interest groups, the media, and the general public. He/she will serve as the focal point for delivering OFID’s information outputs in various ways, including periodic public information campaigns. He/she is expected to develop information management strategies that raise substantially OFID’s proﬁ le in the short, medium and long terms.

OFID offers an internationally competitive remuneration and beneﬁ ts package, which includes tax- exempt salary, dependent children education grant, relocation grant, home leave allowance, medical and accident insurance schemes, dependency allowance, annual leave, staff retirement beneﬁ t, diplomatic immunity and privileges, as applicable.

Interested applicants are invited to visit OFID’s website at www.oﬁ d.org for detailed descriptions of duties and required qualiﬁ cations, as well as procedure for applications. Consideration will only be given to applications of nationals from OFID Member Countries.

The deadline for receipt of applications is July 1, 2016.

Due to the expected volume of applications, OFID would only enter into further correspondence with short-listed candidates. The Economist June 18th 2016 Executive Focus 21

The Economist June 18th 2016 22 Brieﬁng Brexit The Economist June 18th 2016

What if? Also in this section 23 Voices from overseas 24 A bad-tempered campaign 25 Heard on the trail BERLIN, LONDON, PARIS AND ROME The aftermath ofa vote to leave the European Union will depend on unpredictable responses in all sorts ofplaces. It is unlikely to be pretty EFOREthecampaigningforBritain’sref- those negotiations; some in the Leave ulations while having no say in writing B erendum on the European Union hit its camp, such as Michael Gove, the justice them. And it contributes heavily to the EU stride, some people quaintly imagined secretary, say that they, too, would like him budget forthis privilege. that it might settle things once and for all, to stay. But it is hard to imagine that the vic- The Leave campaign’s strongest cards lancing the boil of an argument that has torious Leavers would really be happy see- are the public’s distaste for immigration, its been festering for the best part of a genera- ing the leader of the Remain campaign ne- desire forself-determination and its dislike tion. Fat chance. A victory for Remain gotiating Britain’s new deal with the EU. of sending money to Brussels (see next would leave Britain divided, the losers em- The odds are that the Torieswould be look- story). This suggests that the Norwegian bittered and political life coarsened (see ing fora new leader within days. option would be unacceptable to the pro- Bagehot). A victory for Leave, which is Leave majority of the Tory rank and file, what the latest opinion polls predict, All ornothing at all who will get the final say in the choice of would see economic turmoil and political What sort ofdeal might that new leader try the next party leader. The prospective strife as the winning side learned that, for to get? Some want no deal at all. A group leader who wins their support is likely to all it might have talked of taking back con- called Economists for Brexit (EFB) suggests have to promise blocks on the free move- trol, it remained at the mercy of economic simplyabolishingall importtariffs. The en- ment of labour. That probably means get- forces and the members ofthe union it had suingrise in trade, itsays, would boost GDP ting nothing more than a bespoke free- spurned. by 4%. Yet this prediction relies on small trade deal for some sectors at best, with David Cameron says that if Britain changes in trade costs having implausibly WTO rules the fallbackoption. votes to leave he will immediately invoke large effects on how much trade goes on, Once that leader becomes prime minis- Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which sets say researchers at the London School of ter, though, he orshe will have to deal with out the rules for negotiating a member Economics. Besides, the EFB assumptions the will ofParliament. Fewer than 150 Con- state’s departure. That would give the two are politically implausible. servative MPs and only a handful from La- sides two years to finalise a deal—a timeta- At the other end of the range of options bour are openly backing Leave; even if ble thatcan be extended onlywith the con- is a deal in which Britain, while leaving the some others are playing a waiting game, sentofall concerned. Ifno agreement were EU in accord with the will of its people, re- that suggests a large majority for Remain reached Britain would have to fall back on mains part ofthe EU’s single market. This is among the 650 members of the House of trading with the EU under World Trade Or- the arrangement Norway has, by dint of Commons. Those MPs might well prefer a ganisation (WTO) rules, which would im- the European Economic Area; Switzerland, Norwegian option to WTO rules. If push ply tariffs and no special deal for financial though not a member of the EEA, has came to shove—and the campaign has services. something similar. In Norway’s case the shown a marked tendencyforpushingand MrCameron also sayshe will stay on as deal means accepting the free movement shoving—a Tory leader committed to a prime minister and represent Britain in of labour and observing almost all EU reg- right-out-of-the-single-market version of1 The Economist June 18th 2016 Briefing Brexit 23

2 Brexit might not be able to win a vote of confidence. An autumn general election In their words (I) could then follow. Heard from overseas Whether MPs go that farwill depend in part on how dire the economic response to a Leave vote turns out to be; the worse things look, the more important it will seem to try and stay in the single market. “The US and the world need your out- “Avote to leave would make the UK a Estimates of Britain’s economic growth sized influence to continue—including less attractive destination forJapanese this year have already dropped to 2%, bare- within Europe.” investment.” ly above what is expected ofthe euro-zone Barack Obama, American president, April Shinzo Abe, Japanese prime minister, May (though were Brexit to come about, the 23rd. 5th. euro-zone’s growth would be hit, too). In- vestors have been selling sterling assets at “I...would hope and wish forthe UK to “From our point ofview, it is an unal- the fastest rate since the financial crisis of stay part and parcel ofthe EU.” loyed plus for Britain to remain in the 2007-08; the pound has dropped by 7.5% Angela Merkel, German chancellor, June EU.” over the past 12 months. This is part of a 2nd. Malcolm Turnbull, Australian prime min- broader move into saferassets (see Button- ister, May1st. wood), but it also reflects Brexit fears. “I don’t want to scare you but…there will The National Institute for Social and be consequences in many areas.” “It is possible to live outside the EU. One Economic Research (NIESR), a think-tank, François Hollande, French president, is free or one is not.” predicts a 2.9% fall in GDP in the short run March 3rd. Marine Le Pen, leader of the French Nation- and worse in the long run, brought about al Front, April 20th. by factors like lower trade and falling for- “Brexit would be a defeat forEurope, but eign direct investment. The knock-on ef- it would be a disaster for the United “I know Great Britain very well…I would fects would hit productivity and wages; a Kingdom.” say they’re better offwithout it.” further fall in sterling would push up Matteo Renzi, Italian prime minister, May Donald Trump, Republican candidate for prices. Tighter controls on migration 27th. the American presidency, May 5th. would make things worse. Wonks are poor forecasters, say Brexit- eers. Indeed, the Leave camp claimsthat re- its president, François Hollande, has kept shockingtheirpolitical leaders. Today they cent data suggest Brexit might help the quiet during the referendum campaign, for are second only to Greece in their Euro- economy. In April exports rose to their fear ofprovoking greater pro-Brexit feeling, scepticism. A new Pew poll finds that 61% highest level for three years in nominal he made his views clear at a Franco-British of French voters have an unfavourable terms. A Brexit-induced slump in sterling, summit in Amiens in March. “I don’t want view ofthe EU; the British figure is just 48%. the argument goes, would boost the econ- to scare you,” he said, but a Brexit vote The French government is also working omy further. This is not necessarily true. would have “consequences”. on ideas to breathe life into the European Foreign orders do not respond instantly to projectthatwill focuson defence and secu- depreciation—which also raises the cost of The kindness of soon-to-be strangers rity co-operation. There is irritation in Paris imported inputs. The hit to confidence and French politicians see playing hardball in that the government has put European ini- credit from Brexit would hurt exporters the negotiations rather as Voltaire saw the tiatives on hold for many months to avoid more than a weak pound would help. In execution of Admiral Byng following his upsetting British voters. “This can’t go on 2008-09, when sterling slumped, exports loss ofMinorca; the sort ofthingthat has to for ever,” says one minister. France wants barely responded. be done “pour encourager les autres”. The to present these ideas to the European On June 14th George Osborne, the worse Britain does on its own, the more it Council at the end of June and hopes for chancellor, said that in light of these likely will encourage others to stick with the EU. Germany’s support. Thomas de Maizière, effects a Leave vote would necessitate an This includes the others at home; France’s the German interior minister, sat in on a emergency budget to raise taxes and cut populist National Front is promisingvoters French cabinet meeting on June 15th; Mrs spending. Mr Osborne’s announcement their own referendum. In 2005 the French Merkel was due to watch the Germany-Po- feels more like an attempt to frighten vot- voted down the draft EU constitution, land football match with Mr Hollande at ers—or perhaps a scorched-earth strategy— the Stade de France the next day. than a politically plausible plan. But at Like the French, German politicians are some point a deficit swollen by Brexit cautious in discussing Brexit for fear that would have to be dealt with. foreign warnings could boost the Leave The severity of the prompt economic campaign. But the country is keen for Brit- fallout may determine what sort of deal ain to stay. Germany wants the EU to move Britain tries to get. But the results ofany ne- in a broadly Anglo-Saxon direction (see gotiations will depend on how generous Charlemagne). It would like it to concen- its EU partners would be. The terms of any trate on cutting bureaucracy, returning new trade deal would have to be agreed on powers to governments (while limiting unanimously, which could make the com- state intervention) and co-operating more plexity of the negotiations overwhelming. in foreign policy rather than pushing deep- Donald Tusk, president of the European er integration. “In Berlin everyone’s keep- Council, says it might easily take seven ing fingers crossed,” says David McAllister, years. And the three biggest economies, a German member of the European Parlia- Our series of “Brexit Briefs” on the issues Germany, France and Italy, while all want- ment who has a Scottish father. If Brexit surrounding Britain’s EU referendum is ingBritain to remain, are not willing to let it wins, he says, he will cry fordays. available as a free PDF at leave unscathed. Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance economist.com/Brexit France is the foremost scold. Although minister, has warned that Britain cannot 1 24 Briefing Brexit The Economist June 18th 2016

2 expect favourable treatment after an exit working or studying in Britain. would seek fundamental reforms in Brit- vote. “In is in. Out is out,” he says. But And, as in France, there is a fear that ain’s relationship with the EU and then many expect Germany, which has a big Brexit would encourage Euroscepticism at hold a referendum on whether to stay in. trade surplus with Britain and would not home, both in the xenophobic Northern Leading a coalition government at the wantto damage itsown exporters, to take a League and the populist Five Star Move- time, he may have made the promise ex- softer line than France. “Germany will ment. Given the sick state of Italy’s econ- pecting never to have the backing ofParlia- play the good cop, and France will play the omy, which has barely grown since it ment that would be necessary to keep it. bad cop,” says Yves Bertoncini, director of joined the euro, they might easily be con- But when the Tories won a small overall the Jacques Delors Institute. But this does vinced to leave. majority in May 2015, he found himself on not mean Germany will truly be on Brit- Would Mr Renzi’s government join oth- the spot. His renegotiation of Britain’s ain’s side, any more than good cops really ers in taking a tough line? “We are not par- membership, which culminated in a deal side with crooks. The National Front and ticularly tough. It is not in our DNA,” says between EU heads of government secured Frexit frighten Germany, too. Marta Dassu at the Aspen Institute, who is in the small hours of February 20th, was Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minis- also a formerjunior foreign minister. “But I not without substance. But it fell well short ter, has played down Brexit, saying that it thinkwe would wish to align ourpositions of fundamental reform, and it has subse- would be a disasterforthe British, but nota with those of France and Germany. We quently proved more of a handicap than a huge drama for Italy and the EU. But Italy would want to stay in the core.” boost. To prove he was in earnest, Mr Cam- would definitelylike Britain to stay. Forone IfBrexit means that this core fears forits eron had said that, should the negotiation thing Mr Renzi often finds himself on the continued cohesion, or is unable to per- not yield what he wanted, he himself same side as Britain in the council; he suade all the other members of the EU to would vote Leave. This means that, when would feel more isolated without it. There accept a new trading arrangement, the he now talks of the grim economic conse- is also scarcely a middle-class family in Ita- chances of Britain getting a good deal from quences ofBrexit, he has no answerto why ly’s big cities that does not have a child its formerpartners will be slim indeed. 7 he was willing to countenance such consequences just a few months ago. Harold Wilson, the Labour prime min- The referendum campaign ister who offered a similar renegotiation- followed-by-referendum deal at the gen- The Battle of Evermore eral election of October1974, wisely avoided putting himself in such a position. His campaign had other advantages, too. Wil- son could rely on the Conservative opposition to campaign staunchly for an In vote. This time support from the Labour leader, It has been a bad-tempered and unenlightening campaign, during which few have Jeremy Corbyn, has been muted at best. He changed theirminds. But Vote Leave now has an edge refused to appear with Tory campaigners PPEARING alongside David Cameron warned that the issue was not going to and is fighting for Remain not on the basis Aon April 23rd, Barack Obama urged work for them at the polls; if the Tories that EU membership is a good thing in it- Britain to stay in the European Union. If it wanted to be elected again, they must stop self but that Brexit might presage an attack were to leave and seek a trade deal with “banging on about Europe”. on workers’ rights. America, the president warned, it would Yet after he became prime minister in In 1975 Wilson also had the near unani- find itself “in the back of the queue”. The 2010, Mr Cameron found it helpful to con- mous backing of Fleet Street. This time a prime minister was visibly pleased. Yet vince his party of his bona fides by ignor- Reuters Institute study finds 45% of news- days later several opinion polls had ing his own advice. In January 2013 he paper articles for Leave and only 27% for switched towards Leave. In retrospect, this went beyond his previous pledge to hold a Remain (the rest being uncommitted). On seems the closest thing to a turning-point referendum on any new EU treaty,promis- June 14th the Sun, Britain’s biggest-selling that the campaign has seen. The mood being that a future Conservative government daily, came out for Brexit. The broadcast-1 came clearer. Voters were signalling that they were no longer heeding warnings about economic damage orthe sage advice ofworld leaders, even those whom, in general, they respected. They were attracted instead to the romance, excitement and perhaps sheer uncertainty ofBrexit. After months ofpolling that was broadly even-stevens, the Leave campaign has begun to open up a small lead. Since the end of May,the odds of Leave winning the vote on June 23rd have narrowed from around 6 to 1 to about 2 to 1, farhigher than anyone expected when the referendum was called, despite the fact that the leaders of all the main parties in Parliament oppose Brexit. How did this come about? A large part of the answer is a string of tactical mistakes on the part of Mr Camer- on. When he became Tory leader in 2005 he reassured the party’s members, who have a strongly Eurosceptic cast, that he was one of them. At the same time, he Waiting for the angels of Avalon The Economist June 18th 2016 Briefing Brexit 25

Peaks and troughs REFERENDUM DAVID CAMERON AND NIGEL FARAGE CAMPAIGN BEGINS QUESTIONED BEFORE LIVE TV AUDIENCE Voting intention in the referendum on Britain’s European Union membership*, % replying VOTER REGISTRATION JEREMY CORBYN BARACK OBAMA GOVERNMENT NO LONGER DEADLINE. EXTENDED Remain Leave Don’t know MICHAEL GOVE AND GISELA STUART WARNS LEAVING WOULD CAUSE URGES BRITAIN ALLOWED TO PUBLISH TO JUNE 9TH AFTER NAMED AS HEADS OF LEAVE CAMPAIGN “BONFIRE” OF WORKERS’ RIGHTS TO REMAIN CAMPAIGN MATERIALS SURGE OF INTEREST 60 DONALD TUSK PUBLISHES PROPOSED EU SUMMIT REFERENDUM DATE BORIS JOHNSON JOINS REMAIN CAMPAIGNS NEW DEAL FOR BRITAIN AND EU DISCUSSES REFORMS SET FOR JUNE 23RD LEAVE CAMPAIGN TO ENGAGE YOUTH VOTE 50

0 January February March April May June Sources: BMG; ComRes; ICM; Ipsos MORI; Opinium; Survation; TNS; YouGov 2016 *Average when more than one poll in a day

2 ers, in particular the state-owned BBC, ing Will Straw, its executive director, is trashed each other and Leavers freely ac- have been almost neurotic in offsetting hardly an attack dog, unlike his counter- cuse Remainersofwantingto join the euro. each Remain argument with a damning parts at Vote Leave, Matthew Elliott and This excites Leave voters in the Tory rank comment from Leave. That has done won- the pugnacious Dominic Cummings. and file, turns offnon-Toriesand makes the ders forthe Leave camp’s credibility. Both sides have resorted to exaggera- prime minister’s purported belief that an But perhaps Wilson’s greatest advan- tion and misrepresentation, with the par- open debate would foster party unity look tage was a weakness. In 1975 Britain’s econ- ticipants openly accusing each other of ly- more misguided than ever. omy was in such poor shape that even to ing. Labour could have adjudicated. But Although disciplined, dishonest cam- thinkofpulling away from a more success- with it mostly off the field, these argu- paigning has worked to the Leave cam- ful continent seemed madness. Today ments have often been “blue on blue”. paign’s advantage, playing to widespread things are not so bad in Britain—and they Members of Mr Cameron’s cabinet have hostility to immigration has been its big-1 look worse across the channel. The euro- zone’s ills lend rhetorical credence to the Leavers’ slogan that Britain is shackled to a In their words (II) corpse, and that goes some way to defus- Heard on the trail ing the argument on which Remain has relied most strongly: that Brexit would be bad forthe economy. As Jagjit Chadha, directorofthe Nation- al Institute for Economic and Social Re- “To be in a reformed European Union… politics; rather it would be political to search think-tank, says, when it comes to would be the best ofboth worlds.” suppress important judgments.” forecasts, economists usually disagree. But David Cameron, February 2nd Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of on Brexit they do not. A host of studies in England, on a bank report outlining the Britain—by his own institute, the Treasury, “We’ve got the best lyrics, but we’re still consequences of Brexit, April 19th the Institute of Fiscal Studies, Oxford Eco- struggling fora tune.” nomics, PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Alan Johnson, Labour MP and Remain “There is another view ofBritain that is Centre for European Reform and the Cen- campaigner, February 26th more in tune with our patriotic ideas tre for Economic Performance at the Lon- about ourself. It is ofa Britain that has don School of Economics—agree with in- “Queen backs Brexit.” always been outward looking and not ternational bodies—the IMF and the OECD The Sun, March 8th (The Independent Press inward looking. It is a Britain that, for all rich-country think-tank—that Brexit would Standards Organisation later ruled the its faults, has been internationalist not mean less trade, lower foreign direct in- headline “significantly misleading”) isolationist.” vestment and slower productivity growth. Gordon Brown, former Labour prime Even pro-Brexit economists concede that “The fundamental problem remains: that minister, May10th the immediate shock following a leave they have an ideal that we do not share. vote would be negative, bearing out the They want to create a truly federal union, “Napoleon, Hitler, various people tried Treasury’s claim that it would mean a “do- e pluribus unum, when most British this out, and it ends tragically. The EU is an it-yourself” recession. The few economists people do not.” attempt to do this by different methods.” who produce positive results for Brexit do Boris Johnson, former mayor of London Boris Johnson, May15th so by filling their models with wholly in- and Leave campaigner, March 16th credible assumptions. “People in this country have had enough This advantage on the economy was “[It is]perfectly possible to be critical and ofexperts.” widely seen as making Remain a pretty still be convinced we need to remain a Michael Gove, justice secretary and Leave sure thing when the campaign began. That member.” campaigner, June 2nd it no longer seems so reflects a number of Jeremy Corbyn, Labour Party leader, April factors. The Remain campaign has been 14th “Leaving is quitting and I don’t think less vigorous and ruthless than the Leave we’re quitters. We’re fighters. We fight in one. Stuart Rose, a former boss of Marks & “Assessing and reporting major risks these organisations.” Spencer, has been an ineffective chairman does not mean becoming involved in David Cameron, June 7th ofBritain Strongerin Europe. The self-effac- 26 Briefing Brexit The Economist June 18th 2016

2 gest winner. That the migration numbers economy would hit the public finances, released on May 26th showed a net inflow which is why the IFS has said that Brexit of 330,000 during 2015 would have been would require two more years of austerity. an embarrassment for Mr Cameron at any And tighter immigration controls would time; the Conservative manifestos forboth play havoc with NHS staffing: 10% of its the 2010 and the 2015 elections promised doctors come from the EU. Chris Hopson, utterly unrealistically to get the numbers chief executive of NHS Providers, which down to “the tens of thousands”. In the represents managers of NHS hospitals and context of the referendum campaign they trusts, reports that 75% of his members be- wereaterribleblow. lieve that Brexit would have a negative im- Not that it is clear what Brexiteers pact on the NHS. would actually do about immigration. That said, other downsides ofBrexit are They have suggested an Australian-style routinely exaggerated by Remainers. The “points” system for would-be migrants, claim that 3m jobs which depend on trade but as Remainers say, this is designed for with the EU might disappear is ludicrous. countries with proportionately more mi- There is similarly little reason to believe grants than Britain, not fewer. Although that France would scrap the bilateral deal some Brexiteers talk of admitting more that put the border with Britain in Calais. non-EU migrants, it is hard to believe that Neither side provides much by way of voters for Brexit would welcome this. In- uplifting or optimistic arguments. Some deed, since non-EU immigration still Leavershave tried. Theypainta picture ofa makes up over half the total, to reach the Britain “in control ofits destiny” becoming targetthe Torieshave repeatedlypromised, To fight the hordes, and sing and cry more not less liberal and more not less non-EU immigration would have to be cut, open to the world: a sort of sovereignty- not increased. tempts to portray Turkey’s accession to the blessed Singapore on steroids. But this is Compared with the economy and im- EU as imminent and a done deal were not a picture that inspires the voters on migration, most other concerns have been deeply misleading; but their biggest lie of whom they are relying. Many of those sideshows. Brexit poses a clear risk to the all has been about money.As the House of backing Brexit are more than likely to be United Kingdom, with Scotland poten- Commons Treasury committee has said, against globalisation and free trade as well tially demanding a second independence the claim on the Brexit “battle bus” that as immigration; they believe that they referendum and Northern Ireland desta- Britainsends£350maweektoBrusselsthat have been losers from all three. bilised by the reimposition of border con- could be spent on the National Health Ser- To court these voters the Leave cam- trols with Ireland. But this seems not to vice instead is simply untrue. In fact, the paign has taken on a steadily more popu- have swayed many English voters. Mr gross sum is around £250m, and it falls to list and anti-elite tone, even though most Cameron has drummed up an impressive £120m after netting off EU spending in Brit- of its leaders are themselves part of that number offormerspooks to say that Brexit ain. Leavers have recently promised that elite. Thus the response of many to claims would undermine domestic security and recipients of EU money—farmers, dis- that business, the City of London, the uni- make it harder to co-operate in the fight tressed regions, scientific researchers and versities and much ofthe establishment fa- against terrorism. Foreign-policy gurus are the like—will be compensated post-Brexit, vour Remain is to see this as yet another clear that it would weaken Britain’s stand- which makes a nonsense of their previous reason to vote Leave. The appeal of giving ing in the world and damage the West’s promises to divert most of the cash to the a kick in the teeth to Mr Cameron and his standing in general; many say the only National Health Service and other deserv- Torygovernment is also clear. world leader who would welcome it is ing causes. That the richer and better-educated are Russia’s Vladimir Putin. But again, voters Those who actually work in the NHS, keeneron Remain, and the poorerand less- seem either unconvinced or unmoved. Mr fortheirpart, are fearfulofBrexit. Asmaller educated are for Leave is one of the three Cameron’s suggestion that Brexit might be clearest psephological features of the elec- a threat to peace in Europe persuaded few. torate. The others are that young people Though the specifics of foreign rela- are more likely than the old to vote Re- tions seem to carry little weight, the more main, as are people in big cities, especially abstract issue of sovereignty and the Leav- London, and in Scotland. Combined with ers’ slogan of “taking back control” does what is expected in terms ofturnout, these well forBrexiteers. Yet their attempt to por- factors help to explain why the result is so traystayingin asa riskierand more danger- hard to predict. Old people are more likely ous choice than leaving—characterised by to vote than the young, which istaken to fa- Michael Gove, the justice secretary, as be- vour Brexit; but the better-off and better ing locked in the boot of a car, bent on a educated also vote more than the less well- wild ride to political union—is harder to off, which will go some way to offsetting credit. Britain is not in the euro and has that effect. been promised an exemption from the What may make the most difference is goal of ever closer union. If the EU evolved the greater enthusiasm that the Leavers in a way that Britain found uncomfortable, have generated. And this is perhaps Mr it would always retain the option of leav- Cameron’s greatest failing of all. By not ing; in this, sovereignty is unaffected. But evincing, over a decade of party leader- the rhetoric of sovereignty has proved ap- ship, any positive feelings about Britain’s pealing in a way these facts have not. EU membership, he has ensured that the And then there is the plethora of half- main message from Remainers is the nega- truths, irrelevancies and downright lies tive one that Brexit would be damaging. If (see Bagehot). Both sides have dirty hands his side loses on June 23rd, he will have here, but the Leavers’ are grubbier. Their at- Nobody’s fault but mine only himselfto blame. 7 United States The Economist June 18th 2016 27

Also in this section 28 Watergate II 29 Computing boot-camps 29 The manosphere 30 Tiger parenting at college 31 Scandinavian-Americans 32 Lexington: Dealing with radicalisation

For daily analysis and debate on America, visit Economist.com/unitedstates Economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica

The Orlando shooting homophobia co-existed with an apparent history of visiting gay clubs and using gay Vigils and vigilantes hook-up apps, and whether his wife knew anything of his plans. But as the killing became fodder for political debate, the arguments soon swirled away from the circum- stances of his crime and up into a tempest of claims and counter-claims, levelled in WASHINGTON, DC duelling speeches and statements by Do- Reactions to a mass-murdershow the starkchoice facing voters in November nald Trump, Hillary Clinton and Barack HE murder by shooting in the early American bombing of Afghanistan, his Obama. Thatpointsto a final wayin which Thours of June 12th of 49 people at a gay parents’ home country, though he was the attack at the Pulse nightclub stands nightclub in Orlando, Florida, by a 29-year- born in New York. It emerged that Mr Ma- apart from other mass shootings. For it fell old Afghan-American who dedicated his teen had been investigated for ten months into a general-election campaign already act of evil to Islamic State (IS) was seized by the FBI after boasting of terrorist links marked by Mr Trump’sdemagogic appeals upon by partisans as vindication of every- while workingas a security guard. After in- to anti-Muslim sentiment. thing that they already believe about the terviewingMrMateen and placinghim un- Hours after the Orlando shooting, the fight against terrorism, the presence of dersurveillance, the FBI concluded that his property developer took to Twitter to re- Muslims in America and the prevalence of boasts were not credible, not least because port that he was being praised for his fore- powerful guns in private hands. he claimed ties to two groups, Hizbullah sight. “Appreciate the congrats for being Such massacres are common enough in and al-Qaeda, that are sworn foes. right on radical Islamic terrorism,” he America that there is a grim familiarity to Similar attacks have seen questions wrote. Soon afterwards he called on Mr the images of SWAT teams on suburban asked about missed clues or dots not con- Obama and Mrs Clinton to use the words streets, the press briefings by police chiefs nected. Much remains unclear about Mr “radical Islam” to describe the terror at- and mayors fighting back tears, makeshift Mateen’s motives and actions before the tacks, or resign as president and quit the shrines of candles and flowers and then— massacre—including how his murderous race forthe White House respectively. 1 all too soon—the competing, sombre-yet- outraged statements by politicians. This slaughter stands out, though. Mass shootings* † Orlando, FL, Jun 2016 50 Judged in terms of human loss, it marked United States, 1982-2016, number of fatalities 80 San Bernardino, CA, Dec 2015 16 the bloodiest mass shooting in modern Individual mass-shooting incidents American history. Weighed as a crime, it of which: Ten deadliest Newtown, CT, Dec 2012 28 showed the ever-more daunting task faced 60 Binghamton, NY, Apr 2009 14 Fort by law-enforcement agencies as they try to San Ysidro, CA Killeen, TX Hood, TX track “lone wolf” attackers. Once spooks Jul 1984 22 Oct 1991 24 Nov 2009 13 had to hunt terrorist gangs. Then they had 40 to adapt to a search for members of loose Edmond, OK Columbine, CO Blacksburg, VA terrorist franchises. Now the threat comes Aug 1986 15 Apr 1999 15 Apr 2007 33 from individuals who act like fans follow- 20 ing favourite sociopaths on social media. The killer in Orlando, Omar Mateen, who was shot dead by police, declared al- 0 legiance to IS by telephoning a 911 emer- 1982 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16‡ gency call centre. Witnesses in the club say *Shootings with three or more fatalities. Before January 2013, shootings with Sources: Mother Jones; press reports four or more fatalities. Not comprehensive †Includes perpetrators ‡To June 15th that he ascribed his murderous anger to 28 United States The Economist June 18th 2016

2 Itisa standard Republican talking-point lists. Citing worries about those placed on the DNC holding back? to demand that the president and his aides such lists by mistake, congressional Repub- The incident inevitably recalls the Wa- should admit that the country is “at war” licans blocked such a move last year, offer- tergate scandal of1972, when the DNC’s of- with “radical Islam”—the underlying ing a weaker alternative that would delay fices were burgled in an effort to steal cam- charge being that in its eagerness not to ap- gun sales while prosecutors try to con- paign secrets, which was later linked to pear bigoted the Obama administration vince a judge that a buyer has terrorist President Richard Nixon. Yet the compari- wilfully ignores religious ties that might links. Mr Trump says he wants to discuss son mainly highlights how much more help to identify bad actors, and that the gun bans for those on terror watch-lists. vulnerable to infiltration America’sinstitu- government fails to use all tools of Ameri- Many voters support this. Mr Trump tions have become. can power by treating terrorism as a matter prides himself on his feel for public opin- The DNC called in a cyber-security firm, forcivilian law enforcement. ion. He has said in interviews that though CrowdStrike, in April after noticing odd The public mood is sufficiently jumpy he does not hope for terrorist attacks, they things afoot in its computer network. The that on June 13th Mrs Clinton bowed to harm Mrs Clinton more than him. After firm discovered two groups of state- that pressure and assured a television in- this week it is clearer than ever what a win backed Russian hackers, which it code- terviewer that she was willing to use the forhim would mean forAmerica. 7 named Fancy Bear and Cozy Bear, inside words “radical Islamism”. But Mr Trump the network. It says the first group was a was only getting started. Interviewed on tool of Russian military intelligence and Fox News, he hinted that Mr Obama might Watergate II the second, most likely, of Russia’s main be a secret terrorist sympathiser, saying: spy agency, the Federal Security Service. “We’re led by a man that either is not The Donald’s dirty Both groups, which did not appear to be tough, notsmart, orhe’sgotsomethingelse co-operating, had “superb operational train mind”. When the president refuses to linen decraft”, according to CrowdStrike’s chief use the words radical Islamic terrorism, technology officer, Dmitri Alperovitch. “there’s something going on,” he added. The mismatch between the skills of the WASHINGTON, DC Earlier in the week Mr Trump announced best Russian and Chinese state-backed Russian hackers infiltrate the that the Washington Post, whose coverage hackers and the amateurish defences of Democratic Party’s computersystem he dislikes, would henceforth be banned the average American computer network from his campaign events. ONALD TRUMP says he would “get is pitiful. The DNC’s arrangements appear Mr Trump does not just say that the Dalong very well” with Vladimir Putin. to have been especially creaky; last year, a Middle East has been made less stable by He must now be hoping the Russian gov- computer firm hired by the party tempo- the policies of Mr Obama and Mrs Clin- ernment hackers who appear to be in pos- rarily gave Senator Bernie Sanders’s cam- ton—the stuff of everyday politics. In a session of some of his most embarrassing paign team access to the voter records of speech the day after the Orlando killings secrets will reciprocate that good will. his rival, Hillary Clinton, who is now the he charged that Mrs Clinton “wants to al- The Democratic National Committee presumptive Democratic nominee. The low radical Islamic terrorists to pour into (DNC) revealed on June 14th that two DNC has now joined a distinguished list of our country.” Mr Trump claimed that no groups of Russian hackers had infiltrated American organisations embarrassed by systems exist to vet Middle Eastern immi- its computer systems and snooped on its foreign hackers—the White House, the Of- grants. Without caveats, he also cast Mus- communications for almost a year. One fice of Personnel Management, the State lim-Americans as a fifth column, accusing had stolen an “opposition file”, containing Department. them of knowing about bad actors in their research on Mr Trump’svulnerabilities go- The revelation is especially unwelcome midst but failing to report them. “The Mus- ing back many years. Given that Mr Trump for Mrs Clinton—because it also recalls her lims have to work with us…They know has so far been accused, with varying de- own slapdash cyber-security regime. what’s going on,” he growled. grees of certainty, of hiring illegal immi- There is no evidence that the private inter- Afterterrorattacksin California late last grants, paying no tax, driving his business- net server she used as secretary of state, year, Mr Trump floated a Muslim entry es’ suppliers to bankruptcy by not paying which was protected by off-the-shelf anti- ban: a religious exclusion sure to be chal- them, interacting with the mafia and grop- virus software and is being investigated by lenged in the courts. This week he refined ing women, the mind boggles. What was the FBI as a possible security breach, was thatto a ban on immigration from “areasof hacked. Yet an investigation into Mrs Clin- the world where there is a proven history ton’s e-mails revealed a suspicion by State of terrorism” against America or allies, un- Department technicians that hackers had til arrivals can be screened “perfectly”. at least tried to infiltrate it. And the e-mail That drew a counter-blast from Mr account ofa Clinton confidant, Sidney Blu- Obama, who condemned suggestions that menthal, was hacked and e-mails he pur- “entire religious communities are compli- portedly sent to Mrs Clinton made public. cit in violence” and challenging other Re- In a way, the incident is therefore a publicans to say whether they agreed. gauge of the relative strengths of Mr There’s “no magic” to the phrase “radical Trump’s and Mrs Clinton’s candidacies. Islam”, Mr Obama went on, suggesting Mr Trump is soiled and compromised; yet that using those words would make it the millionsofAmericanswho support his harder to recruit Muslim allies. invectives against immigrants and Mus- In a rebuke to Mr Trump, the Republi- lims seem not to mind. Even the prospect can Speaker of the House of Representa- of his grubbier secrets being in the hands tives, Paul Ryan, said that a Muslim ban ofthe Russians therefore seemslessworry- would not be in the national interest. ing than it should. Mrs Clinton is less obvi- Democrats plan to keep putting Republi- ously tainted. Yet she seems incapable, be- cans on the spot. Citing the ease with cause of the furious conviction of her which Mr Mateen bought his weapons, opponents and her own shortcomings as a they have renewed calls for a ban on gun politician, to shake off a popular suspicion purchases by those on FBI terrorist watch- Washington’s most interesting book club that she is. 7 The Economist June 18th 2016 United States 29

Computing boot-camps Risks and rewards

NEW YORK Should for-profit crash courses get federal funds? IBERAL-ARTSdegreesandcomputersav- Lvy rarely sit comfortably together. But computer-programming is increasingly where the jobs are. This logic guided Adam Enbar and Avi Flombaum in 2012 to found Flatiron, one of many coding boot-camps sprinkled across America. The camps offer intensive courses in web development, usually lasting three to six months. They aim to prepare students for software-engineering jobs, while offering career advice and the chance to network: in short, voca- entry-level job. For-profit education companies have a tional school forthe information age. Until now, worries about quality have mixed history in America; they have been They have emerged to fill a pressing de- mattered only to those who can afford known to take federal money while over- mand for coders. Software-engineering boot-camps or can secure private loans to promising, offering sub-standard instruc- jobs will grow at a rate of 18.8% by 2024— attend: tuition fees range from $10,000 to tion and saddling unsuspecting students nearly triple the rate of overall job growth, $20,000. That is about to change. Last year with debt. So far, says Barmak Nassirian of according to the Bureau of Labour Statis- the DepartmentofEducation announced a the American Association of State Col- tics. So boot-camps are multiplying. In 2015 pilot programme to make federal funds leges and Universities, boot-camps have more than16,000 students graduated from available to boot-camps, which are cur- not been proved to do much for low-in- them, a138% increase from the year before, rently unaccredited and whose students come students without a college degree. according to Course Report, an organisa- are therefore ineligible for federal aid. As Mr Nassirian is right. The vast majority tion that tracks the industry. They are also part of the programme, up to ten accredit- of today’s boot-camp students are sophis- bigbusiness: publicly traded for-profit edu- ed colleges will work in partnership with ticated consumers who have gone through cation companies are crowding in. “non-traditional providers”, like boot- college. They view the courses as an ex- Most boot-camp students are between camps, and the quality of the camps will pensive but necessary add-on, and judge 22 and 35 and have a college degree. Some be assessed by a third party. The goal is their quality by how much private invest- have developed an interest in program- both to open the boot-camps to students ment they attract. That is how for-profit mingsince graduation, orsee it as a route to from poorer backgrounds, and to improve education companies should work. To of- higher pay.Sarah Natow,a Harvard gradu- oversight ofthe courses offered. ferthese companies the open spigot of fed- ate, worked in museum fundraising until, Many who follow the education busi- eral funding seems too risky, both for tax- dissatisfied with the non-profit sector, she ness worry about federal involvement. payers and forstudent borrowers. 7 gave up her job and started a course at General Assembly, a boot-camp in New York. She felt she needed “some skill set The manosphere that would give me an entrée into some other area”, and General Assembly offered Balls to all that a fairly quick fix: three months for $13,500, as opposed to hundreds of thousands of dollars fora two-year masters programme. The first job after a boot-camp may not pay that well, explains Natacha Springer, who worked in biotech for ten years, took The rebalancing ofthe sexes has spawned 21st-centurymisogyny time off to bring up children, and then attended Flatiron. But she saw a 40% salary .BRADFORD WILCOX, an academic sacrifice sexual freedom for a wife who increase when she started her second job, W at the University of Virginia who may later divorce you and take your chil- and now works as a software engineer for holds robust views on the benefits of mar- dren and assets? Better to eschew “gyno- a salary in six figures. riage for adults and children, is used to centric” conventions in favour of self- Boot-campsclaim thatover95% ofgrad- sparking debates. But, after publishing a sovereignty, the logic goes. uates find jobs as software engineers; start- video about the economics ofmarriage, he “Save a male and stop a wedding™” is ing salaries, they say, average around was surprised to field criticism online from an unregistered trademark of MGTOW- $65,000. Such claims are seldom indepen- a character called “Turd Flinging Monkey”. .com, one of many websites and blogs that dently verified. As the camps proliferate In his own 15-minute broadcast, the chimp form the manosphere, a diffuse and nebu- and more second-rate schools enter the equated marriage to slavery. TFM, as he’s lous corner of the internet. The groups market, quality may suffer. Critics also ar- sometimes called for short, is a YouTube sometimes overlap and sometimes feud; gue that no crash course can compare with character created by a disciple of the Men their aims range from fighting for fathers’ a computer-science degree. They contend Going Their Own Way movement. An on- rights in family courts, where they believe that three months’ study ofalgorithms and line fraternity, MGTOW believe that mar- men get raw deals, to trading in tips about data structures is barely enough to get an riage fails basic cost-benefit analysis. Why howto seduce women. One keyboard Don1 30 United States The Economist June 18th 2016

2 Juan, Roosh V, has won fame (and ire) for idea of what men could be. This is differ- She gave up her job as a corporate finance publishing books like “Day Bang: How to ent. This is about men feeling as though director in Shenzhen to cook for him in Casually Pickup Girls Duringthe Day” and they’ve lost dominance.” Philadelphia. Through a local church she “Bang Poland: How To Make Love With For his part, Mr Wilcox, the simian pro- met other Chinese tiger mums, most of Polish Girls in Poland”. voker and professor, thinks the movement whom entered with a tourist visa that al- Dedicated members of the manosph- is related to the decline of the traditional lows them to stay up to six months each ere groups tend to see the world as divided family unit. The percentage of Americans time. New Haven, Connecticut now boasts between consumers of blue pills and red over 18 who are married has dropped pre- a “Yale Chinese grandparents’ village”, pills, a concept borrowed from the “Ma- cipitously in the past halfcentury from 72% with 15 residents. The old folk live under trix” films. If Neo, the film’s hero, takes the in 1960 to 50% in 2014. “Family breakdown the same roofas theirgrandchildren, most- blue pill, he will remain blissfully ignorant can be a breeding ground for misogyny,” ly PhD and post-doctoral students at Yale of the powerlessness of humans. Gulping he says. Mr Elam retorts that Mr Wilcox’s who are too busy to take care of their own down the red pill will mean reckoning views are sexist towards men. “Youwould offspring. with the truth and seeing “how deep the never tell a woman to ‘woman up’ and get Although some parents rent, many oth- rabbit hole [went]”. In the manosphere, married if she didn’t want to. But that’s ers decide to buy. These Chinese dads and blue-pill thinkers are those who uncritical- what he’s telling men to do.” 7 mums now make up a majority ofChinese ly accept the idea that society discrimi- buyers in America’s housing market. Last natesagainst women. “Red Pillers”, bycon- year China became the largest source of trast, recognise that it is men who are foreign property investment in America, worse-off. As proof, they point to false rape pouring in $28.6 billion. Roughly 70% ofin- accusations, disparities in the length ofpri- quiries from the Chinese indicated that son sentences—63% longer for men, on av- education was the chief motive, says Mat- erage—and gaps in college enrolment, thew Moore, president of the American di- where women outnumber men by12%. vision ofwww.juwai.com, a Chinese inter- Such grievances led Paul Elam, a 50- national-property website. In Chicago something Texan truck driver, to found estate agents anticipate more Chinese par- AVoiceForMen.com in 2009. The site is ents buying expensive condominiums. In among the most popular in the manosph- Irvine, California, about 70-80% of buyers ere, though Mr Elam objects to this categor- of new-builds are Chinese parents whose isation. “We consistently clash with other children attend, or plan to attend, nearby groups—like pick-up artists—considered colleges, says Peggy Fong Chen, the CEO of part ofthe manosphere,” he explains. ReMax Omega Irvine. Other college towns Mr Elam had his red-pill epiphany after such as Los Angeles, Seattle, Boston and reading“The Myth ofMale Power” byWar- Dallas, see a similar trend. ren Farrell. At the time he was working as a Parents of younger children often ven- substance-abuse counsellor in Houston, ture into smallertowns with good primary Texas. He noticed his colleagues asked ev- and secondary schools. In New Jersey, ery woman who came into the centre towns like Millburn, Westfield and Prince- whether she had suffered harm at the ton have seen prices rising 20-30% higher handsofa significantother, and every man than in other places, partly because of in- whether he had perpetrated such harm. College towns terest from Chinese buyers. “Ifyou want to The questions were never posed the other make money in real estate,” says Steven way round. When Mr Elam inquired why, A roaring trade Lawson, the CEO of Windham Realty he says his male and female colleagues Group, “buy where the Chinese are buy- snapped at him. “The idea of men taking ing, because they perpetuate the price care of themselves frightens people. Peo- increase.” ple have always relied on men to create NEW YORK For the rising middle class in China, safe societies,” Mr Elam says. “When they parking their wealth overseas also makes Chinese tigermums start a college-town say ‘What about me?’ that creates fear. The good business sense. The near-bubble in housing boom impulse is to think ‘Well then, who’s going housing prices at home and the deprecia- to take care ofus?’” VERYONE knows that Chinese students tion ofthe yuan have made them nervous, Interest in such ideas is not robust Eare flooding American campuses. Less so diversification becomes pressing. As enough to make them mainstream, but it is widely known is that their mothers are property prices shoot up in some college too widespread for the manosphere to be coming, too. Last year 394,669 pupils from towns, more Chinese buyers are drawn in, considered just a fringe. The popular Red- China were studying at American univer- says Susan Wachter, a real-estate professor Pill group on Reddit, a platform for online sities, secondary and primary schools, the at the Wharton School ofthe University of discussion groups, has grown from 19 fol- largest contingent of all international stu- Pennsylvania. Ownership, rather than lowers in 2012 to more than 155,000 today. dents. Increasingly their parents are mov- renting, becomes more attractive, because The “Men’s Rights” Reddit group has also ing in with them, buying local properties their children can rent extra bedrooms to seen its subscriber base double to over or investing at least $500,000 in business- classmates to cover utility and tax bills, 100,000 in the same period. es to try to qualify fora green card. while also beingable to benefitfrom future Observers of the manosphere disagree The tiger mums usually come to Ameri- price rises. over exactly what fuels it. Barbara Risman, ca alone, leaving their husbands behind. Some tiger mums also try to help their the head of the sociology department at “When I wasn’t here, my son would sur- children get married by making the down- the University of Illinois at Chicago, attri- vive on instant noodles and energy drinks payment or even meeting the full cost. In butes its rise to a fear that as women be- forseveral days without eating fruit or veg- Chinese culture, owning a property gives a come more liberated, men are struggling etables,” says Wenxue Hu, mother of a sense of security and helps to attract a with feeling dispensable. “Previous men’s masters student studying applied mathe- spouse. For these children, having a tiger movementsdealtwith an expansion ofthe matics at the University of Pennsylvania. mum is good fortune indeed. 7 The Economist June 18th 2016 United States 31

Scandinavian-Americans turn of the 20th century,” says Lennart Pehrson, an expert on Swedish emigration Founding Vikings to America. The new arrivals were hard- working, disciplined and more literate than other immigrant groups. Many worked in construction; it was said that the CHICAGO AND MINNEAPOLIS Swedes built Chicago. Andrew Lanquist, for instance, built two much-loved land- Afterprospering quietly for150 years, Scandinavian-Americans and theirancestral marks: the Wrigley Building on the Chica- lands are more popularthan ever go river and Wrigley Field, the principal N HIS glowing description of bilateral re- are roughly equivalent to the whole popu- baseball park. Ilations between Norway and America, lation of Norway. No country, except Ire- Some ofthe newcomersfrom the North Kare Aas, Norway’s ambassador in Wash- land, lost as high a percentage ofits popula- succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. ington, DC, has only a couple of quibbles. tion to America as Norway. The scope of CharlesWalgreen, the son ofa Swedish im- “Americans don’t recognise that a Norwe- Swedish immigration is similarly vast: be- migrant, set up Walgreen’s, America’s larg- gian discovered America long before Co- tween 1880 and 1920 around 20-25% of the est chain of drugstores. Swedish-born Jo- lumbus,” says Mr Aas. Indeed, almost 500 population left forAmerica. han Nordstrom created Nordstrom, an yearsbefore he leftforthe NewWorld, a Vi- Swedes and Norwegians left their exclusive retail empire. Eric Wickman king ship steered by Leif Eriksson crossed homelands to escape grinding poverty, re- founded Greyhound, America’s biggest the Atlantic and reached North America, strictions on religious freedom and the bus line. Alexander Samuelson, another where the Norsemen remained for one compulsory military draft. Arable land Swedish immigrant, designed the curvy winter. “They should also eat more fish,” was scarce and few other jobs were avail- Coca-Cola bottle. On a gastronomic level, addsMrAas—whose countryisthe world’s able. The mass exodus, the often harrow- much ofthe cinnamon in American baked second-largest exporter ofseafood. ing journeys and tough new beginnings goods can be credited to, or blamed on, Relations between America and the made a deep impression on theircollective Scandinavians. Nordiccountrieshave neverbeen better. In psyche. “Giants in the Earth”, a novel by According to a study from the Institute May,for the first time, Barack Obama host- Ole Edvart Rolvaag, a Norwegian-Ameri- of Economic Affairs, Swedish-Americans ed a Nordic summit in Washington with can, describes Norwegian homesteaders’ are considerably richer than the average the leaders of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, hardscrabble life in today’s South Dakota, American—as are other Scandinavian- Finland and Iceland. Their talks about Rus- and was a great success both in America Americans. The poverty rate ofAmericans sia’s expansionism, the fight against Islam- and back in Norway. A tetralogy by Vil- with Swedish ancestry is only 6.7%, half ic State, climate change and refugees went helm MobergaboutSwedish emigration to the national average. Swedish-Americans so well that, as Mr Obama commented, America is among the bestselling novels in are better off even than their cousins at “There was probably too much agree- Sweden. Former members of Abba, Swe- home: their average income is 50% higher ment.” The lovefest was mutual: the Nor- den’s foremost pop troubadours, based than theirs, a number used by opponents dics were delighted by their welcome at “Kristina fran Duvemala”, a symphonicex- of the Swedish model as an argument the White House. travaganza, on his novels. against the shackles ofbig government. Scandinavia is popular even in the Most Scandinavian immigrants man- Their success in America seems solidly campaign for the presidency. Bernie Sand- aged to build betterlivesasfarmers, mostly grounded in old national virtues. They ers, the self-proclaimed democratic social- in the upper Midwest, where the land- have more trust in each other and in gov- ist who challenged Hillary Clinton for the scape and climate resembled home, as ernment; they tend to obey rules (leading Democratic nomination, said in the first fishermen on the north-west coast or with to many jokes about “squareheads” and primary debate last October that America jobs in rapidly industrialising cities. Chica- “dumb blondes”). The Protestant worketh- should lookto Denmark, Sweden and Nor- go was an especially popular destination ic is strong: in Minneapolis in particular, way “and learn from what they have ac- for Swedes. “Chicago was the second-larg- the number of Lutheran churches is strik- complished for their working people.” est Swedish city after Stockholm at the ing. Scandinavian-Americans also display (Mrs Clinton replied that she loved Den- a keen civic sense, whether in shovelling mark, but “Weare not Denmark.”) snow or helping elderly neighbours, from Bjorn Lyrvall, Sweden’s ambassador, which everyone benefits. says he is flattered by the attention, but There have been ups and downs in dip- some Scandinavians are slightly irritated lomatic relations over the years; but Rus- by Mr Sanders’s praise. According to Dan- sian expansionism is now bringing Ameri- iel Schatz, a visiting fellow at Columbia ca’s security policy closer to the Nordics, University,his country’s economic success even though Sweden and Finland are not is due to its sound institutions and social members of NATO and, at least in theory, cohesion, rather than the welfare state so are non-aligned. On June 8th Ash Carter, admired by Mr Sanders. During the hey- America’s defence secretary, and his Swed- day of Swedish socialism and big govern- ish counterpart, Peter Hultqvist, promised ment, Sweden’s economic growth actually to co-operate more closely in a statement fell from second in the world in 1970 to the ofintent signed in Washington. second-lowest in the OECD in 1990. The If Mrs Clinton wins in November, the country recovered only after it decentral- honeymoon between America and the ised, deregulated itseconomyand lowered Nordics is likely to continue. Under Do- its punishing tax rates. nald Trump, the Republican nominee for More than11m Americans claim to have the presidency, relations would probably Scandinavian ancestry. This pales against sour: even though Mr Trump used to pre- the 46m who say they have German roots tend his ancestors were Swedish, rather or the 33m who trace their ancestry to Ire- than German, because he thoughtitwould land, but the 5m Norwegian-Americans Honey, I’m home make him more popular. 7 32 United States The Economist June 18th 2016 Lexington How others do it

Radicalisation is a problem fartoo complexforsimplistic Trumpian solutions muscular law and order would not have deterred the killer. The court heard that he hoped to die in a gun battle with police, and would have begged for the death penalty if the Netherlands had it. Some on the left blame poverty and Western racism for extremism. In fact Mr Bouyeri once looked like an integration success story: he had helped to run a community centre, before quitting because men and women mixed there, and had even been consulted by officials about improving relations with the police. His radicalisation was his own work, accelerated by worshipping at a mosque favoured by extremists. Belgium’s model has for too long been non-benign neglect. Squabbling local, regional and federal governments ignored radical imams trained and funded from abroad, and allowed extremists to operate in plain sight. Bids to then impose secularism by fiat had unintended consequences. In 2009 the Dutch-speaking region ofFlanders banned religious symbols, including headscarves, in hundreds of schools. A headmistress from the port city of Antwerp expressed relief at the ruling. Her school was eager to accommodate Muslim students. It was one ofthe last in the city to ban headscarves. Alas, that position attracted the most conservative Muslim familiesto cluster there, creating an oppres- ISTRUST anyone suggesting simple ways to prevent radical sive atmosphere as older brothers policed their sisters’ modesty. DIslamists from gaining recruits in an open society. For, like all Young, moderate Muslims fretted that banning headscarves extreme belief-systems, radical Islamism confronts pluralists would make it harder for girls from conservative families to be with a paradox—namely, how do liberal, tolerant majorities pro- “emancipated” through education in mainstream schools. tect their values while defending the rights ofless tolerant minor- France’s model promotes a secular, collective national identi- ities, or fractions ofminorities? ty, backed by draconian powers for counter-terror spooks, police Yearsofreportingon fourcontinentsleadsLexington to a prac- and judges. President François Hollande says France is “at war” tical observation: no single approach has a perfect record of pre- since terror attacks in Paris last year, deploying 10,000 troops on venting radicalisation, and every silver-bullet idea has been tried the streets. Yet the economy is divided between insiders and out- somewhere, usually more than once. It is understandable that siders; immigrant-heavysuburbsseethe with distrustof the state. violentattacksbyfanaticsalarm people who live in diverse, open Britain’s model involves muddling around such questions as societies. But in recent years many Western countries have headscarves in schools, spasms of alarm that multiculturalism learned a lot about thwarting terror attacks, often through bitter undermines British values, and trust in high-quality police and experience. Radicalisation within Muslim communities is a dif- intelligence services. Still, an interview in 2004 with a remark- ferent though related problem. It is both rarer than demagogic able FBI special agent, born in London to a Pakistani Muslim fam- politicians claim, and harder to prevent than they pretend. ily that later emigrated to Chicago, offered a warning against Brit- Apostingin China offered a glimpse ofa model based on iron- ish complacency. A counter-terrorism specialist, she found fisted repression—a situation complicated by the fact that the extremism’s grip tighter in Britain than in America, with young Muslim religion and ethnic identities often overlap, notably Britons “a little vengeful…more anti-Western” than Americans. among the Uighur minority in China’s far west. The country has mostly avoided spectacular terrorist attacks, but it is a brutally se- Anti-Muslim, anti-American cured, unhappy peace. History helps to explain rates of radicalisation. It matters how More pluralistic models were on view during years reporting Muslim immigrants arrived: some European governments re- in Europe. Some conservatives, especially in America, portray cruited guest-workers en masse from specific source-countries to the continent as too decadent and enfeebled to defend itself staffparticular industries, creating jobless ghettos when those in- against a stealthy Islamic conquest, growling that it has become dustries collapsed. This was not the case in America, whose Mus- “Eurabia”. That is a gross exaggeration. Proud Dutch assumptions lims made their own way and arrived mostly well-educated and about their melting-pot, rather American model—multicultural- ready to flourish. The country is fortunate that its 3.3m Muslims ism with invisible partitions—were certainly shaken by the mur- are notably diverse and integrated. In surveys they stand out for derin 2004 ofTheo van Gogh, the flamboyant maker of“Submis- rejecting extremism by much larger margins than most Muslim sion”, a film accusing Islam of sanctioning violence against publics around the world. women, by Mohammed Bouyeri, a youngMoroccan-Dutch man. Such details leave the presumptive Republican presidential Mr van Gogh was shot as he cycled to work, then had his throat nominee, Donald Trump, unmoved. He claims, falsely, that “no slit as he begged formercy. system” currently exists to vet Muslim immigrants from the Mid- Covering the murder trial in 2005 offered scenes resembling a dle East, or to prevent them “trying to take over our children”. Mr parody of European softness, as when two policemen appeared Trump isnot puzzling out how to make diversity workor to coun- in court to ask for €3,000 ($3,360) to compensate them for emo- ter radicalisation. He is pretending that the non-Muslim majority tional distress suffered when shot at by the killer: at their testimo- can be rid of a minority that alarms them. To be clear: that is an ny Mr Bouyeri rolled his eyes in amusement. But in truth more un-American rejection ofpluralism, not a bid to make it work. 7 DOLLARS INIT. A FEW BILLION WHEN IT’S GOT YOUR WALLET. 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Also in this section 35 Bello: The Venezuela test 36 Gay-bashing in the Caribbean 36 Poverty in Latin America

Criminal justice in Mexico ofa more transparent “adversarial” model, where lawyers argue their cases orally be- Trials and errors fore a judge. It establishes basic rights for defendants, like the presumption of innocence and the provision of a lawyer, and excludes confessions from court unless a defence attorney was present when they MEXICO CITY were given. It allows alternative approaches to justice, such as mediation, for less se- The right reform has been introduced, but perfecting it could take years rious cases. And it fights corruption by re- N 2005 José Antonio Zúñiga, a Mexican around 95% of criminal verdicts in Mexico quiring the involvement of three separate Istreet vendor of computer services, was have been convictions. And 90% of those judges: one to ensure the rights of the ac- sentenced to 20 years in prison formurder. have been based on confessions, which cused are observed before the trial, anoth- His conviction relied on the account of a police have a nasty habit of beating out of er to preside in court and a third to guaran- lone witness, who did not mention Mr Zú- prisoners. A study of 80 suspects arrested tee the sentence is carried out correctly. ñiga until his third statement to police. in connection with the killing of43 student The policy has been a long time com- Otherstallholderssaid he wasatwork dur- teachers in September 2014 alleged that 17 ing. It became law in June 2008. When Mr ing the murder. The court excluded state- had been tortured. Separately, three police Calderón left office in 2012, just under 30% mentssupportinghim, and ignored contra- officers and two soldiers are facing torture of Mexicans lived in areas covered by the dictions in the prosecution’s case and a test charges after an online video showed a fe- new rules. His successor, the centrist En- that showed he had not fired the gun. male suspect being asphyxiated with a rique Peña Nieto, belongs to a different po- Mr Zúñiga had the good fortune to have plastic bag. Security experts generally say litical party, but has proved an eager re- two campaigning lawyers take on his case, that only by safeguarding defendants’ former. In addition to passing economic who succeeded in overturning the verdict. rights and building public trust in the jus- liberalisation that Mr Calderón supported In 2011 his story was featured in a docu- tice system can the state hope to amass the but could not get through Congress, he in- mentary, “Presumed Guilty”. But he is a evidence necessary to capture and convict creased federal transfers to the states to rare exception amongthe wrongly convict- the real culprits and deter organised crime. speed up the justice reform, and intro- ed in Mexico. Overall, says an attorney in duced a national penal code to ensure the the film, “from the moment they accuse A very long goodbye uniform application ofcriminal law across someone, the prosecution has won.” Felipe Calderón, Mexico’s conservative the country. By June 7th 93% of Mexicans The message of “Presumed Guilty” president from 2006 to 2012, is best known lived in regions where the new model has would surprise most foreign observers of for deploying the country’s army against taken effect; the government says that fig- Mexico’s drug war. The popular percep- its drug gangs. But he simultaneously took ure will reach 100% by June 18th. tion is that the country’s courts fail to con- these arguments to heart by launching a Evidence from states that have institut- vict enough people. Around three-quar- root-and-branch transformation of its ed the changes is encouraging. In particu- ters of murders go unsolved, and the courts, which is scheduled to be fully im- lar, they seem to have streamlined the judi- public has grown inured to the spectacle of plemented by June 18th. Miguel Ángel cial process: the average time to resolve a masked soldiersparadingrecentlyarrested Osorio Chong, the interior minister, has case has dropped from 180 days to 34. In “traffickers” or “hit men” before the cam- declared it bids “goodbye to impunity”. Mexico City, prison overcrowding fell by eras, only to see them released days later. The new system scraps the “inquisitori- 70% in the system’s first four months, But a hidden consequence ofletting the al” approach, in which a prosecutor pre- mainlybecause manytypesofcrime could guilty go free is that innocent people are of- sents written evidence that the defence be dealt with through mediation rather ten punished in their stead. Historically has little opportunity to contest, in favour than by the courts. And three ofthe earlier-1 The Economist June 18th 2016 The Americas 35

2 adopting states, Baja California, Morelos on its own: security in Morelos, one of the have to adjust them to comply with new and Nuevo León, have reduced the share first to set it up, has been deteriorating. The national standards. In some places the two ofdefendants put in pre-trial custody—and emphasis on challenging evidence in court systems will run in parallel, since crimes thus housed next to convicted crimi- means that police officers will have to get committed before the launch of the re- nals—by around 20 percentage points. better at protecting a crime scene and pre- forms will still be tried the old way. CIDAC, About 40% of Mexico’s total prison popu- venting contamination. Corrupt officers a think-tank, predicts it will take 11years for lation is awaiting trial, and the new avail- will gain a new means of sabotaging legal the new model to operate effectively. ability of different bail measures (such as proceedings, by mishandling evidence Yet despite such growing pains, there is periodic reporting) and a presumption of and claiming it was a mistake. wide consensus that the reformsare neces- innocence should grant many of them at Moreover, the roll-out has been patchy. sary if not sufficient to establish the rule of least temporary freedom. Chihuahua, in the north, instituted its own law in every cornerofMexico. Theirimple- Nonetheless, Mr Peña will need to keep reform in 2007, before the policy was mentation, says David Shirk of the Univer- expectations in check now that the adver- adopted nationwide, whereas Sonora, its sity of San Diego, represents a “milestone sarial approach is in place. Even if imple- neighbour, only did so recently. Many in the marathon to a better criminal-justice mented perfectly, it will not reduce crime states that developed their own codes will system”. That is reason forhope. 7 Bello The Venezuela test

Why Latin American governments refuse to stickup fordemocracy S THE police in Venezuela shoot hun- invoked the democracy clauses in their Agry looters, the Organisation of various regional agreements only when American States (OAS) dithers. The left-wing presidents of small countries world’s oldest regional body, based in a (Honduras and Paraguay) were pushed grand mansion a few blocks from the out. The region’s culture of presidential- White House, is supposed to uphold de- ism makes them reluctant to punish an mocracy in the Americas. Back in 2001 it elected leader, however dictatorial. adopted a high-flown Democratic Char- Second, Latin American diplomats ter, committing the 34 active member worry that suspending Venezuela from states to representative government, and the OAS would not restore democracy. declaring that any country where the “Theythinkthatpowerin Caracasstill lies democratic order is interrrupted or al- with the regime,” says Matias Spektor, a tered could be suspended from the body. professor ofinternational relations in São The aim was to prevent not only a rep- Paulo. Polls show that Mr Maduro has the etition of Latin America’s military dicta- support of only a quarter of Venezuelans, torships of the 1970s and 1980s but also but he has the backing of the army. Politi- the 1992 “self-coup” byAlberto Fujimori, a cal changes in the region mean that Mr Peruvian president, who shut down his homework? Maduro has fewer allies. But he knows country’s Congress. This week the OAS’s At the instigation of Argentina, the ini- that Barack Obama is on the way out in General Assembly convened in the Do- tial response of the OAS’s permanent the United States and that Brazil’s interim minican Republic facing a “self-coup” in council was a declaration backing talks be- government is weak. Venezuela. But forvarious reasons, the as- tween the government and the opposition Third, much of South America is am- sembled foreign ministers’ resolve to ap- organised by a clutch of ex-presidents. bivalent about the OAS itself, seeing it as a ply their charter is about as stiff as a piña Though an excellent idea in principle, it cold-war anachronism. The organisation colada without the rum. came as no surprise to observers ofMr Ma- nowsharesthe diplomaticstage with oth- Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s leftist duro, whose aim is to buy time, that this is er regional bodies that exclude the United president, has neutered the opposition- going nowhere. That, too, may be the fate States and Canada. Even so, suspension controlled National Assembly and locked of bilateral talks agreed in Santo Domingo from the OAS would matter to Mr Madu- up scores of political prisoners. He flatly by John Kerry, the United States’ secretary ro. Himself a former foreign minister, he refuses to allow a recall referendum ofstate, and his Venezuelan counterpart. has been lobbying hard to prevent this against him this year, as the opposition Argentina has back-pedalled. Last year outcome, says Michael Shifterofthe Inter- demands and the constitution allows. the country’s new liberal president, Maur- American Dialogue, a think-tankin Wash- (His electoral commission has disallowed icio Macri, called for Venezuela’s suspen- ington, DC. more than 1m voters’ signatures support- sion from Mercosur, a trade group, for vio- The OAS will decide on June 23rd ing one.) Food riots and looting are now lating its democracy clause. But Susana whether to sustain Mr Almagro’s initia- almost daily events in Venezuela, thanks Malcorra, Mr Macri’s foreign minister, is a tive. He looks likely to fall short of the 18 to the government’s mismanagement. candidate for secretary-general of the UN. votes he needs. Even Mr Kerry said he All this prompted Luis Almagro, the Venezuela is currently a non-permanent would not support Venezuela’s suspen- OAS’s secretary-general, to invoke the member of the Security Council and, her sion. The hope is that Mr Almagro’s pro- Democratic Charter last month as he critics say, she doesn’t want to offend it. posal will force MrMaduro into a real dia- called for a meeting that could lead to Yet the reasons for caution, from Argen- logue, one based on respecting his own Venezuela’s suspension. A former foreign tina and others, go deeper. Latin Ameri- constitution. If not, the OAS will merely minister of Uruguay and himself a left- cans are allergic to intervening in each oth- have demonstrated that Latin America’s winger, Mr Almagro has become a vocal er’s internal affairs, partly because the commitment to collective action to up- critic of Mr Maduro. But has he done his United States did so in the past. They have hold democracy is a dead letter. 36 The Americas The Economist June 18th 2016

Gay rights in the Caribbean president blocked it. In a referendum on Poverty in Latin America June 7th in the Bahamas, voters refused to Not everyone’s ban discrimination by sex. Even though Don’t look down the proposal did not mention homosex- island paradise uality,the “no” side, backed by fundamentalist Christians, warned that it might pave PORT OF SPAIN the way for gay marriage, and seems to have been widely believed. Caribbean Discriminatory laws have proved hard Escaping poverty was easy enough. governments have sought to block region- to repeal Staying out ofit looks harder wide effortsto protectsexual minorities. At RAINBOW flag flew at half-mast along- a meetingofthe Organisation ofAmerican N THE first decade of the new millenni- Aside the Stars and Stripes on June 13th States from June 13th to 15th, Jamaica and Ium Latin America grew more equal. A re- at the American embassy in Kingston, Ja- Barbados formally objected to the gay- port on poverty published on June 14th by maica. It honoured the 49 people killed the rights chunkofa human-rights resolution. the United Nations Development Pro- day before in a gay club in Orlando. Mar- Frustrated at the ballot box, reformers gramme found that between 2003 and lene Malahoo Forte, the island’s attorney- have also been foiled in the courts. Beliz- 2013 nearly half the region’s population general, took issue with the gesture. The ean judges have yet to rule on a case they moved up the income ladder, and one in rainbow banner was “disrespectful of Ja- heard in 2013 seeking to overturn anti-gay five joined the middle class, defined as maica’s laws”, she tweeted. laws. And on June 10th the Caribbean having between $10 and $50 a day of pur- Gay male sex in Jamaica carries a ten- Court ofJustice decided that bans on travel chasing power. Conversely, only 1% year prison sentence, though the country by gays can stay in place because they are dropped into a lower group, and the share graciously tolerates rainbow flags. The em- not enforced. Ms Malahoo Forte’s own de- ofpeople livingon less than $2.50 a day fell bassy tweeted back: “We’re listening. Ex- partment is now preparing to fend off a by half, to 11.5%. As a result, Latin America’s plain the legal reasoning? It was an attack challenge to Jamaica’s homophobic laws. Gini coefficient, which runs from zero of terror !!and!! hate.” Ms Malahoo Forte The political power of Caribbean (where everyone earns the same) to one later said she had been “misconstrued”. churches frustrates gay-rights activists. (where a single fat cat gets all the cash), de- But the incident drew attention to Victor- Fundamentalist Protestants are well-or- clined from 0.55 in 1994 to 0.49 in 2013. ian sexual laws in a region that lures tour- ganised and sometimes publicly subsi- Unfortunately, the end of the global ists with a free-and-easy image—and to the dised. Politicians fear they can muster commodity boom has spelled the end of failure ofattempts to change them. votes that can swing first-past-the-post Latin America’s long growth spurt. In Organised religion has historically elections in small countries. 2014-15, GDP increased by just 0.6% annual- played a much larger role in Catholic Latin Their distaste for homosexuals is widely. As a result, the gains achieved by the re- America than in the English-speaking Ca- ly shared. Following the recent murders in gion’s lower classes now look precarious. ribbean. But the islands are far less gay- Montego Bay, one resident told a local In the past, a bit over 10% of people just friendly.Trinidad & Tobago and Belize pro- newspaper that “we are really not into the above the poverty line have wound up hibit homosexuals from crossing their bor- fish [gay] thing around here...nobody [is] falling beneath it. If the same proportion ders (though they seldom check). Eleven crying about it.” Catchy, gay-bashing slide backin the coming years, more than a countries in the region ban gay sex, and at- dance-hall tunes—like Sizzla’s “To the third of those who escaped poverty in the tacks on gay people often go unpunished. Point”, which declares “sodomite and bat- past decade will relinquish their progress. Last month two gay men were shot dead at ty boy me say a death fi dem”—have van- The report’s central message is that home in Jamaica’s tourist capital, Montego ished from the radio, butremain popular at without robust economic growth, the poli- Bay. And three years ago Dwayne Jones, a parties. Farfrom seeking to thwart the pop- cies that helped reduce poverty (such as teenager, was killed by a mob in the same ular will, Andrew Holness, Jamaica’s conditional cash transfers, which give fam- city for wearing women’s clothes to a prime minister,has called fora referendum ilies money for vaccinating children and party. No witnesses have come forward, to validate its discriminatory laws. One sending them to school) may not be and there have been no arrests. 2014 poll found that91% ofrespondentsop- enough to keep theirbeneficiaries from be- Politicians in many countries admit in posed repeal. coming poor again. It lists four factors that private that these laws are antiquated, and On June 23rd Bermuda, a British over- prevent downward mobility. Not all jobs thatopennessisneeded to fightHIV. But ef- seas territory, will vote on whether to al- are created equal: formal employment forts to modernise them have flopped. In lowcivil unions, gaymarriage orneither of with benefits and severance provides a 2001 Guyana’s legislature passed a consti- the two. With the Orlando attack fresh in better cushion than piecemeal gigs. Own- tutional amendment banning discrimina- their minds, there is hope that islanders ingassets, such as a carorhouse, is another tion based on sexual orientation, but the may buckthe regional trend. 7 buffer. Help with caring for children and old people is essential, whether by friends, 500 km family or the state. And formal safety nets, BERMUDA (1,300km) like pensions and unemployment insur- ANTIGUA & BARBUDA ance, do their jobs as advertised. BELIZE Such counsel would have been even JAMAICA ST KITTS & NEVIS DOMINICA ST LUCIA more useful in 2006, when the region en- BARBADOS joyed windfall tax revenues. Today, these Caribbean ST VINCENT & THE indicators look troubling. Most workers Sea GRENADINES GRENADA ATLANTIC are either self-employed or in businesses TRINIDAD & TOBAGO OCEAN with fewer than five staff. Nearly half of this group has no job-based pension. Just PACIFIC VENEZUELA GUYANA 12.5% ofpeople in the region’sbottom three OCEAN wealth quintiles own a car. Without these COLOMBIA Source: ILGA safeguards, poverty reduction in Latin LGBT rights, selected Same-sex sexual activity banned Same-sex marriage/ Known arrests for same-sex America could prove as fleeting as the countries, 2016 Male Female unions banned sexual activity in past three years commodity boom that made it possible. 7 Asia The Economist June 18th 2016 37

Also in this section 38 The wrong ink in India 40 Politics in Papua New Guinea 40 A spending scandal in Tokyo 41 An insurgent in Australia 42 Banyan: EU and whose army?

For daily analysis and debate on Asia, visit Economist.com/asia

Mass arrests in Bangladesh Buddhist monk was hacked to death in the country’s south-east. But in private, senior Round up the usual suspects police officers complain that mass arrests are no substitute for proper investigation. Of the thousands arrested, only a few hundred at most are believed to be members of militant groups. Few high-ranking figuresfrom Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangla- desh or Ansarullah Bangla Team—the two A spate ofassassinations provokes a heavy-handed response outfits that have claimed most of the mur- VER the past three years, Islamist ter- Some believe Sheikh Hasina ordered ders—have been arrested. Perhaps the po- Ororists have killed more than 40 peo- the arrests to please foreign governments lice do not know who the leaders are, or ple in Bangladesh, usually by hacking that have complained about Bangladesh’s where they are hiding. But some Bangla- them to death with machetes. The victims reluctance to pursue the assassins. Still oth- deshis speculate that they are deliberately had offended their murderers by being gay, ers see the arrests as a sop to the police, leaving them alone. Hefazat-e-Islam, a fun- non-Muslim or critical of Islamist parties. who have been given a lucrative opportu- damentalist group, has staged huge rallies The government has done shamefully lit- nity: the average bribe to spring someone calling for the murder of atheist bloggers. tle to end the carnage. after an arrest is between 8,000 and One of its followers was arrested for the However, a recent murder seems to 20,000 taka ($102-255), while up to 100,000 killing of one such blogger, Washiqur Rah- have shocked itinto action. On June 5th the taka can be extracted from a Jamaat activ- man. Yet Mufti Fayezullah, a Hefazat wife of a police officer investigating a mili- ist. The average policeman’s salary is just leader, says its activists were not targeted in tant group was hacked and shot dead in $250 a month. the crackdown. front ofher six-year-old son. Five days later Nobody seriously suggests that the gov- Sheikh Hasina, the prime minister, prom- Sticking to the script ernment is in league with the terrorists. But ised to catch “each and everykiller” and ac- The arrests are politically convenient. BNP it has been slow to deal with the threat, cused the main opposition party, the Ban- members say that this week’s dragnet long denying that al-Qaeda and Islamic gladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and its caught more than 2,100 of its activists. The State were active in Bangladesh, even as Islamist ally, Jamaat-e-Islami, oforchestrat- ongoing trial on corruption charges of the followers ofboth groups claimed credit for ing the murders. A wave of arrests fol- party leader, Khaleda Zia, who has twice murders. Instead, the government has lowed. By the time The Economist went to served as prime minister, has left the BNP blamed the opposition party. press more than 11,000 people had been reeling. Many believe the government The ruling party, the Awami League, rounded up. wanted to scoop up whatwasleftofthe en- has allowed its own religious wing, the In Dhaka theories about the “real rea- feebled opposition before a verdict in Mrs Olema League, to grow ever bolder. Earlier son” the government sprang into action Zia’s trial, expected in the coming months. this year, with Hefazat, it campaigned to abound. Some cite self-preservation: in Most expect her to be convicted and possi- defeata petition callingforthe removal ofa May anonymous jihadists published a hit bly jailed; many are furious. constitutional provision recognising Islam list that included not just secular bloggers A Bangladeshi official says the rising as the state religion. The challenge took 28 and Hindu intellectuals but also the state death toll and broadening range of targets yearsto wend itswaythrough the legal sys- telecoms minister and one of Sheikh Ha- made the crackdown “an absolute necessi- tem; the country’shighestcourtspentall of sina’s closest aides, whose close ties to In- ty”. On June 7th a Hindu priest was found two minutes dismissing it. Doubtless the dia led militants to brand him the “anti-Is- dead, nearly beheaded, in south-western judges did so for sound legal reasons, but lam adviser”. Bangladesh, just weeks after an elderly had they come to a different decision, they1 38 Asia The Economist June 18th 2016

2 might have been murdered. their own strongmen as state representa- Zillur Rahman, an academic in Dhaka, Slow down tives. Manmohan Singh, a former prime says that the Awami League “wants to be Bills introduced and passed in India’s parliament minister from the western state of Punjab, seen as a champion of secularism and a Bills has since 1991“represented” the north-east- protector ofIslam”. It should be possible to of which: pending from previous Lok Sabha ern state ofAssam. be both. On June 14th around 100,000 0 50 100 150 200 250 Parties are also understandably tempt- 14th Lok Muslim clerics in Bangladesh issued a Sabha Introduced ed to field wealthy donors as candidates. fatwa (Islamic religious edict) ruling the (2004-09) Passed As a result the Rajya Sabha has become murder of “non-Muslims, minorities and 15th Lok something of a rich man’s club: a 2013 sur- secular activists…forbidden in Islam”. Yet Sabha Introduced vey of members’ declared assets found still the government is reluctant to speak (2009-14) Passed they averaged $3m, in a country where the up forsecularism and tolerance. 16th Lok Introduced average annual per capita GDP is $1,581. India, which almost completely sur- Sabha Despite their bitter rivalry, both Con- (2014-) Passed rounds Bangladesh, will be watching with gress and the BJP supported the Rajya Source: India Today great interest what happens next. Its bor- Sabha membership of Vijay Mallya, a beer der with Bangladesh has traditionally and airline magnate whose flamboyant been as calm as its border with Pakistan is Elections closed with a whiff of skul- lifestyle caused him to be dubbed “The restive. It fears instability and radicalism duggery in Haryana, a state adjacent to the King of Good Times”. Elected in 2002, Mr on both sides. capital, Delhi. Two of its five seats were in Mallya conveniently served in committees India’s government is also concerned play. The first was a shoo-in for a candidate on commerce and aviation until forced to for the safety ofBangladesh’s Hindu popu- from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party resign from the legislature in May this year, lation, which has declined markedly in re- (BJP), which also governs Haryana. The followinghis sudden departure to London. cent years. Many have fled across the bor- second seat seemed sure to go to R.K. Banks claim he owes them more than $1 der; India has vowed to make it easier for Anand, a lawyer with the backing of both billion; India’s attorney-general has called them to claim citizenship. More may fol- a strong local party and Congress, the na- him a “fugitive from justice”. Mr Mallya low.Five days into the crackdown, a Hindu tional rival to the BJP. Yet because of an says he plans to remain in “forced exile” in college teacher in a town near Dhaka an- odd procedural error it went instead to Britain. swered the door at his home and was Subhash Chandra, a media mogul rated by As expected, this year’s election pro- hacked nearly to death by three men with Forbes magazine as India’s 15th-richest duced a slight increase in upper-house machetes. 7 man. He happens also to be a strong sup- seats for the BJP and a slight loss to Con- porter ofthe BJP. gress, with the balance held by regional Mr Chandra was lucky indeed. Voting parties. At this rate, Mr Modi’s ambition to Indian elections rules for the Rajya Sabha require state as- control both legislative houses will not sembly members to vote in turn, filling out soon be achieved—certainly not before In- The wrong ink ballots with a particular kind of pen and dia’s next general election in 2019. It may ink. For some reason no fewer than 13 Con- be no bad thing that India’s constitutional gress party members in the 90-seat Harya- system puts brakes on such ambitions. But na assembly used a single pen with the without some reform of the Rajya Sabha DELHI wrong ink, rendering their votes invalid. India risks what Baijayant “Jay” Panda, an The unfortunate Mr Anand contends that MP, calls “a logjam of far too many checks What upper-house elections say about someone switched the pen in the balloting and not enough balance.” 7 Indian democracy booth, causing him to lose. OR a country that votes as often and Both the cash-for-votes sting and the Fnoisily as India, elections to the Rajya iffy ink point to wider problems with the Sabha, its upper house of parliament, are Rajya Sabha. India’s upper house is a pow- oddly staid. The body’s 245 members are erful body. Even a prime minister as strong not elected all at once to their six-year as Narendra Modi, who holds solid control terms. Instead, each state renews one-third of the Lok Sabha (lower house) has been of its senators (whose total number de- unable to pass a goods-and-services tax, pends on the state’s population) every two which economists see as crucial to India’s years. And they are not elected by the pub- fiscal health. The slow pace of change in lic but indirectly by state assemblies, using the composition ofthe Rajya Sabha means a system so bafflingly complexthat in prac- that Congress, despite its waning influence tice parties often avoid a vote by agreeing nationally, can still block the tax in the up- among themselves how to apportion per house, just as Mr Modi’s party blocked seats. In the election that ended on June it when Congress was in power. India’s 11th, 30 of the 57 contested slots were filled parliamentunderMrModi, who came into this way. office in 2014, has introduced and passed Even so, Rajya Sabha polls are seldom far fewer bills than the previous two (see devoid of drama. If parties fail to make chart). The biggest impediment has been deals, or if their members rebel, the results the Rajya Sabha. can be unpredictable. This election season The Rajya Sabha was intended, like began with a scandal in the southern state America’s Senate, to represent the interest of Karnataka. Posing as aides to a candi- of states (its name means “states council” date, journalists secretly filmed four state in Hindi). Following a 2006 Supreme assembly members demanding bribes of Courtruling, however, its members no lon- up to 100m rupees (around $1.5m) each in ger need to show ties to the states they os- exchange for supporting him. Those depu- tensibly represent. Instead, national parties are now under investigation. ties such as Congress and the BJP place The Barbarian Empires of the Steppes TIME ED O T FF I E Taught by Professor Kenneth W. Harl IM R TULANE UNIVERSITY L 70% LECTURE TITLES 1. Steppes and Peoples off 2. The Rise of the Steppe Nomads O 7 2 3. 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Pax Mongolica and Cultural Exchange Meet History’s Most 33. Conversion and Assimilation 34. Tamerlane, Prince of Destruction 35. Bābur and Mughal India Fearsome Leaders 36. Legacy of the Steppes Attila the Hun and Genghis Khan loom large in the popular The Barbarian Empires of the Steppes consciousness as two of history’s most fearsome warrior-leaders. Course no. 3830 | 36 lectures (30 minutes/lecture) Yet few people are aware of their place in a succession of nomadic warriors who emerged from the Eurasian steppes to seize control of civilizations. SAVE UP TO $275 In the 36 gripping lectures of The Barbarian Empires of the Steppes, award-winning Professor Kenneth W. 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sued for Mr O’Neill and his finance minister, James Marape. The prime minister responded by disbanding Taskforce Sweep and firing his attorney-general. When the courts resurrected the body Mr O’Neill simply cut its funding. In July 2015 an anti- corruption unit within the police force brought fresh charges against Gari Baki and Ano Pala, respectively the new police commissioner and attorney-general, alleging that they conspired with Mr O’Neill to scupper the Paraka investigations. Neither has been convicted. In 2008 PNG’s ombudsman looked into how Mr O’Neill’s predecessor, Sir Michael Somare, had acquired a large apartment and a beach house in the Australian state of Queensland. In 2011 he was suspended from office for failing to submit required financial statements. Since Mr Somare’s time the stakes have grown. The past decade’s commodity boom poured rivers ofextra cash into public coffers. Lower oil and gas prices since 2014 have squeezed budgets just as the government was ramping up infrastructure Politics in Papua New Guinea spending, leading to severe cuts to health A spending scandal in Tokyo and education. Meanwhile, politicians University have grown more adroit at using state insti- Another one bites tutions to quash investigations into their challenge alleged misconduct. Incumbency confers the dust big advantages. The fear is that some politi- WELLINGTON cians may steal and take kickbacks not TOKYO only to enrich themselves but also to buy As student protests spread, a defiant A row overpublic funds topples Tokyo’s protection and win elections. prime ministerdigs in governor The students’ demands that the prime ORRUPTION scandals are a familiar minister step down came just weeks be- N ITALIAN meal costing ¥80,000 C story in Papua New Guinea (PNG), a fore the last date when Mr O’Neill’s gov- A($752). Mystery novels, comic books, remote, mountainous country of7.7m with ernment can be dislodged in a no-confi- Chinese silk shirts and a holiday for his an economy that depends on mineral re- dence vote before the next election. Mr family. Antique art. The most expensive sourcesand logging. One led to the suspen- O’Neill has easily defeated no-confidence suite at the five-star Conrad London St sion of the previous prime minister. An- challenges before, but this time his reputa- James hotel. These were some of the uses other threatens the current one, Peter tion is less shiny and his supporters may to which Yoichi Masuzoe put public funds O’Neill. On June 8th police opened fire on be less loyal. when he was governor ofTokyo. unarmed University of Papua New Guin- Claiming that the protests were stirred At first Mr Masuzoe tried to apologise ea students protesting against Mr O’Neill’s up by “outside agitators”, Mr O’Neill ad- his way out of a scandal that gripped the refusal to present himself for questioning journed parliament until August 2nd— city forweeks and filled the galleries ofthe on corruption charges. Dozens were in- after the no-confidence risk passes. No Metropolitan Assembly, the city’s parlia- jured, though none were killed. doubt it seemed a shrewd move. But if Mr ment, with annoyed Tokyoites. The spend- Protests soon spread from Port Mores- O’Neill’s critics cannot make themselves ing was not illegal, but a looming no-confi- by, the capital, across the country, and heard in parliament, they may do so on the dence motion in the Diet and warnings show no signs of abating. Clashes have left streets. 7 that he could hurt the Liberal Democratic students hospitalised in Goroka, the capi- Party (LDP) in impending upper-house tal of the country’s Eastern Highlands elections prompted Mr Masuzoe to resign province, and Lae, PNG’s second-largest on June 15th. The LDP may be relieved, but city. Calls forMrO’Neill to resign will prob- PAPUA his resignation is yet another embarrass- ably grow louder in the run-up to general NEW GUINEA ment for the city as it prepares to host the elections, scheduled fornext June. Goroka Olympics in 2020. LDP Many hoped forbetter from Mr O’Neill. Lae He is the second consecutive - INDONESIA Solomon In 2011 he set up an anti-corruption body Sea backed governor to quit amid a row over called Taskforce Sweep. Its investigations SOLOMON money. Mr Masuzoe’s predecessor, Naoki led to dozens of officials being arrested. Port ISLANDS Inose, resigned after the propriety of a Moresby However, Mr O’Neill’s enthusiasm for ¥50m loan he received from a medical in- Taskforce Sweep waned when it started in- 400 km stitution was challenged. Ironically, Mr Coral vestigating him, alleging that he autho- Sea Masuzoe, a TV commentator and ex-cabi- rised fraudulent payments of 72m kina net member, entered office promising to ($22.8m) to Paraka Lawyers, a local law QUEENSLAND run a clean administration and to restore firm. Both deny wrongdoing. Cairns the city government’s tainted reputation In June 2014 arrest warrants were is- AUSTRALIA ahead ofthe Olympics. 1 The Economist June 18th 2016 Asia 41

2 Koichi Nakano, a political scientist at tion. The design for the Olympic stadium carmaking in Australia. Sophia University in Tokyo, said that had was scuppered last year by criticism that it Mr Turnbull has promised to stanch the Mr Masuzoe remained in office, it would was too grandiose and environmentally flow of job losses. Australia will build 12 have “drawn more attention to the sort of destructive. Mr Masuzoe and the central new submarines in Adelaide, which will old-fashioned money politics represented government fought bitterly over the city’s employ around 3,000 people. At a cam- by the LDP, and they could have suffered” share of the price tag. He memorably com- paign stop in June, he vowed to bring “the at the ballot box. pared the central government’s bland reas- jobs ofthe future” to the state. But many lo- To the ire of many Tokyoites, Mr Masu- surances that the preparations were going cals still blame his predecessor fordestroy- zoe’s spendthrift ways will now trigger an- swimmingly to Japan’s Imperial Army in- ing the jobs of the present: Tony Abbott, other city election this summer, projected sisting that it was winning the second whom Mr Turnbull unseated as Liberal to cost around ¥5 billion. His resignation world war. leader last September, refused the car in- complicates the city’s preparation for the Among the candidates being touted as dustry’s pleas for more subsidies. The in- Olympics. Three years ago the Japanese his successor is Yuriko Koike, a female LDP dustry had long been uncompetitive, but capital’s reputation for efficiency and its legislator who previously served as de- to many South Australians it was part of residents’ enthusiasm for the Games gave fence and environment minister. Kenji their identity. Tokyo’s bid an edge over rival applications Utsunomiya, a former head of Japan’s bar Enter Mr Xenophon. He first won elec- from Madrid and Istanbul. association, is also expected to make a bid, tion to state parliament in 1997 on an anti- But the Olympic plans have been as will others. But the appeal ofoverseeing gambling platform. Since moving up to the plagued by cost overruns and administra- an economy larger than the Netherlands’, federal parliament eight years ago, he has tive bungling. Japan’s Olympic committee could quicklyfade ifOlympicpreparations emerged as a popular national figure. His has been ensnared in a bribery investiga- continue to go awry. 7 views are eclectic: suspicious of foreign investment, free trade and carbon taxes; but resolutely pro-immigration. This year, for Australia’s election the first time, he is fielding candidates for all of South Australia’s lower house seats, Time of Nick and forthe upper house in all six states. A recent poll gave the Nick Xenophon Team 22% of first votes in South Australia. That may be enough to snatch at least Mayo, a prized Liberal lower-house seat WHYALLA near Adelaide. Mr Xenophon’s candidate there is Rebekha Sharkie, who once Chasing votes in Australia’s rust belt worked forthe seat’s Liberal member. LECTRICITY pylons on the long, barren says Peter Calliss, an estate agent. She left the Liberals four years ago, Ehighway leading north of Whyalla, an That has changed: today South Austra- amid what she saw as the party’s right- industrial city in the state of South Austra- lia is weathering a nasty downturn. Col- ward drift: “They seemed to have forgotten lia, are festooned with campaign posters. lapsing ore prices and a global steel glut middle Australia.” She was also dismayed Australia is just weeks away from a general pushed Arrium, a large steelmaker in byMrAbbott’sspeakingundera “Ditch the election: Malcolm Turnbull, the prime Whyalla, into administration in April. The Witch” sign aimed at Julia Gillard, then the minister, is seeking a second term for his state shed thousands of manufacturing prime minister. Ms Sharkie reckons her conservative Liberal-National coalition jobs in the past decade; no state has a high- moderate politics will play well in South against a revived Labor Party, led by Bill er unemployment rate (6.9%). More will go Australia. Shorten. But most posters on the Whyalla when General Motors leaves Adelaide Polls show they may do so nationally, highway depict neither of these major- next year, bringing to an end 69 years of too. Mr Xenophon’s team could win party candidates. Instead, they show the enough Senate seats to hold bargaining grinning face of Nick Xenophon, an inde- power with whichever major party wins pendent senator from Adelaide, the state the lower house. Liberal and Labor, old capital, whose influence reaches far be- archenemies, are even discussing deals yond his home state. that could involve asking their supporters By calling an election for July 2nd, Mr to cast their second votes tactically to Turnbull hoped to strengthen his position thwart Mr Xenophon and the Australian with a solid mandate. Strong leaders are in Greens, another small party, under the short supply: in the past decade Australia lower house’s preferential voting system. has had three governments and five prime Mr Xenophon ascribes his rising popu- ministers. Mr Turnbull began the cam- larity to a “changing old order in politics”. paign with a hefty lead, but polls have He rails against free-trade agreements, tightened. And South Australia—abundant blaming them for job losses and castigat- in red desert, farms and mines, but with ing Australia’s “lousy negotiators”. He just 8% of Australia’s 24m people—has wants the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12- emerged as a fierce battleground. nation trade pact that Australia has agreed For more than a century iron ore has to, but not yet ratified, “taken offthe table”. been dug out of the state’s mountains. In That is unlikely to happen. Still, his eco- recent years Chinese demand triggered a nomic populism resonates in South Aus- boom: when the financial crash eightyears tralia. Ian Walkden, who owns an office- ago sent other countries into recession, supply business in Whyalla, predicts a South Australia kept building. Investors swing towards Mr Xenophon’s slate. “Lost snapped up tidy little houses on the edge manufacturing is not just about Whyalla,” of the desert at Whyalla, then a boom- he says. “It’s about South Australia and the town. “Wedidn’t really feel the crisis here,” Mr X marks the spot whole ofAustralia.” 7 42 Asia The Economist June 18th 2016 Banyan The lost continent

Europe’s frustrating search forstrategicrelevance in Asia that the Europeans appeared not to have grasped that their continent was in terminal decline. These perceptions have become even more entrenched as the EU has grappled with its internal ag- onies of economic distress, mass migration and the risk of Brexit. Europe, the story goes, is too preoccupied with its own woes to give thrusting, emerging Asia the attention and respect it deserves. It does not help that the EU is excluded from the two ASEAN- centred groups that are establishing themselves as the most important forums for discussing security issues: the East Asia Sum- mit and the cumbersomely named ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus. Besides the ten ASEAN members, these include eight other countries, among them America, China, India, Japan and Russia, but not the EU. It is a Catch-22: the EU is not deemed sufficiently engaged in Asian security to qualify formembership; yet without it, contributing to the debate is difficult. Asian EU-doubters point out that the tiny military presence in Asia is anyway not in the EU’s name but in that of two member- states: France, which has 8,000 security personnel in the region to protect its territories in the Indian and Pacific oceans; and Brit- ain, which maintains a Gurkha garrison in Brunei and some re- HEN American strategists role-play scenarios about a crisis sidual facilities in Singapore. The other European defence minis- Wwith China—probably, these days, a flare-up in the South ter to speak at Shangri-La this year, Britain’s Michael Fallon, did China Sea—they know they can rely on theirfriends in Europe. As not mention the EU’s security role in Asia, stressing instead the America sends another carrier strike group and Chinese subma- hope that it would “flex its financial, diplomatic and legal mus- rines slinkout oftheirbases, the European Union (EU) stiffens the cles, as it has been doing with Russia”. He also spoke of Britain’s sinews, summons up the blood and proceeds to…issue a stiff pride in belonging to “the only formal multilateral defence ar- statement. Europe’s irrelevance to Asian security has been la- rangement in South-East Asia”, the Five Power Defence Arrange- mented foryears at regional conferences and in countless papers. ments linking it with Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and New Given its size, wealth and ties with the region, including hefty Zealand—a legacy of Britain’s hasty withdrawal from “East of arms sales, one might expect the EU to play a bigger role in the re- Suez” nearly halfa century ago. gion’s defence and security. But it is not clear either that it should, That points to another Asian complaint: that the EU is divided or that it will ever be willing to. and cannotspeakwith one voice. ASEAN diplomats, forexample, The EU itself sometimes displays a puppyish eagerness to joke that Britain, in its determination to become China’s “best have its military pretensions stroked: “Please, please, don’t just friend in Europe”, might thwart EU consensus at China’s behest, look at us as a big free-trade area,” pleaded Federica Mogherini, just as small countries such as Laos and Cambodia sometimes do the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, at the annual in ASEAN. This week, for example, ASEAN scrambled to retract a Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last year. She insisted that the statement by its foreign ministers that implicitly criticised Chi- EU is also “a foreign-policy community, a security and defence na’s maritime expansionism. Similarly, some European officials provider”. Its diplomats like to boast of the success of Operation worry that Chinese cash and favours to some of the EU’s eastern Atalanta, in which, since 2008, an EU naval force has helped pro- members in particular may make those stiff statements a little tect ships offthe Horn ofAfrica from pirates. more flaccid in future. So far that is a one-off. But at the Shangri-La Dialogue earlier China will seekto lure the EU as a whole away from following this month, France’s defence minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, sug- America’s China policies; and, as it does with ASEAN, it will seek gested a European role in the region’s most pressingsecurity wor- to exploit internal tensions. A new paper by the International In- ry: tension over China’s territorial expansion in the South China stitute for Strategic Studies, the London-based think-tank that or- Sea. Mr Le Drian proposed that European navies “co-ordinate to ganises the Shangri-La Dialogue, calls this “negative strategic ensure a presence that is as regular and visible as possible in the spillover” from competition between EU members for China’s maritime areasin Asia”. So pleased wasthe ministerwith his idea commercial favour. that he intends shortly to explain it to his European colleagues. He would have been more convincing had he done this before Come on in, the water’s lovely unveiling it. If EU defence ministers cannot co-ordinate their None of this, however, seems a good reason either to exclude the statements, what hope for their navies? Many dismissed his pro- EU from the forums where Asian security is discussed, or to react posal as an empty flourish that would soon be forgotten. unenthusiastically when Europeans do suggest greater involve- Cynicism about Europe is especially acute within ASEAN, the ment. A European military presence in the South China Sea Association of South-East Asian Nations. It has a long history of would show that what is at stake there is not just a competition bickering with the EU, first over Timor-Leste when it was under between America and China: it is the future of a rules-based glo- Indonesian rule, and then Myanmar under its former military bal system. Europeans, so used to talk of their sliding global junta. Former European colonies saw Europe’s preaching about standing, and so befuddled by their internal troubles, tend to for- human rights as hypocritical. More generally, Asians were irked get that Asia needs them as much as they need Asia. 7 China The Economist June 18th 2016 43

Also in this section 44 Oﬃcials squirm on camera

For daily analysis and debate on China, visit Economist.com/china

Traffic ping point. It is conducting surveys to “pressure test” how people would react to The great crawl a congestion fee, says Yuan Yue ofHorizon, China’s biggest polling company (the results will not be made public). It is likely that a concrete plan fora congestion charge will be announced soon. Beijing’senviron- BEIJING mental and transport departments (not usual partners) are collaboratingon a draft. The Chinese love theircars but do not want to pay more fordriving them State media have recently published a flur- ATE last month a black-and-white photo- Complaints about the inequality of con- ry ofarticles about this, not all in favour. Lgraph of a professor from Beijing Jiao- gestion charging echo those made in Lon- Public opinion is not the only challenge tong University spread on social media. don and other cities before they launched a congestion scheme faces. The urban His image was edged by a black frame, like such schemes. Butthe party, nervousof be- planners who conceived Beijing’s layout, those displayed at funerals in China, and ing accused of straying from socialism, is and that of other Chinese cities, never trimmed with white flowers of mourning. particularly sensitive to accusations that it imagined that so many people would Though Mao Baohua is still very much is favouring the wealthiest. want to drive. The capital now has 3.6m alive, he had angered netizens enough to Because ofsuch objections, citygovern- privately owned cars: the number per depict him as dead. His crime? To suggest ments have not pushed their proposals 1,000 people in Beijinghas increased an as- that Beijing should follow the likes of Lon- very hard. But that is now changing in Bei- tonishing 21-fold since 2000, according to don and Stockholm, by charging drivers jing, where officials face a dilemma. Traffic our sister company, the Economist Intelli- 20-50 yuan ($3-7.50) to enter the capital’s jams in the city and appalling air pollu- gence Unit (see chart). On most days large busiest areas in the hope of easing traffic tion—30% of which comes from vehicle tracts of the capital are now bumper to flow in the gridlocked city. fumes, by official reckoning—may end up bumper amid a cacophony of car horns. Most Chinese urbanites see buying a causing as much popular resentment as Beijingers have the longest average com- vehicle as a rite of passage: a symbol of anysurcharge. The local governmentis try- mute of any city in China, according to wealth, status and autonomy, as it once ing to work out how close it is to this tip- data collected by Baidu, a Chinese search was in America. Hence theiroutrage at any engine. The problem is not confined to restraint on driving. Since car ownership is Beijing. The capital has higher vehicle more concentrated among middle- and Head over wheels ownership than any other Chinese city, high-income earners in China than it is in Beijing but caruse is risingrapidly across the coun- richercountries, any attackon driving is, in Number of public Cars per try. Many second- and third-tier cities are effect, essentially aimed at the middle transport vehicles,’000 ’000 population already clogged. class, a group the Communist Party is keen 25 200 Beijing’s congestion scheme would be to keep on side. That makes it hard to push 20 160 the first outside the rich world, where a through changes its members dislike. handful of cities now charge drivers to en- Since 2009 officials in Beijing and the 15 120 ter a designated area. (Singapore has a dif- southern city of Guangzhou have repeat- ferent form ofroad pricing, with tolls on in- edly aired the idea of introducing conges- 10 80 dividual arterial roads.) Such measures tion charges. Netizenshave foughtback, ac- 5 40 have been credited with reductions in cusing their governments of being lazy, downtown car-use, improved traffic flow brutal and greedy. Many also gripe that the 0 0 and greater use of public transport. They policy would be “unfair” because the fee 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 have also cut pollution, including emis- would have less impact on the super-rich. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit sions of the tiny PM2.5 particles that are 1 44 China The Economist June 18th 2016

2 particularlydangerousto health and abun- tribute more than halfofthe poisonous ni- first time, local bigwigs are not just speak- dant in Beijing’s air. trogen oxides produced by the capital’s ing in public, which is rare enough, but Transport planners reckon a congestion traffic, and more than 90% of their emis- competing against one another and being zone would have similar effects in Beijing, sions ofPM2.5 and other toxic particles. judged by ordinary folk, which is unheard and complement existing attempts to re- Congestion charging would certainly of. One tourism official from Shanxi told a strict car use. In 2008, after Beijing staged deter some drivers from using their cars in newspaperin Shanghai that “in the past all the Olympic games, the city launched the the city centre. It might even discourage we had to do was hand in a report.” But be- current system whereby each car is others from buying cars: at the current rate cause it was on TV, he said, the process banned from the urban core one workday of registration, there could be another half now had to be taken more seriously. “Top per week, depending on the last digit of its a million more in Beijing by 2020. Beijing officials have to be involved.” Ofthe11con- licence plate. Beijing is now one of 11 Chi- could claim a victory of sorts just by man- testants, three are municipal Communist nese cities with similar restrictions. aging to get such a scheme in place, against Partybosses, five are city mayors and three But some drivers choose to pay the 100 the wishes of a networked middle class. are vice-mayors. yuan fine, which is farhigher than the con- But that may prove harder than navigating For most of them, it has been their first gestion charge that Beijing is now mulling Beijing’s traffic-snarled streets. 7 experience of speaking to live cameras. (around the sums suggested by Professor They have taken to it like naturals. The Mao). People also drive without plates, or mayor of Yangquan city learned a bit of buy second cars, to bypass the rules. In 2011 Reality television English to spice up his bid (“Seeing is be- the capital introduced a lottery for obtain- lieving,” he said. “Open and inclusive ing new licence plates (six other cities do You’re stir-fried Yangquan people welcome you to this). In Beijing the scheme has slowed the come!”). The party chief of Yucheng suf- increase in car ownership, but not enough squid fered a slipped disc but soldiered on, re- to cut congestion; some residents use vehi- hearsing her speech flat on her back. The cles registered elsewhere. Also in 2011 the BEIJING deputy mayor of Linfen handed out virtu- capital raised parking fees, hoping to deter al-reality glasses to the judges as part ofhis That is, “you’re fired” in Chinese: drivers. But people often park on pave- pitch (it worked: he won his round). officials meet “The Apprentice” ments and traffic islands instead, usually Viewers love seeingjudgestake officials with impunity. HINAdoesn’thave free elections. It has to task. “Youwould do better to tell us just Making it easier forcars to drive on side C reality television instead. The latest one or two things instead of so many that streets through residential areas would such show even has the flavour of a politi- we forget them,” said one judge. “What did help, but the middle class rebuffs this too. cal contest: the competitors are all high- you mean by your slogan?” asked another. Many wealthier residents live in gated ranking officials. It has been a big hit. “I didn’t get it.” communities, which have become com- Since May the programme, “Sights of “This is awesome,” tweeted one micro- mon since urban housing, once almost en- Shanxi”, has been airing live every Friday blogger. “Does CCTV [the national state- tirely state-owned, was privatised in the on a channel in the northern province of run broadcaster] want to pull together all 1990s.Recentproposalstoopentheseareas that name. In the show, local cities bid to the provinces and do something similar?” to through-traffic provoked an uproar on play host to a tourism-development con- asked another commentator, hopefully. social media. Middle-class Chinese see liv- ference. The contestants have to tell four The show’s director, Gong Qiaoli, called ing in a compound with private, quiet judges why their city is such a great place, the officials “cute and friendly”, terms not roads as a sign oftheir upward mobility. in front of a studio audience of100 people often applied to Chinese bureaucrats. So IfcongestioncharginginBeijingistoen- and a panel of experts. The judges grill the far8.3m people have voted online. courage the use ofpublic transport, the city contestants, who advance or fail according The government itself is partly respon- will have to work fast to enable this. It has to votes cast by the audience in the studio, sible for the show’s success. The head of spent a lot of money in recent years trying the judges and internet users. Shanxi television, Tao Yixiao, says that his to make the transport system better: the What makes this special is that, for the colleagues originally wanted to limit the metro network has expanded from three audience’s contribution to the scoring. It lines in 2002 to18 now,makingit one of the was the provincial vice-governor, Wang most extensive in the world. But these ef- Yixin, who insisted that the votes of the forts have failed to keep up with demand. studio audience and panellists, as well as The subway is so overcrowded that on an those of viewers at home, should be given average day the authorities limit entrance more weight. When some of the cities to more than a fifth of stations at some started to getcold feetabouttaking part, Mr point. Public transport accounted for half Wang urged them on. of all journeys last year (despite a target of The government has good reason to be 65% set in 2010), compared with 85% of encouraging them. Shanxi’s economy is trips in London even before the British cap- struggling; tourism is its favoured way of ital launched its congestion charge in 2003. diversifying away from its traditional coal- Taxis are relatively cheap in China, making mining business. In other words, appeal- them a popular alternative. Middle-class ing to an audience actually helps its broad- people often look down on public tran- er aims. Perhaps the idea will catch on and sport as the poor person’s choice. Some cit- some reality-television host will one day ies, including Guangzhou, have tried to make the great leap into nationwide poli- tackle this(with some success) byintroduc- tics, perhaps even running for president. ing “bus rapid-transit” systems with mod- Oh, wait… 7 ern-looking stops. A congestion charge in Beijing may not ...... do as much to cut pollution as some hope. Prize: Our correspondent in Beijing, Rosie Blau, has won the “excellence in lifestyle coverage” award from The city says that only 4% of motor vehi- the Society of Publishers in Asia for her Christmas story cles in Beijingare heavy-duty,but they con- “Park life”, published in our December 19th edition. The Economist June 18th 2016 ESSAY EUROPE 45

Between the borders

The idea of European unity is more complicated than its supporters or critics allow

F ALL the glories contained in the French foreign ministry, the most glorious is the Salon de l’Horloge. Sumptuous in gold and marble, graced by chandeliers and silks, washed with light slanting up from the River Seine, this is where old men thrashed out the Treaty of Versailles after the ﬁrst world war. The Kellogg-Briand pact was signed here in 1928, pledging to outlaw theO aggressive resort to arms forever. And, on April 18th 1951, exalted by the trappings ofempire, ministers from West Germany, Italy, France and the three Benelux countries put their names to the Treaty of Paris, the foundingdocument ofwhat, fourdecades later, was to become the European Union. Fitted out in the trappings ofa scheme to manage the production ofcoal and steel, the treaty was at its heart a Franco-German peace accord. In keeping with its surroundings, its physical instantiation was sumptuous and symbolic. In his memoirs Jean Monnet, its progenitor, describes a document printed in France on Dutch paperwith German ink, gathered in a bindingfrom Belgium and Luxembourgand deco- rated with a bookmark woven from Italian silk. What Monnet does not say is that, because the negotiations had been so frantic, the sheet ofpaper the ministers actually signed had been left blank. Were they alive today, those ministers would be amazed by how their successors have crammed that empty page full to bursting with institutions and countries. The community started out with six members, four languages, 177m people and (in 2014 money) $1.6 trillion in annual output. Today’s EU has 28 members, 24 languages, 505m people and a GDP of$19 trillion. For a version containing an More generous than Versailles and more practical than Kellogg-Briand, the Treaty of Paris has blos- interactive map, timelines and a somed into a unique supranational form ofgovernment. The EU has a court, a parliament, an executive bibliography go to economist.com and a president (several presidents, in fact), an apparatus much ofwhich can be traced back to that spring1 46 ESSAY EUROPE The Economist June 18th 2016

2 day in 1951. And it has been fundamental to a great historical shift. many’s occupyingforces did not save In a continent whose history is written in blood, the idea of the 16,000 people who starved in the France, Germany or any of the large European states taking up Dutch “hunger winter” of 1944/45. In arms against each other has become unthinkable. the three weeks after Soviet troops And yet those ministers would also be dismayed by how much took Vienna 87,000 women were re- today’s Europeans have to complain about. A common currency ported to have been raped. The daily theyneverenvisaged hasdone greatdamage and provoked roiling ration in the American zone of occu- discord. Unemployment in the euro zone has been 10% or more pied Germany in June 1945 was 860 since September 2009 (excepting a blessed few months in 2011 calories, a third of what is recom- when it dipped as low as 9.8%); among the young it hovers at mended today. The intergovernmen- around 20% across the EU. A flow of migrants comparable only to tal arrangements that grew up in the the post-warExodus still fresh in the minds ofthose men in the Sa- 1950s would have been impossible lon de l’Horloge is closing borders and deepening divisions. Euro- without these enormities. sceptic parties are rising across the continent, including in Ger- The post-war desolation was un- many. Last month in Austria a far-right, anti-migrant, Eurosceptic like anything since the Thirty Years candidate only just missed being elected head of state. If Britain War of the 17th century, a religious “Aleap in the votes to leave the EU on June 23rd, it will break a European taboo; paroxysm which killed a similar dark” – Robert there will be growing pressure forsimilar referendums elsewhere. share of the continent’s population. Only a few years ago pundits were writing books with titles The Treaty of Westphalia, signed at Schuman on the like “The European Dream” and “Why Europe will run the 21st that war’s end in 1648, shaped how Treaty of Paris Century”. Yet today Jan Zielonka, professorofEuropean politics at Europe thought about conflict for the Oxford, reports that when he talks to European policymakers he is next three centuries: states should “stunned by their scepticism”. In May the president of the com- not interfere in each other’s domestic mission, Jean-Claude Juncker, lamented that: “in former times we affairs; the way to contain countries’ ambitions was by maintain- were working together…we were in charge of a big piece of his- ing a balance ofpower. tory. This has totally gone.” Donald Tusk, president of the Euro- As the modern state evolved, that balance became harder to pean Council, is even bleaker, saying that: “the idea of one EU manage. In the 18th century Britain forged its constituent countries state, one vision…was an illusion.” into a United Kingdom with imperial reach. Revolutionary France Italwayswas. The myth around which the EU has grown is that became the first nation to harness all the state’s resources to the ministers and their officials always planned gradually, but inexo- waging of war; Napoleon’s Grande Armée conquered the conti- rably, to subordinate the nation state to a higherEuropean order. In nent. Asthe 19th centurywore on, governmentsexploited Blut und the words of Vaclav Klaus, a former prime minister of the Czech Boden—blood and soil—as a tool to create national identities that Republic, countrieswould “dissolve in Europe like a lump of sugar increased their power. Compilations of folklore, tales of illustri- in a cup of coffee”. But although Monnet and some of those ous forebears, genealogies of language and theories of race were around him did indeed dream of a European superstate, the poli- all put to work bolstering these identities. “The educated, multi- ticians who made use of their ideas did not. The pooling of sover- lingual cosmopolitan elite ofEurope grew weaker,” writes the his- eignty found in the treaties first of Paris and then of Rome—which torian Norman Davies, “the half-educated national masses, who created the European Economic Community in 1957—was de- thought of themselves only as Frenchmen, Germans, English or signed to save the nation state, not bury it. Europe’s governments Russians, grew stronger.” have jealously guarded their powers ever since. After1814 Germany invaded France five times. After1914 the an- If one key aspect of Europe has stayed constant, another has tagonisms and ambitions ofEuropean nation-states with colonies come full circle. Monnet’s scheme was an answer to the problem on almost every continent twice dragged the whole world into ofGermany: too large to co-exist as a first among equals, too small war. Far-fetched as it seems today, the dread in 1945 was that Ger- to dominate its neighbours without resort to force. It was, for a many would rise up yet again, as a Fourth Reich. Fear of Germany long time, a good answer. For 65 years Germany has been pre- was compounded by fear ofRussia, especially after the Soviet Un- pared to subsume itself in Europe and, in exchange, has been al- ion backed a Communist coup in Prague in 1948. lowed to act as a full member of the Western alliance. Today, by This, then, was the context forthe Treaty of Paris. All across Eu- dint of unification and EU enlargement as well as its mighty econ- rope states had failed their people. Some European countries had omy, Germany runs Europe. embraced Fascism. Others had crumbled. War had become total. Nobody thinks Europe’s great power is about to take up arms. The very idea ofEurope had failed. But what sort of union does it want? What sort of union will its Beset by hunger, exhaustion and fear, governments desperate partners—especiallyFrance—be prepared to accept? And what sort to ensure peace soughtto extend theircare ofordinary people.Asa ofreform could bring such a new Europe about? The Treaty ofPar- British historian, Alan Milward, hasargued, to be legitimate in this is was made possible by an unrepeatable, galvanising set of cir- fractured world the state had to strive to bring prosperity, employ- cumstancesborn oftwo world warsand the newSovietthreat. No ment and welfare to new voters—factory workers if they were not comparable external forces are at play today; noris there any obvi- to be tempted byBolshevism, and farm workersiftheywere notto ous internal dynamic that can replace them. be tempted by Fascism, as they had been when agricultural wages collapsed in the 1930s. It was from this need to prevent war and safeguard the state HAT is Europe?” asked Winston Churchill in that the European communities arose. The link was clearest in May 1947. “A rubble-heap, a charnel house, a France. Prosperity required West German raw materials; France breeding ground for pestilence and hate.” had depended on German coal since the 1890s, and by the 1930s The war in Europe had killed 36.5m peo- had become the world’s largest coal importer. At the same time “Wple. In manycountriesmore civilianshad died than soldiers. In his Germany had to be kept from renewed aggression. In 1945 Charles epic account of the aftermath, “Postwar”, the historian Tony Judt de Gaulle felt the best way to meet these goals would be to put the records that, in Yugoslavia, wardestroyed 25% ofvineyards, 50% of coal and steel industries in the Ruhr and Rhineland permanently livestock, 60% ofthe roads, 75% ofrailway bridges, 30% ofindustry under French control. France would guarantee its own safety by and 20% ofhomes. keeping WestGermany as an agrarian state. Liberation and defeat had been hard. Allied victories over Ger- This was vetoed by the Americans and the British, partly be-1 The Economist June 18th 2016 ESSAY EUROPE 47

2 cause they worried that a poor, suppressed West Germany would eitherrebel orfallunderSovietinfluence. Asa fallback, in1946 and Monnet and momentum 1947, France flirted with the Soviet Union about an alliance in the The member states of the European communities, and later Union* East, an old strategy based on the balance-of-power logic of the GDP, $trn Population, m Treaty ofWestphalia. Stalin was not interested. Accession years: 1973 1981 1986 1995 2004 2007 2013 So it was that in 1949 France’s foreign minister, Robert Schu- 20 500 man, resorted to what European mythmaking casts as a bold new vision and history records as a third choice close to a last resort: 16 400 Monnet’s plan for a Coal and Steel Community. The scheme, 12 300 which Schuman presented in a “declaration” in the Salon de l’Hor- loge,wasatradetreatywithanoveltwist.ItcreatedaHighAuthor- 8 200 ity,which stood above the six governments, to administer its pro- 4 100 visions. All the participants were equal and the pact was open to new members. 0 0 Schuman told the press the plan was “a leap in the dark”. Yet 1952 60 70 80 90 2000 10 15 what is striking is not how far-reaching it was, but how tentative. Sources: Conference Board; UN *All of Germany included in EU figures from 1952 The idea of European union had a long history—Victor Hugo had talked of a United States of Europe as early as 1849. Perry Ander- atom), but he was unsure whether the common market was a son, a historian, has counted at least 600 publications between price worth paying. the wars proposing a united Europe. Next to almost all such On November6th 1956 Konrad Adenauer, WestGermany’sfirst schemes, the Treaty of Paris, with its focus on schedules of heavy- post-war chancellor, visited Paris in an attempt to persuade the industrial output, was as dry as coal dust. French to embrace the deal. He might have failed had it not been Why was it so modest? In part for the simple reason that the for the fact Anthony Eden, the British prime minister, telephoned states wished to give up as little as possible. But in part, too, it was Mollet during their meeting to say that Britain, under pressure the tenor of the times. Grand schemes to remake society were from the Americans, had called off its military operation with the tainted by Nazism and Bolshevism. In the second world war Al- French and Israelis in Suez. Mollet was incensed; Adenauer seized bert Speer, Hitler’s chief architect, had drawn up plans for a pan- the moment: “Europe will be your revenge.” European political order. Pierre Pucheu, executed for his role as a Other American encouragements for European institution- senior administrator in Vichy France, had called for a single cur- building were more deliberate. Writing in 1948 the diplomat rency.There was a general suspicion of politics and passion. Ray- George Kennan summed up the view in Washington: if Germany mond Aron, a French philosopher, thought that modern society was restored without European integration, there would be a Ger- was “to be observed without transports ofenthusiasm orindigna- man attempt to dominate. If Germany was not restored, there tion”. “Where the first world war had a politicising, radicalising ef- would be domination by Russia. America required a strong, fect,” Judt writes, “its successor produced the opposite outcome: a prosperous Europe that settled the German question, and worked deep longing fornormality.” to that end. Without its support the enterprise might have failed. So, too, might it have done without Monnet. He was a remarkable man. Born in the department of Charente in western France, N THOSE early years the states guarded their privileges jeal- he left school at16 and went to workin the family cognac business ously—to the furyofMonnet and his band offederalists. Take, in London. Later he became deputy secretary-general of the for instance, a proposal in 1950 to create a European army as League of Nations, served a stint in Shanghai and, during the sec- an alternative to West German rearmament under NATO ond world war, acted forthe British in Washington (John Maynard (whichI had been created the previous year). During the Korean Keynes thought his success at procuring arms and equipment war, seen as a sign of menacing Soviet ambition, the idea made shortened the fighting by a year). Time and again, Monnet was progress. But the six governments found it hard to agree on how a able to call on his formidable American diplomatic and political European army should be run; French Gaullists hated the loss of connections to help clear away obstacles to his plan. sovereignty.America threatened an “agonising reappraisal” of re- But he was not able to turn the politicians who were gingerly lations if France voted against the defence treaty. Nevertheless in using his ideas into true believers. De Gaulle, whom Monnet sus- August1954,afterthe Korean warwas pected of bugging his phone, was an early and enduring sceptic. over, the French National Assembly He dismissed Europe as “ce machin”—this thingummy—and put a rejected the European Defence Com- break on anything that diluted national governments’ power that munity by 319 votes to 264. The vic- was to last long after the general retired to rural seclusion in Co- tors celebrated with a rousing chorus lombey-les-Deux-Eglises in 1969. In the early1970s, the French for- ofthe “Marseillaise”. eign minister, Michel Jobert, asked Edouard Balladur, later to be fi- The same fate almost befell nego- nance minister and prime minister, what the term European tiationsto broaden the Coal and Steel Union actually meant. “Nothing,” Mr Balladur replied, “but then Community into the European Eco- that is the beauty ofit.” nomic Community, a free-trade area Today the European project is seen through the haze of the known as the “common market”. At 1980s, at a stage when the original common market had attracted a conference in Messina in 1955 the new members in the north—Britain, Ireland and Denmark—and in French agreed to study the plan only the newly democratic south—Spain, Portugal and Greece. Jacques after a desperate late-night session Delors, another French finance minister, oversaw a burst of inte- between the enthusiastic Belgian de- gration during his tenure as president of the European communi- legate and his reluctant French col- “People here feel ties. It brought the single market, the European Union, limits on league. A year later, the French prime the scope of governmental vetoes, extra powers for the European minister, Guy Mollet, was still waver- deeply that they Parliamentand, eventually, the single currency. The collapse ofthe ing. True to France’s perennial con- are European” Warsaw Pact and, later, EU membership for the former Commu- cerns about where its energy would – André Klein nist countries only cemented the impression that Europe’s ad- come from he wanted an agreement vance was part ofthe order ofthings. on nuclear power (known as Eur- It suits the EU’s devotees and its critics alike to treat the 1 48 ESSAY EUROPE The Economist June 18th 2016

2 strengthening and deepening of the Delors years as a default con- tiers barely exist. Not far down the A35 is EuroAirport, serving dition. The period conforms to the founding myth ofan ever-clos- France, Switzerland and Germany. On a recent Sunday French and er union run out of Brussels by a powerful bureaucracy, some- German protesters met on the banks of the Rhine to demonstrate thing devotees treat as inevitable and critics as conspiracy. In fact, in two languages against the nearby nuclear power station at Fes- though, Mr Delors was the exception. His achievements were pos- senheim. “Radioaktivität kennt keine Grenzen”, one banner read: sible chiefly because the member states wanted to use the EU ma- radioactivity knows no borders. chinery as a way of catching up with the economic liberalisation One border that is pointedly ignored by subatomic particles that was bearing fruit in America and Britain under Ronald Rea- lies between France and Switzerland at Meyrin, 300km from Col- gan and Margaret Thatcher. For her part, Thatcher went along; she mar. The mighty accelerators of CERN, a joint European physics saw the single market as the sort ofEurope that Britain wanted. laboratory, straddle the frontier there, their beams of protons The EU was not predestined, but makeshift. In the frantic poli- whirling between the two countries at almost the speed of light. tics of the post-war world other Europes were possible. But the Forseveral yearsMrKlein worked asan administratorat CERN. He one that actually came into being has been oddly durable. The reminisces about an international meeting at the lab during the fretful union of today, dominated by governments that scrap and cold war. The atmosphere was frosty, but when the chairman took bicker and backslide, is not an aberration. It is how things began. off his jacket and the rest followed, Chinese, Russians, Americans That blank piece of paper in the Salon de l’Horloge was not so and Europeans were suddenly just physicists. Mr Klein sees no much a symbol ofEurope’s unwritten potential as ofhow integra- conflictin multiple identities. He issimultaneouslya native ofCol- tion would be hard-fought and uncertain. Even if some countries mar, an Alsatian, a Frenchman and a European. are ready to give up certain powers from time to time, others are Marco Zanni often drives past Colmar on his way from Milan not, and nothing happens without a consensus. Leaders rarely act to the European Parliament in Strasbourg where, at the age of just without a crisis to spur them on, and as a result their remedies are 29, he is an MEP for Italy’s Five Star Movement. He, too, sees him- often inadequate. self as a European. He studied business in Barcelona alongside Pro-Europeans lookbackto a golden age when statesmen were people from across Europe. He was an investment banker in Italy. fired up by a common purpose. But such elite enthusiasm was He is polyglot. never universal, and prevailed only briefly. Things might have But Mr Zanni thinks that the EU—and especially the euro—is been different had the idea ofEurope won over Europe’s people. driving Europe apart. His father, an engineer who worked for Ital- cementi, a building-materials multinational, had to delay retirement because of Italy’s pension cuts during the euro crisis. He re- VER lunch in an Alsatian restaurant, André Klein de- members a Greek student mocking a German classmate in the clares that nationalism is the disease and Europe the university in Barcelona, thanking him sarcastically for paying his cure. A kindly man dressed in a round-collared Alsa- taxes. The euro zone’sone-size-fits-all regime, he says, means debt- tian tweed jacket, Mr Klein is a native of the town of ors cannot decide their mix of policies. An obsession with auster- OColmar, where the cobbled streets are lined with half-timbered ity is preventing countries from restoring economic growth. The 1 houses. When he was born, in 1938, his home town was in France, as it is to- The growth of the European Union day; but for almost half the previous 1952 Founding of ECSC century it had been in Germany, and Greenland (to Denmark) Belgium, France, Italy, 1973–85 Luxembourg, Netherlands, it soon was again. His first memory is West Germany of being dug choking from the rubble 1973 Britain, Denmark, Ireland after an Allied bomb fell on his 1981 Greece house. He was educated at the Ecole 1985 Greenland (to Denmark) leaves Nationale d’Adminstration—ENA— 1986 Portugal, Spain alma mater of many of the republic’s Finland 1990 East Germany (unification) top civil servants and politicians. 1995 1995 Austria, Finland, Sweden Though he is too self-effacing to say 2004 Cyprus, Czech Republic, so, he is a model citizen of the EU. “I Sweden Estonia Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, 1995 2004 Lithuania, Malta, Poland, am European more than French,” he Slovakia, Slovenia Latvia says. “People here feel deeply that 2004 2007 Bulgaria, Romania they are European. It is necessary for Denmark 1973 Lithuania 2013 Croatia peace. They and their ancestors have Ireland 2004 1973 Future expansion seen too much conflict.” Netherlands For much of history his part of the 1952 Candidate countries Britain 1990 Poland Albania, Macedonia, 2004 world was a contested borderland. 1973 Germany Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey The Rhine, 20km east of Colmar, was 1952 Belgium Potential candidates 1952 Czech Rep. the Roman frontier. The town has 2004 Slovakia Bosnia, Kosovo Lux. 2004 been part of the Holy Roman Empire 1952 Austria 1995 Hungary and of a league of city states; in the France 2004 Romania Thirty Years War it was briefly con- 1952 Croatia 2007 Italy 2013 quered by the Swedes before the 1952 Bulgaria Treaty ofWestphalia gave it to France. 2007 Portugal Slovenia The subsequent centuries ofturn and 1986 e Spain 2004 c Turkey turnabout between Germany and e candidate country 1986 e

France strengthened people’s region- r 1981 G al identity; their links to whichever capital city claimed them at the time Cyprus 2004 never grew that strong. Algeria (to France 1952–62) Malta Now that this borderland ﬁnds it- 2004 self in the heart of Europe, the fron- The Economist June 18th 2016 ESSAY EUROPE 49

2 European Central Bank (ECB) is out of anyone’s control. “This is for more powers and bigger budgets. the time to say the euro failed,” Mr Zanni believes. The project is That only makes it more remote. turning “Italians and Germans one against each other.” There is In 2001 the EU tried to put this “no community”, he says. “Wedon’t have a European people.” right with a constitution to establish Somewhere between the 78-year-old from Alsace and the 29- the union as a covenant directly be- year-old from Milan, Europe has lost its way.Plenty of people still tween Europeans, rather than a deal support the EU, some with passion: young Balts who see it as a stitched up between their govern- path to prosperity and a source ofsecurity; Belgians who hope for ments. The spirit ofPhiladelphia was a way to cope with their divisions; Italians and Romanians who never far from the mind of the con- seek a bulwark against their own crooked politicians. But a Euro- vention—especially that of its presi- pean identity remains elusive. dent and would-be Madison, the for- When, in 1861, Massimo d’Azeglio, an Italian statesman, said “We don’t have a mer president of France, Valéry “Wehave made Italy.Now we must make Italians,” he was outlin- Giscard d’Estaing. ing what seemed like a reasonable project. Germany was doing European people.” However the constitution’s 446 much the same with Germans; Britain had done something simi- – Marco Zanni articles and 36 supplementary proto- lar with Britons. But the tools which forged nations in the19thcen- cols spread over more than 500 tury—forebears, symbols, cultural achievements—look unaccept- pages. In Mr Anderson’s damning ably clumsy when used by Brussels today. judgment, it was “an impenetrable The EU created a pantheon of European heroes. Erasmus and scheme for the redistribution of oligarchic power”. In 2005 voters Galileo made it, but for some reason Grundtvig and Comenius in the Netherlands and—to the great surprise of their rulers— never caught on. It has something that looks like a flag but which, France roundly rejected it. It was then converted into the Lisbon according to Luuk van Middelaar, a Dutch historian, is officially a treaty. Voters in Ireland gave that the thumbs down, too, before be- “logo”, because the member states balked at flag-hood. It has boring bullied into ratifying it. rowed an anthem, “The Ode to Joy”, from Beethoven, but it re- The changes that sprung from Maastricht and the creation of mains a creature ofthe concert hall rather than the heart. the euro could not be justified on the basis that a single European In 1977 the commission proposed “European Rooms” in muse- electorate had voted for them: such an electorate didn’t exist. In- ums, but was beaten back by member states. In 1990 “Europe—A stead, the EU has had to fall back on what is known as “output le- History of its Peoples” was published simultaneously in eight lan- gitimacy”—the idea that Europe is justified by results. And it does guages, laughably depicting Homo erectus as “the first Europeans” indeed bring many benefits. Not only peace and markets, but and lamenting Europe’s being “outstripped by the Neolithic revo- weight in negotiations over such things as trade and climate lution” in the Middle East in 8000BC. An accompanying textbook change and influence in disputeswith Iran and Russia, not to men- caused rancour: the British were upset that Sir Francis Drake, tion the automatic right to travel and workabroad. whom they see as a hero for sinking the Spanish Armada, was dis- But output legitimacy fades. Long-standing benefits like peace missed as “a pirate”; Germans found accounts of Gaul being raid- are soon taken forgranted. Governments erode trust in “Brussels” ed by “barbarians” from across the Rhine degrading, and had the by blaming the EU for decent but unpopular deals that they have term replaced by “Germanic tribes”. signed up to. And output legitimacy is also by its nature weakest For many years such silliness did not matter. After France re- when mostneeded. The time when a system requirespropping up jected plans for a European army in 1954, Europe focused on what iswhen itisresented—which iswhen anyfaith thatitis doinggood Mr Van Middelaar calls the “low politics” oftariffs and trade, rath- will be at a low ebb. er than the high politics of grand strategy. Such an arrangement never needed much support from voters, and those voters did not care that the European project was technical and remote. RITING about world order, Henry Kissinger, a for- But the EU has since entered people’s lives. MrDelors’s burst of mer American secretary of state, observes that a integration began in 1986 with the Single European Act, the first geopolitical system must balance power and pos- ambitious reworking of the Treaty of Rome. This created a single sess legitimacy if it is to be stable. The system faces market, with consumer protection and product regulation. Six Wchallenges when power shifts or the sources of legitimacy alter. years later, the Maastricht treaty, a flawed attempt to deepen the The Soviet Union collapsed when Russian power declined; impe- union as a response to the perceived crisis of German unification, rial China was overthrown when the Qing dynasty could no lon- provided for an end to the franc, the lira and the escudo. When the ger command loyalty. eastern countries joined the EU, the rules on freedom of move- As Europe developed, champions of Monnet’s dream thought ment brought Polish plumbers and Romanian roofers into every- the source of its legitimacy should shift from governments to the day contact with Parisians and Londoners. citizens. But the citizens have resisted. At the same time power has The EU therefore needed popular legitimacy. One approach to shifted. Afterthe fall ofthe SovietUnion firstreunification and, lat- providing it has been to create new political power structures in er, the accession of the countries of central and eastern Europe in- the hope that political identity would follow. Thus in 2009 the di- creasinglyputGermanyin charge. The euro hasstrengthened Ger- rectly elected European Parliament was given the role of adopting many further. When the euro system has required someone to EU legislation alongside governments. It also now helps choose write a cheque, the pen has been brandished by Angela Merkel. the president ofthe commission. Monnet once said that Europe’s six founding countries had But a parliament does not produce a people. A survey in 2014, produced “a ferment ofchange”, starting “a process ofcontinuous before the most recent elections, found that one in ten Britons reform which can shape tomorrow’s world more lastingly than could name their MEP in Strasbourg, compared with half who the principles of revolution so widespread outside the West.” It is could name their MP in Westminster. Many voters treat elections an appealing vision; but the ferment has lost its fizz. A new settle- to the European Parliament as national polls that offer a chance to ment is needed. Unfortunately (in this respect) the forces at play registera protest against incumbent governments at home. As a re- today lackthe nation-shaking urgency that brought the communi- sult about a third of the institution meant to embody the spirit of ty together in the Salon de l’Horloge. And having failed to create European union turns out to be Eurosceptic. At the same time, the enough Europeans like Mr Klein, the EU lacks the popular legiti- parliament knows that most ofthe clout still lies with the member macy it needs to bring about reform. states. It therefore obsesses about EU process and, as if it were a There is no lack of advice about how to make up for these defi- lobbygroup ratherthan a legislature, spends its time campaigning ciencies. One commentator thinks the missing ingredient is reli-1 50 ESSAY EUROPE The Economist June 18th 2016

2 gious faith. Another reckons the EU went awry when it stopped F YOU take a train from Warsaw through the pine forests and being “boring”. Despite many countries’ chilly welcome to Syrian the lakes to Poland’s frontier with Belarus, you come eventu- migrants, some still believe in the EU’s importance as a moral ex- ally to Krasnogruda. Once it was the family house of the poet emplar for a world trapped in the zero-sum calculus of the West- Czeslaw Milosz. Today it is home to Fundacja Pogranicze, the phalian state. There are those who call for a dramatic transfer of IBorderlands Institute, a place teetering on Europe’s rim. powers and politics to the centre. They are countered by fans of a Settled by Poles, Lithuanians, Russian Orthodox, Roma, Belo- radical decentralisation, down to the level of the region and city. russians, Ukrainians and the odd Tartar, this soil has soaked up a Still others are drawing up blueprints forthe EU’s dismantling. lot ofblood—as much as Alsace, maybe more. It is a long way from Brexit is not the EU’s greatest problem. Whether Britain stays or the statesmen and their aides wrangling over treaties and laying goes, the union will have to grapple with migration and the euro, down history in the Salon de l’Horloge. which are even more complex. Its progress will be hampered by Krzysztof Czyzewski, the institute’s director, explains that na- economic stagnation. Unemployment will continue to feedpopu- tionalism here has separated families. People have had to decide lism and frustration with the elites. The fight will go on between whether they are, say, Polish or Lithuanian, when they are often a debtors and creditors over austerity,debt reliefand the ECB. Tothe bit ofboth. When such borderlands are troubled, people are easily extent that people feel economically hard-pressed, they will be persuaded to retreat into their identities, seeing all others through even less inclined to accept immigrants. The Germans won’t ac- narrowwindowsofhostility—aswhen Yugoslavia tore itself apart cept freeriding, the easterners won’t accept a collective response, in the1990s. and the migrants will keep coming. But in peaceful times, the borderlands are strong. Their people Those who lookto solve this with a leap ofintegration are like- can navigate complex, nested identities that are ethnic, national— ly to be disappointed. The politics ofpooling sovereignty has rare- and European. ly been easy.Delay usually prevails. But Eurosceptics who see the Mr Czyzewski calls himself a bridge-builder. His work is to EU as a house of cards are likely to be disappointed, too. When bring people back together. Not for him the ossified culture of na- faced with an inescapable choice, leaders usually find a compro- tion-states and the doomed, top-down schemes to create Euro- mise to tide themselves over until the next crisis. They value the peans that fit the remit of Brussels. Other Europes are possible. He EU greatly and they rightly fear the consequences ofits failure. believesthatpeople need an Agora, a common space where differ- As ever, France and Germany will play an outsize part in decid- ences can coexist—a place of peaceful borders peacefully crossed, ing whether the deep problems of migration and the euro culmi- be it central, like Colmar, orliminal, like Krasnogruda. nate in the development of a new stability or in collapse. France Security and the slow accretion of confidence can help people did not sign up to Europe as the juniorpartner, but Germany’s pre- move past nationalism to embrace a new European landscape of eminence hasturned itinto one. Perhaps, with itsgrowing popula- regions, cultures and cities. This is the Europe that is to be found in tion, it will recover its vitality. Or perhaps, weighed down by eco- Colmar and CERN; in the student bars of universities—even, per- nomic stagnation and the burden ofthe far-right, anti-EU National haps particularly, ifthe students from Germany and Greece mock Front, it will become a disgruntled and disruptive force. If France and goad each other there; in old battlefields as well stocked with rebels, muddling through will fail. holiday homes as with past glory and in the football stadiums More important still is Germany. It no longer needs Europe as where Europe’s great clubs vie for the cup. absolution for the second world war, and it has become too big to After more than 60 years of integration, nation-states persist, be just one power among many.At the same time, it is too small to stubborn and seemingly immovable. They will not go away. But at carry the EU’s burdens alone. This is the German question today. its best, in its lasting peace, Europe reveals something between German voters balk at a “transfer union” that sees their savings and beyond them. Ifthe EU is to thrive, its supporters must have it used to bail out countries in trouble. Iftransfers and debt reliefare take on something ofthe patchworkvision Mr Czyzewski lays out the price for holding Europe together, will Germany pay up? Or among the lakes and forests. Like him and Mr Klein, they must will it go its own way,with a coterie of close, like-minded follow- startto understand thatthe ethnicmosaicofthe borderlands isthe ers? What are the borders ofthe possible? most European identity ofall. 7

Between the water and the sky Middle East and Africa The Economist June 18th 2016 51

Also in this section 52 The scramble for .africa 53 Nigeria ﬂoats its currency 53 The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt 54 The sorry state of Arabic publishing

For daily analysis and debate on the Middle East and Africa, visit Economist.com/world/middle-east-africa

South Africa deployment”) to state-owned firms has made them less efficient—and less able to In need of an opposition supply South Africans with electricity, transport and unbiased television news. Politically, the president is weakened: he has been condemned by the country’s Constitutional Court forfailing to pay back JOHANNESBURG public money he spent on his home, is at risk of having corruption charges against The African National Congress is failing its people. Is there an alternative? him reinstated, and at war with his own fi- OWS of black marble headstones mark debt to junk is expected before the end of nance minister as the economy crumbles. Rthe graves of those who died in the the year. It is said that the five most senior party offi- Sharpeville massacre of1960, when South Own goals, like a new visa regime that cials below Mr Zuma have privately urged African police fired into a crowd ofdemon- makes it harder for tourists to take advan- him to step aside. There are rumours that strators, killing 69 of them including James tage of the cheap rand, are depressingly the party will try to push him out before Buti Bessie, who was 12. It is a solemn yet common. A new bill that will make it easi- his term ends in 2019, as happened to his peaceful place. Last month police invaded er for the state to force whites to sell land predecessor, Thabo Mbeki. it. They were chasing looters who were for redistribution to blacks (paying a “fair” All this ought to bode ill for the ruling hiding among the graves after a mob of price that the government will determine) African National Congress (ANC), which 200 ransacked two nearby supermarkets. waspassed byparliamentlastmonth. Min- has held power since South Africa’s first The looting had spilled over from a day ing investment has slowed to a trickle, in democratic vote in 1994. National elections of what South Africans call “service deliv- part because of“empowerment” rules that are not due until 2019, but municipal ones ery” protests—expressions ofoutrage at the require mining firms to ensure that 26% of will take place on August 3rd. The largest government’s failure to provide housing, their shares are held by black investors. opposition party, the Democratic Alliance running water, acceptable schools or, as in The appointment ofpolitical hacks (“cadre (DA), hopes for a breakthrough that could 1 Sharpeville, reliable electricity. Service delivery protests take many forms—roads, even motorways, can be blocked forhours, A national calamity sometimes by burning tyres; buildings can South Africa become targets, too. In May protesters set GDP Unemployment rate Exchange rate, rand per $ fire to more than 20 schools in Limpopo % change on a year earlier % of total labour force Inverted scale province, in an argument over local-gov- 6 30 0 ernment boundaries. South Africans have cause to be angry. 28 The economy is in dire shape: thanks 5 3 partlyto slowingsalesofiron ore and plati- 26 num, it shrankby an annualised 1.2% in the + 24 10 first quarter of this year, after growing by 0 only 0.4% in the quarter before. The rand 22 15 has lost about 15% of its value against the – dollar in the past year; over the past five 20 years it has halved. Unless there is a dra- 3 20 2000 04 08 12 16* 2000 04 08 12 16* 2000 04 08 12 16 matic change in policy or circumstance, a downgrading of the country’s sovereign Sources: IMF; Thomson Reuters *Forecast 52 Middle East and Africa The Economist June 18th 2016

2 set it on a path to a much bigger victory in A virtual turf war 2019. The going, however, will be hard. The DA’s biggest problem is that most The scramble for .africa blacks see it as a white party.It won 22% of the total vote in 2014 but only about 6% of the black electorate, a serious weakness in Lawyers in California are denying Africans theirown domain a country that is 80% black. It governs Cape Town and the province that includes it, but HE ruler-straight lines and strange been furtherdelayed by a recent ruling. it has yet to break out of that enclave, Tsquiggles ofAfrica’s borders are a At issue was a decision by the Internet where the population is mostly coloured reminder ofhow the continent was Corporation for Assigned Names and (mixed-race) or white. carved up by European powers around a Numbers (ICANN), a non-profit organisa- The party hopes that things are about to conference table in Berlin at the end of tion that manages the web’s address change. A year ago it elected its first black the 19th century—with scant regard for book, to give control ofthe name to ZA leader, Mmusi Maimane, who is only 36. In the wishes ofits inhabitants. (Several Central Registry (ZACR), a South African previous local and provincial elections he squiggles represent the shifting of a port non-profit that was one oftwo applicants helped boost the DA vote in Johannesburg or mountain into a different country.) forthe name. ZACR’s ace was not just that and the surrounding Gauteng province, Now a virtual version ofthis scramble for it had the support ofalmost three-quar- which also includes Pretoria, the capital. It Africa is taking place in a court in Califor- ters ofAfrican countries (it needed 60%) has selected a slate of black candidates to nia, over ownership ofthe continent’s but that it had been chosen by the Afri- run for mayor in most of the municipal internet address, or technically its “gener- can Union to lookafter the address book elections in August, notably Herman ic top-level domain” (gTLD). forthe continent. Mashaba, a cosmetics magnate who is one The .africa name, which would grace The other applicant, DotConnect- of South Africa’s most successful self- the end ofweb and e-mail addresses, was Africa (DCA), a Mauritius-registered made black businessmen. He hopes to be meant to have joined existing ones such non-profit, was turned down because, mayor ofJohannesburg. as .com about two years ago, when the among other things, it could not prove But the fact remains that the DA’s chair- web’s address bookwas opened up to that it had enough support and because man and two of its three deputy chairmen thousands ofnew names. These includ- several African governments objected to are white, as are many other senior offi- ed some flippant ones such as .cool or it. Although it was clearly the weaker of cials. “It’s a white party with a black face,” .rich as well as company brands such as the two applicants, DCA was thrown a scoffs Zwelinzima Vavi, a trade union .barclays. It would have joined regional legal lifeline when ICANN blundered, leader who has nonetheless turned names such as .asia or .eu that had been failing to halt its selection process when against the ANC, which he says “is neither allocated a few years earlier. But a dis- DCA appealed against the decision. pro-worker, pro-poor nor pro-business. It is pute over who should control the .africa Instead it went ahead and gave the rights only pro-Zuma.” address has dragged on foryears and to ZACR, opening the way to a further The DA insists that it is neither white string ofappeals and reconsiderations nor black, but that thing that South Africa that have finally landed before a court in most badly needs: a non-racial party. It has America. Judges there ordered ICANN steadily increased its vote share at election not to hand out the name to anyone after election since democracy arrived. while the case drags tortuously on. “We are now challenging the ANC in its At stake is more than the money that heartland, in Pretoria, in Johannesburg, in would flow to whoever gets the right to Port Elizabeth,” Mr Maimane says. “I’m an- sell .africa website addresses, but also an gry about the failure of black South Afri- important principle over who should cans in this country—but our record in the control regional names that are, in a Western Cape shows that we can deliver sense, a virtual commons. African states better services for South African people have every right to feel aggrieved that, than anyone else.” having decided who should control the Opinion on that is divided. Much of web address ofthe continent, they are as Cape Town is as sleekly prosperous as any- powerless to enforce their wishes as they where in the developed world, but it also were in Berlin in 1884. includes some of the most deprived and dangerous districts in the country. In Khayelitsha township, for instance, Virgin- ment there with the help of some of the egade ANC leader, Julius Malema. ia, a trader in the scruffy marketplace be- dozen or so tiny parties that snap at the Mr Malema’s EFF is hardly an ideal fit hind the main road complains that at the heels of the larger ones. Port Elizabeth is for the DA, which likes to project itself as age of 46 she still lives in a corrugated-iron the sixth-largest city in the country. sober, economically responsible, tough on shack with no running water, no power The really important battles will come corruption and wedded to the rule of law. and only a communal toilet. “The DA have in Tshwane, the metropolitan area centred Mr Malema, who was turfed out of the done nothing at all forus,” she says. A rival on Pretoria, the capital, and the Johannes- ANC in 2012, is none of these things. He is seller, though, disagrees. “Mmusi is young, burg municipality, the country’s largest, given to disrupting parliament with prot- he’s modern: we need new blood in this which includes South Africa’s commercial ests, once called on his supporters to “kill country, we’ve had enough of the old men capital and its far poorer (and all-black) sis- the Boer” (a reference to white South Afri- who have been stealing from us for so ter city, Soweto. No one expects the DA to cans of Dutch ancestry) and recently urged many years.” win either of these contests outright. But it them to burn down ANC offices. He was The DA’s hopes are highest in Nelson still may be able to form local administra- once indicted for corruption, which he de- Mandela Bay, the municipality that con- tions there, if only it can settle the trickiest nies; the charges never came to court. tains Port Elizabeth. The party has a strong problem the DA now faces: what to do Whereas the DA espouses liberalism, Mr chance of winning outright or coming about the Economic Freedom Fighters Malema offers revolutionary swagger. He close enough to form a mayoral govern- (EFF), a recently-formed party led by a ren- vows to nationalise minesand banks, seize1 The Economist June 18th 2016 Middle East and Africa 53

2 white land without compensation and where a dollar costs more than 360 naira. policy “sounds almost too good to be build bigger houses for the poor so that Since most importers have to get their dol- true,” says Alan Cameron, an economist at they can have sex without being disturbed lars on the black market, rather than Exotix, a bond-trading firm in London. by their children. Formed only the previ- through the tiny allocations released by “Having seen so many false dawns in the ous year, his EFF won 6.4% in the 2014 elec- the central bank, the price ofalmost every- past six months, I think many will need to tion, and is on tracknearly to double that in thing in Nigeria has soared. In May annual see the new system operating before they August. The DA’sinternal pollssayit isrun- inflation jumped to almost16%. believe it.” ningat35% orso in itstargetareas. Together, Foreign investors have pulled back, and But if Nigeria does what it says it will, it the DA and the EFF have a chance ofbreak- reserves have slumped. Factories have can expect a surge ofinvestment. Some big ing the ANC’s majorities in Johannesburg closed their rusty doors, shedding tens of private-equity firms say they have been and Pretoria. thousands of jobs. In recent weeks airlines eyeing up deals, but waiting for news on What then? Opinion within the DA is includingUnited, an American carrier,and the currency. Nigeria will have an easier divided. Going into local coalitions with Iberia, a Spanish one, have stopped flying time borrowing $1 billion abroad to help the EFF could be a disaster, alienating the to Nigeria because they cannot take mon- meet a budget deficit ofabout 2% ofGDP. A DA’s core vote and perhaps leading to cha- ey from ticket sales out of the country. second quarter of negative growth looks otic government followed by spectacular Ramming home the foolishness of the inevitable, and with it a recession. But the divorce. Mr Maimane refuses to say much policy was the revelation that the econ- worst may soon be over. 7 about it. “The time for talking about co- omy shrank in the 12 months to March, its alitions is after the election,” he says, add- first contraction in over a decade. ing that if the party were to form any with On June 15th Mr Emefiele finally relent- The Muslim Brotherhood the EFF it would insist on holding the jobs ed. Afterpattingitselfon the backfor“elim- of mayor and municipal treasurer. The DA inating speculators” (in reality only those Sibling rivalry has co-operated with the EFF on a case-by- with pals in the central bank had access to case basis in parliament, he notes. cheap dollars they could sell for a quick The DA has a golden opportunity to profit on the black market) and stoking do- showSouth Africansthatitcan govern out- mestic production (manufacturing con- CAIRO AND ISTANBUL side the Western Cape. Until it can do this, tracted by 7% in the 12 months to March), Egypt’s main Islamist movement is its chances of national office will remain the central bankexplained that it would in- tearing itselfapart slender. So a lot is at stake in August. 7 troduce a “flexible interbankexchange-rate market” starting on June 20th. If the cur- HOM does one call when one wants rency is allowed to find its natural home, it Wto talk to the Muslim Brotherhood, Nigeria floats its currency may settle somewhere between 280 and Egypt’s main Islamist group? Most of its 350 naira to the dollar, traders reckon. leaders are in prison, many of them sen- Free at last Many people were surprised by the ex- tenced to death. Othermembers are in hid- tent ofthe currency’s liberalisation after so ing from the regime of Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, much talk of the central bank introducing the general-turned-president who toppled some sort of two-tiered exchange rate. the Brotherhood-led government in 2013 LAGOS Some see the hand of the president, Mu- and then banned the group over alleged hammadu Buhari, in the new policy. Mr terrorism. Hundreds more have fled Mr A slumping economy and high inflation Buhari had previously blocked proposals Sisi’s persecution for more sympathetic prompt a much-needed reform to devalue the currency, saying it would countries such as Turkey and Qatar. ARE shelves in supermarkets and soar- “kill” the naira and hurt the poor. Yet in re- To make matters more difficult, the B ing inflation would worry any central- cent weeks he has softened his stance, and Brotherhood cannot agree on who speaks bankgovernor. ForGodwin Emefiele in Ni- is thought to have insisted that the central for it these days. Late last year Muhammad geria, the added twist is that both pro- bank should go for a fully-floating ex- Montasser, a pseudonym for the group’s blems are partly his fault. The central change rate rather than some sort of dual combative spokesman, was sacked by bank’s policy of trying to maintain the val- rate, which would only have fuelled yet some ofits leaders. But otherleaders reject- ue of the naira, Nigeria’s currency, in the more corruption. ed the move, which, they said, did not fol- face of a slump in the price of oil, which Even so, private-sector bankers are low procedure. The disagreement is symp- used to account for about 90% of the coun- wary. They fret about lingering controls. tomatic of a deep conflict inside the try’s export earnings, has failed miserably. The central bank says it will intervene in Brotherhood overitsleadership and priori- Now it is being scrapped. the market “as the need arises”. The new ties. After 88 years of religious, political Mr Emefiele tried heroically to con- and social activity, which inspired the cre- serve the country’s dwindling reserves of ation of similar groups across the region, foreign exchange. In effect, he banned the Indefensible the Brotherhood is tearing itselfapart. import of a huge range of goods, from Nigeria On one side are several members of the tinned fish to toothpicks; arbitrarily ra- Naira to US$ Consumer prices Brotherhood’s old governing council, tioned the supply of dollars from the cen- Inverted scale % increase on a year earlier known as the “guidance office”, such as tral bank to importers; and threatened to 0 16 Mahmoud Ezzat, the acting “supreme clamp down on people trading dollars on guide”, and Mahmoud Hussein, the secre- the black market. Mr Emefiele maintained 100 12 tary-general. Referred to as the “old guard”, this policy even as other oil exporters such they have prioritised the group’s survival 200 8 as Russia, Angola and Kazakhstan allowed Official and advocated a gradualist approach to their currencies to slide to make exports rate changing the state. But many members more competitive and to dampen demand 300 4 want to take a more confrontational forimports. Unofficial rate stance. They are represented by new Despite the central bank’s best efforts to 400 0 (though still old) leaders such as Ahmed 2014 15 16 defend the peg of 197 naira to the dollar, it Abdel-Rahman, who heads a Brotherhood Sources: Thomson Reuters; Haver Analytics; AbokiFX continued its slide on the black market, office in Istanbul, and Muhammad Kamal 1 54 Middle East and Africa The Economist June 18th 2016

spent learning English. HachetteAntoine has improved sales of Arabic books by using glossy covers and attractive fonts— something that has been rare for local books. But that cannot turn the tide. Piracy is another huge problem. Few Middle Eastern countries have copyright laws or the will to pursue people when they violate them. “As soon as we publish a bestseller, five or ten companies will pop up and reprint it, in paperand online,” says Rana Idriss, the director of Dar al-Adab, a Lebanese publisher that represents famous Arabic writers such as Adonis, a pseudonymousexiled Syrian poet, and Eli- asKhoury, a novelist, as well asholding the rights to foreign authors including the Ital- ian Elena Ferrante. As with so much else in the region, the turmoil since 2011 has shaken things up— mostly forthe worse. Arab authors are pro- The Brotherhood bemoans the loss of its leader ducing some cracking, if depressing, tales of imprisonment, war, the loss of relatives 2 in Egypt, whose place in the guidance of- ism, say members. When the internal de- and life in exile. But on the whole, people fice was suspended by the old guard. bate over violence heated up last year, are now reading and buying less. Iraq used Whereas some members ofthe Muslim Mahmoud Ghozlan, a member of the old to be a huge market (a Middle Eastern say- Brotherhood turned to violence after Mr guard, wrote a forceful response titled ing goes that books are written in Cairo, Sisi’s coup, the old guard publicly opposes “Our Strength is Our Peacefulness”. Sever- published in Beirut and read in Baghdad). such action—and implies that its rivals do al days later he was arrested along with a Syria and Egypt were big, too although the not. That is “totally wrong”, says Amr Dar- Brotherhood cleric who had denounced latter makes little money because books rag, a leader living in Istanbul who sides violence. Both face a possible death sen- have to be priced so cheaply. with the more confrontational wing of the tence. Members inside Egypt must wonder One bright spot for publishers is, sur- organisation. He sees the group’s “stagna- if there is any other way to confront such a prisingly, the Gulf; particularly its women. tion” under old leaders as being a force ruthless regime. 7 A growing middle class and a big commu- pushing young people towards violence. nity of bored expats are hungry for diver- Others accuse the old guard of negotiating sion. They read everything from romance with the regime, a charge it denies. Arabic publishing (especially popular in Saudi Arabia) to There are echoes of old debates over non-fiction tracts such as self-help books. how to take on Egypt’s past authoritarians, Plus de kutub, Yetpublishersface bigproblemsthere from such as Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar censorship. “It’s the big three—sex, politics Sadat. The Brotherhood’s founder, Hassan please and religion,” says Ms Idriss—the stuff a lot al-Banna, favoured violence in some cir- ofgood stories are made of. cumstances; but during its long history the BEIRUT The biggest challenge is that Arabs sim- group has mostly preferred a peaceful apply do not read much, whether about war The industryis even more troubled in proach. Even during the uprising against or peace, in English or in Arabic, despite the Middle East than elsewhere Hosni Mubarak in 2011, the Brotherhood’s having achieved near-universal literacy leaders kept a low profile. Many members, O JUDGE by Librairie Antoine in Bei- since the 1960s. Statistics are missing or though, joined the protests. The division Trut, books are faring well in the Middle misleading. But anecdotally, the situation appeared again after the coup that ousted East. The bright, airy branch in Beirut is getting worse. Mr Tyan says that, in a re- the Muslim Brotherhood government of Souks, a shopping centre, has ceiling-to- gion of 380m people, the book market is Muhammad Morsi, as many of the rank floor shelves on all three levels. Yet even if about a quarter as big as Belgium’s (a coun- and file rejected their leaders’ gradualism. the bookshop is as swish as any on a Brit- try of about 11m people). Rania Zaghir, an The new leaders say they want to re- ish or American high street, publishing in author and publisher of children’s books form the group’scentralised decision-mak- Arabic is struggling. (in Arabic only) blames poor schooling. ing process and empower women and One reason jumps out: most of An- “Education is dull and archaic, and leaves young members. But the divide does not toine’s books are in foreign languages rath- children with a bad relationship with fall neatly along generational lines. Many er than Arabic. French and English each ac- books from an early age,” she says. members are fed up with both sides, count for about 40% of sales; Arabic, for Ms Zaghir is trying to change that— which have traded accusations in public. only 20%, according to the company. “Peo- which also helps her find ways of making MrHussein, forexample, hasbeen accused ple aren’t reading as much in Arabic, not money. She knocked on the door of NGOs of taking bribes from the Turkish govern- just here but across the region,” says Emile to persuade them to buy books to distri- ment. Others invoke the blood of Brother- Tyan, Librairie Antoine’s commercial di- bute to refugees, of whom there are over hood martyrs to rally support. “The narra- rector, who also heads HachetteAntoine, a 1m in Lebanon. She encourages young tives used are very polarising,” says joint venture with a French publisher. readers by holding events, readings and Abdelrahman Ayyash, a former member. Most books in Arabic are written in a puppet shows based on her books. “You “There is no chance ofreconciliation.” formal variant that is rarely spoken, diffi- have to be creative to make sure reading is That might please Mr Sisi, who seems cult and often taught badly. Mastering it loved,” she says. “I consider myself Book- intent on crushing the group. But his ac- takes a lot of study—and that is time many woman, like Superwoman, rather than an tions are driving people towards extrem- parents think would be more usefully author or publisher.” 7 Europe The Economist June 18th 2016 55

Also in this section 56 Ukraine’s Joan of Arc 57 An Orthodox gathering 57 Fighting migrant-smuggling 58 The Balkans’ EU dreams 59 Charlemagne: The sleep of union

For daily analysis and debate on Europe, visit Economist.com/europe

Drugs in Europe “pervitin”, after the brand name of the methamphetamines distributed to Nazi Not mind-stretching enough soldiers in the second world war. Those opposed to decriminalising drug-taking have always argued that it will lead to more consumption, or that soft drugs such as cannabis are gateways to AMSTERDAM, LISBON AND PRAGUE harder drugs. Evidence for both is shaky. Liberal drug policies have spread across Europe. But some early adopters are Lifetime cannabis use—a measure of slipping behind whetheradults have evertried it—is high in N A cobbled street lined with tourist suggest they need to go further. the Czech Republic, but in the Netherlands Oshops in central Prague, a darkened Countries adopt liberal drug policies itisaround the European Union average; in storefront advertises cannabis-flavoured for different reasons. In the Netherlands Portugal it is far lower. The French, who beer and absinthe ice cream. Inside, choco- policymakers responded to a sharp in- have some of the toughest cannabis laws late bars featuring Bob Marley’s face are for crease in heroin consumption in the 1970s (users can get up to a year in jail or a hefty sale alongside “mushroom cookies” and by drawing a line between hard and soft fine), are the biggest tokers in the EU.The glass bongs. Nothing stronger is on offer. drugs. A similar heroin epidemic in Portu- lifetime prevalence of illicit drug-taking But in a country where the possession of gal in the 1980s and 1990s caused a steep among adults has been falling in Portugal, drugs is mostly tolerated, it is not hard to rise in HIV/AIDs rates, so the government from 12% in 2007 to 9.5% in 2012. Among find the real stuff elsewhere: dealers loiter decided to treat drug-taking as a public- those between the ages of 15 and 34, the in the city’s main square, and barmen sell health problem. By contrast, the shift in the year-on-year evidence is also mixed. After cannabis under the counter. Czech Republic was made quietly by re- Portugal introduced lighter controls, can- On paper, most European countries still formers after the Velvet revolution of 1989. nabis use among youngsters dropped have strict laws on drug-taking (see map). Drugs such as heroin and cocaine were al- slightly; in some other places that intro- But over the past few decades most have ways rare there; the chief hard drug reduced lighter punishments it fell steeply relaxed their enforcement of those laws, mains homemade speed known locally as (see chart, next page). fining or warning recreational drug users Even more cheeringdata come from the rather than sending them to jail. Three Incarceration public-health side. In 2014 there were just countries have led the way. In the Nether- Laws for drug possible for 40 new HIV cases associated with inject- possession possession lands, although possession of drugs is of small ing drugs in Portugal, compared with 1,482 technically illegal, cannabis has been offi- 2016 amounts of: in 2000. In the Czech Republic a mere 0.3% cially tolerated since the 1970s, and is sold any drugs ofHIV infectionsare related to drug-taking, in around 600 “coffee shops” across the other drugs compared with 30% in Italy and 6% in but not country. In the Czech Republic possession cannabis France. Figures on drug-related deaths can of small amounts of any illicit drug (one Not possible be under-reported, but in the Netherlands, gram of cocaine, around ten grams of can- Portugal and the Czech Republic, rates of nabis) was decriminalised in the 1990s. drug-induced fatality are far lower than in Portugal decriminalised the possession of countries such as Britain and Sweden that all drugs forpersonal use in 2001. have harsher drug laws. Yet over the past few years these coun- This has helped encourage others to go tries’ reforms have lost momentum, or further. A handful of American states and even slipped backwards. Most drug-policy Uruguay have legalised cannabis produc- experts consider this a shame. The reform- tion and consumption; from next year ist countries’ experiences not only show Canada will follow suit. how well liberal drug policies work; they Source: European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction But Europe’s trailblazers are falling 1 56 Europe The Economist June 18th 2016

centre; every week, a few users move into Highs and lows abstinence programmes. But there are an Share of 15- to 34-year-olds who have estimated 10,000 hard-core injecting drug used cannabis in the past year addicts in Prague, and the existing centres Selected countries that have lowered the penalty, % cannot keep up. 20 The second problem is complacency— Britain (2004) Finland (2001) meaning that politicians in countries with 15 Slovakia harm-reduction policies often think the (2005) drug problem has been solved—or even a 10 backlash against liberal reforms. In the 5 Netherlands cultivation of cannabis re- Portugal (2001) Greece (2003) mains illegal and much of the country’s 0 production is done by organised criminals. -10-8-6-4-2024681013 In recent years some municipalities have Years before/after legal change tried to force coffee shops to serve only res- Source: European Monitoring Centre for idents with Dutch ID cards to prevent the Drugs and Drug Addiction influx offoreign drug-takers, but the policy has largely failed. In Portugal and the 2 back. One reason is the squeeze on public Czech Republic many who work with finances. In Portugal in 2012, in the throes drug-takers worry that, now that most of ofan EU and IMF bail-out, the government them are off the streets, non-users will re- closed the autonomous drug agency and sent public funds being spent on them. merged its staff of 1,700 with the national This is a bad time to be turning back the health service—a move which was criti- clock. In America and elsewhere, opioid More popular than the president cised by specialists as potentially weaken- consumption has reached epidemic levels, ing harm-reduction services. In the Czech largely because of overprescription of trooper with Ukrainian peacekeepers in Republiccash forprevention services, such painkillers. Europe has not seen such a re- Iraq, and later became the first female pilot as school programmes, fell from €2.5m in surgence yet, though there are some wor- in Ukraine’s air force. When protests broke 2010 to €1.5m in 2014, and funds for harm rying signs. European countries remain out in Kiev in late 2013, Ms Savchenko be- reduction, such as needle exchanges, fellin strangely divided over drug policy, ignor- gan going there on weekends from her 2011. Money for treatment facilities and so- ing the continent’s successes. Few coun- base in western Ukraine. What drew her to bering-up stations was also trimmed. tries are pushing for new reforms, says the Maidan were not calls for European in- Those fundsare sorelyneeded. In a sub- TomBlickman, a drug-policy expert in Am- tegration but anger that the then president, urb ofPrague, the city’slargestdrugcontact sterdam. In Europe, where thanks to open Viktor Yanukovych, had sent riot police to centre offers a needle-exchange system, borders each country’s policies affect its attackhis own people. mostly for methamphetamine addicts. neighbours, “everyone is keeping each After Mr Yanukovych fled and fighting With pictures of Gandhi and Sid Vicious other in check,” he says. This results in erupted in eastern Ukraine, Ms Savchenko on the walls, the place looks a little like a harsh (but spottily implemented) penal- decided, like many at the time, to make for youth hostel. Each day around 100 people ties in some places, looser laws elsewhere the front line on her own. She joined up visit and around 3,500 needles are ex- and a sense that Europe is no longera place with the Aidar Battalion, a volunteer force changed, says David Pesek, who runs the where policymakers can take risks. 7 that would later become notorious for human-rights abuses. In June 2014 she was taken prisoner during a botched mission, Nadia Savchenko smuggled into Russia and arrested for al- legedly directing artillery fire that killed The maid of Kiev two Russian television journalists. Her defiance of her captors made her a cause célèbre. In the autumn of 2014 political parties recruited her to join Ukraine’s KIEV parliament. Ms Savchenko did not take the offersseriously(“I neverexpected to return She was a soldier, a pilot and a prisonerin Russia. Now she is an MP, and a force in alive”), but agreed to join the party of a for- Ukrainian politics mer prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, TTHREE o’clockin the morningon May President” Facebook groups, and she has out of “female solidarity”. After she was A25th, guards roused Nadia Savchenko not demurred: “If you want me to be your elected, her trial became a diplomatic in her prison cell in southern Russia, told president,” she said at herfirst press confer- flashpoint, and her eventual release was her to pack her things and whisked her to ence, “I will become the president.” Rus- the product of high-level international ne- an airport. “I didn’t know if I was flying to sian commentators have gleefully predict- gotiations. (In return for Ms Savchenko, Ukraine or to Siberia,” says the Ukrainian ed she might bring down Mr Poroshenko Ukraine freed two Russian soldiers cap- military pilot, who spent nearly two years and his government. Yet the 35-year-old Ms tured in eastern Ukraine last year.) in Russian captivity on fabricated charges. Savchenko is neither saviour nor saboteur; During her first weeks back, she has dis- Only when she saw yellow and blue she is a soldier in an unexpected position. played an independent streak and a tire- stripes on the plane did she realise that she Revolutions often thrust people into less work ethic. She admits that she knows was heading home. unforeseen roles, but few are forced to little about economics or world affairs: Ms Savchenko descended on Ukraine a make leaps as audacious as Ms Sav- “I’ve never been to Europe; I’ve only been ready-made heroine. She tops polls as the chenko’s. Born in Kiev, she initially studied abroad at war in Iraq, and in prison in Rus- most trusted politician in the country, far design (she passed the time in prison with sia.” She says she gets along best with a above the president, Petro Poroshenko. origami). But childhood dreams of flying group of young reformist MPs who call Supporters have created “Savchenko for led her to the army. She served as a para- themselves the “EuroOptimists”. Yet she 1 The Economist June 18th 2016 Europe 57

Migrant-smuggling Orthodox Christian summit The autumn of the patriarchs Tracking traffickers Amid shrieking family rows, the Christian east strives to find its voice ROME N THE early centuries ofeastern Chris- Ukrainian Orthodox church; Moscow, Catching people-smugglers is hard, tian history,when doctrines were which now oversees the biggest church I convicting them even harder hammered out at seven disputatious structure in Ukraine, would abhor that. bishops’ councils, theological arguments The betting was that Moscow’s repre- HAT’S in a name? For an Eritrean were on everyone’s mind. As one ac- sentatives might make an appearance in Wman hauled before a judge in Paler- count ofConstantinople put it: “Askthe Crete without taking part in the council. mo, Sicily, on June 10th, the answer could price ofbread, and you are told that the As the depleted council began, Met- be many years in an Italian jail. If, as he Father is greater than the Son; ask about ropolitan Kallistos Ware (also an emer- claims, he is Medhanie Tesfamariam your bath, and you are told the Son was itus professor at Oxford University) said Berhe, he is a refugee and a victim of mis- made out ofnothing.” he still hoped it could avoid being mired taken identity. But if, as the prosecution This month, as the 270th Patriarch of in Orthodoxy’s internal woes and “speak maintains, he is Medhanie Yehdego Me- Constantinople, Orthodoxy’s first among in a firm, prophetic voice” to humanity. red, then—according to British and Italian equals, flew to Crete to convene the first He thought the council could be the first investigators—he is a ruthless criminal, one full-blown gathering ofthe world’s Or- in a series ofglobal Orthodox gatherings ofthe masterminds behind the best-organ- thodox bishops for many centuries rather than a once-in-a-millennium affair. ised route funnelling migrants from Africa (some would say nearly1,300 years), he One ofthe problems, though, is that to Europe. Britain’s National Crime Agen- hoped fora calmer spirit. The intention Orthodoxy’s own vocabulary (including cy (NCA) said it had tracked him to the Su- was forthe leaders ofthe14 churches the refusal ofsome Orthodox to use the danese capital, Khartoum, where he was which make up global Orthodox Chris- word “church” ofany organisations but arrested on May 24th. tianity to send a message ofencourage- their own) is now arcane to a world Mr Mered (or Mr Berhe) was extradited ment and concern, not only about theol- where the Trinity has ceased to be bath- to Italy and jailed. Prosecutors in Sicily, ogy but about earthly woes from time conversation. Outsiders may still be who first identified Mr Mered as a key fig- pollution to inequality. fascinated by the spirit ofOrthodox ure in the migrant-smuggling business, But before the Holy and Great Council Christianity,as expressed through cultur- want him tried on charges of running an was due to open on June16th, a consen- al mediums like art or liturgical chants. operation in 2013 that ended in the deaths sus which had been carefully built by But when the Orthodox speakin prose, of359 people, when a boat capsized off the Patriarch Bartholomew,an ethnic Greek even sympathetic listeners find them Italian island of Lampedusa. Yet defence who lives in Istanbul, began to fray.On hard to understand. witnesses say the jailed man fled Eritrea various grounds, the patriarchates of forSudan in the hope ofjoiningrelatives in Bulgaria, Georgia and Antioch (which is Europe or America. The defendant’s coun- based in Syria) pulled out. Antioch is at sel has asked the court for a scientific com- odds with the Patriarchate ofJerusalem parison ofhis client’s voice with that of Mr over who has jurisdiction over a handful Mered, who was wiretapped by Italian po- offaithful in Qatar. The Patriarchate of lice in 2014. Moscow,the largest, said it too would opt The arrest of migrant-smugglers is not out unless the absentees could be wooed unusual. According to the Italian interior back. It sought an emergency session to ministry, more than 500 were taken into revise the agenda, or a postponement. custody in each of the past two years, hav- The hosts said they were “aston- ing been discovered escorting irregular mi- ished”. In liberal-minded church circles grants across the Mediterranean. But those that approve ofBartholomew’s bridge- detained were minor players in an illegal building diplomacy,there were fears that business with an annual turnover which Moscow was egging on the rejectionists. the European border agency, Frontex, puts But theological niceties aside, Moscow at €4 billion ($4.5 billion). has geopolitical reasons to avoid a rup- The real challenge has long been to dis- ture with Constantinople. Many Ukrai- rupt the organisers. That is what makes the nians want Patriarch Bartholomew to case in Palermo so important: it is either a bless the existence ofan independent farce, or the most important breakthrough so farin the war on migrant-smuggling. The difficulties of bringing a people- 2 also took a trip back to the front, donning a those “who died for Ukraine on Maidan” smuggling kingpin to book are immense. flak jacket alongside Dmytro Yarosh, a far- and in Donbass, and suggested negotiating Peter Roberts of the Royal United Services right nationalist leader. (Ms Savchenko’s directly with the leaders of the separatist Institute, a think-tank, has studied the views on what makes someone a Ukrai- republics to free prisoners—a position that smugglers’ methods. He says their net- nian—“it’sin the geneticcode ofa people”— would be anathema for most Ukrainian works involve up to 25 layers of intermedi- sound highly nationalistic.) politicians. She has come out against the aries and facilitators, among them an ever- If anything, the hopes pinned on Ms Minsk peace agreements in their current changing cast of lorry drivers, travel Savchenko point not so much to her pro- form, putting her at odds with Mr Porosh- agents, money changers, people with ac- mise but to Ukraine’s dearth of leaders. enko. Yet she says it is too early for her to cess to safe houses and fishermen, along Aware of how risky politics can be, she chide the president: “In order to criticise with bribeable officials, soldiers and po- seems keen not to miss herchance. She has someone, you have to do something your- lice officers. In Libya they also involve the told parliament she will not let them forget selffirst.” 7 warring militias through whose territory 1 58 Europe The Economist June 18th 2016

2 the migrants pass. Identifying individuals The involvement of the NCA suggests government protests. Aleksandar Vucic, is difficult. “You have to be on the ground, Britain has moved the investigation of mi- the prime minister-designate, says Serbia and there are going to be a lot of dead grant smuggling up its agenda. The same aims to join the union, but relations with ends,” says Mr Roberts. may be true of France, which is concerned Brussels have been frosty. In recent years almost all the migrants about links between the trade in human The country which has made the most reaching Italy have set off from the Libyan beings, terrorist funding and arms traffick- progress towards joining the EU is Monte- coast. Some, notably Bangladeshis, came ing. Yet experts say much still needs to be negro. According to Daliborka Uljarevic, a to workin Libya butdecided thatthe riskof done. No one European agency is responsi- civic activist, the EU integration process is staying in a country that has descended ble for fighting the people-smugglers. That the most powerful motor of reform in the into anarchy was greater than that of cross- might be worth changing. 7 region. But, she adds, while her country ing the Mediterranean in a fragile boat. Ac- has assiduously changed its laws to meet cording to Frontex, the others—asylum- EU requirements, it is only fitfully applying seekers and economic migrants—arrived The Balkans’ EU dreams them: “When it comes to the rule of law, from east Africa via Sudan, or from west then we are failing.” This applies in vary- Africa through Niger. Applications ing degrees across the Balkans. The transit areas include violent places For all its shortcomings, the EU integra- where a Western investigator would be deferred tion process has done much good. Some dangerously conspicuous and where offi- changes are diplomatic: Serbia’s relation- cials are often in the pay of the smugglers. BRUSSELS AND BUDVA ship with Kosovo, which declared inde- One theory about the latest operation is pendence from it in 2008, has been trans- A region still enthusiastic about the that Sudanese officials might have pointed formed by EU-led talks, although many of European Union is being rebuffed investigators to the wrong man. Against the agreements negotiated have not yet this background, and given that terrorism OR all the Euroscepticism that has been implemented. Others have to do has been a higher priority for many Euro- Fswept across the continent in recent with governance. In Montenegro one of pean police forces and intelligence agen- years, there is one region where majorities the country’s most powerful figures was cies, it is easy to understand why the war still long to join the European Union: the convicted last month of corruption in his on migrant-smugglers has so far yielded western Balkans. From Sarajevo to Skopje, hometown of Budva; several associates modest results. governments all want in. Even Serbs, who were arrested with him. They may simply The operation against Mr Mered shows resented European countries’ role in the be scapegoats intended to show the EU that could now be changing. “For the first wars of former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, that the country is serious about tackling time, they are using the tools they have,” now want to join their club: polls show a corruption. But it is also possible that real says Kristina Touzenis of the International plurality would vote for accession, though change is afoot. Organisation for Migration. Chief among support has declined in recent years. What is clear is that the western Balkan these is the UN Convention against Trans- But although the Balkans may be eager states, an enclave surrounded by the EU, national Organised Crime, which came to join the EU, the converse is not necessar- need friends. If the EU is too preoccupied into force in 2003. It allows states to prose- ily true. The region has slipped “below the by its own problems to accept them, Russia cute activities that took place abroad, but radar and is neglected”, worries Tanja Mis- is ready to step in. Serbia is negotiating a were carried out with a view to commit- cevic, Serbia’s chief accession negotiator. trade agreement with the Russian-domin- ting a crime on their territory. And while Brussels has no vision forthe Balkans. And ated Eurasian Economic Union. In a unauthorised immigration is not a crimi- whatever the result of Britain’s Brexit refer- planned visit to Serbia, Dmitry Medvedev, nal offence in most countries, facilitating it endum, the tensions it has unleashed may the Russian prime minister, will discuss ex- forgain is. put any further EU enlargement on indefi- panding a Russian-funded humanitarian nite hold. emergency centre to include an aban- Most Balkan countries that want to join doned airport in the country’s north. the club are doingwell atfulfilling the crite- Western officials fear that Russia’s real ria. Officials in Brussels list many advances aim islessto help putoutforestfires than to made by Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Bos- create a potential military airbase. If the nia and Albania. (Macedonia isgoingback- EU’s Balkan enlargement process becomes wards.) The glass is “more than half full”, nothing more than words, others will says an EU official. The union’s member move in to fill the political and economic states, however, are increasingly sceptical vacuum, to Europe’s disadvantage. 7 about admitting new members. Balkan governments were alarmed by Dutch vot- AUSTRIA EU members EU HUNGARY ers’ rejection of an association agree- Candidates: ment with Ukraine in April. What if their EU SLOVENIA Official countries meet all of the ’s arduous re- Potential quirements, only to have accession scup- C Belgrade R ROMANIA pered by a referendum in one state? O A EU T BOSNIA Meanwhile, says Ms Miscevic, the I A has been losing its credibility in the region. A SERBIA d Sarajevo r BULGARIA Macedonia has been in a deep political cri- i a sis for more than a year; a deal negotiated t Pristina i Podgorica EU c byan mission did notstick, and an exas- KOSOVO S e Budva a perated Germany is now sending its own Skopje envoy to sort out the mess. Kosovo’s gov- ITALY MONTE- Tirana MACEDONIA ernment has tried to curb the powers of NEGRO EU ALBANIA the ’s police and justice mission in the GREECE country. In Serbia pro-government media 150 km Kingpin or pawn? have accused the EU of being behind anti- The Economist June 18th 2016 Europe 59 Charlemagne The sleep of union

Brexit will not kill European Utopianism. It was already dead Then again, the federalists’ strength has always been exaggerated, especially in Britain. The history of the EU is not, as supporters and detractors sometimes suggest, a Whiggish march towards ever-closer union, marked by a steady accretion of powers and a withering of the nation-state. As described in “The Euro- pean Union: ACitizen’s Guide”, a provocative new bookby Chris Bickerton, a Cambridge academic, the EU’s integration has pro- ceeded in fits and starts, consumed by crises like de Gaulle’s “empty chair” of1965, or even reversals, like the failed attempt to construct a west European army in the early1950s. The great push came in the 1980s, when Jacques Delors, a French Socialist in charge ofthe European Commission, joined forces with Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s right-wing prime minister, to create the single market, a product ofa peculiar alliance forged in unusual times. It has been a bumpy ride since then. The single currency and the Schengen system of open borders are the most potent symbols of European integration. But each has been sorely tested by crises that have set nation against nation. Indeed, in recent years, as the EU has become largely a crisis-management forum, power has flowed back from Brussels institutions to national governments, particularly to a visibly reluctant Germany. “More Eu- HAT a difference a couple of opinion polls make. Few rope,” once the clarion call for federalists across the continent, Wbrows in Brussels have remained unfurrowed by the de- now carries the quaint ringofan ancient huntingcry. Nightmares clining fortunes of the campaign to keep Britain inside the Euro- long ago replaced dreams as the nocturnal currency ofBrussels. pean Union. The prospect ofBrexit, which to the panjandrums of The EU’s legislative machinery has largely been halted during the EU was always such a patent absurdity that it could never the referendum campaign, lest it rouse Britain’s fearsome tab- come to pass, has suddenly roared into plain view. “We’re reach- loids to anger over kettle regulation or another matter of vital na- ing the point ofno return,” says one diplomat. tional interest. It will soon kick back into gear, but at nothing like Some Europeans have already begun to draw harsh lessons the pace of previous eras. Sometimes lost in the Brexit debate is from the British experience. Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s fi- the fact that the EU simply does a lot less these days. Much to the nance minister and a decades-long champion of European inte- chagrin of green groups and other NGOs, the commission has gration, says that a Brexit, or even a narrow vote to “Bremain”, slashed its number of legislative proposals. The increasing num- would be a warning to the EU “not to continue with business as ber of empty “resolutions” issued by the European Parliament usual”. Donald Tusk, who as president of the European Council tells you something about the lightening workload of MEPs. The chairs meetings of EU leaders in Brussels, argues that Utopian EU budget is tiny—around 1% ofGDP—and likely to remain so. The calls for a federal Europe are hastening the EU’s disintegration. Brexiteers that rail against the insatiable appetites of Brussels are Even Jean-Claude Juncker, the increasingly absent president of pushing at an open door. the European Commission (the bit of the EU that proposes laws) and a dyed-in-the-wool federalist, admits that the EU has become Can’t live with the EU, can’t live without it a meddlesome presence in the lives ofits citizens. Britain is not in the euro, and has little to do with EU migration Such debates will have no effect on the British referendum: policy. But the rest of Europe faces a conundrum: to prevent cri- the campaign is now locked into a domestic political logic that in- ses, it needs more ofthe centralisation that Eurosceptics hate. The tersects only occasionally with reality. But in wider Europe they euro zone, particularly the banking union, remains half-built and will resonate beyond June 23rd, regardless of the vote’s outcome. may not withstand another financial crisis. The layers of dust Britain’s is not the only European ruling class to have been grow thicker on last year’s Five Presidents’ Report, a stalled road shocked by a jolt of populist rage. Governments in Denmark and map for euro-zone integration. On migration, last year’s drama the Netherlands have lately lost referendums on EU matters; oth- exposed the weakness of a borderless space with wildly varying ers, notably in France, conduct EU policy with at least one eye on asylum policies. Naval patrols and foreign deals can go only so their own Eurosceptic forces. Belatedly, and partially, Brussels is far; in time the EU will have to integrate its asylum policies. waking up to the threat. Do notexpectdrasticaction ifBritain votesto leave. The differ- A Brexit might not lead to a cascade of membership referen- ences between creditors and debtors that have long stymied dums, but it would be a huge fillip to anti-EU forces elsewhere, euro-zone integration are as entrenched as ever: Germany firmly not least by demonstrating that membership is reversible. (This is opposes a common deposit-insurance scheme, for example. Up- one reason why other EU countries would offer Britain a lousy coming elections in France and Germany will stay politicians’ trade deal if it votes to leave.) Post-Brexit, Eurosceptic govern- hands for at least 18 months. If Brexit unleashes financial chaos ments seeking concessions from the EU could also threaten to the euro zone will, as always, turn first to the European Central quit the club. Mainstream politicians would see political mileage Bank. Still, whetherornotBritain remains, the dilemma confront- in taking on Brussels: recent polls show anti-EU sentiment growing the EU is growing more acute. To see off the next crisis, the ing all over Europe. All this would give pause to the centralisers train of integration will have to keep moving. But ever more vot- Mr Tuskdecries. ers are standing athwart the locomotive, yelling “Stop!” 7 60 Britain The Economist June 18th 2016

Also in this section 61 Scotland awaits Donald Trump 61 The demise of BHS 62 Bagehot: The Nigel Farage Show

For daily analysis and debate on Britain, visit Economist.com/britain

Retailers in trouble trends will survive; Sir Ian Cheshire, the new chairman ofDebenhams department High noon on the high street stores, for example, says that he could be operating on a very different business model within just ten years. But many will probably not—the BRC has predicted that thousands of shops and almost 1m retail jobs could go by 2025. Many shops are struggling to survive in Britain’s fast-changing and ruthlessly So what is going on? One profound competitive marketplace change is that consumers now want to HE original Hard Rock Café still occu- ment stores. But these two are only the spend their money on “experiences”, such Tpiesthe same incongruousspotin May- most visible of the crop. By May there had as eating out, holidays, cinema or going to fair, a posh district of London, that it did in been 14, affecting 989 stores and over the gym, rather than products such as 1971, when itopened. Remarkably, the Hard 20,000 employees, already more than in clothes or food—hence the differing for- Rockhas survived the vagaries ofpop fash- the whole of2015. Ifthe currentrate of attri- tunes of the restaurant and retail business- ion and still pulls in a youthful mix oftour- tion is kept up, this could be the worst year es at the Hard Rock Café. Figures show a ists and locals to eat, buy T-shirts and since 2012, when the economy was still strong rise in spending on recreation and swoon over John Lennon’s glasses. Ham- struggling to come out of recession. Fur- culture in the first nine months of last year, ish Dodds, its worldwide boss, says that thermore, all this has been happening as compared, for instance, with the fall in the restaurant business is doing fine. The disposable household income has been spending on food and drink. At Deben- retail side, however, is distinctly “soggy”. rising, with median household income hams two of the best performers now are This is a common refrain now on Brit- and GDP per person recovering last year to swimwear and holidays, bought from in- ain’s high streets, although other retail ex- pre-recession levels. house travel shops. ecutives will use words such as disap- Fearofa Brexithasprobablydampened Online shopping is also transforming pointing or weak. The first few months of consumer spending in the very short term, the high street. Consumers, especially the this year were unseasonably poor, with a but retailers acknowledge that deeper sec- young, now expect “omnichannel” retail- slight pickup in May. But that small im- ular trends are at work that will reshape ing, to be able to switch seamlessly be- provement cannot mask the more omi- the British high street for ever, and quickly. tween purchasing on their laptops, on nous longer-term trend, that since The nimble ones who adapt to these their mobiles and in bricks-and-mortar mid-2014, according to the British Retail stores. Retailers that are slow to develop a Consortium (BRC), a trade group, sales good online offering will struggle, or growth has been slowing. Non-food sales Everything must go down worse. Indeed, appearing before a parlia- have been particularly worrying (see Value of non-food sales, 3-month moving average mentary committee on June 15th, SirPhilip chart), and some sectors, such as clothing, % change on a year earlier Green, the former boss of BHS, highlighted have been contracting. BDO, an accountan- 5 the store’s slowness to embrace the inter- cy firm, runs a High-Street Sales Tracker Total net as the reason for its recent collapse (see that measures the performance ofabout 85 4 next article). high-street chains. This recorded the big- 3 Britain’s struggling supermarkets, such gest drop in sales in April since the depths as Tesco, have done reasonably well on- 2 ofthe recession in 2009, and overall BDO’s line, but they now face a new challenge figures have shown a decline since early 1 from AmazonFresh, a potentially danger- Like-for-like + 2015. 0 ousrival, which launched on June 9th. This Partly as a consequence, there have – is a British version of the online giant’s been some prominent high-street casual- 1 fresh-food service in America. The initial 2012 13 14 15 16 ties this year, such as Austin Reed, a mens- roll-out has been confined to parts of Lon- Source: BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor May 2016 wear brand, and BHS, a chain of depart- don, but shoppers will be able to choose 1 The Economist June 18th 2016 Britain 61

2 from a surprisingly large range ofproducts, the discount end (such as Primark) and in The demise of BHS including about 20,000 items. specialist brands. The rest are “getting Britain’s online grocery market was hammered”. Equally,retailers could still do Green sees red worth £8.6 billion ($12.2 billion) last year, more to stay in touch with their increasing- and is expected to grow to £15 billion by ly fickle customers, argues Fiona Davis of 2020, so AmazonFresh’s move had been Women in Retail, a lobby group. It pub- widely expected. Responding to it, how- lished research on June 7th, in conjunction ever,will cost supermarkets yet more mon- with Elixirr, a consultancy, showing that MPs learn more about showbiz than ey in a very competitive environment, despite the fact that 85% of all retail pur- business from the formerhead ofBHS where market share is often maintained by chases are made or influenced by women, slashing prices. That’s nice for customers, only 20% of executive teams and only 10% T WAS billed as the heavyweight con- who have been enjoying shop-price defla- of executive boards are female. The latter Ifrontation of the season. In one corner, tion, but means that companies will strain figures were based on a survey of all retail- Sir Philip Green, the perma-tanned billion- to be profitable. The government has add- ers in the FTSE 350. aire king of retail, who controlled BHS, a ed to the pressure on retail margins by in- This might explain, argues Ms Davis, chain of department stores, for15 years un- troducinga “livingwage”, which came into why fashion stores, in particular, lose their til last year, collecting £600m ($850m) in effect on April 1st, and a levy to pay for ap- way. “Having more women around the dividends, rent and interest payments prenticeships. board table means you have more custom- while he was at the helm before selling it To survive at all, retailers have to be ers around the table,” she argues. Indeed, for £1 to a former bankrupt and seeing it clearer than ever about who their custom- more diversity in general would help. collapse soon afterwards. In the other, ers are. Sir Ian argues that it is possible to Many retailers have not kept up with Brit- Frank Field, Labour MP, soft-spoken pen- make money from clothes, but only in cer- ain’s evolving consumer market, and the sions expert and chair of a parliamentary tain precise categories; at the high end, at results are all too evident. 7 committee investigating BHS’s failure. There was plenty of trash-talk before- hand. Sir Philip had demanded the resig- Trump comes to Britain nation of a “biased” Mr Field. The Labour politician had said he would laugh at any Waiting for Donald suggestion that the Monaco-based capital- ABERDEEN ist could offer less than £600m to plug BHS’s pensions gap. Other MPs had de- Scotland prepares to welcome a controversial investor manded that Sir Philip be stripped of his HE MacLeod House and Lodge, just years there have been plans to build knighthood. No one was sure whether he Toutside Aberdeen, is what a poor man turbines in the sea near to the golf course. would even turn up for the bout. When he might imagine a rich man’s hotel to look Mr Trump’sinterests dovetail with those did, on June 15th, it was a six-hour wrangle like. Owned by Donald Trump, many of ofthe activists: he fears the turbines will on the ropes with few knockout punches. its fittings—the lamps, the bed-covers, the spoil the views from his hotel. Sir Philip prefaced many of his replies radiators—are golden. In 2012 he appeared in front ofa Scot- “with due respect”, or “respectfully, sir”, The cleaners are making everything tish parliamentary committee. The na- clearly suggesting that in fact he had very even shinier in anticipation ofthe arrival tion’s pro-wind policy led to other people little respect for any of his parliamentary ofthe man himself, who is expected in “laughing at what Scotland is doing”, he interrogators. At one point he demanded Scotland on June 23rd. Mr Trump’s visit said, while the turbines themselves were that an MP stop staring at him as it was coincides with Britain’s referendum on “made in China” who then got Scotland “really disturbing”. By turns playing the the EU; he says he is coming forthe offi- to pay it “a lot ofmoney”. Last year the victim and the ingenu, he castigated anoth- cial reopening ofanother ofhis hotels, in Supreme Court ruled against him, how- er MP for rudeness, responding “I don’t re- Ayrshire. ever, and the turbines will go ahead. Mr member” to manyquestions. In all, it wasa Many Scots are not looking forward to Trumphimselfis likely to continue gener- masterclass in bluster, with little explana- hosting Mr Trump, whose mother was ating controversy,at home and abroad. tion of how a very successful retailer actu- born on the tiny Isle ofLewis in the Outer ally runs any of his businesses, or of what Hebrides. Nicola Sturgeon, the first min- went wrong at BHS. “Nothing is more sad ister, is likely to avoid meeting him. Or- than how this has ended,” he proffered. ganisers ofthe Scottish Open golftourna- Sir Philip did, however, promise that he ment were rumoured to be considering would sort out BHS’s pension fund, which his hotel as their venue for2017, but have was in surplus when he bought the busi- announced they are going elsewhere. In ness in 2000 but is now £571m in deficit. January members ofBritain’s Parliament Thiswasthe main reason whyhe had been spent three hours trashing him, as they hauled before the committee. Although he debated whether to try to ban him from said he did not know how that deficit had the country (they decided not to). come about, he accepted blame for the Despite all this, Mr Trump has a few “mess” that now affects 20,000 people in cautious fans around Aberdeen. The golf the scheme. He said his plan would offer course attached to the hotel is “really BHS pensioners a “better outcome” than tough to play”, enthuses one local golfer. compensation available from the Pension In the Beachside Coffee Shop in nearby Protection Fund, the scheme that helps fi- Balmedie, another says Mr Trump’s nance pensions after company insolven- investments have drawn tourists, bene- cies. He offered no details. Mr Field will no fiting the local economy. doubt be following up on Sir Philip’s Most ofall, though, Mr Trumphas pledges, especially as it seems the pen- become an ally ofconservationists. For A wood in the rough sions regulator has, as yet, also received no details ofany resolution. 7 62 Britain The Economist June 18th 2016 Bagehot The Nigel Farage Show

Parochial and vacuous, Britain’s dismal referendum campaign has been a populist’s dream scorned (“I think people in this country have had enough of experts,” huffs Michael Gove, the pro-Leave justice secretary). Basic facts have fallen by the wayside: Mr Cameron claims Brexit would help Islamic State; Leave implies Turkey, with its 77m Mus- lims, is about to join the EU. The complicated reality of an evolving union and Britain’s relationship with it has been ignored. Instead that chant on Westminster Bridge—“We want our country back!”—has echoed through the campaign. Back from whom? JohnnyForeigner, mostly, aswell asa conniving, cartoon- ishly evil establishment; at a recent Leave event your columnist witnessed Tories and Kippers urge their supporters to take pens into the pollingbooth on June 23rd to prevent the intelligence services from doctoring their votes. The referendum has been marked by a pin-striped nihilism dressed up as common sense. Thus it is easy to forget that it was meant to reunite the Tory tribe. Mr Cameron issued his pledge in 2013 to “settle” the Europe issue. Today that aspiration reads like a joke. As trawlermen outside the Palace ofWestminster came alongside Sir Bob’s craft and attempted to board it (prompting an intervention from policemen in a speedboat), inside the House ofCommonsMrCameron was skirmishing with his own buccaneering MPs. David Nuttall, ITLER did it with gas! Merkel does it with paperwork!” one of the 131 (of 330) to back Brexit, pointedly asked when the “HFrom the bow of his trawler, bespangled with anti-EU prime minister would meet his pledge to cut net immigration to banners and bobbing on the grey Thames outside the Houses of tens ofthousands (from over 300,000 today). Parliament, a rubicund fisherman bellowed at the crowds on The mood in the Conservative base is even more vitriolic. Westminster Bridge. Baffled tourists posed for selfies as he ranted Most members want to quit the EU. Many of them hold their in the background. Leave supporters cheered and babbled: leader in utter contempt following a campaign in which they be- “When will Nigel arrive?” Word rippled through the assembly lieve he has betrayed his principles and abused his position. On that the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), along with June 12th yourcolumnist attended a pro-Brexit Toryrally in Leigh- his pro-Brexit flotilla of fishing boats, had been held up at Tower on-Sea, in Essex, organised by David Amess, the local MP. The Bridge. Yet another establishment stitch-up. “We want our coun- star speaker was Ann Widdecombe, the sturdy doyenne of the try back!” they chanted. Conservative right, who paraded about the hall badmouthing Then it was glimpsed around the bend in the Thames: a Dun- the prime minister: “The claims Cameron has been making do kirk of trawlers, barges and dinghies, buzzed by speedboats with not stand up!” she trilled, to applause and shouts of“hear, hear!” “In” flags (“Cameron paid them,” a matronly Middle England To some extent the referendum has revealed things that were type informed Bagehot as others cried “Traitors!”) and a cruiser alreadypresent: the growingvoid between cosmopolitan and na- from which Sir Bob Geldof, an ageing Irish rocker, yelled “Farage! tivistpartsofthe country, the diminishingfaith in politics, the rise You’re a fraud!” Last of all came the flagship, emitting a boozy of populism, the inadequacy of the left-right partisan spectrum whiff as, to loud cheers, it swooshed under the bridge. Holding in an age when open-closed is a more salient divide. Yet it is hard court on deck, surrounded by cameras and wine-slurping, blazer- not to conclude that the campaign has exacerbated all of these wearing “Kippers”, was the man himself: a male Britannia with a trends. Polls suggest that trust in senior politicians of all stripes ciggy between his fingers and a smirk across his face. This was has fallen. And that is just the start. If Remain wins on June 23rd, “The Nigel Farage Show”, and he knew it. Brexiteers will tell voters they were conned. If Leave wins, Mr Such has been Britain’s EU referendum. David Cameron first Cameron will go and his successor will negotiate a Brexit that promised the vote in 2013, spooked byUKIP’ssuccessin local elec- does not remotely resemble the promises ofthe Leave campaign, tions and importuned by UKIP-inclined MPs on his Conservative which trades on the lie that Britain can have full access to the benches. The result has been an unedifying campaign that has European single market without being bound by its regulations both bolstered MrFarage and carried his imprint. It has been divi- and free-movement rules. sive, misleading, unburdened by facts and prone to personality politics and gimmicks. What might have been a hard-nosed de- The neverendum never ends bate about Britain’s future, about the pros and cons of EU mem- Either way, politics is coarsened. Voters will believe their leaders bership, has turned into a poisonous row about the merits of less. Short of a total reconfiguration of the party-political land- what is ultimately Mr Farage’s vision ofEngland: a hazy confabu- scape (possible but unlikely), the existing Westminster outfits lation of content without modernity; of warm beer, bowler hats, will look increasingly at odds with political reality. The currency faces blackened by coal dust; of bread-and-dripping, fish-and- of facts will be debased, that of stunts inflated, that of conviction chips, hope-and-glory. sidelined. It will be de rigueur to question an opponent’s motives The outcome has been a contest with the logical architecture before hisarguments, to sneeratexperts, prefervolume to accura- ofan Escherdrawing: Remain and (in particular) Leave issuing as- cy and disparage concession, compromise and moderation. Mr sertions that double back on themselves, Möbius-strip argu- Farage’s style of politics has defined this referendum. It will live ments that lead everywhere and nowhere. Knowledge has been on in the muscle memory ofthe nation. 7 International The Economist June 18th 2016 63

Also in this section 64 Why American boys are circumcised

Female genital cutting The limited data that exist suggest that FGM is becoming less common (see chart 2 The unkindest cut on next page) and may be shifting to less harmful forms. Thisisthankspartlyto education and urbanisation, and partly to decades ofcampaigning by the UN and activists publicising the harms. Progress, DJIBOUTI AND JAKARTA however, is slow: most girls in Somalia and Djibouti, for example, will probably see A rite ofpassage ranges from symbolic to awful. Where should the line be drawn? their daughters cut, too. T a midwife’s clinic in Jakarta, Indone- even though the Koran does not mention One approach is to try to persuade en- Asia’s capital, services for baby girls init. Itiscommonlybelieved to “tame” a girl’s tire villages to pledge publicly that they are clude an incision with a needle to the fold sexual drive—ensuring that she remains a abandoning the practice. In many coun- of skin above the clitoris. The clinic’s laser, virgin until marriage and is faithful to her tries, UNICEF has recruited volunteers to popular with well-off clients, is out of ac- husband. A common myth in Sudan is that explain the risks to women. Mariam Mo- tion. Other midwives prefera needle-prick an uncut clitoris will grow into a third leg. hamed is a volunteer in Djibouti. Only the to draw a drop of blood. Some just dab on FGM isone ofthe toughestsocial norms youngest of her four daughters has not iodine. About halfofIndonesian girls have to change because a girl’s marriage pros- been cut, she says. “We had no idea that had one of these procedures, collectively pectsdepend on it. Manyparentsknow itis this was hurting the girls’ health.” But known as sunat, the local term forritual fe- harmful but have it done for fear that they change is slow: the campaign reaches less male circumcision. Some midwives offer it or their children will be ostracised. In Dji- than 3% of women a year. Many refuse to free as part oftheir delivery package. bouti, says Fathia Hassan of UNICEF, the listen; some take their daughters to Soma- Santinam, a security guard in Jakarta, UN’s children’s agency, parents hardly ever lia, where no one questions the procedure. took his infant girls to a traditional circum- admit that their daughter is intact. Re- Indonesia’s most senior clerics support ciser in the village he comes from. They search among Somalis living in Sweden sunat. In Bandung, the third-biggest city, an were not hurt, he says, just cut a little, found that women were convinced the Islamic charity organises group circumci- “nothing even like the way boys are cir- men favoured infibulation; in fact, men sion ceremonies. Elsewhere, religious lead- cumcised.” The UN disagrees with his take. were opposed—but never spoke about it. ers are increasingly vocally opposed, but It counts such cuts and pricks as female their words often fall on deafears. In Egypt genital mutilation (FGM), even if they 61% of girls are cut in defiance of a decade- cause no lasting harm to health or sexual A world of pain 1 old fatwa (religious edict) by senior Islamic sensation. Types of female genital cutting by country, clerics. Djibouti’s Islamic High Council Globally, over 4m girls a year undergo 1995-2011, % of women who have undergone any type also plansto issue a fatwa thisyear, reiterat- ritual tamperingwith theirgenitals, the UN Infibulation Cut, flesh removed ing a statement in 2014. The problem is estimates. This ranges from the symbolic, Cut, no flesh removed/nicked Unknown that, in private, some imams stray from the such as rubbing with turmeric or other 020406080100 official line, says Abdurahman Ali, the herbs, through singeing or excising part of Somalia head ofits fatwa department. FGM the clitoris, to grotesque mutilation (see Eritrea In most places is against the law. chart1). About 400,000 sufferinfibulation, Djibouti Though campaigners think that without a in which the vaginal lipsand external parts Kenya shift in attitudes laws can do little, they of the clitoris are removed, and the vagina push for prosecutions to make parents Sierra Leone FGM stitched almost closed. Guinea think twice. In Djibouti, though has Groupsasdisparate asthe Masai in Ken- been illegal since 1995, nearly 80% ofwom- Nigeria ya, Jews in Ethiopia and Coptic Christians en are cut and no cases were brought to Mali in Egypt practise FGM in some form. Cut- court until last year when a circumciser Source: UNICEF ting is often done in the name of Islam, and a mother were given symbolic sen-1 64 International The Economist June 18th 2016

lished earlier this year in the Journal of fections, the health ministry issued guide- Everyday barbarity 2 Medical Ethics. The authors, gynaecologists lines tellingdoctors to give a light scratch to Women and girls who have undergone genital Kavita Arora and Allan Jacobs, argue that the skin coveringthe clitoris. Fouryears lat- cutting, 1997-2011, selected countries, % some types of cutting, such as those com- er, under pressure from anti-FGM activists, 15-19 years old 45-49 years old mon in Indonesia, do not harm physical it withdrew the guidelines but stopped 0 20406080100 functioning and should not be described short of a ban. Eni Gustina, of its family- Somalia as “mutilation”. Some, they say, are less in- health department, doubts that a ban can Djibouti vasive than male circumcision, which is achieve much while sunat is such a popu- Guinea near-ubiquitous in America (see box); oth- lar tradition. But guidelines, she says, may Mali ers, though more severe, resemble labia- distract health workers from pressing the Sudan plasty, a surgical reduction of the vaginal message that sunat has no health benefits. lips that some Western women undergo Sierra Leone Emi Nurjasmi of the Indonesian mid- for cosmetic reasons. Applying the “yuk Eritrea wives’ association sees things differently. factor” to all pricks and cuts is unhelpful, The methods used by midwives vary, she Egypt says Dr Arora. If even a few parents says, because the procedure is not taught in Ethiopia switched from major to minor forms of midwifery school and there is no official Liberia cutting, great suffering would be averted. standard. The association tells midwives Senegal Nafissatou Diop of UNFPA, the UN’s to advise mothers against sunat and, if Nigeria population agency, disagrees. Accepting pressed, to dab the genitals with iodine. Kenya cuttingbydoctorswould grantspurious re- The issue is becoming ever more urgent Source: UNICEF spectability to all forms of FGM, she says. in the West, as rising numbers of immi- And the agency knows of girls who have grants arrive from places where FGM is 2 tences. Egypt also saw its first court case already been cut being subjected to further common. Some girls are taken to their last year, after a 13-year-old girl died from mutilation at the insistence of relatives un- countries of origin for the procedure; complications. Her father and the doctor satisfied with the initial result. school holidays have been dubbed “the were given prison sentences. In Indonesia, opinions on whether the cutting season”. There is no easy way to Activistsworrythatcuttingisbecoming practice should be regulated are split. In protect all girls from the custom. But re- increasingly medicalised. In Egypt, where 2010, pressed by Islamic organisations that drawing the line to separate the harmless the usual practice is to remove part of the lobbied for medicalisation to prevent in- and atrocious might help. 7 clitoris, four-fifths of procedures are now done by doctors; in Sudan over half are Male circumcision done by health workers. Campaigners are partly to blame, says Vivian Fouad, who works on Egypt’s national programme to Snip snap abolish FGM: for years they intoned that cuttingcauses deadly infections, which led Why more than halfofnewborn boys in America are circumcised parents to assume that all is fine if done by a doctor, instead of a traditional circumcis- EXUAL, health and aesthetic norms do circumcised before they go home. Insur- er (who, very often, is an old woman with Snot vary much across the West. Male ers often pay,so providers have an in- poor eyesight and a rusty blade). circumcision is an exception. Over half of centive to promote it. Parents who want American boys are snipped, compared to decide on rational grounds get little Failure to protect with 2-3% in Finland and Britain. The help. The American Academy ofPae- The survival of FGM despite 30 years of procedure is justified in America on diatrics says the benefits “outweigh the eradication efforts has led some to suggest grounds given little credence in Europe: risks” but also that they are too low to a different strategy: focusing on the types that it makes genitals cleaner, nicer-look- justify routine circumcision. Most par- that cause long-term harm and permitting ing and more socially acceptable. ents go with the flow. the rest, if carried out by medical person- Circumcision first became popular in European doctors’ associations take a nel. But every time the idea is raised, it is the late19th century as a supposed cure different line. The Nordic ones insist that scuppered by a storm ofoutrage. formasturbation—and health problems there are no health benefits foryoung The debate goes back at least 20 years. from headaches to tuberculosis. After the boys. The Royal Dutch Medical Associa- In 1996 a doctor in Seattle’s Harborview second world war it became associated tion urges a “strong policy ofdeterrence”; Hospital asked a pregnant woman, a re- in America with hygiene and wealth; in it stops short ofrecommending a ban cent immigrant from Somalia, a routine other rich countries governments (which only forfear ofdriving circumcision for question about her labour and delivery paid formost health care) were uncon- religious reasons underground. plans: did she want the baby circumcised vinced ofits merits. On the whole, European countries if a boy. “Yes,” she said, “and also if it’s a Over 80% ofAmerican men are cir- view the snip as an infringement on the girl.” After discussions with local Somali cumcised. Parents worry that uncircum- child’s bodily integrity that cannot be parents, the hospital decided to offer a ritu- cised boys will be teased in the changing justified on medical grounds. It is true al nick—to avoid greaterharm ifthe parents rooms; fathers often want their sons to that circumcision can help prevent some looked elsewhere. But after widespread lookthe same as them “down there”. sexually transmitted infections—but the criticism, it withdrew the offer. Many parents thinkforeskins are hard to evidence is from African countries where In 2004 a similar attempt by a hospital clean, says Georganne Chapin ofIntact HIV/AIDS is common. Other infections in Florence met the same fate. In 2010 the America, a group lobbying against infant can be fought in other ways, forexample American Academy of Paediatrics sup- circumcision. But ifmen can become with vaccines or antibiotics. America ported Harborview’sapproach—onlyto re- astrophysicists or master carpenters, she puts parents’ wishes first—even iffuture tract less than a month later. Similarly, In- says, surely they can learn to wash? generations may find their reasons as odd donesia has issued and then withdrawn American doctors routinely asknew as the Victorians’ desire to check“exces- guidelines fordoctors. mothers whether they want their sons sive lust”. The latest row is about a paper pub- Business The Economist June 18th 2016 65

Also in this section 66 Decentralising the internet 67 The opening of Shanghai Disneyland 68 The Panama Canal 69 A good week for nuclear power 69 The business of Broadway 71 Schumpeter: The imperial CFO

For daily coverage of business, visit Economist.com/business-ﬁnance

Technology deals he could not wait. Unassailable during the desktop-com- LinkedUp puting era, Microsoft is still the world’s largest software-maker, but now has to compete with rivals such as Google and Amazon as computing shifts towards mo- SAN FRANCISCO bile devices and the cloud. Unlike his predecessor, Steve Ballmer, who was slow to Microsoft’s purchase ofLinkedIn is one ofthe most expensive tech deals in history. invest in these areas, Mr Nadella has a It may not be one ofthe smartest grand scheme to reposition Microsoft. This MAGINE a world where we’re no lon- day, shedding $11 billion from its market involves putting less emphasis on Win- “Iger looking up to tech titans such as value, after the firm reported that forecasts dows, the firm’s flagship operating system, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Fa- of revenues for 2016 were lower than exas well as beefing up cloud computing and cebook...because we are one of them.” So pected. LinkedIn had also revealed that it putting the firm at the forefront of ad- wrote Jeff Weiner, boss of LinkedIn, in an made a net loss of around $165m in 2015, vances in machine learning and artificial open letter on June 13th. Not much imagi- despite revenues of $3 billion, in large part intelligence. nation is necessary. Microsoft had just an- because of excessive stock-based compen- Acquiring LinkedIn is an element of nounced it would pay $26.2 billion to buy sation. The decline was the biggest one- this masterplan. The social-network firm the professional social network, making it day fall since the company went public in has an enviable team of data scientists, a the third-largest acquisition in the history 2011. Its share price has not fully recovered. commodity coveted by tech firms. These of the tech industry. The deal was accom- Despite these worries, Microsoft paid a boffins design algorithms to find patterns panied by substantial promises from Mr generous 50% premium over LinkedIn’s in big piles ofdigital information. LinkedIn Weiner and Microsoft’s boss, Satya Na- share price to acquire the firm. Michael Cu- will be useful to Microsoft for other rea- della, that the deal would transform busi- sumano at MIT’s Sloan School of Manage- sons, too. The firm gathers detailed infor- nesses’ and workers’ productivity world- ment reckons that the social network mation about its users, including their em- wide. Those pledges seem fanciful. would have cost considerably less in a ployment history, education and whom Microsoft is paying a high price for a year’s time. Mr Nadella may have felt that they know. These data could prove valu- firm that has suffered its fair share of set- able to Microsoft as it attempts to build of- backs. Although LinkedIn isthe largest pro- ferings for managing relationships with fessional social network by far, with The get-work network customers and to compete with Salesforce, around 430m registered users and 100m LinkedIn a firm it reportedly tried to buy last year. visitors to its site each month, some an- Members, m Share price, $ The two firmscould notagree on a price alysts have questioned how much bigger it at the time. Salesforce’s current market val- can become. LinkedIn makes most of its 600 300 ue is around $55 billion. LinkedIn is a money by selling subscriptions to cor- 500 250 cheaper substitute. It will also dovetail porate recruiters, who prowl through its 400 200 with Microsoft’s existing products in Of- database ofexecutiveslookingforprospec- fice, its collection of business applications tive employees. Revenue growth has been 300 150 and services that includes Word, Excel and slower than expected, and rolling out new 200 100 Outlook, an e-mail system. The latter businesses and improving existing ones might gain in popularity if LinkedIn keeps 100 50 has proved pricey. users’ detailsup to date and offersalerts ifa Concerns over the pace of progress 0 0 contact moves firms. Such extra features came to the fore in February, when Linked- 2011 12 13 14 15 16 should, in theory, encourage companies to In’s share price sankby more than 40% in a Sources: Thomson Reuters; company reports buy new cloud services from Microsoft. 1 66 Business The Economist June 18th 2016

2 Even so, the deal’s rationale looks ques- The internet tionable. Mr Nadella has suggested that with LinkedIn, Microsoft will become the Reweaving the web platform for managing workers’ personal details from around the web. He also promises that Microsoft will become better at predicting what information users might find useful, suggesting news articles related to a project someone is working on A slew ofstartups is trying to decentralise the online world or recommending a friend of a friend online who might be able to help an employ- IM BERNERS-LEE ends “Weaving the ee with a task at work. In this vision, TWeb”, a book written in the late 1990s, LinkedIn’s “newsfeed” will become a fo- on an optimistic note: “The experience of cus forinformation-sharing at the office. seeingthe web take offby the grassroots effort of thousands gives me tremendous Is it worth it, let me work it hope that…we can collectively make our There are three hitches in Microsoft’s world what we want.” Nearly two decades plans. The first is financial. It is shelling out later the inventor of the web no longer the equivalent of around $260 for each sounds as cheerful. “The problem is the monthly active user of LinkedIn. To keep dominance of one search engine, one big shareholders happy, it will need to add us- social network, one Twitter formicro-blog- ers to LinkedIn’s platform more quickly or ging,” he declared on June 7th at a confer- be clearer about how it can make more ence in San Francisco. money from their data. Mr Berners-Lee’s observation that the The second is operational. Microsoft’s internet has become heavily centralised is record with big deals is poor. Its purchase not new, yet in recent months warnings ofSkype in 2011for$8.5 billion has been no such as his have grown louder. Pundits es- runaway success. Microsoft squandered timate that Google’s many sites attract an over $6.3 billion on aQuantive, an online- estimated 40% of all traffic on the web. advertising firm that it bought in 2007, and Facebook’s apps are similarly dominant Skype, which offers free internet calling. $7.6 billion on Nokia’s handset business in on smartphones. Together these two firms If decentralisation is now making a 2014. Both misfortunes happened before will soon rake in two-thirds of all online- comeback, it is largely because of the rise Mr Nadella took over, but “the historic advertising revenues. The takeover of ofbitcoin, a crypto-currency, and its under- playbook says it’s not going to work,” reck- LinkedIn, a social network for profession- lying technology, the blockchain. This is a ons Brent Thill, an analyst at UBS, a bank. als, by Microsoft, a software and cloud- globally distributed database, which is Mr Nadella intends to keep LinkedIn as an computing giant (see previous article), will maintained not by a single actor, such as a independent company, perhaps because only reinforce such worries. bank, but collaboratively by many. he has seen the pitfalls of integrating large In recent years, other “control points” Bitcoin and the blockchain have acquisitions at first hand. have emerged, accordingto Yochai Benkler “shown what is possible,” says Juan Benet, The third hitch is behavioural. Mr Na- of Harvard University. Smartphones, who invented the InterPlanetary File Sys- della wants LinkedIn to become the place which now generate more than half of on- tem, one of a number of efforts to build an to go fornews and other details about peo- line traffic, are notasopen a platform asthe infrastructure for a more decentralised in- ple’s work lives, but firms are unlikely to internet: access to the two dominant mo- ternet. IFPS eliminates the need for web- want to give their employees more of an bile operating systems, Android and iOS, is sites to have a central server; instead, files excuse to spend time on social media. regulated byGoogle and Apple, respective- are stored all overthe web. BigchainDB, an- Some bosses regard LinkedIn with hostil- ly. Cloud computing, too, isa centralised af- other such project, is developing a globally itybecause itmakesmoneyfrom recruiters fair, with Amazon leading the pack, fol- distributed database, which is faster and out to poach their staff. They will not want lowed by Microsoft and Google. These bigger than the blockchain (although it to let LinkedIn further embed itself at their same companies, as well as Facebook, are also makes use of it). And Storj offers a companies. Already some large firms in control of ever-growing piles of perso- form of collaborative cloud storage: data block or restrict access to LinkedIn on their nal and other data. Such information may are spread over the computers that have networks. Users may also grow uncom- ultimately allow these online giants “to signed up to the service. fortable if Microsoft deploys their data predict, shape and ‘nudge’ the behaviours Distributed applications are cropping elsewhere and could stop using the ser- of hundreds of millions of people,” notes up, too. Blockstack Labs’ offering, called vice. Mr Nadella has acknowledged they Mr Benkler in a recent paper. Onename, which is also based on the will have to treat what they know about Now a new band of entrepreneurs and blockchain, allows users to register their users “tastefully”. venture-capital firms is emerging with a online identity; the idea is that they do not The deal has been welcomed for other mission to “re-decentralise” the internet. have to rely on log-ins provided by Face- reasons, however. It could signal an im- This is not the first time that new technol- book or Google. IndieWeb allows people pending tech buying spree. In the days ogy has pushed against the centralising to maintain information they want to afterLinkedIn’s purchase, investors looked forces of the internet. In the early 2000s share with the world without using cen- around to see which other firms Mr Na- “peer-to-peer” services such as Napster tralised social networks. OpenBazaar is a della and his peers might have their eyes and Kazaa, for instance, allowed users to collection ofindependent online shops. on. Optimists pushed up the share price of share music files rather than download Such services are likely to multiply. One Twitter, another social-media firm whose them from a central server. But lawsuits reason is that investors are showing inter- growth prospects have been questioned, from record labels and, in some cases, a est. BlueYard, a venture-capital firm, re- in the hope that a buyer might make a failure to find ways to profit from these ser- cently invited other venture capitalists and move. But not every tech firm is lucky vices meant these technologies ended up entrepreneurs to a conference in Berlin. enough to have Mr Nadella coveting it. 7 being limited to a few services, such as “We used to spend a lot oftime investing in1 The Economist June 18th 2016 Business 67

2 firms with network effects,” explained take the world by storm is unclear. A big ling stake), much hangs in the balance. Brad Burnham of Union Square Ventures, hurdle—which previous efforts at decen- Disney faces several hurdles. The first is referring to the mechanics of online mar- tralised technology failed to clear—is to be China’s economy, which has slowed since kets, which allow successful firms to be- as convenient and seductive as centralised the project was conceived. Household income dominant. “Now we are spending a incumbents. Regulators are likely to comes are still rising, however, and interest lot oftime figuringout how we could undo mount resistance against projects that tran- is healthy. Even before the official opening, those effects.” Hisfirm hasinvested in both scend national jurisdictions. Initiatives 1m punters had turned up for a look. Over Blockstack Labs and OpenBazaar, in the such as the DAO, a novel investment vehi- 300m people live within three hours by hope that they will curb the momentum of cle that lets its shareholders vote on how to car or train, a huge catchment area for a Facebookand Amazon. spend their money, is not based in any park that hopes to attract 10m to 12m peo- The second is that the technology to country—not even a tax haven—but on Eth- ple in its first year. build decentralised applications, which is ereum’s blockchain. A second challenge is politics. China still in its infancy, will get better. For in- Then there is the question of how de- has turned the screws on foreign firms of stance, bitcoin’s blockchain is no longer centralised services will earn their keep. late and is squeezing all media companies the only game in town. It now competes Most are based on open-source software, through tighter control of content. This led with Ethereum, a similar system that offers which anybody can use without charge, so to regulators scuppering Disney’s joint ef- more scope for developers to write appli- startups will have to make money with fort with Alibaba, a local e-commerce cations. They can, for instance, design add-on services, such as updates, mainte- giant, to promote its content online in Chi- “smart contracts”, business rules encoded nance and subscriptions. More fundamen- na. Clearly, the firm is not untouchable. in programs that execute themselves auto- tally, an internet that eschews control Still, Mr Iger deserves credit for his deft matically: funds are transferred, for exam- points may be one that affords firms less dealings with government. No other firm ple, only if the majority of owners have opportunity to build profits. To create a re- has persuaded Chinese officials to shut digitally signed off a transaction. Consen- turn that makes venture capitalists happy, down over 150 factories, clear nearly 1,000 sys, a firm that designs such contracts, has the new tech firms will almost certainly acres ofprime land, build a new metro link used them to create a local marketplace for come under pressure to get ever bigger. De- and paint its mascots on commercial jets. renewable energy in Brooklyn without the centralisation might fit the vision of the In November, regulators launched a year- need fora central utility. web’s founding father, but the internet belong campaign to stamp out counterfeiting Whether these new businesses will came centralised fora reason. 7 of Disney merchandise. President Xi Jinp- ing even revealed last year that in party meetings, “I voted for Disney.” Shanghai Disneyland Not everyone is as welcoming. Disney “shouldn’t have entered China,” declares Lord of the jungle Wang Jianlin, a well-connected property and entertainment magnate. Dalian Wan- da, his firm, has just opened a $3 billion theme park in Nanchang in south-eastern China, and recently started work on its 11th SHANGHAI park. Dozens ofothertheme parks are now under construction across the country. Disney takes a big gamble with a new theme parkin China The formidable Mr Wang believes that BOLD reimagining of the tale of Tarzan spite its expertise, it has occasionally mis- Disney cannot succeed in China as a “lone Ais one of the principal attractions at fired outside America. Disneyland Paris tiger” against a pack of local wolves that Shanghai Disneyland, a theme park twice was initially snubbed for being too Ameri- understand Chinese consumers far better. the size of California’s original Disney- can and Hong Kong Disneyland has suf- But Carl Yin, general manager at Spring land, that opened on June 16th. Even more fered from being too small. With $5.5 bil- Tour, one of the country’s biggest travel impressive than the acrobatic stunts on lion invested by Disney and its Chinese agencies, argues that many Chinese con- display are the gyrations performed be- partners (state entities that hold a control- sumers will favour Disney over Wanda be-1 hind the scenesbyRobertIger,chairman of the Walt Disney Company, to ensure that his firm’s vast investment in China brings equally huge rewards. In pursuit of bumper returns Mr Iger boasted this week that the new park is “by far the most creatively ambitious and technically advanced” his firm has ever built. As evidence, he pointed out that it has the world’s tallest Storybook Castle; puts on more live shows than any new Disney park, all in Chinese; and that its heart-stop- ping “Tron” and “Pirates of the Caribbean” rides (based on blockbuster films) feature advanced technologies that Disney is launching in China. Disney has certainly had long enough to conjure this up; over 15 years has passed from inception to opening day. After such a long wait, will it make money? Disney already runs four of the world’s five biggest theme parks. But de- The magic middle kingdom 68 Business The Economist June 18th 2016

2 cause it offers them an “authentic experience ofa lifestyle” and not “just rides”. That points to the third and thorniest problem: balancing cultures. Having learned from its earlier fumbles (Euro Dis- ney initially refused to serve wine, a cardi- nal offence in France), Mr Iger has bent over backwards to respect local culture in the Shanghai resort. The food on sale is 90% Asian. The park is stuffed with traditional gardens and tea houses. The peony, China’s national flower, and other local to- tems are found everywhere. Ask park-goers why they have come, however, and none mentions savouring local culture. They want more burgers and pizzas. At the premiere in the park of the Mandarin version of “The Lion King”, a glamorous celebrity couple glided by on the red carpet until the lady suddenly broke free of her beau and her bouncers, muttering something about cake. She had just spotted the Cheesecake Factory, an Pulling power American dessert chain with a cult following whose first outlet in the country is in The $5 billion venture will be inaugurated windfall, says Mika Vehvilainen of Cargo- the resort. on June 26th when the first vessel officially tec, a maker of cargo-handling equipment. The risk is that Disney goes too far in lo- sails through. The widening of the canal Ports in Baltimore, Charleston, Miami, calising the park as it grows—Mr Iger con- was initially mooted before the second New York and Savannah are updating fa- firmed this week it will expand soon—and world war, but became more urgent as cilities to accommodate the Neo-Pana- strays from its winning formula. Wolfgang ever larger ships were unable to use it. maxes. The Port Authority of New York Puck, an Austrian-born celebrity restaura- Over 960m cubic metres of cargo and New Jersey plans to spend $2.7 billion teur, was inspecting his massive new eat- passed through the canal in 2015, a new re- on enlarging its terminals and shipping ery inside the resort this week. Asked if cord and an amount that Francisco Miguez lanes, and a further $1.3 billion to raise a Chinese culture will influence his offer- of the ACP calls “the maximum we could bridge by 20 metres. ings, the dapper chefsaid no: “Youmust be do in the existing locks”. The expansion in- Shipping lines’ costs will also fall, in true to who you are, that is what people ex- creases capacity to 1.7 billion cubic metres. part through economies of scale but also pect.” Disney might do well to take note. 7 The biggest container ships that could use because ports are automating facilities at the old canal, known as Panamaxes, can the same time as preparing them for Neo- carry around 5,000 TEUs (20-foot equiva- Panamaxes, says Kim Fejfer, boss of APM The Panama Canal lent units, or a standard shipping contain- Terminals, the ports division ofDenmark’s er). Neo-Panamaxes that will squeeze Maersk Group, the world’s biggest ship- Wider impact through the new locks can carry around pingfirm. Portsin the GulfofMexico are al- 13,000 TEUs. Although the world’s largest ready embracing these new technologies. ships have space for nearly 20,000 TEUs, Customers may not, however, benefit the majority of the global fleet will now fit much from the reduction in shipping costs. PANAMA CITY AND ROTTERDAM through the canal. Rates have already fallen over the past two The expansion will not only fill the cof- years—byup to 40% forcontainerson some What the expansion ofPanama’s fers of the ACP and the Panamanian gov- routes, and slightly less for bulk commod- waterway means forworld trade ernment. It will also change how freight ities such as coal. The response, industry ORKERS at a fish market in Panama moves around the world. Traffic could di- consolidation, may mute incentives to WCity disagree on the benefits of the vert from the Suez Canal. Larger vessels, pass savings on. Earlier this year China’s country’s newly widened canal. One opti- which currently ply that route between two biggest shipping lines merged to form mistically hopes the government will have Asia and America’s east coast, now have the world’s fourth-largest operator. Firms more funds to pay for air-conditioning in the option of going through Panama. are also building alliances to manage ca- their broiling workplace. Another draws a America’s east-coast ports should get busi- pacity. In January 2015 Maersk and MSC, finger across his throat and says, “The peo- er. In the past, many containers heading the world’s largest shippers, launched 2M, ple will get nothing.” A third calls it “the from Asia to the eastern seaboard would an alliance to share space on their vessels. biggest opportunity” in Panama. The last arrive at west-coast ports, such as Los An- In May this year, six other shipping lines verdict is certainly true of the govern- geles and Long Beach, and then travel to with a global market share of18% launched ment’s take. The revenue it receives each their destinations by road or rail. Bigger “The Alliance”. There are rumours of a year from the Panama Canal Authority ships may now sail directly to ports in the huge tie-up between several medium- (ACP) is expected to double to around $2 Gulf of Mexico or the east coast, though sized firms. billion in 2021. This is a country that knows shipping times will be longer. And vessels Widening the Panama Canal may not how to reap the benefits ofits geography. carrying liquefied natural gas from Ameri- bring cool air to sweaty fishmongers. But it The ACP will be able to charge more for ca’s shale beds will be able to pass through should certainly give some parts of the passage to bigger ships now that massive the locks for the first time, heading to Asia. shipping industry a boost. Whether the newlockshave been builtatboth the Pacif- They are expected to account for 20% of benefits oflower costs trickle down to con- ic and Atlantic ends of the canal and chan- cargo by volume by 2020. sumers will depend on the internal machi- nels have been deepened and widened. East-coast ports are preparing for the nations ofthe shipping industry. 7 The Economist June 18th 2016 Business 69

Nuclear power it has no plans to build new plants. “No investor would risk private money on build- Keeping on the northern lights ing new nuclear today,”a spokesman says. “But who knows about the future.” In fact there are few places in the rich world where there is an appetite to build nuclear-power plants. Even in Britain, which is offeringa huge subsidy toEDF, the French firm is unable to commit to going Sweden’s taxcut provides a rare bit ofcheerforthe nuclearindustry ahead with Hinkley Point. HE list ofcandidates forthe most belea- of about €7 ($7.90) per megawatt hour, It may be different in the developing Tguered part of Europe’s nuclear-power around a third of current wholesale elec- world. This month India reaffirmed a deci- industry is long. But since last year Swe- tricity prices in the region. Fitch, a ratings sion, taken in 2013, to buy six nuclear-pow- den, which generates about 40% ofits elec- agency,said the tax made Swedish nuclear erplants from Westinghouse, owned by Ja- tricity through nuclear energy, has been a plants unprofitable at current prices. pan’s Toshiba, after talks between India’s strong contender. A tax increased to puni- Despite their losses, operators still prime minister, Narendra Modi, and Ba- tive levels in 2015by the anti-nuclearGreen needed to make biginvestmentsin upgrad- rackObama. Butin realitythe deal remains Party hit its operators so hard that they ing the cooling systems of their nuclear- stuck, as long as it remains unclear wheth- threatened to close all ten of the country’s power plants by 2020, ordered after Ja- er Westinghouse (or any other supplier) plants unless it was scrapped. On June10th pan’s Fukushima disaster in 2011. Last year would have to accept liability in case of a the government, including the Greens, they shocked the country by announcing nuclearaccident. Nowhere isnucleara par- caved in and threw them a lifeline. It has the closure offourofthe ten plants in oper- ticularly cheap and easy option. 7 promised to phase out the tax from next ation because they could not afford to keep year and will allowed operators to replace them running. It sent a message, says Ro- ageing reactors with new ones. land Vetter of CF Partners, an investment The economics of Broadway This was a rare piece of good news for firm, that unless operators were spared the an industry that looks like it is on its last tax, baseload electricity supply in Sweden No business like legs in much of western Europe. Germany was in jeopardy.The country generates the is decommissioning all of its reactors and rest of its power from hydro schemes and show business France is cutting the share of nuclear in the renewables, which are subject to weather energy mix to half, from 75%, by 2025. The conditions. “In the short run it was all country’s main power provider, Electricité about keeping the lights on,” he says. Ouranalysis ofthe art and science of de France (EDF), is under fire for the short- Whether it actually leads to the con- creating a hit show comingsofthe as-yet-unfinished European struction of new power plants is another Pressurised Reactors (EPRs) under con- matter. The agreement to support the nuc- AMILTON”, a hip-hop musical struction in Finland and France. Its pro- lear operators included a pledge to gener- “Habout one of America’s founding posed EPR scheme at Hinkley Point in Brit- ate all electricity from renewable sources fathers and the architect ofits financial sys- ain has become a political embarrassment (which excludes nuclear) by 2040. That tem, is an unlikely smash. Lin-Manuel Mi- on both sides of the Channel. Unsurpris- may have helped win over the Greens, but randa’s creation has been the hottest ticket ingly no one trumpeted the news from it is unlikely to generate enthusiasm for on Broadway since the show started in July Sweden more loudly than Jean-Bernard building new plants, not least because re- last year. On June 12th it won 11 Tony Lévy, EDF’s chairman. It will not pull the newables will continue to be subsidised awards, theatre’s equivalent of Oscars. Mi- nuclear industry out the mire, however. and the bigger their role in the energy mix, chelle Obama called it“the bestpiece of art The immediate beneficiaries are Swe- the more they suppress wholesale prices. in any form that I have ever seen in my den’s three nuclear-energy providers, Vat- On June 15th Vattenfall announced that life”. Its success is widely credited with tenfall, a state-owned utility, Uniper, it was upgrading safety features on three convincingthe Treasury to keep Alexander carved out ofGermany’s Eon, and Fortum, reactors at its Forsmarkplant following the Hamilton on the $10 bill. But if its cultural a Finnish utility. The so-called capacity tax tax cut, enabling them to continue produc- heft is clear, its commercial achievements on nuclearinstallations cost the equivalent ing electricity until the 2040s. Uniper says may be just as remarkable. “Hamilton” serves as a reminder that although Broadway is rarely regarded as a big business in the same way as Holly- wood is, the most successful musicals can outperform the silver screen. No film has ever banked $1 billion at the box office in North America, but three musicals—“The Phantom of the Opera”, “The Lion King” and “Wicked”—have exceeded this bench- mark on Broadway, admittedly over long runs. The gap widens further when counting performances worldwide. Andrew Lloyd Webber’s “Phantom”, began life on the London stage in 1986 before transfer- ring to Broadway and beyond. It has earned $6 billion globally, more than twice the worldwide take of“Avatar”, the film industry’s record-holder. “Hamilton” may cement Broadway’s An unusual glow lead. Revenues of $80m since opening last 1 70 Business The Economist June 18th 2016

cember. For a typical musical, a celebrated Well-tuned productions impresario increases the probability of Broadway shows’ weekly revenue, June 1984-April 2016 Play Musical selling out in its opening week by just four 2.0 percentage points. The Book of Mormon Good reviews do not contribute as Wicked Hamilton 1.5 much to success as the critics would like. The Phantom of the Opera Lucky Guy The Lion King Aladdin Data from Jeffrey Simonoff of New York University and DidHeLikeIt.com, a review 1.0 aggregator, show that, all else being equal, School of Rock a musical with a rave review in the New Actual values, $m values, Actual 0.5 York Times is less than six percentage points more likely to sell out in a given 0 weekthan one with a neutral review. 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Our model would have projected a rea- The Economist’s projected values, $m sonable performance forHamilton at best, Online: To see a list of sources and an account of our methodology, please visit: Economist.com/broadway-business taking perhaps $1.3m a week while paying rent, wages, marketing and the like of 2 summer, averaging $1.7m a week, put it on that were not. “Hamilton”, by contrast, is around $600,000. Despite not conforming track to break the billion-dollar barrier in based on a stodgy 832-page biography. to the template for commercial triumph, it just over a decade. Once productions open A second tried-and-tested approach is has achieved the highest average weekly in Chicago, Los Angeles and London, re- to bring in a Hollywood star: “Lucky Guy”, revenues of any Broadway show ever and turns could triple for the show’s creators with Tom Hanks, rapidly sold out its entire is one of the biggest outliers of the past 30 and backers. three-month spell in 2013. James Ulmer, an years (see chart). At first glance, it is hard to fathom how entertainment analyst, has compiled an in- The reason ithasnotdone even better is theatre can compete with film’s econo- dex which rates Hollywood actors on their Broadway’s squeamishness over charging mies of scale. Many more people can see a “bankability”. Using those data, we were high prices. Demand for“Hamilton” farex- movie; the biggest venues on Broadway able to calculate the total star power of the ceeds supply but the additional revenues seat fewer than 2,000 people a night. But casts for each of the Broadway shows in either go to scalpers or are not realised at scarcity also means prices are high: $100 a our database. The presence of a well- all, as lucky theatregoers enjoy a bargain. ticket for two hours of entertainment is known actor can be expected to elevate a In order to “take the air out of” brokers, common, about five times what it costs to musical’s probability of selling out in its on June 9th Hamilton’s producer, Jeffrey go to the cinema. And popular shows run opening weekfrom 21% to 59%, while an A- Seller, raised the price of“premium” tickets and run. “Phantom” still takes over $1m in list actor can bring the odds up to 92%. Yet to $849, and cranked up most seats closer a good week. “Hamilton” has no big stars. to $200. Coincidentally, the next week Theatre is a risky business, however. One thing that “Hamilton” does have is “Hamilton” broke the $2m-a-week barrier Just one in five shows make a profit and a proven hitmaker in Mr Miranda. His pre- for the first time. One producer estimates musicals, though usually far more lucra- vious musical, “In the Heights”, won four the show could quintuple its revenue if it tive than straight theatre, are lucky if they Tony awards and its total revenues exceed- charged what the market would bear. Such run for six months. Actors and landlords ed $100m. But the past success of a show’s pricing would bolster the industry’s eco- must be paid regardless ofhow many seats writers and composers matters little. Even nomics just as Hamilton solidified Ameri- are filled. Even popular shows can shut Broadway’s biggest winners have trouble ca’s financial system. And by paving the down early if cash is tight after a few bad repeatingpastglories. Lord Lloyd Webber’s way for bigger profits, more shows would weeks. That makes investing a gamble. “School ofRock”, hasplayed to housesthat get funded in the hope ofachieving Hamil- So what can would-be backers trying to are just over 70% full since it opened in De- tonian riches. 7 replicate the success of “Hamilton” learn from Broadway’s biggest hits and misses? The data are detailed enough to make some suggestions. The Broadway League, a trade group, has published weekly revenue and attendance figures for every show goingbackto 1984. The Economist has analysed data from past shows alongside various attributes, including genre, cast size, reception by critics and star-quality of actors involved, to estimate the probability of a show selling out in a given week and potential revenues in that week. We limited our data mostly to those available to investors at the start ofa show’s run. Given what people knew about “Ham- ilton” when it first launched, there was little hope of foreseeing the scale of its success. Two approaches appear relatively reliable paths to triumph on Broadway. One is to put successful films on the stage. Disney’s “The Lion King” has delivered steady profits since 1997. Musicals based on films have grossed $145,000 more on average during their opening weeks than those Bastard, orphan, hero, scholar The Economist June 18th 2016 Business 71 Schumpeter The imperial CFO

Chieffinance officers are amassing a worrying amount ofpower Hewlett-Packard were numbered when his CFO, Cathie Lesjak, told the board that she strongly opposed his decision to buy Au- tonomy, a software company. These risingpowers are well rewarded fortheirgrowing clout. In 2014 the median pay for a CFO at an S&P 500 company was $3.8m. (The highest-paid, Patrick Pichette, Google’s CFO until last year, took home $43.8m.) Though this was lower than the top dog’s remuneration, the gap is narrowing, with CFOs winning slightly larger pay increases than their bosses, particularly in bigger companies. CFOs are also gaining power within what might be called the shadow ruling class—a network of boards, chair- manships and quangos that hire the CEOs and mark their report cards. EY, a consultancy, says that in 2012 almost 50% of CFOsat the 350 largest global firms sat on the boards of other companies, compared with a figure of36% in 2002. Several things explain the rise of the CFO. The shareholder- value movement played a role in promoting them and giving them a bigger role in setting corporate goals. Andrew Fastow, who was convicted for his role in the demise of Enron, was an ominous early occupant of the co-pilot’s seat. The Sarbanes-Ox- ley legislation that was brought in to clear up that mess codified HE days of imperial CEOs have long gone. Today’s chief exec- the CFO’s role as the CEO’s partnerat the top ofthe corporate pyr- Tutives do theirbest to contain theiregos and, instead, project a amid. The financial crisisof2008 focused even more attention on modest image. They talk about “servant leadership” and make a managing costs. CFOs also have more powerful tools than ever to point of cultivating their “stakeholders”. Many bosses leave the monitor what is happening in their organisations. They have ac- limelight to company founders and big-name investors. And yet cess to lots of data and computing power, which allow them to a newauthorityfigure hasemerged within companies, much less build up a timely picture ofwhat is going on. exuberant than old-fashioned autocratic CEOs but just as deter- It is hard to workout whether an imperial CFO is a good thing. mined to amass power: the imperial CFO. Encouragingly, there is growing diversity and professionalism. Chief financial officers barely existed 50 years ago: company Women hold 13% of CFO positions at America’s leading compa- accounts were administered by mysterious people called “comp- nies, against only just under 5% of the top jobs. Today’s finance trollers”. Today, CFOs are at the heart of all the world’s big firms. chiefs are better trained than their predecessors, and more likely They are the only corporate officers other than the boss who are to have degrees and experience in a broad range of corporate able to monitor every corner of an organisation. They are the functions. Sarbanes-Oxley and other legislation has forced CFOs only executive otherthan the chiefwho is feared by everybody: a to be more careful about following the rules. “no” from the CFO means that your precious project is dead. Rus- sell Reynolds, a search firm, calls them “co-pilots”. At one high- Emperor’s new clothes profile company, Twitter, the CFO, Anthony Noto, is arguably do- But the example of Mr Fastow should serve as a warning. CFOs ing most ofthe piloting. have shorter job tenures than CEOs—a little over five years on av- Finance chiefsplay a growingrole in shapingthe scope and di- erage at American listed companies, compared with seven years rection of a company. They no longer wield the red pen just on for the boss. They also owe a higher proportion of their pay to the basis ofwhat they see in the accounts. They do so through the performance than anyothercorporate officerotherthan the CEO. prism of corporate strategy, which they are deeply involved in At the same time they are subjected to a welterofconflicting pres- setting. They allocate capital with a view to bringing that strategy sures—acting as spin-doctors and bean-counters as well as cor- to life—evaluating how well a particular scheme fits into a firm’s porate strategists and auditors. EY, in a recent report on finance long-term vision and counting out the beans accordingly. bosses, begins with a warning that “it’s become a job that may be CFOs also play a growing role in overseeing corporate opera- too big for any one individual to do well.” The growing number tions. Two decades ago, they seldom took their noses out of their oftoolsata CFO’sdisposal mayallowthem to measure corporate spreadsheets. They now spend much of their time inspecting op- performance more accurately but it also enables them to shuffle erations—droppingin here, there and everywhere to see what the figures to produce the best results. accounts mean in practice. This detailed knowledge of the cor- In 2013 Mr Fastow explained his behaviour on the ground that porate landscape increases their influence. he thought “that’s how the game is played…Youhave a complex The other province colonised by CFOs is external relations. set of rules and the objective is to use the rules to your advan- They spend plenty of time talking to investors, board directors, tage.” Finance chiefs may expend more of their efforts nowadays regulators and other stakeholders. Analysts will often pay more satisfying regulations, but they also spend a great deal oftime us- attention to the views ofthe finance supremo than to those ofthe ingdevices such as “internal charges” (transferpricing) to concen- ultimate boss. Ruth Porat, who iscurrentlyCFO ofAlphabet, Goo- trate the company’sprofitsin countrieswith the lowesttaxes. The gle’sparentcompany, and previouslyhad the same job atMorgan term “imperial” is never a good thing when applied to a cor- Stanley, a bank, is particularly influential on Wall Street. The porate officer—in particular when that individual’s principal job same can even be true ofboards: Leo Apotheker’s days as CEO of is to keep his company on the straight and narrow. 7 $1.315B

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Also in this section 74 Buttonwood: Sinking bond yields 75 The boss of India’s central bank 76 Wells Fargo’s investment bank 76 Measuring international data ﬂows 77 Rejigging emerging-market indices 78 Free exchange: The link between gun laws and gun violence

For daily analysis and debate on economics, visit Economist.com/economics

Oil supply that it was more than a temporary decline. But the number of rigs, and hence produc- Rigonomics tion, eventually plummeted, helping to bring the market closer to balance. Shale-oil seems to be moderatingprices on the way back up, too. On June 10th, the day Baker Hughes, an American oil-services provider, reported that for a second week in a row there had been a tiny uptick Is $50 a barrel enough to revive global oil production? in drilling in America, West Texas Interme- N THE wilds ofwestern Texas, a flicker of has brought a new dynamic to global oil diate (WTI), the American crude-oil bench- Ilife has returned to the fracking, or hy- markets: the ability to flex output up and mark, fell back below $50 a barrel. If shale- draulic-fracturing, industry. In the past four down more quickly than conventional oil oil is indeed acting like the valve on a pres- weeks nine idled oil rigs have been put drilling, rather like factories responding to sure cooker, regulating the market when it backto workin the Permian basin, the rich- changes in demand. Conventional oil- gets too hot or cold, the result should be a estofAmerica’sshale-oil provinces. That is fields take years to develop and then pro- less volatile oil price. onlya tinyfraction ofthe 429 thathad been duce oil for decades, leaving oil output rel- But the valve may not function per- taken out of service over the previous 18 atively unresponsive to short-term price fectly. One question is the sustainability of months as the oil price plunged, at one movements. Shale wells, in contrast, take the recent price rise. Shale-oil executives point hitting a low of under $30 a barrel. just a few weeks to drill and frack, and remember with chagrin the false rally of But it is the first four-weekrise in a year. have a lifespan of only a few years, so pro- early 2015, which led them to maintain out- In recent weeks the oil price has recov- duction quickly falls ifdrilling abates. put longer than they should have. They ered to around $50 a barrel (see chart). Shale-oil supply did indeed prove more note that the oil industry is still producing Scott Sheffield, boss of Pioneer Natural Re- elastic than the conventional sort when almost 1m barrels a day (b/d) more than sources, one of the top producers in the prices were falling, albeit with a delay. the world is consuming. The International Permian, points out that futures prices for When the rout started in 2014, it took the Energy Agency, an industry forecaster, said delivery in a year’s time have also risen shale-oil industrymonths to accept the fact on June 14th that demand will not match above $50 a barrel, which allows him to supply until next year. “You don’t want to lock in a decent profit on any new wells he add rigs and then bring them back down can bring into production by then. Hence A rig in a poke again,” says Mr Sheffield. he may soon raise the number of rigs his Another concern is how quickly supply NYMEX crude oil futures* Number of oil rigs firm has drilling in the Permian from 12 to $ per barrel in US, ’000 can really be ramped up. Rigs have been at least 17 and perhaps as many as 22. “The idled forso long that it may take months of 125 2.5 Permian has bottomed out,” he says. Front month maintenance before they can be brought In addition to drilling more wells, some 100 2.0 back into service. Workers may also have firms are planning to frack mothballed June 2017 found new jobs, making it hard to entice ones—wells that have been drilled but not 75 contract 1.5 them back. Financial strains are consider- yet pumped full ofsand, water and chemi- 50 1.0 able, too: about 70 shale-related firms have cals to open up fissures allowing oil gone bust in America since the start of last trapped in shale to flow out. Others are 25 0.5 year, and those on financial life support simply pushing their pumps harder, which 0 0 will focus more on paying down debt than uses more energy but may be worth it at 2014 15 16 on investing in more production. $50 a barrel. Sources: Baker Hughes; If production does start to race ahead, All this supports the claim that fracking Thomson Reuters *West Texas Intermediate the recent decline in shale-oil firms’ costs1 74 Finance and economics The Economist June 18th 2016

2 may reverse. Per Magnus Nysveen of Ry- number of unused rigs is so high that the peak last June, meaning higher production stad Energy, a consultancy, says producers industry will be able to restart several hun- could be dwarfed bycutbackselsewhere in have become so much more efficient and dred before costs start to rise. But he agrees the 95m b/d global oil industry. Wood Mac- drilling contractors so much cheaper that that $50 is not enough to boost output sig- kenzie calculates that oil and gas producers American shale firms can, on average, nificantly. R.T. Dukes ofWood Mackenzie, a have promised to cut at least $1 trillion make a healthy10% return with WTI at $39 consultancy, says that if the price stays at from their planned investment in explora- a barrel, down from $82 in 2013. Buthe reck- $50 until the end ofthe year, investment in tion and production in 2015-20, reducing ons there is little room left to squeeze out shale production will remain “flat to projected output by the equivalent of a additional costs. What’s more, shale-oil down”. If it is between $50-60, investment whopping 7 billion b/d. firms’ service contracts are of short dura- will be “flatto up”. Onlyabove $60 a barrel Industry bulls, including top executives tion, so if rigs or workers become scarce, will it be “up across the board”, he says. among the biggest producers, believe that prices can rise very quickly. For every $1in- “We don’t expect supply to turn on a dime, in focusingon smallershale firmsas poten- crease in the oil price, Mr Nysveen expects but we do thinkdeclines will slow down.” tial swing producers, the markets are miss- a $1increase in costs. Even if America’s oil industry does re- ing a longer-term supply drought caused Mr Sheffield disputes this. He says the vive, it is still only about 1m b/d below its by the evaporation of investment in con- 1 Buttonwood Feeling low

Bond markets keep defying expectations HATEVER happened to the power ated only 38,000 net new jobs in May. markets, the probability of a Leave vote Wof the bond markets? Bond traders It is not just the Fed that has boosted has risen from a low of17%to 37%. were supposed to act as “vigilantes”, bond markets. Both the European Central Donald Trump’s erratic policy state- keeping spendthrift governments in Bank and the Bank of Japan continue to ments make it hard for investors to get a check. But despite high levels of govern- purchase bonds through their quantita- handle on what will happen if the busi- ment debt, they have not been selling tive-easing (QE) programmes. Just as im- nessman wins the White House in No- bonds, pushing yields higher. In fact, the portantly, both central banks have im- vember.Hisstatedintentiontoreducetax- cost of government borrowing is as low, posed negative rates on at least some ofthe es without compensating spending cuts or lower, than it has ever been. In many reserves commercial banks keep with seems likely to inflate the deficit; that countries, investors have driven the price them. In that context, even a marginally should be bad news for bonds. In the of government bonds so high that they negative nominal bond yield may look at- short term, however, those worries are are, in effect, paying for the privilege of tractive. offset by the broader uncertainty about lending to the government. Around $10 Investors tend to head for the perceived what a Trump presidency would mean— trillion-worth of bonds now have nega- safety of government bonds when they and uncertainty is good forbonds. tive yields. judge the political or economic outlook to On China, the recent data have been Bill Gross, a veteran bond manager at be risky.Toby Nangle of Columbia Thread- rather mixed. Investment in fixed assets Janus Capital, warned recently that nega- needle, a fund-management group, says was up by 7.5% in the year to May,the sec- tive yields were a “supernova” that that investors, contemplating the short- ond-lowest reading since 2012. Invest- would explode at some point. He is not term dangersofBrexit, a Trumppresidency ment in manufacturing grew by only1.3%, the first to argue that bonds have become and a China slowdown, are opting for the says Société Générale, a bank. The IMF re- ridiculously overvalued. Pessimists have safety of government bonds despite their cently warned about the economic im- been calling the top of the bond market low yields. pact of China’s rising corporate debt. But since 2011. The approach of Britain’s referendum the Chinese consumer looks strong: retail In January almost two-thirds of global on EU membership on June 23rd has fo- sales were up by10% in the year to May. fund managers were gloomy about the cused minds. Recent opinion polls have If Britain votes to remain in the EU,if outlook for government bonds. So far, suggested that Britain may well vote to the American economy perks up (and the however, this year has been another dis- leave the EU, with one showing the Leave Fed tightens policy), and if the Chinese appointment for the bears. Since the start camp ten points ahead. In the gambling economy stabilises at a growth rate of of 2016, ten-year Treasury yields have 6.5-7%, then it is not hard to imagine bond dropped from 2.27% to 1.59%, British gilt yields heading back to their levels at the yields of the same maturity have fallen Limbo champions start ofthe year. But Japan has shown that from 1.96% to 1.24%, and the equivalent Ten-year government-bond yields, % bond yields can stay low for a very long German yields have plunged from 0.63% time. There is no sign yet of the sustained into negative territory. 2.5 rise in inflation or in productivity that United States This was supposed to be the year 2.0 would bring GDP growth, or bond yields, when the economic recovery was so well 1.5 backto what were seen as normal levels a established that monetary policy, in Britain decade ago. And there is a lot of demand America at least, returned to normal. But 1.0 for government bonds—from pension Germany after pushing up rates last December, the 0.5 funds, insurance companies and central Fed has since stood pat. A month ago + banks,andascollateralforinterbank tran- 0 there were growing expectations of a rate – sactions. There may be a few bond-mar- rise in June; it didn’t happen. America’s 0.5 ket vigilantes around, but they have been GDP growth rate in the first quarter was Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun effectively neutered. 2016 disappointing. The latest non-farm pay- Source: Thomson Reuters roll numbers showed the economygener- Economist.com/blogs/buttonwood The Economist June 18th 2016 Finance and economics 75

2 ventional wells. This, they add, may be ex- initial public offering of Saudi Aramco, the Though a relative newcomer to the cut acerbated by a recent upswing in demand state oil company,it would make sense for and thrust of Indian policymaking, Mr Ra- in America, China and elsewhere, fuelled the kingdom to pump more oil to increase jan (pictured on the left below, with Mr by lower prices. This could cause a sudden the company’s value. What is more, with Modi) knows better than to offer any com- surge in prices, to as much as $80 a barrel. copious reserves still in the ground, the ment on his reappointment. “What is im- Yet not everyone has discounted the Saudis may see logic in stepping up pro- portant is to not personalise this office. It possibility that oil prices will plummet duction in orderto extractasmuch value as will survive any governor, it is bigger than again. A lot depends on whether Saudi they can before technology and climate any governor,” he says. Arabia has the capacity to raise production change dampen the world’s appetite for Yet he has suffered a spate of ad homi- substantially, as its deputy crown prince, oil. A price of $50 a barrel may well be sus- nem attacks, some from within the ruling Muhammad bin Salman, has indicated it tainable, but the battle of the sheikhs and BJP party. One complaint hinges on his will. Some argue thatahead ofthe planned the shalemen is not over yet. 7 supposed lack of patriotism, as evidenced by his American work permit (he is on leave from the University of Chicago). An- India’s central bank other depicts him as a stooge of the Con- gress party, which appointed him to the A governor with a view job but is now in opposition. Amid all the jibes, relatively little attention has been paid to Mr Rajan’s performance in the job. His record so far is good—though many of his reforms have yet to be tested. MUMBAI Shortly before he took over in 2013 the “taper tantrum” struck. The Federal Re- There are challenges ahead ifRaghuram Rajan stays at India’s central bank serve held out the prospect of tighter mon- AGHURAM RAJAN need not even etarypolicyin America, promptingmoney Rleave his office atop the Reserve Bank From a high base to flee emerging markets. The rupee was of India’s (RBI) tower in Mumbai to gauge India falling, causing inflation to rise. Wary Indi- two factors central to India’s prosperity. RAJAN BECOMES GOVERNOR OF RBI ans were importing more gold as a result, 12 Looking down, the ships sailing to nearby Consumer prices putting further pressure on the exchange docks provide clues as to the buoyancy of % increase on a year earlier rate. Mr Rajan’s arrival, and prompt adop- 9 foreign trade: the imposition of steel tariffs Policy rate, % tion of an informal inflation target, helped earlier this year, a knock-on effect from to restore calm. China’s slowdown, all but stopped traffic 6 Progress towards meeting that target— for a time, he notes. Looking up, the skies essentiallyhalvinginflation from 10% to 5% also offer troubling portents. Mumbai 3 (see chart)—has been made easier by tum- should have been drenched by seasonal bling commodity prices, especially oil. De- rain for over a week by now. The belated 0 spite a recent jump, food prices are lower onset of the monsoon has already pushed 2013 14 15 16 than they might be after two years of up food prices, hampering the central Sources: Reserve Bank of India; Haver Analytics drought thanks to sound government poli- bank’s crusade against inflation. cy. But many wonder ifthe structural rigid- Indian policymakers have no control vestors are wondering whether they are ities that make India’s the highest inflation overthe weatherorthe health ofthe global dealing with a lame-duck central banker. rate in Asia have been tackled. economy. But they can eliminate a third The rupee has gyrated, bond investors Mr Rajan favours incremental reforms source of concern. Mr Rajan’s three-year have quailed and tongues have wagged overwholesale ones. He has made it easier term expires in September, but the govern- despite the admonition ofNarendra Modi, to move money in and out ofIndia, but not ment has prevaricated about granting him the prime minister, to pay no attention to abolished capital controls in the way you a second one. Both locals and foreign in- “this administrative subject”. might have expected from a former IMF chief economist. He does not try to dictate the level of the rupee, but still stage-manages it. Licences for new banks are no longer rationed in the manner of the “licence raj”; they are instead awarded to all those who show they are fit and proper. But the existing banks, which the RBI oversees, are in grim shape. Lenders remain bound by intricate rules that dictate what assets they can hold (over half must consist of government bonds, reserves at the central bankor loans to particular industries, such as agricul- ture). Meanwhile state-owned lenders, which make up 70% ofthe bankingsystem, have huge problems with bad loans. Some will breach regulatory standards on capital absentpromised newmoneyfrom government. Even healthy banks are foiling monetary policy by not passing lower interest rates on to clients. But Mr Rajan largely in- You cut the deficit, I’ll cut rates herited this mess and has at least forced 1 76 Finance and economics The Economist June 18th 2016

2 bankers to admit to their bad debts. ries of a skyscraper under construction in ca’s biggest banks from growing much big- Mr Rajan’s stature has helped attract in- Manhattan, which will include two big ger (Wells is already the third-biggest by vestors. Domestically, it has given him a trading floors. assets, with a balance-sheet of$1.8 trillion). confidence to speak his mind. When gov- Wells’s investment-banking operation There is talkofrequiringthe biggest ones to ernment ministers gloat that India has the isstill farsmallerthan those ofthe giantsof hold even more capital, beyond the sur- world’s fastest-growing economy, he likes Wall Street: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman charge already imposed on “systemically to point out how low a bar that is. When Sachs, Morgan Stanley and BankofAmeri- important” ones. In that sort of climate, a ministers publicly urge him to cut interest ca. But its equity underwriting in America business which could make more efficient rates, he pushes back by demanding a has surpassed that of Deutsche Bank, use of existing clients and which holds out more balanced budget first. which had sought to elbow in to the top the promise (often forlorn) of higher re- The RBI is not technically independent, ranks. Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan turns on capital is hard to ignore. 7 which makes the process of appointing its Chase, recently noted that Wells was “ac- boss especially sensitive. The governor’s tively”, “aggressively” and “successfully” three-year term is the shortest of any G20 building an American investment bank. International data flows country.Recent governors have been given There are clear limits to Wells’s ambi- second terms as much as seven months in tion. The Wachovia deal notwithstanding, Priceless advance. IfMrModi wantsto curb specula- it is not fond oftakeovers, which it believes tion about the job, he could do so easily by bring unforeseen problems and employ- reappointing Mr Rajan now. It would be a ees who will bolt unless rewarded (those deserved extension. 7 dreadful investment bankers again), at a cost that would make its existing staff bit- Trade in data seems very important, but ter. It also has limited interest in expanding there are no good, er, data on it Investment banking abroad, since it does not want to have to navigate multiple regulatory regimes. LTHOUGH trade in goods and services Diving into the Fully 95% of the employees of its invest- Ais sluggish, international flows of data ment bank are in America; 90% of its rev- are exploding. According to the McKinsey mire enues originate there. Global Institute, a think-tank within a con- Instead, Wells hopes to grow in Ameri- sultancy, data zipped across borders at a New York ca by helpingmore ofits corporate custom- rate of 211 terabits per second in 2014. That ers buy derivatives, issue debt or equity, or is equivalent to 1.3 Libraries of Congress Wells Fargo leaps into a swamp from navigate takeovers. Investment banking per second, and 45 times more than in which most banks are retreating currently produces about 5% of the bank’s 2005. McKinsey reckons that this torrent HEN Wells Fargo’s competitors were revenues; it says it would like the number contributed more to global growth in 2014 Wspending fortunesbuilding up big in- to rise to as much as15%, but no higher. than trade in goods. vestment-banking operations in the 1980s Wells’ssudden enthusiasm forthe busi- The data deluge is changing trade in and 1990s, the bank’s chiefexecutive at the ness may seem counterintuitive, but it has three main ways. First, it is spurring con- time, Richard Kovacevich, refused to fol- always sold itself as a fast-growing com- ventional trade in goods and services, low suit, joking that the business would be pany. Retail and commercial banking are through orders on internet platforms like a good one to get into were it not for all the competitive businesses; last year Wells’s Amazon and eBay. Second, a growing people who worked in it. Instead he con- revenues were up by a mere 2%—and that share of the products being traded is digi- centrated on building up a nationwide net- was still better than most ofits rivals. Regu- tal, from music files to insurance policies. work of branches (“stores” in Wells-speak) lators are also trying to discourage Ameri- And third, data are increasingly important to take in deposits and sell mortgages, cred- lubricants for global supply chains. Com- it cards and insurance. This strategy was panies ship vast datasets around the globe, vindicated when the financial crisis struck, In the running using them to improve the efficiency of turningonce lucrative investment-banking US share issues underwritten, $bn their operations. JPMorgan franchises into millstones. Wells, mean- 6 Yet quantifying and valuing these flows while, became the most profitable big Goldman is difficult. The McKinsey study yields im- Sachs bankin America. pressive numbers, but relies on rough mea- But an odd thing happened in the pro- sures, which are valued using statistical cess. Wells’s strength during the crisis al- JPMorgan 5 correlations rather than precise measure- lowed it to snap up Wachovia, a regional Merrill Lynch ments. Experts agree that data flows are bank whose dense network in the eastern Bank of America growing at an amazing pace, but also that 4 part of country perfectly complemented Morgan Stanley measuring them is dispiritingly difficult. Wells’s in the west. Wachovia also hap- Statisticians face three big problems. pened to have a sizeable investment bank. First, current trade data does not usually re- Goldman Sachs Many assumed Wells would promptly 3 cord how services are provided. On May UBS Credit Suisse sell the unit, or shut it down. Instead, it has Citi 25th America’s Bureau ofEconomic Analy- Citi expanded it, even as other banks have Credit Suisse sis published new estimates showing that Lehman Brothers been hacking away frantically at their in- 2 around half of American exports of ser- vestment-bankingarms. In the firstquarter Barclays vices could be delivered digitally, and that Morgan Stanley of 2007, before the takeover of Wachovia, Bear Stearns the fraction was increasing. But whether Bank of America UBS Wells had no investment-banking revenue Deutsche Bank Wells Fargo they actually are or not is unknown. at all; Wachovia underwrote $831m-worth RBC 1 Second, there is no clear correlation be- Wachovia Deutsche Bank of share offerings, putting it twelfth in the BMO tween the volume of data and its value. American rankings. In the first quarter of Twitter feeds are not as valuable as digital this year, Wells underwrote $1.23 billion of 0 design files. According to Cisco, a maker of share offerings, puttingit ninth in the rank- Q1 2007 Q1 2016 networking gear, video accounted for 70% ings (see chart). It recently bought six sto- Source: Bloomberg of global internet traffic in 2015, a share it 1 The Economist June 18th 2016 Finance and economics 77

Emerging-market indices Stocks and stones

HONG KONG Emerging markets can be rich orpoor, as long as they are liquid N JULY2008 outraged investors in qualify forinclusion. Mainland shares IKarachi, Pakistan’s commercial capital, will remain ineligible fornow, MSCI pelted the local stockexchange with decided on June 14th, largely because stones after a plunge in share prices. In China permits foreign investors to repa- Lahore investors blocked the road to the triate only 20% oftheir holdings each city’s exchange with burning tyres. In month and insists on vetting all products Islamabad a mob set fire to share certif- linked to its shares. icates. The panicked exchanges simply Other emerging markets sufferfrom prohibited furtherdeclines, imposing a smallness. Only three ofPeru’s listed “floor rule” that barred prices from falling companies are big enough (with a market below the level ofAugust 27th 2008. capitalisation ofat least $1.27 billion) and Emerging markets are, by definition, liquid enough (with at least15% ofits edgier places to invest than developed shares changing hands each year) to ones. But not anything goes. A prominent qualify. Ifthe number ofeligible firms emerging-market benchmarkcompiled falls below three, MSCI said this week, by MSCI, an index provider, includes Peru would be ejected from the emerg- only 23 stockmarkets that satisfy its crite- ing-market club. ria for size, liquidity and openness to What about Pakistan? It long ago foreign investors. Those that do not make rescinded the floor rule, and now boasts the cut are relegated to an index of “fron- nine eligible firms. This week, therefore, tier markets” or left out ofMSCI’s interna- MSCI said it would readmit Pakistan to its tional indices altogether. That was Paki- emerging-market index in May 2017. It stan’s fate in December 2008, when it will be the poorest member. The news was stripped ofemerging-market status. was enough to lift the Karachi Stock 2 thinks will increase to 82% by 2020. If The countries that still carry that Exchange to a record, over 322% higher growing data volumes reflect growing cat- status are an odd mix. Some are surpris- than the floor set backin 2008. video consumption, then “So what?” asks ingly wealthy: Qataris are richer than Robert Atkinson of the Information Tech- Americans. Others are strikingly poor. nology and Innovation Foundation. On India, forexample, has a GDP per person Mixed bags top of that, there may be lots of double- ofonly $1,600 at market exchange rates, GDP per person, 2015, $’000 counting. Data flowing through America lower than all but two ofthe frontier 80 Switzerland could be in transit from Canada to Mexico. markets (see chart). Indeed MSCI does Qatar Finally, identifying where exactly data not take income per person into account 60 are adding value is nightmarish. Interna- when distinguishing emerging from United States tional e-commerce, which accounts for as frontier markets. India qualifies for other much as 12% of all trade in goods and ser- reasons. Because ofits sheer size and 40 vices, according to McKinsey, is enabled by institutional sophistication, its stock- Kuwait international data flows. But none of that market is relatively vast. It boasts no 20 value is attributed to the data involved. fewer than 73 listings that meet MSCI’s Portugal China More fundamentally, bytes shuttling criteria forheft and liquidity. Peru Pakistan Bangladesh across borders are mostly unpriced. Data China is the biggest emerging market India 0 Developed Emerging Frontier are rarely valuable in themselves; they by far, accounting forabout a quarter of markets markets markets tend to generate value only indirectly. Goo- the index’s value. But only Chinese Source: IMF gle relies on global data flows to support e- stocks listed in Hong Kong and America mails and its search engine, but generates revenues from clicks on adverts. Compa- nies like Caterpillar or Boeing use data measure it both present huge headaches are restricting flows in various ways with transmitted by sensors in their products to forstatisticians. Governmentsand interna- little sense of the economic consequences. improve efficiency, but the data is not tional agencies are increasingly focusing China, India, Indonesia and Russia, among priced as it flows. When cash is so discon- on this informational black hole: they are others, have imposed rules about where nected from data, teasing out the latter’s considering options from simply asking firms can store data about their local cus- value requires lots ofhead-scratching. firms how much theirdata are worth to de- tomers. A better sense of the costs of such For now, policymakers have to rely on manding more detailed information on moves might prompt a change ofheart. anecdotal evidence from companies the nature of data flows from internet One thing is clear: there is a gulf be- claiming to use data to make savings and firms. It does not help that such flows are tween the experience offirms, which insist generate value. Another hint is the willing- constantly evolving: at the moment, most data flows are crucial, and policymakers, ness ofcompanies like Microsoft and Face- data traffic is to people, but this may soon who have no sense oftheir macroeconom- book to invest in new cables to carry data be superseded by inter-gadget traffic. ic importance, says Joshua Meltzer of the around the world. (Telegeography, a re- The volume and value of data are not Brookings Institution, a think-tank. The search firm, estimates that a transatlantic just academic concerns. Governments present situation, in Mr Atkinson’s view, is cable costs $200m-300m to build). around the world, keen to protect their citi- “like setting tariffs without knowing how Knowing what to measure and how to zens’ privacy or bolster national security, much you’re exporting”. 7 78 Finance and economics The Economist June 18th 2016 Free exchange A history of violence

Evidence is growing that gun violence in America is a product ofweakgun laws ITH awful, numbing regularity Americans use high-pow- gress ordered the Centres for Disease Control to spend less mon- Wered, high-capacity firearms to carry out mass shootings. ey contemplating how to reduce shootings. And with awful regularity, efforts to reform America’s gun laws The main difficulty for academics studying the link between in the wake of such tragedies fail. (Indeed, a recent paper pub- guns and gun crime, however, is the lackofa true counterfactual. lished by the Harvard Business School found that a mass shoot- A researcher cannot hold all other things constant while varying ing leads to a 75% rise in measures easing gun control in states the stringency of gun laws in order to isolate the effect of those with Republican-controlled legislatures.) More than 30,000 peo- laws on the incidence of violence. That leaves open the pos- ple die in shootings in America each year; no other rich country sibility that any reductions in crime following a tightening ofgun suffers anywhere near that level ofgun violence. laws may be rooted in other, unrelated causes. Crime rates have Opponents of gun control argue that such figures have things tumbled in many rich countries in recent decades, complicating backwards. In their view, widespread gun ownership deters any analysis ofthe role ofguns. crime, and thus benefits society.Advocates of tighter restrictions Nonetheless, some events can come close to offering an infor- on gun ownership disagree: they believe the spur to gun crime mative counterfactual. The aftermath of a mass shooting in Aus- from the ready availability of weapons far outweighs the deter- tralia provides one example. In 1996 a gunman killed 32 people rent effects. Social scientists have long struggled to adjudicate, with a semi-automatic weapon much like the one used in the Or- since, on the surface at least, the data are ambiguous. lando shooting on June 12th. Australia’s lawmakers quickly Pro-gun groups point out that rates of gun ownership tend to passed strict and sweeping gun-control rules. Semi-automatic ri- be highest in rural, sparsely populated states, where crime rates fles and pump-action shotguns were banned, and the govern- are low. By the same token, over the past two decades, as the ment offered to buy weapons already in circulation from their number of guns in America has risen sharply, crime rates have owners (a programme of comparable scale in America would re- fallen.Yet even as the number of guns in America has grown, the claim an estimated 90m guns). share of households with a gun has dropped steadily. Research Australia has suffered only two shooting sprees since then, published in 2000 by Mark Duggan of the University of Chicago claiminga total ofseven lives. Adecline in the rate of killingswith concluded that the homicide rate had been falling in tandem guns, which was already under way before these rules came in, with the proportion of households where guns were kept. accelerated rapidly. Total gun deaths including suicides also fell. What’s more, the homicide rate was fallingwith a lag, suggesting Before the change in the law the rate of deaths from firearms in that reduced gun ownership was causing the decline, and was Australia was about a quarter of that in America; afterwards, it not simply a side-effect ofa fallingcrime rate. fell to about a tenth of the American rate. In 2014 America suf- Other studies have reached similar conclusions. An analysis fered about 10.5 fatal shootings per 100,000 people; Australia re- published in 2014, for example, using detailed county-level data corded just1. assembled by the National Research Council, a government- funded body, suggested that laws that allow people to carry The safety catch weaponsare associated with a substantial rise in the incidence of It is not just the relationship between gun ownership and gun vi- assaults with a firearm. It also found evidence that such laws olence that is becoming clearer. Evidence is also building that mightalso lead to increasesin othercrimes, like rape and robbery. even relatively modest gun-control measures reduce gun deaths. A recent survey of 130 studies concluded that strict gun-control An analysis published in 2015 in the Annual Review of Public laws do indeed reduce deaths caused by firearms. Health noted that state laws banning possession of a gun by indi- Links between gun ownership and violence are less well es- viduals under a restraining order for domestic violence reduce tablished than they might be, in part because lobbyists for gun the incidence of “intimate partner homicide” by 10%. The same rightshave pushed to reduce publicfundingforresearch on the is- analysisreportsthatfirearm homicide ratesrose by25% in the five sue. In 2013the Journal of American Medicine published an article years after Missouri repealed its law requiring permits to pur- on this phenomenon, describing how in 1996, for instance, Con- chase a gun, even as the national rate nationwide fell. Public-opinion surveys show widespread support for tighter controls on gun-ownership in America. Indeed, nearly half ofRe- Uniquely deadly publicans, the party most sympathetic to gun ownership, favour a ban on “assault-style” weapons. Their will is frustrated, how- Homicides per 100,000 people Civilian firearms per person Selected countries, 2012 or latest Selected countries, 2007 ever, by a political system that enables passionate minorities to stymie legislation. 012345 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 In 2013, in the wake of the Sandy Hook massacre, in which 20 United United schoolchildren were shot dead, two senators, one Democrat and States States of which: one Republican, introduced a measure that would have required Canada by guns Switzerland background checks on most gun sales. It failed to move forward despite a majority vote in its favour, because supporters were un- Australia Canada able to assemble the supermajority needed to overcome a procedural hurdle. Seemingly intractable disputes in American politics Britain Germany do sometimes give way to overdue reform. More probably, Amer- ica will make scant progress in dealing with its gun problem until Spain Britain it begins to resolve its broader political problem. 7

Sources: Small Arms Survey; UNODC Economist.com/blogs/freeexchange Science and technology The Economist June 18th 2016 79

Also in this section 80 Microbes and autism 81 Detecting scientiﬁc sloppiness 81 Science and the charts 82 Cleaning up with date stones

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Software nologies’ chief marketing officer, the main advantage game engines give organisa- Engines of creation tions is the ability to do instantaneously what used to take minutes or even hours. Before such engines were applied to the task, creating high-quality renderings required computers to crunch tediously through the calculations needed to simu- The slickgraphics ofmodern video-games are spreading everfurtheroutside their late how light rays bounce around rooms native industry and interact with objects. Some individual UNE 22nd is the 20th birthday of Epic Games, of Cary, North Carolina). Ar- frames of “Toy Story”, the first fully com- J“Quake”. Its release, by a Texan firm chitecture businesses have long used puter-animated film, took 30 hours to pro- called id Software, wasa milestone in the graphics to give their customers virtual duce. Game engines avoid all that by em- history of video games. “Quake”, a grim tours of as-yet-unbuilt edifices. But, says ploying a host of mathematical shortcuts and gory fantasy “shoot-’em-up”, pioneer- Richard Woolsgrove, who is in charge of to make images 30 times a second or more. ed many now-commonplace features of “visualisation” atPLP, these were often just The price is a lower-quality image. But as computerised play. Its most striking inno- pre-cooked animations. Game engines, by computing power has grown, the trade-off vation was its fully three-dimensional contrast, let clients wander wherever they between speed and quality has become world. This was drawn by a piece of soft- like. Mr Woolsgrove’s group has created less and less noticeable (see picture: the ware, called a game engine, regarded at the virtual versions of proposed buildings us- game-engine version is above, the photo- time as jaw-dropping. ing one or other of the engines it is testing, graph from life is below). These days “Quake” looks like a muddy and invited people to walk around and in- If artists want to add to the renderings, brown mess. Two decades of advances in side them, usinga video-game controller to speed also lets them tweak their creations processing power, allied with cut-throat do so. The ability to explore a virtual build- on the fly. Ifthe lighting is not quite right, or competition between games designers, ing in this way, Mr Woolsgrove says, gets a piece of virtual furniture is made of the have advanced the art tremendously. clients much more excited than they were wrong material, that can be changed with- Game engines are now a product in their by the old approach. out waiting while the scene is laboriously own right. Besides drawing the graphics, redrawn. This dramatically speeds up the they handle tasks like simulating physics Game on production process. (such as gravity, say, or object collisions) Architects are not the only non-gamers in- One way to thinkofa video game is as a and connecting players to each other on- terested in extending the uses of game en- primitive sort of virtual reality, in which a line. They are, in other words, the plat- gines. NASA, America’s space agency, is a consistent, computerised world is generat- forms upon which games are built. Most fan. It is experimenting with a virtual-reali- ed and then presented to the player games companies buy them pre-made, off ty (VR) system based on Unreal to train as- through a screen. “Proper” virtual reality, the shelf. And not just games companies. tronauts for stints on the International in which the illusion is made all-consum- Game engines have become so good at cre- Space Station. And this year’s Game Devel- ing by being supplied through a headset ating high-quality facsimiles of reality that opers’ Conference, an industry shindig that blocks out the real world, is all the rage they are attracting the attention of firms held every March in San Francisco, fea- this year. Two retail headsets, one from that, until now, have had nothing to do tured an eclecticrange offirms, from McLa- Facebook and one from HTC, have already with video gaming at all. ren, a British sports-car company, to Dis- been launched; a third, from Sony, is ex- One such outsider is PLP Architecture, a ney, an American entertainment giant, pected before the end of the year. For now, big London partnership. PLP has been ex- talking about how they were using game VR is aimed mostly at gamers. But Tim perimenting with two leading game en- engines either to sell products or to help Sweeney, Epic’s founder, points out that gines, Unity (made by Unity Technologies, design those products in the first place. even non-gamingVR applications—such as of San Francisco) and Unreal (made by According to Clive Downie, Unity Tech- a relaxing beach simulation or a shared 1 80 Science and technology The Economist June 18th 2016

2 virtual workspace—require slick, fast,com- verse, a small company based in Oslo, has puter-generated imagery of exactly the its way. Future Universe plans to use game sort that his company sells. engines to merge video games with live The same is true of VR’s cousin, aug- television. According to Bard-Anders Ka- mented reality (AR), in which computer- sin,oneofthefirm’sfounders,theirfirsten- generated imagery is painted on top of the deavour will be a green-screened game real world. Again, big firms are cooking up show,with a game engine drawing a virtu- consumer products. Google is working on al world around the contestants. When the a new version of its delayed Glass headset, result is broadcast, viewers with tablets or and Microsoft is preparing for the release smartphones will be able to jump into the of an AR product dubbed the HoloLens. action—such as a car race—and play along- Game engines could become to VR and AR side those in the studio. what Windows is to the PC—the base layer Future Universe’s approach has attract- on which other products are built. ed interest from TV networks. Mr Hatch Nor need those products be intended says he knows ofat least ten big TV compa- only for retail consumers. Ncam is a spe- nies that are actively experimenting with cial-effects firm based in Soho, an arty dis- game engines. He speculates about using trict of London. It makes its living develop- the engines to do everything from training ing game-engine-based technology that car mechanics to building theme parks. lets film and TV directors drop virtual ob- “Imagine,” he posits, “if your kids could jects straight into scenes in real-time. A re- drop into a scene with Olaf and Elsa [a cent demonstration involved Nic Hatch, snowman and a princess from “Frozen”, a Bacterial protection service Ncam’s boss, setting up one of the firm’s Disney film released in 2013].” Parents, special cameras in the lobby of its office worried about the costs of film spin-offs, cies the animals’ faeces contained. and pointing the lens at the empty middle may be less than delighted by that particu- Dr Costa-Mattioli and Dr Buffington of the room. A TV connected to the camera laraugmentation ofreality.The prospect of found that the offspring of mothers on the showed the same lobby, but with a con- a virtual sunloungeron a Caribbean island high-fat diet (which made these mothers vincing-looking McLaren sports car sitting oftheirchoice may help to ease the pain. 7 obese), tended to have problems socialis- in it. This was generated by Unreal from ing. On average they interacted with other computer models supplied by McLaren’s mice for only 22 seconds during a ten-mi- designers. The firm also has clips of com- Microbes and autism nute test. Offspring of normal-weight mentators walking around other virtual mothers, by contrast, interacted for an av- vehicles, explaining the finer points to Gut feelings erage of two minutes. Similarly, when viewers, and of weather forecasters shar- pups were given a choice of interacting ing studios with computer-generated tor- with anothermouse orwith an emptycup, nadoes that are, apparently, crossing the 55% of the offspring of obese mothers pre- American Midwest. ferred the cup. All the pups of normal- The killer app ofthis sort oftechnology, weight mothers preferred the company of The theory that bacteria are involved in though, will probably come in the film in- their fellow rodents. some cases ofautism gets a boost dustry, on the “green screens” in front of As expected, the gut bacteria of the which actors have to perform when com- NE of the less-known problems of obese mothers and their offspring were puter-generated scenes are to be added lat- Oobesity is that obese mothers are 50% quite different from, and less diverse than, er in a process called post-production. more likely than those ofnormal weight to those of other mice. The researchers’ ques- Green-screening requires actors to move give birth to children who go on to develop tion was whether restoring a normal set of around obstacles that are not there, and to autism. This correlation is perplexing, but bacteria to the pups of obese mothers interact with empty space where comput- some suspect it is connected to differences might improve their behaviour. To do this, er-generated characters will eventually between the gutbacteria ofthe overweight they took advantage of a tendency mice stand. This is hard. Done badly, the results and of those who are not. One researcher have to eat each others’ faeces. By housing can look wooden and artificial. Technol- who thinks this way is Mauro Costa-Mat- the offspring of obese mothers with those ogy like Ncam’s lets directors see what the tioli of Baylor College of Medicine, in of normal mothers, they thus reset to nor- special effects will look like while scenes Houston. He has just published evidence mal the gut floras of the pups. That done, are being filmed. They can thus manage in Cell that, in mice at least, a clear relation- theyfound the pups’ social interactions de- the actors sensibly, telling them exactly ship does exist between gut flora, obesity veloped normally, too. where to lookand how to behave. and social behaviour. What is particularly intriguing is that the culprit seems to be a The socialiser I’m the king of the swingers single bacterial species. This is an extraordinary result. It suggests Ncam’s products have already been em- Dr Costa-Mattioli and his colleague that a mouse’s gut bacteria are regulating ployed in big-budget films such as “White Shelly Buffington set up a series of experi- its behaviour. And further investigation House Down”. A remake of “The Jungle ments, each ofwhich involved feeding 100 showed how. A close examination of Book”, released this year by Disney, used female mice a normal diet or a high-fat diet which species are missing from the guts of Unity. Mr Downie points to “Adam”, a for eight weeks, getting those mice preg- obese mice and their offspring flagged up short sci-fi movie shot entirely in Unity, nant and then examining both the behav- one in particular, Lactobacillus reuteri (pic- and speculates that the first feature film iour and the gut flora of their offspring. To tured), which was nine times more abun- made from start to finish in a game engine monitor behaviour, the researchers put the dantin the pupsofnormal mothersthan in may not be faraway. MrHatch thinks game pups through tests that measured how those of obese mothers. This, the research- engines may one day make conventional long they spent interacting with strangers ers felt, was worth investigating because L. post-production obsolete. and with inanimate objects. To study the reuteri was shown, three years ago, to pro- Game engines may arrive on TV gut floras, they used a test called ribosom- mote the release of oxytocin, a hormone screenseven quicker, though, ifFuture Uni- al-RNA sequencing to identify which spe- that plays an important role in controlling 1 The Economist June 18th 2016 Science and technology 81

Detecting scientiﬁc sloppiness Come again?

A surprisingly simple test to checkresearch papers forerrors OWextremely stupid not to have been ifthe original numbers were accu- “Hthought ofthat!” Many statisti- rate and the mean had not been rounded. cians, confronted with the GRIM test That rounded product is then redivided might find themselves echoing Thomas by the sample size and the result of the Huxley’s words when he read about the calculation rounded to two decimal idea ofnatural selection. The GRIM test, places. Ifthis figure is not exactly the short for granularity-related inconsisten- same as the original mean (and it is not, cy ofmeans, is a simple way ofchecking forit is 5.94) then either the original mean whether the results ofsmall studies of or the sample size is incorrect. the sort beloved ofpsychologists (those When Mr Brown and Dr Heathers with fewer than100 participants) could test-drove their method on 71suitable be correct, even in principle. It has just papers published in three leading psy- been posted in PeerJ Preprints by Nicho- chology journals over the past five years, las Brown ofthe University Medical what they found justified the pessimistic Centre Groningen, in the Netherlands, sounding label they gave it. Just over half and James Heathers ofPoznan Universi- the papers they looked at failedthe test. ty ofMedical Sciences, in Poland. Ofthose,16 contained more than one Tounderstand the GRIM test, consider error. The two researchers got in touch Presenting scientific results an experiment in which participants with the authors ofthese, and also offive were asked to assess something (some- others where the lone errors looked Graphic details one else’s friendliness, say) on an integer particularly egregious, and asked them scale ofone to seven. The resulting paper for their data—the availability ofwhich says there were 49 participants and the was a precondition ofpublication in two mean oftheir assessments was 5.93. It ofthe journals. Only nine groups com- might appear that multiplying these plied, but in these nine cases examina- A scientificstudy ofthe importance of numbers should give an integer pro- tion ofthe data showed that there were, diagrams to science duct—ie, a whole number—since the indeed, errors. mean is the result ofdividing one integer The mistakes picked up looked acci- PICTURE is said to be worth a thou- by another. Ifthe product is not an inte- dental. Most were typos or the inclusion Asand words. That metaphor might be ger (as in this case, where the answer is ofthe wrong spreadsheet cells in a calcu- expected to pertain a fortiori in the case of 290.57), something looks wrong. lation. Nevertheless, in three cases they scientific papers, where a figure can bril- There is a wrinkle, though. Usually, were serious enough to change the main liantly illuminate an idea that might other- the published value ofthe mean is conclusion ofthe paper concerned. wise be baffling. Papers with figures in rounded to two decimal places, forcon- That, plus the failure of12 groups to them should thus be easier to grasp than venience. That rounding clearly affects make their data available at all, is alarm- those without. They should therefore whether the product ofit and the sample ing. But ifknowledge that the GRIM test reach larger audiences and, in turn, be size will be an integer. The GRIM test gets might be applied to their workmakes more influential simply by virtue of being around this by rounding the product future researchers less careless and more more widely read. But are they? Bill Howe itselfto the nearest integer (ie, 291), which open, then Mr Brown’s and Dr Heathers’s and his colleagues at the University of is what the result would have to have maths will have paid dividends. Washington, in Seattle, decided to find out. First, theytrained a computeralgorithm to distinguish between various sorts of fig- 2 mammalian social behaviour. control arms of the experiment had 29% ures—which they defined as diagrams, The next experiment was therefore ob- fewer such cells than did offspring of nor- equations, photographs, plots (such as bar vious. Dr Costa-Mattioli and Dr Buffington mal mothers. Those given L. reuteri in their charts and scatter graphs) and tables. They added L. reuteri to the drinking water of water, by contrast, had only 13% fewer. exposed their algorithm to between 400 both sorts of mouse pup. As controls, they That, apparently, was enough to abolish and 600 images of each of these types of gave similar pups either pure water or wa- detectable behavioural differences. figure until it could distinguish them with ter that had heat-killed L. reuteri in it. Whether L. reuteri plays anything like a an accuracy greater than 90%. Then they Among the offspring of obese mothers, similar role in human beings is unknown. set it loose on the more-than-650,000 pa- those given the live bacteria developed But this research suggests it would be well pers (containing more than 10m figures) normally while the control mice devel- worth looking into. Lack of interest in so- stored on PubMed Central, an online ar- oped social problems. This suggested L. cial interaction, ofthe sort displayed by the chive ofbiomedical-research articles. reuteri does indeed promote the release of mice Dr Costa-Mattioli and Dr Buffington To measure each paper’sinfluence, they oxytocin in the developing brain, which have been studying, is certainly symptom- calculated its article-level Eigenfactor then helps mice to develop normal social atic of human autism. If examining the gut score—a modified version of the PageRank behaviour. To reinforce their case, the in- floras of autistic children and their moth- algorithm Google uses to provide the most vestigators dissected the brains of the ani- ers (whether or not those mothers are relevant results for internet searches. mals involved in the last experiment and obese) even hinted at something homolo- Eigenfactor scoring gives a better measure counted up the number of oxytocin-pro- gous happening in human beings, then than simply noting the number of times a ducingcells therein. As they suspected, off- dosing infants who might be at risk with L. paper is cited elsewhere, because it spring of obese mothers that were in the reuteri could be a sensible idea. 7 weights citations by their influence. A cita-1 82 Science and technology The Economist June 18th 2016

2 tion in a paper that is itself highly cited is Cleaning the environment worth more than one in a paper that is not. As the team describe in a paper posted It’s the pits on arXiv, they found that figures did indeed matter—but not all in the same way. An average paper in PubMed Central has about one diagram for every three pages and gets1.67 citations. Papers with more diagrams per page and, to a lesser extent, Syrian researchers use date stones to suckup toxic materials plots per page tended to be more influential (on average, a paper accrued two more O DISCOVER how to use a waste mate- says, “virtually all the dioxins are sucked citations for every extra diagram per page, Trial to clean up hazardous chemicals is out ofa solution. It is very fast.” and one more for every extra plot per a notable achievement. To do so while In particular, the droplets absorbed page). By contrast, including photographs working in a war zone is doubly impres- 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, an ex- and equations seemed to decrease the sive. But that, with a little help from some tremely toxic herbicide that was one of the chances of a paper being cited by others. foreign friends, is just what Abdulsamie constituents of Agent Orange, used to de- That agrees with a study from 2012, whose Hanano ofSyria’sAtomicEnergyCommis- stroy vegetation by American forces dur- authors counted (by hand) the number of sion, in Damascus, has done. Over the past ingthe Vietnam war. And, once the dioxins mathematical expressions in over 600 bi- four years Dr Hanano, who works in the are inside the droplets, their affinity for the ology papers and found that each addi- commission’s molecular-biology depart- oil is such that they never leave. Disposing tional equation per page reduced the num- ment, and his colleagues have developed a of them is just a matter of scooping up the ber ofcitations a paper received by 22%. way to use the stones (or pits) of dates, a droplets (which will eventually rise to the This does not mean that researchers waste product of the fruit-packing indus- top of any water containing them) and de- should rush to include more diagrams in try,to clean up dioxins, a particularly nasty stroying them safely in, say,a furnace. their next paper. Dr Howe has not shown and persistent type of organic pollutant Dr Hanano’s first idea fora practical use whatisbehind the effect, which maymere- that can lead to reproductive and develop- for his creation is to clean up fish farms. ly be one of correlation, rather than causa- mental problems, damage the immune Though dioxin pollution in most parts of tion. It could, for example, be that papers system, and even cause cancer. Dioxins are the sea isfairlylowlevel, ittends to be high- with lots of diagrams tend to be those that produced mainly as a by-product of indus- er near the coast, where fish farms are lo- illustrate new concepts, and thus start a trial processes. cated, because of run-off from the land. whole new field of inquiry. Such papers Dr Hanano lit on date stones for this Moreover dioxins, like certain other ma- will certainly be cited a lot. On the other task for three reasons. One was that they rine pollutants such as mercury and cad- hand, the presence of equations really are rich in oils ofa sort that have an affinity mium, are never destroyed or excreted, so might reduce citations. Biologists (as are for dioxins. The second was that, though accumulate progressively in the flesh of most of those who write and read the pa- they are not unique in this oil-richness, un- fish and shellfish. Cartridges containing pers in PubMed Central) are notoriously like other oil-rich seeds (olives, rape, sesa- dioxin-absorbing droplets, through which maths-averse. If that is the case, looking in me and so on) they have no commercial the impounded water of a fish farm was a physics archive would probably produce value. The third was that, despite lacking cycled, would help to stop that happening. a different result. commercial value, they are abundant. Remediating polluted land might also, It was not the oil per se that Dr Hanano the researchers hope, be on the cards, al- Figuring it out wanted, though. Rather, he intended to ex- though they have yet to work out how to Dr Howe and his colleagues do, however, tract in one piece the droplets into which recover the droplets once the emulsion has believe that the study of diagrams can re- this oil is packaged within a stone. Besides been sprayed on the affected ground. If sult in new insights. A figure showing new oil, these droplets contain special proteins they can do so, however, the group are like- metabolic pathways in a cell, for example, that help to hold them together. And each ly to have plenty of customers. Substances may summarise hundreds ofexperiments. droplet is surrounded by a membrane like 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin are Since illustrations can convey important composed of a substance called a phos- so long-lived that even today the Vietnam- scientific concepts in this way, they think pholipid which, unlike oil, is attractive to ese are still trying to clean up the mess that browsing through related figures from water. This means that when the droplets Agent Orange created. 7 different papers may help researchers areshakenupwithwater,theyformasta- come up with new theories. As Dr Howe ble emulsion. puts it, “the unit of scientific currency is To gather the droplets, Dr Hanano and closer to the figure than to the paper.” his colleagues first softened up their date With this thought in mind, the team stones by soaking them in water for two have created a website (viziometrics.org) weeks. That done, they ground them up where the millions of images sorted by and centrifuged the result. This process their program can be searched using key separated the droplets from the rest of the words. Their next plan is to extract the in- gunk as a creamy emulsion. It was then a formation from particulartypesofscientif- question of testing the emulsion’s ability ic figure, to create comprehensive “super” to extract dioxins from water. As the group figures: a giant network of all the known report in Frontiers in Plant Science,itdid chemical processes in a cell forexample, or this well. The droplets’ phospholipid the best-available tree of life. At just one membranes proved no barrier to the pas- such super-figure per paper, though, the ci- sage of dioxins, which accumulated satis- tation records of articles containing such factorily in the oil. One ofDr Hanano’s col- all-embracing diagrams may very well un- laborators, Denis Murphy of the dermine the correlation that prompted University of South Wales, in Britain, de- theircreation in the first place. Call it the ul- scribes the droplets as actinglike little mag- timate marriage ofchart and science. 7 nets for dioxins. “Within a minute,” he Tinker, tailor, soldier, cleaner Books and arts The Economist June 18th 2016 83

Also in this section 84 The Arab unravelling 84 The boundaries of science 87 Cambodia, a discovery 87 Annie Proulx’s forest ﬁction 88 Johnson: Double-plus eﬀective

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The Venetian ghetto The intermingling of different Jewish traditions produced five synagogues, each Hidden secrets with its own rites, and the development of a rich, hybrid cultural life made even more varied by contact with the surrounding Christians. The first complete edition of the Babylonian Talmud was published in Venice, by a Christian (Jews being forbid- The Venice ghetto gave the world an odious word, but its synagogues should den to work as printers). And among the be restored ghetto’s residents was Sara Copia Sullam N 1516, when the Venetian authorities done partly for their own safety (murder- (c.1592–1641), a poet and essayist whose lit- Iordered the city’sJewsinto an area near a ous clashes between merchant communi- erary salon was open equally to Jewish foundry, they gave them just 48 hours to ties were not uncommon) and was “the and Christian intellectuals. The exhibits at move. They also forced them to pay their same as the discrimination exercised at the the Doge’s Palace include an ornate Vene- new landlords 30% more rent than the out- time in all the great commercial cities: Lon- tian Jewish marriage contract which has going Christian tenants. A Venetian word don, Seville and Antwerp”. an imagined representation of Jerusalem. meaning “foundry” may have given rise to But, as some Venetian Jews have ar- But this Jerusalem has a canal in it with a the term “ghetto”, which overthe years has gued, most of their forebears were not out- bridge under which a little boat is about to taken on wholly negative connotations. siders (some arrived in the 14th century). disappear. The 500th anniversary ofthat fateful event Norwere theycitizensofan empire, the Ot- Beit Venezia, an NGO set up to breathe scarcely invites celebration. Yet it has in- toman, intermittently at war with Venice. new life into the ghetto’s multicultural her- spired in Venice itself several intriguing, Moreover, with the passage of time, the itage, has seized on the quincentenary to and controversial, initiatives of which the confinement of Venice’s Jews continued, sponsor an international symposium on highlight is an exhibition opening at the though the original motive was gone. the ghetto as a global metaphor and, more Doge’s Palace on June 19th. The exhibition does not gloss over the provocatively, to put on the first staging in Some visitors will find the show sur- hostility they attracted. Two unobjection- the ghetto of “The Merchant of Venice”. prising, even shocking. The curator, Dona- able depictions of Jews by Carpaccio The playopenson July26th. On the second tella Calabi, argues that viewing the Vene- alongside Bellini’s“DrunkennessofNoah” day of its run, a mock court hearing is to be tian ghetto through the prism of the highlight the latter’s anti-Semitism: the pa- held, with real lawyers and a jury led by Nazi-imposed ghettos of the Shoah is mis- triarch’s sons have caricature Jewish noses Ruth Bader Ginsburg of the American Su- leading. Her exhibition shows how the and the bulbous tip ofHam’s is cruelly em- preme Court. ghetto was created at a time of crisis in the phasised by light. Another exhibit tells of From the square where the play will be old Venetian republic, or La Serenissima, the Jews’ Channel in the lagoon, dug so staged, the dome of the Scola Canton, one when its governors became wary, not just they could remove their dead for burial of the synagogues, can be seen tilting of Jews but of all deemed to be outsiders. without crossing the centre of Venice, alarmingly. It is the most visible sign of the In confining them, they were doing what where louts would stone the waterborne deterioration of what David Landau, an they also did to non-native merchants in- hearses. arts philanthropist who settled in Venice cludingGreeks, Turks, Armenians, Persians It is evidence of how much worse con- seven years ago, calls “the most important and, ironically, Germans. The Turks partic- ditions became for Jews elsewhere in the Jewish heritage site in Europe”. ularly, says Ms Calabi, were subject to rules Mediterranean that successive waves of The wall behind the German syna- “stricter perhaps than those imposed on refugees fled to the Venetian ghetto. In the gogue, the oldest and arguably prettiest, is the Jews”. Quarantining foreigners was 17th century its population reached 6,000. crumbling into an adjoining canal. A crack 1 84 Books and arts The Economist June 18th 2016

2 has opened in the floor that Marcella An- pencil on a now notorious map of the Le- runs naturally alongside that of Muham- saldi, the curator of the nearby Jewish Mu- vant. The modern borders of the Middle mad Beltagy, a member of the Egyptian seum, says is growing alarmingly. Wood- East were thus set, with little regard for Muslim Brotherhood, who could not con- worm is eating at the timber skirting local concerns, thereby sowing the seeds vince his colleagues to compromise. After boards. “We may soon have to stop visits,” offuture ethnic and sectarian conflict. a tumultuous time in office, the Brother- she says. At the Italian synagogue, the win- That, at least, is what many pundits said hood was forced from power in 2013 and dows can no longerbe opened because the on the deal’s centenary last month. In fact, later banned by Egypt’s new authoritarian frames are so crooked they could not be the Sykes-Picot agreement did not estab- regime. After a show trial, Mr Beltagy was shut again. lish any borders: the contours of the mod- sentenced to death last year, along with Restoring three of the five synagogues ern Middle East emerged as a result of sev- dozens of other Brotherhood leaders, in- and linking them to the museum would eral conferences and conflicts, many of cluding the first democratically elected cost an estimated €12m ($13.5m). Venetian which took place after the Great War end- president, Muhammad Morsi. Heritage, an American NGO, has raised ed. To be sure, the West deserves much Other stories relate the aspirations of €1m. The city’s Jewish community has blame forthe region’s crumbling geopoliti- Arab revolutionaries, who “had dreamed asked Mr Landau to help find the rest. Per- cal architecture. But indigenous forces are of building new countries that would con- suading anyone, let alone fellow Jews, to most responsible for the Arab spring and fer genuine citizenship and something pay for the preservation of a locality with its bloody aftermath. So the best way to more: karama, dignity, the rallying cry of such hateful associations as a ghetto will make sense ofthe pastsixyearsisto askthe all the uprisings”, writes Mr Worth. But not be easy.But it would be tragic to lose to Arab people what happened. when most of their efforts failed, some decay and neglect such a beautiful and Robert Worth has done just that. In his looked elsewhere for karama. One of the culturally variegated corner ofEurope. 7 new book, “A Rage for Order”, he shares final subjects of the book is Ahmed Dar- many of the stories that he collected while rawi, a formerspokesman forthe Egyptian covering the Arab uprisings and their fall- youth movement, who disappeared in The Arab unravelling out as a reporter for the New York Times. 2013. He resurfaced months later in Syria. “I Today’s conflicts are often viewed through found justice in jihad, and dignity and Tales of spring and wide-angle lenses: for example, that Sun- bravery in leaving my old life for ever,” he nis are seen fighting Shias, secularists fight- wrote on Twitter. A short time after pledg- winter ing Islamists or rebels fighting regimes. Mr ing his allegiance to Islamic State, he blew Worth narrows the field ofview, using per- himselfup in Iraq. 7 sonal narrativesto illuminate the larger dy- namics. This is a common technique, but A Rage for Order: The Middle East in Mr Worth does it better than most. The boundaries of science Turmoil, from Tahrir Square to ISIS. By Much of the fighting now seems inev- Robert Worth. Farrar, Straus and Giroux; 259 itable. But consider the story of Aliaa Ali pages; $26. To be published in Britain by Circle in a circle and Noura Kanafani, two young Syrian Picador in September; £20 women who used to laugh offtheirsectari- T HAS become fashionable to trace the an differences. Ms Kanafani, a Sunni, had Iturmoil of the Arab world back to the even rejected a marriage proposal from a deal hashed out a century ago by Mark man who was intolerant of Alawites, an What We Cannot Know. By Marcus du SykesofBritain and FrançoisGeorges-Picot offshoot of Shiism to which Ms Ali—and Sautoy. 4th Estate; 440 pages; £20. To be of France. As the first world war raged, the Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s dictator—belong. published in America by Viking Penguin in two diplomats proposed to carve up the Only after their country sankinto civil war April 2017 Arab lands of the Ottoman empire. Their in 2011 did they too begin to turn on each countries would each get a sphere of influ- other. It started with little arguments over VERYONE by nature desires to ence, which they outlined in blue and red politics. Each clung to a sense of victim- “Eknow,” wrote Aristotle more than hood, inflamed by the voices around 2,000 years ago. But are there limits to them. As the violence escalated, they re- what human beings can know? This is the treated into their sects and gradually rede- question that Marcus du Sautoy, the British fined each other as enemies. mathematician who succeeeded Richard Others, though, moved in the opposite Dawkins as the Simonyi professor for the direction, towards understanding. The public understanding of science at Oxford Tunisianswere first to topple their dictator. University, explores in “What We Cannot But their democracy got off to a rough start Know”, his fascinating book on the limits under the quasi-Islamist Ennahda party, ofscientific knowledge. which alienated much of the electorate. It As Mr du Sautoy argues, this is a golden was saved, in part, by the budding alliance, age of scientific knowledge. Remarkable then friendship, between Rachid Ghan- achievements stretch across the sciences, nouchi, the septuagenarian leader of En- from the Large Hadron Collider and the se- nahda, and Beji Caid Essebsi, the octoge- quencing of the human genome to the narian leader of the secularist opposition proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem. And the (pictured). Mr Worth tells this story beauti- rate of progress is accelerating: the number fully. Over the course of many meetings of scientific publications has doubled ev- the two leaders “were edging toward each ery nine years since the second world war. other, sideways, like two ancient crabs”. In But even bigger challenges await. Can can- the end, Mr Ghannouchi’s party relin- cer be cured? Ageing beaten? Is there a quished power, and he later supported the “Theory of Everything” that will include presidential run ofMr Essebsi. all ofphysics? Can we know it all? Mr Worth weaves together his stories One limit to people’s knowledge is Let’s make a deal with subtlety. The story ofMrGhannouchi practical. In theory, if you throw a die, 1 haveKINDLEwillTRAVEL

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know about where an electron is, the less American fiction 1 you know about which way it is going. Even scientists find this weird. As Niels Axemen Bohr, a Danish physicist, said: “Ifquantum physics hasn’t profoundly shocked you, you haven’t understood it yet.” Mr du Sautoy probes these limits throughout his book. He talks about the Barkskins. By Annie Proulx. Simon & origins of the universe in the Big Bang, the Schuster; 717 pages; $32. Fourth Estate; discovery of subatomic particles (starting £18.99 with the positron in the 1930s) and the dis- appearance of matter and information NNIE PROULX’S new work is a tribute into black holes. There are also fascinating Ato the world’s boreal forests, an intri- details about the human brain, where his cately detailed narrative of geography, his- discussion ranges from the structure of tory and humanity that is both exhilarat- neurons to the problem ofconsciousness. ing and mesmerising. “Barkskins” spans Eventually, he turns to his own field of 320 yearsand swoopsfrom North America mathematics. If people cannot know to France, the Netherlands, China and New everything about the physical world, then Zealand, interweaving two families and perhaps they can at least rely on mathe- their descendants. But readers must work matical truth? But even here there are lim- for their reward; this is not a novel to peck its. Mathematicianshave shown thatsome at or flick through, but one to read slowly theorems have proofsso long that it would and to savour as a long and fulfilling feast. take the lifetime of the universe to finish The book took Ms Proulx five years to A smashing scientific success them. And no mathematical system is write, but it was born some 30 years ago complete: as Kurt Gödel, an Austrian logi- when the now 80-year-old Pulitzer prize- 2 Newton’s laws of motion make it possible cian, showed in the1930s, there are always winning author saw a Michigan roadsign to predict what number will come up. But true statements that the system is not that proclaimed the surrounding bare the calculations are too long to be practica- strong enough to prove. scrub landscape to have once been the fin- ble. What is more, many natural systems, Where doesthisleave us? In the end, Mr est white pine forest in the world. The re- such as the weather, are “chaotic” or sensi- du Sautoy has an optimistic message. sult, based on years of research, is a brutal tive to small changes: a tiny nudge now There may be things people will never portrayal ofthree centuries ofman’s desire can lead to vastly different behaviour later. know, but they don’t know what they are. to make money from the forest, a resource Since people cannot measure with com- And ultimately,it is the desire to know the mistakenly perceived as having no begin- plete accuracy, they can’t forecast far into unknown that inspires humankind’s ning or end and which “twists around as a the future. The problem was memorably search forknowledge in the first place. 7 snake swallows its own tail”. articulated by Edward Lorenz, an Ameri- can scientist, in 1972 in a famous paper called “Does the Flap ofa Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?” Even if the future cannot be predicted, people can still hope to uncover the laws of physics. As Stephen Hawking wrote in his 1988 bestseller “A Brief History of Time”, “I still believe there are grounds for cautious optimism that we may be near the end of the search for the ultimate laws of nature.” But how can people know when they have got there? They have been wrong before: Lord Kelvin, a great physicist, confidently announced in 1900: “There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now.” Just a few years later, physics was upended by the new theories of rela- tivity and quantum physics. Quantum physics presents particular limits on human knowledge, as it suggests that there is a basic randomness or uncertainty in the universe. For example, elec- trons exist as a “wave function”, smeared Cambodia out across space, and do not have a definite position until you observe them (which It may not look like much now, but in the 12th century, Preah Khan of Kompong Svay “collapses” the wave function). At the (pictured) was part of the world’s largest urban settlement and one of its most powerful same time there seems to be an absolute empires. Found beneath the forest floor near Angkor Wat using lidar (like radar, but with limit on how much people can know.This lasers), these cities of the Khmer Empire show complex water systems built centuries is quantified by Heisenberg’s Uncertainty before the underlying technology was believed to have existed, as well as highways Principle, which says that there is a trade- connecting major settlements. The lack of evidence of a substantial relocated population offbetween knowingthe position and mo- nearby casts doubt on the widely accepted theory that the Khmer Empire collapsed when mentum of a particle. So the more you the Siamese invaded. More maps will be published in the coming months. 88 Books and arts The Economist June 18th 2016

2 “Barkskins” starts in 1693 with the arriv- Sel’s and Duquet’s descendants. They News” (1993), in which she paints in great al oftwo Frenchmen, René Sel and Charles combine scenes of intimate domestic- detail the bleak, claustrophobic winters of Duquet, in New France, the colonial terri- ity—to do with relationships, houses and Newfoundland. In “Barkskins” a river is so tory that France held in North America, to food—with issues that still make headlines full of fish it “seemed made of hard mus- wrest a living as indentured woodcutters, today. MsProulxrangesacrossland owner- cle”; shadows of moonlit trees have a or barkskins, in exchange for land. Sel set- ship, the exploitation of natural resources, “blackness so profound they seemed gash- tles to the thump ofhis axe, marries Mari, a immigration, inheritance, international es into the underworld”; the life and body native Mi’kmaw woman, and fathers three trade, mechanisation, and economic of a woodsman is “shaped to the pleasure children with her. Duquet, disillusioned by booms and busts. Deeply moving is the ofthe axe”. the hardship, runs away, and goes on to story of the decimation of the native Vivid characters people this bold, vi- plant the sapling that will eventually yield Mi’kmaq people, “whose customs had fall- sionary novel as dark humour mixes with Duke & Sons, one of the biggest logging en offlike flakes ofdead skin”. vengeance and violence and the “smoke- companies in the world. Clearly the author still possesses the thickened” decades slide by. Standing The chapters alternate between the descriptive powers that characterised her watch is the forest, its “cold purity” defiant- achievements and disappointments of earlier books, especially “The Shipping ly proud in the face ofdestruction. 7 Johnson Double-plus effective

Why Donald Trump’s rhetoric—with apologies to Orwell—works so well T IS easy to make fun ofthe way Donald guiles his audience is perhaps the sim- ITrump uses the English language. His plest: he does not give speeches. Instead, tweets tend to follow the same structure: he talks. (Only rarely, when even he real- two brief statements, then a single emo- ises that his mouth can get him into trou- tive word or phrase and an exclamation ble—as in his first speech after the Or- mark. (On June 12th, after the Orlando lando shootings—does he resort to a shootings: “We must be smart!”) He in- teleprompter.) He does not even seem to vents playground nicknames for his op- have a “stump speech”. Bored reporters ponents (Little Marco, Lyin’ Ted, Crooked followingordinary candidates on the trail Hillary). His vocabulary is earthy: “big- know that, even though they speak with- league”, to describe how he would do out notes, politicians reheat the same things, or “schlonged”, for someone beat- hash in town after town. Mr Trump, as en badly. During the primary campaign, noted above, repeats many tropes. But he his swearing was so criticised that he also genuinely speaks off the cuff, avoid- promised to stop (and actually did). ing the standard sunny string of clichés, How did this man become the presi- which makes him fascinating to journal- dential nominee of the party of Abraham ists. A Trump speech may actually make Lincoln? He must be doing something news. This is what happened when a right: after all, language is virtually all a barely planned digression about a fraud politician has to wield influence with case generated a controversy: Mr Trump (handshakes and hugs aside). Something rambled that the judge ruling against him about the way he talks and writes swept was conflicted because he was “a Mexi- more experienced politicians aside. beautiful wall and Mexico is going to pay can” (actually an American-born son of First, he keeps it simple. Journalists for it” may be preposterous, but it is easy to Mexican parents). sometimes attack politicians for simple understand, and the human brain, in its This unscripted quality is powerful. language, even going so far as to use a mis- weakness, likes easy things. Even a valid argument is weakened if it leading scale used to estimate the difficul- AnotherTrump tactic is repetition. This, sounds canned. Even an invalid one ty of a reading passage in American too, may be incorrectly seen as childish. sounds stronger if it appears spontane- schools. These critics say Trump “uses the Trump does often say exactly the same ous, especially to voters disgusted with simple language of a ten-year-old”. But thing several times in a row in a crude, the professional politicians. This reveals a the “Flesch-Kincaid” reading-level test hammer-blowfashion. Butin more sophis- dangerous double edge to Orwell’s fam- measures only the length of sentences ticated guise, repetition is a venerable rhe- ous rules for clear and honest English. An and words, and says nothing about con- torical tool. Mark Antony sarcastically re- honest speaker would do well to keep tent. At worst, it measures exactly the peats the taunt that Brutus is “an words and sentences short and concrete, wrong thing in political speech: short sen- honourable man” after Brutus murders and to avoid clichés, as Orwell advises. tences containing common words are, all Caesar. Winston Churchill rallied Britain But a demagogue can use these tools, too. things being equal, a good thing. “Never with, “We shall fight on the beaches, we Orwell believed in the talismanic power use a long word when a short one will shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall of clear language to make lies and appall- do,” Orwell wrote in “Politics and the fight in the fields and in the streets…” And ing talk plain. But some voters cannot re- English Language”. Simplicity is not stu- the most beloved rhetorical repetition of cognise a lie, and others want to hear ap- pidity; making language easy to appre- the 20th century is the great refrain, “I have palling things. If there are enough of hend is intrinsic to making it appealing. a dream.” Mr Trump is certainly no Martin these, then a looseness with the facts, a Countless psychological studies have Luther King, but he knows how to leave an smash-mouth approach to opponents shown that what is easy to process is seen audience remembering what he said. and a mesmerisingly demotic style make as more truthful. “I’m going to build a big, Yet the most effective way Trump be- adangerously effective cocktail. Courses 89

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Economic data % change on year ago Budget Interest Industrial Current-account balance balance rates, % Gross domestic product production Consumer prices Unemployment latest 12 % of GDP % of GDP 10-year gov't Currency units, per $ latest qtr* 2016† latest latest 2016† rate, % months, $bn 2016† 2016† bonds, latest Jun 15th year ago United States +2.0 Q1 +0.8 +1.8 -1.4 May +1.1 Apr +1.4 4.7 May -484.1 Q4 -2.5 -2.5 1.60 - - China +6.7 Q1 +4.5 +6.6 +6.0 May +2.0 May +1.9 4.0 Q1§ +293.5 Q1 +2.7 -3.1 2.79§§ 6.59 6.21 Japan +0.1 Q1 +1.9 +0.6 -3.3 Apr -0.3 Apr nil 3.2 Apr +157.2 Apr +3.4 -6.1 -0.18 106 123 Britain +2.0 Q1 +1.4 +1.8 +1.6 Apr +0.3 May +0.7 5.0 Mar†† -146.9 Q4 -4.8 -3.6 1.33 0.70 0.64 Canada +1.1 Q1 +2.4 +1.5 -0.2 Mar +1.7 Apr +1.6 6.9 May -47.6 Q1 -2.7 -1.6 1.08 1.29 1.23 Euro area +1.7 Q1 +2.2 +1.5 +2.0 Apr -0.1 May +0.3 10.2 Apr +357.1 Mar +3.0 -1.9 -0.01 0.89 0.89 Austria +1.6 Q1 -0.7 +1.3 +2.5 Mar +0.5 Apr +1.1 5.8 Apr +9.6 Q4 +2.2 -1.9 0.38 0.89 0.89 Belgium +1.5 Q1 +0.9 +1.3 +1.2 Mar +2.2 May +1.5 8.7 Apr -0.1 Dec +1.2 -2.4 0.45 0.89 0.89 France +1.4 Q1 +2.6 +1.4 +1.9 Apr nil May +0.2 9.9 Apr -21.9 Apr‡ -0.5 -3.5 0.43 0.89 0.89 Germany +1.6 Q1 +2.7 +1.6 +1.2 Apr +0.1 May +0.4 6.1 May +301.0 Apr +8.0 +0.4 -0.01 0.89 0.89 Greece -1.3 Q1 -1.9 +1.2 +2.9 Apr -0.9 May +0.4 24.1 Mar +1.1 Mar +2.1 -3.9 8.18 0.89 0.89 Italy +1.0 Q1 +1.0 +1.0 +1.8 Apr -0.3 May +0.2 11.7 Apr +41.4 Mar +1.9 -2.5 1.43 0.89 0.89 Netherlands +1.4 Q1 +1.9 +1.7 +2.8 Apr nil May +0.5 7.8 Apr +68.8 Q4 +9.7 -1.6 0.26 0.89 0.89 Spain +3.4 Q1 +3.1 +2.8 +8.9 Apr -1.0 May -0.4 20.1 Apr +17.1 Mar +1.2 -3.5 1.54 0.89 0.89 Czech Republic +2.6 Q1 +1.4 +2.7 +4.2 Apr +0.1 May +1.3 5.4 May§ +2.7 Q1 -0.1 -1.5 0.46 24.1 24.2 Denmark +0.1 Q1 +2.2 +1.2 +2.0 Apr +0.1 May +0.7 4.3 Apr +18.5 Apr +6.0 -2.8 0.21 6.62 6.63 Norway +0.7 Q1 +4.0 +1.5 +6.0 Apr +3.4 May +2.5 4.7 Mar‡‡ +29.3 Q1 +11.2 +6.8 1.10 8.31 7.77 Poland +2.5 Q1 -0.4 +3.5 +6.0 Apr -0.9 May +1.2 9.2 May§ -2.3 Apr -1.9 -2.1 3.27 3.93 3.69 Russia -1.2 Q1 na -0.9 +0.6 Apr +7.3 May +7.5 5.9 Apr§ +51.3 Q1 +3.3 -2.5 8.67 65.5 54.5 Sweden +4.2 Q1 +2.0 +3.5 +3.5 Apr +0.6 May +1.0 7.3 Apr§ +28.2 Q1 +5.6 -0.5 0.47 8.33 8.19 Switzerland +0.7 Q1 +0.4 +1.2 +1.0 Q1 -0.4 May -0.6 3.5 May +75.9 Q4 +9.6 +0.3 -0.47 0.96 0.94 Turkey +4.8 Q1 na +3.3 +0.6 Apr +6.6 May +7.7 10.1 Mar§ -28.6 Apr -4.6 -1.8 9.78 2.93 2.74 Australia +3.1 Q1 +4.3 +2.6 +4.8 Q1 +1.3 Q1 +1.6 5.7 May -62.3 Q1 -4.0 -2.0 2.05 1.35 1.29 Hong Kong +0.8 Q1 -1.8 +2.0 -0.3 Q1 +2.7 Apr +2.6 3.4 Apr‡‡ +9.6 Q4 +2.7 -0.4 1.15 7.76 7.75 India +7.9 Q1 +9.6 +7.5 -0.8 Apr +5.8 May +5.1 4.9 2013 -22.6 Q4 -1.1 -3.7 7.52 67.1 64.1 Indonesia +4.9 Q1 na +5.1 +1.6 Apr +3.3 May +4.3 5.5 Q1§ -18.2 Q1 -2.4 -1.9 7.59 13,373 13,335 Malaysia +4.2 Q1 na +5.5 +3.0 Apr +2.0 May +2.8 3.5 Mar§ +7.0 Q1 +2.6 -3.7 3.90 4.10 3.76 Pakistan +5.5 2015** na +4.8 +6.7 Mar +3.2 May +5.1 5.9 2015 -2.4 Q1 -0.9 -4.6 8.03††† 105 102 Philippines +6.9 Q1 +4.5 +6.2 +10.5 Apr +1.6 May +2.6 6.1 Q2§ +8.4 Dec +3.5 -1.9 4.43 46.4 45.2 Singapore +1.8 Q1 +0.2 +2.3 +2.9 Apr -0.5 Apr +1.0 1.9 Q1 +54.8 Q1 +20.6 +0.9 2.05 1.35 1.35 South Korea +2.8 Q1 +2.1 +2.6 -2.8 Apr +0.8 May +1.3 3.7 May§ +103.1 Apr +7.0 +0.4 1.62 1,173 1,117 Taiwan -0.7 Q1 +3.1 +2.1 -4.1 Apr +1.2 May +1.0 4.0 Apr +74.8 Q1 +12.4 -0.9 0.79 32.4 31.0 Thailand +3.2 Q1 +3.8 +3.5 +1.5 Apr +0.5 May +2.4 1.0 Apr§ +39.6 Q1 +3.0 -2.2 2.15 35.3 33.7 Argentina +2.3 Q2 +2.0 -0.7 -2.5 Oct — *** — 5.9 Q3§ -15.9 Q4 -2.6 -2.8 na 13.8 9.04 Brazil -5.4 Q1 -1.1 -3.7 -7.2 Apr +9.3 May +8.3 11.2 Apr§ -34.1 Apr -1.4 -5.7 12.86 3.48 3.10 Chile +2.0 Q1 +5.3 +3.1 -3.4 Apr +4.2 May +3.6 6.4 Apr§‡‡ -4.7 Q1 -1.4 -1.8 4.54 685 635 Colombia +2.5 Q1 +0.6 +3.3 +1.3 Mar +8.2 May +4.4 9.0 Apr§ -18.9 Q4 -5.2 -1.9 7.94 2,986 2,529 Mexico +2.6 Q1 +3.3 +2.3 +1.9 Apr +2.6 May +3.0 3.9 Apr -30.5 Q1 -2.9 -3.0 6.11 18.9 15.4 Venezuela -8.8 Q4~ -8.4 -7.7 na na +220 7.3 Apr§ -17.8 Q3~ -1.7 -15.5 10.55 9.99 6.30 Egypt +4.0 Q4 na +3.8 -11.9 Apr +12.3 May +9.8 12.7 Q1§ -16.8 Q4 -2.7 -9.8 na 8.88 7.62 Israel +1.7 Q1 +0.8 +3.5 -0.5 Mar -0.8 May +1.2 4.9 Apr +13.8 Q4 +4.2 -2.5 1.69 3.87 3.83 Saudi Arabia +3.5 2015 na +2.8 na +4.2 Apr +3.8 5.6 2015 -53.5 Q4 -1.8 -9.3 na 3.75 3.75 South Africa -0.2 Q1 -1.2 +0.7 +1.8 Apr +6.2 Apr +6.4 26.7 Q1§ -13.4 Q1 -4.2 -3.3 9.13 15.2 12.4 Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist poll or Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. ~2014 **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving average. §§5-year yield. ***Official number not yet proved to be reliable; The State Street PriceStats Inflation Index, March 34.88%; year ago 27.1% †††Dollar-denominated bonds. The Economist June 18th 2016 Economic and ﬁnancial indicators 93

Markets % change on World GDP Contribution to growth, percentage points Dec 31st 2015 The world economy grew by 2.7% in the European Union (excl. Britain) Britain Index one in local in $ first quarter of 2016 compared with a year other rich countries BRICs Jun 15th week currency terms earlier, according to our estimates. The other emerging countries United States (DJIA) 17,640.2 -2.0 +1.2 +1.2 growth rate rose for the first time since 5 China (SSEA) 3,022.0 -1.4 -18.4 -19.6 the third quarter of 2014, largely owing to Japan (Nikkei 225) 15,919.6 -5.4 -16.4 -4.9 BRIC 4 Britain (FTSE 100) 5,966.8 -5.3 -4.4 -8.0 a livelier performance by the econo- Total Canada (S&P TSX) 13,923.5 -2.7 +7.0 +15.2 mies (Brazil, Russia, India and China), % increase on a year earlier 3 Euro area (FTSE Euro 100) 960.3 -6.2 -12.3 -9.3 whose contribution to world GDP rose Euro area (EURO STOXX 50) 2,830.3 -6.3 -13.4 -10.4 from 1.4 to 1.6 percentage points. But the 2 Austria (ATX) 2,124.3 -5.4 -11.4 -8.3 gloom could return if Britain votes to Belgium (Bel 20) 3,321.7 -6.3 -10.2 -7.2 leave the European Union on June 23rd. 1 France (CAC 40) 4,171.6 -6.2 -10.0 -7.0 In the past five years Britain has contrib- + Germany (DAX)* 9,606.7 -6.0 -10.6 -7.5 uted the most to EU GDP growth. Accord- 575.5 -11.8 -8.8 -5.7 0 Greece (Athex Comp) ing to the OECD, a think-tank, GDP growth Italy (FTSE/MIB) 16,514.0 -7.8 -22.9 -20.3 EU – Netherlands (AEX) 419.6 -6.8 -5.0 -1.8 in the would be one percentage point 1 Spain (Madrid SE) 830.5 -6.7 -14.0 -11.0 lower in 2018 than it would be if Britain 2011 12 13 14 15 16 Czech Republic (PX) 817.6 -6.5 -14.5 -11.8 chooses to remain. By common consent, *Estimates based on 55 economies representing 84% of world Denmark (OMXCB) 829.1 -6.8 -8.6 -5.1 Britain’s economy would suffer, too. GDP. Weighted GDP at purchasing-power parity. Sources: Haver Analytics; IMF; The Economist Hungary (BUX) 26,318.1 -3.9 +10.0 +14.4 Norway (OSEAX) 647.2 -5.0 -0.3 +6.2 Poland (WIG) 44,916.5 -3.5 -3.3 -3.0 Other markets The Economist commodity-price index Russia (RTS, $ terms) 910.1 -5.7 +7.8 +20.2 2005=100 % change on % change on Sweden (OMXS30) 1,304.1 -4.2 -9.9 -8.8 Dec 31st 2015 one one Switzerland (SMI) 7,679.5 -5.7 -12.9 -9.4 Index one in local in $ Jun 7th Jun 14th* month year Turkey (BIST) 76,237.3 -3.3 +6.3 +6.0 Jun 15th week currency terms Dollar Index Australia (All Ord.) 5,230.4 -3.9 -2.1 -1.1 United States (S&P 500) 2,071.5 -2.2 +1.3 +1.3 All Items 140.9 141.8 +3.1 +1.3 Hong Kong (Hang Seng) 20,467.5 -3.9 -6.6 -6.7 United States (NAScomp) 4,834.9 -2.8 -3.4 -3.4 Food 171.2 172.7 +5.0 +10.2 India (BSE) 26,726.3 -1.1 +2.3 +0.9 China (SSEB, $ terms) 344.9 -1.9 -17.9 -19.1 Indonesia (JSX) 4,814.8 -2.1 +4.8 +8.1 Japan (Topix) 1,277.1 -5.5 -17.5 -6.2 Industrials Malaysia (KLSE) 1,628.0 -1.8 -3.8 +0.8 Europe (FTSEurofirst 300) 1,271.5 -6.0 -11.6 -8.5 All 109.4 109.6 +0.2 -10.6 Pakistan (KSE) 38,559.9 +3.0 +17.5 +17.7 World, dev'd (MSCI) 1,630.4 -4.1 -1.9 -1.9 Nfa† 119.4 118.1 -1.7 -6.2 Singapore (STI) 2,774.3 -3.1 -3.8 +0.8 Emerging markets (MSCI) 803.1 -4.7 +1.1 +1.1 Metals 105.2 106.0 +1.2 -12.6 South Korea (KOSPI) 1,968.8 -2.9 +0.4 +0.3 World, all (MSCI) 392.8 -4.1 -1.6 -1.6 Sterling Index Taiwan (TWI) 8,606.4 -1.3 +3.2 +4.5 World bonds (Citigroup) 950.1 -0.2 +9.2 +9.2 All items 176.0 184.2 +6.6 +13.0 Thailand (SET) 1,434.9 -0.7 +11.4 +13.7 EMBI+ (JPMorgan) 763.6 -1.3 +8.4 +8.4 Argentina (MERV) 13,116.2 -3.7 +12.3 +5.7 Hedge funds (HFRX) 1,162.5§ -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 Euro Index Brazil (BVSP) 48,914.7 -5.3 +12.8 +28.4 Volatility, US (VIX) 19.4 +14.1 +18.2 (levels) All items 154.3 157.3 +4.3 +1.5 Chile (IGPA) 19,583.9 -1.1 +7.9 +11.6 CDSs, Eur (iTRAXX)† 86.5 +18.2 +12.2 +16.0 Gold Colombia (IGBC) 9,722.8 -2.4 +13.8 +20.9 CDSs, N Am (CDX)† 84.1 +14.1 -4.8 -4.8 $ per oz 1,241.4 1,285.9 +0.5 +9.1 Mexico (IPC) 45,011.2 -2.7 +4.7 -4.1 Carbon trading (EU ETS) € 5.9 -3.3 -28.7 -26.3 West Texas Intermediate Venezuela (IBC) 14,492.8 -6.3 -0.7 na Sources: Markit; Thomson Reuters. *Total return index. $ per barrel 50.5 48.6 nil -19.2 Egypt (Case 30) 7,414.8 -4.7 +5.8 -6.7 †Credit-default-swap spreads, basis points. §June 13th. Israel (TA-100) 1,235.0 -1.3 -6.1 -5.6 Sources: Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Darmenn & Curl; FT; ICCO; Indicators for more countries and additional ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool Services; Thompson Lloyd & Saudi Arabia (Tadawul) 6,566.7 -0.6 -5.0 -4.9 Ewart; Thomson Reuters; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional South Africa (JSE AS) 52,026.7 -3.6 +2.6 +4.3 series, go to: Economist.com/indicators †Non-food agriculturals. 94 Obituary Manohar Aich The Economist June 18th 2016

on to try again, “annealing myself in the flame of my strong will”, and working as a guard for British Rail to get by. (To his de- light, when he secured the title, BR paid for his ticket home.) And so it went. When he was Mr Universe and touring everywhere, it was still a struggle to put his four children through school. There was no money in bodybuilding, he would sigh. What he found instead was respect. The body—though illusory, changeable and subject to decay, as the “Bhagavad Gita” taught him—was nonetheless the holy shrine in which the spirit lived. As such, he worshipped it. By improving his body with every stretch and squat, tearing muscle to increase it, he built a perfect temple around his true Self. Moreover, by controlling the body he controlled the equally un- ruly mind, keeping it pure from “ignoble strife”. By repeating “Strong, and strong, and strong” he was ill no more than twice in his life, and never lost his cool. Except once. That happened when he had joined the Indian Air Force, an arm of Britain’s Royal Air Force, in 1941, as a physical-training instructor. He was well-liked by the officers, but the Quit India move- Raising the temple ment was already stirring in him; and when one of the Britishers made some comment about Indians needing their colonial rulers, he slapped him. The result was a five-year spell in jail. Yet even prison, once he had accepted it, could be used to advantage: he discovered weights there, ManoharAich, India’s first MrUniverse, died on June 5th, aged 104 and trained with them for 12 hours a day. AD you wandered in 1950 past Seal- amount of rice doubles up power,” he de- The man who emerged from the Alipore Hdah railway station in Kolkata, weav- clared; “a full portion may bring doom.”) Presidency Jail was no starveling, but glis- ing through the newspaper-hawkers, bas- As for equipment, he had almost none, ex- tened and bulged with perfect tone. ket-carriers and mule-drivers, you might tolling instead the jack-knifing press-ups have spotted ManoharAich sittingunder a and deep knee-bends of dand baithak on Chants to the drum tree. He was selling green coconuts from a an earth floor. He shook his head over The stardom that soon arrived was greeted great pile beside him, their tops chopped modern gyms and fitness clubs with their with the same equanimity. Posters of him off to expose the white meat. You might motorised treadmills, even though his posing filled his simple house, together have haggled with him, as with any street sons eventually ran two of them out of his with his gold medals from three Asian merchant. What you could not have ig- house in Kolkata. Young bodybuilders, he championships. When not touring, he nored, if you came close, was the 46-centi- thought, were just lazy. taught, passing on his techniques to future metre bicep that rippled under his shirt, Discipline and exercise were the man- champions. As a national hero, he could and the perfect V-shaped chest that tra of his life. At 12 he had black fever; his have eased up; instead, the discipline con- gleamed as he tossed the waste rind aside. parents, being poor villagers of Bengal, tinued unsparingly, with bodybuilding un- ForMrAich had started his day at the wres- could not afford medicine for him, so he til he was 93 and, as a centenarian, 90 min- tlers’ training ground, doing thousands of began to do exercises instead, feebly copy- utes’ exercise each morning. And first press-ups, sit-ups and leg-raises, and the ing the older boys with their dumb-bells. things first: he began each day at 4am with rupees he was now accumulating were to That was the start of it. At the end of his songs or chants to the shoulder drum. pay for his trip to the Mr Universe contest school career, to make some sort of living, On his 100th birthday he was given an in London—which, in 1952, he won. he joined forces with P.C. Sorcar, the great award, as he had long hoped he might be, In the short-height category, to be sure. magician; so after Sorcar had mysteriously by the state of West Bengal. If anyone He was only 4 feet11inches (1.5 metres) tall, filled the stage with birds, silk scarves and asked—and many did—he would roll up and weighed seven stone (44.5kg); but he chairs, cut a lady in two with a buzz-saw his sleeves and mischievously flex his bi- could break a spring of 275lb tension, and and vanished a Ford car full of passengers, ceps for them. He had loved his bodybuil- rip up a 1,500-page book with his small the bodybuilding boy would come in to der’s life, and in his next one hoped to do bare hands. After winning the Mr Hercules bend metal bars with his neck and recline the same thing again. But this particular title in 1950, he had become “the pocket on the points of swords. That show went body, so exhaustively perfected, he would Hercules”. He was neat for a bodybuilder, all round India, and made him famous. now leave to the R.G. Kar Medical College nothing freakish, because his diet and Still, he could barely afford the London to make what use they could of it before it training were all natural. No carb-loading trip in 1951; an awful lot of coconuts had to was thrown away; as the green coconut or miracle supplements: just rice, pulses, be shifted to finance it. So when he came grew to perfection, gave up its goodness milk, fish and vegetables. (“A small second in the contest that year, he stayed and ended in the gutter, with the rest. 7 Whatever the x discover the y

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