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Zinus (013890.KS) Crucial to Preempt Online Market Zinus (013890.KS) Crucial to preempt online market Company Note │ Mar 17, 2020 As a leading player in the global online mattress industry, Zinus is to benefit ※ Refer to page 2 for from the ongoing diversification of its product and regional portfolios. ESG index/event tables Multiple favorable consumer reviews gathered through its well-established operating history provide Zinus with a competitive edge over latecomers to Not Rated the online segment. We view the firm’s strong mid/long-term earnings growth potential as warranting investor attention. CP (’20/03/16) W68,500 Sector Furniture Kospi/Kosdaq 1,714.86 / 504.51 Market cap (common) US$792.51mn Outstanding shares (common) 14.2mn Dominant market force thanks development of world’s first 52W high (’20/02/04) W111,000 mattress-in-a-box technology low (’19/03/16) W68,500 Average trading value (60D) US$8.63mn Enjoying operating cost advantages in terms of logistics and distribution, online Dividend yield (2020F) 1.82% mattress players boast high-price competitiveness. As a result, the US online Foreign ownership 13.6% mattress market showed 40% y-y sales growth in 2018, a pattern that we expect Major shareholders to repeat worldwide. In line with this trend, Zinus is currently expanding its YJ Lee & 10 others 39.8% market regions to include not only North America, but also Australia, Northeast GIC Private Limited 5.1% Asia, Europe, and Southeast Asia. It is also broadening its product range, Share perf 3M 6M 12M diversifying out from its existing mattress and bedroom furniture to include Absolute (%) -22.3 - - living room, kitchen, and office furniture. Relative (%p) -1.8 - - Favorable consumer reviews gathered through its well-established operating 2018 2019P 2020E 2021F history provide Zinus with a competitive edge over latecomers to the online Sales 622 817 987 1,185 segment. In the online market, multiple positive reviews verify the quality of the Chg 3.2 31.4 20.8 20.1 company’s products, a key factor which directly translates into higher sales. In OP 53 104 140 185 addition, a virtuous cycle is created for well-selling products whereby margins Chg -39.1 95.7 34.6 32.1 are widened via distributors’ direct purchases. In contrast, market latecomers OPM 8.5 12.7 14.1 15.6 must lay out heavy marketing expenditure in order to expose their products. NP 44 72 103 137 EPS 3,503 5,098 7,275 9,643 Also positive, by operating its own production facilities, Zinus has achieved Chg -3.4 45.5 42.7 32.5 vertical integration. With most online players relying on OEM production, many P/E N/A 18.2 9.4 7.1 products tend to be similar. This lack of product differentiation leads to intense P/B N/A 3.5 2.8 2.1 marketing competition, leaving most operators in the red. However, as the EV/EBITDA 1.6 12.3 7.0 5.2 developer of the world’s first mattress-in-a-box technology, Zinus boasts ROE 28.3 21.0 34.0 33.7 differentiated products as it controls its own production, and at the same time, it Debt/equity 192.1 101.8 129.5 97.4 has secured price competitiveness and robust margins by being free of high Net debt 95 96 106 67 marketing costs. Unit: Wbn, %, won, x Note 1: NP excludes minority interests Note 2: EPS, P/E, P/B, ROE based on NP (excl minority interests) Main investment points: 1) valuation merit; and 2) high mid/long- Source: NH I&S Research Center estimates term earnings growth potential In 1Q20, the Covid-19 outbreak has been harming the online mattress business environment, including disrupting production and dampening demand. But, we believe that Zinus will gradually emerge from this situation led by higher production yields at its Indonesian plants and the strong cost-competitiveness of its products. We view Zinus as being excessively undervalued in light of: 1) expectations that the global online mattress market will expand steadily going forward; and 2) its eye-catching valuation merit (the shares are currently trading at a 2020E P/E of 9.4x, vs the global average of 12.5x); 3) the fact that it boast the highest number of positive reviews among cometitors; 4) its in-house production and profit- JY Lee, Analyst generating capabilities; and 5) its superior margins. Accordingly, we view the 822)768-7654, [email protected] firm’s strong mid/long-term earnings growth potential as warranting attention. Jiyoon Jung, RA 822)768-7705, [email protected] Zinus www.nhqv.com Summary Founded in 1979, Zinus mainly conducted a camping gear business until 2005. The company later shifted its focus to mattresses, pillows, and furniture, helped by solid distribution networks established via its long-standing relationships with Amazon, Walmart, and other US retailers. The firm commercialized mattress-in-a-box technology in 2005. As of 2018, Zinus’s sales and OP totaled W621.8bn and W53bn, respectively, with 83% of overall sales coming from the online market. Operating production facilities in China and Indonesia, the company is predicted to further widen its product lineups to include living room, kitchen, and office furniture. Zinus also aims to aggressively expand in Korea, China, Australia, and Europe. Share price drivers/earnings momentum Downside risks Rising online furniture market penetration Tepid global economy Stabilization of raw material prices (TDI, MDI, polyol, etc) Intensifying mattress market competition Top-line growth via entry into Korea, China, Australia, and EU Delay in production yield normalization at Indonesian plants Cross valuations (Unit: x, %) Historical valuations (Unit: x, %) P/E P/B ROE Company Valuations 2017 2018 2019P 2020E 2021F 2019P 2020E 2019P 2020E 2019P 2020E Casper Sleep - - - 17.4 - -630.4 P/E - - 18.2 9.4 7.1 Tempur Sealy 21.7 9.9 13.0 6.8 66.0 70.9 P/B - - 3.5 2.8 2.1 Purple Innovation - 16.0 - - - 14.1 P/S - - 1.5 1.0 0.8 Sleep Number 18.4 11.5 - - - - ROE 40.1 28.3 21.0 35.4 35.4 ROIC 47.7 18.3 25.2 26.5 31.2 Source: Bloomberg, NH I&S Research Center Source: FnGuide, NH I&S Research Center ESG index (Unit: %, Wbn, yrs, hrs, ‘000TJ, mntCO2e, mn tons) BOD composition Human resources 2016 2017 2018 Lee Yoon-jae CEO, chairman, BOD chairman Inside Portion of female employees 23.5 33.9 27.4 Ahn Chang-ro Vice chairman, advisor Inside Portion of contract workers 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lee Wang-hee CFO, president, vice chairman Inside Average service period per employee 6.0 3.6 3.9 Sim Jae-hyung Vice chairman, head of Zinus Korea Inside Average training hours per employee - - - Park Ho-yong Audit committee chairman Outside Yoo Nam-yeong Inside Transaction Committee chairman Outside Environment 2016 2017 2018 Kim Tae-ho - Outside Energy consumption N/A N/A N/A Greenhouse gas emissions N/A N/A N/A Recycled water consumption N/A N/A N/A Recycled waste N/A N/A N/A Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center ESG events E 2019.05 – US EPA CertiPUR US® approval S 2019.12 – Donated 2,000 mattresses to the underprivileged (Hope Mattress) G 2019.10 – Professional management system introduced to improve management transparency and protect shareholders’ rights Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center 2 Zinus www.nhqv.com Cumulative reviews (reviews) 560,000 511,401 Others Sam's.com Walmart.com Wayfair.com Amazon.com 480,000 416,471 400,000 320,000 248,382 240,000 160,000 130,482 67,801 80,000 43,161 25,750 0 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 1H19 Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center estimates 3 Zinus www.nhqv.com I. Company overview Founded in 1979, Zinus mainly conducted a camping gear business until 2005, before shifting its focus to mattress, pillow, and furniture businesses. The firm has operated mainly in the US, building long-standing relationships with Amazon, Walmart, Costco, and other US retailers. The company succeeded in commercializing mattress-in-a-box technology in 2005 and frame-in-a-box technology in 2006, becoming the first firm in the world to do so. Based on these technologies, Zinus has been able to display rapid sales growth since 2013, when online transactions started to take off. Currently, the company operates not only in the US, but also in Canada, Australia, Japan, and Korea. This year, it plans to enter European (eg, UK, Germany, and Spain) and Southeast Asian (eg, Vietnam and Hong Kong) markets. It also aims to expand its product lineup from mattress and bedroom furniture to living room, kitchen, and office furniture. Zinus now has three production subsidiaries in China and one subsidiary in Indonesia. Ownership structure: Chairman and related parties hold a Company overview combined 51% stake Company name Zinus CEO YJ Lee Date of Mar 8, 1979 establishment Capital W6.2bn Workforce 3,650 workers (headquarters: 50, overseas: 3,600) Others Business area Mattress and furniture manufacture and sales 44% Chairman/rel Developed world’s first mattress-in-a-box ated parties 2005 technology 51% Developed world’s first frame-in-a-box 2006 technology History 2015 Best-selling products at Amazon 2016~ Treasury Product and regional portfolio expansion 2018 stock 2019 Only mattress supplier for Walmart stores 5% Note: As of end-3Q19 Note: As of end-3Q19 Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center Sales breakdown, by region (2019): US takes up a whopping Sales breakdown, by product (2019): Venture into other portion furniture categories is noteworthy Others Others (Canada, (living room, Korea, and kitchen, Japan, etc.) and office 6% furniture, etc.) 3% Bedroom furniture 41% Mattress US 56% 94% Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center 4 Zinus www.nhqv.com Sales and sales growth OP and OP growth (Wbn) Sales (LHS) y-y (RHS) (%) (Wbn) OP (LHS) y-y(RHS) (%) 1,200 90 130 140 127 140 77 1,017 80 120 1,000 120 96 63 104 817 70 100 800 60 100 87 80 81 622 603 50 80 60 600 22 40 31 40 60 7 53 24 20 400 342 30 40 0 20 200 -39 -20 3 10 20 -40 0 0 0 -60 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center Zinus’s global presence is expanding Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center Zinus’s governance structure: Focus only on main business Source: Zinus, NH I&S Research Center 5 Zinus www.nhqv.com II.
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