THE FUTURE IS DIVERSITY: NEW FORECASTS FOR THE UK’S ETHNIC GROUPS Philip Rees1, Pia Wohland2, Stephen Clark1, Nik Lomax1, and Paul Norman1 1School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK 2 Hull York Medical School, University of Hull, Hull, HU6 7RX, UK Contact:
[email protected] Paper for the European Population Conference, 31 August to 3 September, 2016, Mainz, Germany Abstract Developed countries with below replacement fertility face population ageing. This is slowed by a net inflow of international migrants. The influx leads to a population of increasing ethnic diversity. Most researchers focus on a historical understanding of the ethnic transition process. We use this understanding to forecast the population of the United Kingdom, projecting the ethnic transition forward for 50 years. This chapter describes the context, model, estimates and assumptions for projections of ethnic group populations in England at local authority scale, and in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Demographic component rates for ethnic populations are estimated using 2001 and 2011 Census data and vital statistics. A bi-regional cohort-component model is used with assumptions are aligned to recent official projections. We pay special attention to international migration assumptions because of the prospects of a new relationship between the UK and the rest of the European Union, consequent on UK electors voting in the referendum of 23 June 2016 to leave the European Union. Official assumptions and project assumptions about UK international migration are compared for their direct effect on the UK population between 2011 and 2061. There are also indirect effects through the higher natural increase for younger groups, which we illustrate for one set of assumptions.