Will HUTTON Sir Malcolm RIFKIND Con COUGHLIN Peter TATCHELL Does West know best?

bright blue AUTUMN 2011 flickr.com/familymwr Contributors

Matt Cavanagh is the Associate Director for UK Migration Policy at the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR)

Con Coughlin is the Executive Foreign Editor of The Daily Telegraph

Sir Malcolm Rifkind MP Brendan Cox is the Director of Policy and Advocacy at Save the Children

Stephen Crabb MP is MP for Preseli Pembrokeshire and Leader of Project Umubano, the Conservatives’ social action project in Rwanda and Sierra Leone

Richard Dowden is Director of the Royal African Society and author of Africa: Altered States, Ordinary Miracles

Maurice Fraser is a Senior Fellow in European Politics at the London School of Economics (LSE) and an Associate Fellow at Chatham House

Peter Tatchell Will Hutton is a columnist for The Observer , executive vice-chair of The Work Foundation and Principal of Hertford College, Oxford University

Professor Eric Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at Birkbeck College, University of London, the author of Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth and was a Visiting Fellow at the Kennedy School, Harvard in 2008-9.

Sir Malcolm Rifkind MP is MP for Kensington and was Foreign Secretary, 1995-7

Victoria Roberts is Deputy Chairman of the Tory Reform Group Will Hutton Henneke Sharif is an Associate at Counterpoint and a Board Member of Bright Blue

Guy Stagg is the Online Lifestyle Editor for The Daily Telegraph

Peter Tatchell is a human rights campaigner

Garvan Walshe is the Publications Director at the Conservative Environment Network

Max Wind-Cowie heads the Progressive Conservatism Project at Demos and is the Editor of Professor Eric Kaufmann MuscularLiberal.com Contents

Page 6 THE PROGCON ESSAY

Will Hutton explains why China won’t overtake the West

Page 13 THE POLITICS COLUMN

Victoria Roberts is eager for David Cameron’s foreign policy vision

Pages 9 - 35 OPINION

Sir Malcolm Rifkind M P claims the West should picks its fights carefully Max Wind-Cowie champions muscular liberalism Richard Dowden tells a different story about Africa Guy Stagg thinks the Commonwealth is a modern institution fit for Britain’s future role in the world Con Coughlin wants the Coalition Government to learn important lessons from the Libyan intervention Henneke Sharif charts the decline of deference to professional experts

Pages 19-39 THE THINKERS

Matt Cavanagh urges political parties to adopt measured policy approaches to immigration Maurice Fraser paints a new transatlantic picture Professor Eric Kaufmann warns of the consequences of the rapid population growth of religious people

Pages 26-32 THE CAMPAIGNERS

Garvan Walshe calls for the West to abandon statist approaches to combating climate change Peter Tatchell says same-sex marriages are a no-brainer for Western democracies Brendan Cox defends the Coalition Government’s decision to ringfence the aid budget

Page 27 SOCIAL JUSTICE CORNER

Stephen Crabb MP on Project Umubano, the Conservative Party’s overseas social action project EDITORIAL The liberal realm needs defending By Ryan Shorthouse

The riots this summer, a freak income. These problems – and the trumpeting, again and again. There lies occurrence conducted by a disillusioned proposed solutions - are all based on the hope of its sustainment. In fact, here minority, gave many opinion formers prejudice, not evidence. in the UK, that realm could well be ammunition to trash the supposed sorry expanded. You’ll find a few examples of state of modern Britain. Those of us who believe in evidence- how in later pages. Peter Tatchell calls based policy making should expose and for greater equality for same-sex Voices on the political left blame fight dogmatism. Loudly and strongly. couples and Matt Cavanagh pleads for commercialism and inequality. For the For it threatens the values system which politicians to have a more considered political right, family breakdown and the the West has built since the approach to immigration. crumbling of morality are the reasons Enlightenment: rational thinking, why angry young men are so hungry to scientific evidence and progressive ideas As we ponder internal threats to modern cause mayhem. about individual freedom. Western life, just remember that around the world there are millions of people What we are seeing is yet another attack "What we are seeing is yet who crave the liberty and democracy we on economic and social liberalism – the another attack on economic enjoy. Just look at the Arab Spring. consensus of the establishment in most and social liberalism – the developed countries in the West. Lest Never again let cynics say that these we forget, this consensus has - for the consensus of the establishment values – democracy, gender equality, overwhelming majority of citizens - in most developed countries respect for minorities – are just Western, enhanced freedoms and improved living in the West" and are not yearned for in different standards. Society still has problems, societies, especially in the Middle East. yes, but we should not shy away from There is a danger that ideologues, in the They are universal values. They are championing the successes of modern, future, could tighten their grip on public freedoms commonly craved for across liberal democracies. discourse. Professor Eric Kaufmann, in humanity. an insightful essay at the end of this Still, the liberal-bashers cry apocalypse magazine, warns that the population Professor Francis Fukuyama, the and spread ideas based on dangerous growth of religious people – particularly American political scientist, once and dogmatic assumptions. Just look at fundamentalists - is racing ahead of predicted in the 1990s in his book The some of the ideas advocated in recent atheists and agnostics, potentially end of history and the last man , that the months. Order desperately needs to be undermining the hegemony of world was seeing countries gradually restored, they say, so bring back the secularism and liberalism in Western converge to liberal democratic death penalty. Family life is in chaos: democracies. capitalism, and that this system is the reward marriage and therefore penalise final, most mature form of human single mothers. Wealth is corrupting, The liberal realm we currently enjoy is government. The future would be more apparently, so apply higher taxes on often taken for granted. It needs benign since democracies do not go to 4 EDITORIAL war with each other. How wrong and careful and selective when doing it. naive that looked when the aeroplanes The Progressive Conscience crashed into the Twin Towers on that Our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan is produced and published by miserable day on September 11th 2001. has been riddled with error and heavily criticised. The experience in Libya – bright blue But the road to more liberal democracy though some lessons do need to be was never going to be smooth. We must learnt, as Con Couglin argues – should The Progressive Conscience not give up hope. The perpetrators of make the West more confident about its evil, of hatred towards the West and abilities to defend people overseas liberal democracy, are a minority, against repression. Editor: Ryan Shorthouse repressively controlling whole nation- Design: Dinc 76 states. Most people within these The West has other grounds to be countries want the same fundamental positive. The rise of the East – The Bright Blue Executive things as people in the West, surely: to specifically China – could well be get on with their lives, and to have good exaggerated. Will Hutton explores this friends and a loving family. further in this magazine’s leading essay. Director However, the West does face big Ryan Shorthouse “Yes, this is a leading problems: a shaky global economy, an [email protected] component of the unstable EU, extreme poverty, the thinking of liberal threat of terrorism and climate change. Alexandra Jezeph conservatism, a strong Tim Flagg Quick, robust and effective responses Guy Stagg and growing vision which are needed: a range of authors – Philip Clarke Bright Blue wholly Maurice Fraser, Garvan Walshe, Liam Scott-Smith supports and seeks to Brendan Cox – will offer possible courses Jonty Olliff-Cooper promote” of action. Rebecca Loi Rebecca Kerr We must support these people, fight for The West has much to celebrate. It them against tyrannical regimes if should be confident of its future. But needs be. Call this liberal the liberal realm which it champions is interventionism if you like. Or muscular constantly under threat, both at home liberalism, as Max Wind-Cowie labels it. and abroad. That realm needs defending. Yes, this is a leading But, as Sir Malcolm Rifkind MP reminds, component of the thinking of liberal though we should be prepared to conservatism, a strong and growing intervene militarily to support vision which Bright Blue wholly supports http://brightblueonline.com defenceless people, we should be and seeks to promote. 5 THE PROGCON ESSAY The rise of China is overrated China does not have the economic or political structures to become a 21st century superpower. By Will Hutton China is both powerful and weak – a new investment in proven technologies can One-party states where dissent and economic continental powerhouse hardly do anything else but deliver argument is suppressed cannot do whose rise is often compared to the US’s growth given the very low base from innovation well. The deep plumbing – in the late nineteenth century, but which the country began. The question free universities, peer-reviewed simultaneously poverty stricken, is whether it will continue so that on independent scientific research, risk- paranoid and striven with fatal simple extrapolation China in terms of taking entrepreneurs who get a chance contradictions. Nobody better gross GDP will surpass the US sometime to develop their ideas free from political understands this paradox and its threats before 2025 – and the rest of the century fixes, rich early adopters, neutral public better than the Chinese communist will be Chinese and Asian. procurement, open markets – that drives party – keenly aware that it has created innovation in capitalist economies is a monster with a capacity for self- “China will face a double absent in China. Its capacity to generate destruction but hoping against hope that great new technologies and successfully crisis – the breakdown of it can continue to manage it. commercialise them is very low. its current economic model I describe the Chinese system as Leninist and the need to enfranchise To innovate requires autonomous corporatism – corporatist because this is its people, both impossible institutions with a mind of their own an economy organised around networks to solve while sustaining one who can experiment: anathema to of large enterprises owned directly or Leninist corporatism. indirectly by the state and Leninist party rule” because it is directed by the Communist Yet the story of the twenty first century party. Every enterprise larger than eight I don’t think so. China has yet to get will be the onward rise of great general people has a communist party beyond mobilising peasant saving into purpose technologies like the internet, committee to shadow the work of the technologies developed by others. Its automobile and steam engine on which actual board. Every decision has the efforts to develop its own indigenous first Britain and later the US built their imprimatur of the party. innovation base have proved desperately economic supremacy. There were four disappointing and squandered an such transformative technologies The growth that is so much admired is enormous amount of capital. Of course developed between 1750 and 1900; the result of a very simple economic there are areas where it is making eight between 1900 and 2000. Because model; massive peasant saving is inroads – underwater robotics and space the acquisition of scientific knowledge is diverted by state owned banks into – but they soak up enormous resources. cumulative – the more we know the massive investment that makes derisory more we can know – the expectation is returns or even losses, even if it does The recent calamitous crash of the high that there will be as many as 16 in the represent state of the art technology. speed train in Zhejiang with some 39 twenty-first century. China’s efficiency is astonishingly low; deaths is a more honest indicator of corruption is endemic; but the huge China’s prowess. However it is unlikely as matters stand 6 THE PROGCON ESSAY

flickr.com/ Dieter Weinelt that China will develop a single such economic model and the basis of pass this threshold and thus face a technology in the decades ahead as they communist power – will be an important double crisis – the breakdown of its crowd in thick and fast. Its destiny is not but not hegemonic power. current economic model and the need to to overtake the West as a generator of enfranchise its people, both impossible the new, and on which ultimately Indeed, there is growing evidence in to solve while sustaining one party rule. economic and political power rests. development economics that once “The deep plumbing that average per capita incomes broach a The west has fearful problems – dealing critical threshold two things happen. with the vast overhang of private debt drives innovation in capitalist First, there is a demand from an from a twenty year credit boom without economies is absent in China” emergent middle class for political and creating a great depression – but they Rather, it is to become a very large social enfranchisement. Second, and will be solved. Its innovation and middle-income country which as long as that such enfranchisement is vital for investment ecosystem is in much better its currency is not fully convertible – the next phase of innovative growth to order than any in Asia, except Japan’s. impossible, because the scale of capital drive the next phase of development. flight would undermine their current Some time in the next decade China will Don’t write off the west just yet. 7

OPINION The West must be careful when choosing which campaigns to fight The west must be selective, not ideological, about military intervention. By Sir Malcolm Rifkind MP

Political revolutions are usually seen as elevating Shia factions at the expense of internal events. This is unsurprising, as Sunnis. The dynamics of the region the overthrow of a ruler has the most shifted greatly as a result. Iran was direct consequences for those who have emboldened, increasing support to endured their rule. We have seen this terrorist groups within Iraq and beyond throughout the year. The departure of it. By contrast Saudi Arabia, the key the ancien regime in Tunisia, Egypt, and Sunni state in the region, fretted about flickr.com/ familymwr now Libya, heralds a new dawn for the the emergence of a ‘Shia crescent’ people of each country. stretching from Tehran to Damascus The unintended consequences of through Baghdad. The regional revolutions and interventions can often However, there is always an external positioning sparked by the Iraq War be counter-productive, and are always corollary to the overthrow of a continues to this day. It is demonstrated unpredictable. It is for those very government. Though sometimes not as in Iran’s support for the Assad regime, reasons that I opposed both the pronounced as the impact on the and explains Riyadh’s eagerness to interventions in Kosovo and Iraq. denounce the Syrian crackdown despite governed - or misgoverned - the effect participating in similar activity in on international affairs can be just as "Domestic revolutions and Bahrain. consequential. overseas interventions are inherently chaotic and Such geopolitical shifts are not only the "We were mistaken in our result of revolutions. They also tend to haphazard. No one example reading of the Kosovo situation, accompany foreign interventions. A has a true equivalent" and foolish to topple Saddam in classic example of this was witnessed in the way that we did. Yet our the late 1990s, when NATO intervened Why then, did I lend such backing to in the former Yugoslavia to come to the NATO’s mission in Libya, an external intervention in Libya was the aid of the Kosovo region. At no stage did intervention in an internal revolution? right decision" NATO wish to prompt further changes in The answer lay in the likely the region’s borders. However, seeing consequences of the conflict’s outcome Consider the fallout that resulted from that the bombing campaign marked their for the Arab world as a whole. Unlike the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in best opportunity for self rule, those in many revolutions, the uprising in Libya Iraq. At one level, it removed a despot Kosovo embarked upon a quest for was not an isolated event. While it who had brutalised his people for independence. That outcome ultimately was motivated by Colonel Gaddafi’s decades. Yet it also tore asunder the proved to be something NATO countries decades old legacy of ineffective power structure within the country, were forced to concede. authoritarianism, it was triggered by the 9 OPINION broader awakening of democratic Cameron the muscle man elements in the Arab world. The success Join the Prime Minister and get real about liberal intervention, urges Max Wind-Cowie of these movements is in the fundamental interests of the region, and David Cameron made it perfectly clear, haughty, patrician isolationism that was the developed world. However, the in his Munich speech earlier this year, hinted at before power was won. Our result in Libya could have governed their that our Government doesn't regard successful mission to protect Libyan success or failure. anyone as too big, too small, too civilians from Gaddafi would never have precious or too primitive to live by the happened had Cameron not defied Effective repression by the Gaddafi liberal norms of our society. He global nonchalance and, with muscular regime would have jeopardised them by described his attitude and approach as liberal fellow-traveler President providing a roadmap for other despots, 'muscular liberal' - confident, aggressive Sarkozy, forced the issue upon both and undermining the willingness of and tough in defending the tolerance, NATO and the UN. ordinary citizens to demand more from acceptance and choice that is the their government. Such a setback was bedrock of modern Britain. But terror, “The Coalition is spending witnessed in 2009, when Mahmoud as we know to our recent cost, is not a brashly on aid in areas that Ahmadinejad’s post election crackdown domestic problem alone. succeeded in postponing moves toward ferment and fertilise political reform in Iran. By contrast, the Extremists in our mosques do not extremism, from Pakistan to toppling of Gaddafi has given new operate in a British vacuum, somehow Somalia, and - most importantly impetus to democratic movements limiting the scope of their conspiracies - are doing so with all the across the region. The fall of Tripoli has and ambitions at our borders. Nor, if strengthened Syrian activists, who have early evidence is to be believed, did modesty of a footballer's wife” placed further pressure on the Assad Anders Breivik deal solely with fellow regime, and given renewed hope to Norwegian fascists - he had links to The Coalition is spending brashly on aid Iran’s silent majority. organisations across Europe and in the in areas that ferment and fertilise UK in particular. The enemies of our extremism here, from Pakistan to Domestic revolutions and overseas liberal society are not parochial they are Somalia, and - most importantly - are interventions are inherently chaotic and international - we cannot hope to defeat doing so with all the modesty of a haphazard. No one example has a true them with muscular liberalism ‘in one footballer's wife. In international equivalent, as the people of Libya, country’. development, where the aim is both to Tunisia and Egypt will testify. Yet for help and to make friends of potential that very reason we must approach each Thus, despite his early dismissal of the enemies, conspicuous consumption is situation on its own merits. We were active and intervention-heavy foreign very much the name of game. mistaken in our reading of the Kosovo policy of Blair, Cameron is a muscular situation, and foolish to topple Saddam liberal abroad as well as at home. He Neither of these courses of action are in the way that we did. Yet our may not believe that he can “drop necessary politically - Libya was not a intervention in Libya was the right democracy from 40,000 feet” but he has particularly popular war until it was a decision, made for the right reasons. clearly abandoned the somewhat won war, and the public remains highly 10 OPINION suspicious of our generosity overseas - bastard we once thought he was and we Sierra Leone, and - slowly but certainly but they are absolutely in keeping with pay a price totted up in new asylum - both Iraq and Afghanistan, are all the muscular liberal ethos that the cases and freshly required aid. Or China's better places, and better friends to Prime Minister has cultivated since communist cabal, with whom we have Britain, thanks to our role in saving them arriving in office. played nice and whose people's suffering from barbarism. The important lesson of we have ignored, who reward us by our difficulties in Iraq or elsewhere is Britain is ill-served at home when it propping up an atomic madman in North not that liberal intervention doesn't turns a blind eye to bigotry, fascism and Korea and demand changes to our work - it patently can and does - but deep cultural inequality - when it adopts economic policies whilst holding our that there are better and worse ways of a moral neutrality that allows our values debts ever-more menacingly over us. intervening. to be degraded and deformed. So too, in our inter-connected and inter- Had we chosen to ignore the suffering of Cameron and muscular liberalism were dependent world, we suffer when we the Libyan people - if we choose to proven right on Libya. Our success there attempt neutrality and amorality abroad ignore that of the Syrians and of the may well have healed some of the - all that 'realpolitik' we hear so much people of Bahrain - we not only betray wounds left by Iraq. But there remains about from the foreign policy the values we espouse but we create much work to be done if Britain is to establishment. The Prime Minister is new threats for ourselves. As Tripoli was become a truly active and moral player discovering that a moral foreign policy is liberated rebels flew US flags and on the world stage. We must throw off no longer a childish alternative to the cheered NATO whilst cursing the the shackles of colonial guilt and 'realism' and pragmatism urged by callousness of those in Beijing and constant self-doubt. We must be clear, diplomats, it is the only sensible and Moscow who had tried to temper their confident and robust in our defence of strategic course for a country such as revolution. We have a new ally in North liberal democracy as the only future for ours. Africa because we were guided by our nations of every colour and faith. belief in freedom and in liberal Consider the results of 'realism'. It was democracy. Had we chosen 'stability and But most of all we must stop listening to this amoral philosophy that steered Blair realpolitik' as our guides we would be the patronising cynicism of our realist into the desert and into Gadaffi's faced now with yet another country foreign policy establishment. Their embrace - in search of both a strategic predisposed to loathe us. creed of amoral national greed may economic partner and a neutralised once have served some base interest for threat. In the end it returned neither What is more, contrary to the dark Britain but - in a world where threats are and, when the time came for the Libyan premonitions of the cynics and the multinational, where famine is a people to overthrow their tyrant, it manipulated potted histories presented security issue and where people threatened our standing and our moral by isolationist commentators such as across continents communicate daily in authority in the region. Or Mugabe, Peter Hitchens and Simon Jenkins, the real time - it is woefully unhelpful feted by British leaders and diplomats history of liberal intervention is littered and fundamentally unreal. Liberal even as he stole elections and locked-up with success strories. West Germany, intervention is this country's future - opponents: he is no longer the useful Japan, South Korea, Serbia, Kosovo, that's just a pragmatic reality. 11

THE POLITICS COLUMN Pragmatism yes, but more vision please Mr Cameron Cameron’s foreign policy is a refreshing change from the Blair Years, argues Victoria Roberts . But the PM must articulate a bold vision for Britain’s role in the world When it comes to foreign policy, is there Though the Special Relationship is action is a testament to Cameron’s such a thing as the Cameron Doctrine? overrated, we saw with Thatcher and approach. So too was the use of oil To date it seems not, and it is a welcome Reagan how important personal revenues, in a scheme led by Alan change from the dogma of Blair and relationships between leaders can be, Duncan MP, to support the Libyan Labour’s “ ethical” foreign policy, which and Cameron’s relationship with Obama rebels. was as often honoured in the breach as is in that mould. Similarly, he has in the observance. Under Cameron, the looked to build relationships with key The main weakness of the Government’s Government’s foreign policy has been partners in Asia and has not been afraid foreign policy, however, is the lack of characterised by pragmatism. to broach difficult subjects, such as the strategic vision. Though we should shy poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko during away from a prescriptive doctrine, the In terms of policy successes, two key his visit in Russia. Government does need to set out how it areas stand out: the commitment sees Britain and her role in the world. to international development, and As with other areas of policy under the relationship building. Coalition, the failure to articulate this vision makes it easy to overlook our Protecting the aid budget is in our successes, or to ascribe them to the national interest, as well as being Liberal Democrats. important for the Conservative brand. To quote Damian Green MP, “ it is both Trade is one of the central principles morally and politically right to want to that guides our approach to foreign keep our aid budget generous and well- policy, but it cannot be the only factor. targeted.” It is vital to our soft power, This is especially so with the arms trade, along with the BBC World Service and where the Government needs to British Council, and develops future reconcile the promotion of exports with trading partners. our commitment to human rights. Selling arms to authoritarian regimes is “ The failure to articulate As Daniel Finkelstein pointed out earlier not in our long-term national interest, a vision makes it easy to this year, a Prime Minister’s foreign fact brought into sharp focus during the policy is driven by events. Cameron’s Arab Spring. British principles of overlook our successes, or responses to the Arab Spring and the fairness, justice, human rights and to ascribe them to the intervention in Libya are his greatest support for democracy must inform Liberal Democrats” successes. When Blair had all but our foreign policy. In opposition, destroyed international support for Conservatives championed the cause of David Cameron’s ability to build liberal interventions post-Iraq, the democracy in Burma. In Government, we relationships is another great asset. proportionate and pragmatic NATO must do more to help. 13 OPINION Rethinking Africa Richard Dowden reminds us that Africa is not just about poverty and commerce

Following the death of the Victorian DFID Andrew Mitchell MP is shoveling aid may be deeply suspicious of China’s missionary David Livingstone in 1873 two into Congo, Somalia, Rwanda and Sudan motives and objectives, but they do feel powerful narratives emerged from to save and improve African lives. We treated as equal partners. Africa. still only look at Africa through the lenses of commerce and aid. These two “There is wealth, and there The first was Livingstone’s: “Help heal aspects of Africa are not untrue - there is poverty and suffering - but this open sore of the world”- calling on is wealth, and there is poverty and our idea of Africa is limited the world to save a suffering continent. suffering - but our idea of Africa is limited to these two elements and has to these two elements and The second was the message of Verney not changed in 150 years. has not changed in Lovett Cameron, a naval officer, who 150 years” retrieved Livingstone’s body after his Compare our approach to that of the death at Ulala. That task done, Cameron Chinese. From their first encounters The best thing that the British walked off westwards to the Atlantic with Africa in the 16th century the government could do for Africa is to coast, the first outsider to walk across Chinese sought respect, trade and a few change the way it thinks and talks about Africa. The message he brought back African animals for the Emperor’s the continent. Poor starving Africa and was that Africa was empty, had a menagerie. They had no mission to save rich profitable Africa are but two healthy climate and was rich, stuffed Africa, or to change it, or to recreate it aspects – not untrue but exaggerated with everything that industrializing in the image of China and convert its and utterly unrepresentative of 95% of Europe wanted from fertile land to peoples to Confucianism. The Chinese no the most diverse and rapidly changing ivory, copper and coal. His message was doubt felt – like the British - that their continent on the planet. “come to Africa and fill your boots”. civilisation was the only Civilisation and the rest of the world was barbarous. But Think of African nations as any other in “In public the Chinese speak unlike the British they never tried to the rest of the world, each with its own the language of equality turn Africans into imitation Chinese vital history and culture which extends people. It is the same today. far beyond the colonial legacy. Try to and respect for Africa. understand the outlook and attitudes Unsurprisingly Africans Despite being in a different economic that have grown out of that history. like that” and political league, in public the Meet its people as equals looking for Chinese speak the language of equality mutual interests and ideas, not as So what has changed? At the Foreign and respect for Africa. They make no victims needing to be saved or former Office, Henry Bellingham MP asked public judgements on Africa’s politics or subjects that have yet to grow up to be every African ambassador and High ways of doing things. like us. Nelson Mandela is not the only Commissioner at his first meeting what African we have something to learn their trade figures with the UK were. At Unsurprisingly Africans like that. They from. 14 OPINION Celebrating the Commonwealth The Commonwealth is a surprisingly modern institution - and uniquely suited to the challenges of the 21st Century, says Guy Stagg

The Commonwealth is perhaps the most migration channels and privileged the Commonwealth, several other extraordinary international body in the trading relations once afforded to Commonwealth nations were lobbying world. Made up of 54 independent Commonwealth nations have been for Zimbabwe’s membership to be nations, the Commonwealth’s substituted by those of the European reinstated, despite its complete membership comprises around 31% of Union. rejection of the 1991 Harare Principles. the world’s population. The Commonwealth counts amongst its “The Commonwealth counts Furthermore, the Commonwealth has number all the world’s major faiths, and amongst its number all the failed to speak out against human rights some its oldest and largest democracies. abuses by its members, most notably the world’s major faiths, and It has grown to contain leading treatment of homosexuals in Gambia economies from almost every major some its oldest and largest and Malawi. Delay, inconsistency and trading block. democracies” silence all damage the organisation’s credibility. But it is the Commonwealth’s At the same time, the Commonwealth demographic makeup that shows the itself seems a weaker body, without a On becoming Foreign Secretary Rt Hon greatest potential. Not only has it’s shared purpose or political will. The William Hague MP vowed to put the middle class expanded by one billion Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group Commonwealth “back at the heart of people over the past two decades, but took three years to suspend Fiji after the British Foreign Policy”. But to do this, he over half of the Commonwealth’s Fijian military seized power in 2006 and must prove that the Commonwealth still members are 25 or under. And it is this refused to hold democratic elections. has a role to play in international generation who will come to decide and Equally, before Mugabe pulled out of relations. What is more, he must define the organisation’s role in demonstrate that Britain can the 21st Century. benefit from greater engagement. However, recent However, as it stands few from global events make Hague’s task this young, aspirant majority easier. Because they show that have any concept of the the Commonwealth’s strengths Commonwealth at all. In a make it uniquely well-placed to survey of seven member nations, meet the challenges of the 21st including India, only a third of Century. What are these respondents could name strengths? First is the instinctive anything that it did. And the bond among its members. The benefits of membership have shared networks of history and certainly diminished. This can be language, not to mention flickr.com/ kaylacasey seen in Britain, where the looser culture and sports, bind each

15 OPINION nation together. These relationships are by climate change can be raised, where “the Commonwealth, with its history in essence complex, diffuse and hard to smaller countries are often the most and experience of dialogue, quantify. They rely far more on aversely affected. multilateralism and civil initiatives, can influence than on enforcement. But in play a crucially important role.” world that is increasingly interconnected “The shared networks of and, as LSE’s Charlie Beckett has history and language, not If the UK is to maintain a global presence argued, more “mediated”, this influence despite diminished resources, then the to mention culture and is an ever more vital diplomatic tool. Commonwealth will be central to this sports, bind each nation ambition. William Hague is right to Second is the example set by the together” recognise the importance of the Commonwealth’s commitment to Commonwealth, and to emphasise again democracy. The Arab Spring has given In short, the Commonwealth’s strength Britain’s role within it. But how will his new conviction to the belief that the lies in its capacity to spread prosperity rhetoric be matched by action? yearning for democracy is universal. Yet and democracy. This finds a parallel in that same belief was articulated by the the causes and concerns that unite the Education perhaps points the way Commonwealth’s founding fathers. A next generation. Therefore, although forward. One of Hague’s first measures shared commitment to a tolerant and the Commonwealth came into being on becoming Foreign Secretary was to civil society offers a powerful example. through historical relationships, it is a weight the awarding of Chevening But more than that, it provides a surprisingly modern institution. What is scholarships, for international students democratic model that can be used more, this modernity – the tolerant, to study in the UK, towards applicants throughout the world, while setting a equal and informal forum which the from Commonwealth countries. This moral standard that has been upheld Commonwealth provides – should make serves not only to strengthen cultural across religious and racial divisions. it confident when meeting the ties, but to celebrate the challenges of the 21st Century. Commonwealth. Third is the Commonwealth’s own structure. Because it is a ‘club’ each By its very nature this forum allows And this celebration can be an end in member nation is treated equally. The for greater international security. That itself. Because traditional institutions concerns of the smallest countries are was the most important conclusion need not be outdated ones. Indeed, the voiced alongside those of the biggest; of Amartya Sen’s essay Peace process by which traditions evolve the challenges for the poorest and Democratic Society. Drawing on means they often contain greater economies are given a platform next to the findings of the Commonwealth complexity and sophistication than we those of the wealthiest. A club Commission of Respect and can understand. When we celebrate strengthens bilateral relations, while Understanding, Sen called for a global these traditions, and the institutions fostering a sense of shared debate on the causes of violence, and a which protect them, we recognise their responsibility. This makes it an ideal united political response. And, if the lasting value. And recognising the forum in which issues such as world is to agree on an international wisdom of tradition is much of what it international aid or the damage caused policy in response to such threats, then means to be a Conservative. 16 OPINION Learning lessons from Libya Con Coughlin claims the Government have made disastrous cuts to military capabilities, meaning our Armed Forces were insufficiently prepared in Libya If any lesson is to be drawn from Britain’s to our international reputation, and by the newly-established National military involvement in NATO’s Libya should in future be avoided at all costs. Security Council, which in turn had a mission, it is that our Armed Forces still direct bearing on the outcome of the have a vital role to play in the conflicts "There were many in Whitehall Government’s Strategic Defence and of the future. Security Review. As a result, a number of who argued that Iraq and key military capabilities were consigned During last year’s highly controversial re- Afghanistan had done enormous to the scrapheap, including the aircraft evaluation of Britain’s military damage to our international carrier HMS Ark Royal and its fleet of capabilities, there were many in Harrier jets, and the RAF’s Nimrod reputation, and should in future Whitehall who argued forcefully that reconnaissance aircraft. Britain’s recent involvement in the long, be avoided at all costs" drawn-out conflicts in Iraq and And yet, no sooner had the Government Afghanistan had done enormous damage This was certainly the approach adopted instituted these draconian measures than

flickr.com/familymwr OPINION

it found itself involved in yet another which at one point was required to fly messy conflict in Libya, where a mission long-range bombing missions from its that originally began to protect Libyan bases in Britain. The withdrawal of civilians against the murderous designs of Nimrod, meanwhile, severely curtailed government forces quickly morphed into NATO’s ability to monitor the activities a campaign to overthrow the regime of of pro-Gaddafi forces. Libyan dictator Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. The NATO mission was ultimately successful in achieving the overthrow of The limitations of the NATO mission Gaddafi’s regime, but the British quickly became apparent, as only a Government nevertheless needs to learn handful of member states were prepared a number of important lessons. to undertake combat missions against pro-Gaddafi forces. “ The French, who were able to deploy the Charles de Gaulle “The recent wave of Crucially, the disinclination of the United aircraft carrier, were able to anti-government protests that States to continue its involvement in the generate three times more have erupted throughout the campaign beyond its initial assault on combat sorties than the RAF” Gaddafi’s air defence batteries exposed Arab world has made future the limitations of NATO’s Europe-based The main lesson is that, despite its military interventions more, capabilities. As a result, it fell to Britain disinclination to involve itself in overseas not less, likely” and France to conduct the lion’s share of military adventures, the Government combat operations, with the Royal Air cannot ignore the fact that events Force and its French equivalent beyond its control will force its hand. undertaking around 75% of the combat sorties flown against Gaddafi’s forces. Indeed, the recent wave of anti- government protests that have erupted Britain’s contribution, moreover, was throughout the Arab world has made severely handicapped by the fact that future military interventions more, not the Armed Forces no longer had an less, likely. It is therefore incumbent on aircraft carrier strike capability and the the Government to ensure that, rather retirement of the Nimrod surveillance than cutting key military capabilities, it aircraft a few weeks into the air provides the Armed Forces with the campaign. The French, who were able to equipment and manpower they require deploy the Charles de Gaulle aircraft to guarantee future overseas military carrier, were able to generate three interventions are able achieve their times more combat sorties than the RAF, stated goals. 18 THE THINKERS Intelligence on immigration Conservative policies simply reinforce the impression that immigration is to blame for social ills. Matt Cavanagh argues that ill-considered immigration policies will damage Britain’s interests Like Labour before them, the Government’s efforts to reach this the harshest restrictions on the kinds of Conservatives are determined to elusive target will damage Britain’s migrants who are the most valuable reassure voters that immigration will be wider interests. Over the last year, the economically, simply because these are more tightly controlled and more immigration debate has tended to focus the easiest numbers to cut – a big risk at selective: Britain will choose the on the potential effects on business and a time when returning to growth is our migrants we want or need – the on the economy – rightly so, given the national priority. ‘brightest and best’ – and keep out those broader context. we don’t. As well as the short-term risk to the “ Shorter-staying migrants economy, there is the longer-term risk But will a Conservative-led government send more money home in to our influence abroad. In a speech in succeed where Labour was seen to have early September 2011, William Hague remittances, which contribute failed? The stubborn refusal of argued that if we want to protect our immigration numbers to fall, and the far more to the developing national interests, and escape “ strategic increasingly quixotic-looking decision to world than either aid or shrinkage” , we must invest in bilateral focus on ‘net migration’ – inherently foreign investment” relationships with an increasingly wide harder to control, as well as less range of countries, “ putting in place intuitive than simple immigration, or This makes some of the individual now the relationships we will rely on to non-British immigration – have led some policies hard to defend. For example, remain a prosperous, influential and to wonder whether this issue might Tier 1 of the points-based system insists secure nation in twenty years, when become a vulnerability rather than a on a category of migrants who deserve configurations of global power and strength. an opportunity not through being tied to influence will be very different to a particular job or employer but based today” . The hope must be that numbers will on their individual qualifications and start to fall eventually, and even if they talents. This might have needed reform, Viewed in this context, being a country don’t fall far enough, more people will but it remains attractive as well as with relatively high immigration starts to praise the Conservatives for having having a sound economic basis. Maybe look like an advantage. tried, than attack them for missing the not all who were coming here through target. They shouldn’t need reminding, this route were the right ones, but Rather than worrying about immigrants however, of the risks of politicians considered purely on its merits, would coming over here and taking our jobs, breaking promises, particularly on an Conservatives really choose to close it we should consider the benefits of young issue as emotive as this one. down, to achieve a reduction in overall people coming from a huge number of immigration of less than three per cent? countries to study in our universities, or Immigration and Britain’s interests simply to live and work in London or A second and equally fundamental This highlights the wider risk that the other cities for a few years and then question is whether the Coalition net migration target is driving some of return home – with a lifelong affiliation 19 THE THINKERS and, we might hope, affection for this tried the compulsory approach in the would add a million and a half to our country, as well as a network of British past and failed: the policy proves almost population: far from trivial, and contacts. unenforceable. definitely in need of proper planning, but a lower rate of growth than Britain Even without major shifts in policy, Just as importantly, it risks putting off experienced between 1900 and 1970, migration is becoming less permanent those migrants we most want to attract. and much lower than most of the and more temporary, or ‘circular’. This Not all economic migrants intend to countries whose influence in the world increases the benefit to both countries, settle: in fact, fewer than half settle is growing. as returning workers take skills and even when given the opportunity. But capital back home, while maintaining most of them value the option, and it is Of course, natural population growth has strong links with Britain. Shorter-staying often a significant factor in their choice to be added to that, and as opponents of migrants tend to use fewer services and of destination. immigration quickly point out, this is also send more money home in higher among recent migrants. But their remittances, which contribute far more Taking that option away makes sense if fears of accelerating population growth to the developing world than either aid our sole aim is reducing net migration, may be misplaced: throughout history, or foreign investment. but not if we are serious about birth rates of migrants and their attracting the brightest and best, descendants have tended to converge on “Fears of accelerating and cementing Britain’s place in a that of their host country, just as birth networked world. rates of country folk moving to the cities population growth may be have tended to converge on their new misplaced: throughout history, The facts behind the figures neighbours. birth rates of migrants and Since it often seems to be the net their descendants have tended migration target which is driving the And if you look at the countries which most damaging policies, Conservatives – actually achieve the alternative of zero to converge on that of their along with the other mainstream parties or negative net migration, it is hardly a host country” – should take a hard look at the list of countries which are happy and prevailing wisdom that Britain is ‘full confident in their position in the world. Recent Government proposals on up’. settlement aim to exploit temporary Cross-party consensus? migration, but in a crude way, by It is really London and the South East The deeper point is that in the long run, compelling all economic migrants to which is crowded, rather than Britain as all political parties share an interest in return home after five years. While it is a whole, and the crowding is driven by being more honest with voters about the always tempting to talk tough on economics more than immigration – extent to which immigration levels are immigration, this is one of many areas though clearly immigration adds to it. really driven by government policy, where carrots – schemes which Suppose we had a net migration rate rather than global trends, or the state incentivise returning workers – are fluctuating around 100,000 or even and shape of our economy. For example, better than sticks. Other countries have 150,000 per year. Over ten years, that neither Labour nor the Conservatives 20 THE THINKERS

flickr.com/ lcars 21 THE THINKERS know what to say about the immigration immigration can be influenced, but not immigration. That concern is genuine, oflow-skill workers from Eastern Europe. neatly controlled – and avoided the easy and goes beyond the perceived pressure option of blaming immigration for on jobs and wages, beyond concern They are desperate to reassure people problems which run far deeper. about our “crowded island”, to a that there won’t be a zero-sum game feeling, cutting across social classes, with the jobs and wages of those already The message is key that our way of life is under threat. here. Finally, politics is not just about the right policies, but also the right Politicians are responding to this feeling, The Spectator’s Fraser Nelson recently language: sending the right message to not leading it. In some ways this is more characterized David Cameron’s problem the public at home and our friends and comfortable territory for the as the “nightmare that the economy allies abroad. Conservative ministers Conservatives, but in truth it uncovers recovers, but does so by sucking in choose to keep sending the message to fault-lines within both major parties, immigrant labour rather than shortening the domestic audience that immigration between those most worried about a British dole queues.” This is strikingly is not just high but “out of control”, the declining sense of national identity or similar to Labour’s last manifesto, which economy not just reliant on immigration solidarity on the one hand; and on the committed to “ensuring that as growth but “addicted” to it, and so on. Talking other, those who take a wider view: the returns, we will see rising levels of up the problems you have inherited is a notorious ‘metropolitan elite’, and the employment, skills and wages not more perfectly respectable political tactic, business lobby, but also those who immigration”. but is also a limited and limiting one. believe that globalisation is here to stay and that despite our problems, Britain It turns out that the difference between “I would hope those who accept remains well-placed to benefit from it, the parties is small, given that neither because of our geography, history, and the responsibility of balancing seriously contemplates leaving the EU. culture. short-term popularity with They argue about the relatively minor long-term national interest I understand why many Conservatives, issue of transitional controls, when they would try to steer their party especially those who feel frustrated by should be confronting the real problem back to a confident language of coalition politics, want to see their party that too many British firms are stuck in being ever tougher on a popular issue low-skill, low-value business models, global influence rather than like immigration. arguably over-reliant on migrant labour insularity and fear” but also holding back national But I would hope those who accept the productivity and contributing to wage Meanwhile, potential friends abroad are responsibility of balancing short-term stagnation and the “squeeze” on middle hearing the message that Britain is popularity with long-term national incomes. fearful, turning inwards, ‘closed for interest would try to steer their party business’. I am not one of those who back, sooner rather than later, to a The debate would be healthier and more believe politicians are responsible confident language of global influence constructive if all sides admitted that for creating public concern about rather than one of insularity and fear. 22

THE THINKERS A stronger Europe The EU must embrace and deepen the transatlantic relationship to stop the decline of the West, says Maurice Fraser

From progressive eclipse to ultimate (to our overwhelming national supporters of European integration to obscurity – such is the fate of the West, advantage), membership of the shape a European identity against rather confidently announced in a steady European Union has been the other than alongside its US ally. It found stream of monographs, in the client plank - one which, perversely, the expression in the aspiration of a handful briefings of management consultancies, eurosceptics resolutely refuse to allow of EU member states, led by France, to in every half-serious weekly in the successive British governments to build a European defence identity world’s airport lounges, and at seminars, explain to the British people through separate from NATO. conferences and high-level meetings any public information campaign, as from Davos to Mumbai to Singapore. Is this would apparently constitute Then came the mission to make the EU this true? And if so, does it matter? ‘propaganda’. But the UK will remain a a powerful actor on the world stage, There are good reasons why the West is full member of the EU, and it is in the championing multilateralism, the worth saving from the quaint and dusty British national interest to use that international rule of law and the iconography of the Cold War and the spy membership to the West’s advantage. peaceful resolution of disputes – a thriller genre. That is the subject of laudable ambition, but conceived more another essay. The question for now is The challenge facing policymakers as a riposte to perceived US adventurism what, if anything , can Europe do to remains the perennial one: how to and high-handedness than as a valuable mitigate or, better still, arrest a translate the ties that bind Europe and complement to the US-led hard power seemingly inexorable process of decline? North America into shared analyses and which some crises will demand. common strategies? NATO has done so, But let’s remember briefly why the impressively, through Article 5 and its Fortunately, even before the end of concept of the West speaks to something collective security guarantee. But for George W. Bush’s second administration, important in our lives. It is a shared much of the last 20-odd years, the wiser counsels were prevailing, space of values, inherited from the Bible narratives of transatlantic unity and transatlantic bridges were mended, and and the Greeks. It is a foundational Western leadership have taken a series the idea of a free-standing defence concept in the humanities and the social of batterings. To the usual cast-list of capability for the EU outside the Atlantic sciences, and in the conversational suspects - much of the left-wing Alliance was shelved. The arrival of 12 currency of geopolitics. And it denotes a intelligentsia in Europe, isolationists and new, overwhelmingly Atlanticist, EU powerful community of interests – one flat-earthers in the US - we have had to members helped, as did the election of which underpins the world’s only add rather more mainstream voices, US-friendly heads of government, first in credible, tried and tested organisation who have found a wider audience than Germany with Angela Merkel and two for collective security, NATO. For the that of Europe’s far-left voters. Their years later, mirabile dictu, in France, UK, membership of the Atlantic Alliance influence has been baleful. with Nicolas Sarkozy. France’s re- has for over 60 years been one of the integration into NATO’s military two central planks of our foreign and First was the attempt in the 1990s by structure set the seal on the improving security policy. And, for nearly 40 years some of the more enthusiastic trend in transatlantic relations. 24 THE THINKERS

All EU members are now agreed that the West’s self-belief most urgently rivalry and conflict. But these seldom NATO will remain the main security show needs to be re-kindled. For Europeans grab the headlines. And national in town. Meanwhile, President Obama the first challenge is to maintain interests – usually commercial – all too has (not before time) found a language – credible defence capabilities in the face often trump coherent policymaking most ringingly, in Westminster Hall in of massive budgetary pressures. The fact towards China and Russia, for example. May – to reassure his European allies that that the US military is set to undergo the Western alliance will remain the large cuts – including to its presence on The establishment of the European lynchpin of US foreign and security the European continent - should not be External Action Service suggests a policy, to be used in the service of taken as an excuse to renege yet again determination to will the means as well freedom, democracy and human rights on the goal of more effective burden- the end of an effective European foreign across the world. sharing with the Americans. policy. Its expertise should make it easier to develop common analyses, “ All European governments In the Libyan conflict, only eight out of strategies and policies. It is still early 28 NATO allies were able to send combat days, and the cynics would do well to urgently need to invest in their forces. On present trends, it is unlikely suspend judgement for now – or propose militaries if NATO defence that the Europeans will be able to mount something better. guarantees – let alone its another such operation in future. capacity for out-of-area In all the world’s zones of instability - operations – are to remain With Germany writing itself out of the the Middle East, North Africa, the EU’s military script in Libya, to the dismay of eastern neighbourhood of Belarus, credible” London, Paris and Washington, it is Ukraine and the Caucasus, the Horn of clearer than ever that the main burden Africa - there is a clear western interest, So far, so good, but there is a lot more of Western security will be carried in which happens to be the global interest work to do on both sides, if the managed future by the US, the UK and France. too. Common sense dictates that these decline of the West is not to become a This has an inescapable logic, but it is threats can only be confronted and self-fulfilling prophecy. For Europeans, not a sustainable solution: all European managed if Europeans and North economic reforms to rebuild governments urgently need to invest in Americans see themselves as committed competitiveness, a credible system of their militaries if NATO defence partners, not reluctant allies. governance for the euro, boosting guarantees – let alone its capacity for innovation and Research & Development out-of-area operations – are to remain The Libyan conflict has shown, for the (especially in green technologies), and credible. first time, that Europeans are ready to concentration on the high end of the take responsibility for their own value chain will all be crucial to mitigate Meanwhile, the EU needs to raise its neighbourhood, with all the costs and the economic and demographic shift game in foreign policy. Its member risks attached, and to positive effect. from West to East. states do in fact take common positions Let us hope that the lessons are quickly and agree measures on a day-to-day drawn, in Washington and EU capitals But it is as a global security actor that basis – no mean feat after centuries of alike. 25 flickr.com/ J.G. in S.F

A liberal climate The West has always championed individual choice and entreprenurship. This is the way to tackle climate change, says Garvan Walshe

Freedom distinguishes the Western more formidable competitors. But when distributed impartially according to a political tradition. People, choosing it comes to climate change, we seem to sound ethical model, and all this central their own gods, lives, and political have forgotten the source of the vitality coordination would keep cost low. The leaders; men and women discovering of Western civilisation that so inspires deal was to have been sealed at new scientific truth, creating new art, non-Westerners. There’s no question we Copenhagen almost two years ago. starting radical new businesses. Never took the issue seriously. Institutions of mind the received wisdom, orthodox state and international organisations "We need to get to the supply aesthetics, or entrenched position of the commissioned rigorous research by top- side: to harness the profit dominant firm. The Western mind is notch scientists and leading economists. restless, impatient and disruptive. motive so that the products and This told us that if Western nations, services people want – the cars, It’s also infectious. People everywhere, acting rationally, in coordinated fashion, the steaks and yes the flights as we’ve seen so clearly this year in the cound identify the scientifically abroad – use fewer and fewer Middle East, rush to this ideal, determined steps that needed to be embracing it even as politicians, taken, then they could keep the large greenhouse gases every year" intellectuals and captains of industry in costs of climate change mitigation and the West insist that it’s far too adaptation to a minimum. To the intelligentsia, this was exactly inconvenient to spread democratic how it should be, but too many others politics, liberal culture and capitalist Governments rich, poor, and somewhere remain unconvinced. People in the rich society. New democracies are less in between, would agree to the world who resent costs imposed by a pliable allies; globalising culture less framework of policies the experts had political elite because of complex pure; and the companies they produce derived. Their costs would be scientific conclusions they don’t 26 SOCIAL JUSTICE CORNER understand. People in emerging A new chapter in Rwanda economies suspicious of their former Stephen Crabb MP describes the successes of Project Umubano colonial masters’ claims that Western- style industrialisation is not sustainable In 2007, 43 volunteers travelled to Rwandan people, using their advice to any more (Is this, they ask, thinly Rwanda to begin a new social action offer help to where it was most needed. disguised protectionism?) In the UK, the project for the Conservative Party. Coalition has borrowed wholesale the They wanted volunteers to work technocratic, top-down, big government If you had told those people that by alongside Rwandans to develop Brown–Miliband decarbonisation. 2011 they’d have built a school and a partnerships that would last long after health centre, set up two libraries, seen our return to the UK. With that in mind, Its momentum will carry it on for a 5,000 medical patients, trained 3,000 they pioneered schemes to teach skills while, but it doesn’t have public support teachers and 1,300 school examiners, in education, sport, health, justice, for the higher energy bills this plan held football coaching sessions for 2,000 community and the private sector. intends to make consumers pay. Perhaps children, advised 150 businesses, at the height of the boom people might pioneered a government research Now, Umubano volunteers travel the not have noticed. Things will be department, started plans for a cricket country with ever-growing partnerships. different at the next election. We need stadium and begun legal, medical and We work with Rwandan teaching to think about how to adapt green educational programmes in Sierra colleges giving teachers the skills to pass politics to this harsher climate. Leone, they would probably have on English to their classes. We help laughed. But that is just a part of what small companies develop business plans It seems we may have overestimated the Project Umubano’s volunteers have that can be built on in the future. We ability of elites to direct and coordinate achieved. train football coaches in partnership policies that drill into every aspect of with the Football Association (FA), so people’s lives. So far green policy has What began as a small mission has that they may go on to train young been led by the demand side: from taxes become the UK's largest political social children. We have established a Post to deter consumption, to subsidies for action project in Africa. We're now Graduate Degree in Surgery with the solar power. We need to get to the helping two of Africa's poorest Rwandan Ministry of Health. We even supply side, not just energy but the countries, and over 250 people have hope to train a new generation of firms that use it: to harness the profit travelled to work on our projects there. Rwandan dentists. motive so that the products and services Our numbers grow each year, as does people want – the cars, the steaks and the ground we cover. We've also built lasting UK partnerships yes the flights abroad – use fewer and on the ground. Umubano has been a fewer greenhouse gases every year. This When David Cameron MP and Andrew direct catalyst for a major partnership isn’t the conventional environmentalist Mitchell MP set up Umubano, they were between a UK city law firm and way, but the West has become what it is determined that the project would Rwandan justice officials. We have by experimentation, trial and error, and provide more than just donations. They helped to establish an emerging football progress from the bottom up. It’s time wanted to establish something that coaching relationship between the we lived up to that tradition. would make the most of the skills of the English and Rwandan Football 27 SOCIAL JUSTICE CORNER

time this year we have joined up with UK child immunisations for many years to charity Street Child of Sierra Leone, come. working in the classroom and on the streets of the capital to bring vulnerable “In rural Kirambi, London GP children back into the education system. Sharon Bennett saw villagers carrying their sick children Some volunteers have even returned to begin projects of their own. In 2007, more than 5km to see a nurse. Brooks Newmark MP was so struck by his She returned each year, visit to a school on the verge of closure bringing physicians and nurses that he set up an education charity and to teach their skills. In 2011 helped to save it. Sharon had raised enough to The charity did so much more than to fix build a rural health outpost” the roof - they worked to reform the school's education structure, providing And the greatly missed Umubano pioneer the tools for teachers to continue their Christopher Shale also returned every learning framework for years to come. year to build on the success of his community project, working with Girubuntu primary school is now ready charities helping genocide survivors. for its 300 pupils to begin the new school year and was officially opened by In 1994, one million Rwandans were A. Doorey Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who slaughtered in less than three months. Associations. Several schools in the UK thanked Umubano and Brooks for their The project Christopher began supports the charities giving hope to the are also now twinned with schools in dedication. It's the same story in rural Kirambi, where London GP Sharon thousands who were orphaned, widowed Rwanda with teachers engaging in two- Bennett saw villagers carrying their sick or deliberately infected with HIV during way exchanges. In a unique move by the children more than 5km to see a nurse. the massacre. Many Rwandans still need Conservatives, Parliamentary Resources help beyond the power of the state, and Unit (PRU) representatives have She returned each year, bringing Umubano's work with those charities will travelled out to develop a new physicians, dentists, surgeons and continue in Christopher's memory. bipartisan research department in the psychiatric nurses to teach their skills. Rwandan Senate to provide research We're often asked if the government facilities for Senators. In Sierra Leone, In 2011 Sharon had raised enough to pays for our visits. It doesn’t; every we are helping to train lawyers and build a rural health outpost that will volunteer pays for their own trip, as medics across the country. For the first provide better access to services like well as independently appealing for

28 SOCIAL JUSTICE CORNER donations. In fact, this year we helped nothing behind. Though our donations we need, but the whole is so much to transport school equipment, Asda have value, it is the legacy of Umubano greater than the sum of the parts." As cricket sets, footballs, school uniforms that is key. To uphold that legacy, we our numbers increase, we bring together and a metric ton of English dictionaries focus on a long-term solution that greater skills and experiences, to Rwanda. We've also had outstanding works. The projects develop with the overcoming greater challenges and fundraising efforts, particularly one of initiative of the people in both countries building new ideas. Together, in Rwanda our football coaches who appealed to long after we return to the UK, and the and Sierra Leone, we are writing the British football clubs and sports charities progress made between visits is next chapter. and brought out 2,000 donated football testament to that approach. There’s no kits. But Umubano is much more than a specific thing that makes the project For more information about Project fundraising initiative. work, but the variety of skills and Umubano, or if you are interested in abilities in the group has made it a truly joining or supporting Project Umubano As project leader, it’s my responsibility unique venture. As Christopher Shale 2012, please contact Abi Green to make sure that we don't just arrive in said: "We're absolutely interdependent: at [email protected] or Africa, work for two weeks and leave none of us, individually, has all the skills visit www.conservatives.com/umubano

A. Doorey THE CAMPAIGNERS Two wrongs don’t make a right Peter Tatchell says gay marriage is a Conservative value

Marriage is a Conservative value. So why this – he can’t trumpet the western couples to marry. So do Tory MPs Margot did David Cameron, George Osborne and values of liberty and equality abroad James, Mike Weatherley and Chloe Theresa May take so long to support the when denying it here in the UK. Can’t he Smith. But, sadly, I am not aware of any right of lesbian and gay couples to get see the contradiction? other Conservative MPs who support married? marriage equality. Conservatives rightly encourage and The government has announced that it approve loving, stable relationships Under the current law, not only are gay will consult on legalising same-sex because enduring care and commitment couples banned from having a civil marriage. But not until March 2012. Why are good for individuals, families and for marriage in a register office, the long delay? The consultation was the well-being of society as a whole. heterosexuals are banned from having a supposed to start last June. civil partnership. Two wrongs don’t “Prohibiting black people make a right. In a democratic society, Moreover, the terms of reference from getting married would we should all be equal before the law. explicitly exclude legalising opposite-sex This means that both civil marriages and provoke uproar and civil partnerships and same-sex religious civil partnerships should be open to all marriages by faith organisations that accusations of racism” couples, without discrimination. wish to conduct them. Contrary to what the critics say, gay Nearly two-thirds of the British people It is odd that the Prime Minister wants to marriage doesn’t undermine marriage, it back marriage equality. In June 2009, a maintain the discriminatory laws that strengthens it. At a time when large Populus opinion poll found that 61% of prohibit gay couples from having a numbers of heterosexuals are the public agree: “Gay couples should religious marriage and heterosexual cohabitating and not getting married, have an equal right to get married, not couples from having a civil partnership. isn’t it a good thing that many same-sex just to have civil partnerships.” Only 33% Surely everyone should have a free and couples still believe in marriage and disagreed. We can probably safely equal choice? want to be part of it? assume that a similar poll today would reveal even greater support for gay civil While religious bodies should not be The elimination of discrimination in marriages – and for the right of forced to marry same-sex couples, those marriage law is consistent with modern, heterosexuals to have a civil partnership. that want to marry gay partners - such liberal Conservatism, and with the Prime as the Quakers, Unitarians and Liberal Minister’s personal pledge to eradicate To challenge the current legal Judaism - should be permitted by law to homophobia and ensure gay equality. discrimination, eight British couples - do so. four gay and four heterosexual - have The Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, filed a joint legal application to the The Prime Minister’s proclaimed liberal understands this. That’s why he wants European Court of Human Rights. They Conservatism rings hollow by opposing the law changed to allow same-sex are seeking to overturn the twin bans on 30 THE CAMPAIGNERS gay civil marriages and heterosexual civil fountains or beaches for different racial We're equal partners and we want to partnerships. groups. The only function of the twin make an official, lifetime commitment bans is to mark lesbian and gay people to each other. But we don’t want to The eight couples are part of the Equal as socially and legally inferior to participate in a marriage system that has Love campaign which seeks to open up heterosexual people.” patriarchal foundations and rejects both civil marriages and civil same-sex couples. We’d prefer a civil partnerships to all couples, without Since there is no substantive difference partnership”. discrimination based on sexual in the rights and responsibilities involved orientation. in gay civil marriages and heterosexual The Greens and Liberal Democrats civil partnerships, there is no support reform, as does Labour leader Ed Prohibiting black people from getting justification for having two mutually Miliband. The SNP and Plaid Cymru are married would provoke uproar and exclusive and discriminatory systems. expected to soon embrace equality. With accusations of racism. The prohibition on this emerging cross-party consensus, and gay civil marriages should provoke "David Cameron should do the the backing of nearly two-thirds of the similar outrage, as should the equally right thing by opening up civil public, legislating equality would prompt reprehensible exclusion of heterosexual little resistance and generate much couples from civil partnerships. marriages and civil partnerships to everyone" goodwill for the Conservatives. The bans on same-sex civil marriages and David Cameron should do the right thing opposite-sex civil partnerships create a One of the same-sex plaintiffs, Matthew by opening up civil marriages and civil system of legal segregation, with one Toresen, explained: “Scott and I have partnerships to everyone, without law for gay couples and another law for been together for over 18 years. Our love discrimination. heterosexual partners. Segregation is for each other is as valid as anybody incompatible with caring, compassionate else’s. It seems nonsensical to me that Conservatism. my two brothers are married to the It’s a win-win no brainer for the women they love but that Scott and I are Conservative Party. It would cost almost The legal advisor to the eight couples denied this social legitimacy and nothing, promote marriage, win the and author of their legal application is celebration”. His partner Scott Maloney respect of gay and liberal heterosexual Professor Robert Wintemute of the added: “As a gay man, I am expected to voters, and burnish the government’s School of Law at Kings College London. pay taxes, obey the laws and, if progressive credentials at a time when it Outlining the legal basis of the Equal necessary, defend this country like faces widespread criticism over public Love challenge, he said: “Banning same- everybody else. In return, I expect the spending cuts. Over to you, David. sex marriage and different-sex civil state to treat me equally”. partnerships violates Articles 8, 12 and For more information about the 14 of the European Convention on One of the opposite-sex plaintiffs, Equal Love campaign and to sign the Human Rights. It's discriminatory and Stephanie Munro said: “The institution of petition, please visit the following: obnoxious, like having separate drinking marriage has never appealed to me. www.equallove.org.uk 31 THE CAMPAIGNERS It’s right to ring?fence the aid budget Brendan Cox insists that the contribution of British taxpayers to international aid transforms lives

Protecting aid in a domestic economic money. With less than 1% of government diplomacy’ often plays an important role downturn is a political challenge. As an spending, the UK will secure schooling in putting poverty higher on the agenda organisation working to tackle child for a further 11 million children and save of developing countries’ governments poverty in the UK, Save the Children can the lives of 50,000 women in pregnancy than would otherwise be the case. see the effects of spending cuts first and childbirth. hand. But our experience in developing In addition official aid is on a scale, and countries also tells us that the Meanwhile reneging on the UK's aid delivered at a level where it can Government’s decision to stick to its commitments would cost thousands of effectively support the developing promise to give 0.7% of gross national children's lives and threaten the countries’ government to take on income as overseas aid is absolutely the opportunities of millions more. It would responsibility for delivering essential right thing to do. jeopardise the last decade’s dramatic services, providing security and but fragile gains. managing the economy and public “Official aid does things finances effectively. that private aid usually According to Liberian President Ellen cannot do” Johnson-Sirleaf, any reduction in aid Private aid, from foundations and “would slow private-sector growth, stall charities, can and should complement British aid has enabled dramatic poverty reduction, and undermine peace official aid by achieving major impact at progress in poor countries and is and stability in countries that are the community level, and generating lifesaving. On Sierra Leone, UKAid has struggling to become part of the global demand for good governance and public enabled the government to provide free economy.” accountability. Save the Children is health care for pregnant and working across a number of countries, breastfeeding mothers and children In recent months some have highlighted within communities, to support an under five. As a result of this change, the charitable generosity of the British increase in trained health workers. 230,000 women and 950,000 children public, arguing that the UK government will receive vital, often life-saving doesn’t need to give aid too. But Save One billion people will never see a assistance. the Children have learnt the importance health worker in their lives. But to of working in partnership with the UK change this situation, in the long term, The UK's financial contribution to the Government, because we know that donor governments need to support Global Alliance on Vaccines and official aid does things that private aid poor countries to fund recurrent Immunizations (GAVI) will vaccinate one usually cannot do. expenditures like health worker training. child every two seconds for the next five years, immunising 80 million children in The UK government is able to work By providing this kind of support, UKAid all and saving 1.4 million lives. directly with other governments at the will have the most cost effective and Forthcoming increases in the UK aid highest level to build capacity and lasting impact upon the lives of poor budget offer exceptional value for develop policy. This ‘development people. 32

OPINION See how the experts fall Western societies are witnessing growing mistrust of authority, prompting radical cultural change. By Henneke Sharif One of the most striking aspects of The problem is wider than the recent Western culture is at the biggest turning recent scandalous events – from phone scandals. In 2009, when hacked emails point in its history since the hacking to MPs expenses - has been from the influential Climate Research Enlightenment. Then, the Enlightenment witnessing a series of institutions in Unit at the University of East Anglia brought the importance of rationality meltdown. This meltdown is a sign of our seemed to show widespread massaging and scientific inquiry. It introduced a culture in crisis. of climate data, public trust in the new politics and a new public realm independence of scientists took a knock. based on disinterested inquiry, and Such events raise wider questions than A decade earlier, the MMR controversy ushered in a whole new class of people, rogue personnel. They make us question provided an example of the confusion the new middle class. It is this class that institutions that are meant to fulfill a among experts, and of the public taking has, in the prevailing 200 odd years, particular role in society, acting as our matters into their own hands. morphed into the professional class that guides. And our institutions matter. Part staffs our institutions. of a post-Enlightenment settlement, The scientific community, in fact, has august bodies staffed by experts in their been quicker to recognise the gap “ We live in a time when we field are meant to be the places in which opening up between the experts and the are unclear where to look society reaches informed consensus, in public than many of the other which we decide who we are and how professions. The Public Understanding of for answers” we live. Science programme was created in part to close the gap between elite decision The concepts forged in the We live in a time when it is unclear making and the wider public, to take the Enlightenment underpin our culture where to look for answers. The result is mystery out of the process. today, they guide the way we live our that institutions that have been central lives. As the twin tenets of modern to our culture are now in some jeopardy. When Ipsos-MORI publishes its regular western culture - expertise and Catherine Fieschi, Director of the nationwide poll on Trust in the rationality, and their guardians - the cultural risk consultancy Counterpoint, Professions, it’s not just a source of professions and institutions - fall away, suggests across the west we could be prurient interest on who’s going to the we need to ask what will replace them? seeing a growing and toxic separation dogs the quickest in the public’s mind between traditional expert elites and (politicians, since you ask, followed Twitter has become the go to source for the people. She argues: “ The breakdown closely by journalists and bankers); it’s breaking news, insights about the of authority based on expertise and an early warning system, a canary giving scandals and the main players. professionalism, combined with the us important clues about the health of spectacle of apparent ineptitude flashed our culture. The poll shows that, over When MP Tom Watson momentarily across the world, has led to the shunning recent years, with a few notable glanced down at his lap during the News and ridiculing of experts and resulted in exceptions, trust in our professional International evidence session, the a vacuum of authority.” classes is steadily declining. twitterati exclaimed as one: ‘he was 34 OPINION going to tweet live updates from the incident hit UK headlines, with the Of course anyone would be a fool to try heart of the committee.’ Watson was in kidnapping of British couple the and second-guess the cultural forces fact merely looking at his lap, but the Chandlers by Somali pirates, it was a that will shape the west’s future. What excitement generated at that moment is quietly spoken Somali cab driver in we do know is that what we’ve got telling for the extent to which social Leytonstone who was instrumental in won’t do any longer. Fieschi sounds a media is being seen as a battering ram securing their release. warning that the very Enlightenment breaking down the citadel. forces that have shaped us may now be our undoing: “Societies such as ours Social media may be part of the change, “As the twin tenets of modern wedded to hierarchical institutions, but its own brand of populism is not western culture - expertise and control and closure, no matter how high without problems. Personally, I’d look to rationality, and their guardians - their growth potential, will struggle to the power of diasporas, with their the professions and institutions adapt to the new age they find network of social and political bonds themselves in.” The big question for the that reach right across national - fall away, we need to ask West now is how can we get the mix boundaries. When a major international what will replace them?” right again? bright blue @ Conservative Party Conference 2011

Conference Drink Tank 2011 An ageing society: fairness and security With Nick Boles MP for all With Penny Mordaunt MP Drink Tank is a chance to meet, network, The debate will examine how services chat, have a beer and share ideas with for older people such as pensions and Bright Blue. At the Conservative Party social care can and should be funded in Conference this year Bright Blue is proud the future, the response to the Dilnot to welcome Nick Boles MP as our guest report and the net effect on social and speaker. economic growth from higher numbers of older people. At the Conference Drink Tank, we will launch the third edition of our magazine, The Progressive Conservative, with In particular, the event seeks to investigate how older articles from Will Hutton, Ian Birrell, Sir Malcom Rifkind MP people's views are best represented in government and and Peter Tatchell. how we can best sustain and strengthen the services older people rely on, particularly for the most vulnerable. Nick Boles was elected MP for Grantham and Stamford in 2010. He is PPS to the Schools Minister Nick Gibb and sits Speakers: on the Select Committee for Political and Constitutional • Penny Mordaunt MP, Chair of the APPG on Ageing and Affairs. He set up Policy Exchange, the influential centre- Older People right think tank and in September 2010 he published his • Hannah Fearn, The Guardian first book "Which Way's Up? The future for coalition Britain • Mervyn Kohler, Age UK and how to get there". He is also a current member of the • Jane Ashcroft, Chief Executive of Anchor Bright Blue Advisory Board. • Alexandra Jezeph, Bright Blue (Chair)

Date: Date: Monday 3rd October 2011, 21.30-23.00 Tuesday 4th October 2011, 17:30-18:30 Venue: Venue: Chester Suite, Midland Hotel, Manchester Exchange 7 of Manchester Central Refreshments will be available Refreshments will be available RSVP: RSVP: Please RSVP to [email protected] Please RSVP to [email protected]

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36 THE THINKERS Religious revival Western societies are being dramatically reshaped by the strong birth rate of religious people. By Professor Eric Kaufmann We all know what western values are, or importance because ours is an epoch of at least we think we do. Secularism, religious polarisation. First came the liberalism, egalitarianism and scientific challenge of secularism and modernism. reason, for instance. But will the phrase Then came a fundamentalist backlash 'western values' have the same meaning across most major world religions. in the future as it does today? I argue that momentous population shifts and a Secular-fundamentalist polarisation crisis of mainstream religion are coming produced the 'culture wars' in America together to produce a return of religion after the 1960s, in which conservative - especially fundamentalist religion - to Catholics, Jews and Protestants moved the West. closer to each other than to their lapsed coreligionists. Religious Latinos and "Demography is not destiny, African-Americans generally vote Democrat, but opt for conservative but it is the most predictable positions on social issues like abortion. of the social sciences" When acting in concert with white In the past, people had children for religious conservatives, as with material reasons - many died young and Proposition 8 in California, they become fresh hands were needed to work the a political force. And all have a increased sharply after the horrors of land and provide for parents in their old considerable fertility edge over their World War II, and an ultra-Orthodox, age. Today we live in cities and benefit pro-choice counterparts. This explains or Haredi, community emerged, from pensions while children are why the pro-life majority in the US segregating itself from other Jews. expensive. Contraception has severed population may approach three-quarters Israel's first prime minister David Ben- the link between sex and procreation, of the total by the end of the century Gurion and the largely secular Zionist placing fertility under our control as even as Republican numbers fail to leadership assumed that the black- never before. Family size, which was budge. hatted, sidelocked Haredim were a relic once a matter of survival, is now a value of history. They gave the ultra-Orthodox choice. Seculars can choose to delay The combination of religious polarisation an exemption from the draft, subsidies having children or opt for fewer while and demographic upheaval is especially to study at yeshiva and other religious the religious - especially fundamentalists stark among Jews. They began to privileges to make sure their anti- - have them earlier and more often. secularise in large numbers in the Zionism didn't dissuade the Great Powers nineteenth century, and Orthodoxy from establishing a home for the Jews in This is known as the 'second emerged to combat this. The Palestine. In 1948, there were 400 demographic transition' and is of signal temperature of Jewish fundamentalism military exemptions, many of which 37 THE THINKERS weren't used. By 2007, that number had from the fold. Thus the ultra-Orthodox By that time, the UN projects that there soared to 55,000. use segregation to limit membership loss will be four largely religious Africans for to the mainstream society while growing every largely one secular European, Meanwhile, the fringe of ultra-Orthodox their own. In a more modest way, the compared to the situation in 1950 when pupils in Israel's Jewish primary schools same is true elsewhere. In the Muslim there were two and a half Europeans per in 1960 has ballooned: they will world, women most in favour of sharia African. comprise a third of the Jewish first law have twice the birthrates of Muslim grade class of 2012. Jerusalem has women who are most opposed. Generally these poor people are not grown noticeably more religious, with fundamentalists like the ultra-Orthodox restrictions on Saturday driving in many Europeans and Americans who report 'no Jews or neo-Calvinist Protestants, but areas. Outside Israel, work by Joshua religion' are leading the shift to below- they remain traditionally religious. Comenetz and Yaacov Wise reveals that replacement fertility. In most of Europe, the ultra-Orthodox may form a majority the nonreligious average around one of observant American and British Jews child per woman. In the United States, by 2050. they manage 1.5, considerably lower than the national 2.1. This disadvantage "97 percent of the world's is not enough to prevent religious decline in much of Europe and America population growth takes place today, but secularism must run to stand in the religious tropics while still. populations in secular East Asia and the West are aging Fertility differences will be more and would already be important in changing values in the long run, but the most noticeable short-term declining were it not shifts are occurring due to immigration for immigration" as ethnic change brings desecularisation.

The Jewish example shows that 97 percent of the world's population population change can reverse growth takes place in the religious secularism and shift the centre of tropics while populations in secular East gravity of an entire society in a Asia and the West are aging and would conservative religious direction. already be declining were it not for immigration. Birth rates are coming Notice that change has come about down in the developing world, but the because values have polarised and peak population pressure between the increasingly determine family size. They global North and South lies ahead, in also reduce the defection of children 2050. 38 THE THINKERS

The future has already arrived in major London church and you'll find that more perspective, high profile incidents like immigration gateway cities in 'secular' than 60 percent are non-white and many the murder of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Europe. Consider London. In the past others are East European immigrants. At Gogh or the banning of the burqa in twenty years, according to religious the same time, Muslim, Sikh, Hindu and France may prove to be the opening censuses, Christian attendance has other religious groups are growing. stanzas of a new epic in which religion nosedived 40 percent in England but has re-enters public life. remained steady in the capital. The net effect is a more religious London than a quarter century ago. In Paris and This is not because the swingers of Soho other European êntrepots, the same has "The pro-life majority in the have sobered up. Peer inside a typical occurred. US population may approach three-quarters of the total England in 2050 is expected to look like by the end of the century London, so it's easy to imagine a more religious England, and Europe, at the even as Republican numbers end of our century. fail to budge"

The same is true in America. If the These developments should give us United States remained 70 percent pause. Many of us believe the ethos of white, the population would reach the West in a century will more closely European levels of secularisation in two resemble the dreams of Christopher generations and Catholics would rapidly Hitchens than those of Jerry Falwell. Yet lose market share to Protestants. we forget that most people get their Instead, swift Hispanic-Catholic and religion the old-fashioned way, through religious Asian population growth is birth. projected to stabilise the share of non- religious Americans at roughly today's Demography is not destiny, but it is the levels. most predictable of the social sciences. As the population of the world peaks and Catholics, far from declining, may begins to decline later in this century, outnumber Protestants among the the strongly religious will stand against nation's youth as early as the 2040s. the tide.

As secular regions age and depopulate, In so doing, they will remake societies they will replenish their workforce with and wash away many of our certainties religious immigrants, injecting religion about secularisation, Enlightenment and back into society and politics. From this the End of History. 39 bright blue progressive > conservative visit http://brightblueonline.com