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Thailand Company Guide CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT Version 10 | Bloomberg: CPNREIT TB | Reuters: CPNREITu.BK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 28 Feb 2019 FULLY VALUED Brace for huge NAV fall Last Traded Price ( 27 Feb 2019): Bt27.00 (SET : 1,665.27) Price Target 12-mth: Bt20.50 (-24% downside) (Prev Bt22.80) Maintain FULLY-VALUED with a lower DCF-based TP of Bt20.50. We believe CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT’s Analyst (CPNREIT) current valuation is too stretched. The stock is now Chanpen SIRITHANARATTANAKUL +662 857 7824 trading way above our revised target price (TP) of Bt20.50 based [email protected] on DCF. We therefore recommend investors take profit. At the current price of Bt27.00, CPNREIT is offering 2019 dividend What’s New yield of 6.2% and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 5.1%. Note • 4Q18 results below expectations that two of CPNREIT’s major assets (CentralPlaza Rama 2 and CentralPlaza Pinklao) accounting for 53.5% of total revenue will • Announced 4Q18 DPU of Bt0.4163, representing a see their leasehold contracts expire in about six years (2024 and 103.9% payout ratio; XD on 8 Mar 2019 2025). Although we believe it’s highly likely that these contracts • Cut forecast by 4-5% in 2019-20 to reflect a more will be extended, the extensions could come with additional conservative rental reversion assumption costs. CPNREIT’s current gearing is at 31%, which is not low. Acquiring additional assets or extending lease agreements will • TP cut to Bt20.50 based on DCF certainly involve both debt and equity financing, making dilution inevitable. Investors should also brace for a potentially huge asset revaluation losses and big drop in net asset value Price Relative (NAV) in the years ahead. Where we differ. Our TP is over 20% below consensus. We believe this is due to different assumptions on rental reversions. We now assume rental reversion of 3-4% in our forecasts. Potential catalysts. Improving occupancies and rents of the malls following major and minor renovations, acquisition of new Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (Btm) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F assets, successful extension of lease contracts at CentralPlaza Gross Revenue 3,410 4,739 5,062 5,298 Rama 2 and CentralPlaza Pinklao. Net Property Inc 3,185 4,480 4,762 4,986 Total Return 1,997 3,827 3,800 4,009 Valuation: Distribution Inc 2,724 3,578 3,800 4,009 Our target price for CPNREIT is Bt20.50, based on discounted EPU (Bt) 0.90 1.73 1.72 1.81 EPU Gth (%) (37) 92 (1) 5 cash flow (DCF) valuation methodology. DPU (Bt) 1.14 1.62 1.68 1.78 DPU Gth (%) (1) 42 4 5 Key Risks to Our View: NAV per shr (Bt) 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.7 Key risks are; (i) lower-than-expected occupancy rates (OR) PE (X) 29.9 15.6 15.7 14.9 Distribution Yield (%) 4.2 6.0 6.2 6.6 and, (ii) weaker-than-expected rental rate reversion. P/NAV (x) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Aggregate Leverage (%) 31.4 31.2 31.3 31.3 At A Glance ROAE (%) 6.7 12.9 12.7 13.3 Issued Capital (m shrs) 2,212 Mkt. Cap (Btm/US$m) 59,737 / 1,899 Major Shareholders (%) Distn. Inc Chng (%): (5) (4) (5) Central Pattana 26.7 Consensus DPU (Bt): 1.52 1.60 N/A Other Broker Recs: B: 1 S: 1 H: 1 Government Savings Bank 3.1 TMB Property Income plus. 3.0 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBSVTH, Bloomberg Finance Free Float (%) 73.1 L.P 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.75 ICB Industry : Financials / Real Estate Investment Trust ed: KK/ sa: CW, CS Company Guide CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT WHAT’S NEW 4Q18 below expectations 4Q18 net investment income grew 34% y-o-y to Bt887m. This Announced 4Q18 DPU of Bt0.4163. This represents a dividend was on mainly on the back of the additional contribution from payout ratio of 103.9%. The stock will go ex-dividend on 8 the two assets acquired in 4Q17 (CentralFestival Pattaya Beach March and dividend payment will be made on 25 March. mall and Hilton Pattaya Hotel) entirely via debt financing. NAV of Bt13.55 per share. CPNREIT reported NAV of … but eased 4% q-o-q. This was due mainly to; (i) the 52% Bt29.9bn, or Bt13.55 per share as at end-4Q18. jump in selling and administrative expenses (mainly advertising and promotions) towards the end of the year, (ii) the 16% surge Gearing was 30.9% at end-2018. On 8 Feb 2019, CPNREIT in finance costs as CPNREIT issued Bt10bn debentures to issued two more tranches of debentures totalling Bt4.5bn. refinance its loans from banks. The interest rates on the Proceeds were used to repay bank loans. Following these loan debentures were higher than interest rates on bank loans. repayments, CPNREIT now has four tranches of debentures totalling Bt14.5bn. These debentures have various tenures 2018 net investment income grew 31% y-o-y to Bt3.6bn. This from 2-10 years and carry an average interest rate of 3.3%. was on mainly on the back of the additional contribution from the two assets acquired in 4Q17 (CentralFestival Pattaya Beach OUTLOOK mall and Hilton Pattaya Hotel) entirely via debt financing. Lease expiry profile. In 2019, a number of lease contracts occupying 38% of total net leasable area (NLA) will expire and Average occupancy rate of its malls was 94.9% at end- 4Q18. be up for contract renewals. These include CentralPlaza Rama This was up from 91.0% at end-4Q17 and 94.2% at end-3Q18, 2 (30% of leased area), CentralPlaza Rama 3 (35%), following the re-opening of CentralPlaza Rama 3 on 9 August CentralPlaza Pinklao (42%), Central Pinklao Office Tower A&B 2018 after the completion of major renovations. Occupancy (41%), CentralPlaza Chiangmai Airport (38%) and rate at CentralPlaza Rama 3 improved from 93.6% at end-3Q18 CentralPlaza Pattaya Beach (54%). Management expects to 94.3% at end-4Q18. rental reversion of about 3-4%. Occupancy rate at Hilton Pattaya Hotel eased to 91.1% at end- Land sublease extension at CentralPlaza Rama 2 to be finalised 4Q18, vs 94.2% at end-3Q18. This was due to the sharp drop within a year. Note that its land sublease agreement at in Chinese tourists’ arrivals to Thailand, which also negatively CentralPlaza Rama 2 will end in August 2025, or in just 6.5 affected Hilton Pattaya. years. Central Pattana (CPN) has already managed to have its lease contracts extended for 30 years. It is planning to extend Rental reversion deteriorating. In 2018, CPNREIT the sublease agreement with CPNREIT this year but the terms renewed/signed 850 new contracts, occupying 86,110 sqm or and conditions have yet to be finalised. Both CPN and 36.5% of net leasable area with an average rental reversion of CPNREIT are trying to come with the best payment terms that +3%. On a quarterly basis, rental reversion has been on a would minimise the effects on CPNREIT’s short term declining trend from +4.9% in 1Q18 to +3.6% in 2Q18, +2.2% distribution per unit (DPU). Note that CentralPlaza Rama 2 in 3Q18, and +1.0% in 4Q18. contributed 28.8% of CPNREIT’s revenue in 2018. Asset revaluation gains of Bt242.8m in 2018. In 2018, CPNREIT Lease contract at CentralPlaza Pinklao to expire in 5.8 years. recorded Bt242.8m net unrealised gains from asset revaluation. The land belongs to Central Group, so we believe CPNREIT’s These comprised unrealized gains at CentralPlaza Rama 3 chances of getting a lease extension are high. However, the (+Bt1,470m), CentralPlaza Pinklao (+Bt62m), CentralPlaza lease extension will come with costs. CPNREIT will need to pay Chiangmai Airport (+Bt153m), and unrealized losses at for the lease extension based on the appraised value of the CentralPlaza Rama 2 (-Bt286m), CentralFestival Pattaya Beach assets at that time, plus negotiations. CentralPlaza Pinklao mall (-Bt867m), and Hilton Pattaya hotel (-289m). The contributed 24.7% total CPNREIT’s total revenue in 2018 unrealised gain (losses) were non-cash items, and have no (20.8% for Pinklao mall and 3.9% for Pinklao office tower impact on dividend payment. A&B). Page 2 Company Guide CPN Retail Growth Leasehold REIT Brace for big NAV fall in upcoming years. As at end 2018, the RECOMMENDATION appraised value for CentralPlaza Rama II was Bt6,962m and CentralPlaza Pinklao was Bt5,678m. As we are getting closer Maintain FULLY VALUED. CPNREIT now offers a decent 2019 to the end of their leasehold lives in 2024-25, we could see dividend yield of 6.2% at the current price and an IRR of huge asset revaluation losses and a big NAV fall from these 5.1%. We maintain our FULLY VALUED rating with a lower two assets in the years ahead. Gearing could automatically rise DCF-based TP of Bt20.50. The low DCF valuation reflects a as value of total assets drops. more conservative rental reversion assumption of 3-4% (vs 3- 5% earlier) and the short remaining leasehold lives of two Potential acquisition of other assets from CPN. CPNREIT is also major assets - CentralPlaza Rama 2 and Pinklao - that looking to acquire other assets from CPN. Note that CPN now contribute more than 50% of CPNREIT’s total revenue.
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    The Evoluation of Thai Theatre in Bangkok Between 1782-19351

    THE EVOLUATION OF THAI THEATRE IN BANGKOK BETWEEN 1 1782-1935 • Surapone Virulrak2 Introduction The study of Thai theatre has always been The Early Period separated into independent issues focus­ sing upon narrow and indepth areas. This The Sukhothai Period (1238-1350) saw the research intends to investigate the various appearance of rabam, ram, and ten. They elements that contributed to the develop­ are mentioned in the stone relics and ment of Thai theatre from a broad literature of the period. Today these words perspective. mean group dance, dance with hand movements and dance with steps Thai theatre is deeply rooted in song, dance respectively. They indicate that the Thai and music. It has both a ritualistic and people have developed dance as an art to entertainment function. These functions the point that it can be divided into three reflect the Thai way of life which is based special kinds. It is a traditional belief that primarily upon the agarian cycle where kan fen pleng or balad singing also most activities occur during the dry season. appeared during this period. Animist, Hindu and Buddhist rites require certain kinds of performing arts as a means of communication with man or with The Early Ayuddhya Period (1350-1456) gods.Social gatherings also needs the saw many kinds of dance and theatre. performing arts as a means of interaction They were chak nak dukdamban, kan la/en and enjoyment. Thus, song dance and kong luang, nang and rabam. Chak nak music have always been important parts of dukdamban was the enactment of a Hindu Thai culture since ancient times.
  • Guide to Parliament

    Guide to Parliament

    Guide to Parliament Subject : Guide to Parliament First Published : 2008 Number of Pages : 24 Number of Copies : 500 Translated and Published by : English Division, Bureau of Foreign Languages Secretariat of the House of Representatives Tel. 0 2 357 3100 ext 3145 Fax. 0 2 357 3100 ext 3145 Website. www.parliament.go.th Printed by : Bureau of Printing Services, Secretariat of the House of Representatives Thai Military Bank Building, Thanon Phaya Thai, Khwaeng Thung Phaya Thai, Khet Ratchthewi, Bangkok, 10400 Tel. 0 2644 5305 Preface The book titled, “Guide to Parliament” has been translated by English Division, Bureau of Foreign Language from the Thai version published by the Division of Information, Bureau of Public Relation, the Secretariat of the House of Representatives. Objectives of English publication are to provide general public an introduction to the Parliament of Thailand. The history of the Parliament and other important places, paintings as well as sculptures inside the Parliament is described in this book. The Bureau of Foreign Languages is highly convinced that the book titled, “Guide to Parliament” will be of considerable benefits to visitors and general public who are cordially welcome during their visit to the Parliament. Assoc.Prof. Pornsom Sirisambandh Director of Bureau of Foreign Languages Secretariat of the House of Representatives Contents History of the National Assembly of Thailand 1 Introduction to important places and interesting attractions in the Parliament The Royal Statue of King Prajadhipok 3 Museum of the Thai National Assembly 4 Parliamentary Buildings 5 The Assembly Hall 9 Paintings and Sculptures 19 The Stone Sculptures around 23 the Parliamentary Building 1 - 1 - History of the National Assembly of Thailand The National Assembly, or the Parliament, of Thailand is the main institution in the democratic government of the country, with His Majesty the King as the Head of State.
  • Towards Sustainable Center of Life

    Towards Sustainable Center of Life

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